Blog Archives
The Philadelphia Phillies Part 1 of 4: ‘The Franchise’
Friday August.17/2012
Note from Chuck Booth: I am attempting to bring the history for each of the 30 MLB Franchises into a 5 part series that will focus on 1. The teams history. 2. The hitters 3. The pitchers. 4. The Team’s Payroll going into in 2013 and 5. (The stadium articles will all be done next summer when I go to all of the parks in under a month again.) To follow all of the updates, be sure to check my author page with a list of all archived articles here.
It took the Phillies 77 years to win their first World Series in 1980, however since that time, they have been to 4 more World Series: In 1983, 1993, 2008 and 2009, while taking home the Trophy in 2008.
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer): Follow @chuckbooth3024 The Phillies started as a franchise in 1883 in the city of Philadelphia-and have the longest continued stretch as their original name. It has been a club that suffered tremendous droughts for the player and fans alike. Only in recent vintage (since 1975) has this team come into permanent prominence, with the now Hall of Fame Mike Schmidt entering the league and turning the fortunes of the city. From signing Pete Rose to put them over the top for their 1st World Series Trophy, to just re-signing Cole Hamels to a 144 Million Dollar Contract, the team has been adamantly aggressive in keeping its name amongst the elite in baseballs annals.
One could even argue that the Phillies had been the best team in baseball from 2008 up until the start of this season. I recently named this club the best team from the years 1980-1983 and then again for the years of 2008-2009. But before the likes of: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, or Curt Schilling, Lenny Dykstra and Darren Daulton, or Mike Schmidt, Steve Carlton and Pete Rose, they were plenty of other men who left a mark on this historic NL Franchise. We will look at all of the significant players that ever played for the club as a pitcher or hitter. The pitchers and hitters will be focused on solely in the next 2 weeks. Let us look and how the team has fared in its history.
Here are the final pitches of the 2008 World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays. Property of Major League Baseball & Fox.
For Part 2 of The 4 Part Philles Article Series: The Hitters, click here.
For Part 3 of The 4 Part Phillies Article Series: The Pitchers- click here
For Part 4 of the Phillies Article Series: Team Payroll and Contractual Statuses click here
Domonic Brown Needs to Shine in These Next Couple of Months
Saturday August 11th, 2012
Sam Evans: Only a couple of years ago, Domonic Brown was one of the top five prospects in all of baseball. His combination of tools and outstanding production made him appear to be primed to become a superstar. However, things haven’t gone as planned. Brown never got a full-season in the majors, and his numbers in the minors started to drop. Now in 2012, with Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino no longer in Philadelphia, Brown needs to prove he can produce at the major league level.
Before the 2009 season, Domonic Brown was viewed as the #48 prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America. Before the 2010 season, Brown had jumped to 15 in BA’s rankings. In 2010, after hitting .318/.391/.602 in sixty-five games at Double-A, Philadelphia promoted him to Triple-A, where he .346/.390/.562 in just twenty-eight games before getting called up to the majors. In the majors, Brown only got seventy plate appearances, thanks to the talented trio of Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, and Victorino starting almost every day. Read the rest of this entry
MLB Reports Monthly Power Rankings: August 2012
Monday August.6/2012
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)- It has been a crazy month in which teams have stockpiled some heavy talent at the trade deadline to get ready for the playoffs. Amongst the biggest gainers for the rankings this month were: the Athletics, Reds, Braves, Tigers, Dodgers (because of the deals) and Mariners while the Mets, Red Sox, Indians and Royals saw brutal months all but seal their playoff fates. I do think that Boston has a punchers chance but that all is dependent on David Ortiz returning to the lineup swiftly. The power of the best teams is definitely leaning to the National League right now where several teams are playing great baseball. With one-third of the season left we are all in for a treat as baseball fans.
I will have one more regular season Power Rankings month of September (to be posted on Labor Day Weekend,) before I also provide a playoff style ranking of the 1-10 seeds right before the Wild Card Teams play the play in game. It certainly has been awesome to follow how the trade deadline has effected the Monthly Rankings this time around. I think it is safe to say that this years deadline provided more interest and following-from even the casual fan more than any other year before. I also believe that the Non-Waiver Trade Deadline is now the best Trade Deadline in all of sports. Social Media has a lot to do with this but so does parity. The 2nd Wild Card spot has also created more teams willing to trade prospects in lieu of going for it. Read the rest of this entry
Top Ten Stat of The Week: Team Wins Since The Start of the 2003 Season
Monday July 23, 2012
With only one World Series Win and a 2003 Loss to the Florida Marlins, it hasn’t stopped the Yankees from raking in wins every year. They have averaged 95 wins a season since 2003.
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024)- This weeks installment is actually a top 11. I bent the rules a little to accommodate the A’s. It is hard to maintain a great franchise in today’s Major Leagues. Sure the heavy hitters like New York and Boston will always be sniffing around the top of the league with their huge payrolls, but most teams don’t have the luxury to spend like these two teams do because of their limited revenue streams. In the last few years, the Phillies, Angels and Tigers have entered the echelon of top spenders. Spending money doesn’t always equal great results. The Texas Rangers have only had success lately and were often victim to heavy payrolls and not great results. How many years did Peter Angelos try to buy a contender with Baltimore? He has dedicated himself back to the right way of building a team the last couple of years and it has worked through player development.
Minnesota and Oakland have been run incredibly well for a long time. If this list was for a five-year stretch, you would have seen the Tampa Bay Rays as part of the top 10. These are the small market teams that have been consistently playing well against the big boys. The Twins have only faded back in the standings in the last couple of seasons. The Atlanta Braves finally had their consecutive playoff years stopped in 2005 and they were only mediocre for a few seasons. Right now, they might be the best team in the National League. The Angels, Twins, Dodgers, Athletics, Dodgers and Braves did not make any World Series appearances since 2003. Out of these teams, the Angels have the most wins.
According to the movie ‘The Natural,’ losing is a disease, and like other diseases, (insert disease here) it is curable. Most of these teams have not even struggled in the last 10 years. The Yankees have only won one World Series in this time frame, despite dominating the win total every year. In fact, the last time the Yankees has a losing season was 1991. The Cardinals and the Red Sox both have won 2 World Series, and the Cardinals are the only team to have appeared in the Fall Classic 3 times during this stretch. Read the rest of this entry
The Best Teams from 1980-2012: Will Texas claim the title this year from 2010-2012?
Wednesday July.11, 2012
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)- There is only so much one can read in an article, otherwise I would make these lists up from the turn of the 20th century. If you gave me enough time as a reader, I promise to backdate this topic with another article featuring the best teams dating back further in years. Eventually, all of the years may be dissected and we can have a healthy debate on some of my selections. I really started watching baseball in the early 1980’s. As I became older and discovered ways to research the history of the game, my knowledge and curious mind grew for more information. I have studied and read baseball stat books and breezed through the odd Bill James novel. If I ever take a break from writing or baseball park chasing, I may find some time down the road to watch the 9 part PBS documentary that Ken Burns did on baseball’s history.
Baseball lends itself more to the history than any other sport because of how it has been chronicled throughout their past. Writers, announcers, former players, parents etc.. have always carried on with the stories of America’s favorite pastime. I will never be sold that NFL is the greatest pastime in sports right now. NFL is the greatest gambling sport presently. It is my firm belief that the only reason why the NFL draws in more cash from its sport is because of the gambling factor. If you took that aspect out of it, I believe baseball is the #1 sport. Can you imagine how much attention we would pay to baseball if there were only a 16 game schedule? Enough with that rant, let’s get down to the list. Who were the best teams at any specific time period for the last 32 years? We will start with the Philadelphia Phillies from 1980-1983. Read the rest of this entry
Top Ten Stat of The Week: Odds To Win The AL/NL/WS
Monday July.9, 2012
The Yankees pay at the rate of +190 to win the American League and +375 to win the World Series. They are actually the 2nd favorite in the MLB for both to Texas. These odds are not flattering to throw any money down on either team.
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024)- I thought we would try a different top ten today with the ALL-Star Break here today. This morning I did some research on the odds of what http://www.bet365.com thinks will happen for the rest of the MLB Year based on their gambling futures. Gambling is an increasing industry like no other entity in the world. The NFL is better suited for ‘punters’ to throw down some bucks at Vegas. They have only one game a week and the gambling experts think that baseball is easier for the bad teams to beat the good teams. I will tell you as one of these ‘so called experts’, they are completely right. The worst teams in baseball usually can still beat the best teams 1 out of 3 games in a series. This makes normal gambling for a regular season game really hard to make any money, or minimize losses. I do think that betting who makes the playoffs and who wins it all has some good value picks.
Y0u have to search for the value in anything. I never like to play the #1 favorites of each league because they simply don’t pay enough of an odd. Right now, Bet365.com has the Texas Rangers at +175 to win the AL, or The Yankees at +190. I love these two teams to probably represent the AL in the World Series, however these odds are not good at all. As I list all of the odds for each league first, then the World Series, I will make some notes up. I have two teams in the NL that I have already wagered with and I am coming up roses on them so far. It is time for Gambling 101. Read the rest of this entry
MLB Reports Monthly Power Rankings: July 2012
Wednesday July.4, 2012
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)-We are going to bring you monthly power rankings every month of the season. There will be a few notes written for each team. Please feel free to let us know your thoughts. The Texas Rangers are the top ranked team yet once again, although teams are certainly gaining on the them in the last month. If this report was being done last week I might have put the New York Yankees in 1st and Texas in 2nd. A 7 game winning streak help preserve another month for Texas on the leader-board. There were superior months by Aaron Hill, Jose Bautista, Joey Votto , Jason Heyward and a new phenomenon was born with Jose Altuve. It was a great month for the MLB. With 20 teams within 5.5 games or less for the playoff races, we are sure to see some serious movements in the Power Rankings in the 2nd half of the season.
Standings taken before play Tuesday July.03/2012
July Power Rankings-Last Month Rank in Parenthesis
1. Texas-50-30 (1) The Rangers rode a 7 game winning streak to end up 18-8 for the last month. David Murphy, Adrian Beltre and Elvis Andrus all hit over .300 in the last 30 days. The Rangers were able to weather a slow spurt from Josh Hamilton, in which he hit .222 with only 4 HRs for the month. Matt Harrison has asserted himself as an ace on the staff with a 5-0 month with a 1.29 ERA, while leading the American League with 11 wins on the year. The Rangers have 6 players going to the ALL-Star Game including 3 starters. Yu Darvish can make a 7th if he is voted into the final roster spot with his rookie campaign of 10-5 so far.
2. NY Yankees 48-31(5) The Yankees have ridden good pitching and a hot bat from Robinson Cano to a 19-7 record over the last month, with a 5 games lead over their competition in the AL East. Cano hit .370 with 12 HRs and 24 RBI in the last month. Derek Jeter is hitting .298 overall but saw his average go from .389 in April, to .283 in May to .232 in June. He still tops a list of 4 Yankees heading to the ALL-Star Game including 23 HR homer man Curtis Granderson. Phil Hughes went 5-1 in the month with a 2.59 ERA and Ivan Nova won his 3 decisions with a miniscule 1.32 ERA. Rafael Soriano has converted 18 out of 19 save opportunities since taking over as team closer.
3. San Francisco 45-30 (9) The Giants went 16-11 in the month and saw a perfect game from Matt Cain, with a few other 1 hitters. The team shutout the Dodgers 3 games in a row in a series last week. The Giants have Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Melky Cabrera starting in KC next week. The Melkman continues to show that last year was no fluke with his .352 Average and he is leading the Major Leagues with 111 base hits. The Giants pitching staff has coped with the loss of Brian Wilson and the ineffectiveness of starter Tim Lincecum, by the rest of the staff having career years.
4. LA Angels 45-35 (12) The Angels have been really steady since the end of May. They just finished going 17-8 in the last 25 days on the backs of ALL-Stars Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo and resurgent Albert Pujols. Trout might be the most exciting player on the planet these days and is a lock for AL Rookie of the Year if he keeps this up. Trout hit .367 over the last month and has taken over the AL batting lead with a .342 AVG. Trumbo hit 10 HRs and drove in 28 RBI for the month and Pujols hit .337. to raise his average 40 points. C.J Wilson was good enough in June to be named as CC Sabathia‘s replacement at the ALL-Star game.
5. Washington 45-32(9) Mike Morse has returned to the lineup with a vengeance during the last week with a .484 average. Super Sub Tyler Moore has also hit .415 in the last 14 games with 4 HRs and 12 RBI. Ian Desmond had 16 Extra base hits for the month to go along with 20 RBI, while he made the ALL-Star game as a reserve. Ryan Zimmerman awoke from a season long slump to plate 17 RBI. Adam LaRoche still contributed 7 HRs and 15 RBI despite a paltry .191 average in June. Stephen Strasburg is 9-3 on the year with a 2.81 ERA and a league leading 122 SO. Gio Gonzalez is 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA. Both Gonzalez and Strasburg made the ALL-Star squad. Read the rest of this entry
Jim Thome Traded to the Baltimore Orioles: Rate That Trade
Sunday July 1st, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: As part of our regular features here on MLB reports, we have a dedicated page to baseball trades. It is not a streaming trade tracker. Rather, it is a highlight of the key baseball trades that take place during the year. We look at the main participants, what was the deal, each team’s logic and deliver a verdict. We call it “Rate That Trade“. Please feel free to bookmark it and check back regularly. If you love baseball deals as much as we do, then we know that you will have your opinion on each respective baseball swap. Leave your comments, send us an e-mail, keep in touch. We love debating baseball deals almost as much as we love reporting and analyzing them.
The big swap on the last day of June went down as follows:
The Philadelphia Phillies trade Jim Thome to the Baltimore Orioles, in exchange for two minor leagues, catcher Gabriel Lino and Pitcher Kyle Simon
Orioles Logic: This deal makes sense on so many levels for Baltimore. This team spent a great deal of time in first place already this year. Currently in 2nd place, the Orioles are 5 games behind the 1st place Yankees. But watch out, Tampa Bay and Boston are only 1.5 games behind Baltimore for 2nd place. This team needs a push to stay in content. Enter Jim Thome. The 41-year old Thome still carries a big home run bat. He is a solid veteran presence on a young team still trying to find itself. Mark Reynolds and Wilson Betemit simply won’t cut it anymore at DH. Chris Davis is likely to take over as the full-time first baseman. While he is not considered a top defensive player, he has shown enough this year offensively to warrant a permanent lineup position. Thome changes the whole complexion of the lineup. Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Nick Markakis (when he returns), Brian Roberts, J.J. Hardy and Davis are nice weapons on their own. But the team needs a definite clean-up hitter. That’s Thome. While he can’t play every day, he will play enough to make a difference. The pressure will be off Jones to be the big bopper. Thome is also patient, something the young Orioles hitters would be well served to learn. Read the rest of this entry
Top Ten Stat of the Week: HRs per AB Career (Active)
Monday June.11, 2012
Russell Branyan has raw power and was never given a chance to play full time despite ranking 6th amongst active players in HRs per AB. Photo courtesy of seattlesportscentral.com
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)- Chicks dig the long ball right? Well so do dudes. There is a certain folklore of a player that can absolutely cream a baseball regardless of their batting average or ability to make contact all of the time. One of my favorite players to watch swing a bat is Russell Branyan. I follow the Seattle Mariners since they are my closest team for geography. I was able to see what Russell “The Muscle” was able to do once he was given a chance to play every day for the Mariners. He rewarded the club by pasting 31 HRs and knocking in 76 RBI in just 116 games during the 2009 year. The next season, he started with the Cleveland Indians before rejoining the Mariners again at the end of June. Branyan would electrify the crowds at Safeco by hitting another 15 HRs in just 205 AB. Branyan hits as many HRs per AB for a rate in his career as Mickey Mantle did. Branyan draws comparisons to another one of my favorite players in Jack Cust with his nickname ‘3TO’, which is short for 3 True Outs. This is a strikeout, walk or HR. Cust never made this upcoming list but he did hit 63 HRs in his first 1000 AB while striking out 430 times! Branyan’s average 162 game season average (with full at bats) would have included striking out 171 times. In this video you can see his power, (also click the link provided from at the top of the page on this link to see another shot of this mammoth blast that Branyan had at Yankee Stadium. You can do this by copying the blue version of the link and pasting it into your browser.)
2012 MLB Draft Preview
Wednesday May 30th, 2012
Bryan Sheehan (MLB Writer): For those who may not know, the MLB’s first-year-player draft starts June 4th. While there may not be a huge name like Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg to create excessive buzz, this year’s draft should be interesting. The first overall pick belongs to the 2011 worst Houston Astros, who surprisingly have one of the shallowest farm systems in baseball. Though the Hunter Pence trade brought in their number one and two prospects, Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton, respectively, the organization is lacking in prospect depth overall. Picking behind the ‘Stros are the Minnesota Twins, with the Mariners and Orioles following. Predicting a draft, especially where there is no clear-cut “number one” prospect is difficult, to say the least. Teams aren’t drafting to fill immediate needs, so much as to bolster a weak area in their organization. For example: it may seem logical for the Phillies to draft a power-hitting first baseman with the 40th pick since Ryan Howard is injured, but really a 2012 draftee wouldn’t be MLB ready for a few years and therefore irrelevant to Howard’s injury. Plus with the changes in this year’s draft as to salaries, teams will no longer have “recommended slots” to play with. Translation: signability will play a bigger part in this year’s draft than ever before. With that being said, here are my predictions for the first ten names to be called on Monday.
Kansas City Royals: Do They Have Enough Pitching to Become Contenders?
Thursday May 24th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: This season was all set up to finally be the year that the Royals would have a good chance to contend. The division became less competitive than normal with the White Sox losing Mark Buehrle and manager Ozzie Guillen, the Twins not making any big moves in the offseason besides signing Josh Willingham, and a second wild card being added to increase the possibility of making the playoffs. Royals’ fans have long waited for the team to make the playoffs as they have only had a winning record once since 1993. This year, the Royals have no shortage of hitting with young stars Eric Hosmer (first base)—who is struggling as of late but is showing signs of coming around, and third baseman, Mike Moustakas who is hitting .285. The Royals also have a strong outfield with Alex Gordon and veteran Jeff Francouer. Prospect Wil Myers, who was just promoted to Triple A, may offer more strength in the future, and Billy Butler, hitting .301 is the designated hitter. With a strong bullpen and hitting lineup beside the slumping Hosmer, right now the only weakness for the Royals is their starting pitching. Presently, Felipe Paulino is an exception with a 1.93 ERA, but it is doubtful that he will keep up his performance. Read the rest of this entry
Cole Hamels: Will the Phillies Third Ace Stay in the City of Brotherly Love?
Wednesday May 16, 2012
Bryan Sheehan (Baseball Writer): Cole Hamels has been with the Phillies Organization since he was drafted by them in the first round of the 2002 draft, when he was just 18 years old. He made his debut with the club at the age of 22, and won the World Series in 2008, taking home the Series MVP award after two solid performances (his second start was cut short by the infamous rain delay that cut Game Five into two parts). Now 28, Hamels is facing the biggest decision of his life, as his contract expires at the end of this season. While he is technically the third starter for the Phillies, behind Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, there is no doubt that Cole is one of the best aces in the league. He finished fifth in Cy Young voting for 2011 after going 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA. And yet, the Phillies don’t seem to worried about resigning or extending their longest tenured pitcher. After all, they do have both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, and considering his prowess, Hamels will likely fetch a gargantuan contract. On the other hand, the Phillies pitching is the only thing keeping them above water right now. So, should the club make a bigger push to resign the ace, or should they look to trade him during the season? Read the rest of this entry
Can the 2012 Phillies Be Saved?
Monday May 14th, 2012
Brendan Henderson: The Phillies are currently in last place in the NL East division with a 17-19 record, YES the Phillies, the team that won the 2008 World Series and the team that has won the NL East division in 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008 and 2007.
Why are the Phillies doing so badly? The hitting has been okay for the Phillies this year despite the absence of stars, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley; the Phillies are 10th in the MLB in batting average with a team batting average of .257. The Phillies aren’t doing the best as in scoring runs and hitting for power though, they have scored 122 runs as a team this year which is the 19th best in the Big Leagues. As for home runs, they are 23rd in the MLB with 22 team homers this year. Their offense has picked up as of recently though. The Phillies pitching on the other hand, hasn’t been up to par so far this season; they are 15th in the league with a team 3.70 ERA. They Phillies’ opponents have a .255 batting average against Phillies pitchers, which is 20th best in the MLB. Read the rest of this entry
No Need to Panic: The Phillies Do Not Need Offensive Help!
Sunday April 15, 2012
Bryan Sheehan: It may only be the middle of April, but already there are masses of Phillies fans ready to jump off a bridge because of the team’s 4-5 record. This is also spurred by the fact that the team has not hit at all on a regular basis, and the lineup seems devoid of any power. The club only has 16 extra base hits, with three of their 11 doubles coming today against the Mets, and a .345 slugging percentage pushes them towards the basement of the MLB. So, with a lineup that features the lanky Hunter Pence as a cleanup hitter and a catcher hitting sixth, is it time to worry about the Phillies 2012 season? Read the rest of this entry
NL East: Value Picks, Up-and-Coming Players and Red Flags in Fantasy Baseball
Wednesday February 29th, 2012
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): The National League East is filled with many big name fantasy players, particularly the Philadelphia Phillies with their starting rotation and hitters like Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, and Pence. However, this division is intriguing, because teams like the Braves have a plethora of up-and-coming players. Furthermore, scattered throughout the rest of the division are players who have potential to provide sneaky good value. Read the rest of this entry
Inside the Mind of a Devoted Phillies Phan: Thoughts Going into the 2012 Season
Sunday February 19th, 2012
Christina Angelos (Guest Writer – MLB reports):
FAVORITE MOMENT
One strike away; nothing-and-two, the count to Hinske. Fans on the their feet; rally towels are being waved. Brad Lidge stretches. The 0-2 pitch — swing and a miss, struck him out! The Philadelphia Phillies are 2008 World Champions of baseball! Brad Lidge does it again, and stays perfect for the 2008 season! 48-for-48 in save opportunities, and let the city celebrate! Don’t let the 48-hour wait diminish the euphoria of this moment, and the celebration. And it has been 28 years since the Phillies have enjoyed a World Championship; 25 years in this city that a team that has enjoyed a World Championship, and the fans are ready to celebrate. What a night! ~ Harry Kalas, Phillies broadcaster
After nearly 50 hours had passed since the first pitch of Game 5 of the 2008 World Series, the Phillies finished off the Rays in an elimination game. Brad Lidge remained perfect all season and closed out the final game with a strikeout. The Phillies earned their second championship in their franchise history and the first championship since 1983.
I waited 19 years for this kind of happiness and joy. And when it happened, I had no words. I’ve seen the good and bad things in my life, but just once, I had absolutely no words. No words. Nothing could match the excitement I felt at that moment. Nothing. I am glad to know I have seen a championship once and hoping for more.
That’s why we follow baseball. That’s why we engage so much effort in such an endeavor. Sometimes it rewards us. And October 29, 2008, I was rewarded. We were all rewarded. We were champions. Champions of baseball.
Easily the greatest moment. Read the rest of this entry
Ask the Reports: Your Baseball Questions Answered – Sunday January 15th, 2012
Sunday January 15th, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: Any news on moves for Derrek Lee & Casey Kotchman? With Yanks recent pitching acquisitions, does Boston pursue Roy Oswalt more aggressively? Rick
MLB reports: Great questions Rick. No and no are the answers. Sorry! To answer your first question: Lee and Kotchman are plans “c” and “d”, if that, for contending teams. Teams on the rise would prefer to use younger players at first base. So the market for both is limited at best. Both Lee and Kotchman will need to fight to get full-time jobs. Kotchman will find something based on his solid 2011 campaign. Perhaps a return to the Rays is in order. Lee on the other hand, is getting on in years. I could see him retiring at this point, or in a year from now. It just depends on how desperate some teams are to get a veteran presence on their team and if trust is there for either player. With regards to Oswalt, I see him signing very soon. Boston could use him, yes, but I am not sensing a fit. The top teams for his services appear to be the Rangers and Jays. At 1-year and $8 million, he will likely have 20+ teams pursuing him. Boston does need Roy Oswalt in the worst way at this point. He would help stabilize a rotation that needs his presence. But this decision will come down to geography and fit for the player.
Q: Is Jesus Montero– Victor Martinez good? How far is J.P. Arencibia or Travis d’Arnaud from Montero? Derek
MLB reports: The Montero questions begin! I made the comparison on the trade of the trade that Montero was comparable to V-Mart and I stand behind that one. Carlos Santana is another good comparison. Extremely strong bat, will hit for high average with good pop. Glove is questionable. Montero will be good, I am just on the fence on whether it will happen in Seattle. The hope is that with a young team, he will blossom into a superstar. It will depend on whether he feels any pressure to live up to replacing Michael Pineda and ends up putting too much pressure on himself. He seems like a confident young man, so he should do well. The V-Mart threshold is a high one to reach. But we are definitely talking in the same category. Now d’Arnaud and Arencibia are a different story. Being based in Toronto, I get asked on these guys often. Here is my take put simply. Arencibia is a good guy, with good power in his bat. He is popular in the clubhouse and seen as a developing defensive catcher. His liabilities are his low average, high strikeouts and inability to take a walk. A .219 AVG and .282 OBP don’t cut it in my book. If JP doesn’t develop, he will become the Rob Deer of catchers. Travis d’Arnaud, on the other hand, may not have JP’s power (debatable), but he will definitely hit for a much higher average. He also will need to learn to take walks and cut down on strikeouts, but he should be more consistent offensively than Arencibia. Defensively, I have heard mixed things- but both will stick at catcher. So defensively, both Arencibia and d’Arnaud are above Montero. But Montero’s bat is far superior to either of the other guys. He is major league ready now to hit, while JP and Travis are still learning to hit consistently. If I had to rate each, I would give Montero an 8/10, d’Arnaud a 6/10 and Arencibia a 5/10. Montero is far ahead, with only d’Arnaud having the best chance to close the gap.
Q: Do the Phillies really expect Ryan Howard to be fully “baseball ready” before June 1st? Old Man Mack
MLB reports: LOL. That is the hope sir. If I had to be a fly on the wall, I bet the Phillies are hoping that he will be ready before that. But if the Kendrys Morales injury has taught us anything, is that you never know how some of these freak accidents will heal. My crystal ball sees Howard back after the All-Star break. Unless he is 110% healed, why risk it? His long-term health and productivity are at risk. I would not be shocked if Howard took longer to heal and had to miss all of 2012. But chances are that he will be back, just not till sometime in July or August of 2012. If he is back sooner, he better be ready…or a setback could be around the corner. I would say the bigger question is how long he stays in the lineup, rather than when he is back.
Q: What are the Tigers chances on Yoenis Cespedes? Michael
MLB reports: The Cespedes rumors are flying fast and furious. The teams that have been most linked to him are the Marlins and the Tigers. There have been stories of 5 teams, 10, 20…all sorts of numbers thrown around about this guy. Now, people are questioning why he is playing winter ball and in fact hurting his stock. My gut feel is that there isn’t as high of a demand for him as people suspect and that teams are cautious at throwing big money at an unknown quantity. But even if he doesn’t put up the best numbers this offseason, it has to be considered that he is rusty and been away from the game for some time. People should not expect Babe Ruth immediately, just to view his tools and to see if the mechanics are there. I like the Marlins chances best at signing Cespedes. Team Latino gets a 50% chance of landing Cespedes, with the Tigers at roughly 20%.
Q: Does Vance Worley come back to earth in his sophomore season? Justin
MLB reports: Nah man, Vance never left! Just kidding, but I know what you mean. Vance Worley was unbelievable in 2011, with an 11-3 record, 3.01 ERA and 1.230 WHIP. His won/loss record will depend largely on his offensive support and bullpen, so that we will leave to fate somewhat. I see Vance throwing quality strikes and keeping his walks low. He will not be an ace, but he will be very steady. He has the minor league track record and has already proven himself at the highest stage (in one of the most pressure filled environments, Philadelphia). Expect some regression, but not too much. Vance Worley is the real deal. A sophomore jinx should be avoided, but he will still take time to develop. Remember he is only 24-years of age. By year 3 or 4, expect a stud 20 game winner to emerge.
Q: With the new players eligible for the 2013 Hall of Fame class (Bonds, Clemens, Sosa etc.): will any be inducted? Ken
MLB reports: Ken. Ken. Ken. Mr. I say that Tim Raines MUST be inducted. 🙂 He is back for more… Just playing with you Ken, you know we love ya. 48.7% of the vote Ken, I guess the voters aren’t all sold…yet. Here is my knock on Raines- get ready. Played 23 seasons. Not a bad thing in its own right. But definitely inflated some of his numbers. 980 RBIs. So he averaged less than 50 a year. 1571 runs scored. For 23 years played, not fantastic. A hall of fame leadoff man should easily be scoring 100+ per year, even on poor teams. Raines only did it 6 times. .294 AVG and .385 OBP. Very good. Like those numbers. The man did not hit many doubles or triples. He was basically a singles and stolen base machine. Now go check out our man Vince Coleman. Both in their primes, they were one of the top stolen base threats. Raines got more hits and got caught less stealing. But then Coleman appears to have attempted more stolen bases. Raines played longer and ultimately had the stronger career. But in the prime years, I can’t say that Raines was that much more spectacular than Coleman. Raines is very good and will get into the hall of fame the Jim Rice route. But it is not the Hall of Very Good. It is the Hall of Fame.
Now with your true question: Will any of the new eligible players be inducted into Cooperstown in 2013? The candidates are Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Sosa, Schilling, Biggio and Lofton. I can tell you right now, based on Palmeiro and McGwire’s poor standings, that there is no chance in heck that Bonds, Clemens or Sosa are getting in. No way. No how. The ones I see getting in are Biggio and Piazza. Secretly, I have fantasized at night about Biggio and Bagwell getting in together. It was just meant to be. If Bagwell does not get in next year, then he will have to wait for some time. I feel next year will be his year. Piazza has to get in as a 1st ballot hall of famer. The numbers he put up as a catcher demand it. Next year is the year that hall of fame voters get their true test. If Piazza is out, then the hall of fame will really have to sit down and work out a better set of criteria for voting. The writers are going to feel like they are on a raft without paddles…it is time to fix the voting mess once and for all. Are these guys hall of famers or not? Let’s lay down the law and be done with it. No more fence-sitting. 2013 will be a big year for sure.
Q: Over/under 13.5 psychotic episodes in Miami? Sam
MLB reports: Under. Way under! I think you will see maybe 5-6 big blow ups. Carlos Zambrano will get into 1-2 confrontations. Hanley will explode about the position change once. LoMo will have one twitter incident. Ozzie will have a couple of issues likely develop. Apparently the Miami Marlins are being considered for the baseball reality show this year. If that happens, watch out. That will be Grade A television!!!
Final Q: Will the Brewers be able to win the central despite losing Prince and no Braun for first 50 games? Eric
MLB reports: My brain says no and my heart says maybe. The reality is that the Brewers are in tough. Very tough. The loss of Prince will be huge (when it happens) and same with Braun if the suspension is upheld. But even with those guys, the Brewers would still be in tough. The Cardinals, even with the loss of the Pujols and La Russa and absence of Duncan would still be a strong team. The Reds though are the team to beat, as they are frontrunners to take the NL Central this year. The Brewers still have Greinke and Gallardo, so they have a chance. But I just see the Reds as the class of the division this year. The Cardinals are going to regress and will have a tough time defending their title. But without their main offensive stars, the Brewers go from stars to ordinary. The window appears to be closing on the Brewers… and opening for the Reds in 2012.
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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen) Follow @mlbreports
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