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David Ortiz to the Jays or Yankees? Try the Rays or Angels
Monday October 17, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the World Series all set to commence on Wednesday (Cardinals and Rangers)- our attention is slowly shifting to the upcoming free agency period. A big name (literally) of discussion has been David Ortiz, or better known in baseball circles as “Big Papi”. The rumor mill is running wild as to where Ortiz will play in 2012. Let’s shed some light on the subject and clear up the confusion.
The soon to be 36-year old Ortiz is coming off one of his finest seasons in recent memory. Papi finished with a steady all-around season: 29 home runs, 96 RBIs, 84 runs, 78/83 BB/K, .309 AVG and .953 OPS. Ortiz was named to his 7th all-star team and finishing up a 5-year, $64.5 million contract. For a player that appeared to be in decline back in 2009, Ortiz has shown the last two seasons that he has some juice left in the tank. But with the Red Sox in shambles, given the departure of long-time manager Terry Francona and soon to be ex-GM Theo Epstein, Ortiz himself has said that Boston has become too much of a soap opera. The question on every baseball fan’s mind: will he stay or will he go?
The Ortiz decision to stay in Boston will largely depend on several factors. Firstly, it is unclear whether the team wishes to retain him or go in a different direction. As an aging team with hitters that could use the rest from playing in the field every day, the Red Sox may not longer wish to commit the DH spot to one exclusive batter. Taking that into account with Papi’s streaks and slumps that past few years and recent comments, may be enough for the Red Sox upper management to wish to move on. But if the team does wish to retain him, or give in to fan pressure to keep Ortiz (which is likely to come given his immense popularity), will Papi himself want to remain in Boston? Only the man could answer that question. To know the answer, one would have to get into the player’s head. Does Otiz get along with his teammates or are there divided fractions? How much did the 2011 collapse take a toll on his morale? When will a new GM come into place and will he be able to have a good relationship with Ortiz? Same issue for a new manager…and you get the idea. There are many variables that put into question whether Ortiz could or would stay in Boston.
In my estimation, Ortiz is on his final contract. He will likely obtain a 2-year contract, with an option for a third. Based on his rich history and legacy in Boston, I think that when push comes to shove- the player will stay. Boston needs Papi; and Papi needs Boston. It would not feel right to see Ortiz in another uniform (check out highlights from his days in Minnesota and you will see what I mean). Major League Baseball also would love to see Ortiz remain in Boston for marketing purposes. With so many vested interests in getting this deal done, I believe it will happen. But what if it does not? What if Papi jumps ship? I see his options as far and few between.
The first option that jumped out was the Yankees. It will not happen. While the Yankees would love to stick it to Boston, they will not likely want another aging DH on their hands after the Jorge Posada fiasco this past season. The Yankees also have Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and company that need days off the field, A-Rod especially given his failing health. With A-Rod becoming a part-time DH as soon as next year, the Yankees cannot afford to take on Papi at this stage. Plus the team has up-and-coming superstar Jesus Montero that needs playing time and has nothing more to prove in AAA. So the Yankees rate as a no.
The next options for Ortiz? It will only be American League teams as he is only a DH at this stage of his career. The only realistic teams that have the open position and fit are Toronto, Tampa Bay and Anaheim. The Jays are being thrown around many circles as a possible destination. It makes sense for several reasons. Ortiz knows the ballpark well from his AL East days. He gets along well with Jose Bautista and would serve as a great mentor for the Jays young hitters. Toronto was missing production last season from the DH spot and would welcome Papi’s bat. But despite these factors, I don’t see this signing happening. Ortiz will want to play on a contender and fight for another ring. His career is winding down and so are his chances. While Toronto has a strong young nucleus, they are at least 2-3 years aways. As much as this would be a feel-good signing, I would rate is as another no.
Thus the battle for the services of David Ortiz will boil down to the Tampa Bay Rays and Anaheim Angels. Two strong playoff contending teams that desperately need his bat. Tampa Bay should be the favorite, given the familiarity of the AL East and the strong need of the team. The Rays have the lineup spot for Ortiz and should make a big push for him. The Angels have the same need, but not the best fit for position. The team has a logjam in the outfield with Mike Trout likely to be with the big club next year and Kendrys Morales returning to the team from injury. But when there is a will, there is a way. Like many other squads, the Angels would need to do some creative shuffling to make room for Ortiz. Vernon Wells may need to be moved for a bad pitcher’s contract in return (Carlos Zambrano anyone?) Kendrys Morales may not be recovered or Trout may not be ready. The Angels went through a desperate need all year in 2011 for runs and will not want to face the same issue come 2012. Papi could be the perfect short-term solution for the Halos.
The four-horse race to sign David Ortiz will come down to the Red Sox, Jays, Rays and Angels. The Rays are my dark horse favorite and best overall fit. The Jays would love to take him on, it will just depend on the confidence Papi has in the team’s ability to compete. Boston will hang in right till the end and the Angels will need to be aggressive to get him. If we are playing the odds, I would rate Boston as a 70% favorite, followed by Tampa Bay at 20% and the Jays/Angels at 5% each. Once the World Series ends, let the David Ortiz sweepstakes begin!
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
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Tony La Russa Manages the Cards to One Win Away From the World Series
Saturday October 15, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: Only one game on the schedule last night- but it was a big one. The Brewers and Cardinals headed into game five in St. Louis, deadlocked at 2-2. With the series set to shift to Milwaukee, this was a big game to take the lead in the NLCS. With two strong pitchers on the mound, this game could have been a pitching duel. It was far from it and the resulting game surprised many. Here is a recap of last night’s NLCS action:
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: NLCS Game Five
From the title of this article, many readers will take it that the Cardinals won last night. Indeed they did, a strong 7-1 victory over the Brewers to take a 3-2 NLCS series lead. This game came down to key factors in my estimation: the in-game managing by Tony La Russa and the sloppy play of the Brewers. When referring to La Russa, the talk of last night was the call to the bullpen in the 5th inning. With the Cardinals up 4-1, the Brewers were threatening with 2 on and 2 out. Ryan Braun headed to the plate and La Russa ran to the mound. Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia was stellar up to that point, with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 hits, 0 BB and 5 strikeouts. But as noted by last night’s television commentators, Garcia was starting to get into trouble. With one Brewers run already in and the hits starting to pile up, La Russa appeared to be nervous that his starter was losing it. Few managers would take out his starter at that point, but then few managers are Tony La Russa. With his bullpen on fire in this postseason, La Russa was not going to take any chances. Octavio Dotel got the call and proceeded to strike out Ryan Braun to end the threat. From there, Lance Lynn, Marc Rzepczynski and Jason Motte came on to shut out the Brewers on 2 hits and 1 walk. Motte finished up the game for the save with Dotel taking the win.
But that is not the end of the story. Far from it. As much as this game is about the wizardry of La Russa managing his pitching staff (along with trusty pitching coach Dave Duncan at his side), game five was also about the Brewers throwing it away. Literally. To me, Milwaukee was a team intent on giving the game away. Four errors on the night is completely unacceptable, especially for a game of this magnitude. It is not like the team was not hitting, as the Brewers had 9 hits compared to the Cardinals 10. Interestingly enough the Cardinals had 20 LOB, compared to the Brewers 14. But the Cardinals drove runners in when in it counted. Here is my logic in a game that came down to inches. Zack Greinke gave up 5 runs, although only 2 of them were earned. Marco Estrada in the 8th was a complete train-wreck, giving up 2 runs on 1 hit an 2 walks. Estrada completely was not finding the zone and was lucky to escape with only the 2 runs allowed. Take out the Estrada inning and Greinke’s 3 unearned runs, and you are now left with a 2-1 Cardinals lead. Thus the Cardinals victory relied on La Russa’s management, strong bullpen and Brewers lack of execution and poor play. A game of inches.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Tigers Stay Alive and NLCS Tied Up: Recap of MLB Playoffs and Notes
Friday October 14, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: The Rangers had a chance on Thursday to advance to the World Series. The Cardinals were up 2-1 in the NLCS and looking to take a commanding lead. How did they do? Let’s recap Thursday’s MLB playoffs:
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers: ALCS Game Five
The battle of the aces. C.J. Wilson and Justin Verlander. This game turned into a high scoring affair rather than a pitching classic. The Tigers pulled out a 7-5 victory to stay alive in the series. Verlander took the win, with 7 1/3 IP, 4 runs allowed, 8 hits, 3 walks and 8 strikeouts. The lone home run given up Verlander was in the 5th inning to none other than… Nelson Cruz. The Rangers slugger hit his 5th home run of the series, a 2-run effort. Phil Coke came in for the rare save, pitching 1 2/3 innings, allowing 1 run. C.J. Wilson took the loss for the Rangers. In 6.0 IP, Wilson allowed a staggering 6 runs, 8 hits, 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. The long ball did Wilson in, as he allowed 3 of them to the Tigers in their home park. Alex Avila hit a solo blast in the 3rd, while Delmon Young had a pair on the day (a solo home run in the 4th and 2-run blast in the 6th). For good measure, Koji Uehara came on in the 7th to give up a solo home run to Ryan Raburn.
The crooked number came for the Tigers in the 6th. Miguel Cabrera hit a ground ball off the third base bag that could have led to a double play, but rather went for a double. Detroit kept the momentum from there and scored four runs in the inning. Detroit actually had a 7-2 lead going into the 8th, but the Rangers were able to chip away and stay within striking distance. Texas now leads the series 3-2 going into game 6 on Saturday. The game will be played at 8:05 PM ET, with Max Scherzer and Derek Holland set to faceoff. The Rangers continue to be one game away from that magical trip back to the World Series.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: NLCS Game Four
The Cardinals held a 2-1 lead in the series with game four to be played at home. Kyle Lohse was on the hill for the home team, Randy Wolf for the Brewers. Turns out that Wolf was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Brewers. The starter pitched a solid 7.0 IP to take the win, giving up only 2 runs on 6 hits, 1 walk and 6 strikeouts. The only runs allowed by Wolf were on solo home runs, to Matt Holliday in the 2nd and Allen Craig in the 3rd. Francisco Rodriguez got the hold in the 8th and closer John Axford with the save in the 9th. Kyle Lohse could not make it out of the 5th, pitching 4 1/3 IP for the loss. Lohse gave up 3 runs on 6 hits, no walks and struck out 3. Mitchell Boggs, Arthur Rhodes, Octavio Dotel and Fernando Salas also pitched in this one. The Brewers recipe for success in this one was simple. Great pitching and grinding out runs at the plate. One could say that the Brewers beat Tony La Russa at his own game. The Brewers did not hit a long ball in this one, but will certainly take out the well-earned victory. With the series tied up 2-2, game five goes tonight at 8:05 PM ET in St. Louis. A great matchup on the mound, as Jamie Garcia and Zack Greinke faceoff.
MLB Notes:
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With the Theo Epstein soap opera about to conclude, the focus shifts to Baltimore and Boston for their vacant General Manager positions. Boston is looking internally to fill the role, while Baltimore is considering everyone and anyone to lead their team. This is a crucial stage for both teams’ development. Boston needs to maintain its status as a top flight MLB organization, while Baltimore is on the verge of breaking through (with a great deal of talent in their farm system).
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The sale of the Houston Astros to Crane will apparently be going through. The sale will lead to the Astros moving to the American League, playing in the West division. I will be writing about this subject very soon on the Reports. But at this point I will say that the move is a win-win for the Astros and its fans. The team needs stability and renewed excitement. A move to the AL West should provide just that and more.
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Another day, another rumor. With the Red Sox in apparent turmoil, Big Papi has come out and indicated that he may not return to Boston. That is his decision and I respect that. But will Boston be asking him back…and at what price? If Papi does leave, look for the Jays, Rays and Yankees to all hold discussions with the big man. The Angels may also be a consideration. But my money is on a return to Beantown.
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The expansion of the MLB playoffs will happen. It is just a question of when. The latest reports have Major League Baseball adding one more wild card team to each league and a sudden death, one game playoff, to be played by the wild card teams. I do not know yet how I feel about having just a one gamer to decide the wild card winner. But I am definitely in favour of expanding the amount of teams. Personally, I like the idea of each top team getting a full bye into the championship series. But this may be too revolutionary for baseball. The expanded MLB playoffs is likely coming as early as the 2013 season.
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The World Baseball Classic is coming in the spring of 2013. The qualifying tournament will be played sometime in the fall of 2012. I am a big fan of this tournament and see it as a big step for baseball expansion throughout the world. More details will likely not be available until next year, but I will continue to update everyone as information becomes available.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
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ALCS Game 4 and NLCS Game 3: MLB Playoffs Recap for Wednesday October 12th
Thursday October 13, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen (Lead Baseball Columnist – MLB reports): Going into today, the Rangers held a 2-1 series lead while the Cards and Brewers were tied up at 1-1. Could the Tigers square up their series? Who would pull away between Milwaukee and St. Louis? Let’s get to it by recapping Wednesday’s action:
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers: ALCS Game Four
Rick Porcello and Matt Harrison faced off in the battle of number four starters. Both pitchers did a fairly good job on the night. Porcello pitched 6 2/3 innings, giving up 3 runs (2 earned), 8 hits, 0 walks and struck out six. Harrison on the other side lasted five innings, giving up 2 runs, three hits, three walks and striking out three. Both starters left with a no decision. The scoring in this one started in the first, courtesy of a Miguel Cabrera 2-run double. Other than a Brandon Inge solo home run in the 7th inning (off reliever Alexi Ogando), the Rangers pitching staff did not concede another Tigers’ run. Texas actually trailed in this one 2-0 until the 6th, when they were able to put up 3 runs on the board. From there it was the battle of the pens, as both teams sent out plenty of relievers in this one. The Rangers used Alexi Ogando, Mike Adams, Darren Oliver, Scott Feldman and Neftali Feliz. The Rangers countered with Al Alburquerque, Joaquin Benoit, Jose Valverde and Phil Coke.
Tied up 3-3 going into the 11th, the Tigers trotting out their closer Jose Valverde who had already worked the 10th. The decision proved to be fatal. With one out and two on, Valverde faced Nelson Cruz– Texas Rangers postseason hero. Cruz proceeded to knock in a three run home run, his fourth home run of the playoffs. The Rangers went on to score four runs in the inning and take the game, final score 7-3. Feldman with the win, Valverde takes the loss. The Rangers hold a commanding 3-1 series going into tomorrow afternoon in Texas. The game is scheduled for 4:19 PM EST, with aces C.J. Wilson and Justin Verlander set to face-off. With one more win, the Rangers are off to the World Series, their second consecutive appearance in the finals.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: NLCS Game Three
St. Louis was the site for the battle of the aces. Chris Carpenter for the Cardinals, Yovani Gallardo for the Brewers. Neither pitcher was particularly on this night, but did what they had to do to keep their teams in this one. Gallardo gave up all four runs in the 1st inning, but combined with the Brewers pen for seven shutout innings the rest of the way. Gallardo pitched 5 innings, giving up 8 hits, 5 walks and striking out 2. Carpenter only lasted 5 innings as well, giving up 3 runs, 6 hits, 3 walks and striking out 3. The pens for both teams went into lockdown mode. The Brewers relievers, LaTroy Hawkins, Takashi Saito and Chris Narveson combined to give up 1 hit and 1 walk over 3 innings, while striking out 3. The Cardinals pen was even better though on this night. Fernando Salas, Lance Lynn, Marc Rzepczynski and Jason Motte gave up no hits or walks over 4 innings pitched. Motte struck out 3 batter in 1 1/3 innings pitched for the save. Carpenter ended up with the win, while Gallardo took the loss. Albert Pujols was once again the star for the Cardinals, going 2 for 2 with 2 walks, 1 run and 1 RBI. The Cardinals take a 2-1, going into game 4 tomorrow night in St. Louis. Game time is 8:05 PM ET, Randy Wolf vs. Kyle Lohse. The battle of the number 4’s will determine if St. Louis can take a stranglehold on the series, or the Brewers can even things up going back to Milwaukee.
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2011 MLB Playoffs: Recap for Sunday October 9th and MLB Notes
Monday October 10, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern – MLB reports): There turned out to only be one game on Sunday, nonetheless it was still an exciting, and important game. Let’s get to the Recaps!
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers: ALCS Game Two
Major League Baseball actually called this game at 2:00 PM CT, more than four hours before the game even started. MLB was obviously trying to the pitchers from a situation similar to Saturday night. While MLB probably had good intentions, this was a very bad decision. According to multiple weather reports, it never rained on Sunday at the Ballpark in Arlington. If the decision makers had just waited a couple more hours we probably would have a game between these two teams on Sunday. Now, because of MLB jumping the gun, these teams have to play four straight days of baseball. As a result, Max Scherzer will take the mound for the Tigers this afternoon against Derek Holland for the Rangers. Game time is 4:19 PM ET, assuming the skies stay clear in Arlington.
St.Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: NLCS Game One
With all the trash talking leading up to this game, this proved to be a pivotal game for both teams. Neither pitcher was very sharp, but both offenses showed up ready to battle. In the top of the first, Matt Holliday had an RBI single off Brewers starter Zack Greinke to give up the Cardinals an early lead. In the bottom of the first, the Brewers erased the Cardinals’ lead by scoring two runs, courtesy of Ryan Braun‘s 444 foot home run. Both pitchers battled throughout the second and third innings, until in the fourth when David Freese hit a 3-run home run to give the Cards’ a 4-2 lead. Freese is having a tremendous postseason, coming tough in the clutch for St.Louis. In the top of the fifth, Lance Berkman drove in Rafael Furcal to make it 5-2. In the bottom of the fifth, everything went wrong for Jaime Garcia. The inning started off with a Corey Hart single, then a Jerry Hairston double. Next, Ryan Braun jumped on the first pitch and hit a ground rule double to right field. From there, Prince Fielder crushed Garcia’s first pitch, an 87 MPH fastball, to right center field. ESPN’s Home Run Tracker had that bomb traveling at 119.2 MPH. This would make it the hardest hit homer of the season. A lot is going to be made about the Brewers celebrations after every home run they hit, but I really don’t have a problem with it. If the Cardinals don’t like it, then maybe they just shouldn’t give up home runs!
Garcia’s main problem with this huge inning was that he stopped throwing his breaking ball. Out of the 12 pitches he threw, not one was offspeed. Things got worse for the Redbirds when Octavio Dotel came into the game, and gave up a 2-run home run to Yuniesky Betancourt, of all people. The Cardinals scored once more in the 7th when Albert Pujols grounded into a double play, but the big 6th inning was enough for the Brewers. Final score: Brewers 9 Cardinals 6, with Greinke getting the win, Garcia the loss, and John Axford nailing down the save. These two teams will face off for game two tonight, Monday, at 8:05 PM ET. Edwin Jackson will get the start for St.Louis, against Shaun Marcum for Milwaukee.
Editor’s Notes:
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All the talk surrounding Zack Greinke’s comments turned out to be just that, talk. Once the teams took the field yesterday afternoon, the focus centered on the game itself. After getting hit fairly hard yesterday, I do not expect we will hear many more harsh words from Greinke during this series.
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The Tigers are looking very susceptible offensively, especially after the loss of Magglio Ordonez to a broken ankle and Delmon Young to an oblique strain. The Rangers have caught fire at the right time and should be making a second straight trip to the World Series.
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The free agency talk won’t talk, even though we are still in playoff mode. Possible destinations for C.J. Wilson and Prince Fielder have been speculated on for the past few days, as strong or stronger than they have all season. The reality is the focus should be on the games ahead. There will be plenty of time to have these discussions between the end of the playoffs and New Years.
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A story has come out indicating that the Reds are going to star taking offers for their star first baseman, Joey Votto. Expect 29 other teams to submit their bids if this is true.
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Epstein-gate continues to swirl, as the Cubs and supposedly Angels are interested in his services. My advice if Theo was sitting in front of me? Stay put. You are considered a genius in Boston. Move elsewhere and you run the risk of failing to replicate your magic. If that occurs, your lustre will get tarnished. Same advice to Billy Beane. Stay home and keep your legacy. The grass is always greener on the other side.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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Preview of MLB Playoffs for Sunday October 9th and Rangers Take Game 1 ALCS
Sunday October 9, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen (Lead Baseball Columnist – MLB reports): And then they were down to four. On the road to the World Series, Milwaukee and St. Louis are set to do battle for the National League- while over in the AL, Detroit and Texas have already started their series. Is there anything better than the MLB Playoffs? Didn’t think so. Let’s get to it by recapping last night’s action:
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers: ALCS Game One
The Detroit Tigers are becoming linked with “rain” in the 2011 MLB playoffs. Game one of their ALDS matchup in New York was suspended and played a day later. So of course, Murphy’s law dictated that the opening game of their ALCS would see rain as well. But despite nearly a two-hour rain delay (2 total rain delays in the 5th), the Rangers and Tigers were able to get this one in. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they again ended up losing their opener to fall behind 1-0 in the series to the Rangers. Neither starter was particularly effective in this one. Justin Verlander gave up 3 runs over 4 IP to take the loss, giving up 5 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 5. Verlander gave up 2 runs in the 2nd and the eventual game winning run in the 4th, courtesy of a Nelson Cruz solo home run. His opponent on the night, C.J. Wilson was also very un-ace like for the Rangers. In his 4 2/3 IP, Wilson gave up 2 runs on 6 hits and a whopping 5 walks, while striking out 6. Once the rain delay was over in the 5th and the game resumed, this game was the story of the bullpens. Both pens pitched shutout ball the rest of the way. Rick Porcello, Phil Coke and Ryan Perry kept the Tigers in this one, but the Rangers were able to make their early 3-2 lead stick. The stars of the night were the Texas Rangers’ relievers, as one by one, they can in to stifle the Tigers bats.
Mike Gonzalez earned his paycheque for the year by coming in on the 5th to the greatest pressure situation in baseball as a reliever. Bases loaded, Gonzalez faced Alex Avila with 2-outs. Needing only 2 pitches, Gonzalez retired Avila to end the inning and the Tigers best chance at breaking this game open. From there, Alexi Ogando, Darren Oliver, Mike Adams and Neftali Feliz over 4 innings gave up 1 hit, 1 walk, and struck out 8. As lock-down as you get in baseball. Blame it on the rain, blame it on the Rangers having home field advantage and coming in rested. No matter how you slice or dice it, the Tigers were good on this night. But the Rangers were better. With the Rangers high-octane offense and stacked bullpen, the Tigers bats will need to muster more than two runs in a game if they hope to compete with the reigning AL champions. Another great game in the archives, in what is becoming one of the better MLB playoffs in recent history.
Preview of Sunday October 9th:
Game two of the ALCS was scheduled to go tonight, with Derek Holland on the hill for the Rangers and Max Scherzer for the Tigers. With rain in the forecast at a 90% probability, Major League Baseball wisely postponed this one until tomorrow afternoon. With Doug Fister not scheduled to pitch until game 3, the Tigers need this game or face a 2-0 deficit. The Rangers will be hungry to take the Tigers down early and get back to the World Series in a hurry. This series is far from over and should prove to be an excellent battle. Over in the National League, the Cardinals and Brewers are set to begin their battle. Jaime Garcia and Zack Greinke face-off in what should prove to be a classic. With many “experts” picking the Brewers to advance to the World Series, Tony LaRussa and his Cardinals have their work cut out for them. But as the Cardinals proved against the Philadelphia Phillies, a team with Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter cannot be counted out. Both teams have strong bullpens, as is the case in the American League. With tight games, this game could come down to Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford of the Brewers, or Fernando Salas and Jason Motte for the Cardinals. With Zack Greinke starting the war of words, the battle lines have been drawn. Another great series, leading up to the 2011 World Series.
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2011 MLB Playoffs: Recap Tuesday October 4th
Wednesday October 5, 2011
MLB reports: While three teams on Tuesday could have moved on to the next series, only one team did. Here is a recap of the scores and highlights from Tuesday’s games:
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees: ALDS Game Four
With A.J. Burnett on the mound, Yankee fans were on the edge of their seat in anticipation for the game against the Tigers. They knew they needed a win, and a big one.
Well, they got exactly that.
Derek Jeter started the scoring in the third inning with a double that scored Russell Martin and Jorge Posada.
They would hold the 2-0 lead until the bottom of the fourth, when Victor Martinez launched a solo homerun to make it a 2-1 game.
That would, however, be the only run that the Tigers would score as the Yankees scored another run in the 5th, when Curtis Granderson doubled Brett Gardner. Later in the inning, Alex Rodriguez would score Derek Jeter to give the Yankees a 4-1 lead.
And they never looked back.
In the top of the eighth, Al Alburquerque, facing Jesus Montero, balked which allowed Alex Rodriguez from second. Montero would later single to score Mark Teixeira. Daniel Schlereth would then come in for the Tigers, but it didn’t get any better, as he threw a wild pitch that scored Montero and then gave up a 2-RBI single to Robinson Cano. After a 6-run inning the score was 10-1.
Evidently, that would be the way the game ended as Boone Logan struck out the side in the ninth, as the Yankees forced a game 5. Burnett went 5.2IP allowing one earned run on four hits, three walks and one strikeout. From then on in, the collective bullpen pitching, including Rafael Soriano, Phil Hughes and Boone Logan pitched 3 1/3 of no-hit baseball, allowing no walks yet striking out six. Game five goes tomorrow night in New York, Fister vs. Nova for all the marbles.
Texas Rangers at Tampay Bay Rays: ALDS Game Four
The Rays had been in this position not too long ago – one loss away from not being able to move on to the next step. Recognizing this, they sent Hellickson to the mound against Rangers’ Harrison.
That said, after already winning two games in a row, the Rangers were not going to go down easy as Ian Kinsler hit a home run in the first at-bat of the game.
In the 2nd, the Rangers added to their lead with another home run, one from Adrian Beltre, and already Texas was up 2-0.
In the bottom of the inning, the Rays cut the Rangers lead in half thanks in part to Matt Joyce’s RBI double.
Adrian Beltre, did not give up easy and in the forth, launched another solo home run. His 2nd of the game.
But again, the Rays fought back and again, Sean Rodriguez scored, this time off the bat of Casey Kotchman.
Adrian Beltre though would not allow the Rays to catch up as, in the top of the seventh, he launched his THIRD home run of the game.
In the bottom of the 9th, with the score 4-2, Sean Rodriguez once again told his team he wanted to cross the plate once again. So sure enough, Casey Kotchman singled him in with one out in the ninth, making the score 4-3.
But the third Beltre homerun proved to be the difference, as Alexi Ogando got Matt Joyce to pop out and Desmond Jennings to ground out.
Harrison got the win, going five complete innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits while walking two and striking out nine.
With the win, the Texas Rangers move on to the next series, facing off against the winner of the New York Yankees and the Detroit Tigers.
Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals: NLDS Game Three
Everyone loves great baseball and that is certainly what was received when Phillies’ Cole Hamels faced off against Cardinals’ Jaime Garcia.
There was no score until the seventh inning as both pitchers were cruising along. Much like what occurred in all other aforementioned games, a home run proved to be the difference as after Shane Victorino singled and Carlos Ruiz was intentionally walked, Ben Francisco was placed in to pinch hit and he did not disappoint – launching a three run home run to give the Phillies a 3-0 lead.
The Cards fought back in the bottom of the inning as David Freese hit an RBI single that scored Allen Craig.
They would carry this momentum into the ninth inning as Albert Pujols led off the inning with a double off Ryan Madson. Pujols would later score off of a Yadier Molina single but that would be all they would get as Ryan Theriot grounded out to end the game, enabling the Phillies to win by a score of 3-2.
Cole Hamels got the win, going six complete innings without a run, allowing five hits and three walks, but striking out eight. Game four goes tonight in St. Louis, Oswalt vs. Jackson.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers: NLDS Game Three
In a must-win game for the Arizona Diamondbacks, they sent Josh Collemeter to the mound against Brewers’ Shaun Marcum and Collemeter did not disappoint.
Arizona got on the board early against Marcum thank in part to a RBI double from Miguel Montero and an RBI single from Paul Goldschmidt.
Both of these scoring plays were fielder by centerfielder Corey Hart, so Hart felt he needed redemption. When he got up to bat in the third, he did exactly that, hitting a homerun to left field, and cutting Arizona’s lead to 2-1.
The damage, however, had already been done. In the bottom of the inning, Arizona added to their lead when Aaron Hill scored on Montero’s second RBI of the game. On the play, Nyjer Morgan got Justin Upton out on a close play at the plate.
With the score 3-1, Arizona knew they needed a few more runs to ensure a game four. Evidently, Paul Goldschmidt was thinking the same thing as in the fifth inning, he hit a GRAND SLAM (GOLDSCHMIDTTTTT!). Kameron Loe would then come in to pitch and replace Marcum, but Arizona was much too dominant, scoring another run in the inning from a Ryan Roberts RBI single, giving the Diamondbacks an 8-1 lead.
This evidently would be how the game would end as Milwaukee managed only three hits in the game. This can be attributed to Collemeter’s fantastic game as he went seven complete innings, allowing only two hits, one earned run on two walks and six strikeouts.
Marcum’s outing was not as great, as the ex-Blue Jay went 4.2 innings, allowing seven earned runs on seven hits and three walks while striking out three. Game four is the late game tonight in Arizona, Wolf vs. Saunders.
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2011 MLB Playoffs: Recap Monday October 3rd
Tuesday October 4, 2011
April Whitzman (Blue Jays Writer – MLB reports): With the National League taking the night off, we were treated to game three in both ALDS series. Here is a recap of the scores and highlights from Monday’s games:
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers: ALDS Game Three
It may not have been the pitching duel that everyone expected, but Monday’s game between Yankees’ CC Sabathia, and Tigers’ Justin Verlander was still an exciting one.
While Verlander pitched a strong 120-pitches-eight innings hitting 100MPH continually, striking out 11 and allowing four runs, six hits and three walks. Sabathia, on the other hand, never made it through the sixth, allowing four runs and seven hits with six walks in 5 1/3 innings.
After the first inning, however, one would not have expected that outcome. Derek Jeter hit the first pitch he saw for a single, scored on Curtis Granderson’s triple, who then scored on Alex Rodriguez’s groundout. T he Yankees had an early 2-0 lead.
The lead didn’t last long as Sabathia had control issues right away, walking four of the first six hitters he faced. Double plays proved to be the Tigers’ Achilles though, as they grounded into a double play to end both the first and second innings.
In the third, however, things turned around for the Tigers. Brandon Inge started the bottom of the inning with a double, Austin Jackson walked, Santiago scored Inge on a single, then Young singled, loading the bases for Miguel Cabrera – who homered in game 2. He grounded into the Tigers’ third double play of the game, but still tied the game at 2 apiece.
While the Tigers were continuing to put numbers on the board and grabbing the 4-2 lead, Verlander was dominating. He also proved his excellence on this night by striking out the side on 10 pitches in the fifth.
Yankees’ Brett Gardner finally got to the 24-game winner in the seventh, hitting a two-run double. Delmon Young, who also homered in Monday’s game off Sabathia, allowed the Tigers to regain the lead with a home run to right field that gave Detroit a 5-4 lead.
That would be the way the game ended, as a shaky Valverde struck out Derek Jeter with runners on 1st and 2nd to end the game, giving the Tigers a 2-1 series lead. In today’s must win game for the Yankees, A..J. Burnett is on the mound against Tigers’ Rick Porcello.
Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays: ALDS Game Three
The Rays and Rangers match was just as tight and nerve-wracking for the fans. Tampa Bay’s David Price hit the mound against Texas’ Colby Lewis. Both pitchers were dominant through seven, as the Rays held a 1-0 lead thanks to Desmond Jennings leadoff home run in the 4th.
But in the top of the 7th, the Rangers answered back. Once Adrian Beltre got on with a leadoff single, Mike Napoli hit the next pitch he saw over the centerfield wall to take a 2-1 lead. Josh Hamilton would later hit a 2-RBI double to increase their lead to 4-1.
But the Rays werenot going to go down without a fight. They got a run back in the bottom of the inning, when Sean Rodriguez grounded out but scored Johnny Damon. The Rays cut the Rangers’ lead to 4-3 in the eighth, when Desmond Jennings hit his 2nd home run of the game.
Neftali Feliz kept the score intact though in the 9th, inducing a Kelly Shoppach double play with Jennings on deck to end the game, earning his 2nd save of the playoffs. The Rangers took a 2-1 lead in their ALDS series.
In today’s game, Matt Harrison for the Rangers faces off against Tampa Bay and Jeremy Hellickson. It is a must-win game for the Rays, but after their historic win against the Yankees to make it to the post-season, my gut says this series should go the distance.
As always, I look forward to hearing from you. Comment below, email MLBreports@gmail.com and follow me on Twitter at @Alleycat17.
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How to Value and Manage Catchers on Your MLB Fantasy Team
Monday October 3, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): The catching position is one that is often the most mismanaged by fantasy owners. A very thin position, it is difficult to find value from catchers in the deeper leagues. Furthermore, you take a big risk dedicating a high pick or significant auction money at a very injury prone position, as 2011 owners Joe Mauer and Buster Posey owners know all too well. Even a healthy catcher will sit for a significant amount of games each year due to the wear and tear of the position.
For these reasons, I generally advise to not overpay for a player at this position. But with that said, for the right price, the top batch of catchers can provide you significant value. However, too many times before we have seen significant year yo year decline from players at this position. You simply should not rely on production at this position. Spend your bucks elsewhere. Based on matchups and playing time, it is possible to scrap together value for next to nothing.
For example, Chris Iannetta and his .238 average, 51 runs, 14 HR, and 55 RBI, disappointed many fantasy owners in 2011. But a closer look at the numbers shows the true value he provides. We all know the effect that Coors Field has on hitters, but for Iannetta it is staggering. His 2011 home numbers look like this: .301 batting average, 10 HR, 39 RBI and 3 SB.
If you were to only start Iannetta at home in 2011, you would great numbers all across the board for half of the season. You are essentially getting 50% of Brian McCann for way less than 50% of the price. The discrepancy in his splits is dramatic that it makes him so easy to use as an owner. Only start him at home and never think about starting him on the road!
Now, for the days that Iannetta is on the road, there are plenty of options in the bottom half of the rankings that would be available on the waiver wire. Let’s pick someone like Miguel Olivo. His 19 HR and 62 RBI provide great production from the thin catching position, but his .224 average leaves a lot to be desired. However, an owner is much better equipped to muster this average if the number of at bats are cut in half. If you combine this morph of Olivo and Iannetta, you are looking at these types of numbers:
.260-.270, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 6 SB.
These numbers are essentially right on par with Brian McCann’s 2011 line (.270, 24HR, 71RBI, 3SB). McCann is a consensus top five
catcher, while Iannetta and Olivo are viewed outside of the top-15. You are essentially creating McCann for a lot cheaper and inherent risk that comes with investing money in the catching position. Furthermore, there are more options out there if you think Olivo’s average is too much of a killer. It all depends on your team’s needs and what categories you are chasing. If you are more concerned about average, guys like Nick Hundley and Jonathan Lucroy might be more attractive options. Looking for power and RBI production? Names such as J.P. Arencibia, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki (there are even more) are all useful under the right circumstances.
For example, look at Geovany Soto’s numbers against left-handed pitching in 2011: .296 average, 7 HR and 15 RBI in just 98 at-bats. This is in stark contrast to his .207 average and 10 home runs in 323 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
The point is that it’s easy to piece together production at this position. There are several players who contribute in the HR and RBI categories and you can get the most out of them by maximizing their strengths based on matchups and ballparks.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
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2011 MLB Playoffs: Recap Sunday October 2nd
Monday October 3, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern – MLB reports): The first Sunday of postseason baseball didn’t have any letdowns for viewers. Starting at about noon, I watched and listened to roughly ten hours of baseball. Usually after I spend one of my Sunday’s watching baseball, I wish I could have those hours back because I really didn’t have the free time to watch all those games. The postseason is way different. No matter what I have to do, I always try to make sure watching the games is my top priority. After Jason Motte recorded the final out of the day, I felt like that was the best way I could’ve spent my day. Albeit from my couch, there’s nothing like cheering on your favorite teams and players during October. Enough rambling, let’s get to the games.
Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees: ALDS Game Two
In the top of the first inning, Miguel Cabrera hit a 2-0 changeup from Freddy Garcia 337 feet into the right field bleachers. Only at Yankee Stadium is that a home run, the short porch in right field gives hitters an almost unfair advantage. Max Scherzer was terrific, not allowing a hit until Robinson Cano singled in the bottom of the sixth. Scherzer finished the game after throwing six shutout innings striking out five. Freddy Garcia didn’t pitch that bad he was just made a couple of mistakes and had some bad luck. After six innings, the Tigers appeared to be in control. Then, the rain started coming down. I can’t believe that the Yankees spent 1.3 billion on a new stadium but they couldn’t even construct a retractable roof. Anyways, Joaquin Benoit twirled two innings, just giving up a Curtis Granderson homer. Jose Valverde didn’t make it look easy in the ninth, allowing a Nick Swisher dinger, then a Jorge Posada triple! Nonetheless, “Papa Grande” got Robinson Cano to ground out with runners on first and second to end the game. On the offensive side of this game the Tigers star was Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera went 3 for 4 with 3 RBI. Cabrera showed how versatile of a hitter he is hitting an opposite field homer, poking an RBI single up the middle, and pulling a single to left field. Now the series will head to Detroit tied up 1-1. Game time is Monday at 8:30 PM ET.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers: NLDS Game Two
Ryan Braun got things started with a two run homer off Dan Hudson in the first. However, in the top of the 2nd Paul Goldschmidt took Zack Greinke deep. I have no idea why Kirk Gibson didn’t start Goldschmidt in the first game, as he obviously deserves to be in there. In spite of both teams starting talented pitchers, this was not a pitcher’s duel. Milwaukee took a 4-1 lead in the third thanks to Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder driving in the runs. By the sixth, Arizona had tied it up at 4-4 largely in part to Chris Young and Justin Upton going deep. However, in the bottom of the sixth everything fell apart for the D-Backs. The Brew Crew had runners on first and third when catcher Jonathan Lucroy shocked the Diamondbacks by laying down a suicide squeeze to score Jerry Hairston. After that, things just fell apart from Arizona’s pitcher Brad Ziegler; he gave up three straight singles to Corey Hart, Nyjer Morgan, and Ryan Braun. By the time Ziegler was pulled, the Brewers had a 9-4 lead. The Brewers relievers combined to throw four shutout innings, and the Brewers won by the final score of 9-4. When asked after the game, Willie Bloomquist A.K.A Willie Ballgame had this to say, “We’re going to come out fighting on Tuesday. It’s a tough position to be in, but you know what? We’re comfortable with the uncomfortable.” The series is now 2-0 Brewers and the two teams will meet in Phoenix on Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET.
St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies: NLDS Game Two
To lead off the game Rafael Furcal tripled but then the Cards ran into Cliff Lee, who retired the 2-3-4 hitters without allowing a run. The Phillies delivered a big blow in the bottom of the first, with Ryan Howard coming through with a bases loaded single. Chris Carpenter, pitching on three days’ rest, had a rough day, only lasted three innings while giving up four runs. In the fourth inning, the Cardinals scored three times, and would’ve scored four if it weren’t for it weren’t for Raul Ibanez gunning down Jon Jay at the plate. Jay tied things up in the sixth with a single to score Ryan Theriot from second. The Cardinals bullpen threw four consecutive 1-2-3 innings baffling Phillies hitters. I was impressed by Tony LaRussa’s methodical use of his bullpen. Some games LaRussa looks like an idiot, some games he looks like a genius. I guess that’s just the way he works. In the top of the 7th Charlie Manuel decided to leave Lee in despite him being over 100 pitches. The decision backfired when Shane Victorino misplayed an Allen Craig line drive. Craig was in at third with a standup triple and he didn’t have to wait long before Albert Pujols drove him in. Jason Motte needed only six pitches (all of which were over 90 MPH) to earn the save. The Cardinals finished with thirteen hits to the Phillies six. The series will switch to St.Louis all tied up. The next game is on Tuesday at 5:00 PM ET.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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2011 MLB Playoffs: ALDS Day One Recap
Saturday October 1, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern – MLB reports): Going into the day, the opening day of playoffs had some pretty high expectations to live up to. While the games weren’t as electrifying as the last day of the season, it was pretty fun to finally watch some high pressure postseason baseball. Here is a recap of what happened today:
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers: ALDS Game One
The Rays came into this game with energy and by most accounts, the number three rated prospect in all of baseball taking the mound. Perhaps the most emotional part of the game was the first pitch thrown out by Cooper Stone. Cooper’s dad Shannon was killed after falling while trying to catch a foul ball. The game started in pleasant 80 degree weather in Arlington with a stadium filled with fans wearing Rangers colors. After the Rays had scored six runs in the first three innings, it became obvious that the Rangers would need to rely on their offense. This is something they’ve done all year, but Matt Moore proved to be too much for the Texas sluggers. He was so dominant that in the sixth inning Josh Hamilton, of all people, tried to bunt for a hit (his effort was unsuccessful). Moore pitched seven scoreless innings while allowing only two hits. Talk about impressive. Matt Moore is only twenty-two years, and this was only his second start in the majors (fourth appearance). If the Rays thought they could hide Moore in the minors for a few months next year, now it seems next to impossible. To have such a big time performance in front of the whole country will be something that will stay with him forever. (Another thing that will stay with him forever is his extremely bushy eyebrows, but that’s a different story for another time.) The Rays other hero was Kelly Shoppach, the thirty-one year old backup catcher. Shoppach went 3 for 5 with 5 RBI and 2 homers. That’s pretty impressive considering he batted .176 with 11 HR on the season. When asked after the game about Matt Moore, Shoppach had this to say, “His nameplate said Matt Moore and I said, ‘Who is Matt Moore?’ … Nobody will forget his name now.” This game wasn’t a thriller but it showed how many different players on a given day have to contribute in order for the Rays to have success.
Result: Rays win 9-0 to take a 1-0 lead in the series.
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: ALDS Game One
This game started off with Delmon Young going deep off C.C. Sabathia to right field. The ball carried just inches over Nick Swisher’s glove and gave the Tigers an early lead. However, the Yankees battled back to score in the bottom of the first. After that, the rain started. This is becoming a trend for postseason baseball and it’s not good for the game at all. In my opinion, Bud Selig should shorten the season or start spring training earlier in order to avoid this in the future. Nobody enjoys watching how weather affects the game. We just want to see the best players square off against each other. Anyways, the rain kept coming until at fifteen minutes past 11PM in New York, the umpires decided to suspend the game. Since this is the postseason, that means that the current score, outs, strikes, etc. will be delayed until Saturday at 8:37PM ET. The only real bummer is that Sabathia and Justin Verlander won’t be able to finish their matchup. Sabathia wants to pitch tomorrow but I think that’s doubtful and a bad idea no matter how thin the Yankees rotation is. According to Yankees beat writer Bryan Hoch, Ivan Nova is likely to get the start tomorrow. So if that is true the “starters” will be Nova for New York, and Doug Fister for Detroit. Fister is 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA since being traded to Detroit, so he will provide a challenge for the Yankees offense. It should be a fun game to watch, providing the rain holds up.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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Game 162 and Beyond – Can MLB Top That?
September 29, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): In order to write all of this, I needed to step away from my TV and computer, take a deep breath, and sleep for a while. The excitement of last night was almost too much for my fragile heart to bear, so the time away to clear my head was necessary.
I find myself repeating, “What just happened??” in my head. What happened last night was unfathomable. Not only were there two teams in each league tied for the Wild Card, but both teams that had been leading, suffered epic failures along the way. Go back to September 1, and the Boston Red Sox held a 9 game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Atlanta Braves held an 8.5 game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals. Both teams chances of reaching the postseason were over 99%. Nobody could have actually predicted seriously at that time, that both the Cards and Rays would win the Wild Card on the final day of the regular season. Especially not the way that the AL Wild Card was eventually decided.
The Rays started David Price against the Yankees. Sounded promising enough, until Price gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. The game was pretty much over with th
e score at 7-0 in the Rays’ half of the 8th inning. 3 runs plated in the bottom of the 8th, then Evan Longoria took over the game. A 3-run home run put them within one run, and Tropicana Field exploded. Then with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th, Rays manager Joe Maddon made one of the gutsiest calls I have ever seen: pinch hit with Dan Johnson. Johnson was 9 for 90 this season. He hadn’t gotten a hit since April. He had 36 hits since 2008. With one swing of the bat, the pandemonium levels in Florida had never been so high. Then, as if he hadn’t done enough already, Longoria blasted another home run, this one of the walk-off variety that would vault the Rays to the postseason.
What hasn’t been said about Boston and their collapse? It has been covered by so many people from so many angles. You could blame the whole organization from top to bottom, and you wouldn’t be wrong. What happened was an epic collapse, capped off by a 2 out rally by the Baltimore Orioles of all teams in the bottom of the 9th inning of game 162. The Orioles had nothing to play for but pride, and the love of the game. Robert Andino’s walk-off single to win the ball game will be remembered by Boston fans for years to come.
Hunter Pence hit a bloop-ish 120 ft infield single to win it for the Phillies over the Braves. In the 13th inning. After Craig Kimbrel, the super rookie, blew a lead in the 9th inning. The game saw the Phillies march out nine pitchers and the Braves used 8, including Scott Linebrink, who eventually gave up the winning run in the 13th.
Chris Carpenter twirled a gem for the Cardinals, a 2 hit shutout with 11 strikeouts and 1 walk against the Astros. This performance sealed at the very least a one-game playoff game against the Braves had they won.
Wow what a night.
Now onto LDS matchups:
Rays vs. Rangers
The Rays come in with unlimited momentum, and a pitching staff that is so deep, that manager Joe Maddon is having a difficult time naming the starter for game 1. While Matt Moore seems to be the obvious choice to me, Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis could be viable options as well.** James Shields would have to go on short rest, and Price pitched last night, so one of the other three will be chosen to go against C.J. Wilson and a Rangers offense that is ready to take on all comers. Shields will go game 2 and Price go the 3rd. Beyond that is a toss-up. For the Rangers, Wilson will go Game 1, Derek Holland game 2, and still undetermined the rest of the way.
Adrian Beltre had a phenomenal September, earning AL Player of the month, and Mike Napoli has been dominant all year, bashing home runs all over the field. Michael Young worked his way into the MVP race after a tumultuous offseason that saw him switch positions yet again. Josh Hamilton is as dangerous as ever, and Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler are still hitting home runs at a high rate. Kinsler actually became only the third 2nd baseman to join the 30-30 club, with 32 HR and 30 SB. The Rays may not have the prodigious bombers that the Rangers have, but they have athletic, smart ballplayers that never say die. They ultimately seem like a team of destiny, and I will not discount the fact that they may have the best manager in all of baseball at the helm.
** Note: Matt Moore has been named the starter for game 1.
Rays in 4
Yankees vs. Tigers
So the Yankees have the highest payroll in baseball, and the Tigers have the 10th, about $100,000 between them. Should be easy, right? Yankees
should take this series in 3 games. Wrong. Detroit has one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball in 2011 in Justin Verlander, who should win the Cy Young vote unanimously. He should also garner serious MVP interest. Against him will be CC Sabathia, who has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball the last 7 or 8 years. Doug Fister was brought in to shore up a shaky Tigers rotation, and with Max Scherzer, the Tigers look like they have a pretty decent chance. Behind Sabathia will be rookie Ivan Nova, who I am not sold on, and after him is Freddy Garcia, who is having a fine year, but is nowhere near the pitcher he used to be.
Robinson Cano has been his usual stellar self playing 2nd base for the Yankees, but there were a lot of subpar seasons by other Yankees. Derek Jeter was better than last year, A-Rod was almost nonexistent for a lot of the season, and aside from Curtis Granderson, the lineup struggled to find consistency. The Posada soap opera continues, but giving Jesus Montero more at bats needs to happen. The kid can swing it. The Tigers have another MVP candidate in Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez has been stellar, and they have a young kid behind the plate named Alex Avila who could be in line for a Silver Slugger award. The Tigers are younger, and hungrier to win, but the Yankees have more overall talent. Even if their roster is aging, and this one should go down to the final out.
Tigers in 5
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers
The two best managers in the NL this year; Kirk Gibson of the DBacks and Ron Roenicke of the Brewers square off in this ultimately tight series. Arizona did it this year with a cast of relative nobodies and no real superstar other than Justin Upton. The Brewers have Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Zack Greinke, John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez. They have star power up and down the lineup and rotation, and they have a great fan base.
Ian Kennedy may be a Cy Young candidate, but the Brewers have more depth in their rotation. Yovani Gallardo will oppose him in game 1, followed by Shaun Marcum and Greinke, who will be opposed by Josh Collmenter and Daniel Hudson. The Brewers also have the dominant back-end of the bullpen in K-Rod and John Axford, who was 46 for 48 in save opportunities.
Brewers in 5
Prince Fielder just missed his 11th straight season of .300/ 30 HR/ 100RBI. He hit .299 with 37 home runs and 99 RBI. The cards are not just a one trick pony, however, as Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, and Yadier Molina have been stellar all season long. If they can get solid contributions from their secondary players they could make the series interesting. The Phillies, like the Brewers, have tremendous star power in Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Not to mention one of the best deals of the year in Hunter Pence. They have a veteran presence filled with guys who have been to the postseason five years in a row, and have the ability to hit any team’s pitching.
If you ask anyone who knows anything about baseball what team has the best pitching, the unanimous decision would go to the Phillies. The 4 Aces look to lock up Philly’s second World Series in the last 4 seasons. Led by Roy Halladay, or Cliff Lee, or Cole Hamels, every team in the postseason should be scared. It is not very often that a team could have 3 pitchers in the top 5 for the Cy Young Award, but it could happen this year. Roy Oswalt will pitch game 4 if necessary. Tony La Russa has decided to open the series with veteran Kyle Lohse, which seems asinine. Edwin Jackson will go Game 2 and Chris Carpenter game 3. Jaime Garcia, who could be their most talented pitcher, will throw game 4 if necessary.
Phillies in 4
All 4 series should play pretty close, and the series I am most excited to watch is Arizona vs. Milwaukee. If Game 162 was any indication of what is to come of the postseason this year, then everyone needs to grab their popcorn and beverages, get bunkered down, and get ready for a long, gruelling, exciting month of baseball.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Javier Vazquez Behind the Numbers: The Fantasy Value of Pitchers
Monday September 26, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): After a historically bad start to the regular season, Javier Vazquez has finished the 2011 campaign on a hot streak to the delight of many fantasy owners who found the 35-year-old right-hander available on the waiver wire. He is ending his season and career with a bang, not allowing a run in his last 25 innings pitched and winning five consecutive starts. His 7 wins, 2.16 ERA, and 87 strikeouts in 87 innings make him one of the strongest starting pitching assets in all of baseball post all-star break.
Going into the season I actually grossly overpaid for Vazquez and ultimately traded him away. I continued to monitor the pitcher because I knew what he was capable of doing on the mound. However, sitting at 5-8 with a 5.23 ERA at the all-star break, Javy lived up to the criticisms that he has endured throughout his entire career. On paper, Vazquez appears to be one of the most consistent pitchers of the past decade, earning double-digit victories in each of the past twelve seasons. Returning to the NL East, many people, myself included, had high expectations for Vazquez in 2011. After all, he is just two years removed his finest season as a professional with 15 wins and 2.87 ERA for the Atlanta Braves. But the guy is far from consistent. Season to season, month to month, and from start to start you never knew which Javy Vazquez you were going to get – just ask one of his former managers, Ozzie Guillen. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3602173
New York Yankee fans are also all too familiar with Vazquez as well, as his stints in the Bronx in both 2004 and 2009 are reminiscent of A.J. Burnett’s 2011 campaign. There is no question that Vazquez is streaky and frustrating to own, for both real and fantasy managers.
However, Vazquez finished 2011, and he says his career, with one of the strongest stretches of his career – conveniently down the stretch for savvy fantasy owners.
So what took Vazquez so long to get his act together in 2011? The answer is actually very clear and it has everything to do with his velocity. To start the season, his average fastball velocity started around 86 miles per hour but steadily increased and finally reached the 92-93 miles per hour range for the second half of the season. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=801&position=P&pitch=FA
As his fastball velocity increased, so did the frequency in which Vazquez used it. While it’s rare that a 35-year-old regains velocity, it is
evident that it was the key to his success. The gain in velocity, coupled with a low-pressure situation in Florida in the NL East, allowed Vazquez to morph back into the pitcher he was in 2009. Although some players rely on velocity more than others, it certainly is a major factor in a pitcher’s success. Just look at Ubaldo Jimenez. With an average fastball velocity of 96mph in 2010, he put together a 19-8 season with a 2.88 ERA. In 2011, his velocity dipped to 93.9 mph and Ublado had trouble getting hitters out, compiling a 10-12 record with an ugly 4.47 ERA. Unless Ubaldo can have a Javy-like resurgence in velocity, he will be forced to improve his secondary pitches and will probably never again be a Cy Young contender.
This gets me to the point of the article. Many fantasy owners tend to ride players who are on hot streaks. But how can you predict these hot streaks when luck plays such a big factor? There needs to be an identifier for success, because all too many times we see players burst onto the scene with a few good starts but soon fizzle away. Sample size is very important, and Vazquez has demonstrated that he is capable of success. It was the gain in velocity and Vazquez’s placement in the NL East that made him a second half commodity. Therefore, before you trust a guy who is “hot”, be sure you do your research and find out why. Otherwise, you are simply gambling. With starting pitchers look for the factors that might contribute to a pitcher’s success: velocity, pitch selection, league and division, and ballpark.
Next week I will take this even further and discuss FIP and XFIP. If you play fantasy baseball and don’t know about www.fangraphs.com, do yourself a favor and familiarize yourself with the site and sabermetrics. This will give you a more accurate depiction of how a pitcher is throwing the ball and better indicators for future success, thereby eliminating the guessing games and searching for “hot streaks.”
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
How Far Will the Yankees Go in the 2011 Playoffs? Prediction Time
Sunday September 25, 2011
Jeff P (Guest Writer – MLB reports): The Yankees entered the season with a troubled rotation, some great bullpen signings from the offseason, and a star-studded lineup.
As the season commenced, the Yankees had immediate troubles in the rotation. The troubles in the rotation started with their former number two starter Phil Hughes, who seemed to be dominant going into the year, yet wasn’t able to play due to a “Dead arm”. The rotation ended up being filled by a rookie (Ivan Nova), C.C. Sabathia, a struggling A.J. Burnett, and two veterans who weren’t very successful in the past few seasons (Colon and Garcia).
The Yankees were up for the challenge, as they not only beat out the nearly untouchable Red Sox in the AL East division race, but also had a season full of historical baseball moments. Derek Jeter, became the first player in Yankee history to reach the 3,000 hit mark, as for Mariano Rivera, who is now the all-time leader in saves in Major League Baseball history.
Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia unexpectedly became huge parts in lifting Yankees until the day they clinched the division spot. As for Ivan Nova, he won 16 games for the Yankees in the “Journey to the playoffs”. Now the Yankees are finished with that chapter and are now on a new journey: the “Journey to the World Series”.
The playoffs are about to start soon, as the Yankees are in the process of last-minute preparations. Unnamed sources have leaked
out that Ivan Nova will start game two, and A.J. Burnett will not appear as a starter in the playoffs. The Yankees’ playoff rotation is looking more favorable for Freddy Garcia to be the number three starter, as Bartolo Colon is going through a horrific slump. Colon’s ERA (earned run average) in September is well over a 6.50, resulting in his ERA surpassing 4.00 on the season. Therefore it is probable that Freddy Garcia will be named to start for the Yankees in the 2011 MLB playoffs.
There have been multiple questions concerning Jesus Montero’s spot in the Yankees playoff roster. To date, it seems likely Yankees will proceed to place him on the roster in place of Francisco Cervelli, as he is expected to come back later in the playoffs due to concussion symptoms.
Besides the rotation, bullpen, and the Yankees lineup, backups also take on a big role in the “Key to success”. The Yankees backups are looking extraordinary as the season is nearing an end. The backups will include a trio of Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez, Andruw Jones, and either Jesus Montero or Jorge Posada as of now. The backups are looking promising, and can take a big part in the “Journey to the World Series”.
The Yankees have a team full of playoff greats, such as Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and others such as Alex Rodriguez, and C.C. Sabathia. There is a debate as to whether the veterans can lift the Yankees this year to championship Number 28. The answer is that the Yankees veterans have the promise playoff strength. Veterans such as Derek Jeter (also known as Mr. November), and Mariano Rivera, among others who have experience and the strength to lift the Yankees in the postseason. However, the Yankees veterans are aging, and as they age, they get less and less reliable. This leaves the backups with a huge role to fill.
The Yankees teams consists of youth, veterans, and a great deal of confidence. The confidence was within the clubhouse on Thursday, as C.C. Sabathia stated in an interview with MLB.com, that if he plays correctly he will win. With the attitude and the strength to do so, the Yankees could go far into the playoff race this year.
The Yankees will most likely play the Texas Rangers, or the Detroit Tigers. There is uncertainty which team as of yet, though each team has their ups and downs, and certain distractions they will have to face. Let’s take a look at the potential matchups:
Detroit Tigers: The Tigers have an outstanding rotation coming into the playoffs. Max Scherzer, is a strikeout master, while Justin Verlander is just about a master of everything. Verlander has produced great success this year, as he is seeking to win the AL Cy Young, and possibly become the first pitcher to win the AL MVP award in the last 20 years.
Doug Fister will be a huge part of the Tigers playoff plans, as his ERA dropped below 3.00 recently. His September stats consist of four wins and a 0.69 ERA. Fister’s streak is looking unstoppable, and will be a hard match for the Yankees. The Yankees pitching isn’t looking very promising as of late, and the Tigers clearly win that category. If the Yankees can’t produce runs against the hard throwing Tigers’ pitching staff, it may be hard to get by them. The Tigers key hitters are Miguel Cabrera, Alex Avila, and Victor Martinez. With the Yankees pitching rotation banged up, the Tigers could prove to be a very difficult opponent.
Prediction: Yankees in five
Texas Rangers: All eyes are on the Rangers banged-up rotation now. C.J. Wilson, who has been having substantial success this year for the Rangers, is facing a problem to think about. As the offseason approaches, so does free agency. Free agency can affect not only the thoughts of players, but how they are playing. Thoughts are a very powerful thing, as on different occasions it can be hard to think about free agency when playing. The pressure is immense. Although in Wilson’s case, the pressure could prove to be a motivator to pitch well.
Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland, and Colby Lewis are among the other probable starters. All of them are decent pitchers, though they occasionally rely on help from their offense for run support, which will prove to be the main problem for the Yankees rotation.
The Rangers lineup includes Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler in the heart of their lineup. This will
be an extremely difficult problem for the Yankees rotation, as Rangers seem to possibly have the best lineup in the majors. The Rangers offense may possibly even be better than the Yankees lineup. If the strength of the Rangers rotation and lineup continue to consume strength, the Yankees could be outmatched.
Prediction: Rangers in five
Assuming the Yankees play the Tigers, and proceed to the second round, with either the Red Sox/Rays (depending on who wins the wild card), or the Rangers, both series will be a close call and consist of exciting games to watch. The Red Sox are in a similar situation as the Yankees, as their pitching staff has averaged a 6.60 ERA in the last ten games played. If we have a Yankees and Red Sox matchup in the ALDS, it will likely go the full seven games- where anything is possible.
The Yankees have made history this year and accomplished feats over the years that no team has ever matched. Most importantly, the team wants to succeed. Success is a big thing for the Yankees organization. The Yankees are survivors, never give up, and always look to come back when down. This year has already been one big accomplishment, as the Yankees surpassed the Red Sox in the standings and possibly in making the playoffs. Now the team is looking for championship rings in the year of 2011.
***Today’s feature was prepared by Jeff P, Guest Writer to MLB reports. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Jeff on Twitter.***
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Fantasy Baseball Report: Value of Elite Setup Men: Romo, Alburquerque, Adams and More
Monday September 19, 2011
MLB reports: We welcome the newest member of the MLB reports team, Peter Stein. For all you fantasy baseball fanatics, Peter will be featuring weekly reports for you! In his debut, Peter discusses the value of elite setup men and how they can benefit your fantasy team:
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Playing in a standard 15-team, daily league, auction, 5 X 5 Roto league this year, I learned many valuable lessons in fantasy baseball. However, one strategy and way of thinking in particular proved to be the most valuable and has had my team in cruise control and on the way to first place since the middle of July. (Disclaimer: Although this article is most applicable to daily roto leagues, the basic concept can be extended to all formats of fantasy baseball).
While most relievers who do not contribute saves largely go unnoticed, the game’s top setup men can provide the highest of quality innings (ERA, WHIP, and K) and as a result are extremely undervalued by fantasy players across all boards.
It is common for owners to spend half of their budget on two or three top of the line starting pitchers with the idea that they can rely on these aces to carry their team in the pitching categories. However, said owner will still have over 50% of their innings to relegate –often to a variety of run of the mill starters or high-risk high reward types of players. If you play your matchups right, it is true that there are many starters who can provide quality innings for you. For example, on my team, outside of Felix Hernandez, for starting pitchers, I relied heavily on starting pitchers ranked outside of the first tier, such as Colby Lewis (95 innings), Derek Lowe (63 innings), John Danks (54 innings), Javier Vazquez (61 innings), Gavin Floyd (41 innings) Erik Bedard (39 innings), and Ryan Dempster (37 innings) in my effort to reach the 1,250 innings limit.
I managed to get tremendous value out of these players based on matchups (a whole different discussion), but you have to be careful with guys like this. Each of these guy’s season totals are very unimpressive, and if used incorrectly can ruin your team. Danks, Lowe, Floyd and especially Vazquez and Dempster each had epically bad stretches this year. Personally, I have only used Vazquez for 61 innings, but it has come with a 1.45 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. If I threw Javy out there for every inning this year I would have to swallow an unimpressive 3.95 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
But back to the topic at hand (Vazquez will actually be the focus of next week’s article), the point is that you simply cannot receive 200 quality innings from these guys. You need to look elsewhere and this is where the game’s elite setup men become so valuable. Three or four setup men, used in conjunction with each other, can contribute the same value as one ace – without having to deal with the stress of matchups!
To prove my examples, and draw from my team, lets take a look at Sergio Romo and Al Alburquerque, Mike Adams, three player
s who cost me $1 each. For frame of reference, the game’s elite pitchers, such as Felix Hernandez and Tin Lincecum, went for $45 and $43 respectively.
In 40 innings pitched, Sergio Romo contributed an ERA of 1.40 a WHIP of 0.64, a whopping 62 strikeouts, and a useful 3 wins and 1 save. Although, he pitches approximately twenty percent of the innings of Felix or Lincecum, he provides value that is actually significantly better than both of these starters. Now lets add Alburquerque’s 39.2 innings, which come with a league best 14.1 k/9 ratio, a 2.04 ERA and 6 wins. Talk about some quality innings and a sure way to boost strikeouts. A guy like Al can allow you to use a low strikeout starter who contributes to ERA and WHIP – perhaps a Mark Buehrle. Albuquerque is owned in just 1.0% of ESPN fantasy leagues, but if started all year he provides 6 absurd starts that are really uncharacteristic of ANY starter in the league.
Do you see what I’m on to?
Mike Adams, perhaps the most well-known of the trio entering 2011 (for save potential), in 68.2 innings has contributed 4 wins, 2 saves, and ridiculously low ERA (1.44) and WHIP (0.70 totals).
I morphed these three players into one. This three-headed monster (costing me $3 dollars), contributed 192 strikeouts in 150 innings, a WHIP of 0.87, an ERA of 1.63, 13 wins and 3 saves. Lets see how this imaginary player, lets call him Sergal Adamquerque, stands up to next to King Felix:
Felix Hernandez Romo/Alburquerque/Adams
IP 230 150
W 14 12
K’S 220 192
ERA 3.32 1.63
WHIP 1.19 0.87
Saves 0 3
Do you see the point here? The combination of these relievers, for $3, provides more value than Felix Hernandez who cost $45! I use Felix as an example is because is one of the elite pitcher’s in the game, and I myself spent $45 on him in my draft. However, this was not $45 poorly spent. It is impossible to rely solely on relievers to fill your league’s innings limits. You must have an anchor on your staff, such as King Felix. I also received great support from two other aces, Zack Greinke (88 innings) and Cliff Lee(45 innings), but was able to trade them for help in the hitting department. However, the point is, not even Felix, Lee, or Greinke can give you the value in strikeouts, WHIP, and ERA as these elite setup men. Used in combination with one another, these guys can create your very own “ace,” one that is inexpensive and allows you to budget your dollars to bolster your offense.
With that said, it is true that it is difficult to predict wins with reliever, but remember Felix Hernandez will likely end up with a total of 15 wins in 200 innings. These relievers only need three or four wins in 50 innings to provide similar value in that department. However, you could also get surplus value here. In 2010 Tyler Clippard won 11 games in 90 innings. There is always the chance that these studly setup men take the reign as closer. I drafted my Sergio Santos for $1, partly due to my lack of faith in Matt Thornton, but also because in 2010 he averaged over a strikeout per inning with good ERA and WHIP. Now as a closer in 2011, with a 12.86 k/9 ration, he figures to be a hot commodity in 2012 drafts.
You might think I am drawing form a small samples size. Although I have focused on a few players, the list truly goes on: David Robertson, Koji Uehara, Jonny Venters, Greg Holland, Chris Sale, Glen Perkins, Aaron Crow, Daniel Bard, Tyler Clippard, and Antonio Bastardo are all examples of players who provide just as much value (or more) per inning as the game’s elite starting pitchers.
It is true that the list of the very elite reliever sis short, but there a long list of players who are still extremely useful. To really prove my point, lets look at a reliever who is the third or fourth option on his own team, only owned in 1.5% of leagues, yet still provides tremendous value: Jesse Crain. The little known and used Crain could have provided your team (to date) with 63 strikeouts in 67 innings, 8 wins, and a stellar WHIP (1.19) and ERA (2.29). You really don’t need to dig that deep to find value from relief pitchers.
The Takeaways:
Relievers do not need to get saves to provide value and as such do not overpay for closers who don’t contribute positively to the ERA, WHIP, and K categories. If you are going to splurge on a closer, it better be someone like Craig Kimbrel, but there is still risk when you pay big bucks for a top closer. Joakim Soria, usually a given to contribute in ERA and WHIP, actually provided negative value for fantasy owners this year in these categories. His 28 saves are not worth the $20 dollars I spent expecting his usual elite numbers.
Next year go ahead and spend the money on the elite pitcher or two to anchor your staff. However, do not waste the dollars and overpay for innings from unproven or middle of the road starting pitchers. These innings can be much more effectively filled with a plethora of setup men from around the league. Draft a sure closer or two, and if you invest wisely in the elite setup men, you will be sure to own another closer or two down the road. Investing in these types of relievers in the draft and on the waivers will save you money – money that can be used on your offense and s on elite starting pitching. You can now dedicate your bench spots to these relievers, shuffling them in and out of your lineup along side an ace or two, and you will get value per inning on the same scale as Felix, Lincecum and other elite starting pitchers. It will require you to not only to target such players in the draft, but you will also have to be a hawk on the waiver wire. Just think of a combination of three of four of these players as one Felix Hernandez, but for 10% of the price.
Clearly, this strategy is most effective in larger leagues and league that allow you to make daily roster changes. However, I hope this article demonstrates how setup relievers have potential to add value in all fantasy leagues, although they are largely ignored or overshadowed by closers.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Yu Darvish – 2012 MLB Savior?
Saturday September 17, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): This offseason, there could be only two elite pitchers available for teams to bid on. While C.J. Wilson looks to sign a deal close to $100M, CC Sabathia may be looking at opting out of his current contract with the Yankees. Before the 2009 season, Sabathia signed a 7 year, $161M contract in which he makes $23M annually from 2010-2015. Add in the fact that there will be at least five teams fighting for the services of two pitchers, an alternative must be found.
Yu Darvish, a Japanese right-handed pitcher could be the answer. Although it has not been confirmed that Darvish will even make the trek to North America to play in the MLB, teams are lining up to watch him pitch. Darvish’s ERA in the Japanese Pacific League for the Nippon Ham Fighters sits at 1.47. He also has 223 strikeouts. His 4-seam fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range with a great 2-seamer (or shuuto) with a lot of movement at 89-91 mph. He has a slurve, as well as a split-finger, which seems to be his choice for an out pitch.
Many teams will be interested in Darvish, but how many really have the financial ability to bid for him in the posting process. The process is basically a silent auction, with all teams that are interested putting a bid in, and the highest bid wins. The winning team then has 30 days to agree to a contract with the player. If an agreement is not reached, the posting fee is then returned back to the MLB team.
A player of Darvish’s magnitude rarely comes up in the posting process, so estimating a potential price is difficult. Really, the only compar
ison is Daisuke Matsuzaka. In 2006, the Boston Red Sox bid of $51,111,111 earned the rights to negotiate with the right-handed pitcher. Matsuzaka then agreed to a 6 year, $52M contract, that could be worth as much as $60M with incentives. Matsuzaka has been dominant at times, as witnessed by his 2008 season, where he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. He was 4th in Cy Young Award voting after keeping hitters to a .211 average. He has also been below average, as this year, before going on the disabled list, he walked 5.5 batters per 9 innings.
There are very few teams with the financial flexibility to pull off such a move, while the other teams will pass Darvish up.
New York Yankees
With a payroll over $200M annually, the Yankees can always be in on any free agent, especially a high profile one. Behind CC Sabathia, who may opt out of his current contract, the Yankees have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Ivan Nova has had a solid season, but AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes had extremely disappointing campaigns. If the Yankees want to continue their success in the AL East, Darvish may be the key.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox, like the Yankees, have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Behind Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, who were extremely solid this year, the rotation has been a mess. Matsuzaka struggled, Lackey has been pretty bad, and Tim Wakefield is nearing the end of his career. They don’t NEED Darvish like the Yankees do.
Toronto Blue Jays
General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has recently said that he was in Japan scouting Darvish. The Blue Jays also have question marks beyond ace Ricky Romero. Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil underperformed this year, while 21 year old Henderson Alvarez has really impressed in the second half. The Blue Jays have stated they could take on a payroll of $140-150M when the team is ready to contend.
Texas Rangers
GM Jon Daniels was in Japan in the summer to watch Darvish pitch, and could be a frontrunner for his services. With CJ Wilson ready to hit the free agent market, the Rangers will have a lot of quality innings to replace. Derek Holland is developing into a solid starter, to go along with Colby Lewis and Alexi Ogando.
LA Dodgers
If the Dodgers ownership issues ever get solved, with the young core of players they have, they could put in a very serious bid. With the franchise struggling, and Hiroki Kuroda’s $12M coming off the books, expect the Dodgers to be aggressive this offseason if a new owner is put in place. One of the most storied franchises in baseball could get a huge boost in having Darvish come to town. Clayton Kershaw and Darvish could create a very formidable duo on the mound.
While other teams such as the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners have shown interest, I feel as though these five teams are the best possible fit. They have the money, and they have the willingness to shell it out to the right player.
I believe a posting fee near $65,000,000 will gain the negotiating rights to Yu Darvish. While the Yankees and Red Sox are always dangerous, I think that CJ Wilson is the biggest wildcard in the situation. If he walks from the Rangers, look for them to be very aggressive with Darvish. The winning team will likely have to cough up around 6 years and $75M in a contract, meaning the total amount spent by the team would be around $130M over 6 years. For that kind of money, these teams better be sure they are getting the ace they are looking for to take them over the top.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Contenders for AL Rookie of the Year Award: Who Will Win?
Monday September 12, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern Candidate- MLB reports): With the regular season coming to an end, it’s time to start looking at baseball’s awards. The American League Rookie of the Year will definitely not be an easy choice for BBWAA voters. Even though the top candidates are pretty clear, there is still about 20 games left for most teams. This last month is important for candidates to solidify their numbers and argument for the award. Here is my opinion on who should win the award.
Three of the five last winners of the AL ROY award have been pitchers. When choosing who I think deserves the award one of my key requirements is playing time. In my opinion, a mediocre pitcher who pitched the whole season is more impressive than a position player who was only in the majors for half of the season. Also, I don’t think the team of the players record is important enough to be a consideration for voters. This award should be chosen for a player’s impact in the majors, not how hyped up of a prospect he is. So I’ll try to look past the shock value and breakdown some of the candidates.
Eric Hosmer: Kansas City Royals
Hosmer made his Royals debut on May 6th and has been the Royals starting first basemen ever since. For the year, Hosmer has batted .286/.334/.462 with 17 HR and 69 RBI’s. He has been the consistent middle of the order bat that the Royals have lacked ever since Carlos Beltran got traded.
Michael Pineda: Seattle Mariners
When Pineda was named the Mariners fifth starter right before the season started, most Mariners fans didn’t know what to expect. Michael was an American League All-star and has slid into the Mariners #2 starter spot. His numbers have tailed off a little as the season has gone on, but the Mariners still haven’t made the decision to shut him down. He has a 3.72 ERA in 167 innings with 171 strikeouts. That’s more than Jon Lester and Matt Cain. Also as his 3.42 FIP suggests he has actually been better than his ERA suggests. However, he has pitched in a pitcher’s park this year which have probably helped his numbers.
Ivan Nova: New York Yankees
Nova just barely has eligibility, but he has had a surprisingly solid season as one of the Yankees backend starters. He is 15-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 144 innings. Obviously, the number that stands out is the fifteen wins, which is impressive for any pitcher. Still, with the Yankees offense wins aren’t a great stat to judge performance. Speaking for myself, I just don’t think his numbers are impressive enough to be the 2011 AL Rookie of the year.
Jeremy Hellickson: Tampa Bay Rays
Going into the season, there were pretty high expectations set for Hellickson. ESPN fantasy baseball teams were drafting him at an average of 163rd. He definitely has lived up to those assumptions and maybe even exceeded them. He is 12-10 with a 2.96 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 170 IP. Not to mention, he has done this while pitching in the toughest in baseball. He has had a lot of luck this season, as his 4.30 FIP and 4.57 xFIP suggest (courtesy of fangraphs.com). Also, he has the highest LOB% among all pitchers that have thrown over 100 innings.
Mark Trumbo: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
After the Angels received the news that Kendry Morales would start the year on the disabled list, the Angels first base options looked bleak. Trumbo was the favorite to win the job but wasn’t a very heralded prospect. Baseball America had him as the Angels 9th best prospect. Trumbo not only won the job, but he ran with it. On the season, he is hitting .256 with 26 HR and 80 RBI’s. He leads all rookies in homers, RBI’s, and SLG%( for rookies with more than 300 plate appearances). Not to mention, he has provided an above-average glove at first base. His batting average is not great, and his OBP% is under .300(.295), so he hasn’t been perfect this year. In the end, he has made contributions to his team unlike any other candidate.
Honorable Mentions: Dustin Ackley, Desmond Jennings, Jordan Walden.
I think Ackley and Jennings didn’t play enough games to deserve the award, and Walden has been too inconsistent. However, if Jennings were to lead the Rays to an improbable playoff spot, I think he should win the award or receive strong consideration by the voters.
If I had a vote at the end of the day, I would vote for Trumbo- with Pineda, and Hellickson following. There is still plenty of time left, but in my mind Mark Trumbo deserves the 2011 American League Rookie of the year award.
***Today’s feature was prepared by one of our intern candidates, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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Sunday MLB Insider Report: Our Views on the Latest Baseball News
Sunday September 4, 2011
MLB reports: Here is our weekly look at Major League Baseball and the latest news, together with analysis and of course, our opinions:
I am about to finish the latest baseball book that I am reading and will be posting a review this week. “The Fastest Thirty Ballgames”, by Ballpark Chaser extraordinaire, Doug Booth. I don’t want to give away much of my report, that will be saved for the review. Needless to say, the book has inspired me to fulfil my goal of seeing all thirty MLB ballparks. While it takes me ordinarily a couple of days to a week to complete a baseball book, this particular book has taken me much longer. I have read and re-read this book over and over, going back to read favorite sections. For any baseball fan who loves baseball road trips or is thinking of taking one, this book is the perfect travel companion.
One of the biggest topics on the lips of Yankees fans is the contract status of C.C. Sabathia. After Ivan Nova, the Yankees have several question marks as to their rotation going into the playoffs. Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett are all in the mix. But if Sabathia were to hypothetically opt out of his deal and test free agency, the Yankees pitching staff could collapse like a house of cards. It appears that Sabathia has enjoyed his time thus far in New York and plans to continue pitching as a Yankee. Although Sabathia will likely opt out, both player and team will do everything possible to keep the big guy in pinstripes. Sabathia will become even richer on a new deal, as Alex Rodriguez was on his decision to opt out and sign a new Yankees deal. For the team with the highest payroll in baseball, to contend it will re-sign its ace in the offseason.
Rumors are circulating that many MLB General Managers will be wooed to change teams in 2012. Brian Cashman of the Yankees,
Andrew Friedman of the Rays and Theo Epstein of the Red Sox are all apparently in demand, as is Billy Beane in Oakland and Mike Rizzo in Washington. From all the best GMs that will be considered for the Cubs position, the only one I could see is Cashman. With his contract up in New York and the Steinbrenner regime exercising control in decision-making (see the Rafael Soriano deal), Cashman may have had enough and makes the move to the Windy City. All of the other GMs are in great positions, with little or no incentive to make the leap. Some have called for the Astros to make a strong play for Friedman, but I see him staying put in a great situation with a strong talent base. Friedman will see his team through to an eventual World Championship.
I had several conversations with baseball people about the World Baseball Classic, with the third edition coming up rapidly in 2013. As discussed in a previous article, there are some changes to the WBC that have been instituted, including a qualifying tournament in the fall of 2012. New countries in the mix include Great Britain, France, Israel and Brazil. In all there will be 12 new countries, together with 4 holdover countries vying for 4 open spots into the tournament. From the 16 existing WBC countries, 12 were granted automatic berths into the tournament. The challenge facing MLB and WBC officials is to have eligible players play for their respective countries. One particular country I discussed was Israel. Imagine a team lead by Ian Kinsler, Ryan Braun and Kevin Youkilis. Quite the powerhouse offense. To have this tournament ultimately succeed, star players that are eligible for new and less known baseball countries need to play for these countries and increase the exposure of the sport in those regions. That is really what the WBC is all about.
For fans in Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Washington, and San Diego, please be patient. Your teams will be better. It might be hard to believe and some of you must be sick of hearing it, but your teams have great young talent and each will be a contender one day. The only variable against you is time.
With their victory over the Giants last night, the Diamondbacks now hold a six game lead in the NL West. How Kevin Towers
remained on the market so long before being hired in Arizona is beyond me. Derrick Hall and company have put together a nice young team, with strong management on the field and in the front office. Towers has put together the team and manager Kirk Gibson has molded them into a contender. It goes to show that a bleak situation can be transformed almost overnight, if you have the right people in place. Baseball, as much as any other sport, starts with the people in charge. A solid management foundation flows through the whole organization and can make or break a major league team. Arizona is the team of destiny in the NL West in my mind and while they will have a very difficult time passing the Phillies if they make the playoffs, just playing in October this year will be considered a huge victory for the team.
Outside of New York and Boston, many baseball fans are apparently sick of talking about the Red Sox and Yankees. For as much as fans may despise the teams, as baseball fans they should still respect them. Baseball, without the history and tradition of the Red Sox and Yankees, would have a large void. During my recent trip to Cooperstown (with a full report on my experiences coming soon), I was fascinated by the Babe Ruth exhibit and all the features on the two powerhouse squads. There are no guarantees that either the Red Sox or Yankees will be in the World Series this year. But having the teams in baseball is a good thing. Attendance figures on the road when either team in town shows the demand. You may hate the Red Sox and Yankees. But you love to hate them. For those of you that are either Red Sox or Yankees fans (can’t be both), you are some of the most passionate and knowledgable fans in baseball and I salute you.
I have been speculating since spring training that Jonathan Papelbon will leave Boston and join the Phillies this offseason. I read some speculation this week that the Yankees may look to add him as the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera. I could only imagine the feeling in Fenway the first time Papelbon would step foot on the mound in Pinstripes. Unlikely to happen in my opinion, but speculating can be fun sometimes. Until I hear otherwise, I am predicting Papelbon to the Phillies.
With the playoff races in baseball almost completed, it is time to turn our attention to October and thinking about the teams that will play in the World Series. My picks at this point are the Rangers and Phillies. Call it a hunch. Call me crazy. I am seeing a Texas Philadelphia matchup and one of the best fall classics in recent history.
Finally, I made a point on Twitter yesterday that the regular season is almost done. If you have not made it a live game yet this year or even if you have gone to twenty or more games, try to attend as many September games as you can. When November hits, the winter can be quite a sad time for baseball fans. Unless you can make it out to Arizona or Mexico, chances are that you will not be able to watch winter ball. With the internet, those games can be found to be viewed on your computer. But as fans can attest, nothing beats a live ball game. Enjoy as many of those games as you can now.
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Adam Dunn: The Future of the White Sox Slugger
Wednesday August 31, 2011
MLB reports: Not every player can fit onto a particular MLB team. That is a baseball reality. In fact, there are very few, if any players that could produce the same statistics playing for any team. A player’s production is based on many factors, including home park, lineup, adaptability to particular cities and so on. When a team trades for a player or signs a free agent, the hope is that the new player will be able to meet or exceed previous production levels on a new team. Sometimes, the hope is that new environment will revitalize a stagnant player and breath new life into them. In the case of Adam Dunn, the Chicago White Sox signed him to a free agent contract last year. A large deal, 4 years for $56 million dollars. A fair deal in my estimation at the time. The White Sox by signing Dunn were hoping to land an established slugger to fit in the middle of their lineup. What they ended up with was quite different.
Take a look at Adam Dunn’s current production in comparison to his career numbers:
| BA | HR | RBI OBP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | .163 | 11 | 40 .290 | |
| Career | .244 | 365 | 920 .374 |
To say that Adam Dunn has been anything but a disaster since his arrival in Chicago would be an understatement. Prior to 2011, Dunn’s worst season produced an .819 OPS. That was in 2003, his 2nd full season in the majors that was cut short by injuries. Turn the clock and Adam Dunn sits with a .578 OPS this season with no likelihood of redemption. While some pointed to Dunn playing in a new league for the first time and starting off slow, a turnaround was expected at some point this season. Dunn has actually regressed to the point that he is benched by manager Ozzie Guillen at a frequent rate. A sad state of affairs for one of the game’s previously most consistent sluggers.
For a two-year stretch, from 2003-2008, Adam Dunn was a 40 home runs and 100 walks guy. In his last two seasons, Dunn played in a less than friendly hitters park in Washington and still hit 38 home runs per season. Moving to the White Sox, expectations were that playing in a hitter’s park with a deep lineup would produce possible MVP type numbers for the burly slugger. So what happened? Why the sharp regression?
Part of the issue has been the move to the American League. The adjustment
has not worked for some hitters and we have seen NL hitters in the past that cannot play in the AL for whatever reason. Glenn Davis is one famous example that comes to mind, who moved from Houston to Baltimore and literally fell apart overnight. Dunn also is a full-time DH for the first time in his career. Some hitters never take as well to moving off the field and into a DH role, citing inactivity and removal from the full game experience as distractions from their hitting. Given though Dunn’s perceived weak fielding, at both first base and the outfield, a move to DH should have been a welcome change for him. Yet the move was another factor in his year-long slump.
The main culprit in my estimation is the fit, or lack of in Chicago. Perhaps it is the city, or the ballpark, teammates, media or his relationship with the manager. Whatever the reason, I ultimately believe that Adam Dunn and the White Sox simply do not mesh more than anything else. While a return to the field and/or the National League may help, first and foremost Dunn needs to get out of Chicago and start fresh.
I think of Chone Figgins and his move from the Angels to the Mariners. Despite staying in the same division even, Figgins was never able to meet expectations in Seattle and regressed throughout his time with the Mariners. Had he stayed in Anaheim, the chances are higher that Figgins would have continued playing his game and not transformed into a shell of his former self. Carl Crawford in Boston and Jayson Werthin Washington are players that also signed big-ticket deals and also stayed in their respective divisions, yet faltered in the wake of big contract expectations. But the difference with Crawford and Werth is that they have shown some glimpses of life this season, while Dunn has shown none. I fully expect Crawford at least to be able to make the necessary adjustments and rebound by next season. In Dunn’s case, I do not see that happening without a trade.
Nick Swisher is a situation that I will point to as an example. From the
moment Swisher was traded from the A’s to the White Sox, nothing went right. After suffering through the worst season of his career in Chicago, Swisher was traded to the Yankees for pennies on the dollar and blossomed in New York. The same will likely occur to Dunn. A move to the Yankees is a possibility, for a high-profile team that can afford to take on or part of most of Dunn’s salary. A trade for a bad contract is another one, with the Cubs for Zambrano or Giants for Zito as possibilities. Better yet, a move to the Angels could also be the answer. With Mike Trout ready to join an outfield of Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter, the Angels may not have room for failed trade acquisition Vernon Wells. The White Sox could plug Wells into their outfield and Angels use Dunn to replace Bobby Abreu as DH. A long shot, but certainly a possibility.
No one can be sure if this season is an outlier or an indication of the beginning of the end for Adam Dunn. Based on his strong body of work until this year, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that a rebound will occur. The White Sox might wait it out and give Dunn another shot next year. But then GM Kenny Williams has never been the patient type. After moving Swisher very quickly, I expect the White Sox to do the same with Dunn. This would be a classic buy-low situation for another MLB club. Expect many calls on Dunn in the offseason and a new team by 2012. Despite Dunn indications of having retirement thoughts due to his poor season, I cannot see him going down in this manner. Adam Dunn will be back. The only question is where.
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MLB Home Run Leaders: A Look at the Leaderboard
Monday August 29, 2011
MLB reports: We are coming to the last month of the MLB season. Readers are often requesting updates as to the hone run leaders and to handicap who will be the leading sluggers by year’s end. Taking a look at the current top 10 home run hitters in baseball, we find many familiar faces and some surprises. Here is our updated look at the mashers and bombers of baseball:
T-1: Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees (38)
Oh yes. The Grandyman can. The baseball world has gone Granderson crazy. From what appeared to be a hitter on the decline when he joined New York, Curtis Granderson has reinvented himself into an MVP candidate in 2011. Watching Curtis in Detroit, most expected him to be a 20 something home run hitter at most. Imagine that he has already hit 38 home runs with a month to go. It goes to show that baseball can be a very unpredictable sport and that New York still has the power to create miracles. I do not expect to see him on this board for the next five years, but for 2011 at least, Granderson has shot up to the top of the baseball mountain.
T-1: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (38)
A regular on this list all season, Bautista has picked up from where he left off last season. While unable to maintain the Ruthian pace he was on in the first half of the season, Bautista has maintained his strong numbers throughout the year. With his 38 home runs, Bautista has already walked 107 times and has a 1.098 OPS. MVP voters will have much to consider at the ballots this year.
3rd: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees (35)
There are some certainties in life. Death, taxes and Teixeira home runs. This man is as steady as they come and despite the lack of flash and glitter, he always seems to get the job done. No surprise to see him this high up on the list. Teixeira is simply money in the bank. You never have to worry about him.
T-4: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals (31)
For all the talk of doom and gloom, Albert Pujols still made the top five list. A “down” season for Sir Albert is a .895 OPS and 31 home runs. Numbers that most players would die for, but not anywhere close to his high standards. As an impending free agent, I fully expect Pujols to remain in St. Louis. But with his statistics not at his norm, the Cardinals might be able to sign him at a slightly more realistic price tag. $22 million per season rather than $25 million perhaps.
T-4: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers (31)
Matt Kemp, or Baby Manny as he was called as a young prospect (the second coming of Manny Ramirez) has blossomed this year. Together with his 31 home runs, Kemp has already driven in 100, has a .964 OPS and a .320 AVG. Getting much press as a NL MVP candidate, Kemp is finally beginning to fulfill on the potential he had shown in his career leading up to this season. People thought for some time he was good, but I don’t think many expected such a strong campaign. A young player on the rise, Kemp might only be scratching the surface on many productive seasons to come.
T-4: Mark Reynolds, Baltimore Orioles (31)
Our generation’s Rob Deer keeps plugging away with the long balls. Reynolds has a respectable 31 home runs thus far, but have come with a whopping 157 strikeouts. More disturbing though his .226 AVG. An all-or-nothing slugger throughout his career, Reynolds is not showing any signs of improvement. The signs are showing for him to bounce around baseball, eventually ending up as a platoon player or even to Japan.
T-7: Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins (30)
One of the youngest and brightest stars in the game, Stanton has exploded in Florida in a big way. Heralded as the next Dave Winfield, Stanton has not disappointed in 2011. With 30 home runs to go along with a .889 OPS, Stanton is showing that the promise and hype is for real. Rumored to be requested by the White Sox as part of the Marlins hoping to land Ozzie Guillen as a manager, the Marlins are surely happy they held onto their young slugger. Together with Logan Morrison and Gaby Sanchez, expect Stanton to blossom into a top ten player in baseball very soon.
T-7: Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals (30)
Once considered a top hitter in the game, Berkman had many question marks surrounding him after a down season last year. While many analysts thought the Cardinals were taking a risk by signing him, the Cardinals brass were confident in Berkman’s ability to rebound. Back in the NL Central and surrounded by Pujols and Matt Holliday in the lineup, Berkman has not disappointed. With 30 home runs, 77/75 BB/K, .289 AVG and .975 SLG, Berkman is getting MVP consideration as well as a lock as the NL Comeback Player of the Year. While Berkman cannot continue like this forever, expect at least 1-2 more solid seasons out of the seasoned veteran.
T-7: Dan Uggla, Atlanta Braves (30)
What a journey Uggla took this year. With a .232 AVG, one expect Uggla to be considered to be having an off-year. But with 30 home runs a 33-game hitting streak, Uggla has had his moments this year. Considered one of the best hitting second basemen in the game, power is a big part of Uggla’s repertoire. While the rest of the numbers are down, the long balls have remained constant. With his first year on a new team out of the way, expect a rebound from Uggla next season.
T-10: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers (29)
Considered to be one of the biggest prizes in the offseason free agent derby, Prince Fielder is having a fantastic campaign for the Brewers. Together with his 29 home runs, Fielder scored 81 runs, driven in 102, has 87/84 BB/K and hit .295, with a .955 OPS. The questions on people’s minds is whether he will stay in Milwaukee and if the biggest free agent contract this year will go to Fielder or Pujols. With Scott Boras as his agent, my money is on Fielder moving to greener pastures and commanding the top contract as a free agent. Together with Ryan Braun, Fielder gives the Brewers a strong team going into the playoffs in what is likely his last season in Milwaukee. Although number ten on this list, Fielder has shown the consistency this season to be considered one of the top hitters in the NL this season.
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Top 10 Closers: MLB Saves Leaders
Thursday August 25, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB reports): Closers are a topic a lot of people ask about, but I never really got around to writing about. Mainly because, in my opinion, it is a position that is completely overrated. While it certainly helps to have a guy that can go in and slam the door and collect saves for over a decade a la Mariano Rivera, it isn’t necessary to have a “closer” to be a contending team. One need only to look at the top 20 leaders in saves in baseball to notice that the Texas Rangers’ closer Neftali Feliz sits 19th with 25 saves, and Philadelphia Phillies’ Ryan Madson is 20th with 23 saves. It also doesn’t guarantee success, as Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Leo Nunez, Joel Hanrahan are all in the top 10 in saves, while their teams are not in playoff contention.
Top 10 Saves Leaders in MLB as of today:
| Pitcher | Team | Saves | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| Craig Kimbrel | Atlanta Braves | 40 | 14.56 | 3.53 | 1.70 | 1.20 | 3.1 |
| John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers | 37 | 10.86 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.36 | 1.7 |
| Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers | 37 | 8.31 | 4.79 | 2.72 | 4.08 | 0.2 |
| Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants | 35 | 8.72 | 5.20 | 3.19 | 3.40 | 0.7 |
| Heath Bell | San Diego Padres | 35 | 6.79 | 3.23 | 2.55 | 3.07 | 0.7 |
| Drew Storen | Washington Nationals | 34 | 8.03 | 2.19 | 2.77 | 3.48 | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees | 33 | 8.45 | 0.92 | 2.20 | 2.23 | 1.8 |
| Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins | 33 | 8.31 | 2.88 | 4.63 | 4.02 | 0.1 |
| Joel Hanrahan | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 7.85 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 2.17 | 1.8 |
| JJ Putz | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 8.28 | 2.17 | 2.76 | 3.10 | 1.0 |
I look at this list and a few things come to mind:
1) Craig Kimbrel is absolutely filthy.
2) Mariano Rivera is still one of the very best.
3) Closers are more overrated than I originally expected.
4) A lot of saves does not equal success.
5) Craig Kimbrel. Wow.
Craig Kimbrel is having the best year ever for a rookie closer. It isn’t even September and he has 40 saves. Not only that, but he is striking out more than 14 batters per 9 innings. His FIP is a ridiculous 1.20, and his WAR is at 3.1, which is 1.3 higher than any other closer in the Major Leagues. His ground ball rate is 43.7% and has only given up 1 home run in 63 2/3 innings. If the Braves end up winning the Wild Card and have a lead late in games, the shutdown duo of Johnny Venters and Kimbrel should be able to save the game for the Braves in most instances.
John Axford has had a strange way to becoming one of the premier closers in all of baseball. It took him many years to get there, but under the tutelage of Trevor Hoffman, the career saves leader, whom Axford took his job from, he has flourished. In 2010, Axford had 24 saves after taking over for Hoffman mid-season, and this year’s 37 so far are tied for 2nd in the big leagues. Axford gets over 50% ground balls, and keeps the ball in the yard, two main factors for his success.
Jose Valverde is one of the closers whom I find to be overrated. Part of his success can be attributed to a lucky .250 BABIP. He also
walks close to 5 batters per 9 innings, which is extremely high, especially when he does not strike out a very high number of batters. Valverde may appear to be very good with 37 saves, but his 0.2 WAR suggests that he is basically a replacement level pitcher. Surely he is not worth the $7M he is being paid.
Brian Wilson is loved by many in the game. He is funny, has a strange personality, (which seems to be perfectly suited for the bullpen) and he has an outrageous beard. Since 2008, he has accumulated 162 saves, so he is very valuable at the back-end of the Giants’ bullpen. He keeps the ball on the ground, with a career 50% ground ball rate, but he walks a ton of batters (5.20/9IP). He gets a lot of save opportunities because the starting rotation is very good, and his team doesn’t score many runs, so there are a lot of close games.
Heath Bell has put up some ridiculous numbers over the last few years, but these numbers come with half of his games played in the cavernous PETCO Park. While his last two seasons had his K rate over 10, he sits at 6.79 for this season. His ground ball rate is also down 5% to 43. Although his ERA is a good 2.55, his xFIP is 3.89, and like Wilson, gets saves because of an anaemic offense that results in his team often being in close games.
Drew Storen is another of the Washington Nationals’ young phenoms. He moved up the ranks, throwing only 53 2/3 innings in the minor leagues before making his debut in 2010. He has been a tad lucky as his BABIP is .241, but he gets a lot of ground balls, so the hits will even out. He also gives up a higher than average home run per fly ball rate at 11.1%. Storen doesn’t walk many, and as he matures, should probably strike out a higher number. When Washington starts winning more games, he will have even more opportunities for saves.
Mariano Rivera is up to his usual tricks. Even at 41 years old, he is carving up hitters with his signature cut fastball. Rivera has a ridiculous 9:1 K:BB ratio, as well as getting ground balls 47% of the time. His WAR sits at 1.8, tied for second best for closers. The only question is when will this guy ever slow down?
Leo Nunez of the Florida Marlins may be the most overrated closer in baseball. Nunez doesn’t get a lot of ground balls, nor does he strike out a ton, as he gives up a ton of fly balls (49%) and home runs (8 in 56 IP). Nunez’s ERA of 4.63 actually looks worse than his 4.02 FIP, so he has been a little unlucky, but still not very good.
Joel Hanrahan has found a home at the back-end up the Pirates’ bullpen, and is thriving there. While his K rate has dropped to 7.85/9 IP from almost 13 last year, he has walked less batters. Hanrahan has been able to induce ground balls on over half of his plate appearances, and only given up 1 home run in 57 1/3 innings. His stellar numbers have allowed him to tie Rivera for 2nd in closer’s WAR this year.
JJ Putz’s resurgence as a closer this year comes as no surprise to many. Last year as a setup man for Bobby Jenks with the Chicago White Sox, Putz’s K rate was just below 11/9IP, while he walked only 2.5 per 9 innings. He hasn’t put up the same strikeout numbers this year, but he is walking less batters. Putz’s WAR of 1.0 puts him towards the top of the list of closers.
Out of the top 30 relievers in WAR, only 9 are full-time closers. Francisco Rodriguez is among those pitchers, but since he does not close games since traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, he was not counted. Although this doesn’t mean that just ANYONE can close games and earn saves, it does show that many pitchers who have not been given the opportunity probably could get the job done.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Flashback: Steve “Bye Bye” Balboni Profile
Monday August 15, 2011
MLB reports: Today we are taking a walk down memory lane to revisit one of our favorite players of all time. Steve Balboni, or better known to baseball fans as “Bye Bye” Balboni, was one of the prominent home run hitters of the 1980s. Balboni was an all or nothing hitter, either launching home runs or striking out at a high clip throughout his career. In the likeness of Rob Deer at the time and Mark Reynolds today, Balboni was the type of hitter that we do not often see in the majors anymore. Always want fun to watch and having left us with memories of moon shots off his bat, today we look back at the career of Bye Bye Balboni.
Balboni played for four major league teams over his eleven MLB seasons: the Yankees, Royals, Mariners and Rangers. His power numbers over his career speak for themselves:
| Year | Tm | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1981 | NYY | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | .286 | .375 | .714 |
| 1982 | NYY | 2 | 4 | 6 | 34 | .187 | .228 | .280 |
| 1983 | NYY | 5 | 17 | 8 | 23 | .233 | .295 | .430 |
| 1984 | KCR | 28 | 77 | 45 | 139 | .244 | .320 | .498 |
| 1985 | KCR | 36 | 88 | 52 | 166 | .243 | .307 | .477 |
| 1986 | KCR | 29 | 88 | 43 | 146 | .229 | .286 | .451 |
| 1987 | KCR | 24 | 60 | 34 | 97 | .207 | .273 | .427 |
| 1988 | TOT | 23 | 66 | 24 | 87 | .235 | .277 | .448 |
| 1988 | KCR | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 | .143 | .156 | .270 |
| 1988 | SEA | 21 | 61 | 23 | 67 | .251 | .298 | .480 |
| 1989 | NYY | 17 | 59 | 25 | 67 | .237 | .296 | .460 |
| 1990 | NYY | 17 | 34 | 35 | 91 | .192 | .291 | .406 |
| 1993 | TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .600 | .600 | .600 |
| 11 Seasons | 181 | 495 | 273 | 856 | .229 | .293 | .451 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 31 | 84 | 46 | 144 | .229 | .293 | .451 | |
| KCR (5 yrs) | 119 | 318 | 175 | 568 | .230 | .294 | .459 | |
| NYY (5 yrs) | 41 | 116 | 75 | 219 | .214 | .286 | .415 | |
| TEX (1 yr) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .600 | .600 | .600 | |
| SEA (1 yr) | 21 | 61 | 23 | 67 | .251 | .298 | .480 | |
One may have expected Balboni to have more than 181 career home runs over his career. Consider though that over his eleven seasons, Balboni only played one full season (1985). In the Royals World Series championship year, Balboni was at his peak. He had a career high 36 home runs, to go along with his league leading 166 strikeouts. Balboni only had 400 or more at-bats in four major league seasons. Despite only having one full season of at-bats under his belt, Balboni had six or more seasons for of 20+ home runs. But it was not the memory of the number of home runs or strikeouts that Balboni that has lasted with us. It was the way he came to the plate and swung completely for the fences.
When Bye Bye Balboni connected for home runs, the sound of the ball launching off his bat was a thing of beauty. At 6’3″ and 225 lbs, Balboni was built like a tank. The bat looked like a toothpick in his hands and when he saw a fastball that was to his liking, the ball was either going to end up out of the yard or in the catcher’s mitt. A fan favorite wherever he played, Balboni was the picturesque cleanup hitter of the 80s. With a career .229 AVG and .293 OBP, Balboni was not a “moneyball” type player by a stretch of the imagination. But the 80s were a different time in baseball and Balboni fit the mold in his day. The power hitting first baseman/DH. A one-dimensional player (home runs and strikeouts), but a great deal of fun to watch for the fans.
Today’s game is built on young, athletic players with multiple-tools. As we
have left the steroid era, MLB teams are shifting towards teams built on strong pitching, defense and speed. The 1B/DH types like David Ortiz and Travis Hafner are starting to disappear, as American League teams shift to using the designated hitter spot to rotate players rather than employing a full-time DH. As a result, we are unlikely to see many more Bye Bye Balboni’s in the major leagues again. Valentino Pascucci was the closest player that I could think of that resembled a modern-day Balboni. But in today’s game, Pascucci has barely received a cup of coffee at the majors, while Balboni enjoyed eleven seasons in the big leagues.
Bye Bye Balboni got to live the major league dream. He was a second round pick of the Yankees in 1978 and played five seasons in New York. Balboni was also quite a legend in his day in the minor leagues, assembling 239 career minor league home runs, together with 930 strike outs. Balboni was named MVP of the Florida State League in 1979 and 1980 in the Southern League. Today, Bye Bye Balboni continues his career as a coach, with different organizations in the minors. You can learn more about Steve Balboni by visiting his website, http://stevebalboni.com.
One of the players of his generation that will stick out in our minds forever, we thank Bye Bye Balboni for the home runs he hit and the excitement he brought to the game during every one of his at-bats. While the game has evolved to new levels, there is a part of us that will miss the burly sluggers in the game in the Bye Bye Balboni mold that are no longer with us. Thank you for the memories Steve and for the home runs!
If you have a favorite Steve Balboni moment or story, we would love to hear from you. Please leave your comments at the bottom of this article.
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E-MAILBAG: Ask the Reports, Wednesday August 10th
Thank you for reading the E-mailbag. Please send all your questions to mlbreports@gmail.com and please include your first name and City/Country.
We will be compiling a list of your questions from our e-mailbag and posting the responses on Wednesdays.
Wednesday August 10, 2011
Q: Once Anthony Rendon signs with the Nationals, do you see him moving to 2B? What’s your best guess? From Flips, parts unknown.
MLB reports: The Rice product, drafted 6th overall by the Nationals this year is likely to sign with the Nationals by the August 15th deadline. In the unlikely event that he does not sign, then the Nationals would get a compensation pick next draft. But luckily for Washington, Rendon is expected to join the club this year. With Ryan Zimmerman entrenched at 3rd base, many people have speculated at which position Rendon will end up. I have heard 2nd base tossed around, but the smart money is 1st base. Adam La Roche is a temporary solution for the squad and not the long-term answer. The Nationals appear to be set up the middle with Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond. Rendon’s bat has never been a question. To get him quickly into the lineup, expect the Nationals to move him to 1st base right away after being signed. The outfield is another option, but more of a last resort.
Q: Will this be the year that the Texas Rangers win the World Series? From Anne, Dallas.
MLB reports: If the Rangers had been able to sign Cliff Lee, my answer would have been yes. But they did not and the Halladay-Lee combination will lead the Phillies to victory in the fall in my opinion. Don’t get me wrong, the Rangers have an excellent team. An offense led by Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and company. C.J. Wilson as the ace. The bullpen trio of Neftali Feliz, Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. The Rangers can do it all. But firstly, just to make it to the World Series the Rangers will need to pass the Yankees and Red Sox. Even then, the Phillies if they end up as their opponent will be tough to beat. The Phillies have a solid offense core of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Hunter Pence. The bullpen has been steady, led by closer Ryan Madson. But it is the starting pitching that will see the Phillies through. With all the roadblocks in the Rangers path, I see them as a strong contender but not necessarily the favorites to win the World Series this year.
Q: Why is it legal to bulldoze a catcher when he clearly has the ball, but not a fielder at any other base? From G Homan, Ohio.
MLB reports: You will have to check the rule book on this one. It is just as legal to take out a catcher as it is an infielder during play, but it depends on the nature of the play. A baserunner cannot run outside of the baselines to purposely run over an infielder or a catcher. But in the course of running the bases, runners can collide with an infielder as they would a catcher. Now the runners cannot purposely injure a defensive player, like using the spikes or an elbow to the face. But to reach base safely, a strong slide or collision is a part of the game and can happen at second base the same way it can at home. Despite cries to change the rules after the Buster Posey injury, strong and aggressive base running remains a vital part of the game.
Q: Will the Phillies get an arm for their bullpen through waivers? From Miguel, Philadelphia.
MLB reports: Last time I checked, your team was stacked fairly well at the back-end of their pitching staff. Ryan Madson as closer. Brad Lidge, Antonio Bastardo, Jose Contreras (when healthy) and Kyle Kendrick. I wouldn’t be too worried about the pen. Some people are calling for Heath Bell still to go to the Phillies. But with the waiver process in effect, I can’t see Bell falling to the Phillies before getting snapped up earlier on waivers. Another arm or two might out there, but nothing too special. The Phillies most likely go with what they got and that is still much above most other pens in baseball.
Q: If you look at the numbers, you will find out that Indianapolis, IN and San Antonio, TX are the most populous cities without a MLB team. I would think size of market would drive who gets the next teams. It is obvious that MLB is financially doing really well. I would keep two leagues, and give the expansion teams to the AL, since they are the league with only 14 teams.
American League:
West Midwest East Atlantic
LA Angels Rangers Indianapolis Yankees
Oakland A’s KC Royals Tigers Red Sox
San Antonio Twins Indians Orioles
Mariners White Sox Rays Blue Jays
National League:
West Midwest East Atlantic
Dodgers Colorado Rockies Chicago Cubs NY Mets
Padres Houston Astros Cincinnati Reds Phil Phillies
Giants St. Louis Cardinals Atlanta Braves Florida Marlins
Dbacks Brewers Pitt Pirates Wash Nationals
I tried to used a US map,and place teams in divisions according to how the line up East and West. From Tom, Orange CA.
MLB reports: Very interesting alignment Tom. Indianapolis and San Antonio have been two very popular destinations for our readers in selecting the next two expansion MLB cities. There has been resistance by Bud Selig to further expand baseball. However, as discussed in our previous articles on the subject, baseball needs to add two more teams to balance out the leagues to 16-teams a piece. Also realignment is in order to create better geographical rivalries and even out the number of teams per division. So far, the most that we have heard is that baseball is planning to realign by moving one NL team to the AL by 2013 (as the 2012 regular season schedule has already been prepared in draft format). The problem with the 15/15 split is that an interleague game would need to be played most days, which does not seem like a worthwhile proposition. Houston by most accounts is the team most likely to move. So while we appreciate your thoughts, the expansion and radical realignment ideas are unlikely to happen… yet. If and when they do, we would like to see more shifting of teams to create new excitement and rivalries in baseball. But the framework you have laid down is a very good start. Thank you for sending it in.
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Remembering Hideki Irabu: Japanese MLB Pitcher and Link to Donnie Moore
Sunday August 7, 2011
MLB reports: Hideki Irabu was born on May 5, 1969 in Hirara, Okinawa. Irabu played in Japan (Nippon Professional Baseball) from 1988-1996 and then again from 2003-2004. In North America, we will most remember Irabu as a member of the New York Yankees from 1997-1999. Irabu also played with the Montreal Expos from 2000-2001 and the Texas Rangers in 2002. The baseball world sadly lost Hideki Irabu on July 27, 2011, an apparent victim of suicide. A loss to the baseball world at the tender age of 42, Irabu was survived by a wife and two young children.
The story of Hideki Irabu is well-known in the baseball community. He had his contract purchased by the San Diego Padres from his Japanese club, the Chiba Lotte Marines. Irabu refused to sign with the San Diego Padres and stated his intention of only playing for the New York Yankees. The Yankees were able to swing a deal for Irabu’s services, for a package of players including Ruben Rivera and cash. Hideki Irabu ended up making his debut with the Yankees on July 10, 1997 and for his career pitched in 74 games for the Yankees over 3 seasons (64 starts). Irabu won back-to-back World Series rings in New York in 1998 and 1999. He was then traded to the Montreal Expos for Ted Lilly, Jake Westbrook and Christian Parker. A good haul for the Yankees considering the career spans of Lilly and Westbrook (had they stayed in New York). Irabu then signed with the Texas Rangers as a free agent and played out his last MLB season as a closer before returning to Japan to resume his NPB career. After a stint in independent baseball, Irabu apparently had the intention of returning to Major League Baseball, but alas a comeback was not in the cards. Reports have indicated that Irabu hung himself in his California home, with autopsy results to follow. Today we look at the career of Hideki Irabu and the road that led to his untimely passing this year.
When joining the New York Yankees in 1997, Hideki Irabu was labelled the “Japanese Nolan Ryan”. By the time he left New York, he was stuck with the moniker given to him by team owner George Steinbrenner “the fat toad”. Looking at Irabu’s MLB numbers, he unfortunately fell short of the Nolan Ryan comparisons:
| Year | Tm | W | L | ERA | SV | BB | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 | NYY | 5 | 4 | 7.09 | 0 | 20 | 56 | 1.669 |
| 1998 | NYY | 13 | 9 | 4.06 | 0 | 76 | 126 | 1.295 |
| 1999 | NYY | 11 | 7 | 4.84 | 0 | 46 | 133 | 1.335 |
| 2000 | MON | 2 | 5 | 7.24 | 0 | 14 | 42 | 1.665 |
| 2001 | MON | 0 | 2 | 4.86 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 1.500 |
| 2002 | TEX | 3 | 8 | 5.74 | 16 | 16 | 30 | 1.426 |
| 6 Seasons | 34 | 35 | 5.15 | 16 | 175 | 405 | 1.405 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 11 | 12 | 5.15 | 5 | 58 | 134 | 1.405 | |
| NYY (3 yrs) | 29 | 20 | 4.80 | 0 | 142 | 315 | 1.362 | |
| MON (2 yrs) | 2 | 7 | 6.69 | 0 | 17 | 60 | 1.626 | |
| TEX (1 yr) | 3 | 8 | 5.74 | 16 | 16 | 30 | 1.426 | |
| AL (4 yrs) | 32 | 28 | 4.90 | 16 | 158 | 345 | 1.369 | |
| NL (2 yrs) | 2 | 7 | 6.69 | 0 | 17 | 60 | 1.626 | |
Injuries played a part in Irabu’s MLB career. Irabu had both knee and shoulder surgeries after leaving the Yankees and blood clots ultimately led to his
retirement from Major League Baseball following the 2002 season. Bouts of heavy drinking, depression and rage also factored into Irabu’s career. But despite all the distractions and factors that led to his unravelling in baseball, Irabu did show some glimpses of promise. In addition to the two world series titles he earned in New York (despite playing in only one career post season game in 1999, giving up 7 ER in 4.2 IP to the Red Sox in the ALCS), Irabu had his best numbers during his time with the Yankees. He earned both of his career shutouts in New York. His best statistical season was 1998, where he went 13-9 for the Yankees, with a 4.06 ERA and 1.295 WHIP. As a closer for the Rangers in 2002, Irabu earned 16 saves. That unfortunately went together with a 3-8 record, 5.74 ERA and 1.426 WHIP. For a proud young man who fought hard on and off the field, his major league career was taken from him much too early. Despite attempts at a comeback, we never did see Hideki Irabu in a MLB uniform again after the 2002 season.
In our society, it is much too easy to write off the passing of another human being, especially a celebrity, without considering the person behind the name. Granted Irabu faced many demons in his life and career. But I think some people feel the need to label a player like Irabu an alcoholic and rageaholic and simply write him off when learning of his passing. That is a tragedy in my estimation. When I learned of Irabu’s passing, my immediate thoughts led to Donnie Moore. For those of you not familiar, Moore was the Angels pitcher that gave up the tying and winning runs to the Red Sox in game five of the 1986 ALCS. Many critics pointed to Moore as the reason that the Red Sox ended up beating the Angels and advancing to the World Series. Moore was a popular target of Angels fans the following seasons and ended up shooting his wife and taking his own life. A tragic story in itself, Moore like Irabu suffered from deep depression. But without analyzing and comparing both men too much, I believe that it was the name calling and the reputations of each men that contributed greatly to their respective passings. Victories and failures take place on baseball diamonds each and every day. Moore in the playoffs and Irabu in New York, suffered their failures on some of the biggest baseball stages that you can find. Had their losses been forgotten and each man allowed to continue fresh, they may have enjoyed longer and productive careers in baseball. They may have also been able to enjoy their personal lives to a greater extent and still been with us today. But the stigma of failure which was likely reminded to Moore and Irabu for most of their last days on this earth, was likely too much for each to bear.
Hideki Irabu, being of Japanese descent, was a very proud man. Respect and reputation are considered very important in Japanese circles and criticism is
often not taken very well. Irabu, like Ichiro Suzuki after him, had a lifelong battle with the Japanese media. Being of mixed descent, Irabu rarely discussed his background which was a difficult subject for him. Before coming to North America, the Japanese media labelled him with very strong nicknames, including the “Shuwozenegga” and “Kurage”, which translates to jellyfish, for the sting of his pitches. From there, being called the Japanese Nolan Ryan came with a set of expectations that Irabu could never live up to. If that was not bad enough, the “fat toad” comment by George Steinbrenner stuck with him to his very last days. It was my understanding that Irabu through most of his MLB career could not be in any baseball cities, especially New York without hearing some reference to the toad comment. For a proud individual that did not take criticism well, such a nickname probably stuck within him like a dagger. By no means do I directly blame Steinbrenner for Irabu’s suicide. Far from it, as Steinbrenner lately expressed remorse for his comments and publicly apologized for his remarks. But the choice of media and select fans to continue to remind Irabu of the nickname most likely helped contribute to his passing. We cannot bring Hideki Irabu or Donnie Moore back. But we can learn from their passings and help other athletes avoid similar fates.
I link the taunting of Irabu and Moore before him in public and media outlets to bullying in schools. We have read stories of children and teenagers being harassed in schools and outlets like e-mails and Facebook to the point that they are driven to taking their own lives. Words do hurt and a bully can be charged criminally. For those people that went up to Hideki Irabu in a restaurant and called him a “fat toad”, or approached Donnie Moore in a shopping mall and called him a “choke” and “failure”, think about the result of those actions in retrospect. Since athletes are in the public eye, that leads to many people feeling a sense of entitlement to judge and criticize players as they see fit. Irabu by earning over $15 million over 6 seasons in Major League Baseball, was apparently fair game as a target to all forms of criticism that people chose to throw his way. I have no issue with judging an athlete’s numbers on the field. Analysis and discussion is what sports is all about. But once we start with the name calling and viciousness, I feel that a line needs to be drawn.
Donnie Moore and Hideki Irabu chose to become professional athletes and were in the public eye. That does mean that their wins and losses will be known to millions and discussed and analyzed by many. But sports can go to extreme levels. Homes vandalized. Children harassed. Even murders. Critics and extreme “fans’ can go to dangerous levels in criticizing athletes. While extreme situations, they do take place all too often. These instances stem from bullying, which is not acceptable in schools with children but allowable in public forums with public figures. We as members of society need to draw the line of what is acceptable in reviewing and criticizing athletes. Although they choose to be in the public light, they are still human beings with real feelings and emotions. Hopefully more people will remember that the next time they hurl disparaging remarks at an athlete, whether it be in a stadium, restaurant, radio talk show or newspaper. Words do hurt and in the case of Donnie Moore and Hideki Irabu, they can also kill.
Donnie Moore, if you weren’t aware, played professional baseball for 13 seasons for 5 different teams. He had a career 3.67 ERA. His best season was 1985, where he has a 8-8 record, 1.92 ERA, 31 saves and 1.087 WHIP. He followed up the following season with 21 saves. He was an all-star in 1985, finishing 6th in A.L. MVP voting and 7th in A.L. CY Young voting. Moore also pitched two perfect innings for the Braves in the 1982 NLCS. But most people don’t remember those numbers. When they hear the name Donnie Moore, they think of the 1986 ALCS defeat and suicide. Hideki Irabu has now met a similar fate. Many people do not remember that Irabu was the man responsible for the Japanese posting system. By refusing to sign with the Padres, MLB helped institute the current posting system for Japanese players to come to North America. If not for Irabu, the entire system of transferring NPB players to MLB could be much different today. Irabu won two World Series rings and enjoyed some success in North America. Before that, Irabu enjoyed great success in Japan on the baseball diamond. But when people reflect on his passing, the main words that are spoken now are “fat toad” and suicide. Even in death, Irabu and Moore continue to be criticized and bullied. That is the saddest reality of all.
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Jair Jurrjens: Braves Ace of the Future or Trade Candidate?
Wednesday July 20, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): Now that the trade deadline is fast approaching, teams in contention are scrambling to find the pieces they desperately need to reach the playoffs. Teams that are out of contention are scouring other teams’ minor league affiliates in search of suitable trade partners. One man who is terribly busy fielding on calls on one of his biggest talents is the GM of the Atlanta Braves, Frank Wren. Opposing GMs have coveted his ace pitcher, Jair Jurrjens over the past few years. But now that Jurrjens has developed into a solid dependable pitcher who has exceeded his potential, Wren’s phone will be ringing right up until the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline.
Why Atlanta should hold on to their ace
Jair Jurrjens is young and controllable with an inexpensive contract. He is an inning eater, and a dependable arm that will give 6+ innings per game. Jurrjens is in his fourth full season, with the key variable that many people forget is that he is only 25 years old. At the halfway mark of this season, Jurrjens has a 12-3 record with a sparkling 2.26 ERA. Jair also induces a ton of ground balls, with a GB% of 48.2. When a guy can throw strikes consistently, it makes it much easier to be successful. Three walks per nine innings is a pretty good career mark, and he has seemingly improved almost every year, as Jurrjens currently sits at a 2.10 BB/9 for 2011. A young, controllable ace that is continually improving might be something that the Braves want to hold onto. Further, the Braves should even consider giving a long-term extension to Jurrjens given what he means to the ballclub.
Why Atlanta should trade Jurrjens
Why would a contending team trade their ace, you might ask? Well, a guy like Jurrjens might be overachieving for a few reasons. First of all, the velocity on his fastball has dipped every season since his rookie campaign. His average fastball was once 93 mph, whereas it sits at 89 now. Now this could mean a couple of things, such as he has learned how to pitch and doesn’t need the velocity. However, his extra reliance on his change-up and slider; each of them up in usage about 3% over previous years, tells me that he knows his fastball isn’t quite as effective. Jurrjens doesn’t strike many guys out, and there is almost no way that he can maintain a 4.1% homerun per fly ball rate. His xFIP is exactly a run and a half higher than his ERA at 3.76, so a measure of his performance has been attributed to luck. Numbers can be sometimes be deceiving and in Jurrjens case, he might not be as good as his statistics appear to show. Sometimes its good to maximize a return when the market is at its peak and Jurjjens may very well be sitting at the top of his ceiling of potential. Otherwise, if Jurrjens does regress, he value will never be higher than it is at the moment.
Which teams could trade for Jurrjens
If the Detroit Tigers are willing to give up a ton of prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez, I believe they would do the same for Jurrjens. Same goes with the Red Sox and Yankees. Detroit has at least kicked the tires on many starting pitchers, including Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, and Jeremy Guthrie. I see Jurrjens as an upgrade over those pitchers, so it would take a decent package to steal him away. The Rockies covet four top prospects for Jimenez, so I don’t see why the Braves wouldn’t try to get at least three top prospects for Jurrjens. He may not have the electric stuff that Ubaldo has, but he certainly has a track record of success.
Another fit to trade for Jurrjens that may fly under the radar could be the Indians. Mitch Talbot and Fausto Carmona have
underperformed, and they desperately need an upgrade if they are to contend. This could cause a bidding war for Jurrjens. I can see righty Alex White, lefty Drew Pomeranz and outfielder Nick Weglarz being involved in such a deal. Prospects Jacob Turner (RHP), Andy Oliver (LHP) and Nick Castellanos (3B) may be included in a potential deal with Detroit.
In the NL, if the St. Louis Cardinals decide to make a push in the wide open Central Division, they may be looking at starting pitching help. Kyle McLellan and Jake Westbrook have both struggled, so it could be a possibility they get in the mix. Third baseman Zack Cox and starting pitcher Shelby Miller are possible candidates to be moved in such a scenario.
Verdict
Atlanta doesn’t appear to be actively shopping Jurrjens, but it would be in their best interest to at least gauge the interest of other teams. The Braves could get a return for Jurrjens that would be impossible to refuse. With some of the prospects named, the Braves could still contend, and restock their system for years to come. Until then, we expect Jurrjens to remain a Brave unless Frank Wren gets blown away a trade proposal. With the active trade winds blowing this year and numerous contending teams desperate for starting pitching help, anything is possible.
Editor’s Note: Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. Rob was selected from the many candidates who applied to write for MLB reports. Please feel free to leave comments and to welcome Rob aboard. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Carlos Beltran to the Giants: Mets Likely to Trade Slugger to San Fran
Tuesday July 19, 2011
MLB reports: The MLB rumor mill is working overtime as the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31st quickly approaches. With less than two weeks to go, the speculation is heating up as to which players will be changing uniforms. Francisco Rodriguez is already a Brewer and Jeff Keppinger was just traded to the Giants. But rumors persist that the Mets and Giants are not finished with their activity. With both superstars Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran eligible for free agency at the end of the season, talk is that one or both players will be moved out of New York. With the possibility of the Mets trying to retain Reyes, the most likely scenario is Carlos Beltran changing addresses. At the center of the speculation is the San Francisco Giants. The defending World Series champions have been simply atrocious this year offensively. With their cleanup hitter Buster Posey out for the season, the team cannot afford to miss out on the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes.
The Giants were very fortunate to win the World Series last year. The playoffs are a tough road and requires the perseverance normally of a balanced team to make it to the end. The Giants, while solid in the pitching department, were essentially using smoke and mirrors to score runs last year. The team relied on the likes of Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Freddy Sanchez on offense. While useful role players, these players are not the big sluggers that are supposed to win championships. Now with Buster Posey out, the Giants are forced to rely on Eli Whiteside, Miguel Tejada, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell and company to score the team’s runs. Possessing one of the best, if not the best pitching staff in baseball, the Giants can ill-afford to limit itself offensively and essentially waste such strong pitching. To defend its championship, the Giants will have no choice but to beef up their offense.
Carlos Beltran has been one of the most consistent hitters in the game over the course of his career. Taking a look at his numbers, we see a consistently high level of production:
| Year | Tm | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | KCR | 58 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 3 | .276 |
| 1999 | KCR | 663 | 112 | 194 | 22 | 108 | 27 | .293 |
| 2000 | KCR | 372 | 49 | 92 | 7 | 44 | 13 | .247 |
| 2001 | KCR | 617 | 106 | 189 | 24 | 101 | 31 | .306 |
| 2002 | KCR | 637 | 114 | 174 | 29 | 105 | 35 | .273 |
| 2003 | KCR | 521 | 102 | 160 | 26 | 100 | 41 | .307 |
| 2004 | TOT | 599 | 121 | 160 | 38 | 104 | 42 | .267 |
| 2004 | KCR | 266 | 51 | 74 | 15 | 51 | 14 | .278 |
| 2004 | HOU | 333 | 70 | 86 | 23 | 53 | 28 | .258 |
| 2005 | NYM | 582 | 83 | 155 | 16 | 78 | 17 | .266 |
| 2006 | NYM | 510 | 127 | 140 | 41 | 116 | 18 | .275 |
| 2007 | NYM | 554 | 93 | 153 | 33 | 112 | 23 | .276 |
| 2008 | NYM | 606 | 116 | 172 | 27 | 112 | 25 | .284 |
| 2009 | NYM | 308 | 50 | 100 | 10 | 48 | 11 | .325 |
| 2010 | NYM | 220 | 21 | 56 | 7 | 27 | 3 | .255 |
| 2011 | NYM | 328 | 54 | 94 | 14 | 59 | 3 | .287 |
| 14 Seasons | 6575 | 1160 | 1855 | 294 | 1121 | 292 | .282 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 621 | 110 | 175 | 28 | 106 | 28 | .282 | |
| KCR (7 yrs) | 3134 | 546 | 899 | 123 | 516 | 164 | .287 | |
| NYM (7 yrs) | 3108 | 544 | 870 | 148 | 552 | 100 | .280 | |
| HOU (1 yr) | 333 | 70 | 86 | 23 | 53 | 28 | .258 | |
| NL (8 yrs) | 3441 | 614 | 956 | 171 | 605 | 128 | .278 | |
| AL (7 yrs) | 3134 | 546 | 899 | 123 | 516 | 164 | .287 | |
His resume speaks for itself. Beltran is a 1999 AL Rookie of the Year. He has won four Gold Gloves for his defensive work in the outfield. He won two silver slugger awards. A lifetime .282 AVG, .360 OBP and .495 SLG. In 2004 he hit the magical 30/30 mark (30 home runs, 30 stolen bases), and was actually two home runs short of 40/40. For the most part, Beltran in his prime could do it all. Hit home runs, hit for average, steal bases, catch and throw the ball like few players could. One of the few true five-tool players in the game. The aberrations we find in Beltran’s statistics were the last two years. Due to various injuries, particularly knee woes, Carlos Beltran was forced to miss much of the last two seasons and saw his production sharply decline. Now healthy and extremely motivated, Beltran has come back in a big way.
Beltran played in his sixth All-Star game this year in Arizona. While he rarely steals bases these days, the rest of Beltran’s game has returned as shown by his numbers. The only issue surrounding Beltran is whether his knee will hold up for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. From there, a team will need to determine his long-term health and abilities in awarding him a free agent contract. But from all indications, Beltran is a player that can still play ball at the highest level when healthy. An ideal fit for the Giants that lineup that desperately needs run production.
How bad has the Giants offense been in 2011? Going into tonight, the Giants as a team are hitting .243, with a .309 OBP and .363 SLG.
The team has collectively hit 63 home runs and scored 356 runs. Yet somehow the team continues to sit in first place in the NL West, 3.5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks. If not for Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Brian Wilson and the rest of the Giants pitching staff, the Giants would be in the basement of the division. The run of the Giants over the past two seasons has been incredible, but clearly linked to its pitching. To support its pitchers and put runs on the board, the Giants have to step up and beef up its offense. While Jeff Keppinger is a useful player, he will not be enough to get the job done. Rather, the Giants need to acquire a bomber, the way the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday a couple of years ago in their playoff run. Or closer to home, when the Astros acquired Carlos Beltran in 2004. Beltran hit an incredible 8 home runs during the Astros playoff drive that year. Coincidentally, Beltran was an impending free agent that year as well. Fast forward to 2011 and the very same Carlos Beltran is available. Having a fantastic campaign, Beltran in 2011 has hit .287 to-date, with 14 home runs, league leading 28 doubles, with a .381 OBP and .512 SLG. Again during a free agency year. Definite playoff calibre numbers and a perfect fit out west in San Francisco.
The Giants and Carlos Beltran are well suited for one another. San Francisco needs a strong cleanup hitter. Carlos Beltran wants to compete for a World Series championship and boost his free agency stock for one more prime contract. The odds of getting a ring don’t get any better than joining the defending world champions. Some experts have speculated that Beltran may not waive his no-trade protection to join the Giants. I am not buying that theory. The Giants are a terrific organization to play for, with highly regarded management, a fantastic ballpark in a beautiful city, and are one of baseball’s most historical and treasured teams. Beltran would look fantastic in a Giants uniform. What better way to showcase his abilities and earn his last free agency contract than by playing for a contender and fighting for a World Series championship.
Remember 1994, the year that Beltran was traded from Kansas City to Houston and played like a man possessed in nearly single-handedly leading the Astros to the World Series. That performance, combined with his numbers to-date, earned Beltran that off-season a 7-year, $119 million contract from the Mets. Now Beltran is on the cusp of free agency again and has the potential to “earn his pay” so to speak with the Giants in the same manner that he did with the Astros in 1994. With Scott Boras as his agent, Beltran will surely receive the advice that playoff performance equals free agency dollars.
The Giants will have a choice in making a pitch to the Mets for Carlos Beltran. They will either have to absorb the majority of the contract and provide fairly decent prospects, or have the Mets absorb a large chunk of money and offer 1-2 elite prospects in return. The Giants are well stocked in the minors and have excellent pitching at the major league level. The Mets may request Jonathan Sanchez off the major league roster or a combination of minor leaguers from the farm. Outfielder Thomas Neal and pitcher Zack Wheeler could be on the Mets wish-list. Or perhaps the Giants will be able to give up a package of lower level prospects and not lose their top prospects and major league level. The decision will boil down to the money involved and players offered by other teams in trade packages.
At the end of the day, much like the Yankees must acquire Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies (see our recent feature), the Giants have no choice but to trade for Carlos Beltran. The Yankees cannot afford to waste their superior offense without enough top-level pitching and the Giants in turn, need to surround their talented pitching staff with consistent run production. It is a lot of pressure to have a team win 2-1, 3-1 games night-in and night-out. Carlos Beltran has proven that he can carry a team on his back when he is on his game. Well, in 2011 he is definitely playing at his highest level in years. Beltran needs the Giants for his next contract and a chance for a ring, while the Giants need his bat and glove to increase their chances of a championship. The perfect marriage, expect Beltran to be a Giant by the end of July. This acquisition makes too much sense for the Giants and Brian Sabean will continue to stock his team on route to a possible back-to-back World Series run for the Giants. Carlos Beltran to the Giants. Not a question of if, just a question of when.
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Ubaldo Jimenez to the Yankees? Rockies May Move Ace to the Bronx
Saturday July 16, 2011
MLB reports: As an unbelievable as it may seem, there has been talk in baseball circles that the Rockies are taking calls on their ace pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez. Start after start, game after game last year, Jimenez for the majority of 2010 was as unhittable as they come. Despite coming back down to earth in the 2nd half, Jimenez last year appeared in his first All-Star game and finished 3rd in the NL CY Young voting. He also pitched the very first no-hitter in Rockies history on April 17, 2010. With a young Rockies team that was expected to contend in 2011, the 27-year old Dominican Jimenez was expected to anchor the team. Now sitting with a 45-49 record, 8.5 games out of 1st in the NL West, the Rockies are on the fence as to whether they still have playoff aspirations this year. Further, the team’s brass needs to decide whether Jimenez is a part of those aspirations and future playoff runs. Media outlets have speculated that the Yankees are quietly making a run at Jimenez. There is a strong probability the trade could happen, but in my estimation, the Rockies would be making a colossal error if they do.
There is no denying the strength and ability of Ubaldo Jimenez. As the pitcher has slowly improved every year, especially noting his strong 2009 and 2010 campaigns, the hurler clearly has a world of potential. Taking a look at his numbers, the results speak for themselves:
| Year | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 0 | 0 | 3.52 | 7.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1.043 |
| 2007 | 4 | 4 | 4.28 | 82.0 | 70 | 37 | 68 | 1.305 |
| 2008 | 12 | 12 | 3.99 | 198.2 | 182 | 103 | 172 | 1.435 |
| 2009 | 15 | 12 | 3.47 | 218.0 | 183 | 85 | 198 | 1.229 |
| 2010 | 19 | 8 | 2.88 | 221.2 | 164 | 92 | 214 | 1.155 |
| 2011 | 5 | 8 | 4.08 | 110.1 | 101 | 43 | 99 | 1.305 |
| 6 Seasons | 55 | 44 | 3.60 | 838.1 | 705 | 363 | 754 | 1.274 |
| 162 Game Avg. | 14 | 11 | 3.60 | 212 | 178 | 92 | 191 | 1.274 |
With pitching at such a shortage, many baseball analysts are scratching their heads as to how the Rockies could possibly think about trading Jimenez. The San Francisco Giants proved last year that the World Series could be won almost exclusively on the strength of pitching. Tim Lincecum. Matt Cain. Madison Bumgarner. Jonathan Sanchez. The Giants had so many weapons to throw against its opponents every night and good young pitching at the end of day beats good hitting much of the time. The Rockies, ravaged by injuries and inconsistent performances, are unlikely to reach the postseason this year. But in the management of the team, the present and future must be considered. Look at Felix Hernandez on Seattle, Roy Halladay on the Phillies and Lincecum on the Giants. Every team that is trying to build a winner needs a stud pitcher at the top of its rotation. Jimenez is that guy for the Rockies and losing him on the roster will be a hole that will be difficult, to impossible to fill.
So given the positives that Jimenez brings to the table, the issue remains how and why the Rockies could possibly consider moving him. There are a couple of main reasons in my estimation. Part of the equation is the performance of Jimenez this season. While he has been good, Jimenez for the most part has not been great. His record this year is far off from his most recent seasons, despite a strong rebound in his last few starts. Given his inconsistencies in 2011, the Rockies may be getting a little worried and looking to sell high before Jimenez starts to decline and/or injured. But given his strong resume to date, young age and rebound recently, I would like to think the Rockies are more intelligent than that. Players have their ups and downs, at all levels. It happens. Without a larger body of work for reference, it is almost impossible to reason that Jimenez is on his way down. His recent numbers tend to show otherwise. So while Jimenez may not be the same pitcher that we saw in early 2010, he is still the ace of the team.
So why the reports of trade talk with the Yankees? I will give you two words. Cliff Lee. The same Cliff Lee that was all set to be traded last year from the
Mariners to the Yankees in a package including Jesus Montero. The deal was completed to the level that major media outlets were announcing the trade as fact. As the story goes on that one, the Mariners played the Yankees against the Rangers and took a package from Texas built around prospect Justin Smoak at the very last-minute. The Yankees were fuming to the level that they contacted the higher-ups in Seattle to complain about the conduct of their GM, Jack Zduriencik. The fallout was the Rangers making it to the World Series and the Yankees left at the altar without their prize. As a further dagger, Lee in his decision to sign with the Rangers or Yankees this past offseason, ended up going to the Phillies at the last-minute. Again, the mystery team coming at the last second out of the woods and the Yankees were left standing with egg on their face.
Do not underestimate the New York Yankees. They are the strongest and one of the proudest teams in baseball. The Yankees and their fans do not like to be left disappointed in the constant search for top talent. With Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia sitting in their rotation, the Yankees are clearly itching to make a move to bolster their rotation. While names like Jeremy Guthrie, Derek Lowe and Bronson Arroyo being thrown around, it starts to shed some light as to where the Jimenez talk is coming from. This is the Yankees and they do not like shopping at the Ford dealership. This is a team built on Mercedes and BMW’s. The problem is that the top cars, i.e. ace pitchers, are not readily available. After making runs at Felix Hernandez and Francisco Liriano, the Yankees are still in search of a strong #2 to compliment ace CC Sabathia. Considering that Sabathia can opt out of his contract during the coming offseason and possibly leave New York, the pressure is even greater to land a top starting pitcher. From all the names that have been tossed around, the one that makes the most sense is Ubaldo Jimenez.
When Jimenez is on his game, he is as Cliff Lee-like as you can get. Jimenez is a horse that has the potential to pitch a complete game shutout almost every game out. This is the type of numbers that the Yankees are looking for. Rather than waiting to what comes in free agency, the Yankees are trying to hedge their bets and make a run now. Any package for Jimenez will be built around uber-prospect Jesus Montero. Considering his strong bat, Montero could move from catcher to first base to replace the aging Todd Helton. The Rockies still have faith in their own young catcher, Chris Iannetta, who has taken longer to develop than expected. Montero would be great insurance and an almost guaranteed monster bat, in addition to the other prospects that would be headed to Colorado. A win-win for both teams if it happens, considering the bodies that would be moving as part of the trade. But still not quite if you consider the value of Jimenez to the Rockies.
Other teams will sniffing around Jimenez as well. The Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, Angels and Rangers could all be considered in the mix. Jimenez would not come cheap and if the Rockies are smart, they will auction him off to the highest bidder. At the end of the day, this is a trade that the Yankees have to make. With little to no other options on the market, the Yankees have to overpay for Jimenez or risk failing to win a World Series despite the highest payroll in business. The Yankees lost out twice on Cliff Lee and need to do everything in their power to land an equivalent pitcher to their fold. While Ricky Romero or Jered Weaver would be nice acquisitions, realistically neither one will be made available by their respective teams. With Carlos Zambrano overpriced and inconsistent and Johan Santana a question mark for the season, at this point it is Jimenez or bust for the Yankees.
In considering this trade from a Rockies perspective, think how long the organization suffered from a pitching perspective. Despite always having strong hitting, the Rockies as an organization have been challenged to develop and maintain reliable pitching. Now that the Rockies have an ace in place, the team should be focusing on building around Jimenez rather than moving him. If the Rockies build their core of hitters and fail to have a deep and consistent starting rotation, the team will mean little come playoff time. The team will simply fall back into old habits and fail to adapt to the new Major League Baseball. With the steroid era past us, baseball is built around pitching and defense now for the most part. The Rockies, like every other team, needs good young pitching to contend. Jimenez has the potential to give them a high level of pitching for at least the next five years. If the Rockies feel they have a chance to contend during that time, they must hold onto him or risk setting themselves back even further.
Knowing that this is a trade that Yankees must make and the Rockies should pass on, the final question is whether this trade will happen. My heart says no,
but my brain says yes. Despite all the reasons that the Rockies should hold onto Jimenez, it appears in my estimation that the Yankees will make an offer that Colorado cannot refuse. In fighting for World Series titles in New York, all necessary resources have to be acquired at any cost. Considering that the Yankees will include Montero and 2-3 more top prospects, the Rockies will have a hard time saying no. Perhaps the Yankees will include a couple of top pitching prospects in the package that will allow for a smoother transition for Colorado. But the reality is, that while prospects are intriguing and desirable, they are far from a sure thing. For every Derek Jeter that is drafted, developed and becomes a future Hall of Fame player, there are 1000’s of Todd Van Poppel clones that come highly touted and burn out just as quick. Ubaldo Jimenez has the experience and numbers that are proven. While I am always skeptical of pitching, based on injury risk (see Stephen Strasburg), the potential risk in this case by keeping Jimenez is worth the reward of the potential for future playoffs. This will be the one case where I advocate that a team hold onto their starting pitcher rather than cash in for prospects. But it is also the case where there is extreme speculation and rumors and I foresee the trade occurring. The Yankees are the Yankees for a reason. They usually get what they want. They want Ubaldo Jimenez and before July is done, he very well could be in pinstripes.
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