Blog Archives
2017 MLB Regular Season Player Prop Bet Odds Part 1
On this list of player over/unders it may be worth a well solution to wager over on all bets across the board and go for about a 60 percent win factor. I did bet a few unders on the sheet towards the end. I continue to find value on the whole gambling aspect of listed odds. I will throw down some more money on these selections. I am just hoping that I don’t become too over-confident for my own good.
With less than 2 months until the regular season begins, we are starting to see some prop bets show up online and in Las Vegas.
Come back by the start of March to see Over/Under wins for all 30 MLB clubs, and also when they decide to implement individual player prop bets.
With so many MVP candidates and Cy Young type pitchers, we are favoring Over a lot more than Under yet again in 2017.
We compiled a 6 – 0 individual player bet prop record, and were not so hot on these props listed, but we still managed a .500 record even for those.
part 2 will be at the end of February.. Read the rest of this entry
Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – February 5, 2017
For this week’s Sunday Request, I am going to answer multiple Tweets.
@sullybaseball ive been listening to ur October shows and noticed that ur stance re Chapman ended up having u spend more time talking 1/2
— TheStartingBloc (@thestartingbloc) January 11, 2017
@sullybaseball about him more than any other player who did have a positive influence on the game. 2/2
— TheStartingBloc (@thestartingbloc) January 11, 2017
@sullybaseball that way you can spend more time focusing on players that positively impact the game
— TheStartingBloc (@thestartingbloc) January 11, 2017
Yes, I could have just focused on the positive. But sometimes you need to shine the light on the negative.
And seeing the cavalier and dismissive attitude we see towards domestic violence, especially by the coverage of Aroldis Chapman, the shrugs by Hal Steinbrenner and the covering up by the NFL shows that too many people are on the wrong side of history.
That and a few Super Bowl Sunday thoughts and admiring those practicing softball in February on this episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.
Chicago Cubs Payroll In 2017 + Contracts Going Forward
Look, there is no way to sugar coat it, the Jason Heyward contract is about the biggest dumpster fire of a contract there may ever be. Having said that, everyone receives one mulligan.
Even 3 time World Series winning GM Brian Sabean has had a horrible Matt Cain contract to contend with the last half decade.
Theo Epstein hasn’t made too many blunders – and winning a World Series with both the Red Sox and now the Cubs has solidified a position for him in Cooperstown.
Also lucky is the brilliant signing of Anthony Rizzo of a 7 YR deal prior to 2013, and when he asserted himself as a perennial MVP contender.
Despite carrying a projected payroll in 2017 of around $171 MIL – the team has plenty of expiring contracts in the name of Jake Arrieta, Wade Davis, Jon Lackey, Jon Jay, Pedro Strop, Miguel Montero and Koji Uehara. to replenisg te talent again in 2018 – and going forward
There are only 4 players signed for $79.2 MIL so far.
The Rizzo longterm deal a perfect contrast to the Heyward pact. Should Rizzo’s Team Options be picked up for 2020 and 2021 (for $16.5 MIL each year), then the club will still only have paid him $74 MIL from 2013 – 2021, spanning 9 years at an Annual Value of $8.2 MIL. That is completely lights out for the organization going forward.
The one factor of brilliantly drafting and then rostering a club full of guys the same age is that they are all on entry level contracts for a few years before the squad becomes increasingly expensive before Arbitration rights kick in.
2018 will see Kris Bryant, Kyle Hendricks and Addison Russell all hit 1st year Eligible on Arbitration, and then 2019 has Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras and Carl Edwards JR. hit the 1st year.
it will be at this point the team shoots up the salary page.
Other than Jon Lester, Heyward and Ben Zobrist, there are no real big salaries on the table for the team to digest.
The biggest dilemma will be the status of Jake Arrieta. My guess is that he will want too much money and walk away from the Cubs.
More important than that even is simply signing Free Agents (not named Arrieta) by Epstein.
Epstein is creative. It is okay to figure out a Starting Pitcher in Free Agency, and also add another Closer if need be. Who knows, by 2018, Hector Rondon and Carl Edwards JR. may be able to lock down that role.
There is still money to spend in the 2017 and 2018 winter markets for sure.
Also playing in the NL Central provides them with security of being able to outspend all the other teams – with the Cardinals only being in the atmosphere.
It is not like they are fighting in the tough NL West with the Giants and high spending Dodgers. It will still mean facing off against those clubs. and contending with the aging Nationals roster, and New York Mets young staff for a few seasons.
Wrigley Field will be sold out, the revenue streams will break out to record levels, all freely flowing cash into the Ricketts family pockets.
The good news is they are not in cap hell yet The bad news is that it would only take one more bad deal/paired with Heyward, in order to prevent the club from signing all of their young superstars to extensions.
Epstein is too smart for that. Look for high value Annual Average Value’s that have expiring contracts before the 2018 and 2019 seasons. I wouldn’t be surprised if they trade for an existing ace pitcher.
Think Zack Greinke now, or a guy like Justin Verlander in 2018 or 2019, where the other club may eat some of the salary, ask for a high level prospect, and then have a legitimate Starter to lug some innings in the playoffs.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if the brass orchestrates a trade for a guy like Chris Archer – or Sonny Gray (midway through this year if he has healed himself).
Maybe it would cost you a Javier Baez, or a combinations of Carl Edwards JR./Albert Almora JR. to do it, however with Ben Zobrist still in town, defense alignment can be configured in a lot of different ways for at least the next 2 – 3 years.
Like I stated in the Giants Payroll article, the new CBA has also reeled in the Dodgers spending $300 MIL on team payroll. The best thing that could happen for the Cubs is if Clayton Kershaw were to opt out of his deal beyond 2017.
That would either bring up the price for the Dodgers to sign him, or even give them the chance to sign the guy themselves. Yes. the Cubs have more flexibility than the Dodgers for at least a couple of offseasons.
Guaranteed Contracts/POS/AGE:
Jason Heyward – OF (28): With a grand sum of $184 MIL from 2016 – 2023 ( 8 years) this is a brutal deal – and the club is lucky to have already won a World Series in season 1 of this pact.
Heyward will make an astonishing $28.2 MIL for both the 2017 and 2018 seasons. Epstein at least frontloaded the contract to erase some of the burden by the time the young talent comes up for raises.
This deal is the 13th richest in history for a guy who carried a .631 OPS. in 2016 I tend to think that Heyward will be closer to his Career OPS of .761 the next few years with the pressure somewhat off him now.
Hit him 7th or 8th and let him work out his kinks. Defense is at least not a problem here with him winning a 4th Gold Glove.
This could end bad in 2017 – with Heyward riding pine for some of the year – if the club opts to use Zobrist, Schwarber and the tandem of Jon Jay and Almora JR. as the OF.
You also have to think that Joe Maddon won’t hesitate to find Willson Contreras reps as well.
Jon Lester – SP (33): Lester is in the 3rd year of a 7 YR/$165 MIL deal, and is set to reel in $25 MIL in 2017. The deal calls for $27.5 MIL in both 2018 and 2019, before scaling back to $20 MIL in 2020.
There is a 2021 Club Option as well. Details on that: $25M Team Option, $10M Buyout option guaranteed with 200 innings in 2020 or 400 IP in 2019-20.
With the Buyout that large, the man would have to fall from grace hard, to not get the Option. Although he would be nearly 40, $15 MIL extra will probably not be that bad.
Lester is worth every dollar the club has spent so far. It is hard to find playoff proven commodities on the open market.
Ben Zobrist – UT (36): Zobrist is the only player in the MLB who was won 2 straight World Series, as also being a member of the 2015 WS Champ KC Royals.
With the availability to play 5 defensive positions, Zobrist was the perfect compliment to the Cubs defensive roster in 2016 – although he played predominantly at 2B.
With the emergence of Baez in the playoffs, he will likely rove more around in 2017.
Zobrist earns $16.5 MIL in both 2017 and 2018 – before retreating back to $12.5 MIL in 2019. He will be in his Age 39 season at that point, and it may not look so hot at that point, but one can’t argue at his flexibility on the Roster providing so many options in the title run.
You can even say that his positional switching gives the club a better chance to hold onto Kyle Schwarber (instead of trading him in the American League).
John Lackey – SP (38): Lackey joined Lester, David Ross. and Epstein as guys who have won World Series in 2013 with Boston and the Cubs in 2016. He will make $16 MIL in 2017 before hitting Free Agency in 2018.
Lackey lugged 188.1 IP and gave the Cubs a 3.35 ERA in the process. It doesn’t even matter that he was being pulled in the early innings of the postseason.
Jake Arrieta – SP (31): Arrieta earns a tidy $15.6 MIL this year and will likely head out into Free Agency as a Scott Boras client. Unfortunately the man is going to be 32 heading into 2018.
I would not offer him higher than a 4 year deal at $20 – $21 MIL after, yet that will not get the job done when he hits the open market. Someone will pony up 5 YRs/$125 MIL for him, you watch.
Miguel Montero – C (34); Montero will make $14 MIL in 2017 – and I am not sure he will Catch more than about 60 games. Contreras at last is on an entry level contract to offset this salary. I am surprised the team has not ventured out to trade him.
Wade Davis – CL (32): It cost the club Jorge Soler and 4 years of Team Control, yet this was the way to go. $10 MIL for one year of Davis (who Closed for the 2015 wS Champion Royals) is smart business practice.
To acquire an elite Reliever such as this is a great move – when you consider the Yankees, Dodgers and Giants spent $86 MIL, $80 MIL and $62 MIL to sign Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon respectively.
Soler was going to be their 7th option as an OF. Davis, by the way, has a 0.83 ERA in 32.2 IP for his postseason career – and has carried a mid 1 ERA from 2014 – 2016 as a late inning Reliever – spanning 183 IP.
I would also think the club will extend the Qualifying Offer to him this winter ( $17.5 – $19 MIL range for one year), so they may even recover a 2nd or 3rd Draft Pick back all for just $10 MIL.
Jon Jay – OF (32): Has a 2017 contract or $8 MIL to play OF. He has a career .352 OBP, so could hit 1st or 9th for Maddon, working as an on base guy for the big boppers. Brilliant little move.
Anthony Rizzo – 1B (28): Rizzo will take him $7 MIL for 2017, coming after the heels of an ALL-Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and top 4 MVP season in which he clubbed 30+ HRs and added 100 RBI for a 2nd straight season.
Rizzo also makes $7 MIL in 2018, $12 MIL in 2019, and two Team Options in a row call for $16.5 MIL and $2 MIL Buyouts for both 2020 and 2021.
It is contracts like this that setup championship caliber clubs for the organization.
Other valued deals that compare to it last decade or so. Paul Goldschmidt (5 YRs/$32.5 MIL), Madison Bumgarner (6 YRS/$35.6 MIL) and Andrew McCutchen ( 6 YRs/$51 MIL) that coincided with 4 straight top 5 NL MVP finishes.
Rizzo should challenge for an MVP every year of that remains on this deal.
Koji Uehara – RP (42): $6 MIL for one year seems like a lot or a guy of his age, but Uehara has plenty of playoff/Closer experience that is invaluable to a club like this. I would take it easy on him in the regular season and save the bullets for playoffs.
Hector Rondon – RP (29): $5.8 MIL for this former Closer is not a bad deal in 2017. Rondon has one more year left of Arbitration before hitting Free Agency in 2019. He has 77 Saves and a career ERA of 2.97.
Brian Duensing – SP/RP (33): Makes $2 MIL in 2017 and a Free Agent in 2018. A spot start here and extra Bullpen arm,
Justin Grimm – RP (29): Avoided Arbitration with a $1.8 MIL, has 2 more years left of Arbitration before he is a Free Agent.
Total Money for this Category for 2017: $157.5 MIL (13 Players)
Arbitration Eligible/POS/AGE
3rd year
Pedro Strop – RP (33): Is projected to to earn $5.5 MIL in Arbitration, and is a Free Agent in 2018.
Total Money for this Category for 2017: $5.5 MI: Total money is now $163 MIL
Pre-Arbitration – Entry Level Contracts:
Tommy La Stella – INF (28): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and a Free Agent in 2021.
Kyle Hendricks – SP (27): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2020 and a Free Agent in 2021.
Kris Bryant – 3B Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2021 as a “Super 2” and a Free Agent in 2021. Bryant is only 25 Years old, and will have 4 years of Arbitration kick in starting next season.
Since the club opted to start his 2015 after the 10 days of service time, they wll retian his rights until the end of 2021. Bryant is on pace to end up recording Arbitration cash if he keeps his career trajectory.
The club should really look to extend him similar to the Mike Trout 6 YRs.$144 MIL deal he got.
Addison Russell – SS (23): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2018 – 2021 as a “Super 2” and a Free Agent in 2022.
Comparisons to an extension similar to what he may get are: Jason Kipnis and Matt Carpenter (6 YRs and $52 MIL)
Matt Szczur – UT (28): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and a Free Agent in 2022.
Javier Baez – 2B/3B (24): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and a Free Agent in 2022.
Mike Montgomery – SP/RP (29): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and a Free Agent in 2022.
Kyle Schwarber – OF (24): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2019 – 2021 and a Free Agent in 2022.
Willson Contreras – C (25): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2022 – 2022 and a Free Agent in 2023.
Albert Almora JR – OF (23): Is Arbitration Eligible from 2022 – 2022 and a Free Agent in 2023.
Rob Zastryzny – RP (25) Is Arbitration Eligible from 2022 – 2022 and a Free Agent in 2023.
Total Money for this Category for 2017: $6.0 MIL MIL Toral Money Oveall – $169.0 MIL
Buyouts/Dead Money
Jason Hammel – $2 Million Buyout for 2017 that was agreed to in a gentleman’s deal. There is no dead money on he books past 2017 thus far.
Conclusions:
Despite the Heyward mistake of a deal, Epstein has done everything right. It will be a constant maneuvering of the incoming talent – to surround the plethora of young superstars the club has.
The Cubs have the availability to sign an elite pitcher in Free Agency in the year or 2, or trade for one. Beyond that, the team can’t make another top 50 ALL – Time Salary roster mistake.
The brass should also investigate early extensions for Bryant, Ruseell and Contreras immediately while they may afford to wait for Hendricks and Schwarber yet.
Some sort of guaranteed money to the budget would be wise
As for Arrieta, he is just too old – an unorthodox in order to grant him the cash he will seek. Epstein has to find creative ways to bring in a #1 or $2 beyond this campaign.
Chicago is fantastic shape financially to spend as much as it takes to ensure a dynasty in the next half-dozen years.
If I were in charge I would try to limit any big historic contracts to their own young superstars from this point forwards.
Also don’t be afraid to trade one of the premiere young offensive players for a quality Starter (#1 or #2 Starter)like Baez, Contreras or Almora.
Follow @chuckbooth3024 @mlbreports
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
I am happy to be back at the helm of the MLB Reports, after completing my record 224 Games in the MLB Trip in 2015. It was the 4th time I have seen all 30 MLB Parks since 2008. During that time away I was fortunate to do 100 Media Interviews
To Subscribe and listen daily to ‘Our Lead Personality’ Sully’s 20 Minutes Daily (every day since Oct.24, 2012) Podcast click here. Guaranteed listening to the Sully Baseball Daily Podcast will be the best time you invest in online!
Washington Nationals Payroll In 2017 + Contracts Going Forward
People can throw stones on Mike Rizzo all they want- but the GM has never lost a trade ever, and he ensured the club received a Starting CF in Adam Eaton to the tune of only $38.4 MIL over the nxxt 5 years – even if it cost a boatload of prospects. This is part to compensate balloon payments on the horizon that are due to both Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. The club is projected to spend around $154 MIL on salary in 2015, but that is without a proven closer. The real question is how far the club will go in money to win in the next 2 seasons before Bryce Harper is a Free Agent?
With the rest of the MLB landscape just obliterating Mike Rizzo for the Adam Eaton trade i will defend him on the caveat that he spends the full amount of available funds saved – in order to take a run at the World Series for the next 2 years while Bryce Harper is still on the club.
At this point. it is a long shot that the DC franchise will be able to retain the 2015 NL MVP’s services as the Nationals already have Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to historical contracts (both top 20).
Washington sees Jayson Werth finally come off the books after this next year. While he will have earned $126 MIL from 2011 – 2017 in his total contract, the club can’t point to this as the worst deal on the club currently.
Ryan Zimmerman is still owed at least $47 MIL over the next 3 years – and has seen his production slip for the last few years.
The Max Scherzer contract does pay him $210 MIL over 7 years (in which he is now in year 3) – however this is deferred over 14 years, so the club can conduct more flexibility in their contracts for the next few years.
Top 5 Projected Holds Leaders For The MLB In 2017
It is one of the harder stats to predict every year, and we are talking about the category of Holds. Last season the New York Yankees disrupted the flow of the entire landscape.
Since the New York club traded both Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, this affected the chances of Dellin Betances winning the year, with him moving to Closer.
Miller himself finished 2nd in the Majors having worked setup for Chapman – and then predominantly clearing the deck for Indians Closer Cody Allen.
Falling into the same atmosphere was perennial winner Tony Watson coming into the 9th inning role once Mark Melancon was dealt to the Washington Nationals. Read the rest of this entry
Top 5 Projected Save Leaders For The MLB In 2017
Aroldis Chapman appeared in 31 Games for the Yankees in 2016, holding 20 Saves and a crisp 2l01 ERA and WHIP of .867. This was done in just over 3 months. With the Yankees kickstarting him up from Spring Training, and without the aid of Andrew Miller as a fallback option, I expect the flamethrowing southpaw to have one of his best seasons ever out of the pen in 2017.
What a scene it will be at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW in he District today where Aroldis Chapman and Joe Maddon will reunite to celebrate their 2016 World Series Championship.
The big Lefty Cuban should be the favorite to win the 2017 Saves Title for the entire MLB. It is not that the Yankees will lead the league in wins – heck they may finish 4th in the AL East. I just believe that with the pop gun offense (say for Gary Sanchez) that the victories will all be closely contested.
I highly thought of Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel for this honor as well, however I like their managers to give them the odd day off ans Save Opportunities.
As of today, we have the Cubs nearing the 100 in plateau again, but just like the aforementioned players above, I think Maddon will use several guys to register Saves for Chicago in 2017 – like Wade Davis, Hector Rondon and Carl Edwards JR.
The reigning World Series Champs are also a lot more prone to blow out teams in a weakened National League where 6 clubs may lose 90 Games or more.
For the sake of preserving arms and fatigue, I would also not be surprised to see a few more SVO’s going to Andrew Miller in lieu of Cody Allen for the AL Pennant winners Cleveland.
(RELATED – Top 5 Home Runs Hitters Projected For The MLB in 2017) Read the rest of this entry
Aroldis Chapman Signing Is The First Step In Yankees Reload
Aroldis Chapman is on pace to be one of the best ALL – Time Closers in the game. Toting a Career ERA of 2.08 – and a incredible 15.2/Per 9 IP SO rate, this man is about as hard to hit as they come. At entering the 2017 season at just Age 28, a 5 year deal worth $86 MIL is not as risky as it sounds. This organization is used to having elite Closers like him during their 23 year over .500 streak, so this is par for the course.
Brian Cashman is handling the offseason like he should. If the brass can somehow pull off a few more trades, than I would really like the projections for future years.
Aroldis Chapman inked a 5 year deal worth $86 MIL (or exactly 5 times the what the Qualifying Offer was this year.) New York didn’t have to pay the Cubs any compensation for the signing since he was traded to Chicago by these very Yankees at the Trade Deadline.
The whole concept of trading players though the year, only to re-ink them after those said seasons, is a practice that MLB clubs have not done in the past.
This is a common maneuver for NHL teams over the last 15 – 20 years, and we may it see it happen a whole lot more in future campaigns.
Not only do the Yankees get their man, but they also are armed with all of the prospects they acquired from the July trade. (Rashad Crawford (minors), Billy McKinney (minors), Gleyber Torres (minors) and Adam Warren. )
Out of those 4 players. Torres may be the best down the road. He may also even free up the ability to deal a Starlin Castro or Didi Gregorius in the next few years.
Warren is probably headed back to the Bullpen permanently again in 2017, however he can still grant you a spot start for the rotation. Read the rest of this entry
Cubs Acquire Closer Wade Davis: It’s A Smarter Maneuver Than You Think
Wade Davis has been one of the filthiest late inning Relievers in the game over last three years, and only comes with a salary for one year at $10 MIL. Chicago is really smart for doing this as Aroldis Chapman cost the Yankees $86 MIL for 5 years yesterday, and Kenley Jansen is not far behind. he Cubs may also give Davis a Qualifying Offer after next season is over. Who knows, maybe he would accept a one year deal at $18 MIL to stay on this World Series Contender. The most important factor in landing Davis is his playoff pedigree. He has proved he is an elite Closer on the grandest of stages – something that Chicago plans to be involved in again to defend their championship.
With the news that the Cubs brought in Wade Davis in exchange for Jorge Soler, the Cubs have effectively brought in a 9th Inning Man – who won the World Series for the Royals in 2015 as their stopper.
Davis will earn $10 MIL in 2017, and can may be extended the Qualifying Offer for 2018 in the process. With another spike potentially in the top 125 salaries (this years total was $17.2 MIL) maybe Davis would take the one year deal for 2018 after this next season.
As one of the game’s premiere Late Inning arms since the 2014 season, Davis is also a perfect replacement for the departing Aroldis Chapman.
With a team that has a World Series under its belt, they just added a Pitcher with a 4 – 0 record, with a 0.84 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in 32 Innings worth of work – spanning the 2014 and 2015 World Series trip for Kansas City. He has performed at the optimal level – under the most pressure. Read the rest of this entry
Odds To Win The 2017 World Series: Nats/Giants/Astros Great Value – Bounce On KC/NYY
For a second straight week we love the Nationals with the best odd value of the week. They have some financial flexibility to bring in a few more ALL – Star Caliber players and also possess the prospects in order to get it done. If you believe (like I do) that the Nats are serious about trading for guys like Andrew McCutchen and Chris Sale, than it is imperative you get this club at their odd this week.
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner)
Follow @stokes_Hunter21 @mlbreports
The Nationals are really making noise about trying to land Andrew McCutchen and Chris Sale. Even if they don’t fulfill the need, I still think they will add more depth via trade for another good Starting Pitcher and also add an impressive CF, and reliever.
We shall wait and see whether or not that could be the likes of Dexter Fowler or a reunion with Ian Desmond to play CF, Aroldis Chapman or Kenley Jansen to be added to for late inning work. At +1200 the Nats are full value for the best odd of the week.
The NL East may be easier to win than the NL West and NL Central if you think the way that most good handicappers are right now. The Mets are dreaming if they think they can contend with 3 Infield Starters with bad backs, and a declining metrics Shortstop, added to not a true CF, and a horrible Catcher offensive situation.
I am trying not to bag on the Mets too much here, as I think they could still rally to win 85 – 90 wins again next year based on the strength of the rest of the Division, it is just the health concerns that would frighten me to pieces. Read the rest of this entry
Is it Time for the Joey Gallo Era for the Texas Rangers?
Over at Off the Bench we’ve written a lot about where this offseason’s free agents might end up. Some of the bigger names that generate all sorts of buzz are the likes of Aroldis Chapman (who threw an incredible pitch), Kenley Jansen, and Yoenis Cespedes, whom we think might end up back with the New York Mets, we were right. We even pondered about the final destination of lower profile players like Michael Saunders, but we never got so deep in the weeds as to discuss the fate of free agent first basemen Mitch Moreland.
Moreland has spent the last few seasons manning first base for the Texas Rangers, taking his place as the lowest profile position player on a team full of offensive studs. With Prince Fielder’s tragic forced retirement this summer, Moreland became the answer to the oft-posed question ‘So who’s the Texas Rangers’ first basemen these days anyway?’
The Nationals Should Definitely Sign Aroldis Chapman!
Aroldis Chapman is on pace to be one of the best ALL – Time Closers in the game. Toting a Career ERA of 2.08 – and a incredible 15.2/Per 9 IP SO rate, this man is about as hard to hit as they come. Entering the 2017 season at just Age 28, I would have no qualms about inking this man to a 6 year deal – worth anywhere from $90 – $100 MIL. He will have a few suitors. With the Nationals having an escalating payroll, this might be the best way to sign one guy to galvanize the team.
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21
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This is an absolutely pivotal year for the Washington Nationals. They have many of their players locked up for 1 – 2 more years, but an escalating payroll also has entered the fray, and now they are in deep trouble to re-sign Bryce Harper when he comes up for Free Agency in 2019.
Looking at the projected player payroll for the current roster – and this franchise sits at about $155 MIL in 2017. They have some maneuvers they could pull off to take the money down slightly.
I would start with trading Gio Gonzalez to free up $12 MIL. This guy is the #4 or #5 at best. Yes we have seen lesser pitchers like Andrew Cashner sign a deal for one year at $10 MIL with the Rangers, however that has more to do with the Texas depth.
By dealing Gonzalez. the Nationals still would have a rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Tanner Roark, Joe Ross and Lucas Giolito, with Reynaldo Lopez and A.J. Cole likely seeing some action first out of the “Taxi squad.”
Quite simply put, the Nationals are extremely talented with 2 pitchers that could win the Cy Young (Scherzer who won it in 2016 and Strasburg, who could have won it had they given out an award at the ALL – Star Break) and up to 3 players that would be listed among the top 15 NL MVP favorites (Harper, Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner), but they do possess a few holes with losing Wilson Ramos and Mar Melancon off the end of the year Roster.
I fully think they should shore up their Late Inning work by signing Aroldis Chapman to whatever he wants this winter. Read the rest of this entry
Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – November 6, 2016
(Jamie Squire/Getty Images North America)
It is the first Sunday Request for the off season.
@sullybaseball We feel the same way about Chapman, but if the Cubs don’t trade for Chapman I don’t think they win the World Series.
— Jim Furlong (@EWOKinLA) November 5, 2016
Beyond my thoughts about Chapman as a human being, his performance as a closer was not exactly awe inspiring. It is tough to call him a difference maker in the World Series.
Closing out a Sunday on this episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.
Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – November 2, 2016
ROB TRINGALI/MLB PHOTOS
Game 7 of the World Series is tonight. What fan base will have their dreams come true? Which fan base will be devastated? What scenarios will be the most crushing? And what other Game 7’s have lived up to the hype?
All will be answered soon but first here is an Episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.
For the up to date standings of Who Owns October and Who Owns the World Series, go to MLB Reports
What is “Who Owns October”? Click HERE for an explanation.
Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – November 1, 2016
(Thomas Ondrey/The Plain Dealer)
Was Game 6 of the 2016 World Series a classic? Actually no. It was kind of a dud. But it was a strange dud whose impact could be felt in Game 7.
It is a Calm Before the Storm Episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.
Jake Arrieta, Kris Bryantand Jason Kipnis all added to their totals for Who Owns October and Who Owns the World Series (WOO and WOWS.)
For the up to date standings of Who Owns October and Who Owns the World Series, go to MLB Reports
What is “Who Owns October”? Click HERE for an explanation.
Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 31, 2016
Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune
Game 5 of the 2016 World Series was a thriller. I gave my in game thoughts and post game opinions as the baseball season moves on to November.
It is a raise the W and extend the season episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.
Jon Lester, Kris Bryant, Bryan Shaw and Rajai Davis all added to their totals for Who Owns October and Who Owns the World Series (WOO and WOWS.)
For the up to date standings of Who Owns October and Who Owns the World Series, go to MLB Reports
What is “Who Owns October”? Click HERE for an explanation.
Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 22, 2016
Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times
Sure there are long suffering Cub fans. There are also long suffering Dodger fans. And they suffered tonight.
Meanwhile Joe Maddon’s decision to celebrate Chapman made me turn off the game.
It is a trade one pain for another episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast
For the up to date standings of Who Owns October, click MLB Reports.
What is “Who Owns October”? Click HERE for an explanation.
2016 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty League Trades Analysis
Following a 2nd place finish in 2015, this is the active roster I ended the year with:
C– Travis d’Arnaud
1B– Brandon Belt
2B– Robinson Cano
3B– Anthony Rendon
SS– Brandon Crawford
LF– Yoenis Cespedes
CF– David Peralta
RF– Bryce Harper
UTL– Daniel Murphy
Starting Pitchers– Madison Bumgarner, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Sonny Gray, Justin Verlander
Relief Pitchers– Ken Giles, Daniel Hudson, Jonathan Papelbon, David Robertson, Shawn Tolleson
Off. Bench– Robinson Chirinos, Justin Bour, Jonathan Schoop, Alex Rodriguez
P. Bench– Nick Martinez, Carlos Rodon, Arquimedes Caminero, Jenrry Mejia, Drew Pomeranz, Tom Koehler
Offensive Prospects– Chance Sisco, A.J. Reed, Kean Wong, Tim Anderson, Jorge Mateo, Eloy Jimenez, Manuel Margot, Bradley Zimmer, Brett Phillips
Pitching Prospects– Edwin Diaz, Anderson Espinoza, Michael Fulmer, Taylor Guerrieri, Pierce Johnson, Yoan Lopez, Francis Martes, Alex Reyes, Jack Flaherty, Casey Meisner, Luis Ortiz
While I did finish the season in 2nd, my roster needed some serious improvements. I had a lot of faith in my ability to scout prospects, so I figured it was time to unload some prospects for win-now talent and trust my ability to refill my minor league system with less publicized talent. You can see all of the trades I made in the offseason and during the 2016 season in order from oldest to most recent below (all trades made prior to the season are in bold and in season is in italics):
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Who Owns October In MLB Playoffs 2016? (#WOO) Tallies Updated For October 11, 2016
Wally Skalij / Los Angels Times
There are some agonizing 1/2 WOOs in San Francisco and a wild game played in Los Angeles. The playoffs are taking shape.
Time to see who owned October.
Each winning team for every post season game gets a pitcher and a hitter who earn a full WOO (Who Owns October.)
And at my discretion, I award a 1/2 WOO’S to a worthy player on the losing team.
At the end of the post season, we will see who had the highest WOO total as a pitcher and a hitter.
A complete description of the rules can be found HERE.
From October 11th.
NL Division Series Game 4:
Receiving 1 WOO’s
Aroldis Chapman struck out the side and clinched the Division Series for the Cubs, 6-5 in San Francisco.
Adrian Gonzalez homered and walked, driving in a pair and helped the Dodgers force a deciding game with Washington with a 6-5 final.
Clayton Kershaw struck out 11 Nationals in 6 2/3 innings and doubled and scored.The bullpen let the inherited runners score, making his ERA look ugly, but in the end he set up the Dodgers dramatic 6-5 victory.
Ben Zobrist hit a key double that sparked the Cubs stunning 9th inning rally, driving in a run and scoring a run to break the Giants hearts, 6-5.
Receiving 1/2 WOO’s
Conor Gillaspie continued his October heroics with 4 hits, an RBI and a run scored. But he could not prevent the bullpen disaster that is the 2016 Giants and the Cubs took the game and the series, 6-5.
Matt Moore allowed 2 hits and 1 earned run and 1 unearned run over 8 brilliant innings, striking out 10 along the way. But the Giants bullpen had a total meltdown and the Cubs scored 4 in the 9th and completed the Division Series, 6-5.
Daniel Murphy drove in 4 runs with a pair of hits including a game tying knock in the 7th. The Nationals would lose the game to the Dodgers, 6-5.
Current ‘WOO’ Totals MLB 2016:
Hitters ‘WOO’ MLB 2016,
Josh Donaldson – Blue Jays 2, Conor Gillaspie – Giants 1 1/2, Daniel Murphy – Nationals 1 1/2, Justin Turner – Dodgers 1 1/2, Javier Baez – Cubs 1, Mookie Betts – Red Sox 1, Coco Crisp – Indians 1, Edwin Encarnacion – Blue Jays 1, Dexter Fowler – Cubs 1, Adrian Gonzalez – Dodgers 1, Brandon Guyer – Indians 1, Shawn Kelley – Nationals 1, Jason Kipnis – Indians 1, Joe Panik – Giants 1, Troy Tulowitzki – Blue Jays 1, Jayson Werth – Nationals 1, Ben Zobrist – Cubs 1, Elvis Andrus – Rangers 1/2, Andrew Benintendi – Red Sox 1/2, Gregor Blanco – Giants 1/2, Kris Bryant – Cubs 1/2, Ian Desmond – Rangers 1/2, Curtis Granderson – Mets 1/2, Rougned Odor – Rangers 1/2, Buster Posey – Giants 1/2, Carlos Ruiz – Dodgers 1/2, Mark Trumbo – Orioles 1/2,
Pitchers ‘WOO’ MLB 2016,
Roberto Osuna – Blue Jays 2, Madison Bumgarner – Giants 1, Aroldis Chapman – Cubs 1, Marco Estrada – Blue Jays 1, Kenley Jansen – Dodgers 1, Clayton Kershaw – Dodgers 1, Derek Law – Giants 1, Jon Lester – Cubs 1, Mark Melancon – Nationals 1, Andrew Miller – Indians 1, Marcus Stroman – Blue Jays 1, Josh Tomlin – Indians 1, Travis Wood – Cubs 1, Jake Arrieta – Cubs 1/2, Johnny Cueto – Giants 1/2, Matt Moore – Giants 1/2, Darren O’Day – Orioles 1/2, Noah Syndergaard – Mets 1/2,
Yankees Switch Roles at Trade Deadline, Help Fuel Potentially Historic World Series Matchup
Whether you’re a fan of the New York Yankees or not, a couple things are universally known about the organization: they’ve won a lot of World Series titles and normally do whatever it takes to win. The Bronx Bombers could have an impact on the Fall Classic again come October, but not because they’re participating in it.
Actually deciding to be a seller at the MLB trade deadline wasn’t the shocking part. Given their average play, it made sense for general manager Brian Cashman to trade Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller (among others) when their perceived value was high. However, helping the Chicago Cubs and Cleveland Indians – two teams suffering through very long championship droughts – possibly get over the hump was a rather interesting twist.
It’s been a while since either of these organizations reached the pinnacle of the sport, but they each have reason to believe this is the year it comes to an end.
Yankees Get A King’s Ransom From The Chicago Cubs For Aroldis Chapman
Many people believed the New York Yankees were going to be in “sell” mode this trade deadline, but today might have confirmed that notion. Reports say the Yankees have dealt four-time all-star, Aroldis Chapman, to the Chicago Cubs for what is believed to be four players. These players include the Cubs’ best prospect, Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Adam Warren, and one other. I’m sure the Yankees weren’t too keen on rebuilding, but it is too hard to pass up this offer the Chicago Cubs made.
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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – July 25, 2016
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images North America
Robin Ventura has been White Sox manager longer than many Presidents have been in office. Yet despite being in charge of a losing team coming apart at the seams, he is still employed.
Meanwhile I am not happy with the Cubs looking to deal for Aroldis Chapman because of his domestic violence past.
It is a “My Kind of Town” episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.
Jose Altuve, Jesse Hahn, Yasmany Tomas, Steven Matz, Kendrys Morales, Wilson Ramos, Jose Urena and Corey Kluber all added to their totals for Who Owns Baseball yesterday.
See the updated listing of WOB on MLB Reports
‘BBA Live’ Podcast – Year 2 Ep #12 – MLB Wk 6 ’16:
BBBA Live is the flagship Podcast of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance since 2015.
Hosts Ricky Keeler Follow @rickinator555
& AC Wayne Follow @publicrecord
BBA Live! is entering its second season. Listen in as AC Wayne and Ricky Keeler of Yanks Go Yard and District On Deck (Nats) welcome in Christine E. of Boston Red Thoughts to the podcast.
Follow @bostonredthots
As always, we’ll discuss all of the evening’s games and headlines.
Royals are struggling. The Tigers may be digging themselves an insurmountable hole in the AL Central, and many clubs we thought would contend in the AL, are obviously not playing well.
Lorenzo Cain goes off on the Yankees, and Aroldis Chapman is off his suspension
Plus nobody is a better folk hero than Bartolo Colon.
Bryce Harper is getting the Barry Bonds treatment and is starting to snap.
Follow and subscribe to the podcast http://www.blogtalkradio.com/mets-public-record
A casual look at Major League Baseball and The New York Mets. Call-in! #347-326-9300
6 Big Disappointments So Far During The 2016 MLB Season
Photo – David J. Phillip. USA Today Sports
Matt Musico (Featured BBBA Writer/Owner – chinmusicbaseball.com)
Follow @mmusico8 Follow @mlbreports
One month does not a baseball season make, but it still doesn’t mean we’re not pulling our hair out due to incredibly sluggish starts from normally dependable players.
As the calendar flips to May, those small sample sizes we’ve been talking about are getting big enough to become a legitimate concern.
With five months left on the regular-season schedule, there’s still plenty of time to turn things around, but it’ll take longer for stats to return to career norms.
Based on 2015 and what happened throughout the winter months, there were a bunch of players expected to make a significant impact on the field.
Now that April is in the books, we can see the opposite has happened. Here are six big disappointments so far during this young MLB season.
(Joey Votto is a pretty obvious one, so I excluded him on purpose.)
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New York Yankees Must Make Changes To Take Advantage Of Their Greatest Asset
Matt Musico (Featured BBBA Writer/Owner – chinmusicbaseball.com)
Follow @mmusico8 Follow @mlbreports
The New York Yankees entered 2016 with questions surrounding both the rotation and starting lineup, but nobody questioned one spot of the roster: the bullpen. Dellin Betances,Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman would combine for a three-headed monster of potentially historic proportions.
Games against the Bronx Bombers would basically be over before the seventh-inning stretch. Right?
While Chapman is still serving his 30-game suspension and hasn’t debuted yet, a sluggish April has prevented New York from utilizing what we all figured would be its greatest strength.
General manager Brian Cashman has toed the line between getting younger and remaining competitive for quite a while and has done a great job.
He found Derek Jeter’s successor in Didi Gregorius and despite not signing an MLB free agent this past winter, he made what appeared to be solid additions in Chapman, Starlin Castro and Aaron Hicks.
However, the one thing on Cashman’s to-do list that he couldn’t cross off was finding depth (or just better options) for the starting rotation.
He even sacrificed some depth by sending Adam Warren to the Chicago Cubs in the Castro trade.
This area was a cause for concern, but there seemed to be enough positives where an overwhelming bullpen would make up the difference.
It hasn’t.
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“Stoking The Fire Segment” – Tanaka Will Miss Over A Years Worth Of Work In 7 Year Deal From ‘TJS’ Avoidance
Pitching with a partially torn UCL in his pitching arm since July of 2014, the Yankees and Tanaka’s camp have avoided having Tommy John Surgery thus far, but how far can they go in avoiding the procedure? I also make the point that even if the Yankees ace somehow eludes the injury for the duration of his 7 year contract – that the fans are only seeing him at 85 – 90%. I thought the move was to have TJ Surgery in 2014, and upon returning from it, he would be able to turn it lose like an ace should.
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) Follow @stokes_Hunter21
Follow The MLBreports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports
What is better: 5 Years and an average of 200 Innings Thrown, or 6 years of throwing 150 – 165 IP?
The diagnosis of Masahiro Tanaka‘s slightly torn elbow was first disclosed in July of 2014. Had he gone for Tommy John Surgery there for repair, he could be back at full strength right about now in time.
Instead of going ahead with a procedure (that is operating at about an 86% rate of full return for pitchers,) the Japanese born Tanaka has been nursing the injury since the start of the 2015 season.
Having signed a 7 year deal worth $155 MIL – that also included a $20 MIL posting fee, the Yankees were hoping to land an ace that could pivot their rotation from 2014 – 2020.
While it is amazing the man can even throw with this lingering issue, Tanaka authored a great WHIP of 0.994 and a respectable ERA of 3.51 in 24 Game Starts during 2015. Here is the problem though, he missed 2 months of the season when his elbow flared up. Read the rest of this entry
MLB Power Rankings: April 2016
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21
Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports
Disclaimer: We based these rankings on best strength to win the World Series. Therefore some teams that have an easier division to play in, with the least path of resistance to the postseason overall may be ranked a lot higher than a club who is equally talented, yet may play in a juggernaut of a division.
Yesterday won’t change much for the rankings. Although it kicked off interleague with the Royals beating the Mets 4 – 3, and starts the Junior Circuit looking to win the AL vs NL competition for a 13th straight year.
Pittsburgh also beat the Cardinals. I have them both ending the year win 91 victories, but these squad’s really intrigue me.
There are a multitude of reasons why I have picked the Cubs as the #1 team. I explain them in the writeup.
Each Monday, we will post a new set of power rankings and go over the week that was. Read the rest of this entry
National League Rookie Of The Year Odds In MLB 2016 Action
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21
Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports
Corey Seager is not even in the lineup to open the season but he is the overwhelming favorite to the win the NL Rookie Of The Year Award in 2016 MLB Action.
Update: I was wrong, Seager is was in the lineup for the opener. Having said this, there is no value to bet on him at the odd given, even though he is the overwhelming favorite.
Like we said the American League odds list, there is never a real need to play a whole season to win this award. That is unless you have to compete against a 2015’s winner in Kris Bryant, who was brought up in mid April last year.
Really this is Seager’s spot to lose.
I hate the odds for a guy who is injured to begin the campaign, nonetheless he would still be my pick for the Award.
Steven Matz has dubbed the 2nd favorite – along with Kenta Maeda. Both of these guys broke camp with the big club, and could make 26 – 30 starts this year.
I love the odd better for Maeda, who is slotted higher in the rotation than Matz. These odds are not glamorous to wager on either.
Perhaps the most intriguing guy on the list is Trevor Story. He is the starting shortstop while Jose Reyes is still on the inactive list – awaiting a resolution (suspension) for his part in a domestic dispute in Hawaii over the winter.
Baseball’s Biggest “Get Out Of Jail Free Cards” For Financial Contracts Over The Last Few Years
Several players have either retired for various reasons, or have served suspensions in which their organization has received an unexpected benefit of salary relief for it in recent years. This will need to be addressed in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement to be forthcoming after this next season.
Hunter Stokes (MLB Reports Part _Owner – Chief Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21
Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports
Before I go into this fully, this is a bit different of an article than “Hoodini Acts” pulled by GM’s in getting out from under horrible contracts, such as the praise for former Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos fleecing the Angels to take Vernon Wells, and being lucky enough for the White Sox to claim Alex Rios.
Those moves paved the way for Toronto to sign Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion to replace those crappy deals with awesome ones, so there is a note of credit to AA.
The new CBA forthcoming should be addressing on how player contracts work towards team salaries when it is due for suspension or retirement. Last week’s sudden packing in the cleats from Adam LaRoche will actually benefit the White Sox with $13 MIL in salary relief.
It is not the 1st time a guy has retired during a contract, and it is the latest where a team may be drawing a sigh of relief.
It wasn’t even the 1st instance of the winter. Earlier this off year, Mets OF Michael Cuddyer retired with one year of service left on his deal. This move led the Mets to have a few extra dollars in their seat cushion to re-ink Yoenis Cespedes to a 1 Year $27.5 MIL deal
Cuddyer was still expensive for New York with a 1sr RD Draft pick forfeit, but at least he only cost the club $8.5 MIL on 1 season, as opposed to an additional $12.5 MIL this upcoming campaign.
If the Mets are still under contract with this guy it makes re-signing Cespedes a tougher deal. Not only cash wise, but it was also clogging up another spot on the Roster if New York had to keep the under-performing former Rockies and Twins player.
Instead, all of the fans wishes were granted when Cespedes came back to Flushing Meadows, and you can add the fact they also re-upped with Bartolo Colon for another year as yet another extension of the Cuddyer decision. Read the rest of this entry
New York Yankees Payroll In 2016 + Contracts Going Forward
With almost $100 MIL tied up in contracts for Sabathia, A-Rod, Teixeira and a potential Tommy John Surgery candidate in Masahiro Tanaka, this New York squad is in some deep trouble for this season if injuries occur. It may take a small miracle for them to make a playoff spot next campaign again without spending some cash.
Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead Analyst) Follow @chuckbooth3024
Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports
Brian Cashman can finally see some relief from some exorbitant contracts plaguing him from the last several years.
2016 sees the last year on deals for Aroldis Chapman, C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran. Alex Rodriguez is still on the book for one more year after this.
Sabathia does have a Vesting Option for $25 MIL if salary guaranteed if he 1) does not end 2016 on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury, 2) does not spend more than 45 days in 2016 on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury or 3) does not make more than six relief appearances in 2016 because of a left shoulder injury.
The Yankees can’t guarantee this will happen. Therefore the club must treat this contract as part of their deal for 2017 as well. The Buyout would be $5 MIL.
Sabathia’s drinking aside, they are paying for the good years right now, and he is no better than a 5th Starter – and at 36 years of age with 3000+ IP logged for his career, there may be not much left in the tank. Read the rest of this entry
Did The Yankees Make A Mistake Trading For Aroldis Chapman?
Trey Rose (Featured Fantasy Baseball Writer/Owner – dynastydigest.sportsblog.com) Follow @dynasty_digest
Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter Follow @mlbreports
On December 29th, 2015, the New York Yankees completed a trade with the Cincinnati Reds that solidified what could be one of the best bullpens in Major League Baseball history.
The Cincinnati Reds sent closer, Aroldis Chapman, to the New York Yankees for prospects Rookie Davis, Caleb Cotham, Tony Renda, and Eric Jagielo.
Prior to the trade, Jagielo was ranked as the Yankees 6th best prospect and Davis as the 10th best prospect in their system by MLB.com.
It is worth noting that prior to this trade, it was reported that the Los Angeles Dodgers completed a trade with the Cincinnati Reds, which involved top prospect Jose Peraza, but this trade fell through after some shocking news was released about Aroldis Chapman.
MLB Reports 
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