Top Ten Stat of The Week: Odds To Win The AL/NL/WS
Monday July.9, 2012
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024)- I thought we would try a different top ten today with the ALL-Star Break here today. This morning I did some research on the odds of what http://www.bet365.com thinks will happen for the rest of the MLB Year based on their gambling futures. Gambling is an increasing industry like no other entity in the world. The NFL is better suited for ‘punters’ to throw down some bucks at Vegas. They have only one game a week and the gambling experts think that baseball is easier for the bad teams to beat the good teams. I will tell you as one of these ‘so called experts’, they are completely right. The worst teams in baseball usually can still beat the best teams 1 out of 3 games in a series. This makes normal gambling for a regular season game really hard to make any money, or minimize losses. I do think that betting who makes the playoffs and who wins it all has some good value picks.
Y0u have to search for the value in anything. I never like to play the #1 favorites of each league because they simply don’t pay enough of an odd. Right now, Bet365.com has the Texas Rangers at +175 to win the AL, or The Yankees at +190. I love these two teams to probably represent the AL in the World Series, however these odds are not good at all. As I list all of the odds for each league first, then the World Series, I will make some notes up. I have two teams in the NL that I have already wagered with and I am coming up roses on them so far. It is time for Gambling 101.
The Odds represent how much money you would win all based on a $100 bet
Odds To Win Top 10: National League-According to Bet365.com
1. Washington Nationals +375
The Nationals are 49-34 and have the best record in the division. I don’t like that they are the favorite. An innings limit for Strasburg, a slump may hit Bryce Harper at the wrong time, or the lack of experience could come back to haunt them. Stay away from the Nats at this odd.
2. Cincinnati Reds 47-38 +450
At 47-38 and one game back of the Pirates, I like the Reds as the winner of the NL Central or one of the Wild Cards, however I am not sold on the starting pitching besides Cueto in the Post Season. Mat Latos was awesome for the Padres in 2010 yet struggled in September of that year.
3. San Francisco Giants 46-40 +450
The Giants will win the NL West if Tim Lincecum can bounce back to even 80% of his normal self. The offense has surprised. I don’t like the odd here, obviously it was contrived because the odds-makers think the Giants are heavy favorites in their division.
4. Atlanta Braves 46-40 +600
The Atlanta Braves have won 4 in a row and are a good bet to win the NL in catching the Nationals. There is value here for a wager. The team has solid aces in Tim Hudson and Tommy Hanson for the playoffs. An even better bet is to bet them to catch the Nationals at a +275 odd while being just 4 games behind them for the NL East division, (give me a minute and excuse me while I do this right now.)
5. Los Angeles Dodgers 47-40 +800
Quite frankly the Dodgers are in some serious trouble unless they land a few bats at the deadline. I would not be letting Matt Kemp be in the HR derby either while on the DL. The Dodgers should pray that he gets eliminated quick. If he is hurt in this competition, or has a sub-par second half, Donnie Baseball will be blamed for letting him go to the ASG. I am predicting the Dodgers won’t even make the playoffs and will destroy everyone in the off-season by grabbing ever free agent available with Magic coming in.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates 48-37 +900
I only highlighted them because I placed a nice wager a few weeks ago when they were +1600 for the same category. This odd was just posted this morning and dropped this much. I think the Pirates have a great shot at the playoffs, however I could see them winning 88-91 games and being inched out for a playoff spot by the Cardinals and 2 other Wild Card teams. At this odd, I don’t like it.
7. St. Louis Cardinals 46-40 +1000
The post Albert Pujols team is a crapshoot. I don’t like it that Chris Carpenter is out for the season and Adam Wainwright has not looked like himself. Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday are good but I can’t see them going back to the World Series. Pass on the Cards.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks 42-43 +1400
The Diamnondbacks offense has been lights out the last 5 weeks and they have capable starters in Trevor Cahill, Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson. Eventually they will get Stephen Drew in the lineup and look for a better second half from Justin Upton. This is a strong value pick with the Dodgers fading and the Giants will be hard pressed to duplicate their first half offensive attack.
9. Philadelphia Phillies 37-51 +1600
If Roy Halladay was around right now, I would think this may be worth a few dollars to wager. The Phils have been the best 2nd half team in the last 5 years. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley are battling injuries. Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez are gone. Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino are a bit older. Carlos Ruiz will not hit .350 all year as a catcher. Will the team trade Cole Hamels? I would say if the Phillies are your club, put some money down, just not a lot. They are 9.5 games out of a Wild Card Spot.
10. Miami Marlins 41-44 +1800
Don’t bother wasting your money. Giancarlo Stanton is injured. Heath Bell has transformed into Heathcliff Slocumb. Hanley Ramirez is not playing MVP caliber ball. Jose Reyes, where is he? I fear for any water coolers in the second half with Carlos Zambrano starting to derail. Miami is 4.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.
10. New York Mets 46-40 +1800
I was able to pick up the Mets at +2300 to win the NLCS for a large wager and continue to be surprised at even this odd. You have two aces in Johan Santana-and R.A. Dickey would be my NL CY Young right now. David Wright would be a top-3 NL MVP candidate. At 46-40, they are a half game behind the Braves for the 2nd wild card berth. Ike Davis is starting to mash and Daniel Murphy did hit .320 last year-and is heading towards that mark again lately. Best Value pick out of the lot. Most of their wins have come against teams over .500.
Odds To Win The American League- According to Bet365.com
1. Texas Rangers 52-33 +175
The Rangers are awesome, but I can’t see a team going back to the dance for a third time in a row. It would be the first time in the AL since the Yankees lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks during their 4th straight run to the WS. The odd doesn’t pay enough for the reward.
2. New York Yankees 51-34 +190
They Yankees are almost like a mirage. They are my favorite team, yet only Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter are having great seasons. Jeter’s average had been plummeting until a July rally. It is a homer happy team, littered with .260 hitters. They better win the division, plus have the best record in the AL in order to head back to the World Series. Oh yeah… I think they are cooked if they play Detroit or Los Angeles. In my opinion, they can beat the White Sox or the Rangers. Like the Rangers, the odds are not there.
3. LA Angels 48-38 +750
Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo and Albert Pujols have been killing the ball lately. Trout is probably the AL MVP as of right now. Their pitching is the best in the AL. They will make the playoffs for sure as either the winner or a Wild Card, so your wager will see the playoffs at least. This is a smart bet for the rate of return.
4. Chicago White Sox 47-38 +1000
The odds are there and late in the season, they will have a schedule that includes Minnesota, Kansas City and Cleveland in heavy doses. While the AL East teams beat the crap out of each other, they might all miss out on the 2nd Wild card slot, paving the way for a AL Central team to capitalize on it. That is if the White Sox even relinquish the division lead. Youk was a great pickup. Put some sheckles on these guys.
5. Detroit Tigers 44-42 +1050
I like this odd. Justin Verlander and the rest of the pitching staff are looking great the last week. Quintin Berry and Austin Jackson have been great table setters for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. They are still their own divisional favorites for the Central even though they are 3.5 games back of the White Sox. Pounce on this odd, this will not stay at this price for long.
6. Tampa Bay Rays 45-41 +1200
I don’t like what is happening with this team. The Evan Longoria injury has crippled the offense. This looks like an off year. The Rays are only half a game back but they have a killer schedule looming, However with that second wild card there, don’t be surprised if they grab it. I just don’t think they can hang with the big boys.
7. Boston Red Sox 43-43 +1400
”The Curse of the Youk’ as we call it at the Reports will torment them. Jacoby Ellsbury hurt, Dustin Pedroia can’t stay on the field and where did the slugger Adrian Gonzalez go? Josh Beckett and Jon Lester are not right. Although they are only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, stay clear from this team with your wallet.
8. Toronto Blue Jays 43-43 +1400
Ricky Romero has a horrible ERA for a guy with 8 wins so far. I doubt Edwin Encarnacion duplicates his first half. The 1-4 lineup is the best in baseball right now. Too many Blue Jays pitchers on our TJ Tracker. Not the Jays year, but I like their future.
9. Cleveland Indians 44-41 +3000
The Indians are a scrappy, disciplined club but 85 wins seems to be their max win total. I don’t think it will be enough. They should try and add a power bat, Vlad Guerrero anyone?
10. Baltimore Orioles 46-40 +3300
A team on the rise, however if they can just post a win total over .500, I will be impressed. A tough schedule will prevent them from the playoffs. Watch out for the O’s to ruin other teams dreams though. Going forward in future year, the team looks strong as the Yankees and Red Sox become older and older each passing season.
Odds to Win The World Series Top 15 According to Bet365.com
1. Texas Rangers +350
Just like the AL comments, the Rangers are giving no value. Teams rarely slug their way to the World Series
2. New York Yankees +375
The Yankees are a good bet any year, but not at this odd
3. Washington Nationals +900
If they make the World Series, that would be amazing. This is not a good odd.
4. LA Angels +1100
I would put some money on the Angels. If they were to face a team in the ALCS, you could always hedge that on a series bet versus the Yankees or the Rangers. If they win the ALCS, they will win the WS.
5. San Francisco Giants +1300
This may be the worst pick on the board.
6. Cincinnati +1300
While Cincinnati has a great club, I think any of the AL clubs would beat them in 5 games or less for the World Series
7. Atlanta +1500
There is value here for Atlanta. They probably have the best chance out of any of the NL clubs to give an AL team a ride for their money.
8. Chicago White Sox +1600
If they make the playoffs that would be huge. Not enough contact in the playoffs will kill them. I love Adam Dunn, but he could hit .175 the rest of the year.
9. Detroit Tigers +1700
I like the Tigers at this price because of Justin Verlander and the combo of Fielder and Cabrera. If I was Leyland, I would go old school with Verlander and chuck him games 1,4 and 7 in the ALCS should they make it that far.
10. LA Dodgers +1800
It is too bad Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are hurt. This has dampened what could have been a great year.
11. Tampa Bay Rays +2000
The Pitching is there, the hitting is not. The AL East is too strong.
12. Pittsburgh +2000
The Pirates would be elated just to make the World Series. This may be worth a few dollars. Again, you could always hedge a World Series bet once you get there with a team that has this high of an odd.
13. St. Louis Cardinals +2100
There has been no repeat champion since the Yanks won 3 in a row 12 years ago. Especially a team that lost their best playoff performer from the previous year.
14. Toronto Blue Jays +2200
Non pitching at all. Maybe in 2015
15. Boston Red Sox +2200
Not their year.
Others of Note
If you have a few dollars, this would be like Roulette. If they make the playoffs at all, it will be a great miracle. If in, look out though as they would be playing great!!
New York Mets +4000
This is worth a few dollars too. As crazy as it seems. What if you threw R.A. Dickey 3 times in a series? They best hope the Yankees don’t make the Fall Classic as an opponent though.
***Thank you to our Baseball Writer- Douglas “Chuck” Booth for preparing today’s feature on MLB reports. To learn more about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames” and Chuck Booth, you can follow Chuck on Twitter (@ChuckBooth3024) and you can also follow Chuck’s website for his Guinness Book of World Record Bid to see all 30 MLB Park in 23 days click here or on the 30 MLB Parks in 23 days GWR tracker at the Reports click here. To Purchase or read about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames Book, ” please click here ***
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Posted on July 9, 2012, in The Rest: Everything Baseball and tagged adam wainwright, adrian gonzalez, al mvo, al mvp, albert pujols, alcs, andre ethier, arizona diamondbacks, ASG, Atlanta Braves, austin jackson, baltimore orioles, bet365.com, boston red sox, bryce harper, carlos beltran, carlos ruiz, carlos zambrano, chicago white sox, chris carpenter, Chuck Booth. fastest 30 ballgames, cincinnati reds, cleveland indians, cole hamels, daniel hudson, daniel murphy, david wright, derek jeter, detroit tigers, dustin pedroia, edwin encarnacion, evan longoria, fall classic, giancarlo stanton, hanley ramirez, heath bell, heathcliff slocumb, ian kennedy, ike davis, jacoby ellsbury, jayson werth, jimmy rollins, johan santana, johnny cueto, jon lester, jose reyes, josh beckett, justin upton, justin verlander, Kansas city, la angels, los angeles dodgers, magic johnson, mark trumbo, mat latos, matt kemp, miami marlins, Mike Trout, new york mets, new york yankees, nl mvp, nlcs, philadelphia phillies, prince fielder, quintin Berry, raul ibanez, ricky romero, robinson cano, roy halladay, ryan howard, san francisco dodgers, shane victorino, st louis cardinals, stephen drew, tampa bay rays, texas rangers, tim hudson, tim lincecum, tommy hanson, toronto blue jays, trevor cahill, vlad guerrero, washington natiionals, wild card, world series. Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on Top Ten Stat of The Week: Odds To Win The AL/NL/WS.