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Betting The Underdog In The Playoffs Has Proven Wisely The Last 3 Years

2016postseason

So it started with a late rally with the 2014 AL Wild Card Game, and ever since that result, only 3 series have been won by the favorite, and now 2 more underdogs have taken 2 – 0 leads in this years postseason.

If you were a betting man and took all of the longshots, you would have made a fortune as all the 9 rounds were lost by the favorite.

2014 AL Wild card

Oakland was favored over KC and stormed out to  7 – 3 lead before imploding with a Royals running attack that feasted on Jon Lester and then the A’s Bullpen.

2014 ALDS Round

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were wiped out by Kansas City in the next round. as were the Tigers by the Orioles

2014 ALCS

Baltimore was actually favored to win the pennant, but the Royals took em out in a sweep.

favored to win the 2014 and 2015 Wild Card games at home, and were the favorites, only to be blanked in both affairs by the Giants and Cubs respectively.

Favored to win the 2014 and 2015 Wild Card games at home, and were the favorites, only to be blanked in both affairs by the Giants and Cubs respectively.

2014 NL Wild Card

Since the game was hosted in Pittsburgh, the Bucs were favored, but were shellacked by Madison Bumgarner and the Giants,

2014 NLDS

The Nats were heavy favorites over San Fran, but despite Bryce Harper‘s heroics, were knocked out.

The Dodgers could yet again take out the Zombie Cardinals, even though they were the much better team.

2014 NLCS

San Francisco took out the Cardinals in yet another postseason to make it to their 3rd World Series in 5 years, and were the underdog.

2014 World Series

The Oddsmakers actually slightly ranked KC over SF (-120, to +100).  In a hard fought battle, Madison Bumgarner was a one man wrecking crew.  The Giants prevailed for their 3 World Series triumph in as many chances, during a 7 game series.

2015 AL Wild Card

The Astros were weirdly the underdog here, even with having Dallas Keuchel as the Cy Young Winner in the year versus Masahiro Tanaka.

2015 NL Wild Card

Again, with home field advantage and a 98 win team, the Pirates could not shake the Jake Arrieta pitching streak, and they were sent home for a second straight season in the one game winner take all as the favorite.

2015 ALDS

The Jays were favored to knock out the Rangers – and did deliver – however it took a 0 – 2 series rally to do it, and the big Jose Bautista “bat flip heard around the world.

The Royals also won their series as the favorite, but like Toronto – were definitely on the brink of elimination in doing so first to the Houston Astros.

2015 NLDS

The Mets were underdogs to the Dodgers but took them out in a convincing Game #5 in the NLDS round.

Chicago finally knocked out St. Louis and their 100 win squad.

2015 ALCS

I liked this one.  Toronto was heavily favored to win the AL Pennant.  KC jumped out to a 1 – 0 series lead and still were the underdog.  I told everyone here to take that bet and hammer it hard.  The Royals would go on to defeat the Canadian club.

Chicago was actually favored to wipe out the Mets, and this was baffling to me with how New York’s pitching looked.  The Mets rode Daniel Murphy‘s power to pummel the Cubs for their 1st NL pennant since 2000.

2015 World Series

Again the oddsmakers were down on KC.  I urged everyone to bet on the Royals because of experience.

With KC winning it made the underdogs record at 7 – 2 for the 2015 postseason – after the 2014 year they were 9 – 0.

2016

The Wild Card games were won by the Giants and Jays, however San Fran was even money against the Mets for the one game, and is not counted.  The Jays were favored over the Orioles and delivered,

Toronto and Cleveland were both +140 longshots to win the LDS round in the American League this – and so far they both hold 2 – 0 leads.

The National League favorites both held serve on Friday in Game #1 of their rounds.  The Cubs were the heaviest favorites heading into this round in any league at -275, and with a win yesterday, have bumped that to -500.

Los Angeles staved off a late Nats rally to win 4 – 0  in Game #1 of their series yesterday.

So the American League clubs could see a 2 – 0 round for the underdogs, while the Senior Circuit could see the clubs win that were supposed to.

Baseball is a game where momentum can switch at any time in the playoffs, so for this I offer you a bet idea.  Take all the underdogs in the series right now and bet them….Yes that is right.

Red Sox at +400 (they still have a shot with 2 straight games at Fenway Park), and still have a potent offense.  Cleveland is a much better team at Progressive Field with a .827 OPS at home – as opposed to a .691 OPS on the road.

Rangers at +800 (while I don’t believe they will win the series, the Jays were in the same boat last year versus the Texas Rangers and won 3 straight.  Colby Lewis is not afraid of the playoffs, and Adrian Beltre and Carlos Beltran are proven playoff warriors).

Nationals at +320 (People don’t realize just how good of a pitcher that Tanner Roark is at Nationals Park – with a career ERA of 2.79 there, If they can tie the series up, they can still throw Gio Gonzalez vs the Dodgers in Game #3 – where LA is awful vs LHP).  It is worth a stab.

Giants at +375 (I am not sold that Kyle Hendricks is going to miss a ton of bats here.  Yes he is awesome at Wrigley Field.  If the Giants win Game #2, I believe they will win the series.  I am going out on a limb here. but I think they win Game #3 with Mad Bum, and if they get to a 5th game, count on a Johnny Cueto and Bumgarner (on short rest) tandem grabbing every out to close the deal in a decisive game 5).  You better win tonight Chicago.  Then I believe they win it in 4 games.

Out of these 4 clubs that are down, who would you throw some cash on for a series comeback?  Odds are one of them will do it. 

With a 17 – 3 record of the underdogs winning the series over the last 20 games, this is an incredible feat.  Even if this wager idea doesn’t work this round, consider it in the LCS round and World Series. 

Odds courtesy of bet365.com

Toronto has both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista hitting Free Agency and this winter season, so it is incumbent on the club to cash in on this golden opportunity. I believe they would be big favorites vs the Tribe if they both make it to the ALCS, and they would be slight underdogs if they faced the Red Sox. Yes Toronto still has to make it there.

Toronto has both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista hitting Free Agency and this winter season, so it is incumbent on the club to cash in on this golden opportunity. I believe they would be big favorites vs the Tribe if they both make it to the ALCS, and they would be slight underdogs if they faced the Red Sox. Yes Toronto still has to make it there.

 

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About hunterstokes21

I Played NCAA Baseball at Liberty University in the 90's with Sid Bream's kid Sheldon. Once Hit a Home Run by hitting a hot air balloon that was coming over 2nd base (It was agreed that if a balloon was hit before game by the umpires and coaches - even though they were setting up in LF/CF Bleachers). I believe in the "Church Of Baseball". Come in for worship anytime.

Posted on October 8, 2016, in gambling 101. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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