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Cleveland Indians 2011: A Recap of The Season and 2012 Preview
Sunday October 2, 2011
Jeff P (Guest Writer – MLB reports): This was a long year for Cleveland Indians fans: From the acquisitions of Ubaldo Jimenez and Kosuke Fukudome, to falling in and out of playoff contention. The truth is that this whole year can be seen as one large accomplishment for the tribe.
The beginning of the year started with a bright future. The fans waited until June 27th, when the team decided to bring up one of their most hyped prospect, Lonnie Chisenhall. A little less than a month later, Jason Kipnis was added to the mix and the Indians started to receive even greater enthusiasm from their fans. The prospects were a large bright spot for the tribe, as 2011 was considered the hopeful end of the Indians slide of mediocrity (which lasted from 2008-2010).
Kipnis was a bright spot in the clubhouse, as August 10th represented the exclamation point in his career on the “Road to the Big Leagues.” Kipnis had a huge day, smashing five hits, including a home run and scoring 4 runs, leading the Indians to a 10-3 win.
The trade deadline in 2011 included a massive deal for the Indians as buyers rather than sellers, leading to controversy throughout Cleveland. Many fans weren’t familiar with the prospects which had been traded in the deal which sent Ubaldo Jimenez to the Indians. Here is a scouting report of each dealt prospect:
Joe Gardner: Gardner is a left-handed pitcher, who is still currently in the minors. Gardner, 23, is known for his hard throwing sinker, clocking at 94 MPH. Left-handers are a true dread for him, as in AA, they have hit well over .300 facing him. His secondary pitches are inconsistent, leading to trouble, as hitters get used to his hard throwing sinker. Currently he is a reliever, though it’s expected for him to switch to a starter by the time he gets to the “Show”.
Alex White: White’s development has been strong to date. Some say his hard throwing sinking fastball, as well as his splitter as an out-pitch, could lead him to become a future ace. White, 23, throws not only pitch a nice fastball and splitter, but he can also throw a un-hittable slider across the plate. White is an innings eater, which is a huge part of his development. Start getting to know his name, because he has the potential to be a star.
Drew Pomeranz: Pomeranz has a nice speed fastball, which often leaves batters confused, with swings straight through the pitch. His command is usually very good, as he has a terrific arm. Pomeranz though needs more decisive pitches, as his only dominant pitch is his fastball. His fastball should lead him to become a successful number two starter, although likely in a few seasons from now. He also has a decent breaking ball, but not major league ready. With his performance to-date and size, there is no doubt that he will be exciting to watch.
Matt McBribe: McBribe is most likely the least-hyped prospect of the bunch. McBribe is a right-handed batter who hits for contact, with a decent power stroke. The former second-rounder can play multiple positions, and is developing at a decent pace. McBribe is only 20, but his future remains unclear at this point.
Ubaldo Jimenez: Ubaldo Jimenez came into the year as an all-star, a first half monster, a dominator. Is it so? Ubaldo Jimenez was looking like a perennial Cy Young candidate at the beginning of the 2010 season. However, all of a sudden, a breakdown occurred post all-star break. 2011 was considered a season of despair for Ubaldo, as his ERA ended at 4.68, and his win/loss ratio was poor. He still had a golden arm though and scorches his fastball right across the plate. Jimenez, is still a dangerous pitcher, which causes batters to continue to dread facing him. Even though his stats may seem poor, overall as a pitcher, he is far from a nightmare and a lost cause. With a full season coming up in the AL, expect a strong rebound.
Trade Overview: The trade was at first controversial, and still is, though to many it’s a clear win for the Rockies. The Rockies acquired four dominant prospects, who have great potential. The Indians acquired a hyped pitcher, whose dominance lasted for a few months in his peak. Now the Rockies have a robust farm system, as the Indians are left with an average farm, and a bad to decent number two starter. Ubaldo had been called in the past the next Roy Halladay, though many experts expected him to come back down to earth.
Looking at the Indians 2011 campaign: After the first half of the season, when the Indians seemed unstoppable, they started slumping. Once a slump comes, it’s hard to get out of it. The Indians were fighting to stay in contention, but as of September 17th, they were officially eliminated from the playoffs. A huge part of their success was Justin Masterson, who has emerged into the tribe’s ace. The Indians did struggle though during the year with injuries, which turned out to be a killer. At one point of the season, the Indians could barely find 4 pitchers to fill a rotation. For some time the team had pitchers starting with four days rest. Vinnie Pestano was a pleasant surprise in the bullpen, as his ERA maintained below 3.00. Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera were among the contributors in the hitting department. The Indians were in contention for much of the year, but poor performances from expected contributors including Ubaldo Jimenez, injuries, and long-lasting slumps, ended their season a few weeks earlier than the team hoped.
2012 Preview: A bright spot in the Indians organization is that their farm is filled with hard-hitting prospects. Michael Brantley, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Matt LaPorta, Lonnie Chisenhall, Nick Weglarz, and Shin Soo Choo, can leave Indians fans with smiles on their faces heading towards next season.
The pitching staff of the Indians is less certain, though they have potential in some strong arms. Zach McCallister, along with Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Carlos Carrasco, and Josh Tomlin, provide the team with a rotation built on youth, that could develop into an above average rotation in the wild central. The team also announced right at the end of the season that manager Manny Acta’s option for 2013 was picked up. Although pitching coach Tim Belcher will not return (deciding to spend more time with family), having the stability that Acta brings to the table as a manager is a great start for the team heading into next year. A lot of excitement is in store for Indians fans, and with a great deal of talented youth in the organization, can bring also hope among tribe fans.
***Today’s feature was prepared by Jeff P, Guest Writer to MLB reports. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Jeff on Twitter.***
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Javier Vazquez Behind the Numbers: The Fantasy Value of Pitchers
Monday September 26, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): After a historically bad start to the regular season, Javier Vazquez has finished the 2011 campaign on a hot streak to the delight of many fantasy owners who found the 35-year-old right-hander available on the waiver wire. He is ending his season and career with a bang, not allowing a run in his last 25 innings pitched and winning five consecutive starts. His 7 wins, 2.16 ERA, and 87 strikeouts in 87 innings make him one of the strongest starting pitching assets in all of baseball post all-star break.
Going into the season I actually grossly overpaid for Vazquez and ultimately traded him away. I continued to monitor the pitcher because I knew what he was capable of doing on the mound. However, sitting at 5-8 with a 5.23 ERA at the all-star break, Javy lived up to the criticisms that he has endured throughout his entire career. On paper, Vazquez appears to be one of the most consistent pitchers of the past decade, earning double-digit victories in each of the past twelve seasons. Returning to the NL East, many people, myself included, had high expectations for Vazquez in 2011. After all, he is just two years removed his finest season as a professional with 15 wins and 2.87 ERA for the Atlanta Braves. But the guy is far from consistent. Season to season, month to month, and from start to start you never knew which Javy Vazquez you were going to get – just ask one of his former managers, Ozzie Guillen. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3602173
New York Yankee fans are also all too familiar with Vazquez as well, as his stints in the Bronx in both 2004 and 2009 are reminiscent of A.J. Burnett’s 2011 campaign. There is no question that Vazquez is streaky and frustrating to own, for both real and fantasy managers.
However, Vazquez finished 2011, and he says his career, with one of the strongest stretches of his career – conveniently down the stretch for savvy fantasy owners.
So what took Vazquez so long to get his act together in 2011? The answer is actually very clear and it has everything to do with his velocity. To start the season, his average fastball velocity started around 86 miles per hour but steadily increased and finally reached the 92-93 miles per hour range for the second half of the season. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=801&position=P&pitch=FA
As his fastball velocity increased, so did the frequency in which Vazquez used it. While it’s rare that a 35-year-old regains velocity, it is
evident that it was the key to his success. The gain in velocity, coupled with a low-pressure situation in Florida in the NL East, allowed Vazquez to morph back into the pitcher he was in 2009. Although some players rely on velocity more than others, it certainly is a major factor in a pitcher’s success. Just look at Ubaldo Jimenez. With an average fastball velocity of 96mph in 2010, he put together a 19-8 season with a 2.88 ERA. In 2011, his velocity dipped to 93.9 mph and Ublado had trouble getting hitters out, compiling a 10-12 record with an ugly 4.47 ERA. Unless Ubaldo can have a Javy-like resurgence in velocity, he will be forced to improve his secondary pitches and will probably never again be a Cy Young contender.
This gets me to the point of the article. Many fantasy owners tend to ride players who are on hot streaks. But how can you predict these hot streaks when luck plays such a big factor? There needs to be an identifier for success, because all too many times we see players burst onto the scene with a few good starts but soon fizzle away. Sample size is very important, and Vazquez has demonstrated that he is capable of success. It was the gain in velocity and Vazquez’s placement in the NL East that made him a second half commodity. Therefore, before you trust a guy who is “hot”, be sure you do your research and find out why. Otherwise, you are simply gambling. With starting pitchers look for the factors that might contribute to a pitcher’s success: velocity, pitch selection, league and division, and ballpark.
Next week I will take this even further and discuss FIP and XFIP. If you play fantasy baseball and don’t know about www.fangraphs.com, do yourself a favor and familiarize yourself with the site and sabermetrics. This will give you a more accurate depiction of how a pitcher is throwing the ball and better indicators for future success, thereby eliminating the guessing games and searching for “hot streaks.”
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
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New York Yankees: 6-Man Rotation and Implications
Tuesday August 9, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): When you look at the New York Yankees pitching staff in 2011, two things come to mind. C.C. Sabathia is the only frontline starter they currently have, and he has a pretty decent supporting cast. That being said, last week, the Yankees have decided to go with a 6-man rotation for the time being. This could be a motivational tool for Phil Hughes, who has struggled with injuries and command this season. It also could be a way to limit some of the other starters’ inning totals. Here is a quick look at all six members of the current rotation and how they stack up.
C.C. Sabathia is a true ace. A workhorse. A throwback to a generation where pitchers routinely threw 210+ innings in a season. In his first 10 Major League seasons, Sabathia averaged over 210 innings per season. This season, he is on pace for close to 250 innings. Sabathia is once again this season one of the strongest frontrunners for the AL Cy Young Award.
Bartolo Colon is having a resurgence nobody could have predicted. His ERA+ (a stat that compares his ERA with league average as well as adjusting to ballparks) of 126 is the highest it has been since 2002 when he was traded from Cleveland to Montreal. He has thrown 113 2/3 innings already, which is more than he threw from 2008-2010. Although it is fair to say he didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2010. Colon hasn’t thrown this many innings since 2005, when he threw 222 2/3 on his way to a Cy Young Award. Colon is throwing strikes and eating innings. Since joining the rotation, Colon has averaged over 6 innings per start. Colon is a candidate to tire and wear down due to his large frame and weight, as well as the number of innings he has thrown in the last 5-years.
A.J. Burnetthas again been under-performing in relation to the 5-year $80M contract he signed before the 2009 season. Burnett has always been touted as a pitcher with electric stuff, but unable it seems to figure it out. Last year he was atrocious. This year he is better, but still not very good. He is on pace to lead the league in wild pitches for the second time in three years; in 2010 he was 2nd. Burnett’s walk rate of 4 per 9 innings is not good, and he is giving up home runs at an alarming rate of 1.3 per 9 innings.
If we thought that Colon has been good this year, then Freddy Garcia has been great. Once considered a great inning eater, with 7
of his first 8 MLB seasons throwing over 200 innings, he is back to his old tricks. Garcia doesn’t throw with the same velocity as he once did; his fastball averaged 93 mph in 2002, whereas it sits around 87 now. He knows this is the case, and actually only throws his heater 37.2% of the time, compared to 63% in 2002. The biggest difference is that he now throws a split-finger 21.5% of the time, which he didn’t begin throwing with any regularity until 2006. Garcia threw 157 innings last year, so I don’t see him wearing down yet as evidenced by his 3.16 ERA in 122 1/3 innings this season.
Phil Hughes has not had the 2011 that the Yankees dreamed of after his terrific 2010 season, where he went 18-8 with a 4.19 ERA. Hughes has only started 8 games this year, and has not pitched very well. His main problem is that he is simply not missing any bats. His K rate sits at 4.74/9 IP. Hitters are hitting more line drives, and less ground balls off Hughes, which is a reason for a spike in his BABIP of .343 as compared to .274 last year. The Yankees could be using his next couple of starts to see if they will stick with a 6-man rotation. Hughes has been unable to last more than 6 innings in a start this year. It should be noted though that his last start on August 2nd was an encouraging one, as he threw 6 innings, allowing only 3 hits and induceing 9 ground balls.
Ivan Nova had been dangled in trade talks seemingly from the end of the last World Series until this year’s trade deadline, where
the Yankees pulled him back to keep for themselves. GM Brian Cashman has said that they feel Ivan Nova is as good as the current version of Ubaldo Jimenez, so they held on to him, hoping to harness his ability. When Hughes returned from the disabled list, Nova was initially optioned to AAA to make room in the rotation. Nova has been pretty good all season, as his sinking fastball induces a ton of ground balls. His 10-4 record with a 3.81 ERA has been impressive, but he still doesn’t strike out many hitters. Nova threw almost 190 innings last year, so he will have no restrictions this year as he currently sits at 122 IP in the MLB and AAA combined.
The Yankees have a pretty good problem to have in that four of their starters are pitching well., one starter has been working back from an injury and is improving, and the other is a guy with tremendous talent. The choice that many would like to see is Burnett being pushed to a bullpen role, but I don’t see that happening. One more turn in the rotation should prove that the Yankees need to cut down on Garcia and Colon’s innings, and that Burnett should throw on 5 days rest instead of the usual four. Garcia and Colon may also get skipped in the rotation a couple of times down the stretch to save their arms for the playoffs.
For the playoffs, most teams use a three or four-man rotation, using their fifth guy in a long relief role. The Yankees can make a case for a four-man rotation, using Sabathia, Nova, Colon and Garcia if they all stay healthy. That is a lot of talent and experience to utilize in a short playoff matchup. Hughes has never been that impressive to me, but if he rounds into form, he could easily slot into the fourth spot, pushing out Colon or Garcia, depending on who loses the battle at the end.
The bottom line is that the Yankees have depth at the Major League level. They have successfully held on to many of their top prospects in the last few years, while adding crafty veteran free agents to the mix. The result is that the Yankees should continue contending for the American League East division title this year and for many years to come.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Summary of all Trades- 2011 MLB Trade Deadline Report and Analysis
Monday August 1, 2011
MLB reports: Another hectic MLB trade deadline is in the books. This year’s trade market was just as much about the trades that were not made as the ones that were. For all the speculation leading up to the deadline, star players like James Shields, B.J. Upton, Heath Bell and Carlos Quentin stay put. The trades that did go down included Ubaldo Jimenez, Mike Adams, Doug Fister, Colby Rasmus and much more. Here is a rundown of all the trades that took place in Major League Baseball as part of the non-waiver MLB Trade Deadline, which was 4:00p.m. on Sunday July 31st:
Michael Bourn and cash (Astros) for Jordan Schaefer, Brett Oberholtzer, Paul Clemens, Juan Abreu (Braves): The Braves get a solid leadoff hitter, center fielder and base stealer from the Astros for four average prospects. Without having to give up any of their top prospects and filled a huge hole in their lineup and outfield, top marks goes to the Braves.
Hunter Pence and cash (Astros) for Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Josh Zeid and a player to be named later (Phillies): A win for the Phillies, as they get one of the top outfield bats in the game in Pence, who remains under team control going into next year. I like the return of Singleton, one of the top hitting prospects in the minors. But still, the Astros should have received a higher return for Pence who was the face of their franchise. A win for both squads but give the edge to the Phillies.
Mike Adams (Padres) for Joseph Wieland and Robert Erlin (Rangers): A win for both sides. The Rangers get one of the top relievers in baseball (Adams), who remains under team control after the season. For a team that is a World Series contender, Adams and Uehara give the Rangers a suddenly formidable pen. Wieland and Erlin were two top pitching prospects in the Rangers system and give the Padres much more depth. For a team that acquired what it needed most without giving up any of its top prospects, the Rangers can chalk this trade up to a huge win. The Padres did not do badly either, as Adams was a luxury they did not require and the Padres farm system all of a sudden became much stronger.
Brad Ziegler (A’s) for Brandon Allen and Jordan Norberto (Diamondbacks): A deal that works for both teams. Ziegler is a useful reliever that strengthens the Dbacks pen in a push for the NL West crown. Allen is a highly considered first base prospect who should slot well in Oakland plus Noberto is another arm in the A’s organization. It is too bad for the A’s that the Lars Anderson plus prospect for Rich Harden deal fell through with Boston, but Allen is a good runner-up prize.
Erik Bedard and Josh Fields (Mariners) for Trayvon Robinson (Dodgers) and Chih-Hsien Chiang, Tim Federowicz, Juan Rodriguez and Stephen Fife (Red Sox): Red Sox get Bedard and Fields (the reliever, not third baseman currently in Japan, Mariners get Robinson and Chiang, while Dodgers get Federowicz, Rodriguez and Fife. Confused? Good. This was one of those three-way deals that when all is said and done, you are left scratching your head. The key to this deal is Erik Bedard for the Red Sox. If he stays healthy, and that is a big if, the Red Sox might have a valuable addition to their starting rotation. Fields should also slot in well in the Red Sox pen. Both Robinson and Chiang are considered to be good prospects and should have a very good chance at cracking the Mariners’ outfield. The trade of Robinson came as somewhat of a surprise and the Dodgers have received a great deal of negative press on the deal. The team however was looking for a prospect catcher and believe they have found it in Federowicz and the additional parts in Rodriguez and Fife. The Mariners are the big winners in this deal, while the Red Sox play with fire and the Dodgers likely just got burnt.
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride (Indians): What a difference a year makes. The Indians are going for it and have beefed up their rotation with the addition of Jimenez. When on his game, Ubaldo is one of the best in baseball. Further, Ubaldo continues to be under team control, so the Indians don’t simply acquire a summer rental here. The keys to this deal for the Rockies are Pomeranz and White. Considered to be the Indians two best pitching prospects, the Rockies add to their farm while losing their ace. While Pomeranz is considered highly in baseball circles, I would have expected to see the Rockies get more major league ready talent. Considering that they were supposed to get Jesus Montero and Ivan Nova from the Yankees or Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and/or Homer Bailey from the Reds, I give the Indians the edge on this deal. Ace pitchers do not grow on trees and the Indians got one without giving up any of their major league talent or some of their other finer prospects, including Nick Weglarz. Competing with the big boys, the Indians get the prize of the trade deadline and likely a division title as well.
Derek Lee (Orioles) for Aaron Baker (Pirates): The Pirates are going for it and while Lee is an aging first baseman, he is an upgrade offensively over incumbent Lyle Overbay. Baker is a Class A first baseman that is not considered a top prospect. This trade is a draw, as the Pirates beef up for their playoff run and the Orioles auction off an impending free agent to stock their system.
Orlando Cabrera (Indians) for Thomas Neal (Giants): This deal came out of left field, as the Indians are still contending and were expected to hold onto Cabrera. With many young infielders on their roster, the Indians were prepared to sacrifice their utility man for one of the Giants higher rated prospect bats. Speaking to Neal on several occasions, he is one of the nicer young men you will ever want to meet in the game. Considered a great tools player, both offensively and defensively, the Indians have added another piece to their offensive puzzle while sacrificing a veteran that was expandable. The Giants, with injury and offensive woes, took a chance on Cabrera, a good luck charm for each of his respective teams in the postseason. While Neal was a big price to pay, the Giants are in win-now mode. A draw, as both teams will away happy from this exchange.
Koji Uehara (Orioles) for Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis (Rangers): This is a good old-fashioned baseball trade. The Rangers pick up a veteran reliever, who is enjoying his finest campaign in the big leagues and could be a setup man or closer. The Orioles continue to stockpile prospects and add a starter and first baseman to their mix. Davis has one of the most explosive bats in the game when he gets hot and the Orioles could have their cleanup hitter for the next 5-7 years. Hunter should be a good #3 or #4 starter for the team. A draw as both teams achieve their respective goals in this deal.
Mike Cameron (Red Sox) for player to be named later or cash (Marlins): Cameron was not hitting in Boston but could be a valuable veteran presence in Florida. I like this move for the Marlins as Cameron is solid player and person, perfect for their clubhouse.
Felipe Lopez (Rays) for cash (Brewers): Lopez still has pop in his bat and could be useful for a playoff push. There was no room for the Rays on their roster and they will happily take the financial relief.
Jason Marquis (Nationals) for Zach Walters (Diamondbacks): I am a fan of what the Diamondbacks are doing in Arizona, but this trade doesn’t work for me. Marquis will pitch in Arizona, but I don’t see him being the effective starter the team needs to fight the Giants for a playoff berth. Walters is a prospect shortstop who could have been Stephen Drew‘s replacement one day when he left the team. Walters has a good offensive bat and was not worth the price of Marquis. Advantage Washington for adding another prospect to its growing farm while dumping a veteran pitcher that had no place on their roster.
Mike Aviles (Royals) for Yamaico Navarro and Kendal Volz (Red Sox): The Red Sox get some sort of infield insurance, which was unnecessary in my estimation with both Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie on the roster. If Lowrie is out beyond early August as projected, then this deal makes sense. Otherwise, to give up two decent prospects for a player who has struggled this season and is unlikely to hit much in Boston does not equate for me. Advantage Royals for dumping a player who did not fit on the team and continuing to stock their system.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (Nationals) for Erik Komatsu (Brewers): The Brewers get depth for their playoff run and the Nationals get a marginal prospect back. A draw.
Wil Nieves (Brewers) for cash (Braves): Yawn. An average catcher for cash.
Francisco Rodriguez and cash (Mets) for two players to be named later (Brewers): A good trade for both teams. The Brewers strengthen their pen with the addition of K-Rod, who could close or set up for the team and is a free agent at season’s end. The Mets get salary relief and likely two decent prospects back.
Colby Rasmus, P.J. Walters, Brian Tallet (Cardinals) for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen (White Sox) for Jason Frasor, Octavio Dotel, Marc Rzepczynski, Corey Patterson and Zach Stewart, three players to be named later or cash (Jays): The good news with this trade is that I will not have to struggle to spell Rzepczynski anymore. But in all seriousness, this was the first three-way deal of the deadline and probably the most interesting trade that went down. The White Sox shed the contract of Teahen (to the Jays) and acquire Frasor and Stewart. The Cardinals get Jackson for their rotation and Dotel/Rzepczynski for their bullpen, as well as three more PTBNL or cash from the Jays. The Jays get the biggest prize, Rasmus to play center and bat second, as well as Miller, Tallet and Walters for their pen. The Jays in our opinion win out, as they get a rare top prospect bat and only give up three middle relievers. The White Sox did well in getting salary relief, a prospect arm in Stewart and a useful bullpen arm in Frasor. The question marks surround the Cardinals, who give up the top player in the trade and might get left with very little more than adqueate playoff rentals as both Jackson and Dotel might not be with the team in 2012.
Nick Green and cash (Orioles) for Zach Phillips (Rangers): Marginal reliever for marginal shortstop. A push.
Ryan Langerhans (Mariners) for cash (Diamondbacks): A depth player at best, the Diamondbacks hope to get one or two big hits out of Langerhans in the push for a playoff berth. It looks like this was the best the Mariners could do in dumping another salary.
Doug Fister and David Pauley (Mariners) for Francisco Martinez, Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush and a PTBNL (Tigers): For a Tigers team that was considered early in the day to be in the hunt for Ubaldo Jimenez, this one is a bit of a let down. Fister will be a #4 or #5 starter for the Tigers, good but not great. Pauley was having an incredible season for the Mariners in their pen and should do well in Comerica. Wells will likely slot immediately into the Mariners outfield and the rest of the players are prospects to their stock their farm. While I’m not excited about what Detroit received, I am equally not impressed by what they gave up. Call this one a draw. Middle of the road players for players at this point.
Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) for Alex Castellanos and cash (Cardinals): With Dee Gordon in the minors and money woes being an issue, this trade for the Dodgers is about getting younger and saving money in the process. The Cardinals are pushing for a playoff spot and if healthy, Furcal should give the team a spark offensively. Personally, I would not trust Furcal based on his injury history. The Dodgers get back a marginal prospect in this swap. The fact that the Dodgers unloaded Furcal and got the Cardinals to pick up a large portion of his contract, I will label this trade a Dodgers win.
Juan Rivera (Jays) for player to be named later or cash (Dodgers): Considering the Dodgers just released Marcus Thames, I am not sure why they chose to acquire Rivera. They are very similar players, although I would give the edge to Thames for his better defense. A win for the Jays, dumping a player that had no role on their team and was not hitting very much.
Jonny Gomes and cash (Reds) for Bill Rhinehart and Christopher Manno (Nationals): Gomes should be a good bat for the Nationals but with the team out of the playoff picture, it is a little curious why the team would give up prospects at this point. Reds get the advantage as there was no room in their outfield for Gomes, they acquire two prospects and open up space for Yonder Alonso to play everyday.
Carlos Beltran (Mets) for Zack Wheeler (Giants): One of the best trades of the year that will benefit both teams. The Giants get the top bat they so badly needed after Buster Posey went down. Together with salary relief (the Mets will kick in about $4 million), the Mets get one of the top pitching prospects in the game. The Giants had to go for it and could not afford to waste their top pitching rotation without providing offense. With Beltran an impeding free agent, the Mets strengthen their rotation for years to come.
Jeff Keppinger (Astros) for Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel (Giants): The Giants get more bench depth for the playoffs and the Astros get back decent prospects. Another boring but necessary trade for both. Consider a draw.
Ryan Ludwick (Padres) for a player to be named later (Pirates): The Pirates are looking to make a strong playoff run and former Indian Luckwick would fit well in their offense this year. It remains to be seen what the Pirates have to give up, but for a player in as strong demand as Ludwick, as long as it is not too much, give the edge to the Pirates. This one will hinge on the quality of the prospect going to the Padres.
Kosuke Fukudome and $3.9 million (Cubs) for Abner Abreu and Carlton Smith (Indians): This trade is all about the Indians going for it in a year when the AL Central is ripe for the taking. Fukudome, largely considered a disappointment in Chicago, is sent with cash to the Indians for their stretch run. Good to get on base with the occasional pop, the hope is that the change of scenery will do Fukudome good. The prospects the Cubs received back are marginal at best, as this trade was mostly about a salary dump. Credit to Chicago for ridding itself of one its huge mistake contracts, with more such contracts to go. The Indians hope they catch lightening in a bottle, but likely will get only decent production out of their latest Japanese import.
Wilson Betemit (Royals) for Antonio Cruz and Julio Rodriguez (Tigers): The first trade in the deadline dealings, the Tigers upgrade their third base situation over Brandon Inge. The Royals shed a contract and get two decent prospects. We will call this one a draw.
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Boston Red Sox: Who is on Their Radar? Jimenez to Indians and Trade Deadline Summary
Saturday July 30, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): With the deadline only a day away, I expect a flurry of moves in the next 24 hours, and the Boston Red Sox are sure to get involved. With injuries to Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka, combined with the inability of John Lackey to get outs, the BoSox have been in on every rumored starting pitcher being moved. Here’s a look at Boston’s targets, and who they would have to give up in order to consummate a deal.
The Japanese import could bring a good haul for the LA Dodgers, and it is believed that they are looking for a young catcher or a starting pitcher in return. I don`t believe the Red Sox would give up Anthony Ranaudo for him, but it is the Red Sox, and their system is fairly stacked. Kuroda isn`t a top line starter, but could fit in nicely behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester right now. In his last 10 starts, Kuroda is 1-8 with a 2.66 ERA, giving up more than three runs in a start only once. He is on pace to break the 200 inning mark for the first time in his MLB career.
Prospects
I could see the Dodgers wanted a package that could involve Kyle Weiland, who has been at AAA, including a couple of underwhelming starts for the Red Sox. He has been dominant in AAA, and while his ceiling might not be very high, Weiland could be a piece used to obtain Kuroda.
Former top pick Andrew Miller could be involved as well, as he has shown flashes of the potential that the Tigers saw to draft him 6th overall in the 2006 draft.
Jason Vargas (SEA), Aaron Harang (SDP), Jeremy Guthrie (BAL), Erik Bedard (SEA)
Vargas is another pitcher who hasn’t had much luck this year, going 6-9 with a 4.09 ERA. He too is on pace to break the 200 inning plateau for the first time in his career. He gives up a lot of fly balls and home runs, so he might not be the best fit for Fenway Park.
Harang has made the most of his move to spacious Petco Park. In the pitcher’s haven, his ERA is 2.92, as opposed to 4.31 on road games. Harang in Boston might not be a good fit due to his propensity to give up the long ball, but, whether it is due to the park or not, he has only given up 9 homeruns so far this year.
Playing the last five years in Baltimore will never help your win-loss record, but Guthrie has been a reliable arm for the Orioles over that time. His career ERA of 4.16 while mostly pitching in the AL East proves that he could be a capable pitcher for the Red Sox. Although he is 5-14, he has pitched fairly well this year, and could be great addition to the back-end of the Red Sox rotation.
Bedard’s once promising career has been derailed by injury after injury. He has always possessed tremendous stuff, but hasn’t been able to stay healthy. In his last ten starts, he has thrown 58 2/3 innings, striking out 64. Bedard has never amassed 200 innings, and his career high is 196, in 2006.
All of these pitchers are available and the Red Sox are in talks with each of the respective teams. Many of the prospects mentioned in this article will be in play, as well as Bryce Brentz, a powerful outfielder in high-A. He needs to cut down on strikeouts but he is a solid right fielder for the future.
The Cubs` outfielder could bring a spark of energy to the club. J.D. Drew is on the DL, again, so they do need an outfielder if they want to upgrade over Josh Reddick or Darnell McDonald. Johnson plays great defense and is hitting the ball pretty well this year, so he could slot into right field well at Fenway.
23-year-old catcher Ryan Lavarnway could be involved in a deal. He is a young catcher that isn`t too far away from the big leagues. Lavarnway has a lot of power as shown by his 27 home runs already this year. He is known as a good game caller and a smart catcher.
Ubaldo Jimenez has tremendous upside and is signed to a team-friendly contract through 2014. The Colorado Rockies are asking for a prospect haul that most teams can’t even match. At this point, only the Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, together with the Red Sox are involved in talks with the Rockies. Although just 6-9 this year with a 4.20 ERA, he has made some great strides in the last couple of months. In his last 10 starts, he is 5-4 with 3.47 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings. Jimenez has lowered his ERA almost a full run during that time. Although some teams worry about his delivery, the big righty has been durable, throwing at least 198 innings in the last three years, and is on pace to break that mark again this year.
Prospects
Anthony Ranaudo, a supplemental 1st round pick in 2010 started this season in A-ball, but could quickly shoot up the system in Colorado if moved. He possesses three above average pitcher and has front of the rotation stuff. He has good control and has great makeup and poise.
Will Middlebrooks is a prototypical third basemen with a good glove. He hits for average, and for power, evidenced by his 17 home runs so far this season. He also has 7 stolen bases. He possesses a good baseball IQ and he should have a long career in the big leagues.
Lars Anderson was once considered the top bat in the Red Sox system, and with Adrian Gonzalez in the mix, there doesn`t seem to be a spot for Anderson. He has good vision at the plate, sees a lot of pitches, and has gap power. As he continues to fill out, he will get stronger. I expect 20 home runs and 30 doubles a year out of Anderson when he finally does make it to the Show.
I think that the Red Sox win the Ubaldo Jimenez sweepstakes, sending uber-prospects Ranaudo, Middlebrooks, Anderson and maybe one or two players to be named later. This gives the Red Sox a fearsome top three starters in Beckett, Lester and Jimenez. If Buchholz comes back healthy, they have an incredible rotation for years to come. Reed Johnson is also a great fit for the team, and I see them making a move for him.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. Please feel free to leave comments and to welcome Rob aboard. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Editor’s Notes and Trade Deadline Summary:
A great article by our intern Rob Bland. As the trade deadline has shown already, as much as we think we can predict what will happen- surprises will always occur. Today was the last day before the non-waiver trade deadline, Sunday July 31st. Here is a rundown of all the trades that took place today in Major League Baseball:
Rich Harden (A’s) for Lars Anderson and Player to be Named Later (Red Sox): Yet to be announced. This deal has not yet been finalized and may fall through. Likely Billy Beane is pushing strong for this one. Boston gets Harden, a talented but very injury prone pitcher that cannot be counted on. Oakland would get a top young hitting prospect in Anderson and a PTBNL. Oakland wins if this one does happen, stay tuned.
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride (Indians): What a difference a year makes. The Indians are going for it and have beefed up their rotation with the addition of Jimenez. When on his game, Ubaldo is one of the best in baseball. Further, Ubaldo continues to be under team control, so the Indians don’t simply acquire a summer rental here. The keys to this deal for the Rockies are Pomeranz and White. Considered to be the Indians two best pitching prospects, the Rockies add to their farm while losing their ace. While Pomeranz is considered highly in baseball circles, I would have expected to see the Rockies get more major league ready talent. Considering that they were supposed to get Jesus Montero and Ivan Nova from the Yankees or Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and/or Homer Bailey from the Reds, I give the Indians the edge on this deal. Ace pitchers do not grow on trees and the Indians got one without giving up any of their major league talent or some of their other finer prospects, including Nick Weglarz. Competing with the big boys, the Indians get the prize of the trade deadline and likely a division title as well.
Derek Lee (Orioles) for Aaron Baker (Pirates): The Pirates are going for it and while Lee is an aging first baseman, he is an upgrade offensively over incumbent Lyle Overbay. Baker is a Class A first baseman that is not considered a top prospect. This trade is a draw, as the Pirates beef up for their playoff run and the Orioles auction off an impending free agent to stock their system.
Orlando Cabrera (Indians) for Thomas Neal (Giants): This deal came out of left field, as the Indians are still contending and were expected to hold onto Cabrera. With many young infielders on their roster, the Indians were prepared to sacrifice their utility man for one of the Giants higher rated prospect bats. Speaking to Neal on several occasions, he is one of the nicer young men you will ever want to meet in the game. Considered a great tools player, both offensively and defensively, the Indians have added another piece to their offensive puzzle while sacrificing a veteran that was expandable. The Giants, with injury and offensive woes, took a chance on Cabrera, a good luck charm for each of his respective teams in the postseason. While Neal was a big price to pay, the Giants are in win-now mode. A draw, as both teams will away happy from this exchange.
Koji Uehara (Orioles) for Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis (Rangers): This is a good old-fashioned baseball trade. The Rangers pick up a veteran reliever, who is enjoying his finest campaign in the big leagues and could be a setup man or closer. The Orioles continue to stockpile prospects and add a starter and first baseman to their mix. Davis has one of the most explosive bats in the game when he gets hot and the Orioles could have their cleanup hitter for the next 5-7 years. Hunter should be a good #3 or #4 starter for the team. A draw as both teams achieve their respective goals in this deal.
Jason Marquis (Nationals) for Zach Walters (Diamondbacks): I am a fan of what the Diamondbacks are doing in Arizona, but this trade doesn’t work for me. Marquis will pitch in Arizona, but I don’t see him being the effective starter the team needs to fight the Giants for a playoff berth. Walters is a prospect shortstop who could have been Stephen Drew‘s replacement one day when he left the team. Walters has a good offensive bat and was not worth the price of Marquis. Advantage Washington for adding another prospect to its growing farm while dumping a veteran pitcher that had no place on their roster.
Mike Aviles (Royals) for Yamaico Navarro and Kendal Volz (Red Sox): The Red Sox get some sort of infield insurance, which was unnecessary in my estimation with both Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie on the roster. If Lowrie is out beyond early August as projected, then this deal makes sense. Otherwise, to give up two decent prospects for a player who has struggled this season and is unlikely to hit much in Boston does not equate for me. Advantage Royals for dumping a player who did not fit on the team and continuing to stock their system.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (Nationals) for Erik Komatsu (Brewers): The Brewers get depth for their playoff run and the Nationals get a marginal prospect back. A draw.
Doug Fister and David Pauley (Mariners) for Francisco Martinez, Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush and a PTBNL (Tigers): For a Tigers team that was considered early in the day to be in the hunt for Ubaldo Jimenez, this one is a bit of a let down. Fister will be a #4 or #5 starter for the Tigers, good but not great. Pauley was having an incredible season for the Mariners in their pen and should do well in Comerica. Wells will likely slot immediately into the Mariners outfield and the rest of the players are prospects to their stock their farm. While I’m not excited about what Detroit received, I am equally not impressed by what they gave up. Call this one a draw. Middle of the road players for players at this point.
Denard Span (Twins) for Drew Storen and ? (Nationals): Yet to be announced. This one is a real head scratcher for me. I consider Span a good, but not great outfielder. This trade is not completed although many outlets are reporting that this deal will get done. The Nationals would give up their young closer if this deal happens and considerably weaken their bullpen. Span, while playing a strong centerfield is not the offensive bat the Nationals are looking for. After taking the Twins to the cleaners a year ago in trading Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos, this trade would be payback for the Twins. If Storen is part of this deal, advantage Twins. If the Nationals hang on to their closer, consider it a draw.
Rafael Furcal and cash (Dodgers) for an unknown player (Cardinals): Yet to be announced. With Dee Gordon in the minors and money woes being an issue, this trade for the Dodgers is about getting younger and saving money in the process. The Cardinals are pushing for a playoff spot and if healthy, Furcal should give the team a spark offensively. Personally, I would not trust Furcal based on his injury history. It also remains to be seen which player the Cardinals get back. But overall, without all the specifics, if the Dodgers can unload Furcal and have the Cardinals pick up most of his contract, I will label this trade a Dodgers win.
Ryan Ludwick (Padres) for an unknown player (Indians): Yet to be announced. The Indians are looking to make a strong playoff run and former Indian Luckwick would fit well in their offense this year. It remains to be seen what the Indians have to give up, but for a player in as strong demand as Ludwick, as long as it is not too much, give the edge to the Indians.
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Jonny Gomes Traded to the Nationals and Yonder Alonso Called Up by Reds
Tuesday July 26, 2011
MLB reports: The trades are trickling in very slowly thus far as the MLB trade deadline approaches. First Wilson Betemit was traded last week to the Tigers by the Royals. Now, Jonny Gomes is off to Washington with cash in exchange for two minor leaguers. Of most significance is the Gomes move allowing the Reds to call up super prospect Yonder Alonso. The question is whether the Reds are showcasing their rookie outfielder in a potential blockbuster trade or have called him for good to man left field for the next decade in Cincinnati.
Gomes was the darling of the Reds faithful the past two seasons. He slugged 20 home runs in 2009, playing in only 98 games. He followed up with an equally strong campaign last year, blasting 18 home runs with 86 RBIs and 77 runs scored. The Red had signed Gomes after the 2009 season to a 2-year, $2.55 million contract which looked like a bargain going into it this season. The 2011 season however, has not been kind to Gomes. Entering play today, Gomes was batting a paltry .211, with a .336 OBP and .399 SLG. After receiving every day playing time to start the year, Gomes was relegated to part-time duty as the season progressed. A change in scenery was in order and with prospect outfielder Yonder Alonso on the horizon, roster space needed to be opened up.
Gomes is now off to Washington to play out the string. The Nationals, in dire need of an offensive boost, took a chance on the 30-year old Gomes in the hope that he will be able to reclaim some of his past magic with Washington. The Nationals did not hurt themselves, as Gomes comes at a very reasonable salary which will be subsidized by the Reds and cost the team only two fringe prospects. Plus as a potential type “B” free agent at the end of the year, the Nationals would receive a compensation draft pick for Gomes if he is offered arbitration by the team and does not accept. Given Gomes’ offensive potential, it was a low-risk and high-reward move for a team that needed to send a message to its fans that it was serious about contending. Even though the team is out of the penant race this season, the Nationals needed to remain competitive through September to send the right message to its fanbase. Jonny Gomes is a step in the right direction in that respect.
The prospects headed to the Reds are pitcher Christopher Manno and outfielder Bill Rhinehart. Manno, a 38th round pick of the Nationals back in 2009 and then again in the 26th round in 2010 has shined since joining the organization. The 22-year old Manno, a 6’3″ left-handed pitcher, has a 1.47 ERA over 2 seasons in the lower minors, with 13 saves, only 32 hits given up in 61.1 IP and 25/98 BB/K. Rhinehart, 26-years of age, was drafted in the 11th round in 2007. Having made it all the way to AAA in 2010, Rhinehart was playing this season in AA. Up to the time of this trade yesterday, Rhinehart was enjoying his finest professional season to-date. Hitting .283 with 21 home runs, 59 RBIs and .963 OPS, Rhinehart was exhibiting great pop in his bat. But given that neither Manno nor Rhinehart are established major league players and are fringe prospects at best at this point in their careers, the Nationals have to be considered the winner of this trade. They acquired an established major leaguer without giving up any of their top prospects.
From the Reds’ perspective, the bigger corresponding move is the recall of Yonder Alonso. With his .296 AVG in AAA with 12 homer runs and .860 OPS,
Alonso had little left to prove in the minors. Scouts have never questioned his bat, as he has displayed the rare combination of power and patience from a very young age, far advanced for his years. The only knock is his defense, as Alonso is a converted outfielder after having been blocked at first base by perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto. But all the reports that we have seen is that Alonso has progressed well in learning the outfield to the point that he is considered adequate. Although he is no danger of ever winning a gold glove, Alonso’s bat more than compensates for any defensive shortcomings. The debate for the next five days will be whether Alonso is remaining with the Reds or being shipped in a blockbuster. My gut is that he is staying put.
The two biggest names being linked to the Reds in trade talks is Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies and James Shields of the Rays. Either player would cost a substantial package in return, including possibly Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco, Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso. The package that I have read for both players would be centered around Alonso and 1-2 more top prospects in the Reds’ organization. From all indications, the Reds are in on the two superstar hurlers but are attempting to hold onto their top prospects if possible. In a perfect world for the Reds, they would be able to land Jimenez while only giving up Bailey and Grandal. But the Rockies, like the Rays, will demand a package that includes Alonso and/or Mesoraco. A deep price to pay talent but reasonable, considering the upside and the high level of talent that would be coming back to the Reds.
At the end of the day, I believe that the Reds will regret it if they move Alonso. He is rare hitter that will be an All-Star for many years to come. While top flight pitching is hard to find and develop, it usually comes at a high price and risk. Pitchers, given the strain and wear and tear they put on their arms, are the most likely position to be injured and thus come with the highest risks and question marks. The hope is that the Reds appreciate the talent that they have in Yonder Alonso and continue to cultivate and develop him. With such a deep pool of talent, they should still be able to make the headliner trade they are shooting for without giving up their top rated young hitter. They were able to move Gomes to Washington to make room for Alonso, now hopefully we can sit back and watch Alonso combine with Mesoraco, Votto, Phillips and Stubbs to form the newest version of the Big Red Machine. The Reds are on the verge of putting together something very special. Hopefully they stick to the plan.
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Hiroki Kuroda: Pitcher Looks to be Possibly Traded From the Dodgers to Rangers
Monday July 25, 2011
MLB reports: One of the most underrated pitchers in the game is currently on the auction block. Los Angeles Dodgers hurler, Hiroki Kuroda, is currently being shopped to major league teams as the July 31st trade deadline is nearly upon us. The 36-year old Kuroda has been very consistent since joining the Dodgers, enjoying solid numbers despite a constant lack of run support. With a no-trade clause, Kuroda has the ability to refuse a trade in remain in the Los Angeles for the rest of the season. But with demand high for the hurler and teams likely to offer incentives (in the $1-$2 million range), it appears that Kuroda will be changing addresses in the next six days.
A veteran of the Nippon Professional Baseball League, Kuroda played from 1997-2007 with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp in Japan before coming over to North America. As a free agent outside of the posting system, Kuroda was free to sign with any major league team. In 2007, Kuroda signed a 3-year, $35.3 million contract with the Dodgers and last offseason re-signed for 1-year, $12 million. A look at his major league numbers show that Kuroda has been a solid and dependable veteran:
| Year | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 9 | 10 | 3.73 | 183.1 | 181 | 42 | 116 | 1.216 |
| 2009 | 8 | 7 | 3.76 | 117.1 | 110 | 24 | 87 | 1.142 |
| 2010 | 11 | 13 | 3.39 | 196.1 | 180 | 48 | 159 | 1.161 |
| 2011 | 6 | 12 | 3.19 | 127.0 | 122 | 33 | 97 | 1.220 |
| 4 Seasons | 34 | 42 | 3.52 | 624.0 | 593 | 147 | 459 | 1.186 |
| 162 Game Avg. | 11 | 14 | 3.52 | 207 | 197 | 49 | 152 | 1.186 |
The teams that have pursued Kuroda are the Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds. Looking at the numbers, I don’t blame them. In some ways the second coming of Hideo Nomo, Kuroda may not be as flashy but he has been dependable. Except for 2009 when he suffered through injuries, Kuroda has pitched close to 200 innings every season since joining the Dodgers. This year has been one of Kuroda’s finest, with a 3.19 ERA and 1.220 WHIP, which have only led him to a 6-12 record on a meek Dodgers squad. With better run support, his record could easily be 12-6. Now with July 31st rapidly approaching, people are wondering whether a) Kuroda will waive his no-trade clause; and b) which team will acquire him.
I am surprised that more teams are not pursuing the hurler. With so few quality starters available at exorbitant prices, including Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies and James Shields of the Rays, Kuroda may be the best and most affordable quality starter available to a team that needs a starting pitcher for its stretch run. While Jimenez and Shields will take approximately 3 top prospects, Kuroda may only take 1 or 2 decent prospects. Not a high price to pay considering what a team will get back in return.
From the names thrown around, I would see the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers having the best chance to land Hiroki Kuroda, with the Rangers being the most likely to win the Kuroda derby. The Rangers have a great farm system and many solid prospects for the Dodgers to choose from. As well, the Rangers give Kuroda the best chance of winning a championship, having made it last year to the World Series. Other teams will surely take a run at the hurler, especially the Yankees and Red Sox. But when push comes to shove, expect Kuroda to grab his cowboy hat and boots and head to the lone star state. We don’t profess to have a crystal ball and anything can happen this week. The Los Angeles Dodgers will base their final decision on receiving full salary relief and the best prospects in return for their star pitcher. It is always fun to speculate at the trade deadline time. Let’s see which team ultimately offers the best package to acquire one of baseball’s best Japanese imports: Hiroki Kuroda.
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James Shields to the Reds for Alonso and Grandal: July 31st MLB Trade Deadline Rumor
Saturday July 23, 2011
MLB reports: We are now only eight days away from the MLB non-waiver trade deadline and the rumors continue to fly fast and furious. Along with the Carlos Beltran and Heath Bell sweepstakes, the names Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Willingham, Brandon League, Hunter Pence and Hiroki Kuroda have been tossed around as possible candidates to be moved next week. Another big time name has recently been thrown into the mix that we will be looking at today. James Shields, “big game James”, one of the top starting pitchers on the Tampa Bay Rays may very well be playing for a new team very soon. The Cincinnati Reds are apparently calling and with big prospect bats sitting on the farm, the Reds may very well have the necessary bait to haul in one of the biggest fishes on the trade market.
The 29-year old James Shields was drafted by the Rays in the 16th round of the 2000 MLB draft. Shields made his major league debut in 2006. Here is a quick rundown of his lifetime statistics:
| Year | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 6 | 8 | 4.84 | 124.2 | 141 | 38 | 104 | 1.436 |
| 2007 | 12 | 8 | 3.85 | 215.0 | 202 | 36 | 184 | 1.107 |
| 2008 | 14 | 8 | 3.56 | 215.0 | 208 | 40 | 160 | 1.153 |
| 2009 | 11 | 12 | 4.14 | 219.2 | 239 | 52 | 167 | 1.325 |
| 2010 | 13 | 15 | 5.18 | 203.1 | 246 | 51 | 187 | 1.461 |
| 2011 | 9 | 8 | 2.53 | 156.1 | 118 | 40 | 151 | 1.011 |
| 6 Seasons | 65 | 59 | 4.02 | 1134.0 | 1154 | 257 | 953 | 1.244 |
| 162 Game Avg. | 13 | 12 | 4.02 | 224 | 227 | 51 | 188 | 1.244 |
A definite innings-eater, James pitched almost 1000 innings over his first five seasons, making him one of the most consistent and reliable pitchers in the game. A lack of run support has definitely hurt Shields over the years, as he had the numbers to obtain more wins had the Rays offense been able to support him better. I have watched too many instances of Shields pitching complete or near complete game losses, despite only giving up 2-3 runs per game. 2009 and 2010 were not kind to James in some ways, as some analysts viewed Shields as having hit his peak and starting to decline. Going into 2011, nobody knew what James Shields the Rays would be getting. The steady ace that the team enjoyed for the majority of his career or the 2010 inconsistent version. Looking at Shields at the halfway mark of the season, he is enjoying by far his greatest season in the majors. A sparkling 2.53 ERA and 1.011 WHIP, Shields has been everything that the Rays could have expected more. But with success comes many questions, with the most pertinent being what the Rays should do with James.
The whispers and talk has been growing by the day that the Rays may be looking to move Shields by July 31st. The Reds have been the team most linked to the Rays, given their desire to bolster their rotation and the deep farm of prospects they can offer the Rays. The Reds are sitting on some of the top prospects in the game that are currently blocked at the major league level. Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF is considered one of the best hitters not at the major league level. Alonso would represent the centerpiece of a potential Shields deal. Born in Cuba and having attended the University of Miami, Alonso is often compared to his friend Alex Rodriguez, based on his combination of power and patience at the plate. Not bad company at all. The 24-year old Alonso was drafted 7th overall in the 2008 draft by the Reds and has quickly advanced in their system. Currently in AAA, Alonso sits at a .297 AVG, .871 OPS, with 12 home runs and 46/59 BB/K. The Rays, desperately in need of bats, currently have Casey Kotchman manning first. Alonso would be a perfect fit in taking over the first base job for the next decade. He is a special hitter that does not come along very often. While a pitcher of Shields stature is not easy to replace, the Rays would be filling a huge void in their lineup by adding Alonso. Dealing from strength to fill a need is smart baseball management and the reason why we are discussing the trade of Shields today.
In addition to acquiring Yonder Alonso, the Rays would be adding a number one catcher to their system in either Yasmani Grandal or Devin
Mesoraco. I have seen both names thrown around, but my gut is that the Rays will end up receiving Grandal. Mesoraco was featured by us back in June. The likely Reds catcher of the future, Mesoraco is expected to get the call either this year or next at the latest to replace incumbent Ramon Hernandez. With a solid backup in Ryan Hanigan, the Reds have an abundance of catchers, a strength considering that few major league teams have potential superstar backstops playing in their lower levels. The 22-year old Grandal was born in Cuba and played in Miami, similar to Alonso. Drafted 12th overall in the 2010 MLB draft, Grandal recently got the call to AA. Mesoraco on the other hand, is 23-years of age and was drafted 15th overall by the Reds in the 2007 MLB draft. Mesoraco is back for his second tour of duty in AAA, hitting a solid .309 and .895 OPS, with 10 home runs and 54 RBIs. After battling injuries in his career, Mesoraco hit a combined 26 home runs over 3 levels last season and has not slowed down since. The Rays would be thrilled to receive Mesoraco in a Shields trade, but Grandal is considered by many to actually be the more talented backstop. A win-win either way for Tampa Bay.
But why trade Shields and especially, why now? Many Rays fans are asking themselves those questions right now. On the surface, Shields and the Rays look like a perfect fit. He is young and still in the prime of his career. Shields has proven to be healthy and durable since joining the Rays. He is signed through this year, with team friendly options through 2014 at $7, $9 and $12 million per year respectively from 2012-14. In baseball they say you can never have too much pitching. If that is the case, then some feel the Rays should consider stockpiling their pitchers and building their team from strength. But that is a narrow view of major league teams and how they operate. Let’s take a look at our five top reasons for the Rays to trade James Shields right now:
1) Sell at the Peak
You never know what the future will bring, so sometimes it is important to live in the moment. Shields, while a steady and consistent pitcher, is currently pitching at the highest level of his career. The Rays will need to determine if he has truly broken out or merely playing above his head. The value for Shields may never get higher than it is today. As well, teams contending for the playoffs may be willing to pay more at the deadline than the offseason for Shields. The Rays, if feeling especially lucky, could request the addition of either Mike Leake or Travis Wood to the trade mix from the Reds.
2) Numbers Game: Rotation Log Jam
The Rays have been known for acquiring, developing and stockpiling pitchers in their system. This past offseason was no different, as the Rays traded
away top starter Matt Garza to the Cubs for a package of prospects, including Christopher Archer and Sam Fuld. With Jeremy Hellickson ready, willing and able to join the big club, the Rays needed to clear room for their next future star pitcher. Hellickson, combined with David Price, Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann form a formidable one through four punch in the rotation. Based on their age and salaries, none of these starters will likely be going anywhere soon. While Alex Cobb has been brought in for temporary measure to the majors, Matt Moore just got the call to join AAA Durham in anticipation of joining the Rays rotation soon. Moore, one of the top-five pitching prospects in baseball, will not likely be kept on the farm too long given his dominance over minor league hitters to-date. That is how the baseball system works. Prospects are developed and either traded for veterans or take over for departed veterans from major league teams. As the Rays have no intention of trading Moore, a spot will have to open up for him. Unfortunately for James Shields, he is the veteran most likely to go. From there, it will only be a matter of time before Archer is ready to join the big club and the cycle will continue.
3) Dollars and Cents
It is no secret that the Rays are on a very tight budget. Low attendance figures, despite continued recent major league success including a World Series appearance in 2008, has meant that the Rays cannot afford to hang onto high priced veterans. Shown the door in recent years were Carlos Pena, Matt Garza and Rafael Soriano, among others for financial considerations. While James may have what is considered a team friendly contract, paying him close to $10 million or so per year for each of the next three seasons does not work for the Rays budget. Moore, combined with Alonso and Grandal, would fill three positions for the Rays at a combined salary that will be a fraction of what Shields makes. In other words, Shields is a luxury that the Rays cannot afford and can fill quite adequately within at a cheaper cost. While we do not like to think about the economics of the game, it can drive roster decisions on the same level as talent and ability.
4) Innings- Wear and Tear
James Shields is starting to enter a zone that many MLB teams dread. The 200-innings per season for over five seasons club. While an informal group,
there has been much talk in baseball circles that most pitchers after their first 1000 innings pitched have a high risk of injuries and decline. Pitchers like Brandon Webb and to a lesser extent Ben Sheets, are shown as examples of modern pitchers that have arm/shoulder problems after pitching many major league innings over a span of 5+ years. While Shields has not shown any risks yet of developing injuries, his numbers going into this season were of concern for the Rays. So while Shields is having a Cy Young caliber season, the Rays may be fearful that he will be susceptible to injuries or declining performance very soon.
5) Pitchers Need Run Support
In the same way a fast car needs a powerful engine and reliable tires, a major league team needs both offense and strong pitching. The current build of the Rays is starting to mirror the San Francisco Giants. Great young pitching but not enough hitting. The Rays can stockpile as much pitching as they like, but if they cannot score runs they will have a difficult time making the playoffs, let alone win a World Series title. Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal are two superstar bats in the making that the Rays desperately need and do not have in their own system. The expression goes that teams “develop pitching and buy bats.” In this case, the Rays will be taking to buying the bats that they themselves cannot produce. With a starting lineup of nine hitters, that Rays will be instantly filling over 20% of their lineup by way of this trade. The hit the rotation by losing Shields would be absorbed by the addition of Matt Moore to the major league club. But the boost to the team’s offense as a result of the addition of Alonso and Grandal is invaluable.
Verdict: The bottom line is that the Tampa Bay Rays are in a quandary. James Shields is the heart and soul of their pitching staff, the go-to guy who has earned his nickname of “big game.” But as the most expensive starter on the staff, with the team’s top prospect almost ready to receive the call to the show and the team desperately needing good young hitting, the Rays have no choice but to consider moving Shields at the trade deadline. As the team is still in contention, management will have to be careful of not sending a message that they are throwing in the towel on the season. But to get the biggest reward, the team will have to pay a big price. It will be difficult in the short-term to accept the trade of James Shields from Tampa Bay. But considering the hitting that the Reds would be sending to the Rays, this is a deal that the Rays cannot afford to miss out on. Keep an eye on Tampa Bay as the team will continue to improve, get younger at a competitive payroll come deadline day and still remain in contention. If this is truly James Shield’s last week in a Rays uniform, please be sure to catch his last start live or on television from Oakland this coming Wednesday July 27th. With Desmond Jennings and Dane De La Rosa just recalled by the Rays from AAA, the cycle of player and prospect replenishment has already begun again in Tampa Bay.
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Jair Jurrjens: Braves Ace of the Future or Trade Candidate?
Wednesday July 20, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): Now that the trade deadline is fast approaching, teams in contention are scrambling to find the pieces they desperately need to reach the playoffs. Teams that are out of contention are scouring other teams’ minor league affiliates in search of suitable trade partners. One man who is terribly busy fielding on calls on one of his biggest talents is the GM of the Atlanta Braves, Frank Wren. Opposing GMs have coveted his ace pitcher, Jair Jurrjens over the past few years. But now that Jurrjens has developed into a solid dependable pitcher who has exceeded his potential, Wren’s phone will be ringing right up until the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline.
Why Atlanta should hold on to their ace
Jair Jurrjens is young and controllable with an inexpensive contract. He is an inning eater, and a dependable arm that will give 6+ innings per game. Jurrjens is in his fourth full season, with the key variable that many people forget is that he is only 25 years old. At the halfway mark of this season, Jurrjens has a 12-3 record with a sparkling 2.26 ERA. Jair also induces a ton of ground balls, with a GB% of 48.2. When a guy can throw strikes consistently, it makes it much easier to be successful. Three walks per nine innings is a pretty good career mark, and he has seemingly improved almost every year, as Jurrjens currently sits at a 2.10 BB/9 for 2011. A young, controllable ace that is continually improving might be something that the Braves want to hold onto. Further, the Braves should even consider giving a long-term extension to Jurrjens given what he means to the ballclub.
Why Atlanta should trade Jurrjens
Why would a contending team trade their ace, you might ask? Well, a guy like Jurrjens might be overachieving for a few reasons. First of all, the velocity on his fastball has dipped every season since his rookie campaign. His average fastball was once 93 mph, whereas it sits at 89 now. Now this could mean a couple of things, such as he has learned how to pitch and doesn’t need the velocity. However, his extra reliance on his change-up and slider; each of them up in usage about 3% over previous years, tells me that he knows his fastball isn’t quite as effective. Jurrjens doesn’t strike many guys out, and there is almost no way that he can maintain a 4.1% homerun per fly ball rate. His xFIP is exactly a run and a half higher than his ERA at 3.76, so a measure of his performance has been attributed to luck. Numbers can be sometimes be deceiving and in Jurrjens case, he might not be as good as his statistics appear to show. Sometimes its good to maximize a return when the market is at its peak and Jurjjens may very well be sitting at the top of his ceiling of potential. Otherwise, if Jurrjens does regress, he value will never be higher than it is at the moment.
Which teams could trade for Jurrjens
If the Detroit Tigers are willing to give up a ton of prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez, I believe they would do the same for Jurrjens. Same goes with the Red Sox and Yankees. Detroit has at least kicked the tires on many starting pitchers, including Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, and Jeremy Guthrie. I see Jurrjens as an upgrade over those pitchers, so it would take a decent package to steal him away. The Rockies covet four top prospects for Jimenez, so I don’t see why the Braves wouldn’t try to get at least three top prospects for Jurrjens. He may not have the electric stuff that Ubaldo has, but he certainly has a track record of success.
Another fit to trade for Jurrjens that may fly under the radar could be the Indians. Mitch Talbot and Fausto Carmona have
underperformed, and they desperately need an upgrade if they are to contend. This could cause a bidding war for Jurrjens. I can see righty Alex White, lefty Drew Pomeranz and outfielder Nick Weglarz being involved in such a deal. Prospects Jacob Turner (RHP), Andy Oliver (LHP) and Nick Castellanos (3B) may be included in a potential deal with Detroit.
In the NL, if the St. Louis Cardinals decide to make a push in the wide open Central Division, they may be looking at starting pitching help. Kyle McLellan and Jake Westbrook have both struggled, so it could be a possibility they get in the mix. Third baseman Zack Cox and starting pitcher Shelby Miller are possible candidates to be moved in such a scenario.
Verdict
Atlanta doesn’t appear to be actively shopping Jurrjens, but it would be in their best interest to at least gauge the interest of other teams. The Braves could get a return for Jurrjens that would be impossible to refuse. With some of the prospects named, the Braves could still contend, and restock their system for years to come. Until then, we expect Jurrjens to remain a Brave unless Frank Wren gets blown away a trade proposal. With the active trade winds blowing this year and numerous contending teams desperate for starting pitching help, anything is possible.
Editor’s Note: Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. Rob was selected from the many candidates who applied to write for MLB reports. Please feel free to leave comments and to welcome Rob aboard. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Carlos Beltran to the Giants: Mets Likely to Trade Slugger to San Fran
Tuesday July 19, 2011
MLB reports: The MLB rumor mill is working overtime as the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31st quickly approaches. With less than two weeks to go, the speculation is heating up as to which players will be changing uniforms. Francisco Rodriguez is already a Brewer and Jeff Keppinger was just traded to the Giants. But rumors persist that the Mets and Giants are not finished with their activity. With both superstars Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran eligible for free agency at the end of the season, talk is that one or both players will be moved out of New York. With the possibility of the Mets trying to retain Reyes, the most likely scenario is Carlos Beltran changing addresses. At the center of the speculation is the San Francisco Giants. The defending World Series champions have been simply atrocious this year offensively. With their cleanup hitter Buster Posey out for the season, the team cannot afford to miss out on the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes.
The Giants were very fortunate to win the World Series last year. The playoffs are a tough road and requires the perseverance normally of a balanced team to make it to the end. The Giants, while solid in the pitching department, were essentially using smoke and mirrors to score runs last year. The team relied on the likes of Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Freddy Sanchez on offense. While useful role players, these players are not the big sluggers that are supposed to win championships. Now with Buster Posey out, the Giants are forced to rely on Eli Whiteside, Miguel Tejada, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell and company to score the team’s runs. Possessing one of the best, if not the best pitching staff in baseball, the Giants can ill-afford to limit itself offensively and essentially waste such strong pitching. To defend its championship, the Giants will have no choice but to beef up their offense.
Carlos Beltran has been one of the most consistent hitters in the game over the course of his career. Taking a look at his numbers, we see a consistently high level of production:
| Year | Tm | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | KCR | 58 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 3 | .276 |
| 1999 | KCR | 663 | 112 | 194 | 22 | 108 | 27 | .293 |
| 2000 | KCR | 372 | 49 | 92 | 7 | 44 | 13 | .247 |
| 2001 | KCR | 617 | 106 | 189 | 24 | 101 | 31 | .306 |
| 2002 | KCR | 637 | 114 | 174 | 29 | 105 | 35 | .273 |
| 2003 | KCR | 521 | 102 | 160 | 26 | 100 | 41 | .307 |
| 2004 | TOT | 599 | 121 | 160 | 38 | 104 | 42 | .267 |
| 2004 | KCR | 266 | 51 | 74 | 15 | 51 | 14 | .278 |
| 2004 | HOU | 333 | 70 | 86 | 23 | 53 | 28 | .258 |
| 2005 | NYM | 582 | 83 | 155 | 16 | 78 | 17 | .266 |
| 2006 | NYM | 510 | 127 | 140 | 41 | 116 | 18 | .275 |
| 2007 | NYM | 554 | 93 | 153 | 33 | 112 | 23 | .276 |
| 2008 | NYM | 606 | 116 | 172 | 27 | 112 | 25 | .284 |
| 2009 | NYM | 308 | 50 | 100 | 10 | 48 | 11 | .325 |
| 2010 | NYM | 220 | 21 | 56 | 7 | 27 | 3 | .255 |
| 2011 | NYM | 328 | 54 | 94 | 14 | 59 | 3 | .287 |
| 14 Seasons | 6575 | 1160 | 1855 | 294 | 1121 | 292 | .282 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 621 | 110 | 175 | 28 | 106 | 28 | .282 | |
| KCR (7 yrs) | 3134 | 546 | 899 | 123 | 516 | 164 | .287 | |
| NYM (7 yrs) | 3108 | 544 | 870 | 148 | 552 | 100 | .280 | |
| HOU (1 yr) | 333 | 70 | 86 | 23 | 53 | 28 | .258 | |
| NL (8 yrs) | 3441 | 614 | 956 | 171 | 605 | 128 | .278 | |
| AL (7 yrs) | 3134 | 546 | 899 | 123 | 516 | 164 | .287 | |
His resume speaks for itself. Beltran is a 1999 AL Rookie of the Year. He has won four Gold Gloves for his defensive work in the outfield. He won two silver slugger awards. A lifetime .282 AVG, .360 OBP and .495 SLG. In 2004 he hit the magical 30/30 mark (30 home runs, 30 stolen bases), and was actually two home runs short of 40/40. For the most part, Beltran in his prime could do it all. Hit home runs, hit for average, steal bases, catch and throw the ball like few players could. One of the few true five-tool players in the game. The aberrations we find in Beltran’s statistics were the last two years. Due to various injuries, particularly knee woes, Carlos Beltran was forced to miss much of the last two seasons and saw his production sharply decline. Now healthy and extremely motivated, Beltran has come back in a big way.
Beltran played in his sixth All-Star game this year in Arizona. While he rarely steals bases these days, the rest of Beltran’s game has returned as shown by his numbers. The only issue surrounding Beltran is whether his knee will hold up for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. From there, a team will need to determine his long-term health and abilities in awarding him a free agent contract. But from all indications, Beltran is a player that can still play ball at the highest level when healthy. An ideal fit for the Giants that lineup that desperately needs run production.
How bad has the Giants offense been in 2011? Going into tonight, the Giants as a team are hitting .243, with a .309 OBP and .363 SLG.
The team has collectively hit 63 home runs and scored 356 runs. Yet somehow the team continues to sit in first place in the NL West, 3.5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks. If not for Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Brian Wilson and the rest of the Giants pitching staff, the Giants would be in the basement of the division. The run of the Giants over the past two seasons has been incredible, but clearly linked to its pitching. To support its pitchers and put runs on the board, the Giants have to step up and beef up its offense. While Jeff Keppinger is a useful player, he will not be enough to get the job done. Rather, the Giants need to acquire a bomber, the way the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday a couple of years ago in their playoff run. Or closer to home, when the Astros acquired Carlos Beltran in 2004. Beltran hit an incredible 8 home runs during the Astros playoff drive that year. Coincidentally, Beltran was an impending free agent that year as well. Fast forward to 2011 and the very same Carlos Beltran is available. Having a fantastic campaign, Beltran in 2011 has hit .287 to-date, with 14 home runs, league leading 28 doubles, with a .381 OBP and .512 SLG. Again during a free agency year. Definite playoff calibre numbers and a perfect fit out west in San Francisco.
The Giants and Carlos Beltran are well suited for one another. San Francisco needs a strong cleanup hitter. Carlos Beltran wants to compete for a World Series championship and boost his free agency stock for one more prime contract. The odds of getting a ring don’t get any better than joining the defending world champions. Some experts have speculated that Beltran may not waive his no-trade protection to join the Giants. I am not buying that theory. The Giants are a terrific organization to play for, with highly regarded management, a fantastic ballpark in a beautiful city, and are one of baseball’s most historical and treasured teams. Beltran would look fantastic in a Giants uniform. What better way to showcase his abilities and earn his last free agency contract than by playing for a contender and fighting for a World Series championship.
Remember 1994, the year that Beltran was traded from Kansas City to Houston and played like a man possessed in nearly single-handedly leading the Astros to the World Series. That performance, combined with his numbers to-date, earned Beltran that off-season a 7-year, $119 million contract from the Mets. Now Beltran is on the cusp of free agency again and has the potential to “earn his pay” so to speak with the Giants in the same manner that he did with the Astros in 1994. With Scott Boras as his agent, Beltran will surely receive the advice that playoff performance equals free agency dollars.
The Giants will have a choice in making a pitch to the Mets for Carlos Beltran. They will either have to absorb the majority of the contract and provide fairly decent prospects, or have the Mets absorb a large chunk of money and offer 1-2 elite prospects in return. The Giants are well stocked in the minors and have excellent pitching at the major league level. The Mets may request Jonathan Sanchez off the major league roster or a combination of minor leaguers from the farm. Outfielder Thomas Neal and pitcher Zack Wheeler could be on the Mets wish-list. Or perhaps the Giants will be able to give up a package of lower level prospects and not lose their top prospects and major league level. The decision will boil down to the money involved and players offered by other teams in trade packages.
At the end of the day, much like the Yankees must acquire Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies (see our recent feature), the Giants have no choice but to trade for Carlos Beltran. The Yankees cannot afford to waste their superior offense without enough top-level pitching and the Giants in turn, need to surround their talented pitching staff with consistent run production. It is a lot of pressure to have a team win 2-1, 3-1 games night-in and night-out. Carlos Beltran has proven that he can carry a team on his back when he is on his game. Well, in 2011 he is definitely playing at his highest level in years. Beltran needs the Giants for his next contract and a chance for a ring, while the Giants need his bat and glove to increase their chances of a championship. The perfect marriage, expect Beltran to be a Giant by the end of July. This acquisition makes too much sense for the Giants and Brian Sabean will continue to stock his team on route to a possible back-to-back World Series run for the Giants. Carlos Beltran to the Giants. Not a question of if, just a question of when.
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Ubaldo Jimenez to the Yankees? Rockies May Move Ace to the Bronx
Saturday July 16, 2011
MLB reports: As an unbelievable as it may seem, there has been talk in baseball circles that the Rockies are taking calls on their ace pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez. Start after start, game after game last year, Jimenez for the majority of 2010 was as unhittable as they come. Despite coming back down to earth in the 2nd half, Jimenez last year appeared in his first All-Star game and finished 3rd in the NL CY Young voting. He also pitched the very first no-hitter in Rockies history on April 17, 2010. With a young Rockies team that was expected to contend in 2011, the 27-year old Dominican Jimenez was expected to anchor the team. Now sitting with a 45-49 record, 8.5 games out of 1st in the NL West, the Rockies are on the fence as to whether they still have playoff aspirations this year. Further, the team’s brass needs to decide whether Jimenez is a part of those aspirations and future playoff runs. Media outlets have speculated that the Yankees are quietly making a run at Jimenez. There is a strong probability the trade could happen, but in my estimation, the Rockies would be making a colossal error if they do.
There is no denying the strength and ability of Ubaldo Jimenez. As the pitcher has slowly improved every year, especially noting his strong 2009 and 2010 campaigns, the hurler clearly has a world of potential. Taking a look at his numbers, the results speak for themselves:
| Year | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 0 | 0 | 3.52 | 7.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1.043 |
| 2007 | 4 | 4 | 4.28 | 82.0 | 70 | 37 | 68 | 1.305 |
| 2008 | 12 | 12 | 3.99 | 198.2 | 182 | 103 | 172 | 1.435 |
| 2009 | 15 | 12 | 3.47 | 218.0 | 183 | 85 | 198 | 1.229 |
| 2010 | 19 | 8 | 2.88 | 221.2 | 164 | 92 | 214 | 1.155 |
| 2011 | 5 | 8 | 4.08 | 110.1 | 101 | 43 | 99 | 1.305 |
| 6 Seasons | 55 | 44 | 3.60 | 838.1 | 705 | 363 | 754 | 1.274 |
| 162 Game Avg. | 14 | 11 | 3.60 | 212 | 178 | 92 | 191 | 1.274 |
With pitching at such a shortage, many baseball analysts are scratching their heads as to how the Rockies could possibly think about trading Jimenez. The San Francisco Giants proved last year that the World Series could be won almost exclusively on the strength of pitching. Tim Lincecum. Matt Cain. Madison Bumgarner. Jonathan Sanchez. The Giants had so many weapons to throw against its opponents every night and good young pitching at the end of day beats good hitting much of the time. The Rockies, ravaged by injuries and inconsistent performances, are unlikely to reach the postseason this year. But in the management of the team, the present and future must be considered. Look at Felix Hernandez on Seattle, Roy Halladay on the Phillies and Lincecum on the Giants. Every team that is trying to build a winner needs a stud pitcher at the top of its rotation. Jimenez is that guy for the Rockies and losing him on the roster will be a hole that will be difficult, to impossible to fill.
So given the positives that Jimenez brings to the table, the issue remains how and why the Rockies could possibly consider moving him. There are a couple of main reasons in my estimation. Part of the equation is the performance of Jimenez this season. While he has been good, Jimenez for the most part has not been great. His record this year is far off from his most recent seasons, despite a strong rebound in his last few starts. Given his inconsistencies in 2011, the Rockies may be getting a little worried and looking to sell high before Jimenez starts to decline and/or injured. But given his strong resume to date, young age and rebound recently, I would like to think the Rockies are more intelligent than that. Players have their ups and downs, at all levels. It happens. Without a larger body of work for reference, it is almost impossible to reason that Jimenez is on his way down. His recent numbers tend to show otherwise. So while Jimenez may not be the same pitcher that we saw in early 2010, he is still the ace of the team.
So why the reports of trade talk with the Yankees? I will give you two words. Cliff Lee. The same Cliff Lee that was all set to be traded last year from the
Mariners to the Yankees in a package including Jesus Montero. The deal was completed to the level that major media outlets were announcing the trade as fact. As the story goes on that one, the Mariners played the Yankees against the Rangers and took a package from Texas built around prospect Justin Smoak at the very last-minute. The Yankees were fuming to the level that they contacted the higher-ups in Seattle to complain about the conduct of their GM, Jack Zduriencik. The fallout was the Rangers making it to the World Series and the Yankees left at the altar without their prize. As a further dagger, Lee in his decision to sign with the Rangers or Yankees this past offseason, ended up going to the Phillies at the last-minute. Again, the mystery team coming at the last second out of the woods and the Yankees were left standing with egg on their face.
Do not underestimate the New York Yankees. They are the strongest and one of the proudest teams in baseball. The Yankees and their fans do not like to be left disappointed in the constant search for top talent. With Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia sitting in their rotation, the Yankees are clearly itching to make a move to bolster their rotation. While names like Jeremy Guthrie, Derek Lowe and Bronson Arroyo being thrown around, it starts to shed some light as to where the Jimenez talk is coming from. This is the Yankees and they do not like shopping at the Ford dealership. This is a team built on Mercedes and BMW’s. The problem is that the top cars, i.e. ace pitchers, are not readily available. After making runs at Felix Hernandez and Francisco Liriano, the Yankees are still in search of a strong #2 to compliment ace CC Sabathia. Considering that Sabathia can opt out of his contract during the coming offseason and possibly leave New York, the pressure is even greater to land a top starting pitcher. From all the names that have been tossed around, the one that makes the most sense is Ubaldo Jimenez.
When Jimenez is on his game, he is as Cliff Lee-like as you can get. Jimenez is a horse that has the potential to pitch a complete game shutout almost every game out. This is the type of numbers that the Yankees are looking for. Rather than waiting to what comes in free agency, the Yankees are trying to hedge their bets and make a run now. Any package for Jimenez will be built around uber-prospect Jesus Montero. Considering his strong bat, Montero could move from catcher to first base to replace the aging Todd Helton. The Rockies still have faith in their own young catcher, Chris Iannetta, who has taken longer to develop than expected. Montero would be great insurance and an almost guaranteed monster bat, in addition to the other prospects that would be headed to Colorado. A win-win for both teams if it happens, considering the bodies that would be moving as part of the trade. But still not quite if you consider the value of Jimenez to the Rockies.
Other teams will sniffing around Jimenez as well. The Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, Angels and Rangers could all be considered in the mix. Jimenez would not come cheap and if the Rockies are smart, they will auction him off to the highest bidder. At the end of the day, this is a trade that the Yankees have to make. With little to no other options on the market, the Yankees have to overpay for Jimenez or risk failing to win a World Series despite the highest payroll in business. The Yankees lost out twice on Cliff Lee and need to do everything in their power to land an equivalent pitcher to their fold. While Ricky Romero or Jered Weaver would be nice acquisitions, realistically neither one will be made available by their respective teams. With Carlos Zambrano overpriced and inconsistent and Johan Santana a question mark for the season, at this point it is Jimenez or bust for the Yankees.
In considering this trade from a Rockies perspective, think how long the organization suffered from a pitching perspective. Despite always having strong hitting, the Rockies as an organization have been challenged to develop and maintain reliable pitching. Now that the Rockies have an ace in place, the team should be focusing on building around Jimenez rather than moving him. If the Rockies build their core of hitters and fail to have a deep and consistent starting rotation, the team will mean little come playoff time. The team will simply fall back into old habits and fail to adapt to the new Major League Baseball. With the steroid era past us, baseball is built around pitching and defense now for the most part. The Rockies, like every other team, needs good young pitching to contend. Jimenez has the potential to give them a high level of pitching for at least the next five years. If the Rockies feel they have a chance to contend during that time, they must hold onto him or risk setting themselves back even further.
Knowing that this is a trade that Yankees must make and the Rockies should pass on, the final question is whether this trade will happen. My heart says no,
but my brain says yes. Despite all the reasons that the Rockies should hold onto Jimenez, it appears in my estimation that the Yankees will make an offer that Colorado cannot refuse. In fighting for World Series titles in New York, all necessary resources have to be acquired at any cost. Considering that the Yankees will include Montero and 2-3 more top prospects, the Rockies will have a hard time saying no. Perhaps the Yankees will include a couple of top pitching prospects in the package that will allow for a smoother transition for Colorado. But the reality is, that while prospects are intriguing and desirable, they are far from a sure thing. For every Derek Jeter that is drafted, developed and becomes a future Hall of Fame player, there are 1000’s of Todd Van Poppel clones that come highly touted and burn out just as quick. Ubaldo Jimenez has the experience and numbers that are proven. While I am always skeptical of pitching, based on injury risk (see Stephen Strasburg), the potential risk in this case by keeping Jimenez is worth the reward of the potential for future playoffs. This will be the one case where I advocate that a team hold onto their starting pitcher rather than cash in for prospects. But it is also the case where there is extreme speculation and rumors and I foresee the trade occurring. The Yankees are the Yankees for a reason. They usually get what they want. They want Ubaldo Jimenez and before July is done, he very well could be in pinstripes.
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