Monday July 30th, 2012

Peter Stein:  2012 truly has been the year of the rookie.

With all of this new talent and many surprises, it most likely means that there is a lot of parity amongst fantasy leagues. This is great. But the question you must ask moving forward: which players can actually sustain this level of play? Remember that last year, the entire buzz was around Eric Hosmer, whose sophomore campaign (.232/9/42) indicates that he might actually need some time in AAA.  Don’t forget about Jason Heyward’s disappointing encore after his breakout rookie campaign too. And didn’t we all write of Anthony Rizzo after he was completely over matched by major league pitching in 2011?

Amazingly, Yoenis Cespedes has produced a stat line of .305/14/54 and 8 SB through 69 games played and has no shot of winning rookie of the year. That honor will belong to Mike Trout – .350/16/49 and 31 SB in 79 total games. A plethora of other rookies are mashing too, including Rizzo (.941 OPS), Todd Frazier (.857 OPS), Will Middlebrooks (.848 OPS), and Matt Carpenter (.836 OPS). Not included in this list is Bryce Harper, who is already a dynamic fantasy option at the age of nineteen.

On the pitching front, the same holds true. A core of rookies is the reason that the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics are in the playoff hunt. Closers Addison Reed and Ryan Cook are great plays down the stretch, as both produce a 9+ K/9 ratio and are a great source of saves. While Jose Quintana (2.58 ERA/4.04 XFIP) has been invaluable to the White Sox staff, it is the Athletics duo of Jarrod Parker (3.38 ERA) and Tommy Milone (3.51 ERA) who are the more viable fantasy options. It helps to pitch in Oakland!

Other rookie standouts across the major leagues include Wade Miley (11-6 with a 3.11 ERA), Michael Fiers (1.77 ERA and 67 K in 66 IP), and Zach McAllister (3.18 ERA), as well as the more experienced rookies Yu Darvish and Wei-Yin Chen, but surprisingly the top prospects coming into the season (Matt Moore, Drew Pomeranz, and Julio Teheran) have yet to achieve the level of success that scouts predicted. However, do note that Moore, with the most potential of all, with a 13:2 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 14 innings pitched, could be destined for a strong finish down the stretch.

Obviously, there is no clear-cut formula to determine who is most legit, but there are many indicators to help us predict future success. For pitchers, examine specifically K:B ratio, XFIP, BABIP, and ballpark.

Although a White Sox fan, I for one do not think Jose Quintana can sustain this level of success. As mentioned, his XFIP of 4.04 is well above his current 2.58 ERA. A BABIP of .260 is on the low side, so we can expect more balls to find holes or fall for base hits. Now, the K:B ratio of 3.15 is actually very strong and encouraging. However, he is only striking out 5.17 batter per nine innings, well below the league average.  It will also be difficult for Quintana to continue to be this stingy with the free passes, unless his command has truly improved this much for the minors. The last check I mention, the ballpark, U.S. Cellular Field, is a very hitter friendly park. Therefore, while Quintana can definitely be serviceable and used on matchups, he is not an ace in the making.

At first glance, Tommy Milone’s underwhelming K/9 rate of 6.52 does not seem to bode well for his future success. However, he has great control (exhibited in the minors) with a 1.82 BB/9 rate. Furthermore, he was a strikeout pitcher in the minors and the k’s have been coming in bunches as of late – 34 in his last 32 innings. With a respectable XFIP of 3.93 and throwing in the pitching friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum, Milone is very high on my list moving forward.

Michael Fiers is wow-ing in Milwaukee with his 1.77 ERA and 67K’s in 66 IP. The strikeout rate shows us that he is legit, and is right on par with his minor league level, indicating that it is sustainable. An 83.6% LOB rate and a tiny 2.6 HR/FB rate indicate that regression is due, but if he produces near his current XFIP (3.51), he has a lot of value.

With Matt Moore, it is all about control, as his 8.47 K/9 rate is impressive, but the 4.31 BB/9 tough to deal with. In 2011 he had the walks down to 2.46 per nine in AA, he struggled in A in 2009 with 5.12 BB/9. Therefore, this is something I think he will work through and could be a great buy low candidate in 2013 if he doesn’t dazzle down the stretch of 2012.

Predicting the future success of hitters seems to be a little more difficult, as pitchers constantly adjust throughout the season as more tape becomes available. For example, American League pitchers found it fairly simple to retire Cespedes by throwing off speed stuff. However, he has since responded by making the necessary adjustments and has proved to be an all-around and complete hitter. But for hitters, I like to look at BABIP, the strikeout and walk rates, as well as the ballpark in which the player plays half of their games.

Why is Anthony Rizzo having success in 2012 (.333/7/17 in 111 at bats) after a miserable 2011 debut (.141/1/9 in 153 at bats)? During his 2011 his strikeout rate was a whopping 30.1% to accompany a .210 BABIP, meaning that the 70% of the time he actually managed to put the ball in play, only 20% of the time he produced a hit. In 2012, he I a much more disciplined and patient hitter, striking out only 10.8% of the time! Putting better swings on the ball, and out of PETCO field to a hitter friendly Wrigley Field, he is sporting a .326 BAPIP. This may be hard to sustain as a fly ball hitter, but he has the formula to produce .280/30/100 in a full season. A star in the making.  If anything, guys like Rizzo benefit from initially struggling, compared to a Hosmer, as he was able to focus on specific areas of his game and eliminate his most glaring weaknesses.

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein)***

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