Yes the Rays are playing terrible baseball at 15 – 21, but they are only 4 games behind the playoff bar. They always start off the year slow – and the exponentially become better as the year wears on. When Alex Cobb comes back – they have the best Starting Rotation in the AL East, and I think they are most capable of making a run at a playoff berth. At +3300, Tied for 14th longest odd, I am placing them the best value on the board, given their pedigree for strong second half’s.
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My best value picks last week I was 3 – 2, 1. The Royals dropped from +3500 – +5000, 2. Reds went from +5000 – +4000, TB went from +2500 – +3300, as the Orioles went from +5000 – 4500, and the Cards went from +1100 – +1000.
I still believe the Royals will turn around their season – and may beat the AL teams cannibalizing each other for a Wild Card Stretch. They went 47 – 34 down the pike, and may just be a better 2nd half club.
The Orioles at +700 for the AL East is a better wager than the +4500 right now, as i don’t believe they have the tools to win the World Series, but they could eek out the Division.
The Reds are hanging in despite injury, and I think the Brewers will fall back, so it is just the Cards to contend with in the long run, and Cincy is just 1 Game behind those guys. +4000 is still a great value.
The Rays are totally struggling as we speak at 15 – 21, however they are just 4 games behind the playoff bar, and should be receiving Alex Cobb back shortly.
Out of all of the AL East teams, they are probably best suited for a 20 – 5 stretch with their pitching. They will be the best odd this week.
Worst Odds on the Board I was right in my assessment on 2, broke even on the other 2 – and neglected to think the Jays would move up, but they did from +3000 – +2800. SF and Oak were the draws both keeping their previous odd.
The #1 worst odd pick of last week was Boston, and they dropped from +1200 +1400.
My 2nd worst odd was Cleveland at +5500 – and they skyrocketed down the road all the way to +8000.
So for the week, I fashioned a 5 – 3 – 2 overall record for value plays. Keep reading at the end of this post too see my picks this week. Read the rest of this entry