The old adage here is ‘you want to know the truth, follow the money.
We have been talking projections for win totals in the upcoming MLB Year on a all offseason basis here at the MLB Reports. While we agreed a lot with the fangraphs.com prognostications, we had a problem with Baseball Prospectis’s PECOTA System yet again.
In the 1st total listed below are the official Win/Loss Over/Unders For All 30 MLB Clubs posted by Atlantis Casino.
We have to say that they pretty much mirrored what we have on the board for our projections.
Casino’s have a vested interest since it will cost them serious money if there are poor predictions.
Having a great offsesson despite David Ortiz retiring. Are the deepest all around team in the American League, with the greatest collection of veterans and young players. The biggest other move in the Division so far was the Yankees signing Aroldis Chapman, and that may just help the Bombers stay above .500 – and have a chance to compete.
Following the recent Winter Meetings, the new CBA being signed. and then the subsequent few weeks after, the projections are win totals based on the teams if over/unders were to be placed.
Cleveland stands to benefit for the rest of the division all seeming to rebuild. but the Tigers have only dealt Cameron Maybin away – so they are sitting on the cusp of challenging for the AL Central again. Detroit may want to explore going for it one more year based on what the Royals have done, and the fact the White Sox and Twins might be the worst clubs in the Junior Circuit.
Houston has been super progressive with signing Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran as Free Agents, while also flipping for Brian McCann. This was a squad that started 7 – 17,before reeling off a nice 77 – 62 mark down the stretch to fall just short of the playoff bar.
Seattle is also positioning themselves upward just by how bad the Rangers have fared this winter. Not only that, but they added strength to their worst 2 weaknesses in adding Jean Segura at SS. and Carlos Ruiz as a viable backup Catcher.Read the rest of this entry →
Craig Kimbrel is still about as filthy as they come in nailing down games in the Majors. With 225 Saves and a 1.63 ERA in the last 5 years of his career, this 27 year old flamethrower brings his talents to Beantown and a top rated club. Last year was the 1st season he didn’t lead the National League after four consecutive years of leading the Senior Circuit. He still managed 39 Saves for a 74 win San Diego team. Since the Red Sox are going to be somewhere in the 90 win range, Kimbrel should at least be in the mid 40’s in Saves again for 2016.
Figuring out the Saves Leaders for the 2016 year is a lot easier to project than the Holds Leaders we did last week. Perhaps the easiest to discern is also the National League.
Since I projected 7 teams will win 90+ games in the Senior Circuit I have listed 5 teams with their Closer out of the fold there. I did however, leave out Hector Rondon and Mark Melancon.
I feel the Bucs may trade Melancon despite being in a position to make the playoffs. I also think the Cubs will blow out a ton of clubs this season in games, and therefore not need Rondon to lockdown a 3 run or under lead.
This is the same reason why I won’t label Roberto Osuna for the top 5 in the American League either. It is also not unfathomable to see the Jays go with Drew Storen to close down games.
I fully think that Craig Kimbrel will lead the entire Major Leagues for the Boston Red Sox as their Closer.
I may have gone with Aroldis Chapman on the list as well, however his pending suspension for his domestic violence call in should see him riding pine for at least 25 games. The New York Yankees should still lead the Junior Circuit for total team Saves. Read the rest of this entry →
With so much uncertainty in the air about Mark Melancon’s fate with the club, I can’t pick Tony Watson to win this category for a 2nd straight year. He was also the runner-up in the 2014 season. I say he is the Closer in the 2nd half of the year. His teammate Jared Hughes will get plenty of opportunities all year in late inning relief.
It is time to get our fantasy teams ready in 2016. Because of the long winter year for certain players, the Relievers market has a pile of roster moves to go down before opening weekend in April. There are some guys that could make the list, but I am itching to write my list.
The Diamondbacks doesn’t have many long term contracts that carry out big $ – so they were able to throw a whole bunch of dough to sign Zack Greinke to the biggest Annual Average Contract in MLB History. Despite that deal, there maybe more signings and acquisitions on the way with the total team payroll still being under $100 MIL thus far for next campaign.
So in one signing of Zack Greinke, the Diamondbacks effectively doubled their 2016 salary outlook for the year. There was a reason Arizona could make such an expensive deal – and it wasn’t just because of their recent TV contract.
The franchise has done a decent job in slashing payroll over the last few years. They also have the best value on the board with thePaul Goldschmidtcontract through 2019.
The big lanky 1B finished runnerup for the MVP in the National League for the second time in 3 years during 2015 – and will only earn $40 MIL over the next four seasons. OnlyAndrew McCutchen’s6 YRs/$51 MIL extension rivals the kind of value the club has received in the league.
The Diamondbacks brass hit a proverbial HR, when they extended Paul Goldschmidt to a 5 YRs/$32 MIL deal prior to the 2013 campaign.
The Then 25 Year Old finished runner up to the NL MVP Voting, and likely would have won it based on his .302/.401/.551 year with an NL leading 36 HRs, 125 RBI, (he also led in Slugging, OPS and Scored 103 Runs.)
Having a franchise player for the next 4 years at such a feasible rate in terms of payroll enables them to do so many things with their salary structure.
Patrick Corbin pitched like the ace of the staff for Arizona and gave them a chance to win every time he pitched. The DBacks went 23-9 in the games that he started. He used the combination of a good fastball and a devastating slider that confused hitters when they came up to the plate against him. The southpaw won 14 games and pitched over 200 innings in his first full season in the rotation. He struck out 178 batters and only walked 54 with a 1.16 WHIP. Corbin held opposing batters to a .240 average and left-handers only hit .203 against him. He did struggle in the final month, as it looked like he ran out of gas. The rotation for Arizona is promising with him leading the way.
The Arizona Diamondbacks didn’t have the type of year in 2013 that they had wished for, however the future looks really strong. Aided by a slugging 1st Baseman (Paul Goldschmidt), and great young Staring Pitching like Wade Miley and Patrick Corbin, added with Veterans Miguel Montero, Martin Prado and Aaron Hill, with prospects A.J. Pollock and Adam Eaton being the future core, this team should see some heavy duty improvement from year to year.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are one of the better run franchises in the MLB In fact, they are in a constant battle with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, for the best record ALL – Time for an expansion team.
The club has made the playoffs in 5 of its 15 years existence. While they won’t make the Post Season in 2013, they have been competitive for yet another campaign.
One of the best things they could have done was to lock down Paul Goldschmidt to a a lengthy (team friendly contract, that will see the big First Baseman be the pillar behind the offense for the next several seasons.
Kevin Towers and his scouting staff are always on top of the mark for player development, and it will probably result in the team having a chance every year in both the NL West Race and for a Wild Card Birth.
For a Full 3 year Salary Outlook plus last years Stats for every player in the D-Backs Organization clickhere.
Oakland Athletics’ Jed Lowrie has made Billy Beane look like a genius once again – with clubbing 16 hits, (8 of the Extra Base Variety), Scoring 10 Runs and Walking 6 times so far in the teams 8 – 2 start. He has an OPS of 1.258. He was acquired from the Houston Astros in a February trade which sent Chris Carter the other way. The man can play several defensive positions well. He is due for Arbitration at the end of this season, before becoming a Free Agent in 2015. Beane doesn’t seem to make a bad move these days.
Hands up.. How many people would have thought that the Oakland Athletics would start the 2013 season with the best record in the Major Leagues so far?
Of course this website is not surprised at all. Jonathan Hacohen (Website Founder and current Oakland A’s Correspondent) wrote a brilliant piece in the 1st week of July/2012 – breaking down Billy Beane‘s new MoneyBall Philosophy here.
I have to admit something right now.. I had not seen the movie “MoneyBall” even by this time. Yes…brutal and I was kicking myself for not seeing it before hand.
After the movie, I did some digging and was extremely flabbergasted with what I found about Beane’s magic. I wrote a Roster Tree for the Hitters and Pitchers in the organization. I studied every single transaction to back track how each of the current member of the team had arrived in an Oakland uniform. You can find that 2 part series here.
A.J Griffin was 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA in 15 Games Started for the A’s in his 2012 Rookie Season. The A’s will look for the 24 Year old for some Quality Starts in 2013. The former University of San Diego Pitcher yielded a 1.13 WHIP during his time last year. As the teams #4 Starting Pitcher on the depth chart, Griffin should be able to see some favorable matchups in 2013. If he throws like 2012 again in 2013, he might very pole vault to being the ace of the rotation. We may have another 3 – 4 staff that contend for the AL Cy Young like the days of Hudson, Mulder and Zito.
They also are bringing back Bartolo Colon for the 2013 season, despite taking a 50 game suspension for PED use last year. Billy Beane is a master tactician on assessing a players worth and especially pitchers. Just like the hitters, the pitchers are all mostly in the 25-30 Age bracket. He has a quality set of controllable relief pitchers in the barn to close out games too.
Arizona Diamondbacks fans had some high hopes coming into the 2012 season after winning the division in 2011 and making their way back to the playoffs for the first time 2007. The 2012 off-season saw them bring in free agent OF Jason Kubel. The season started off great with a three game sweep of the San Francisco Giants, but when CF Chris Young went crashing into the wall to catch a deep ball against the Pittsburgh Pirates the team was never the same. The Diamondbacks are in tough division the NL West, which is known for pitching. They will have to rely on their young starters if they hope to compete with San Francisco Giants & Los Angeles Dodgers. The offense will have to get better with manufacturing runs and instead of depending on the long ball to score runs. They traded away RF Justin Upton and 3B Chris Johnson, but they brought in versatile player Martin Prado and pitching prospect Randall Delgado.
Game #7 of the 2001 World Series – Gonzalez Game Winner – Can the 2013 DBACKS get back to the WS?
Arizona have won 5 Division Titles in just 15 years of existence – including winning the World Series in 2001. The franchise consistently is rated as one of the top rated front office organizations – and routinely rank as the most fan-friendly team in the MLB. The Franchise is 2nd amongst Expansion Clubs for Winning Percentage (.498) behind the Angels (.499.) The DBacks are only 10 games below .500 for their ALL-Time record (1210-1220). Will they be able to compete with the Dodgers and Giants in future years by increasing Payroll?
The Diamondbacks finished the 2012 season with disappointment as they struggled to get over .500 for much of the season. They lost the last game of the season to the Rockies that summed up what happened during the year. When they got good starting pitching, the defense would make a costly mistake, and then the offense would struggle to score any runs. The Diamondbacks enter the 2013 camaign with plenty of new faces on the club.
General Manager Kevin Towers has changed the makeup of this team these past two off-seasons. He has put an emphasis on players who can make consistent contact, rather than hitting the long ball. The Dbacks GM is always looking to improve upon the bullpen. He did this by taking a risk on Heath Bell who had a bad year with the Marlins, but Towers believes a change of scenery will help. Towers not only brought in bullpen help, but also signed some key players’ to long-term contracts that will aid the team to not only contend now, but for the future.
2011 DiamondBacks Post Season Highlights. Lyrics May Contain mature content so Parental Guidance is advised:
Yesterday we talked about the hitters of the Oakland Athletics current roster and today we will talk about their pitching. This has been an organization that has thrived on brilliant drafting of young arms. In the early 2000’s, the team featured three ace pitchers in Barry Zito, Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. Billy Beane had to let each of them leave Oakland because they couldn’t pay them the kind of dollars needed to secure them long term. With the exception of this year, Barry Zito has not lived up to his 7 Years and 126 Million Dollar contract he signed with the San Francisco Giants since leaving the Athletics. Despite a 15-8 year for the SF club this past year, he holds a 58-69 (.447) record for San Francisco lifetime with a 4.47 ERA. He was 102-63 (.618) and a 3.55 ERA with the A’s before leaving at the age of 29. The guy made 18.25 Million in his Oakland days and has already pocketed 99 Million with SF.
Mark Mulder never was the same pitcher in the NL and was out of baseball four years after being traded to St. Louis. His A’s career had netted him an 81-42 (.659) record with a 3.92 ERA. He was only 22-18 (.550) and a 5.04 ERA with the Cardinals before retiring. As you will read in this article below, the franchise made a worthy trade in returns for this man. Mulder made 25.3 Million in his contract with the Cardinals after making only 8.4 Million with the A’s.
Tim Hudson on the other hand, has been one of the better pitchers in the NL for the last decade, still towing the hill for the Braves at the age of 38. He was 92-39 (.702) with a 3.30 ERA for the A’s. He has since gone 105-65 with a 3.52 ERA for the Braves in in 8 years. He definitely has been worth the $ invested (84.5 Million plus another 9.0 Million in 2013.) He only made 4.5 Million in his 6 years with Oakland. The sandwich pick they landed for Hudson’s Free Agent signing was Travis Buck. Unfortunately Buck only played 170 games for the franchise, hitting .250 with 18 HRs and 71 RBI in 571 AB.
Total Record for 3 other teams is 185-152 (.549) and they have made 208.8 Million away from Oakland, whereas they were 275-144 (.656) and made a total 33.15 Million Dollars with the Athletics. I would say, Beane made the right decisionin not signing them.
The Future of the Oakland A’s: The Mustache Gang Meets the Bash Brothers: Revealing Billy Beane’s Master Plan click here.
For The Oakland A’s 2013 Roster Tree Part 1: The Hitters Click Here
The Diamondbacks are looking at having an incredibly strong bullpen in 2013.
Alex Mednick (Baseball Writer and Analyst):
In 2011, the Arizona Diamondbacks made a really nice push in the AL West and finished with 94 wins, 8 games ahead of the second place San Francisco Giants. They performed well above expectations, and they did so with a relatively unglamorous starting rotation, that consisted mainly of Ian Kennedy, Joe Saunders, Josh Collmenter, Daniel Hudson and a revolving 5th starter. What really carried the team in 2011 and made the Arizona Diamondbacks a competitive in 2011, happened to be their weakest link in their miserable 2010 season: the bullpen.
The Diamondbacks won 29 more games in 2011 than they did in 2010. The most drastic changes made by the organization were in the bullpen where the D-Back’s added closer J.J. Putz and setup man David Hernandez. The 2011 bullpen allowed 100 fewer runs than their predecessors in 2010 and dropped their group ERA from 5.74 in 2010 to just 3.71 in 2011. It goes without saying that their newly revamped bullpen allowed Arizona to stay close in a lot more games and gave them a better chance to be winners.
Following their great 2011 season, the D-Back’s found themselves reverting back to their former ways in 2012. Finishing 13 games behind the first place Giants, and just barely hanging on to a .500 record, the Diamondback’s finished 81-81. You want to know something interesting? It was their bullpen, once again, that failed. Read the rest of this entry →
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer): Follow @chuckbooth3024To say that this year has been a good year for baseball is an humongous understatement. I thought after last years finish, that nothing was going to duplicate the experience. Everyone forgets (or maybe not) that there should not even have been many races last year with Atlanta and Boston having such substantial leads on playoff spots. The Red Sox and Braves collapsed like a couple of bowling pins with King Kong Bundy splashing down on them!
This year, there are 15 teams still vying for 10 playoff spots. So far the only probable locks are Washington for a playoff spot-and Cincinnati to probably win their division The player races for all of the categories is almost as fascinating. Will Andrew McCutcheon catch Melky Cabrera for the Batting title? Or will 2012 be forever cemented in baseball folklore by a stained player like Cabrera? He could still end up determining who wins the World Series in the Fall Classic by his Testosterone filled antics in his MVP ALL-Star Game. The big question is, will the San Francisco Giants fans cheer for him if he comes back in the playoffs? They cheered for another league leader before when it was obvious he was guilty. Right now if you are the Giants, you will take an opportunity to boo or cheer for Cabrera because that means you would be in the playoffs.
Will the spending happy Dodgers have to wait another year to capitalize on their new plan to make the playoffs? If they ultimately miss the playoffs outright, are they going to buy every player they can in the off-season? I sure hope Magic knows that there are Luxury Tax penalties for spending over 178 Million Next Year. 1st year fine is 22.5%, 2nd year is 30%, 3rd year and beyond is 40%. So if they plan on having a 250 Million Dollar Payroll in 2013 (by adding 2 or 3 more top Free Agents) will the Dodgers just forego the worry of any financial penalties on a yearly basis– just to dominate the whole National League (plus baseball for that matter.) Every other team has to consider the urgency in cashing out a World Series right now while the Dodgers have not had a full off season with the new management yet. Can Oakland and their ‘New Money Ball philosophy’ make it to the playoffs for the first time since 2006?
The Best Players over the last month were: Buster Posey, Prince Fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Yovani Gallardo, Kris Medlen, Adam Wainwright, Aroldis Chapman and Felix Hernandez. The best teams have been Oakland, Washington, San Francisco, San Diego, Baltimore and Texas. The worst teams have been Houston (at least its better to go down hard and stockpile #1 Draft Picks guys.) I have a feeling you will be there for a while with the division you are heading into and may even challenge the 120 Loss Single Season Record. At least you are not going into the NL West to compete with the LA Dodgers! The Cleveland Indians have fallen to an epic drop-off as well. Toronto misses their top sluggers. What has happened to the Minnesota Twins? The Mets have ownership and payroll problems, so at least they have an excuse. Plus they lead the world in guys being hurt. When David Wright has been your healthiest player, you know the season has been backwards! So sit back, get your notebook and popcorn ready for this Month’s Rankings!Read the rest of this entry →
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