The Home Run Derby is made for the fans, specifically it’s ideal for kids. As we become a jaded society drowning in overexposure to soundbites and headlines, the home run derby still provides a respite to dream on what is possible. We get to watch a collection of the best home run hitters in the world strut their stuff, flex their muscles, and display the skill of their perfectly honed swings. This year, Giancarlo Stanton reminded us all that he’s the modern home run king. He’s not the first home run king; though and Off the Bench just ran a great infographic recapping some of the awesome performances of the past.

Over the course of the past two weeks, the Boston Red Sox have been very active in the trade market, first by acquiring Aaron Hill from the Milwaukee Brewers, then by adding Brad Ziegler in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Most recently, Dave Dombrowksi made a bold move to acquire lefty Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres in exchange for highly-regarded pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza. With these additions, the Red Sox have improved all three major areas of need: bench depth, the bullpen, and the rotation. Dombrowski may or may not be done dealing, but regardless of what he does moving forward, the pressure has been put on the remaining teams in the AL East to make moves to improve their own rosters. The Orioles may have been leading the division entering play Sunday, but they have needs of their own, and both the Red Sox and Blue Jays are hot on their trail. The Yankees and Rays, on the other hand, may be falling out of the race, but still have reason to be active as the trade deadline nears.

Given the increase in trade market activity in recent weeks, I would like to look at which moves each remaining team in the AL East should make before the trade deadline, whether that means to improve their playoff chances, or to plan for 2017 and beyond. Below, you will find three tables showing both hitting and pitching statistics for each AL East team (numbers courtesy of FanGraphs). Notice which team ranks first in each table. Hint: the leaders for OPS, starting pitcher ERA, and bullpen ERA are each a different playoff contender.

*All records and stats as of the start of play on Sunday, July 17^th.

Baltimore Orioles, 53-36, .596, 43 RDif, 1^st in AL East

Trade for Oakland LHP Rich Hill

Don’t look too much into the fact that the Orioles are currently in first place in the standings. While Baltimore’s offense is legit, owning the highest isolated slugging number in the East with a .194 mark, they have some serious concerns in their starting rotation. Despite a very good first half from staff Ace Chris Tillman (13-2, 3.29 ERA) the O’s still rank last in the division with a 5.10 staff ERA. Behind Tillman, the rotation has not been so pretty for the Orioles, and even Tillman himself may be pitching above his capabilities, as he sports a 4.23 FIP.

The Athletics reportedly asked the Red Sox for Anderson Espinoza in exchange for Rich Hill, but Boston instead sent Espinoza to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz. Oakland’s asking price is certainly a steep one, but it makes sense that they would want so much for a starter who has accumulated a 2.25 ERA and 10.7 K/9 rate through 76 innings in 2016. Hill would be a welcome addition to the Baltimore rotation, but only if they can avoid parting with top prospect Hunter Harvey. A couple of next level prospects, however, may be enough to get a deal done, as Oakland knows that it needs to cash in on Hill before he becomes a free agent at season’s end. Max even covered a possible A’s-O’s trade match back in May.

Please visit Off The Bench to continue reading Alex Vacca’s post about what the Rays, Blue Jays and Yankees Should Do Next.

By Josh:

The All Star game is done and now teams are preparing for the final run towards the playoffs.  Teams amp up their conversations for potential trades, focus on getting every player healthy, and set their roster to give them every chance at winning they can.

The first half of the season has given us a pretty good idea of who will be in the playoffs but the great thing about baseball is that teams that seem to be out of the playoff hunt can make things interesting.  Here are my thoughts for each of the six division races.

Read the rest of Run To The Playoffs via 9 Inning Know It All

Today is the worst day of the year. A day we all fear in the weeks that precede it, and shudder to recall in the weeks that follow. Today, the day after the All-Star game, is the Day Without Baseball.

I know,  there are other days without baseball– every day from November through late February, for instance– but today is worse: it’s a Day Without Sports. There is no baseball, no football, no basketball, no big time college sports, and not even any hockey. There is nothing; only darkness.

Don’t turn on SportsCenter. There is nothing. (Unless you care to watch Marcellus Wiley opine on the state of the Buffalo Bills’ interior defensive line and how they might fare if it snows during their Week 4 matchup or some such nonsense.) SportsCenter is dead. Without sport, can there be a SportCenter?

For years I’ve dreaded this day, but over time I’ve developed some sure fire strategies for weathering the storm and making it until Friday when baseball’s second half finally begins. Today, I will let you in on 8 of my secrets, and with a little luck, we’ll get through this long night together.

1. Read a baseball blog: Look at this! You’ve already done this one! Great start. Reading baseball blogs is a great way to avoid the misery of not watching actual baseball. Blogs, like Off the Bench, provide thought-provoking analysis that will keep you occupied until first pitch tomorrow. Sometimes they even offer clever survival guides like this one. Go ahead and bookmark our site to be sure to enjoy our insight even on Days with Baseball.
2. Play OOTP: OOTP Baseball is hands down the best baseball simulator available. Every year, the guys over at OOTP send us a new copy to review and every year it blows us away. Want to test a theory that no team should ever sign a player to a contract longer than 3 season? Go for it. Want to fix a crappy real life team? Have at it. Want to pretend it’s 1871 and see what an inaugural baseball draft is like? Here you go. OOTP is a great way to get your baseball fix.
3. Make a baseball out of….

Please visit the (mostly) baseball blog to find out other important strategies for surviving baseball’s darkest day.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are shopping Jon Niese, but that may prove to be a difficult task. Our Trademas In July series kicks off with a look at the market for his services.

You hear it all the time when you speak to Pittsburgh Pirates fans who happen to be fathers. When they tell you that their young child is taking up baseball, the standard retort is always heard.

“Make him into a left handed pitcher!”

Indeed, left handed pitchers – both starters and bullpen arms – have always been a hot commodity for Major League Baseball clubs this time of year. The Pirates found themselves at the start of 2016 with not one, not two, but three left-handers in their rotation.

Now, after clawing their way back into postseason contention after a legendary June swoon, the club might have the opportunity to spin one of those left handers to fill other team needs. Those needs are debatable and ever-changing, but for now let’s focus on gauging the market for one Jon Niese.

Pirates are shopping, but is anyone buying?

Niese came to the Pirates billed as an average mid-level starter whose value gets boosted by a solid ground ball rate. Niese has made good on that bill of sale, as his 53.3 percent ground ball rate leads all Pittsburgh starters. Of course, Neal Huntington likely did not expect to be saddled with a ballooned HR/9 rate of 1.8. That figure represents more than double his home run rate for the three previous years combined (0.8).

The home runs Niese has allowed have been many and varied, but it’s not just the long ball that is leading him to an ERA of 5.13 and a FIP of 5.49. Averaging 11 hits per nine innings doesn’t help, and his walks per nine of 3.2 is an increase over the past two years as well.

Back all of this up with strikeout ability that is average at best (Niese has the lowest swinging strike percentage – 7.2 percent – of any Pirates starter with a minimum of 50 IP), and you have to start to wonder if being a left-handed pitcher with controllable years is enough to cover all of these warts.

Finding a potential fit

Nevertheless, the Pittsburgh Pirates are shopping Niese, and despite his foibles, there may yet be a market for him. His contract – Niese is owed $10 million in 2017 and $11 million in 2018 – is attractive due to the twin $500,000 buyouts tagged to each year. In this way, Niese could serve as a bridge for a team with big plans on the 2018 free agent pitching market. By most reports, the 2017 market is weak. Teams may be looking for a stop gap that can be easily shuffled off.

Due to the second wild card, at least 19 teams are expected to buyers to some degree in 2016. By virtue of this, the Pirates can scratch off the Dodgers, Marlins, Mets and Cardinals as potential dance partners. This leaves the pool a little lean, and may force the club to look to the American League for someone to bite on Niese’s services.

The prospect of Niese pitching in the junior circuit may seem ill-advised on the surface, but the wild card picture in the AL is even more jumbled than the NL. Six teams are within 5.5 games of the wild card, leaving only four teams that are truly out of the picture.

A better option even at an advanced age

Of course, chief among the many reasons teams might be reluctant to grab Niese is the abundance of flat-out better options. If we assume that teams would be interested in Niese chiefly from the combination of the flexbility of his contract combined with his left-handedness, teams may prefer to prioritize one of those factors over the other.

If other GMs take that route, Rich Hill immediately jumps to mind. Hill has resurrected his career at the age of 36 after some hard-luck years plagued by injury. We have previously wondered if he’d be a fit for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and with good reason: he comes very cheap. Making $6 million for 2016, Hill’s contract is eerily similar to J.A. Happ‘s 2015 salary of $6.7 million, which Huntington did not balk at.

By all accounts, the Oakland Athletics need to restock at key positions, and it might take a mid-level prospect not named Reese McGuire or Kevin Newman to part with him. But, don’t be surprised if Billy Beane woudl take Niese in a deal such as this. Beane has shown to make “baseball trades” at the past few years – think of Yoenis Cespedes for Jon Lester – and would need someone to eat innings before his own prospects are ready. This is where Niese’s contract could play a big role.

Whether the Pirates end up with Hill’s services or not, he represents a much better value over Niese.

A higher ceiling lurking in Tampa and elsewhere

Matt Moore is another controllable left-hander that could fetch better interest than Niese. Though Moore has had some struggles of his own, he has a bit more strikeout ability than Niese while allowing nearly the same amount of HR/9 at 1.1. However, Moore has shown considerably better flashes than Niese, including an All-Star 2013 that saw him post a 17-4 record with a 3.29 ERA/3.95 FIP in 27 starts.

Moore’s contract also contains multiple team options, but that is about where the similarities end.

Though the buyouts are more significant, teams may not balk at those if they believe they would have a better return.

There are a myriad of other options as well, perhaps none of which is a hotter name than the Padres’ Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz has been a steady performer for the past several years, but has increased his strikeout rate to 10.1 in 2016. This newfound swing-and-miss ability has put his name on the lips of many this trade season. He, too, comes with three years of control, as he will hit his first round of arbitration after this year.

Conclusions

Though many teams can always use a starting pitcher at the deadline, the market for Niese is likely to cannibalize itself. Normally, a left-handed controllable pitcher would be in high demand, but as we see here, there are better options for a team looking for a rental, and better options for a team looking for someone with control. Niese thus falls into a strange limbo in between these two approaches.

Though the Pittsburgh Pirates may hope to salvage something from Niese, the reality of the market may have other ideas.

Read more on the Pittsburgh Pirates at Pirates Breakdown.