MIlwaukee Is Making A Boneheaded Move If Non-Tendering Chris Carter: Should Have Learned From Houston Last Year
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Last year at this time I made the point that the Houston Astros made a big mistake in non-tendering Chris Carter. At that juncture, the man has clubbed 90 HRS over the previous 3 campaigns with the Astros.
Houston struggled at the First Base Position all year in 2016 – with a collection of Tyler White, Marwin Gonzalez, Luis Valbuena and Yulieski Gurriel. With just bringing forth 84 wins. with the cutoff for the playoffs at 89 victories, one could say the franchise could have used the slugger ( and his .821 OPS, 41 HRs and 94 RBI).
The ‘Stros’ finished with production of .232/.299/.381 – 19 HRs, 62 RBI out of the position – which had a huge factor in them not reaching the playoffs, having the 2nd worst offensive output for the American League (Yankees – the worst).
Carter is a powerful dude who is a kind of the new Adam Dunn of the Majors. If he qualified for HR/PER AB ALL – Time with 3000 PA (he has 2645 his 14.97 AB per homer would rank him 13th in Major League Baseball History. So where is the love?
HRS PER AB – MLB Career – Minimum 3000 PA
|1.||Mark McGwire (16)||10.61||R|
|2.||Babe Ruth+ (22)||11.76||L|
|3.||Barry Bonds (22)||12.92||L|
|4.||Jim Thome (22)||13.76||L|
|5.||Ralph Kiner+ (10)||14.11||R|
|6.||Harmon Killebrew+ (22)||14.22||R|
|7.||Giancarlo Stanton (7, 26)||14.33||R|
|8.||Sammy Sosa (18)||14.47||R|
|9.||Ted Williams+ (19)||14.79||L|
|10.||Manny Ramirez (19)||14.85||R|
|11.||Adam Dunn (14)||14.90||L|
|12.||Ryan Howard (13, 36)||14.94||L|
|13.||Juan Gonzalez (17)||15.11||R|
|Dave Kingman (16)||15.11||R|
|15.||Russell Branyan (14)||15.12||L|
|Mickey Mantle+ (18)||15.12||B|
|17.||Alex Rodriguez (22, 40)||15.18||R|
|18.||Jimmie Foxx+ (20)||15.23||R|
|19.||Mike Schmidt+ (18)||15.24||R|
|20.||Jose Canseco (17)||15.27|
So for a projected $8.1 MIL in earnings David Stearns and the brass opted to designate the man. Instead the franchise took a flier on Eric Thames for a 3 Year Deal worth $15 MIL. This is just slightly under what Carter might have made in Arbitration over the next 2 seasons.
Thames, 30, has a career slash of .250-/.296/.431 in about a seasons worth of AB in his MLB lifetime, before heading to Korea for the last few seasons.
Carter, also turning 30 next month is a career .222/.314/.463 with averaging 35 HRs per full year. The 6 FT 4, 250 LB 1B/DH/OF also has an OPS+ of 112 for his time in the league.
The Brewers are making a bad move in my opinion. Why not sign the guy. let him play half the year in 2017 – and then trade him. Or even just trade him later in the offseason. I am sure that for one year. and club wouldn’t have a massive problem with paying his Arbitration money.
To non-tender the guy, without receiving any potential compensation is foolhardy. Now he has been Designated For Assignment, which means he could still be traded in the next 10 days. but seriously speaking, what team would relinquish any asset at all – and pay the Arbitration money Carter is owed – with the position he is in now. The probable result is he will be released and become free.
Having said all of this. Carter may stand to benefit from being a Free Agent Slugger on the open market. Sure, there is a pile of guys out in Free Agency that are similar batters in, but for clubs seeking cheap alternatives, his power may be a blessing worth seeking out.
If I were the Mariners. Jays, Orioles, Yankees. Royals, Astros, Indians and the Rays could all be squads that should look at the guy.
Baltimore has parlayed one year deals with Nelson Cruz in 2014, and also traded for Mark Trumbo last year. Both would end up leading the American League in HRs tor those years. Chris Carter tied Nolan Arenado for the NL HR title Ironically, Carter finished 2nd in the AL to Cruz in 2014 with 37 HRs.
The Orioles also had a likeness slugger in Mark Reynolds on their roster in 2011 – 2012, whom smashed 60 HRs and held a .787 OPS over two seasons with the club.
Carter will not cost anymore than about 2 YRs an $15 -20 MIL as A Free Agent. so Baltimore could be in play.
The Jays may be able to use Carter’s services too. His HRs incoming could really bolster the loss of an Edwin Encarnacion as well at least in the power department for about 1/3rd of the price. You could also platoon him with Justin Smoak. You could counter act that low Batting Average by bringing in another player on the roster who could compensate for that.
Toronto should also look to bring for a Ben Revere on the Nationals, who has hit .285 for a career Batting Average.
The Rays need a Designated Hitter/1B/OF type, and could stand to benefit with his influx of power, when you have to compete with the O’s, Jays and Red Sox in your Division.
With the Cleveland Indians: He would be a nice adequate replacement for a Mike Napoli. However, if that the money is around the same, the Tribe would likely resign Napoli first.
I doubt Houston will walk down that path again, even though they made a big mistake not maintaining him on the roster in 2016.
An intriguing move and team for him would be with the KC Royals, as he could land a permanent DH role for the departed Kendrys Morales. Carter’s power translates anywhere – including Kauffman Stadium.
This guy is underrated. It is hard to find guys that have his type of power. Yes he strikes out a ton, but he was also durable for the Brew Crew playing a NL Leading 160 contests last year.
It boggles my mind how teams will waste money on average to below average starting Pitchers ($10 MIL per yea) – but when it comes to a guy who can crack 30 – 40 HRs a year. they keep showing him the door.
A .777 OPS guy with his kind of power should be coveted. To think that the Brewers saw this hitter with no value at all is a mistake in my view.
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Posted on November 29, 2016, in Free Agency and tagged adam dunn, alex gordon, alex rofriguez, babe ruth, baltimore orioles, ben revere, chris carter, cleveland indians, dave kingman, david stearns, edwin encarnacion, eric hosmer, giancarlo stanton, hank aaron, Harmon Hillebrew, jim thome, jimmie foxx, juan gonzalez, justin smoak, kednrys morales, kyle seager, manny ramirez, mark mcgwire, mark trumbo, mickey mantle, mike napoli, mike schmidt, milwaukee brewers, nelson cruz, nolan arenado, Nolan Arenado. Patrick Corbin, of Ben Revere, ralph kiner, robinson cano, russell branyan, ryan howard, sammy sosa, seattle mariners, tampa bay rays, ted williams, Tyler Walker, Yulieski Gurriel. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.