All Of The MLB Reports Placed Bets Updated for 2016 MLB: Big On The NL Value for WS, Nice Value On O’s For AL
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) Follow @stokes_hunter21
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Disclaimer: All bets were made in the State Of Nevada, or via Canada (by Chuck Booth) where bets are legal online.
So I have let my profits ride on this winter heading into futures betting in 2016 MLB. I thought I would take you into a little look on what I have thrown down so far – and what got me here over the last few seasons.
We have always fully disclosed our picks prior to the actual games being played. The track record is way above industry standards, so I hope our selections this year don’t get thrown into the woodchipper at the ends of the year.
In 2014, I made 3 over/under selections (Washington over 91.5 wins, Kansas City over 81.5 Wins, and the Padres under 79.5 wins). Made a nice profit of a few hundred dollars for that – sporting a perfect 3 – 0 clip.
For my initial World Series picks in 2014, I wagered the Rangers, Rays but I was smart enough to take a +2500 preseason SF Giants selection.
Halfway through the season I plunked down some money on the Royals when they were near .500, talking of firing Ned Yost, and running at an +8000 odd to win the World Series.
I also was able to win money on the Orioles for the AL East Division, and at +5000 to win the World Series, I was able to hedge bet both KC and BAL in the 1st round of the postseason, and also the World Series.
2015 saw most of my money come on the heels of player performances. My 3 World Series picks for the preseason odds were the Jays at +2000, Nats and M’s also killed me on the surface. I was able to hedge bet in the ALCS, and I also doubled down when KC was only at -115 odd after taking a 1 – 0 ALCS lead. Also let that money ride in the World Series when the Royals were underdogs despite hosting a potential 4 home games, and being so close to winning it in 2014 already.
The performances of the players I won with were: Jose Altuve (over 200.5 hits), Chris Davis and Bryce Harper won me money with their HR totals going over. I collected cash on hits (under) for Dustin Pedroia and HRs for Adrian Gonzalez. I went 9 – 4 in those categories.
2015 Winter Wagering
As soon as Zack Greinke signed with the Diamondbacks in winter of 2015, I had my buddy Chuck (MLB Reports Owner here) wager $100 on a 40/1 odd for Arizona to win the 2016 World Series before the line moved. The next week it jumped all the way to +1500.
I have since bet $50 on the Dodgers at their prior value of +1500 – while now already jumping to +1000. I also have thrown down $60 on both the Nats and Mets at +1100. I am all about the National League winning the Fall Classic this year.
I am picking the Cubs to win the Fall Classic in tomorrow’s Predictions, but the +450 = +600 odds they have all offseason doesn’t send my skirt up in the air. No value there.
The only cash I have thrown down on the American League is for the Mariners to win the AL at +1300, and also the Orioles to win the American League at +2800 respectively. I took neither to win the Fall Classic.
I will be selecting the Jays to meet the Cubs in the World Series, but again I can’t warrant betting +1000 on the Canadian franchise, as I would take the Mets, Nats, Giants or Cubs in a best of 7 against them. The AL total for the Jays at +500 is not worth any cabbage.
Last months over/under totals had me rushing to bet with Atlantis Casino in Reno, NV.
ALL $60 Wagers:
Mets to win the World Series at 11/1 – Pays $660
Nats to win the World Series at 11/1 – Pays $660
Total Bets: $120
ALL $50 Wagers:
SF Giants: Over 90 wins (-115)
LA Dodgers: Over 87 wins (-110)
St. Louis Cardinals: Over 87.5 wins (-110)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Over 87 wins (-105)
Washington Nationals: Over 87 wins (-115)
NY Mets: Over 88 wins (-110)
Chicago Cubs: Over 89 Wins (-120)
Insight: I only need 5 of the 7 clubs to go over to turn a nice profit. I project them all to win 90 or more games.
Total Bets: $350: Overall – $470
All Wagers – $50
Houston Astros: Over 85.5 wins (-110)
SD Padres: Under 74 wins (+100)
Cincinnati Reds: Under 71 wins (-120)
Milwaukee Brewers: Under 71.5 wins (-110)
Colorado Rockies: Under 68.5 wins (+100)
Philadelphia Phillies: Under 66.5 wins (+100)
Atlanta Braves: Under 65 wins (+100)
Total Bets: $350: Overall – $820
Again a call to Mr. Booth for a joint venture bet. Here is what we put money on. We went for some value plays.
To win the Overall MLB Regular Season HR crown in 2016
Giancarlo Stanton $100 on 7/1 odd pays $700 profit
Nolan Arenado $35 on 22/1 odd pays $770 profit
Yoenis Cespedes $10 on 100/1 odd pays $1000 profit.
Manny Machado $10 on 100/1 odd pays $1000 profit.
Kyle Schwarber $7 on 100/1 odd pays $700 profit.
Chris Carter, $4 on 300/1 odd pays $1200 profit.
Odds available at sportsbook.ag
Total Bets: $166 – Overall: $986
Added to the list in March – ALL bet365.com,
Baltimore Orioles $50 Bet to win the American League at 28/1 – Pays$5 $1550 on bet365.com
Baltimore Orioles $39 Bet to win the AL East at +13/1 odd – $546
KC Royals – $115 Bet on them to go over 84.5 wins on bet365.com – Pays $215.00
Miguel Cabrera to win the AL MVP $60 at 7/1 odds – Pays $490
More than 4.5 no hitters for the year – $50 at +115? Yes for a $50 Wager- Pays $107.5
Will any pitcher strikeout 16 batters for the year at -140? Yes for a $100 Wager – Pays 171.42
Total Bets: $414 – Overall – $1400
Odds Courtesy of vegasinsider.com
2016 MLB REGULAR SEASON INDIVIDUAL PROPS
ALL Bets – $30
MOST HR’s By: Any Player
Over 44½ (-110)
Under 44½ (-110)
Take the Over on this for sure. Chris Davis had 47 HRs last year, and should have a crack to break the 45+ HR barrier again.
If he doesn’t do it, than I would peg Giancarlo Stanton for this mark (if healthy). Of course Bryce Harper and Mike Trout could pass this total if all things fall right as well.
MOST RUNS By: Any Player
Over 121½ (-110)
Under 121½ (-110)
Josh Donaldson barely eclipsed this last year in his MVP season – and could eclipse this with a full year of Troy Tulowitzki backing up Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Bryce Harper scored 118 runs last year – and his supporting cast left a lot of chances to reel him in even more.
Harper reached base 300 times in 2015. While I think his BA might go down this season, I think his Intentional Walks soar through the roof.
I have to think one of the 2 gentlemen go over this mark.
MOST STOLEN BASES By: Any Player
Over 63½ (-110)
Under 63½ (-110)
Again pick the over. Billy Hamilton should steal well over 70 Bags with Cincinnati giving him a chance to bat all year with no worry about the Reds losing at all. Dee Gordon thieved 58 bags last year – and is capable of going over 63 himself.
MOST TRIPLES By : Any Player
Over 12½ (-120)
Under 12½ (+100)
Very surprised on how low this is. 15 Triples is completely achievable for a lot of guys. I mean Evan Gattis had 11 3 baggers last campaign
MOST LOSSES By: Any Pitcher
Over 17 (-120)
Under 17 (+100)
With 6 clubs in the National League approaching the 100 loss barrier, I fully expect someone to be headed to the Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman 2003 status.
MOST STRIKEOUTS By: Any Pitcher
Over 276½ (-110)
Under 276½ (-110)
The theme is over all the way. Clayton Kershaw fanned 301 guys – and Chris Sale sent 274 batters back to ride pine even though he missed out on 3 Game Starts.
MOST RBI’s By: Any Player
Over 127½ (-110)
Under 127½ (-110)
Over. Over. Over. Harper, Stanton, Donaldson, Bryant all may top 120 RBI. Plenty of guys in contract years like Yoenis Cespedes, Bautista and Encarnacion could take a run.
MOST HITS By: Any Player
Over 208½ (-110)
Under 208½ (-110)
Okay, We have found our 1st under. 200 hits is hard in today’s world. Gordon and Altuve both accomplished the feat last year, but were uder the 208.5 clip.
I see a slight regression for Gordon here, and Altuve should be right around the 200 base knocks area. The best of the Average hitters like Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Cabrera and Trout all walk so much that this may be too hard to accomplish.
My pick for a guy to do it would be Xander Bogaerts, who belted 197 hits in 654 PA’s as a 22-year-old last year.
MOST DOUBLES By: Any Player
Over 51½ (-110)
Under 51½ (-110)
The 2nd under has spoken. 45 was the benchmark by Michael Brantley for the MLB last season. If I had to guess a guy to smack 50+ doubles in 2016 – it would be Matt Carpenter (who led the NL with 44 — 2B, but hit a surprising 28 HRs).
Another doubles machine I like would be Miguel Cabrera in the American League. Still picking under. 52 is a lot of 2 baggers.
MOST COMPLETE GAMES By: Any Pitcher
Over 5 (-110)
Under 5 (-110)
No clubs like extending their Starters this late. Who honestly even has a green light to go 9 without regard to pitch count? Bumgarner, Kershaw, Sale and David Price I am betting under.
Total Bets: $300 – Overall: $1700
Individual Player Props
Jose Altuve (Houston: 2015 – 200 Hits)
Over 187½ (-110)
Under 187½ (-110)
Won this bet last year, and will pick it off again. Altuve has back to back 200 hit campaigns – with also notching 225 base knocks in 2015.
Robinson Cano (Seattle: 2015 – 179 Hits)
Over 175½ (-110)
Under 175½ (-110)
This is my best bet on the board. Cano struggled in the 1st half of 2015 – but reeled in 92 hits over his last 70 Games. This man has no less than 179 hits every year since 2008. Bet this one. Cano at worst will repeat his 2015 year, and he is at least always healthy.
Manny Machado* (Baltimore: 2015 – 181 Hits)
Over 167½ (-110)
Under 167½ (-110)
Bet the over. How do they figure Machado is going to tail off 15 hits? I think he will improve his totals.
Adam Jones* (Baltimore: 2015 – 147 Hits)
Over 169½ (-110)
Under 169½ (-110)
Bet the under. Jones is on the wrong side of 30, and will likely see his Batting Average come down on a yearly basis going forward.
Paul Goldschmidt* (Arizona: 2015 – 182 Hits)
Over 169½ (-110)
Under 169½ (-110)
Love the over on this. May be my 2nd favorite wager on the board behind Cano. ‘Goldy has hit for 182 base knocks in 2 of the last 3 years, and would have surely gone over in 2014 had his injury not sidelined him for the last 2 months.
Total Bets: $200 – Overall: $1900
To show everyone I put my money where my mouth is: I have been saying all winter long that I believe the Rays are not as strong as most experts believe. I have put down a Hondo on them to go under 82.5 wins at +100. It pays back $200.
Total Bets: $100 – Overall: $2000
1st 2 bets on the Board in Late 2015:
Arizona D’Backs to win the World Series 40/1 – $50 Wager – Pays $2050.
LA Dodgers to win the World Series 15/1 – $50 Wager – Pays $800.
Total Bets: $2100- Overall: $2100
There is already $2100 on the board for wagers this year. This dough represents all of the profit Chuck and I have raked in since the beginning of 2013. I will be placing some more dough throughout the year. But that is it for now.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their other partners.***
A big thanks goes out to our ‘Chief Writer/Part Owner’ Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured post.
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Posted on April 1, 2016, in gambling 101, Players: Fantasy Baseball Articles and tagged adam jones, adrian gonzalez, anthony rizzo, arizona diamondbacks, Baseball Articles a.j. pollock, BIlly Hamilton, charlie blackmon, chris davis, chris sale, cincinnati reds, clayton kershaw, colorado rockies, craig kimbrel, david price, dee gordon, edwin encarnacion, evan gattis, Gamblng Bets 2016, giancarlo stanton, houston astros, ian kinsler, Jeremy Bonderman, jose altuve, jose bautista, kansas city royals, la dodgers, madison bumgarner, manny machado, matt carpenter, michael brantley, miguel cabrera, Mike Maroth, Mike Trout, milwaukee brewers, MLB Fantasy 2016, Mookie Betts, ned yost, nolan arenado, ny mets, paul goldschmidt, pittsburgh pirates, Regular Season Player Prop Bets MLB 2016, robinson cano, san diego padres, sf giants, st louis cardinals, toronto blue jays, troy tulowitzki, washington nationals, xander bogaerts, yoenis cespedes, zack greinke. Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on All Of The MLB Reports Placed Bets Updated for 2016 MLB: Big On The NL Value for WS, Nice Value On O’s For AL.
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