NLCS Preview: Cardinals vs Giants In A Battle For Decade Supremacy!
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I am not going to preview this from an analyst angle because our “Lead Podcast Personality” Paul Francis Sullivan ‘AKA Sully’ does a brilliant 20 minute podcast that he does daily, and he has described this matchup beautifully.
I will post the podcast at the end of the article.
Instead, I am looking at this series as a professional handicapper sense.
I have to give the nod to the Giants for value on this one. If you go down the rosters, the St. Louis franchise is a smidge better on the talent level, however how can you bet against San Francisco when they have won 8 straight playoff series from 2010 – 2014.
The Giants have also won 4 of 5 games in this year’s playoff.
At the Reports, we have long stated that the Cardinals are the premiere organization in the Majors. They never make too many mistakes on personnel.
I also think that Brian Sabean is one of the best GM as well.
I like the Giants better on offense, while the Cards may have better defense. St. Louis also has 4 home games compared to San Fran having 3.
There is some serious doubt on Adam Wainwright pitching well. He was lackluster in Game #1 of the LDS, and has had elbow problems for the last few months.
Madison Bumgarner has been money on the road, and will start in Game #1 for the Giants.
Another bet I like on the board, and you can wager this for both clubs, is to bet the series to finish in exactly 7 games either way as the winner.
The Giants pay +500 to win the series 4 – 3
The Cardinals pay +400.to win the series 4 – 3
My idea is to bet both clubs either way, with liking the odds on SF more.
In 2012, the Cards took a 3 – 1 lead, before the Giants won the next 3 contests in the NLCS, moving on to win the 2012 World Series – where the swept the Detroit Tigers.
You also could wait for game #1’s conclusion, and wager whatever team loses. Just because someone wins that game doesn’t mean they will win the Series, and especially with these two clubs.
St Louis came back on several teams last year in the playoffs, and the Giants have done this several times over the last 5 years too.
It is like a heavyweight boxing match. A losing team in Saturday’s game will not panic (pardon the pun for the San Fran 2B).
If you want to eliminate the worry about both teams, simply bet the series to go 7 regardless of winner. You can do this at http://www.bet365.com under the (When Will Series Finish)
for this series to go 7, it pays +180. So, if you like the Cardinals to win the series a little more than the Giants, use this bet.
If you add up both totals with a $100 bet for +180 it pays a $280 return.
If you bet $50 for each team, it pays $300 for the Giants and $250 for the Cards, so at a medium mean of $275 for the wager, the +180 is a slightly better route to go.
For those that were wondering, if you bet the series to end in 6 games, the odds are exactly identical. Statistics say that series are more likely to end in 6 games rather than 7, however with these teams being harder to kill ‘than zombies’, my belief is a 7 game series.
Now I am going to bet that the Cardinals will find some way to win this NLCS, because the 2014 team has more fireballers than that 2012 club, while the Giants are not firing on all cylinders like they were in 2012 and 2010.
Having said, this series is incredibly close anyway you slice. I can win more money on San Fran, than the Cards, because they were my 1st wager of the year. I bet $15 ay 25/1 back in January.
Based on that prognostication I was able to hedge bet the Cards, and I also combined them with Baltimore to win the respective LCS rounds, for a payoff of +218 at the time. It now stands at +203 today.
If these picks both turn out right, it would raise my brutal playoff rounds record to 3 – 5, with a chance to go 1 under with a World Series win too. If not, at least I have lots of cabbage on the Royals to win from earlier in the year.
When gambling it is important to remove personal belief’s and just go with the value. That is what I have done all year. I won my main 3 picks for over/unders, and now if SF/KC or BAL wins, I will make a substantial profit.
If the STL Cards and Baltimore both win, I will make a smaller but decent profit still.
If Kansas City wins, and the Cards win, it will kill my combo pick, however with $1500 to win with the Royals, I can hedge bet on the Cardinals in the finals to cover my losses, and still turn a profit.
It has been a decent year on betting on the MLB regardless of how it ends up for me as a playoff prognosticator,
The Cardinals and the Giants are meeting in the NLCS again, and a lot of people are not happy with that match up.
Perhaps if the 2012 NLCS featured an iconic moment, walk off homer or thrilling Game 7, this would be considered a welcomed rematch between two terrific recent champions.
It is an NLCS preview episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.
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Odds are courtesy of www.bet365.com
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Posted on October 10, 2014, in gambling 101, Playoffs and tagged 1987 NLCS, 2000 NLCS, 2002 World Series, 2010 World Series, 2011 World Series, 2012 nlcs, 2012 world series, 2014 MLB Playoffs, 2014 NLCS, 2014 San Francisco Giants, 2014 St. Louis Cardinals, 2014 world series, alcs, angels, Atlanta Braves, baltimore orioles, boston red sox, bruce bochy, buster posey, Camden Yards, chris davis, detroit tigers, jon lester, kansas city royals, los angeles dodgers, minnesota twins, nl wild card winner, nlcs, oakland a's, oakland athletics, odds to win the 2014 alcs, odds to wint he 2014 NLCS, Paul Francis Sullivan, pittsburgh pirates, san francisco giants, sf giants, st louis cardinals, Sully Baseball, Sully baseball daily podcast, toronto blue jays, washington nationals, yadier molina. Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.