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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – January 22, 2015

USA Today Sports

USA Today Sports

Why bother making picks so early in the year?

The closers could be different! Eventual post season heroes could be starting the season with another team.

But as of right now, the Chicago White Sox look like a very dangerous team.

It is a worthless prediction episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast

 

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Based On The World Series Odds Today – Bet The Royals To Win

Getty Images

Getty Images

By Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Analyst/Website Owner):

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We said it before the World Series started, if you were going to bet KC for the “Fall Classic” wait until after Game 1, when a loss to Madison Bumgarner was well within the realm.

The Royals jumped from a -120 favorite, to a +170 underdog on the completion of last night’s game.  Clearly the website is working out formula’s without human’s listing the odds before this series began.

It still baffles me how the Giants weren’t favored to win this series to begin with.

Having said this, the time to bet the American League Champions is right now if you were going to bet them at all.  I still believe the Giants will win the series, however the odd has jumped so far in their favor, it doesn’t have enough value to throw some cabbage down on.

Tonight’s matchup (Jake Peavy +106 @ Yordano Ventura -116) favors Kansas City slightly.  But it is more than that.

The young flamethrowing rookie (Ventura) has great hit and miss stuff, and has never faced the Giants lineup, this ultimately is in Ned Yost squad’s favor.

Peavy on the other hand, spent numerous years and season series opposing the Royals as a member of the Chicago White Sox formerly.  He has struggled mightily, owning a 5 – 7 record, with a 4.97 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 14 game starts against Kansas City lifetime.  

Billy Butler has had a field day on the RHP.  Hitting .500 with 3 HRs for his career versus the former Red Sox champ. Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 21, 2014

Getty Images

Getty Images

Every team that made the playoffs has heart

Every team that made the playoffs has desire.

Every team that made the playoffs has a sense of camaraderie.

At this point at the eve of the World Series, making predictions is futile. It is all coming down to chance.

It is a recorded in the parking lot of Trader Joe’s episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 19, 2014

Screen Shot 2014-10-19 at 9.53.12 AM

 

It may be difficult to predict who becomes a post season hero. But one thing is certain… he will be picked up under the radar during the season by the San Francisco Giants.

Just ask Cody Ross, Marco Scutaro and Travis Ishikawa.

It is a waiver wire pick up episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

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Odds To Win The 2014 MLB World Series (Kansas City Vs San Francisco) + Prediction Time

Kansas City is making the most of their 1st playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 1985.  The club has won 8 straight games over 3 series, and have shown they have power in their lumbering, homering in most of their games.  They have a slight advantage with their Relief Core, and must amp up their speed game again versus the Giants in order to win the 2014 Fall Classic.  KC has home field advantage with the AL having won the ALL - Star Game.  I personally think this is a hinderance, based on the way the team plays on the road.  Whatever I feel, the oddsmakers have listed them as the Favorite.

Kansas City is making the most of their 1st playoff appearance since winning the World Series in 1985. The club has won 8 straight games over 3 series, and have shown they have power in their lumber, homering in most of their games. They have a slight advantage with their Relief Core, and must amp up their speed game again versus the Giants in order to win the 2014 Fall Classic. KC has home field advantage with the AL having won the ALL – Star Game. I personally think this is a hinderance, based on the way the team plays on the road. Whatever I feel, the oddsmakers have listed them as the Favorite.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer): 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

I awoke this morning to a text stating that the Giants were the longshots in the MLB World Series this year at +100 when I placed my wager.

Kansas City was a -120 Favorite in the early morning Friday.

I exclaimed ‘yes’ because I was hoping for a nice odd for the NLCS Champs.

Chuck Booth and I stand to win $1477.50 on KC to win the World Series based on a $20 (50/1 Bet) and a $6 (80/1 Bet).

San Francisco was also the subject of my 1st bet on the Fall Classic to start the year.  It was a 25/1 Odd back in January of this year, and we threw down $14 each.

Now since we could win $1477 on the Royals, and just $389 on the Giants, came the hedge bet for $500 on SF at Even money.

So we can win $1389.00 each on the Giants, and now $1477 still on KC.

The difference being, that we only had to wager $25 aggregate on the ALCS Champs.

The bet assures us of over $1000 each profit for the year.

Already, since the morning line, the odds have shifted to SF -105, to KC -115.   I am not surprised, as the Sharps have spoken. 

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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 17, 2014

walking

Ho hum… another mind boggling, jaw dropping, heart stopping, head scratching historic playoff game in 2014.

Travis Ishikawa joins an elite crew…

Michael Morse and Brandon Crawford have heroics almost as important…

And Mike Matheny might have managed himself right out of St. Louis.

It is a night of baseball I will never forget and I celebrate on this episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

Travis Ishikawa (you think?), Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright and Jon Jay all owned October yesterday.

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Who Owns October In MLB Playoffs 2014? (#WOO) Tallies Updated For NLCS Game THU Oct.16, 2014

San Francisco Chronicle

San Francisco Chronicle

Each winning team for every post season game gets a pitcher and a hitter who earn a full WOO (Who Owns October.)

And at my discretion, I award a 1/2 WOO’S to a worthy player on the losing team.

For a full explanation, click HERE

From October 16th NLCS Game:

Receiving 1 WOO’s.

Travis Ishikawa hit the dramatic, pennant clinching 3 run homer in the bottom of the 9th to down the Cardinals and send the Giants to the World Series, 6-3.

Madison Bumgarner gave the Giants 8 strong innings, allowing just 5 hits and 3 runs. He didn’t get the win but set up the Giants 6-3 clincher over the Cardinals and earned NLCS MVP honors.

Receiving 1/2 WOO’s

Jon Jay collected 2 hits, including a double, drove in a run and played solid defense in the Cardinals 6-3 loss in San Francisco.

Adam Wainwright was excellent over 7 innings, allowing 4 hits and 2 runs, striking out 7 and left with the lead. The bullpen would blow the game and the Giants would eliminate St. Louis, 6-3.

 

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 16, 2014

Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports.

Lance Iversen-USA TODAY Sports.

Talking Royals, SF Symphony and answering an e mail from Michael Reisman.

The Giants are also only 1 win away from becoming the team of the decade, and it is only 5 years old.

San Francisco keeps scoring runs without actually getting hits.  Insane…  All of that and more on this episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

Alcides EscobarYusmeiro PetitBuster PoseyJason VargasRyan Flaherty and Kolten Wong all owned October yesterday

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It Has Been Bizarro World In the MLB All Year For 2014: The Playoffs Are No Different

bizarro world

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer): 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

The Royals and O’s in the ALCS??? with KC halfway to running the table on the whole playoffs – winning 6 straight games – and looking like the reincarnation of the 1927 Yankees?

The Braintrust of the New York Yankees, (and some fans) are happy with a 84 win season – following an 85 win campaign the previous year – to miss the postseason for the 2nd season in a row, but lock the GM for 3 years?&*!@!

The Pirates made a 2nd consecutive playoff spot??  

Jose Altuve and Justin Morneau led their respective leagues in Batting Average??

Okay so it has definitely been a bizarre year in the Majors.  While I am happy to see the game return to more athleticism and talent (not aided by steroids), the game has never been any harder to predict.

As a professional handicapper I realized this much a long time ago about baseball.  You never bet the favorite, and always take the value. Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 12, 2014

 

FOX_Sports_1_Logo LG

Fox Sports 1 did some creative work in their broadcast of the NLCS last night. It shows that maybe some different thinking can be used in showing baseball as MLB embraces the digital age.

It is a thinking outside of the Idiot Box episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

Madison Bumgarner, Pablo Sandoval, Lorenzo Cain, Greg Holland, Jon Jay and Adam Jones all owned October last night.

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Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 11, 2014

photo(4)

The Royals outslugged the Orioles?

The Orioles outran the Royals?

The Royals have home field advantage after winning their FOURTH extra inning post season game?

How about instead of trying to predict this post season, we just let it unfold whatever way it does. Nobody has been able to predict it yet!

I recorded today’s podcast while driving past every ballpark the Giants have called home in San Francisco.

It is going with the flow episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

Alex Gordon, Wade Davis and Ryan Flaherty all owned October last night.

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NLCS Preview: Cardinals vs Giants In A Battle For Decade Supremacy!

Its all about the Pennants in the LCS Round,  The Cards are competing in their 4th straight NLCS, and 9th out of 14 years,  while the GIants are in the series for the 3rd time in 5 years, and have never lost a playoff series under head coach Bruce Bochy.

It’s all about the Pennants in the LCS Round, The Cards are competing in their 4th straight NLCS, and 9th out of 14 years, while the GIants are in the series for the 3rd time in 5 years, and have never lost a playoff series under head coach Bruce Bochy.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer): 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

I am not going to preview this from an analyst angle because our “Lead Podcast Personality”  Paul Francis Sullivan ‘AKA Sully’ does a brilliant 20 minute podcast that he does daily, and he has described this matchup beautifully.

I will post the podcast at the end of the article.

Instead,  I am looking at this series as a professional handicapper sense.

Opening Odds

STL -135

SF, +115

I have to give the nod to the Giants for value on this one. If you go down the rosters, the St. Louis franchise is a smidge better on the talent level, however how can you bet against San Francisco when they have won 8 straight playoff series from 2010 – 2014.

The Giants have also won 4 of 5 games in this year’s playoff. Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – October 9, 2014

AP Photo - James A. Finley

AP Photo – James A. Finley

The Cardinals and the Giants are meeting in the NLCS again, and a lot of people are not happy with that match up.

Perhaps if the 2012 NLCS featured an iconic moment, walk off homer or thrilling Game 7, this would be considered a welcomed rematch between two terrific recent champions.

It is an NLCS preview episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

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Current Odds (AL/NL) To Win The MLB League Championships In 2014

The American League has a lot more parity than the National League this year - with about 12 teams in contention for the playoffs, as opposed to about 8 realistic chances for the NL.  The Tigers should be the ultimate favorite for this odd with the chance of the Angles catching the A's, but overall, they assessed decent odds across the board in the junior circuit.  The wheelhouse for value is within the middle teams.

The American League has a lot more parity than the National League this year – with about 12 teams in contention for the playoffs, as opposed to about 8 realistic chances for the NL. The Tigers should be the ultimate favorite for this odd with the chance of the Angles catching the A’s, but overall, they accessed decent odds across the board in the junior circuit. The wheelhouse for value is within the middle teams like the Royals, Indians, Rays and Orioles.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer): 

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter

As you will see in the odds at the end of this point, the NL top 5 teams are not worth betting for the League Odds, but rather the World Series. 

I alluded to this earlier in the year.

For example, the Dodgers are +700 to win the World Series, but are favored at just +275.  This is almost 2.5 times the amount.  In essence, you would need the Dodgers to pay +140 in the Fall Classic, to make the same as winning the LCS, than betting them for the WS.

LA would probably be a great matchup versus any of the AL teams, and likely favored against all except for the Tigers.  The pitching staff is too strong.

The AL has  3 teams totally eliminated from even thinking about playoffs in my view, with the White Sox on the cusp of the threshold.

Give me the Orioles at +1000 any time, as they may have an easier time winning the AL, than in a World Series matchup. 

I also love the value of the Indians and Royals, as both teams are within earshot of the 2nd Wild Card leading Yankees and Blue Jays. and just behind the Mariners.

Like we have discussed so often, the AL Central should have the easiest strength of schedule down the last 60 games or so. Read the rest of this entry

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