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Odds To Win The 2017 MLB League Pennants: You Will Never Guess Who May Have The Best Value

No teams in the AL would be faoored against the Cubs should they face the reigning Champs, so it mau be easier to bet them just to win the Pennant

No teams in the AL would be favored against the Cubs should they face the reigning Champs, so it may be easier to bet them just to win the AL Pennant.

There is a reason why these odds value favorites are not any real difference for the Odds To Win The World Series and these will be any different. 

Basically, you could just go ahead with a World Series bet for anyone you think that can win the Title, and then simply hedge when it comes  to the Fall Classic.

I always say that MLB Power Rankings should have a lot to do with odds to win any type of Division, League Pennant or World Series.

The 1st thing that jumped out to me here was that the LA Angels are at 35/1 for the Junior Circuit.  Should they face any of the Senior Circuit’s top clubs, they would probably all be +150 underdogs.

If you were to pick the Angels at +3500, and then parlay that into a +150 wager in the World Series, than the overall odd shoots +8750 rather than the +7500.

Personally, the Angels have had a great winter to shore up the defense – and have addressed a few roster spots with a deeper bench. 

Is it that foreign to think that the Los Angeles Angels could jump out quickly if Mike Trout can carry them?

In their 1st 60 games of the season, the Halo's effectively miss the Indians and Red Sox on the docket, and only have to play 3 games versus the Tigers as well. Yes, they play a huge chunk of their games vs the AL West, but they have improved against all of the clubs as of right now. Mike Scioscia's squad gets to play 4 games at Tampa - and 4 games vs the Twins, 3 vs Toronto and Atlanta at home, with 3 at Kc and Miami. The club are slated to host the Braves for 3 games. Did I mention they play the A's 10 times in their 1st 60 contests as well? I could see them with 34 or 36 wins at the 60 game mark In an exhausting stretch from Apr 3, to May 15, the team also plays 43 games in 46 nights, with 20 of them at home, but that is a great itinerary to kick off the campaign.

In their 1st 60 games of the season, the Halo’s effectively miss the Indians and Red Sox on the docket, and only have to play 3 games versus the Tigers as well. Yes, they play a huge chunk of their games vs the AL West, but they have improved against all of the clubs as of right now. Mike Scioscia’s squad gets to play 4 games at Tampa – and 4 games vs the Twins, 3 vs Toronto and Atlanta at home, with 3 at KC and Miami. Did I mention they play the A’s 10 times in their 1st 60 contests as well? I could see them with 34 or 36 wins at the 60 game mark In an exhausting stretch from Apr 3, to May 15, the team also plays 43 games in 46 nights, with 20 of them at home, but that is a great itinerary to kick off the campaign.

Lets say they are 8 or 10 games over at that point, I could actually see the organization spending a little bit more money in the 2nd half to acquire talent. 

Also if they can withstand until Albert Pujols gets back healthy everyday as the permanent DH.

Don’t get me wrong, I like the Astros, M’s and Rangers still better for the Division, but the gap is not that much….Particularly if the Astros don’t add a Starting Pitcher, the Mariners don’t add a slugging First Baseman, and Texas is hesitant to spend more money on payroll.

The Angels did win 98 Games in 2014 and 85 games in 2015, before receding to 74 victories last campaign. 

Mike Trout is due for one of those just carry the club on his back seasons, (not that he hasn’t been awesome individually in that time span.

If the Cubs make the World Series, than only the Boston Red Sox or Cleveland Indians may even come close to an even match for an opponent, with the reigning champs still holding a distinct advantage.

Boston’s +270 is a brutal look at an odd for the AL.  I am not infatuated with the odd of +600 for the World Series either.  They play in a tough AL East where all 5 teams could compete.

Both the Indians and Astros are fairly pitted for their odds towards the AL Pennant.

Texas continues to be the oddball 2nd favorite in the AL West despite having a poor winter thus far. 

News that they will probably sign Mike Napoli should buoy some spirits, and I am willing to acknowledge that when it happens, yet I feel they still need more.

If the Rangers also swing a Jurickson Profar for a Tampa Bay starter like Jake Odorizzi, then I could par them up with Houston.  As of right now, they are two players short.

I still love the odds for the Nationals even though I wish they wouldn’t have come to near Spring Training without a proven Closer.

The more we draw near to the regular season, the less I like the Yankees too in 2017.  They are going to be way too dependent on Gary Sanchez setting the world on fire to contend in my opinion.

New York’s rotation does not instill confidence despite having a lock down Relief Core.  Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner are in their mid 30’s now – where the speed doesn’t play as good.

Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius clubbed 20 HRs each in 2016, but so did 116 other players last campaign. 

These guys never walk either with OBP’s of .300 and .304 respectivelY.  Chase Headley is average at best.

For the Bronx Bombers to duplicate even their 84 win season last year, I think Sanchez will have to destroy 40 – 50 Jacks into the seats. 

Detroit has better Starting pitching and a world-class offense compared to the Pinstripers, yet are behind them in the odds?

Speaking of Detroit.  For being the 2nd favorite team in the AL Central, they possess the 6th place odd out of all 2nd place listed clubs. 

The Tigers can beat up the White Sox and Twins all years, and the Royals are all of a sudden not looking as good either,  I am all over the Motown Boys.

St. Louis, for the record, are the 5th out of 6th 2nd place listed odds, and are fully valued at +1250.

The Cubs are the cream of the crop, but wagering the club for +180 is not worth it.  You are better off wagering them to win the Fall Classic at +370 instead. 

There is no AL team that Chicago would be an underdog against.  Having said that, the money is not there to plunk down any cabbage for this.

I only wish you could bet the field in the NL vs the Cubs.  The Dodgers are also not a good at +435, mostly because Chicago sits in their path.

If I were to bet the Mets ever to win the NL Pennant, it would be in the mid season when I could see their rotation in action and remain healthy.

Odds To Win The American League

Blue Bold Means Good Vale with #value confidence in parenthesis

Maroon Bold Means Bad Vale with # value confidence in parenthesis

Boston Red Sox +270 (3)

Cleveland Indians +445

Houston Astros +680

Texas Rangers +900 (1)

Toronto Blue Jays +960 (3)

Seattle Mariners +1250

NY Yankees +1350 (2)

Detroit Tigers +1550 (5)

Baltimore O’s +1550

KC Royals +1850

LA Angels +3500 (1)

TB Rays +3700

Oakland A’s +7000

Minnesota Twins +7000

Chicago White Sox +7000

Odds To Win The Nationals League

Chicago Cubs +180 (5)

Dodgers +435 (4)

Washington Nationals +600 (2)

NY Mets +735

SF Giants +740

St.Louis Cardinals +1250 (4)

Colorado Rockies +2400

Pittsburgh Pirates +2400

Miami Marlins +3800

Arizona D’Backs +5000

Philadelphia Phillies +6000

Cincinnati Reds +7500

Atlanta Braves +9000

Milwaukee Brewers +10000

SD Padres +10000

Odds courtesy of betdsi.eu

AL vs NL

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***

A big thanks goes out to our ‘Chief Writer/Part Owner’ Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured post.

To Subscribe and listen daily to  ‘Our Lead Personality’  Sully’s 20 Minutes Daily (every day since Oct.24, 2012) Podcast click here.  Guaranteed listening to the Sully Baseball Daily Podcast will be the best time you invest in online!

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Odds To Win The 2017 MLB Divisions

chicago-cubs-logo

It is coming to that time where we all start making our predictions, and also plunk down more cabbage on the yearly bets. The 1st week of the February usually will come out with Player Prop Bets, and Teams Win Totals of Over and Under.

I don’t need to remind our long term readers that we have excelled in this foray since the beginning of introducing Gambling 101 as a category to mlbreports.com.

We look to continue our 70% best bet percentage.  I am looking to bounce back in the regular season in particularly as I made up the most of the money in player props, HR Derby and World Series Odds.

Today we are focusing on the MLB Divisions.

The AL East is the strongest Division in the game as 4 clubs are at least half decent. and even Tampa Bay is not that bad. Read the rest of this entry

Dear Santa: An Open Letter To Saint Nick From All 30 MLB Teams Fanbases

It is time for our yearly letter to head to the north pole.  Perhaps the 'fat old jolly' guy will respond promptly at the 2016 Winter Meetings. NY Yankees:  They need to speed the clock up like Back To The Future 2.  The Pinstripers are resetting for the 2019 season and beyond Bryce Harper era.  Based on how good the Red Sox Winter meetings have gone this far, you have to know there will also be a lot of Yankees 27 World Series Rings to Boston's 8 on a T-Shirt scoreboard.


NY Yankees: They need to speed the clock up like Back To The Future 2. The Pinstripers are resetting for the 2019 season and beyond Bryce Harper era.
Based on how good the Red Sox Winter meetings have gone this far, you have to know there will also be a lot of Yankees 27 World Series Rings to Boston’s 8 on a T-Shirt scoreboard.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) 

It is time for our yearly letter to head to the north pole. Perhaps the ‘fat old jolly’ guy will respond promptly at the 2016 Winter Meetings.

The Bronx Bombers will also ask for their former Captain to please make more appearances in the public eye so they can milk the retiring of Derek Jeter‘s #2 on May 14, 2017 for about the next 6 months in a viable smokescreen to their 2017 performance.

Boston:  Can we ask that Richard Simmonds become Pablo Sandoval‘s personal trainer all offseason?.  For a guy who had more broken belts than hits in 2017, Sandoval can re-write his Boston legacy by proving what he can do when they are in the 2017 playoffs.

There also needs to be a discounted rack at Fenway Park for all of the S-Medium shirts that may have been there for the recently departed Yoan Moncada.

The Red Sox are always the clubhouse leaders in big tall lanky pitchers who herk and jerk when throwing, so can we ask the home broadcasting network for extra wide lenses.

Read the rest of this entry

San Diego Padres Show How Much Things Can Change In The Span Of A Year

A.J. Preller has been really active trying to replenish his prospect pool after making a big splash in his rookie offseason.  The Padres finished a dismal 74 - 88.  At least he recognizing the error of his ways - and trying to eradicate his mistakes.  He dealt his two best Relievers already, stockpiling 6 prospects in return.

A.J. Preller has been really active trying to replenish his prospect pool  this year after making a big splash in his rookie offseason last year. The Padres finished a dismal 74 – 88. At least he recognizing the error of his ways – and trying to eradicate his mistakes that he made from putting up a squad that was saddled with injury riddled players.

Matt Musico (Featured BBBA Writer/Owner – chinmusicbaseball.com) 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

The first full year of A.J. Preller’s tenure as San Diego Padres general manager has basically been a roller coaster of emotions. With Opening Day just days away, it’s interesting to see how the narrative about the club has changed so drastically from the year before.

Upon getting hired in August 2014, San Diego’s biggest need was pretty clear: breathing life into an anemic offense that ranked last in runs scored (535). In the boldest way imaginable, Preller completely transformed the lineup by acquiring players like Matt KempJustin UptonDerek Norris and Wil Myers.

However, as we’ve seen in recent years, the winners of the offseason very rarely end up being winners of the World Series come October. That trend continued with the Padres, who missed the playoffs with a disappointing 74-88 record.

The goal of improving the offense was achieved (650 runs scored, 23rd-best in MLB), but not necessarily by leaps and bounds. The pitching and defense also suffered in the process.

READ THE REST OF THIS ENTRY

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast Archives Dec 1, 2014 – Dec 31, 2014 (Episodes 769 – 799)

sunkenDFiamond

Paul Francis Sullivan (please call him Sully) does a podcast 365 days a year – unless it is a leap year – then he will do another 1. He has done a show everyday since Oct.24/2012. This to date represents a streak of 1235 days consecutively!

Past the CLICK TO READ THE REST OF THIS ENTRY are episodes 769 – 799 of the Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

We will also archive all of his podcasts to date (in coming weeks) so they are easily accessible for all his fans. Check out all his Archived info here.

Our website followers have grown larger each year for his podcast.

Follow Sully Baseball On Twitter

To subscribe on iTunes, click HERE.

To subscribe on SoundCloud, click HERE. Read the rest of this entry

The Padres Should Definitely Not Pursue Yoenis Cespedes: But The Angels Should

Yoenis Cespedes led all LF for HRs with 35 on the campaign in 2015. He picked a contract year for his best season to date out of the 4 years he has been in the Major Leagues. Cespedes hit 17 HRs with the Mets in 2 months, after smacking out just 18 in the first four months with Detroit. Cespedes finished in the top 40 for both leagues in respective big fly's, and was tie for 13th overall with Manny Machado and David Ortiz. The 30 Year Old would not be a good fit in San Diego - where they have a similar player in Matt Kemp already. His presence with Trout and Calhoun in Los Angeles would be the best all around Outfield in the Majors should he sign there.

Yoenis Cespedes led all LF for HRs with 35 on the campaign in 2015. He picked a contract year for his best season to date out of the 4 years he has been in the Major Leagues. Cespedes hit 17 HRs with the Mets in 2 months, after smacking out just 18 in the first four months with Detroit. Cespedes finished in the top 40 for both leagues in respective big fly’s, and was tie for 13th overall with Manny Machado and David Ortiz. The 30 Year Old would not be a good fit in San Diego – where they have a similar player in Matt Kemp already. His presence with Trout and Calhoun in Los Angeles would be the best all around Outfield in the Majors should he sign there.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

With Yoenis Cespedes still on the open market a lot of speculation is running rampant on which squads should be in the running for his services.

While I am not sure I buy the theory at all, the Padres have been said to be checking in on the big Cuban star.

This type of signing would be a monumental mistake in my view.

I would hope that A.J. Preller would have learned his lesson by acquiring high strikeout, low OBP players that have power that may not translate to their home park in Petco Park. Read the rest of this entry

MLB Power Rankings New Years 2016

Perhaps the Back to the Future Prediction was off by just one year. The Cubs , who are immensely loaded with young offensive superstars added another to the mix with the Jason Heyward signing. Add that to a revamped Bullpen, strong Starters signed last year in Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, coupled with John Lackey this year, and this team is the clear cut #1 ranked team. Oh yeah..They even have depth to make another trade should they need to.

Perhaps the Back to the Future Prediction was off by just one year. The Cubs , who are immensely loaded with young offensive superstars added another to the mix with the Jason Heyward signing. Add that to a revamped Bullpen, strong Starters signed last year in Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, coupled with John Lackey this year, and this team is the clear cut #1 ranked team. Oh yeah..They even have depth to make another trade should they need to.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

(1) Chicago Cubs: Big additions of Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.  Tonnes of young superstars only ging to get better.

(2) NY Mets:  Starting Pitching best in the Majors.  Offensive depth better in offseason.  Need David Wright to stay healthy.  NL East easiest bottom 3 teams in the bigs.

(3) Kansas City Royals:  Easiest Division in the Majors.  Back to Back AL Pennants and defending World Series Champs.  Look for some more mid year deals. Read the rest of this entry

San Diego Padres State Of The Union For 2016

It was a disastrous plan from the beginning, and now the 2014 winter is causing the 2015 offseason to play out different. The NL West has also seen the Giants and Diamondbacks beef up their Rosters while San Diego has lost their top 3 Bullpen arms. This squad will have a tough time avoiding 100 Losses in the 2016 season in my view. The saving grace is they can trade every Veteran player they can and start building up the club for 3 - 4 more years down the road.

It was a disastrous plan from the beginning, and now the 2014 winter is causing the 2015 offseason to play out different. The NL West has also seen the Giants and Diamondbacks beef up their Rosters while San Diego has lost their top 3 Bullpen arms. This squad will have a tough time avoiding 100 Losses in the 2016 season in my view. The saving grace is they can trade every Veteran player they can and start building up the club for 3 – 4 more years down the road.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

It certainly is a different feel to the winter of the Padres in the 2015 offseason than it was the 2014 Season.  I never bought into the premise of how A.J. Preller built the team last year.

It was one of the easiest over/under wagers of the year.  It ended in the club losing more games than they did the previous year – despite running a higher payroll.

The franchise loses Justin Upton to Free Agency, and have traded or lost their top 3 Relievers in Craig Kimbrel, Joaquin Benoit and Shawn Kelley.

Preller has also made a few questionable moves in acquiring Jon Jay for one year – and giving up on Jedd Gyorko.  In my view, this is a weird move.

In an Infield that is already lacking power, this latest move furthers the need to bring in more hitters. Read the rest of this entry

Trades Are Coming In Fast This Winter

A.J. Preller has been really active trying to replenish his prospect pool after making a big splash in his rookie offseason. The Padres finished a dismal 74 - 88. At least he recognizing the error of his ways - and trying to eradicate his mistakes. He dealt his two best Relievers already, stockpiling 6 prospects in return.

A.J. Preller has been really active trying to replenish his prospect pool after making a big splash in his rookie offseason. The Padres finished a dismal 74 – 88. At least he recognizing the error of his ways – and trying to eradicate his mistakes. He dealt his two best Relievers already, stockpiling 6 prospects in return in the trades.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Onwer) 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

It seems everyday now that there is a new MLB Trade to discuss.  I love it.  Nothing is better than this kind of thing during a long offseason.  I thought we would take a minute to break down what has occurred so far since the World Series ended.

The Mariners, Padres are doing multiple trades trying to revamp their teams cosmetically.

The trade I like for both clubs the most is probably the John Ryan Murphy to the Twins for Aaron Hicks deal. Read the rest of this entry

I Understand The River Boat Gambler Mentality, But Preller’s Method To Build SD Into A Winner Will Fail

A.J. Preller has revamped the roster of the Padres so much in the offseason, that I think it will take a full season for everyone to get used to their surroundings.  Much like the 2012 Angels and Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays and 2014 Yankees, just when you thought they won the winter, it took them half to a full year to round out their talent.  Having 10+ new faces on the roster usually doesn't translate to immediate impact on the field.  The Padres are listed as about an 84 win game club based on their squad.  I think they will be far below that.  For now, I have them ranked below the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, Pirates and Marlins in the National League.

A.J. Preller has revamped the roster of the Padres so much in the offseason, that I think it will take a full season for everyone to get used to their surroundings. Much like the 2012 Angels and Marlins, 2013 Blue Jays and 2014 Yankees, just when you thought they won the winter, it took them half to a full year to round out their talent. Having 10+ new faces on the roster usually doesn’t translate to immediate impact on the field. The Padres are listed as about an 84 win game club based on their squad. I think they will be far below that. For now, I have them ranked below the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, Pirates and Marlins in the National League.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer): 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

You are the San Diego Padres, and are looking at the Dodgers (north of $230 MIL in payroll the last 2 years and $267 MIL in 2015), and also the 3 times in 5 year champions (Giants) that also hail in your Division. Your franchise barely can scrape up enough dollars to crack the $100 MIL salary barrier, and you have 2 Pennants since your inception in 1969.

Petco Park’s attendance has been dropping since the park opened over a decade ago, and you needed to shake things up.  I get that.  Everyone and their grandma is calling A.J. Preller’s winter as a landmark win for any new executive that there has been.

Similar words were spoken in the winter of 2012 – going into 2013, when Alex Anthopoulos pulled off that mega trade with the Marlins, and everyone was casting them for the World Series (even the oddsmakers).  He based that trade with several components from Miami that were riddled with injury troubles in their career. Read the rest of this entry

2015 Regular Season Win Over/Unders In The MLB + Best Bets

What are your best Over/Under Bets for the upcoming 2015 MLB Season?  We have selected our top 10.

What are your best Over/Under Bets for the upcoming 2015 MLB Season? We have selected our top 10.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

Over/Unders for the year, based on odds given by http://www.bovada.com sports book

Arizona – 71.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)

I gotta go with the under.  San Diego, LA and SF are all much better, and even Colorado is tough on the road. Like them at just around 70 wins.  Is a rebuilding year, and they might fetch a heavy ransom if Mark Trumbo can have a bounce back 1st half.  2016 maybe the year the can contend again.

Atlanta – 73.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)

I like the over on this one big time.  This club lost a ton of offense, yet I like their run prevention more than ever.  Shelby Miller was a great acquisition, and they still have a nasty Bullpen.  I am not as bullish on the rest of the NL East as a lot of clubs are too.  Wouldn’t call this a best bet, however, like them to win 75 – 77 games. Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – February 9, 2015

 

AP Media

James Shields signs with the Padres, who turned out to be one of the biggest spenders this off season, along with the Marlins.

We all predicted that, right?

It is a World Turned Upside Down episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

 

 

Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – December 22, 2014

Lenny Ignelzi - AP

Lenny Ignelzi – AP

I swear I am not obsessed with the Padres.

But they ARE having the most interesting off season in baseball. And if they acquire Cole Hamels, it would finally make sense.

It is yet another San Diego episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

 

Read the rest of this entry

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