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Odds To Win The 2016 NL MVP In The MLB: Best And Worst Bets

Yasiel Puig looked like he could be an all world player when he first started his career, however his lackluster attitude over the last few years has people wondering whether or not he will ever make good on his talent.

Yasiel Puig looked like he could be an all world player when he first started his career, however his lackluster attitude over the last few years has people wondering whether or not he will ever make good on his talent.  His OPS has gone from .925 to .863 to .758 in the last 3 years respectively.  At his optimum output in 2013, that would at least put him consideration for votes toward the award.

Hunter Stokes (MLB Reports Part _Owner – Chief Writer) 

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Much like the ‘Senior Circuit’ itself, the contenders for the 2016 NL MVP is very top heavy.  Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton are the top 4 favorites to win the Award.

Harper at +200 is not a foregone conclusion, and as just 2/1 odds, the number is not great to wager.  I do think the man will win 5 of the next 10 MVP Awards, so I am not placing that mark in the bad value either.

Giancarlo Stanton would have a great chance to win the honor if he could stay healthy – with the Marlins being over .500 for the first time since 2008.  It is possible the big slugger could bash out 10 more Home Runs to the next day.

Andrew McCutchen is a perennial contender who should also be in the mix this season.  If the Pirates win 90 games again, which I project them to, then Cutch should have another top 5 finish.

Paul Goldschmidt at +550, with a chance for the D’Backs to be in the fight all year could finally be the defining moment for the guy who has finished 2nd in the voting for the last 2 years he has played a full year. Read the rest of this entry

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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – March 2, 2015

photo

Comedian Erin Foley returns for part 2 of our conversation where we talk fantasy baseball, her hatred of A-Rod and all sorts of other things that only two old friends can do.

It is an irrational anger episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

Follow Erin on Twitter by clicking HERE

Subscribe to Erin’s brilliant podcast Sports Without Balls by clicking HERE

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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – February 27, 2015

Photo by John Rudoff

Photo by John Rudoff

Brilliant comedian Erin Foley, as seen on Conan and in the movie Almost Famous, returns as a guest on The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast. She is the creator and host of my favorite sports podcast Sports Without Balls.

Erin and I talk about Red Sox, Yankees, Kenny Rogers (both of them), her parents and what would have happened if we had kids together.

Follow Erin on Twitter by clicking HERE

Subscribe to Sports Without Balls by clicking HERE

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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – May 5, 2014

Topps inc

Topps inc

Former Texas Rangers slugger Kevin Mench is the guest today.

We discussed playing with Alex Rodriguez, John Rocker and Carl Everett and playing for the surprisingly good 2004 Texas Rangers.

That and more on today’s episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

Justin Verlander, Roberto Hernandez, Brandon Crawford, Dayan Viciedo, Corey Kluber, Gio Gonzalez, George Kottaras and Jonathan LuCroy all added to their totals for Who Owns Baseball.

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“Mr. Puig” And “Mr. Montero” More Namely: Step Away From The Buffet Table In The Offseason!

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer): 

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It happens to a few guys every year.  Seldomly does it threaten to plague a guys career.

I can think of Carl Everett blossoming over his transition to the 2005 World Series White Sox win, to a big man in Seattle, who could hardly swing his hips around.

We remember how big Kevin Mitchell became after he was in such phenomenal condition early in his career.  But 40 pounds overweight like Jesus Montero waddled into the Mariners Spring Training? C’mon Man!

The only happy guy out of this news has to be Yasiel Puig, who is donning the scales 26 LBS heavier than when we saw him last. Read the rest of this entry

The Lighter Side Of The MLB: Memories, Characters And Things That Make Me Laugh

By Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Analyst/Website Owner):

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Okay, the MLB has has had their fair share of characters and memories that illustrate how funny some things are.  We all like to blow these up on social media circles.

In this article, I just wanted to share some of these occurrences I have found amusing – also some of things that have cracked up some of our writers at this website.

Of course, we also have Paul Sullivan (AKA Sully) who usually makes people laugh once a podcast because he is a former comedian.

Some of his things that make us laugh are:  “Did you know that Mariano Rivera is retiring?” diatribes and explaining WAR to novice baseball people is also classic.

Sully likes to emphasize that he understands sabermetrics, but several other of our listeners have cracked up at his pronunciation of BABIP. Read the rest of this entry

Having A Great DH Can Mean Winning The AL Pennant: For Other Teams – The Position Is A Waste!

David Ortiz has been the quintessential DH in the AL over the last 11 years.  Boston is in contention perenially because he put up great #s compared to his competition.

David Ortiz has been the quintessential DH in the AL over the last 11 years. Boston are perennial contenders because he put up great #s compared to his competition.  Ortiz had a great 2013 campaign – where he 3 Slashed .309/.395./.959 – with 30 HRs and 103 RBI in just 137 Games Played.  Ortiz is .292/.390/.962 in 11 Years with Boston, with 373 HRs and 1191 RBI.  The Red Sox won the World Series in 2004 and 2007 with him at DH, and are looking to win again this year.

By Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Analyst/Website Owner):

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Watching the 2013 season, something really resonated with me while watching the American League:  ‘Where have all the great designated hitters in MLB gone?’  

It is surprising to me that teams haven’t figured out that having a dominant DH in the league could mean the difference in winning the AL pennant or not.

I also believe that players should be moved their earlier than in their mid 30’s.  If they can’t play the field at all, or are not superior at offense, they should be made to Pinch-hit in the NL. 

It seemed only a few years ago that every team had a bopper capable of hitting .300 with 30 HR’S and 100 RBI’s.  Upon further investigation, I found out some interesting facts.

Read the rest of this entry

Washington Nationals-The Pitchers and Hitters: 2005-2012 Best 25 Man Roster (Part 5 of Expos/Nats Series)

Wednesday July 25, 2012

Note from Chuck Booth:  I am attempting to bring the history for each of the 30 MLB Franchises into a 5 part series that will focus on 1. The teams history. 2. The hitters 3. The pitchers. 4.  The Team’s Payroll going into in 2013 and 5. (The stadium articles will all be done next summer when I go to all of the parks in under a month again.)  To follow all of the updates, be sure to check my author page with a list of all archived articles here.

Livan Hernandez leads the 2005-2012 version of the franchise in ALL-Time wins and innings pitched.

Chuck Booth (Lead baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)- I think it safe to say that the best days of the Washington Nationals are purely ahead of them.  They have a great nucleus of young talent with Stephen Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Drew Storen, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Mike Morse and Gio Gonzalez.  These guys are so good that they all made the ALL-Time 25 man roster for the 2005-2012 Washington Nationals.  I am a firm believer that these guys will be the best team in the National League within 2 or 3 years.  I like Ted Lerner’s attitude on spending for now.  This will ensure the money will be spent on the team to keep competing for the city of Washington’s 1st World Series Title since 1924.  I would venture to say that not many living  fans of the old Washington Senators saw the club hoisting the trophy 88 years ago. 

The Nationals Park went soaring up my ranks as a baseball venue to see in the 30 stadium circuit.  This place is now electric.  I was so elated when I was able to see Strasburg pitch and win for the Nationals back in April.  Next year I hope to see Bryce Harper play ball  when I go on another 30 park tour.   Next year is when I will have the official rankings of all of the ballparks posted here.  I can assure you that the President’s Race will probably be voted the most popular race of any in the Majors at the parks.  My humblest of apologies to the sausage race fans in Milwaukee and racing legend heads in Arizona.  I still follow the campaign to ‘Let Teddy Win’, however that may take all of the fun out of it if Teddy does win one of those races.

As a fan of the old Expos franchise, I have a soft spot in my heart for the Washington Nationals.  Playing meaningful baseball in September and October this year would be incredible to witness.  So without further speak, let us start with our 25 man roster for the best players in the last 8 years.  I picked the roster based on longevity or utter greatness for a couple of players.  If this team was to play an alumni game right now, all of the positions would be filled.  I don’t think I excluded anyone entirely crucial here.  Please feel free to let me know if I did on any social platform.  If you make a solid case for someone for whom I may have omitted, I could always add them later.

For Part 1 of the Article Series, The Expos Hitters: click here

For Part 2 of the Article Series, The Expos Pitchers: click here

For Part 3 of the Article Series, The Demise of the Montreal Expos: click here

For Part 4 of the Article Series, The Washington Nationals Franchise 2005-2012: click here

For Part 6 of the Article Series, The Nationals 2013 Payroll and Contract Statuses click here 

Here is the highlight reel from Stephen Strasburg’s debut at Nationals Park.  14 Strikeouts is amazing!

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A Great DH Can Mean Winning the AL Pennant

Wednesday December 28, 2011



Doug Booth-  Guest Baseball Writer:  

Watching the 2011 season, something really resonated with me while watching the American League:  ‘Where have all the great designated hitters in MLB gone?’  It seemed only a few years ago that every team had a bopper capable of hitting .300 with 30 HR’S and 100 RBI’s.  Upon further investigation, I found out some interesting facts.  First, let us look at the top-3 DH’s this past 2011 season.  Michael Young of the Rangers hit .338, 11 HR’S and 106 RBI, which was the best performance by any DH, in helping to win the Rangers a 2nd straight ALCS Pennant.  A close second would go to Victor Martinez, who spent 112 games at DH and hit .330 with 12 HR’S and 103 RBI.  The 3rd best DH was David Ortiz, who hit .309 with 29 HR’s and 96 RBI.  The rest of the DH’s were average to below average.  

The Yankees struggled with Posada and a rotation of Andruw Jones/Jesus Montero, although they hit about 30 HR’s combined.  The Blue Jays never had a set DH, but received decent production from Encarnacion and Lind.  The Baltimore Orioles had Vlad Guerrero, who had his worst year ever, as did the Angels’ Bobby Abreu and the Rays’ Johnny Damon.  The Seattle Mariners had washed up Jack Cust and the likes of Willy Mo Pena by the end of the year.  Oakland has steady Hideki Matsui, but not even a decent second half had him anywhere near his career average totals.  Kansas City has been placing Billy Butler back onto the field, so his DH role was limited this season.  Adam Dunn soon became a four letter word in Chicago’s South side.  Aging and injury prone players Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner saw the most amount of work for the Cleveland Indians at DH, so yet again these players were far from being in their most productive years.  

So what is the underlying theme here?  If you have a great DH, you may just make the playoffs and win it all.  Young, Martinez, Ortiz had their teams in contention all year for the playoffs.  The Tampa Bay Rays were the 4th team in the playoff chase and managed to overcome the position thanks to superior pitching.  One could definitely say that Michael Young vs. Bobby Abreu is worth a definite amount of wins at that position, considering what they each produced in the AL West.  

I am going to go through the last 20 years of ALCS Pennant Winners as part of my study.  80% of the time (the team with a great DH) was in the World Series:

1992 TORONTO-Dave Winfield .290 26 HR’S 108 RBI
1993 TORONTO-Paul Molitor .332 22 HR’S 111 RBI
1994 WORLD SERIES CANCELLED
1995 CLEVELAND-Eddie Murray .323 21 HR’S 82 RBI
1996 NEW YORK-Cecil Fielder 39 HR’S 117 RBI (Acquired at deadline by NYY)
1997 CLEVELAND-David Justice .329 33 HR’S 101 RBI
1998 NEW YORK-Darryl Strawberry 24 HR’S 57 RBI (295 AB IN 101 GAMES)
1999 NEW YORK-Chili Davis/Darryl Strawberry (not the greatest year-but in middle of NYY dynasty of 6 ALCS IN 7 YRS)
2000 NEW YORK-David Justice .286 41 HR’S 118 RBI
2001 NEW YORK-David Justice (not the greatest year but it was a solid NYY team.  Edgar Martinez led SEA to a 116-46 record and were prohibitive favorites but lost to the Yankees-Martinez year was .306 23 HR’s AND 106 RBI
2002 ANAHEIM-Brad Fullmer (hit .289 with 60 XBH in 130 games and a slugging % of .531)
2003 NEW YORK-Jason Giambi 41 HR’S 107 RBI
2004 BOSTON-David Ortiz .301 41 HR’S 139 RBI
2005 CHICAGO-Carl Everett 23 HR’S 87 RBI in 135 games
2006 Detroit Tigers-Dmitri Young (They did not have a definite DH after Young’s injury so this year so was the worst out of the 20 years.)
2007 BOSTON-David Ortiz-.305 35 HR’S 117 RBI
2008 TAMPA BAY-Cliff Floyd/Wille Aybar 22 HR’S 72 RBI combined (Again great pitching carried TB.)
2009 NEW YORK-Hideki Matsui .274 28 HR 90 RBI IN 456 AB
2010 TEXAS-Vlad Guerrero .300 29 HR’S 115 RBI
2011 TEXAS-Michael Young .338 11 HR’S 106 RBI

In 2006, half of the league possessed great DH’s:  Ortiz .287 54 HR 137 RBI, Hafner .308 42 HR’S 117 RBI, Giambi 37 HR’S 113 RBI, Thome .288 42 HR’S 109 RBI, and Thomas hit 39 HR’S 114 RBI.  This group is far more productive than the 2011 bunch.  Given this Information, why wouldn’t more teams elect for permanent DH slots just to gain an edge over their competition?  The Seattle Mariners had an incredible run from 1994-2004 with Edgar Martinez as a permanent DH.  The Boston Red Sox have won 2 World Series titles and are perennial playoff contenders with David Ortiz as their DH.  The Yankees have not been the same since Hideki Matsui has left the club as their DH.  This leads me to the Toronto Blue Jays pitching an offer to Prince Fielder and making Adam Lind a permanent DH.

With a signing of Fielder, the Jays could move Adam Lind to just a DH.  Could you dare envision a lineup of: Escobar SS, Rasmus CF, Bautista RF, Fielder 1B, Lawrie 3B, Lind DH, Arencibia C, Johnson 2B, and your pick of Thames or Snyder?  This would free up your club to make a trade as well.  If you are the Jays, and offered Yu Darvish the posting bid of over $50 million and another $60-75 million in salary, why wouldn’t you offer Fielder a 7 year deal in the $140-150 Million range?  With Fielder signed, I think his presence would potentially alter the attendance by 8,000-10,000 fans per game to justify his salary (not to mention merchandise and television ratings).  With a 3-4-5 lineup of Bautista, Fielder and Lawrie, I could see 120 HR’S and 350 RBI combined each year.  The best aspect of these guys is that they are patient.  If you add Adam Lind as the #6 hitter with 30 HR 100 RBI capability, then it will become lookout time for the rest of the league.

The Angels signing of Albert Pujols should not cause concern about his production.  Even into his early 40’s, Pujols should be able to hit well given his dedication to personal fitness.  The question is: why wait to move him to DH right now with the amount of 1st baseman they already possess with Trumbo and maybe a return from Morales? It is my belief that aging players should be shipped off to the National League when they can’t post impressive offensive numbers. A good example of this are recent NL pinch hitters Jason Giambi and Matt Stairs making a living off pinch such roles after failing as DH’s late into their careers.  If the AL teams persist in signing aging players past their prime for the DH role, then I believe they will struggle.  Vlad Guerrero and Johnny Damon would be perfect for an NL team at this stage of their respective careers considering this rationale.

So whatever players are ultimately signed by each team from this point forward or already have signed, whichever AL teams have the best Designated Hitters in the league for the 2012 season will likely have the best shot at winning the AL Pennant.

 

*** Thank you to our Guest Baseball Writer- Doug Booth for joining us today on MLB reports.  To learn more about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames” and Doug Booth, you can follow Doug on Twitter (@ChuckBooth3024) and click here for Doug’s website, fastestthirtyballgames.com*** 

 

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