Odds To Win The Overall Homer Crown In 2016 MLB Baseball: Battle Of The Big Fly’s
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I am flat-out wondering why these guys failed to include Chris Carter on this list? For a prolific Home Run Hitter over the last 3 years (90 bombs), this guy is getting no respect.
Carter is headed to the best home run park in the Major Leagues in Milwaukee, and will not be on a competitive club, where his AB may be in question. Sure the guy might fan 250 times in 600 AB this season, but he may crack 40 taters for all we know.
I have requested this gambling website send me the odd for Carter (you can request a player that wasn’t listed), and I will get back to you shortly.
Let me start by saying that if Giancarlo Stanton remains healthy for a full year that he should definitely lead the Majors in longballs. Despite us predicting him to do this, his odd only is listed as our #5 value best bet on the board.
Chris Davis is the only other guy who could club 50+ HRs in my view.
Having Stanton and Harper as the favorites makes it not worth a wager in my view. The 1st odd that grabbed my attention was Nolan Arenado at +2200. This guy tied Harper for the NL lead in jacks last campaign at 42, is playing in Denver’s air, and is not bound to a contender, meaning he can let it rip.
Going down a little it further I found the odd I disliked for a guy. Albert Pujols may be out till May but is listed as +3000. Stay away there.
This gambling establishment is also giving a great amount of respect to Carlos Correa, Miguel Sano, Kris Bryant and George Springer. While these guys may emerge into the Homer Leader race, the value is not there.
I also detest the +4000 odd for Justin Upton. I think he will crack between 20 – 25 HRs adjusted to the American League and playing at Comerica Park for 81 games.
Lets say Stanton gets hurt, the league pitches around Harper and Arenado on their respective clubs. It is not unfathomable for Cespedes to be capable of hitting in the high 30’s for HRs. He crushed 35 in 2016, with 17 of his homers being hit for the Mets in 2 months.
Cespedes is going to speedbag on the Phils and Braves pitching for 38 games as well, and beyond Jose Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins may serve up a pile of gopher balls too. For the odd, the bet is there.
Machado belted 35 HRs in 2015 to tie for 13th overall in the bigs with David Ortiz and the aforementioned Cespedes. A bit overshadowed by Harper last season, Machado is just 23 coming into the 2016 year.
I still expect the Orioles ‘Chris Davis to play a big role in the overall MLB lead, as he has led the Majors in 2 of the last 3 years, and he is able to take his approved meds.
Kyle Schwarber at +10000 may also be worth plunking down a $1 or $2, as he clubbed 16 HRs in just 232 AB in his rookie season. If you extrapolate that over 600 AB – then maybe he is capable of 40+ bombs in a year.
Another odd I don’t like is Mark Trumbo at +3800 despite his move to Camden Yards. This guy has been exposed over the last few years and many scouts have said that his swing is just flawed.
I am also surprised to see that Corey Dickerson even made this list. He had the benefit of playing in Coors Field to pad his totals. I am not saying he won’t be a decent player here. Just shouldn’t even be sniffed on the list.
For the record, here are our 2016 top 5 MLB Homer projections for the year. This is about value though. We did that list without knowing where Cespedes and Davis would end up.
HR Odds (To Lead Majors In Regular Season)
Red Bold (Our Pick to win the actual HR Race)
Blue Bold (Best Bets with Rank in Parenthesis)
Auburn Bold (Worst Bets with Rank in Parenthesis)
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Posted on February 17, 2016, in gambling 101, HRs, Players: Fantasy Baseball Articles and tagged adam jones, adrian gonzalez, albert pujols, Andrew McCutchen, anthony rizzo, Brian Dozier, bryce harper, carlos correa, carlos gonzalez, chris davis, Corey Dickerson, corey seager, curtis granderson, david ortiz, edwin encarnacion, evan gattis, evan longoria, freddie freeman, george springer, giancarlo stanton, hanley ramirez, jay bruce, JD Martinez, Joc Pederson, joey votto, jose abreu, jose bautista, josh donaldson, justin upton, kendrys morales, Khris Davis, kole calhoun, kris bryant, kyle schwarber, kyle seager, lucas duda, Maikel Franco, manny machado, mark teixeira, mark trumbo, Matt Adams, matt kemp, michael conforto, miguel cabrera, miguel sano, Mike Trout, nelson cruz, nolan arenado, paul goldschmidt, pedro alvarez, prince fielder, Randal Grichuk, ryan braun, todd frazier, troy tulowitzki, yasiel puig, yoenis cespedes. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.