Author Archives: hunterstokes21
MLB Reports Is Picking A Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton HR Derby Final
Jeff Roberson AP Photo
Yeah, quite a prognostication I know, but we have picked perfectly in HR Derby*s the last three years we have put out predictions.
For the record here are the Odds For The EVENT (Courtesy of betdsi.com)
- Aaron Judge +150
- Giancarlo Stanton +180
- Cody Bellinger +400
- Miguel Sano +1300
- Justin Bour +1500
- Mike Moustakas +1700
- Gary Sanchez +1900
- Charlie Blackmon +2200
The big boys are just in a class of power of their own in Judge and Stanton…
We will put down $180 on Judge (pays $450) and $165 on Stanton (pays $462). If either one wins that will be at least $105 profit on the board with $345 in bets.
If it were a different venue than Marlins Park, perhaps we would give some of the other guys a shot, but this park is spacious.
Whatever happens tonight can there please be irreversible damage to the HR monstrous celebration organism that pops up after Marlins jacks!!
DraftKings DFS Lineups For Apr 2, 2017
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner)
Follow @stokes_Hunter21 @mlbreports
One of the biggest blunders made by many gamblers is betting against themselves. We are going to simplify the process, so if you win, you can really win – none of this barely break even nonsense.
Our new Draft Strategy is now here. Please read after the post.
With a limited schedule for both Sunday Apr 2, 2017 & Monday Apr 3, 2017 – we are running some light DFS lineups, but will really ramp it up beginning Tuesday Apr 4, 2017.
Now here is what we are going to do for today’s MLB DFS Draft Kings style.
At first glance you may say to use Chris Archer vs the Yankees – as he usually has a sparkling home ERA, however the BVP numbers suggest he could be hit well by the Pinstipers.
Jacoby Ellsbury kills him (19 – 34, .449 BA- 1.370 OPS) and with 3 games to pick from, we are going to stack the Yankees and the Cubs. Our pitchers will be Masahiro Tanaka and Madison Bumgarner.
Read the rest of this entry
Atlantis Casino Wagers For 2017 MLB Win Totals
The old adage here is ‘you want to know the truth, follow the money.
We have been talking projections for win totals in the upcoming MLB Year on a all offseason basis here at the MLB Reports. While we agreed a lot with the fangraphs.com prognostications, we had a problem with Baseball Prospectis’s PECOTA System yet again.
In the 1st total listed below are the official Win/Loss Over/Unders For All 30 MLB Clubs posted by Atlantis Casino.
We have to say that they pretty much mirrored what we have on the board for our projections.
Casino’s have a vested interest since it will cost them serious money if there are poor predictions.
In the last week, we have seen the Royals ink Travis Wood, but more importantly Alex Reyes was lost for the season by the Cardinals due to his upcoming Tommy John Surgery. Read the rest of this entry
5 MLB Teams That Could Be Real Contenders – Or Real Pretenders In 2017
Each year we are enlightened to a few surprises in the MLB we were not expecting. This year there are 5 teams that seem could flip either way based on the talent coming to fruition.
We tried to pick a club for each Division here, but simply couldn’t come out with a AL Central team.
Tampa Bay Rays:
With Alex Cobb potentially coming back healthy to the rotation that features Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi already. the Rays will have decent chuckers to start this campaign.
Add Blake Snell, Matt Andriese and recently acquired Jose DeLeon (who should contribute quality innings this campaign and all of a sudden this club doesn’t look too shabby for depth.
The Relief Core is also solid if Brad Boxberger can reclaim his form, and see a similar year for Alex Colome.
Evan Longoria, and Brad Miller both put forth 30 HR seasons in 2016, and Matt Duffy may prove to be a decent Batting Average guy at Shortstop now.
The Rays Outfield will feature Kevin keirmaier, Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza, while one of those guys may also see some time at Designated Hitter. Read the rest of this entry
Projected Win Totals In 2017 By Other Sites: Good Job Fangraphs – Bad Job Baseball Prospectus
The O’s have averaged 89 wins per year since 2012, but the folks at Baseball Prospectus are throwing down a projection of 73 wins in 2017 for Baltimore?? That wasn’t even the biggest disparity from our picks..
The MLB Reports is not composed of several writers or analysts. We have about a half a dozen participants who account for 90% of the content featured on our website.
From the time I joined the website in late 2013, we have had a nice track record of projections. That is not to say we are perfect.
If all of us could predict the future – we would be sipping alcohol on rooftops of the hotels in Las Vegas counting our cabbage.
One thing we are going to do is have an opinion when and where we see fit.
Fangraphs has done an exceptional job in their forecasting. I agree with 87 – 90% of their team placements on their team win projections and Division standings.
2017 MLB Regular Season Player Prop Bet Odds Part 1
On this list of player over/unders it may be worth a well solution to wager over on all bets across the board and go for about a 60 percent win factor. I did bet a few unders on the sheet towards the end. I continue to find value on the whole gambling aspect of listed odds. I will throw down some more money on these selections. I am just hoping that I don’t become too over-confident for my own good.
With less than 2 months until the regular season begins, we are starting to see some prop bets show up online and in Las Vegas.
Come back by the start of March to see Over/Under wins for all 30 MLB clubs, and also when they decide to implement individual player prop bets.
With so many MVP candidates and Cy Young type pitchers, we are favoring Over a lot more than Under yet again in 2017.
We compiled a 6 – 0 individual player bet prop record, and were not so hot on these props listed, but we still managed a .500 record even for those.
part 2 will be at the end of February.. Read the rest of this entry
Odds To Win The 2017 MLB League Pennants: You Will Never Guess Who May Have The Best Value
No teams in the AL would be favored against the Cubs should they face the reigning Champs, so it may be easier to bet them just to win the AL Pennant.
There is a reason why these odds value favorites are not any real difference for the Odds To Win The World Series and these will be any different.
Basically, you could just go ahead with a World Series bet for anyone you think that can win the Title, and then simply hedge when it comes to the Fall Classic.
I always say that MLB Power Rankings should have a lot to do with odds to win any type of Division, League Pennant or World Series.
The 1st thing that jumped out to me here was that the LA Angels are at 35/1 for the Junior Circuit. Should they face any of the Senior Circuit’s top clubs, they would probably all be +150 underdogs.
If you were to pick the Angels at +3500, and then parlay that into a +150 wager in the World Series, than the overall odd shoots +8750 rather than the +7500.
Personally, the Angels have had a great winter to shore up the defense – and have addressed a few roster spots with a deeper bench.
Is it that foreign to think that the Los Angeles Angels could jump out quickly if Mike Trout can carry them?
In their 1st 60 games of the season, the Halo’s effectively miss the Indians and Red Sox on the docket, and only have to play 3 games versus the Tigers as well. Yes, they play a huge chunk of their games vs the AL West, but they have improved against all of the clubs as of right now. Mike Scioscia’s squad gets to play 4 games at Tampa – and 4 games vs the Twins, 3 vs Toronto and Atlanta at home, with 3 at KC and Miami. Did I mention they play the A’s 10 times in their 1st 60 contests as well? I could see them with 34 or 36 wins at the 60 game mark In an exhausting stretch from Apr 3, to May 15, the team also plays 43 games in 46 nights, with 20 of them at home, but that is a great itinerary to kick off the campaign.
Lets say they are 8 or 10 games over at that point, I could actually see the organization spending a little bit more money in the 2nd half to acquire talent.
Also if they can withstand until Albert Pujols gets back healthy everyday as the permanent DH.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the Astros, M’s and Rangers still better for the Division, but the gap is not that much….Particularly if the Astros don’t add a Starting Pitcher, the Mariners don’t add a slugging First Baseman, and Texas is hesitant to spend more money on payroll.
The Angels did win 98 Games in 2014 and 85 games in 2015, before receding to 74 victories last campaign.
Mike Trout is due for one of those just carry the club on his back seasons, (not that he hasn’t been awesome individually in that time span.
If the Cubs make the World Series, than only the Boston Red Sox or Cleveland Indians may even come close to an even match for an opponent, with the reigning champs still holding a distinct advantage.
Boston’s +270 is a brutal look at an odd for the AL. I am not infatuated with the odd of +600 for the World Series either. They play in a tough AL East where all 5 teams could compete.
Both the Indians and Astros are fairly pitted for their odds towards the AL Pennant.
Texas continues to be the oddball 2nd favorite in the AL West despite having a poor winter thus far.
News that they will probably sign Mike Napoli should buoy some spirits, and I am willing to acknowledge that when it happens, yet I feel they still need more.
If the Rangers also swing a Jurickson Profar for a Tampa Bay starter like Jake Odorizzi, then I could par them up with Houston. As of right now, they are two players short.
I still love the odds for the Nationals even though I wish they wouldn’t have come to near Spring Training without a proven Closer.
The more we draw near to the regular season, the less I like the Yankees too in 2017. They are going to be way too dependent on Gary Sanchez setting the world on fire to contend in my opinion.
New York’s rotation does not instill confidence despite having a lock down Relief Core. Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are in their mid 30’s now – where the speed doesn’t play as good.
Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius clubbed 20 HRs each in 2016, but so did 116 other players last campaign.
These guys never walk either with OBP’s of .300 and .304 respectivelY. Chase Headley is average at best.
For the Bronx Bombers to duplicate even their 84 win season last year, I think Sanchez will have to destroy 40 – 50 Jacks into the seats.
Detroit has better Starting pitching and a world-class offense compared to the Pinstripers, yet are behind them in the odds?
Speaking of Detroit. For being the 2nd favorite team in the AL Central, they possess the 6th place odd out of all 2nd place listed clubs.
The Tigers can beat up the White Sox and Twins all years, and the Royals are all of a sudden not looking as good either, I am all over the Motown Boys.
St. Louis, for the record, are the 5th out of 6th 2nd place listed odds, and are fully valued at +1250.
The Cubs are the cream of the crop, but wagering the club for +180 is not worth it. You are better off wagering them to win the Fall Classic at +370 instead.
There is no AL team that Chicago would be an underdog against. Having said that, the money is not there to plunk down any cabbage for this.
I only wish you could bet the field in the NL vs the Cubs. The Dodgers are also not a good at +435, mostly because Chicago sits in their path.
If I were to bet the Mets ever to win the NL Pennant, it would be in the mid season when I could see their rotation in action and remain healthy.
Odds To Win The American League
Blue Bold Means Good Vale with #value confidence in parenthesis
Maroon Bold Means Bad Vale with # value confidence in parenthesis
Boston Red Sox +270 (3)
Cleveland Indians +445
Houston Astros +680
Texas Rangers +900 (1)
Toronto Blue Jays +960 (3)
Seattle Mariners +1250
NY Yankees +1350 (2)
Detroit Tigers +1550 (5)
Baltimore O’s +1550
KC Royals +1850
LA Angels +3500 (1)
TB Rays +3700
Oakland A’s +7000
Minnesota Twins +7000
Chicago White Sox +7000
Odds To Win The Nationals League
Chicago Cubs +180 (5)
Dodgers +435 (4)
Washington Nationals +600 (2)
NY Mets +735
SF Giants +740
St.Louis Cardinals +1250 (4)
Colorado Rockies +2400
Pittsburgh Pirates +2400
Miami Marlins +3800
Arizona D’Backs +5000
Philadelphia Phillies +6000
Cincinnati Reds +7500
Atlanta Braves +9000
Milwaukee Brewers +10000
SD Padres +10000
Follow @stokes_Hunter21 @mlbreports
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
A big thanks goes out to our ‘Chief Writer/Part Owner’ Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured post.
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Odds To Win The 2017 MLB Divisions
It is coming to that time where we all start making our predictions, and also plunk down more cabbage on the yearly bets. The 1st week of the February usually will come out with Player Prop Bets, and Teams Win Totals of Over and Under.
I don’t need to remind our long term readers that we have excelled in this foray since the beginning of introducing Gambling 101 as a category to mlbreports.com.
We look to continue our 70% best bet percentage. I am looking to bounce back in the regular season in particularly as I made up the most of the money in player props, HR Derby and World Series Odds.
Today we are focusing on the MLB Divisions.
The AL East is the strongest Division in the game as 4 clubs are at least half decent. and even Tampa Bay is not that bad. Read the rest of this entry
The Tampa Bay Rays Should Play 3 Series A Year In Montreal Right Now
Tropicana Field is regarded as the 2nd worst facility in the Major Leagues next to the o.co in Oakland. The Rays are always in the bottom 2 for attendance in the ML and simply can’t draw much more than that – even though they had 6 straight 80 win seasons from 2008 – 2013. With 4 other clubs in their Division all spending double to triple the amount of money on payroll as them, it will not get better for the clubs finances any time soon. They are locked in a lease deal until 2027. Why not play some of their games at Olympic Stadium in Montreal in the meantime?
With horrible attendance each year, coupled with the recent success of exhibition games at Olympic Stadium over the last few years, along with the stadium issue sill being prominent in the area, the Rays should host 9 – 10 games in Montreal, QC, Canada.
My idea would be to have one series in the French Province against the Jays, one against the Boston Red Sox and also one set of games versus the Yankees.
Considering the amount of traveling fans from these 3 AL East contending clubs, I would think the contests would be well attended.
This schedule would still allow the Tampa Bay Rays to hold 2 other series in St. Petersburg versus all 3 clubs.
With the 19 Games a year versus Division rivals, this is a good way to have the Rays also not create team fatigue within their home dates. Read the rest of this entry
Odds To Win The 2017 MLB World Series:
Last time we did these odds we talked more about why clubs should be wagered on, and now I will explain how we listed our top 5 bad value bets.
The New York Yankees head the category for this one. There is no rhyme or reason this club should be parallel with their crosstown rivals the Mets – and ahead of the Cardinals, Rangers or Mariners for their odd.
Quite simply, the club is not as good as those other squads right now. The direction of the organization to the youth movement may change that scenario in the near future – however can you really bank on any of their Starting Pitchers in a playoff series?
Also if you have the Blue Jays and Red Sox already ahead of you on the list, a lot of other 2nd place clubs in each of the other Divisions may hav a better leg up on you to snare the 2nd Wild Card Spot.
I like the Detroit Tigers as more of a chance to make the playoffs the Bronx Bombers in 2017. I will say that if they are in contention, that the money is always there to acquire guys midway through the year (hopefully all on expiring contracts.) Read the rest of this entry
MLB Power Rankings: Early Win Predictions In 2017
Last Updated: Jan 24, 2017
Over the last week we have seen some factors that have changed some win totals and rankings. Unfortunately the saddening loss of Yordano Ventura will cause the Royals to lose a win or 2.
We saw Jose Bautista re-sign with the Jays, Mark Trumbo re-sign with the O’s and the Phillies sign Michael Saunders. These are significant signings for the 1st 2 – and Saunders becomes one of Phlladelphia’s best clubs.
The Marlins also traded for Dan Straily.
For the MLB Rankings, we are also factoring in the World Series chances of each club.
It is important to also recognize the 300 games of the MLB Interleague. The American League holds a 13 year winning streak, and adds to their victories in the year.
So far in 2017, we have the Junior Circuit registering a record of 167 – 133 vs the Senior Circuit. Before you throw stones at me – it was exactly this record that the AL hung vs the NL in 2015.
Going back to Kansas City….I really hope I am wrong about their pending 2017 record. Hopefully they also go and sign a Jason Gammel or Doug Fister to help the rotation.
Lets also hope that we don’t have any more deaths have to be figure out where we have teams wins at. It is awful. I hate using the Miami Marlins win total as a struggle to grip with the loss of Jose Fernandez. Read the rest of this entry
Extra Base Hits (The Underrated Baseball Statistic): Active Top 10 MLB Leaders
| Rank | Player (age 2017, seasons) | Extra Base Hits |
|---|
(1) Albert Pujols, LAA – (37, 16) – 1209
(2) Adrian Beltre, TEX – (38, 19) – 1072
(3) Carlos Beltran, HOU – (40, 19) – 1035
(4) Miguel Cabrera, DET – (34, 14) – 986
(5) Robinson Cano, SEA – (34, 12) – 790
(6) Matt Holliday, NYY – (37, 13) – 775
(7) Adrian Gonzalez, LAD – (35, 13) – 735
(8) Chase Utley, Free Agent – 38, 14) – 684
(9) Ryan Howard, Free Agent -(37, 13) – 680
(10) Curtis Granderson, NYM (36, 13) – 665 Read the rest of this entry
Top 5 Projected Holds Leaders For The MLB In 2017
It is one of the harder stats to predict every year, and we are talking about the category of Holds. Last season the New York Yankees disrupted the flow of the entire landscape.
Since the New York club traded both Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, this affected the chances of Dellin Betances winning the year, with him moving to Closer.
Miller himself finished 2nd in the Majors having worked setup for Chapman – and then predominantly clearing the deck for Indians Closer Cody Allen.
Falling into the same atmosphere was perennial winner Tony Watson coming into the 9th inning role once Mark Melancon was dealt to the Washington Nationals. Read the rest of this entry
Top 5 Projected Save Leaders For The MLB In 2017
Aroldis Chapman appeared in 31 Games for the Yankees in 2016, holding 20 Saves and a crisp 2l01 ERA and WHIP of .867. This was done in just over 3 months. With the Yankees kickstarting him up from Spring Training, and without the aid of Andrew Miller as a fallback option, I expect the flamethrowing southpaw to have one of his best seasons ever out of the pen in 2017.
What a scene it will be at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW in he District today where Aroldis Chapman and Joe Maddon will reunite to celebrate their 2016 World Series Championship.
The big Lefty Cuban should be the favorite to win the 2017 Saves Title for the entire MLB. It is not that the Yankees will lead the league in wins – heck they may finish 4th in the AL East. I just believe that with the pop gun offense (say for Gary Sanchez) that the victories will all be closely contested.
I highly thought of Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel for this honor as well, however I like their managers to give them the odd day off ans Save Opportunities.
As of today, we have the Cubs nearing the 100 in plateau again, but just like the aforementioned players above, I think Maddon will use several guys to register Saves for Chicago in 2017 – like Wade Davis, Hector Rondon and Carl Edwards JR.
The reigning World Series Champs are also a lot more prone to blow out teams in a weakened National League where 6 clubs may lose 90 Games or more.
For the sake of preserving arms and fatigue, I would also not be surprised to see a few more SVO’s going to Andrew Miller in lieu of Cody Allen for the AL Pennant winners Cleveland.
(RELATED – Top 5 Home Runs Hitters Projected For The MLB in 2017) Read the rest of this entry
MLB Teams Taking A Powder In 2017 So Far
Some MLB Teams have had a tough winter so far, and we take a look at why this is. We understand that not all clubs have to be in win mode, and some maybe rebuilding, however the process and mindset is what we are questioning here. For a team that is not going all in and should be based on their limited window of winning opportunity, we also call them to the carpet. Stop taking a powder in 2017 and give your head a shake!
MLB Teams Taking A Powder In 2017 So Far
There are certain clubs who have done a nice job improving their clubs year over year, some that have done nicely in maintaining, well, and there are teams that are not looking so hot in 2017.
Let me also qualify this in saying that the Toronto Blue Jays are dangerously close to falling into this pegging themselves. You guys can’t seriously think that you can enter into the 2017 campaign with the Outfield trio of Melvin Upton Jr., Kevin Pillar and Ezequiel Carrera can you?
Give Jose Bautista a 1 Year Deal worth $15 MIL – with a 2nd year Team Option of $19.4 MIL – or a Buyout Clause of $2.2 MIL The Player could also opt out if he wants to after 2017. You may risk losing a Draft Pick at all with the way this is going Toronto.
With the 1st ED pick attached to Joey Bats. and the looming future QO’s never receiving as much again, how could a team justify losing that high of Amateur Draft Selection for an aging 36 year old slugger.
Here is the thing though Blue Jays brass: You need him..Both at the turnstiles and in the lineup. He doesn’t cost you anything but money – and the guy still carried out a .815 OPS despite a rough down year.
With a chip on his shoulder, I think he will bounce back big time. You can defensive replace him every night if you wish, or use Kendrys Morales at First, and let Justin Smoak ride pine for some DH AB to open up for Bautista.
Losing Edwin Encarnacion, Bautista and Michael Saunders is not made up by Morales and Steve Pearce fellas! You drew 3.4 Million Fans in 2016. Toronto will keep the faith if you bring back #19 for one more year. Read the rest of this entry
Odds To Win The 2017 MLB World Series: Detroit + Seattle Best Value Right Now
I have been preaching the Mariners as a bet for a couple of months now. I was able to grab them at +2800 for a $50 bet already, and this was my 2nd bet to the $100 I plunked down on the Nationals at +1200.
Jerry DiPoto has been wheeling and dealing to the tune of 11 trades already this offseason.
With the exception of the Outfield not possessing not much power (but a ton of speed that could round out the bottom of the order with SB), and the First Base position being manned by unproven commodities, the rest of the roster is pretty solid.
We noted that the Mariners threesome of Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano and Jean Segura combined for 99 HRs and then the prime DH Nelson Cruz clubbed 43 Bolts. These guys will make up enough power to compensate for that.
While I still feel they should upgrade at 1B or another OF (Guys such as Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter or Mike Napoli) this team should have enough offense to compete in the American League.
With acquiring Yovani Gallardo and Drew Smyly in the last week, the club has added depth = and have the best 1 – 5 rotation in the AL West now.
I believe that James Paxton may also see a breakout season similar to what Danny Duffy did for the Kansas City Royals in 2916. The LHP can reach 98 – 99 MPH on his fastball, and he has great movement.
The Relief Core has also been added to with great numbers. Seattle’s brass has definitely robbed the Minor League System, yet this is the window of winning.
Houston deserves to be slightly favored in the AL West with the rosters as currently constructed – however if the Mariners pick up another big bat then I would give the nod to them as the Division favorite. Read the rest of this entry
Odds To Win The 2017 MLB World Series
Edwin Encarnacion would be just what the doctor ordered for the Indians lineup. A guy that can mash big Homers, drive in plenty of runs. This contract is so awesome for the timing of it all as the team could absorb the $20 MIL guaranteed AAV for the next 3 years. EE will turn 34 on Jan 07, 2017, and is coming off a year where he slashed .263/.357/.529 – with 42 HRs and a league leading 127 RBI.He is a significant upgrade over the departed Mike Napoli. His power will elevate the Cleveland lineup for the next 3 seasons at least.
The Indians were our 4th best bet of the week last Friday at +1000 to win the Fall Classic in 2017. Now with the Edwin Encarnacion contract signing, the club has jumped to +700. We have just stated in a recent article today that they should not be below the Red Sox for odds to win the title next year.
Handicappers at the top of their profession always use the Strength of Schedule in their opinions, and with good reason. One could go either way in dealing with the rosters of the Red Sox and Indians, but the biggest difference are the 76 Divisional games the Tribe plays against the Royals, Tigers, Twins and White Sox, where Boston must play the Jays, yankees,O’s and Raus 76 times.
It is also the biggest reason the Nationals will likely stay as our favorite value on the board all off season. The Mets are about the only real competition in the NL East that may provide a hindrance for the Washington franchise to reel in their 2nd straight NL East title. Then it is – do you really think the Cubs should be a 3/1 odd favorite against the Nats in a NLCS matchup – no way.
We also love the Cardinals continuing to be a thorn in Chicago’s side for the 2017 year. St. Louis was a 100 win club in 2015, and fought many nagging injuries in 2016. Now they have a lot more healthy coming back in 2017, and a full year of Alex Reyes. The Red Birds also signed Dexter Fowler away from the Cubs. +2000 is about a 6/1 odd from the oddsmakers for the Cards to win the NL Central. Read the rest of this entry
The Cleveland Indians Should Be The Favorite In The AL For 2017 With Encarnacion Signing
Cleveland was one inning away from winning the World Series in 2017, knocked out the Boston Red Sox (who are the odds favorite in the AL currently) and have now added slugger Edwin Encarnacion to their lineup for 2017. Cleveland will also see AL MVP candidate Michael Brantley back to the roster for a full healthy year = after playing the majority of 2016 without his services. A great Pitching Staff, all around defense, combined with a well adjusted lineup, and cupcake Division to play in – and the Tribe should be the favorite to win the AL Pennant next campaign and not the Red Sox.
With the news that Edwin Encarnacion signing a 3 Year Deal Worth $55 MIL< and a Team Option for a 4th season that is $25 MIL – or a $5 MIL Buyout, the Indians have put themselves back into the lead as the favorite in the Junior Circuit.
So far, the oddsmakers don’t agree with that last statement, as the Red Sox are currently +475 to win the World Series – while Cleveland is listed at +700 to win the Fall Classic, but lets look at what Cleveland has going for it.
Michael Brantley is coming back (potentially fully healthy, and was a legitimate AL MVP candidate in 2014 and 2015. Now to have him as a 3/4 tandem with EE, you are talking about a great heart of the lineup.
Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor are full value to kickstart the offense. Both guys are capable of playing all world ALL – Star campaigns upcoming.
Carlos Santana had a career year for HRs (34) RBI (87) OPS (.865) and will still bring in his 100 Walks a year.
Jose Ramirez can hit 6th for me any time. Tyler Naquin held an .886 OPS in half a years worth AB en route to finishing 3rd in Rookie Of The Year Voting.
The club can fend enough offense in RF a Catcher to hit 8th and 9th. Read the rest of this entry
Odds To Win The 2017 MLB World Series
Jon Durr/Getty Images North America
With the Chris Sale deal the Red Sox went fro co-favorites with the Indians t0 near the Cubs stratosphere for overwhelming odds on winners to take home the League Pennants in either league.
While I have no issue with these two squads holding the edge against the rest of the pack, it is just not that much of a discrepancy.
One may argue that the Nationals path of resistance is actually a lot easier than the Cubs for the Division.
The Mets Starting Pitching is suspect for health reasons, and there are holes all around the positional lineup when it comes to lack of a Centerfielder. and 3 men in the Infield who could suffer back injuries all year.
Here is the funny thing though. the Mets still made the WildCard play in game in 2016 despite all of the turmoil that presented itself.
Miami has taken a setback with the tragic loss of Jose Fernandez. This will be felt in the standings in my opinion.
The biggest X factor is if Giancarlo Stanton could remain healthy for 145 Games, but odds dictate he will not, therefore this Division should be beat up pretty bad by the Nats and Mets.
Atlanta and Philly are just a year away from solidly competing. Read the rest of this entry
Early 2017 MLB Team Win Projections
Having a great offsesson despite David Ortiz retiring. Are the deepest all around team in the American League, with the greatest collection of veterans and young players. The biggest other move in the Division so far was the Yankees signing Aroldis Chapman, and that may just help the Bombers stay above .500 – and have a chance to compete.
Following the recent Winter Meetings, the new CBA being signed. and then the subsequent few weeks after, the projections are win totals based on the teams if over/unders were to be placed.
From the onset. the Boston Red Sox are the clear favorite in the AL East – with adding Chris Sale, Mitch Moreland, Tyler Thornburg to their ALL – Star cast, while David Ortiz (retired), Travis Shaw (traded) Koji Uehara (Signed with the Cubs), Brad Ziegler (Free Agent) are off the postseason roster that lost to the Tribe.
The players going back to the White Sox were not from the Major League Roster for the most part.
With the Jays having Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders. R. A. Dickey, Brett Cecil off the 25 man roster, to replacing with Kendrys Morales and Steve Pearce for the most part as main transactions. this is a far cry from an even trade. However the club will still likely make some more moves.
Cleveland stands to benefit for the rest of the division all seeming to rebuild. but the Tigers have only dealt Cameron Maybin away – so they are sitting on the cusp of challenging for the AL Central again. Detroit may want to explore going for it one more year based on what the Royals have done, and the fact the White Sox and Twins might be the worst clubs in the Junior Circuit.
Houston has been super progressive with signing Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran as Free Agents, while also flipping for Brian McCann. This was a squad that started 7 – 17,before reeling off a nice 77 – 62 mark down the stretch to fall just short of the playoff bar.
Seattle is also positioning themselves upward just by how bad the Rangers have fared this winter. Not only that, but they added strength to their worst 2 weaknesses in adding Jean Segura at SS. and Carlos Ruiz as a viable backup Catcher. Read the rest of this entry
Once Again: Why The MLB Should Consider A Geographical/Market Size Re-Alignment For The Next CBA:
The new CBA has been a godsend for the mid – market teams, and not so great for the 10 top markets, but even more devastating for the 10 lowest markets. One thing the CBA did address was to give the players an additional 4 days off during the league year – stretching from 183 Days to 187 – in lieu of expanding the rosters of 25 to 26.
This website has continued its stance since day 1, that while the economics have been a lot more fair to teams in the last 15 years, there is still much work to do. The best small market teams we have seen in the last 7 years have been the Oakland A’s, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates and of course the 2015 World Series winning Kansas City Royals. Only one of these teams actually were a decent franchise for some time before they took off.
Pittsburgh lost for 22 years before they finally made 3 straight postseason appearances. With the new CBA not giving them 1st RD Draft Picks for departing players in future seasons like Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marter and Gerrit Cole, this is a sure fire way for the brass to cut the cord on their service team a lot of time ahead of them hitting Free Agency.
Kansas City was a laughable organization from the mid 90’s to 2013 as well, and despite winning back to back pennants in the AL< and being the first small market team to win the World Series since the 2003 Marlins, they will soon start to see their team ripped apart under the same Free Agent terms like the Bucs – with Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Danny Duffy and Mike Moustakas likely all not re-signing with the franchise. Dayton Moore already had to trade ace Closer Wade Davis this past week.
The Tampa Bay Rays were awful from 1998 – 2007, and were able to stockpile #1 overall picks to build up the franchise. The Joe Maddon era ensued for 6 straight quality years where they competed beautifully, including a World Series Loss in 2008, but now they are at a crossroads again from a 68 win campaign. and teams all spending double what they can. Read the rest of this entry
The Dodgers Should Do Another Trade With The White Sox In Order To Bolster Their 2017 Roster
The Dodgers have spent over $300 MIL in back to back years, and are the clubhouse leaders in Luxury Tax penalties paid. At a 50% penalty, the Los Angeles forked out $40 MIL in Luxury Taxes in 2016. With an estimated $204 MIL payroll – considering there are several roster holes now created by departing players, the team will need to spend around $235 MIL in 2017 total payroll. With a 50% penalty – and an additional 45% hit – for going $40 MIL over the new $195 MIL limit in 2017, I highly expect the organization will be less willing to spend 90 cents extra for every dollar spent beyond that. This means that they should not re-sign Kenley Jansen or Turner. The White Sox have the Closer, Third Baseman and Second Baseman needed to complete their roster/winter shopping – if a deal can be reached.
Last year the Dodgers were in the middle of a 3 way trade with the Reds and White Sox.
December 16, 2015: Todd Frazier was Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Cincinnati Reds to the Chicago White Sox. The Los Angeles Dodgers sent Brandon Dixon (minors), Jose Peraza and Scott Schebler to the Cincinnati Reds. The Chicago White Sox sent Micah Johnson, Frankie Montas and Trayce Thompson to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
with the full rebuild going on in the south side of Chicago now, the Los Angeles Dodgers brass should be targeting some players back in return. This time they should acquire Todd Frazier, but I also think they should go for Brett Lawrie and White Sox team Closer David Robertson.
The total net projected salary of those 3 players would equal $28.5 MIL – which would be substantially less than what it would take to re-sign Justin Turner and Kenley Jansen. David Robertson has pitched for a big market like New York before, so playoff baseball is not foreign to him.
Lawrie would adequately replace the production the club had with Chase Utley and Howie Kendrick this past year for a fraction of the cost.
Having Todd Frazier’s power would really benefit the ailing/aging slugger of Adrian Gonzalez, and also the young and brilliant Corey Seager,
So who goes back in return for these guys? Read the rest of this entry
The San Francisco Giants Should Sign Matt Wieters, Play Posey At 1B + Belt In LF
Matt Wieters accepted the 1 Year Qualifying Offer with the Baltimore Orioles last year – and he played his first full campaign since 2013. At Age 30, he is still a decent Catcher both offensively and defensively. I first came up with this idea a few years ago, but Posey was still putting world class numbers out of the backstopper position, and they had several Outfielders on the depth chart. Now.there is an opening beyond the grass, so Brandon Belt could move there – freeing up Posey to play First Base – and the team to sign Wieters.
The Giants are one of the best franchises at fostering their home grown talent. It has culminated in 3 World Series from 2010 – 2014, and the franchise has several of its core players locked up for the next 3 – 5 years.
With the recent news of the Luxury Tax Threshold penalizing the Dodgers something fierce for obliterating their payroll, the NL West has come back to the Giants to win – considering the LA squad has taken down 4 straight Division Titles.
San Francisco started the process of healing their Bullpen this winter. by forking out some big dollars to secure Closer Mark Melancon ( 4YRs/$62 MIL). There is still a long way to go in shoring up the Relief Core, but they should have the funds to do it.
Which brings me to my next point. Beyond the suspicion that Eduardo Nunez may not be a great long=term fit in the Bay Area, the Roster is pretty secure in the rest of the lineup – except for say the LF position.
There are not a lot of prime Free Agents on the open market that can play the OF. Michael Saunders will cost too much money…Angel Pagan..well the Giants should just say no…Colby Rasmus…yikes…Brandon Moss….um….should be a 1B/DH type in the American League.
As for the depth chart currently for Bruce Bochy‘s squad…..Mac Williamson, Jarrett Parker and Gorkys Hernandez…Not sure that cuts the mustard on a playoff caliber squad.
My thought is – why not sign Matt Wieters to a 3 – 4 year contract worth about $33 – $44 MIL ($11 MIL AAV) – to be the prime Catcher for the Giants – then move Posey to First Base and Brandon Belt to LF? To me it makes sense. Read the rest of this entry
Signing Wllson Ramos WAS A Great Necessary Gamble For The Tampa Bay Rays
Wilson Ramos was in heavy NL MVP consideration in the 1stt half off 2016 – .330./382/.546 – with 14 HRs and 48 RBI for his 1st 68 Games Played before he slowed down a bit in the 2nd half before tearing his ACL (for the 2nd time of his Career) in the last weekend of the regular season. Ramos can deliver as a #4 or #5 Hitter on the Rays if he is fully healthy. The big Venezuelan should see some time as Designated Hitter and Catcher in 2017 – before taking over the primary duties as Catcher in 2017. For a 2 YR/$12.5 MIL minimum commitment, this is a steal for Tampa if Ramos can bounce bacl.
You have to feel horrible for the Wilson Ramos tearing his ACL late in the season for the Nationals. He was one of the most valuable players in the National League for the 1st half of the year.
Ramos would have been the #1 Catcher on the open market had he remained healthy, and could have seen a deal that rivaled the Russell Martin contract from a few seasons ago (5 YRs/$82 MIL). Instead he lost 75% of his value as an injured player.
The 2 year pact comes with a base of $12.5 MIL – and has been said to include several incentive bonuses. This is exactly the kind of risk the Rays need to make in order to compete.
Matt Silverman and the brass are gambling that Ramos could come back in early spring, and then split time as both a DH and Catcher throughout the 2017 season, until he could take the primary backstopper position for the 2018 year.
Tampa Bay struggled in 2016 – failing to register their 1st 80 win season since 2007. but a lot of that was due to Starting Pitcher injuries – or guys underperforming. Among the position that were bad was the Catching Position. Read the rest of this entry
Cubs Acquire Closer Wade Davis: It’s A Smarter Maneuver Than You Think
Wade Davis has been one of the filthiest late inning Relievers in the game over last three years, and only comes with a salary for one year at $10 MIL. Chicago is really smart for doing this as Aroldis Chapman cost the Yankees $86 MIL for 5 years yesterday, and Kenley Jansen is not far behind. he Cubs may also give Davis a Qualifying Offer after next season is over. Who knows, maybe he would accept a one year deal at $18 MIL to stay on this World Series Contender. The most important factor in landing Davis is his playoff pedigree. He has proved he is an elite Closer on the grandest of stages – something that Chicago plans to be involved in again to defend their championship.
With the news that the Cubs brought in Wade Davis in exchange for Jorge Soler, the Cubs have effectively brought in a 9th Inning Man – who won the World Series for the Royals in 2015 as their stopper.
Davis will earn $10 MIL in 2017, and can may be extended the Qualifying Offer for 2018 in the process. With another spike potentially in the top 125 salaries (this years total was $17.2 MIL) maybe Davis would take the one year deal for 2018 after this next season.
As one of the game’s premiere Late Inning arms since the 2014 season, Davis is also a perfect replacement for the departing Aroldis Chapman.
With a team that has a World Series under its belt, they just added a Pitcher with a 4 – 0 record, with a 0.84 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 32 Innings worth of work – spanning the 2014 and 2015 World Series trip for Kansas City. He has performed at the optimal level – under the most pressure. Read the rest of this entry
The Nats Pay A Steep Price For Eaton: The New CF Has A Team Friendly 5 Year Deal Which Is The Key To Salvage The Trade
Mike Rizzo is getting scorched for the fact he gave up the #3 and #38 top MLB Pipeline Prospects. Throw in their #6 prospect – and you can see how people have said the Nats GM orchestrated a bad deal. I am not one of those people. This was a move that is more financial based than even the young players. If Washington is still able to get a top line Closer, and add several more pieces, while dancing around the Luxury Tax Threshold of $195 MIL – I am down with this trade if they re-spend the cash on another Starter that is MLB ready this season.
For the majority of the last week we heard the Nationals were trying to land Andrew McCutchen in a trade, but they shocked the world on Wednesday by acquiring CF Adam Eaton from the White Sox in exchange for three RHP (Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez and Dane Dunning).
These three guys represent the club’s #1, #3 and #6 prospects. Giolito was ranked #3 overall and Lopez #38 by MLBPipeline.com
This seems like a lot for just one player – but you have to look at several factors here.
Mike Rizzo landed a player that just turned 28 a few years ago.. He is the leadoff guy the team has needed ever since the departure of Denard Span. This is so critical when you consider the Nats will likely only have Bryce Harper for the next 2 years. Read the rest of this entry
Dear Santa: An Open Letter To Saint Nick From All 30 MLB Teams Fanbases
NY Yankees: They need to speed the clock up like Back To The Future 2. The Pinstripers are resetting for the 2019 season and beyond Bryce Harper era.
Based on how good the Red Sox Winter meetings have gone this far, you have to know there will also be a lot of Yankees 27 World Series Rings to Boston’s 8 on a T-Shirt scoreboard.
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner)
Follow @stokes_Hunter21 @mlbreports
It is time for our yearly letter to head to the north pole. Perhaps the ‘fat old jolly’ guy will respond promptly at the 2016 Winter Meetings.
The Bronx Bombers will also ask for their former Captain to please make more appearances in the public eye so they can milk the retiring of Derek Jeter‘s #2 on May 14, 2017 for about the next 6 months in a viable smokescreen to their 2017 performance.
Boston: Can we ask that Richard Simmonds become Pablo Sandoval‘s personal trainer all offseason?. For a guy who had more broken belts than hits in 2017, Sandoval can re-write his Boston legacy by proving what he can do when they are in the 2017 playoffs.
There also needs to be a discounted rack at Fenway Park for all of the S-Medium shirts that may have been there for the recently departed Yoan Moncada.
The Red Sox are always the clubhouse leaders in big tall lanky pitchers who herk and jerk when throwing, so can we ask the home broadcasting network for extra wide lenses.
Boston Throws Down A Hell Of A Haymaker To The Rest Of The American League With Acquiring Chris Sale
Chris Sale has been as about as dominant as a pitcher as there has been in the American League since he entered into the rotation. He is 74 – 50 with a clean 3.00 ERA over his career thus far – wtth 5 straight top 6 Cy Young Finishes and ALL – Star Appearances. Sale set career highs in Wins (17) CG (6) and IP (226.2) during the last campaign. He is only set to earn $38 MIL over the next 3 seasons total, so the cap hit is even better news for the Red Sox, who are already nearing the Luxury Tax Threshold Limit, and are subject to a 50% penalty as 3rd time abusers in 2017.
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner)
Follow @stokes_Hunter21 @mlbreports
The Red Sox have landed an ace in the winter for the 2nd straight winter. Boston has acquired Chris Sale from the White Sox in exchange for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech – with two other prospects Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz also heading to the Pale Hose.
This is the type of trade that brings a championship. For a MLB club that was right up against the Luxury Tax Threshold already of $195 MIL for 2017, having Sale only making $38 MIL over the next three years is the biggest plus to this pact going down.
Boston loses a young player like Moncada for sure. and he may be World Class in the future, but you have to give something up to get something. The Beantowners will still also be alright for their future with the likes of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley JR. just kickstarting their young careers, while they also held onto other great prospects like Andrew Benintendi and Blake Swihart.
They still have plenty of colorful veterans (with plenty of postseason experience) in talking of Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez – and yes even Pablo Sandoval. Read the rest of this entry
The Dodgers Will Regret The Rich Hill Deal: Yet Another Injury Prone Chucker In The Rotation
The Dodgers have spent over $300 MIL in back to back years, and are the clubhouse leaders in Luxury Tax penalties paid. At a 50% penalty, the Los Angeles forked out $40 MIL in Luxury Taxes in 2016. With an estimated $204 MIL payroll – considering there are several roster holes now created by departing players, the team will need to spend around $235 MIL in 2017 total payroll. With a 50% penalty – and an additional 45% hit for going $40 MIL over the new $195 MIL limit in 2017, I highly expect the organization will be less willing to spend 95 cents extra for every dollar spent beyond that. Because of the Rich Hill signing, it will make it tough to get back Justin Turner and land a Closer – without paying the maximum surcharges for payroll.
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner)
Follow @stokes_Hunter21 @mlbreports
I don’t hide the fact that I have been a Dodgers fan for some time. I have continuously ripped the past and present management for signing players that are injury prone. For the last 4 years the Injury/Dead money the club has doled out has rivaled what some of the lowest payroll clubs on an annual basis.
So what do the brass do? They ink a guy, who is 37, and could barely toe the mound for a handful of starts due to a blister, to a 3 Year Deal worth $16 MIL per year. Didn’t they learn their lesson with the Scott Kazmir contract? How about Chad Billingsley, Josh Beckett, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-jin Ryu, Brett Anderson or Bronson Arroyo?
This is not even taking into a factor all of the positional players and Relief Guys they have taken a powder on (hit the ground and dust flies up because of being knocked out). The Franchise ate $41 MIL in 2013, $37 MIL in salary for 2014, $86 MIL in 2015, and $71 MIL in 2016.
For those scoring at home, that is a whopping $233 MIL in lost cash since the beginning of 2013, which was the Guggenheim Consortium’s first full year at the helm.
When you factor in some more penalties for exceeding the Luxury Tax Threshold, the organization is well over the $250 MIL mark in 4 seasons. Now 2017 doesn’t look to be much different – with $47 MIL in dead money already on the board.
Carl Crawford ($21.9 MIL), Alex Guerrero ($7.5 MIL), Hector Olivera ($4.7 MIL), Matt Kemp ($3.7 MIL) and Jose Tabata (250K) are not even on the active roster anymore, yet they will see some serious coin paid out by the Dodger Blue.
The Dodgers are also paying guys $10 MIL to play in the Minor Leagues. Read the rest of this entry
Texas Rangers State Of The Union For 2017: Jon Daniels Must Counter To Houston/Seattle’s Early Moves
The Texas Rangers won an American League best 95 games last season – to win their 2nd AL west Division. and to make the playoffs for the 5th time since 2010. The winter has not gotten off to a good start, as they have watched the Astros and Mariners all add depth to their teams – while Texas has lost players from their own year end roster. The team has to get involved right now to change the course of this offseason. The time to win is now with Yu Darvish and Jonathon Lucroy in walk contract years – while their ALL – Star Veterans like Cole Hamels and Adrian Beltre become another year older.
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner)
Follow @stokes_Hunter21 @mlbreports
The Rangers have been one of the better teams in the MLB since the 2010 season. Back to Back AL Pennants, and now back to back AL West Division wins have seen them reach the playoff 5 times out of the last 7 campaigns.
For those who like pitching – the franchise has 2 number one aces for at least one more year in Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels.
Simply put, the development of all of their Draft Picks, domestically or international, coupled with the management’s keen eye for talent, have the club still in the conversation for another few years.
Here is the thing though….The Astros and Mariners have been the two busiest clubs in acquiring talent thus far in the winter. Both of these teams have closed or narrowed the gap on Texas already,
Houston has signed Free Agents Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran – with also dealing for Brian McCann. This will not affect their 2017 squad as both didn’t require anybody from the Major League Roster to get it done.
Seattle has not made as big of a splash like Houston, but has shored up some depth, and have nicely added Jean Segura (who was an ALL – Star and top 15 NL MVP in 2016 – without losing anything of note.)
Texas has signed Andrew Cashner and lost Beltran for sure…yikes.. Read the rest of this entry
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