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Odds To Win The Overall Homer Crown In 2016 MLB Baseball: Battle Of The Big Fly’s

Stanton has light tower power - and should lead the NL in Homers if he can remain healthy for a whole year. While it doesn't lock up a postseason berth having an MVP type season - coupled with a CY Young caliber pitcher on the field, it should translate in a chance to contend for the year.

Stanton has light tower power – and should lead the NL and MLB in Homers if he can remain healthy for a whole year.   In just 74 Games Played last campaign, the big slugger belted 27 HRs.  The problem is always staying on the field.  There is no reason to think he can’t crack 50+ HRs if he played a full season.  To aid his efforts as the biggest favorite to win this years MLB Homer crown – is that Marlins Park is bringing in the fences and also lowering them.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) 

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I am flat-out wondering why these guys failed to include Chris Carter on this list?  For a prolific Home Run Hitter over the last 3 years (90 bombs), this guy is getting no respect.

I mean they have Corey Seager, Matt Adams and Freddie Freeman at the +20000 clip, but no word for a guy who finished 2nd in 2014 MLB Homers?

Carter is headed to the best home run park in the Major Leagues in Milwaukee, and will not be on a competitive club, where his AB may be in question.  Sure the guy might fan 250 times in 600 AB this season, but he may crack 40 taters for all we know.

I have requested this gambling website send me the odd for Carter (you can request a player that wasn’t listed), and I will get back to you shortly.

Let me start by saying that if Giancarlo Stanton remains healthy for a full year that he should definitely lead the Majors in longballs.  Despite us predicting him to do this, his odd only is listed as our #5 value best bet on the board.

Chris Davis has led the Majors in homers in 2 of the last 3 years, with 53 HRs and 47 HRs sandwiched with his 2014 campaign - where he hit 26 HRs in 127 Games Played before a 25 game suspension was levied for not receiving permission for a pill close to Adderall. Davis has the league's consent now just like 2013 and 2015. I just don't have him as a great odd on this list.

Chris Davis has led the Majors in homers in 2 of the last 3 years, with 53 HRs and 47 HRs sandwiched with his 2014 campaign – where he hit 26 HRs in 127 Games Played before a 25 game suspension was levied for not receiving permission for a pill close to Adderall. Davis has the league’s consent now just like 2013 and 2015. I just don’t have him as a great odd on this list for value.

Chris Davis is the only other guy who could club 50+ HRs in my view.

Of course Mike Trout and Bryce Harper may also club that many one day – it is just that they are better overall hitters than Stanton is for Average and OBP.

Having Stanton and Harper as the favorites makes it not worth a wager in my view.  The 1st odd that grabbed my attention was Nolan Arenado at +2200.  This guy tied Harper for the NL lead in jacks last campaign at 42, is playing in Denver’s air, and is not bound to a contender, meaning he can let it rip.

Going down a little it further I found the odd I disliked for a guy.  Albert Pujols may be out till May but is listed as +3000.  Stay away there.

This gambling establishment is also giving a great amount of respect to Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, Kris Bryant and George Springer.  While these guys may emerge into the Homer Leader race, the value is not there.

I also detest the +4000 odd for Justin Upton.  I think he will crack between 20 – 25 HRs adjusted to the American League and playing at Comerica Park for 81 games.

Then we get to a few guys listed at +10000, meaning for every dollar wagered you win $100.  I friggin love Kyle Schwarber, Manny Machado and Yoenis Cespedes at this mark.

Lets say Stanton gets hurt, the league pitches around Harper and Arenado on their respective clubs.  It is not unfathomable for Cespedes to be capable of hitting in the high 30’s for HRs.  He crushed 35 in 2016, with 17 of his homers being hit for the Mets in 2 months.

Cespedes is going to speedbag on the Phils and Braves pitching for 38 games as well, and beyond Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins may serve up a pile of gopher balls too.  For the odd, the bet is there.

Machado belted 35 HRs in 2015 to tie for 13th overall in the bigs with David Ortiz and the aforementioned Cespedes. A bit overshadowed by Harper last season, Machado is just 23 coming into the 2016 year.

I still expect the Orioles ‘Chris Davis to play a big role in the overall MLB lead, as he has led the Majors in 2 of the last 3 years, and he is able to take his approved meds.

Kyle Schwarber at +10000 may also be worth plunking down a $1 or $2, as he clubbed 16 HRs in just 232 AB in his rookie season.  If you extrapolate that over 600 AB – then maybe he is capable of 40+ bombs in a year.

Another odd I don’t like is Mark Trumbo at +3800 despite his move to Camden Yards.  This guy has been exposed over the last few years and many scouts have said that his swing is just flawed.

I am also surprised to see that Corey Dickerson even made this list. He had the benefit of playing in Coors Field to pad his totals.  I am not saying he won’t be a decent player here. Just shouldn’t even be sniffed on the list.

For the record, here are our 2016 top 5 MLB Homer projections for the year.  This is about value though.  We did that list without knowing where Cespedes and Davis would end up.

HR Odds (To Lead Majors In Regular Season)

Red Bold (Our Pick to win the actual HR Race)

Blue Bold (Best Bets with Rank in Parenthesis)

Auburn Bold (Worst Bets with Rank in Parenthesis)

odds courtesy of sportsbook.ag

Giancarlo Stanton (+ 700, #5)

 
 
 
 
Mike Trout +1200
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nolan Arenado (+2200, #4)
 
 
 
 
Jose Abreu +2500
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Albert Pujols (+3000, #1)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Mark Trumbo (+3800, #2)
 
 
Justin Upton (+4000, #3)
 
 
 
 
 
 
Adam Jones +8000
 
 
 
 
Joey Votto +8000
 
 
 
 
David Ortiz +10000
 
 
 
 
 
 
Jay Bruce +10000
 
 
Joc Pederson +10000
 
 
Kyle Schwarber (+10000, #3)
 
 
Manny Machado (+10000, #2)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Ryan Braun +10000
 
 
Yasiel Puig +10000
 
 
Yoenis Cespedes (+10000, #1)
 
 
Lucas Duda +15000
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Brian Dozier +20000
 
 
Corey Dickerson (+20000, #4)
 
 
Corey Seager (+20000, #5)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Kole Calhoun +20000
 
 
Kyle Seager +20000
 
 
Matt Adams +20000
 
 
Matt Kemp +20000
 
 
Yoenis Cespedes led all LF for HRs with 35 on the campaign in 2015. He picked a contract year for his best season to date out of the 4 years he has been in the Major Leagues. Cespedes hit 17 HRs with the Mets in 2 months, after smacking out just 18 in the first four months with Detroit. Cespedes finished in the top 40 for both leagues in respective big fly's, and was tie for 13th overall with Manny Machado and David Ortiz.

Yoenis Cespedes led all LF for HRs with 35 on the campaign in 2015. He picked a contract year for his best season to date out of the 4 years he has been in the Major Leagues. Cespedes hit 17 HRs with the Mets in 2 months, after smacking out just 18 in the first four months with Detroit. Cespedes finished in the top 40 for both leagues in respective big fly’s, and was tied for 13th overall with Manny Machado and David Ortiz.  At +10000 I have him as the best valued odd on the board for this list.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their other partners.***

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A big thanks goes out to our ‘Chief Writer/Part Owner’ Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured post.

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Posted on February 17, 2016, in gambling 101, HRs, Players: Fantasy Baseball Articles and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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