The ‘PECOTA’ System For MLB Team Win Projections Should Be Thrown Into The ‘Woodchipper’ Fargo Style!
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21
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This winter has brought my attention to the gambling world more often than I ever would have guessed. I already spent an impromptu weekend in Reno/Carson City after throwing down some serious cabbage at Atlantis Casino based on their over/unders last week.
I have been fortunate to nail down two straight years in which I have turned a $1000 profit on MLB futures. For those people who have been following our Gambling 101 series of bets, this is one of the best streaks I have been on all – time, and maybe it will end with me ‘letting it ride’ this year, but I am also confident it won’t.
I only wish that PECOTA’s win totals (BY BP) would come with the ability to win moolah just like Atlantis offered.
Oh, where to begin. LOL.
The Royals at 76 wins is the biggest joke I have seen in 20 years. Hey fella’s, if all of your analysts and experts don’t think that KC is actually going to have that victory total, then you guys should be pulling all nighter’s at BP headquarters until you fix that system.
Almost as laughable is the Rays winning 91 games. Seriously?? I mean the club has decent pitching, but features a pop gun offence, and 3/4ths of the Mariners ex-infield that couldn’t hack it in 2014.
I also want to see if anyone has been freebasing Clearasil – or huffing paint – in thinking that Cardinals and Pirates will both retract 15+ wins from 2015 campaigns, while the Michael Brantley (less for the 1st month) will rake in 92 victories.
The Indians offense is so dependent on Brantley for his stick that his loss for the 1st 4 – 5 weeks will cripple their season.
Take away those clubs we have talked about here, egregious in thought process, and the rest of their prognostications are actually near the mark.
I actually love their AL West slotting. I am right on board in thinking the Angels will be near where they are projecting. However, I think the Halo’s will be bounce back to near .500 by the end of the year.
There is no problem with the win totals for the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays, Astros, Rangers, Mariners, White Sox, Twins and A’s.
I think this system is selling the Tigers franchise a little short. I fully expect them to be in the mid 80’s for wins. Baltimore at 72 wins is a little low too, although if they fail to secure Yovani Gallardo – and possibly Dexter Fowler, it could be reached with a full scale selloff at the Trade Deadline should the 1st half go awry.
Just like the Fangraphs season projections, I believe these guys are selling the top 7 NL clubs short on win totals here. The Reds, Brewers, Padres, Rockies, Braves and Phillies are going to serve up wins, players for trades, and a ton of bad baseball in 2016. All the top clubs should have their victory totals padded a little.
The Diamondbacks should also be better than the 78 wins BP labelled them for.
Cincinnati and Milwaukee will also have a tough time not reaching 90 losses either – in being pummeled by Chicago, St. Louis and Pittsburgh for 57 games of their seasons each.
Add in they are going to sell everything off pretty much not nailed down. and it is ludicrous to think both of them will see a 10 game win improvement year over year from 2015 to 2016!
Another thing that I will continue to gripe is an inadequate amount of win reporting. BP has the American League going 1232 – 1198 overall, but then has the National League featuring a 1204 – 1226 record. This is wrong guys.
If the AL has 1232 wins, that means they 34 games over .500 in Interleague play. As such. the Senior Circuit would have an identical record in reverse (1198 – 1232).
You have doled out 6 more wins than are given out on any season (2436 to 2430).
Time to go back to the drawing board fella’s, but thanks for coming out.
I am the first one to tell you that win totals are a hard thing to come by. I am probably going to lose every cent I have profited over the last few years at some point. This is just way too overboard.
I am taking issue with these trusted ‘websites’ throwing out these totals so ‘cavalier’ like this.
There is a reason why the mlbreports.com is in the millions of views right now. We have had a year by year awesome record of evaluating teams, players and gambling odds. If we were full of crap – we would be out of business right now, and all of us wouldn’t be slaving away at a keyboard on a daily basis.
Are we right all of the time?Hell no…Do we go with the flow on everything? Hell no! We have our own opinions and are not afraid to sling them out for public consumption.
I feel that these absurd win totals for some select teams are worthy of our motto. “The Truth Stings like Cactus” (in this case it may be from playing leapfrog over a short cliff onto that cactus).
I guess in 7.5 months time we will know if we were wrong or someone else. I don’t think we are though, and have a sneaking suspicion – it will be another profitable venture.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their other partners.***
A big thanks goes out to our ‘Chief Writer/Part Owner’ Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured post.
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Posted on February 17, 2016, in gambling 101, MLB Teams: Articles and Analysis and tagged 2016 win projections for MLB clubs, al central, AL East, AL West, All 30 MLB Teams, American league, arizona diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Atlantis Casino, baltimore orioles, baseball prospectus, boston red sox, chicago cubs, chicago white sox, cincinnati reds, cleveland indians, colorado rockies, detroit tigers, Dexter Fowler, gambling, houston astros, kansas city royals, la angels, la dodgers, miami marlins, milwaukee brewers, minnesota twins, national league, new york mets, new york yankees, NL Central, NL east, nl west, oakland athletics, philadelphia phillies, pittsburgh pirates, san diego padres, san francisco giants, seattle mariners, st louis cardinals, tampa bay rays, texas rangers, toronto blue jays, washington nationals, yovani gallardo. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.