Projected Win Totals In 2017 By Other Sites: Good Job Fangraphs – Bad Job Baseball Prospectus
The MLB Reports is not composed of several writers or analysts. We have about a half a dozen participants who account for 90% of the content featured on our website.
From the time I joined the website in late 2013, we have had a nice track record of projections. That is not to say we are perfect.
If all of us could predict the future – we would be sipping alcohol on rooftops of the hotels in Las Vegas counting our cabbage.
One thing we are going to do is have an opinion when and where we see fit.
Fangraphs has done an exceptional job in their forecasting. I agree with 87 – 90% of their team placements on their team win projections and Division standings.
Baseball Prospectus, on the other hand has notably handed out 2433 wins on their forecasting. Gentlemen, that is 3 more wins than are being played. Maybe take another look at that one?
A huge point to acknowledge is the 300 game schedule that is featured on MLB Interleague. So here is a quick tutorial for all of those people doing win totals.
Figure out how many wins the American and National League have in your totals. Add all of the wins in per league. Here, you must decide whether the AL or NL wins the yearly series.
From there, if it is the “Senior Circuit, or the Junior Circuit” whomever has an advantage (We have the AL 170 – 130 for Interleague in 2017, which would give them an overall record of 1235 – 1195 as a league), the exact opposite has to be carried by the other league.
For our prognostication, we have the National League going 1195 – 1235 overall – which is a mirror reflection.
BP has the American League with a 1223 – 1207 record, but then has the NL fashioning a 1210 – 1220 mark. You simply can’t do this fella’s. The NL has to have 3 less wins now.
We are going to get into the exact win totals of all your predictions next, but those are all still open to interpretation, so maybe they will be right – and maybe Fangraphs and our totals will be wrong.
Here are the glaring win totals on the board by BP (If they differed by 5 or more from what we projected, they made the list.)
BP’s 2017 total first, MLB Reports Total in Parenthesis
Toronto Blue Jays – 81 (88, difference of – 7)
Michael Saunders was awful in the 2nd half of the season – sporting a .639 OPS beyond the break, so he wasn’t a big factor down the stretch. But his numbers could be replaced with a more solid year from Jose Bautista.
One could argue the Jays have the best 1 – 5 SP depth wise in the Division, even though they may have a tougher time matching up against David Price and Chris Sale in Boston this season for top of the rotation best in the Division.
Baltimore – 73 (84, difference of -11 from us)
The O’s have posted 5 straight 80+ win records from 2012 – 2016, and have averaged 88.8 Wins in that time frame.
To fall off 16 victories is extremely unlikely considering that lineup can bash its way around the Division.
Minnesota Twins – 80 (67, difference of +13 from us). The Twinkies will be better than their 59 victory season in 2016, but by 21 wins…Yep…Don’t believe it.
The rotation is a nightmare, Glen Perkins is always hurt. and Joe Mauer is on the decline. Keep in mind Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano tagged the ball 73 times out of the yard in 2016, and they still posted that win total.
Not even saying the 70 win plateau is not feasible, but 80…That is a pipe dream.
KC Royals – 71 (81, difference of -10 from us). Oh, I wish this was a gambling line. KC had the worst possible luck with injuries and some poor career lows for guys yet still toted 81 victories in 2016.
I could see the team recede a few victories if they trade all of their pending Free Agents, and have an abysmal year, but to lose 10 wins from 2016 – with a cupcake Division…No Way…
Detroit Tigers – 78 (86, difference of -8 from us) This is almost funny how everyone is discounting the “Motown Boys”.
Again the Division is not chalked with “World Beaters.”
Given that offense, it is tough to even predict a losing record.
Houston Astros – 94 (87, difference of + 7 from us). If everything falls right, the Astros could definitely hit 90 wins. But with the tough Division, I don’t see it. The Starters are not superior in any way.
One could argue the Mariners have an almost as dynamic offense as Houston will carry in 2017. We did pick the “Stros” to win the Division.. But it will not be a cake walk as is suggested here.
St. Louis Cardinals – 76 (87, difference of -11 from us) This is about as ridiculous a notion as there is on the board.
The Red Birds would have to have their first losing campaign since 2007, and they are just too deep depth wise for that too happen, yet alone finish 10 games under .500.
With the Pirates not being as strong, and being in the same Division as the Reds/Brewers for 38 additional games, I would be stunned with a 76 win effort in 2017 from St. Louis!
Milwaukee Brewers – 76 (65, difference of +11 from us). The Brew Crew is an interesting study. They are not as strong as they were in for the majority of 2016 – with Jonathan Lucroy, Aaron Hill and Chris Carter not being there for parts or the whole of the season.
Then there is the whole Pitching Staff. Junior Guerra is the only Starter to chuck below a 3.97 ERA in 2016.
LA Dodgers – 99 (90, difference of +9 from us.) Much like the Houston call, we are not debating whether or not they should be the favorites. They should be. But to win 99 Games?
I suppose if Yasiel Puig turned out to the be NL MVP this might be possible.. But I am not wagering on that bet.
Colorado Rockies 76 (82, difference of – 6 from us). Would never really give any entity crap for posting anything on the Rockies with just 6 winning seasons since they came into the league in 1993, however Colorado is a lot better on offense, the young pitching is not half bad, and their Relief Core is decent.
SD Padres 69 (60, difference of +9 from us) The Padres are going to be dreadful. The rotation may not be better than many AAA clubs.)
So like it or not. We have offered our opinions on all. Baseball Prospectus has every right to post whatever they want to for win totals, and maybe they will have the last laugh – however if they exceed the 2430 Games Won limit, does it really count?
To be fair here, the good folks at Fangraphs also added 1 win more than allowable, but they were close to us in a lot of projections – including projecting an AL 1236 – 1193 edge on win – loss record, which was close to our 1235 – 1195 mark we put forth.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.
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Posted on February 9, 2017, in gambling 101, The Rest: Everything Baseball and tagged Baseball Prospetus 2017 MLB Win Projections, Fangraphs 2017 MLB Win Projections. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.