Seattle Mariners Showing A Riverboat Gambler Mentality With The Segura Deal: Why Not Covet Chris Carter Next?
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i love the Jean Segura trade for the Martiners. In a deal announced over Thanksgiving, the M’s picked up the 2016 All – Star 2B/SS, along with Mitch Haniger and Zac Curtis for a return of Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker.
The real meat of this trade boils down to Segura vs Walker.
I definitely think the SS position was a sore spot for Seattle down the stretch in 2016 – with Marte slumping after a hot start to begin the campaign.
Yes pitching is at a premium in the market place right now, however Walker, now 24, hasn’t delivered to the hype he came into the MLB with – and Seattle had him pegged as the #3 Starter on the Depth Chart, despite Ariel Miranda outperforming him last season.
Segura led the NL with hits in 2016 (203) – and featured a career best .319/.368/.499 – with an astounding 71 XBH (20 HRs, 7 = 3B and 41 Doubles.) This helped the 26 Year Old tally 102 Runs Scored, while swiping 33 Bases.
Even though projecting a repeat performance out of Segura in 2017 may be a huge stretch, this man posted an incredible overall year and it may be one of the most underrated campaigns for an offensive player in the Majors this past campaign.
I think it is realistic for the man to follow more of what his 3 Career Slash is with a clip of .280/,319./.397 – with the thought that many he could rise his OBP to a higher mark in order to be a viable option for a Leadoff man.
If Segura produces within 85% of what he did in 2016 than this is a massively good deal for the Mariners in addressing their biggest need for a position player and Leadoff guy.
Having secured Segura at SS also may mean that Seattle doesn’t have to break the bank at the First Base Position when you consider that Kyle Seager clubbed 30 HRs in 2016, and Robinson Cano added another 39 bombs.
That is 99 HRs between the 3 spots last year.
I would go as far to say that the Mariners have the best offense in the AL West with the rosters currently constructed – and their entire Starting Staff still looks in better shape to the Astros or Rangers (pending the offseason still).
With this transaction, I may even say that the Mariners should be the favorites in the Division as of right now.
Houston has Starting Pitcher and Reliever issues. While they have the best SS/2B tandem in the league with Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa, George Springer has not maximized his full potential, and the lineup was fairly poor once you reached the 2nd half of the lineup last year.
The Mariners must continue to realize their window for this roster is 1 – 2 years. Felix Hernandez is 30, yet he has logged a pile of career Innings (2415.2) – and maybe only has a few years left of being a premiere Chucker.
Iwakuma is 35, and while he has bolstered great numbers as a Pitcher for the M’s, he is only under contract for 2 more seasons.
Nelson Cruz is coming off of 3 straight seasons of 40+ HRs, but he will also turn 36 during the 2017 season.
Seth Smith is in the last year of his contract – and has provided Seattle with professional AB – with a line of .248/.336./.429 – with 28 HRs and 105 RBI in 773 AB.
I still think the Mariners should re-sign Franklin Gutierrez back to a one 1-2 year deal in order to platoon in the OF whenever there is A LHP thrown.
Over his last 623 AB, Gutierrez has clubbed 39 HRs and 98 RBI – including an .884 OPS versus Southpaws during this last year.
Since the club already traded for Danny Valencia (.924 OPS vs LHP, and Nelson Cruz (with a 1.020 OPS vs LHP), this team could truly dominate versus Lefties in the coming season if they can find a few million to sign Gutierrez.
Valencia could even pick up some ABs at 3B if the Mariners could spot Seager the odd day off versus a hard throwing LHP.
At Catcher, which was an abysmal part of their previous years heading into 2016, Mike Zunino finally showed some flashes of production in 2016 – posting a ,787 OPS – with 12 HRs and 31 RBi.
This was much needed after he spent the majority of the season in the Minor Leagues. The club also added Veteran Backstopper Carlos Ruiz ( who still hit for .792 OPS against LHP). A nice platoon of these 2 men could be worked out with Zunino being the 1 guy.
Ideally the club should re-sign Gutierrez and have him patrol LF/Martin to be in CF – and the combination of Smith/Cruz to DH/play RF.
The offense continuously improves each season.
Seattle is looking at about a $145 Million Dollar Payroll if they were to keep the same team – and then add Gutierrez back.
If I were them, I would look into acquiring Chris Carter from the Milwaukee Brewers. He has two years left of Arbitration – and clubbed a NL Leading 41 HRs last season.
The salary range to pay Carter over the next 2 seasons would likely be $22M – $26M.
The team could withstand a lower average from him considering the rest of the guys in their lineup that they already possess
Seattle could send back a package that includes 1B Dan Vogelbach. Carter is also perfect because he could also DH and play LF.
That kind of versatility could be used. It boggled my mind how the Astros non-tendered him last season and suffered at 1B all year for it. Carter has smacked 131 bombs over the last 4 years.
The X factor of the whole team could very well be James Paxton. This Canadian Southpaw needs to steps his game up, assume a top 3 Pitching Spot. He is still young enough, and definitely has the velocity.
At 28 years old, Paxton could really make the decision to trade Walker instead of him look beneficial to the franchise – should he finally live up to his potential.
Paxton is 18- 15, with a nice 3.43 ERA and 1.276 WHIP spanning 50 Career Game Starts.
The Bullpen looks solid with young Closer Edwin Diaz being one of the best young Late inning Relief arms in the game, while also featuring veterans Nate Vincent and Steve Cishek as more than capable setup man. Seattle has fared decently with finding Relievers on the cheap.
Seattle is holding the longest playoff drought in the Majors having not qualified for the postseason since their record 116 win season in 2001 (Ichiro Suzuki‘s 1st year year in the Majors..)
I also think the Rangers are taking a step back this year. Houston will be tough, however I would take the entire depth of the offense that Seattle has right now, and the top 2 starters the Marines hold as opposed to the Astros.
I also contend that Cano/Cfuz and Seager is the best 3-4-5 lineup in baseball now.
Martin should hit 9th in the order so you can have him hit in front of Segura. Both men could run rampant around the bases for the heart of the order.
The Diamondbacks traded 2 years of service in Segura, for 4 years of Team Control in Walker. The 24 Year old SP has showed some improvements in 2016 – but he is still has had issues with his delivery and health.
There is no doubt that his ceiling could end up making this a great trade for Arizona, but this was a deal the Mariners could afford to try out with their talent level at at Starting Pitching.
They also have a roster that crushes either Right Handed or Left Handed Pitchers based on the pitcher they are facing and splits.
Seattle should keep pushing their chips forward towards the 2017 and 2018 seasons before trying to scale down salaries for the last half of the Cano era.
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Posted on November 26, 2016, in MLB Trades and tagged AL West, arizona diamondbacks, chris carter, dan vogelbach, danny valencia, Edwin Diaz, felix hernandez, Frankoin Gutierrez, george springer, Gil Heredia, houston astros, ichiro suzuki, james paxton, jean segura, jerry dipoto, jose altuve, Ketel Marte, leonys martin, mike zunino, milwaukee brewers, Mitch Haniger, nate karns, Nate Vincent, nelson cruz, Richie Shaffer, robinson cano, seattle mariners, Seattle Mariners payroll in 2017, steve cishek, taijuan walker, Tayor motter, texas rangers. Bookmark the permalink. 4 Comments.