Tuesday November 15, 2011
Sam Evans:If you haven’t heard already, on Monday, Major League Baseball announced the rookie of the year winners. Craig Kimbrel won the NL ROY, and Jeremy Hellickson won the AL ROY. Let’s look at the winners and whether or not each deserved their respective awards.
Craig Kimbrel: National League Rookie of the Year:
Craig Kimbrel received a whopping 32 out of 32 first place votes, becoming the 17th player to receive all first place votes. In my opinion, the Atlanta Braves closer Kimbrel definitely deserved this award. He was not only extremely impressive to the eye, but the numbers backed it up. Kimbrel finished with 18 earned runs in 77 innings. He finished with 46 saves and struck out 14.84 K/9. Coming in second place was Kimbrel’s teammate Freddie Freeman with 70 votes, but no first place votes.
I would usually be hesitant to give a closer the award over a player who plays every day. However, Craig Kimbrel is just downright filthy. He might have the best curveball in baseball, and he is only 23 years old. It is impressive for a young flame throwing reliever to be consistent throughout the whole regular season. Not to mention, Braves Manager Fredi González, probably used Kimbrel more than he should have. This was evidenced when Kimbrel had a rough last month of the season with an ERA of 4.76. It should be noted that Kimbrel threw more innings in 2011 then he threw in any one year throughout the minors. Overall, I think that the voters made the right decision here. Kimbrel was the best reliever in all of baseball and was a very valuable asset to his team.
Jeremy Hellickson: American League Rookie of the Year
Hellickson received 17 out of 28 first place votes. This award was a surprise to a lot of people, including Hellickson,””I guess I was a little surprised, there was a handful of guys I think all had the same amount of chance to win.” If you remember back to September, I wrote that I thought Mark Trumbo should win the AL ROY. Well, I admit that I changed my mind since then. I came to the conclusion that either Michael Pineda or Eric Hosmer were more deserving of the award. Trumbo came in second place with 63 votes (5 1st place votes), thirty-nine behind Hellickson.
I can’t say that I was surprised when I heard that Hellickson won the award. After all, he pitches in by far, the strongest division in the league, he almost threw 200 innings, and he had an ERA under 3.00. Unfortunately, when you take a closer look at his peripherals, Hellickson really didn’t have the year that his standard numbers suggest. He had a SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) of 4.63 and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.44. Who knows what Hellickson’s numbers would have looked like without an outstanding defense behind him! He only struck out 5.57 batters per nine innings, and an 82 LOB %. What these numbers tell us is that Hellickson really had luck on his side and he likely wasn’t even the best rookie pitcher in his division.
I’m not so sure that Hellickson deserved this award. I’m not saying he didn’t have an amazing year helping lead the Rays to the playoffs. I just think that their were stronger candidates to win the ROY award in the AL.
Monday September 12, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern Candidate- MLB reports): With the regular season coming to an end, it’s time to start looking at baseball’s awards. The American League Rookie of the Year will definitely not be an easy choice for BBWAA voters. Even though the top candidates are pretty clear, there is still about 20 games left for most teams. This last month is important for candidates to solidify their numbers and argument for the award. Here is my opinion on who should win the award.
Three of the five last winners of the AL ROY award have been pitchers. When choosing who I think deserves the award one of my key requirements is playing time. In my opinion, a mediocre pitcher who pitched the whole season is more impressive than a position player who was only in the majors for half of the season. Also, I don’t think the team of the players record is important enough to be a consideration for voters. This award should be chosen for a player’s impact in the majors, not how hyped up of a prospect he is. So I’ll try to look past the shock value and breakdown some of the candidates.
Eric Hosmer: Kansas City Royals
Hosmer made his Royals debut on May 6th and has been the Royals starting first basemen ever since. For the year, Hosmer has batted .286/.334/.462 with 17 HR and 69 RBI’s. He has been the consistent middle of the order bat that the Royals have lacked ever since Carlos Beltran got traded.
Michael Pineda: Seattle Mariners
When Pineda was named the Mariners fifth starter right before the season started, most Mariners fans didn’t know what to expect. Michael was an American League All-star and has slid into the Mariners #2 starter spot. His numbers have tailed off a little as the season has gone on, but the Mariners still haven’t made the decision to shut him down. He has a 3.72 ERA in 167 innings with 171 strikeouts. That’s more than Jon Lester and Matt Cain. Also as his 3.42 FIP suggests he has actually been better than his ERA suggests. However, he has pitched in a pitcher’s park this year which have probably helped his numbers.
Ivan Nova: New York Yankees
Nova just barely has eligibility, but he has had a surprisingly solid season as one of the Yankees backend starters. He is 15-4 with a 3.94 ERA and 87 strikeouts in 144 innings. Obviously, the number that stands out is the fifteen wins, which is impressive for any pitcher. Still, with the Yankees offense wins aren’t a great stat to judge performance. Speaking for myself, I just don’t think his numbers are impressive enough to be the 2011 AL Rookie of the year.
Jeremy Hellickson: Tampa Bay Rays
Going into the season, there were pretty high expectations set for Hellickson. ESPN fantasy baseball teams were drafting him at an average of 163rd. He definitely has lived up to those assumptions and maybe even exceeded them. He is 12-10 with a 2.96 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 170 IP. Not to mention, he has done this while pitching in the toughest in baseball. He has had a lot of luck this season, as his 4.30 FIP and 4.57 xFIP suggest (courtesy of fangraphs.com). Also, he has the highest LOB% among all pitchers that have thrown over 100 innings.
Mark Trumbo: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
After the Angels received the news that Kendry Morales would start the year on the disabled list, the Angels first base options looked bleak. Trumbo was the favorite to win the job but wasn’t a very heralded prospect. Baseball America had him as the Angels 9th best prospect. Trumbo not only won the job, but he ran with it. On the season, he is hitting .256 with 26 HR and 80 RBI’s. He leads all rookies in homers, RBI’s, and SLG%( for rookies with more than 300 plate appearances). Not to mention, he has provided an above-average glove at first base. His batting average is not great, and his OBP% is under .300(.295), so he hasn’t been perfect this year. In the end, he has made contributions to his team unlike any other candidate.
I think Ackley and Jennings didn’t play enough games to deserve the award, and Walden has been too inconsistent. However, if Jennings were to lead the Rays to an improbable playoff spot, I think he should win the award or receive strong consideration by the voters.
If I had a vote at the end of the day, I would vote for Trumbo- with Pineda, and Hellickson following. There is still plenty of time left, but in my mind Mark Trumbo deserves the 2011 American League Rookie of the year award.
***Today’s feature was prepared by one of our intern candidates, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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Wednesday July 13, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern Candidate for MLB Reports): This year’s edition of the Midsummer Classic, the 2011 MLB All-Star Game, had a record-setting vote-getter. Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays received over 7.4 million votes in fan voting. This game was said to have lost some of its lustre due to the amount of players who elected not to participate. A total of eight players that were voted in by fans or chosen by coaches dropped out due to injury, timing or just plain wanting to rest. For the American League, David Price (TB), Derek Jeter (NYY), Mariano Rivera (NYY), Alex Rodriguez (NYY) and Jon Lester (BOS) all withdrew due to various ailments and injuries. Chipper Jones (ATL), Jose Reyes (NYM), and Placido Polanco (PHI) were the players who bowed out in the National League. One of Major League Baseball’s rules pertaining to eligibility for pitchers is that they must not start on the Sunday prior to the game. Due to this rule, CC Sabathia (NYY), James Shields (TB), Justin Verlander (DET), Felix Hernandez (SEA), Cole Hamels (PHI), and Matt Cain (SF) were ruled ineligible and unable to participate in the game.
Surely not having Price, Sabathia, Shields, Verlander, Hernandez and Rivera hurt the AL. Although he has had an impressive start to the season, CJ Wilson (TEX) probably should not have been pitching when he gave up the 3-run home run to Prince Fielder (MIL). It easily could have been one of those more accomplished aces as mentioned. However, that is the way it turned out, as the National League took advantage early and defeated the American League by a score of 5-1. The MVP of the game was Fielder, because of his huge home run that put the NL on top early and as it turned out, for good.
My pick for MVP was Roy Halladay (PHI), as he started for the National League and was dominant as only the Doc can be. He faced the minimum six batters over two innings, including Curtis Granderson (NYY), Adrian Gonzalez (BOS) and Jose Bautista (TOR); all potential MVP candidates. Halladay managed to throw only 19 pitches as part of his historical pitching performance.
In the 2nd inning, the defensive play of the game occurred when Brian McCann (ATL) hit a towering flyball in foul territory that Bautista caught as he slid into the wall. Aside from being one of the top home run hitters in baseall, Bautista is also an accomplished fielder who is capable of winning a gold glove at either third base or right field.
The scoring in the game started in the top of the 4th inning, when Adrian Gonzalez blasted a Cliff Lee (PHI) cutter over the right center field wall for a solo blast. The AL followed with three straight singles, the last of which was off Tyler Clippard (WAS). Hunter Pence fielded the ball and threw a laser to the plate to catch Bautista who tried to score from second for the third out. In the bottom of the inning, Carlos Beltran (NYM) and Matt Kemp (LAD) hit singles to set up Fielder`s massive bomb.
Jordan Walden (LAA), another player who probably didn`t deserve to play as much as the other big name starters, began to light up the radar gun last night, hitting 100 mph on his first four fastballs. Starlin Castro (CHC) came in to pinch run at first base after Troy Tulowitzki (COL) hit a leadoff single. Castro proceeded to immediately steal second and third base. He then set up another play at the plate, where Walden bare handed a weak ground ball by Rickie Weeks (MIL) and threw Castro out. Weeks stole second and came around to score when Andre Ethier (LAD) hit a single to right field, making the score 4-1.
The scoring continued in the bottom of the seventh inning when Pablo Sandoval (SF) hit a ground rule double over the wall in the left field corner. This scored Hunter Pence (HOU) after his leadoff single and a passed ball that allowed him to move to second base, and eventually score.
Fan favorite Brian Wilson (SF) came in the top of the nineth inning with runners on second and third. A fly out and ground out later, and the game was in the books. Make the final score 5-1, as the National League wins for the All-Star Game for the second year in a row and secures home field advantage for its league in the up coming World Series in the fall.
This year`s All-Star Festivities were enjoyed by so many fans, and continually impressed me. I have had a great time covering the 2011 All-Star Game, everything from the Futures Game, Home Run Derby and of course, the All-Star Game itself. With Major League Baseball now entering the dog days of summer and the secon half of the season, it is time to speculate on trades and the calling up of prospects. Pure heaven for this baseball writer!
***EDITOR’S NOTE: With Chase Field still buzzing, the trade market has already begun. The Milwaukee Brewers announced right after the game taht they had acquired closer Francisco Rodriguez and cash considerations from the New York Mets for two players to be named later. With the Brewers acquiring Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum in the offseason, clearly Milwaukee is going for it. Will be interesting to see if Brewers allow K-Rod’s $17.5 million option to vest for 2012, which is based on number of games finished in 2011. If K-Rod finishes 55 games, the option will vest. As he has already finsihed 34 this season, so the option could vest depending on how the Brewers use K-Rod and how close they remain to a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see what prospects go from Milwaukee to New York. Long-term this deal could hurt Milwaukee depending on which top prospects they give up. But in the short-term, this deal will make the Brewers’ fanbase happy and their slugging free agent to be, Prince Fielder, may have more thinking to do before selecting his new team for 2012. The ground work has been set with respect to the trade market. Now we will see if the K-Rod deal has indeed open the trading floodgates for the rest of baseball. ***
W: T. Clippard
L: C. Wilson
S: B. Wilson
|R Weeks 2B||3||1||0||0||0||1||12||.000||.000||.000|
B Phillips 2B
|C Beltran DH||2||1||1||0||0||1||7||.500||.500||.500|
a-A Ethier PH-DH
b-G Sanchez PH-DH
|M Kemp CF||2||1||1||0||1||0||15||.500||.667||.500|
A McCutchen CF
|P Fielder 1B||2||1||1||3||0||0||6||.500||.500||2.000|
J Votto 1B
|B McCann C||2||0||0||0||0||0||8||.000||.000||.000|
Y Molina C
c-J Bruce PH-RF
|L Berkman RF||1||0||1||0||0||0||3||1.000||1.000||1.000|
J Upton RF
M Montero C
|M Holliday LF||1||0||0||0||0||1||7||.000||.000||.000|
H Pence LF
|T Tulowitzki SS||2||0||1||0||0||0||5||.500||.500||.500|
S Castro PR-SS
|S Rolen 3B||2||0||0||0||0||2||8||.000||.000||.000|
P Sandoval 3B
|a-singled to right for C Beltran in the 5th
b-popped out to second for A Ethier in the 7th
c-struck out looking for Y Molina in the 8th
2B: Y Molina (1, C Perez); P Sandoval (1, B League)
HR: P Fielder (1, 4th inning off C Wilson 2 on, 0 Out)
RBI: P Fielder 3 (3), A Ethier (1), P Sandoval (1)
2-out RBI: A Ethier
All-Stars RISP: 3-8 (P Fielder 1-1, J Upton 0-1, S Rolen 0-1, B Phillips 0-1, R Weeks 0-1, A Ethier 1-1, G Sanchez 0-1, P Sandoval 1-1)
Team LOB: 3
SB: S Castro 2 (2, 2nd base off J Walden/A Avila, 3rd base off J Walden/A Avila); R Weeks (1, 2nd base off J Walden/A Avila)
CS: L Berkman (1, 2nd base by D Robertson/A Avila)
E: S Castro (1, throw); J Bruce (1, throw)
Outfield Assist: H Pence (J Bautista at Home).
First-pitch strikes/Batters faced: R Halladay 4/6; C Lee 4/8; T Clippard 1/1; C Kershaw 1/3; J Jurrjens 5/6; C Kimbrel 0/2; J Venters 2/2; H Bell 0/1; J Hanrahan 1/3; B Wilson 2/2
Called strikes-Swinging strikes-Foul balls-In Play strikes: R Halladay 4-3-2-5; C Lee 4-1-3-8; T Clippard 1-1-0-1; C Kershaw 1-1-2-2; J Jurrjens 3-5-3-4; C Kimbrel 1-2-4-1; J Venters 1-2-0-1; H Bell 1-0-0-1; J Hanrahan 1-2-4-2; B Wilson 1-1-1-2
Ground Balls-Fly Balls: R Halladay 3-2; C Lee 4-1; T Clippard 0-0; C Kershaw 2-0; J Jurrjens 2-2; C Kimbrel 1-0; J Venters 1-0; H Bell 0-1; J Hanrahan 0-0; B Wilson 1-1
Game Scores: R Halladay 57
|C Granderson CF||2||0||0||0||0||0||3||.000||.000||.000|
J Ellsbury CF
|A Cabrera SS||2||0||0||0||0||1||6||.000||.000||.000|
J Peralta SS
|A Gonzalez 1B||2||1||1||1||0||0||6||.500||.500||2.000|
M Cabrera 1B
M Young 3B
|J Bautista RF||2||0||1||0||0||0||5||.500||.500||.500|
C Quentin RF
|J Hamilton LF||2||0||1||0||0||0||4||.500||.500||.500|
M Joyce LF
|A Beltre 3B||2||0||1||0||0||0||10||.500||.500||.500|
K Youkilis 3B
M Cuddyer 1B
|D Ortiz DH||2||0||0||0||0||1||10||.000||.000||.000|
a-P Konerko PH-DH
|R Cano 2B||2||0||0||0||0||0||4||.000||.000||.000|
H Kendrick 2B
|A Avila C||2||0||0||0||0||0||7||.000||.000||.000|
M Wieters C
|a-walked for D Ortiz in the 7th|
HR: A Gonzalez (1, 4th inning off C Lee 0 on, 2 Out)
RBI: A Gonzalez (1)
2-out RBI: A Gonzalez
All-Stars RISP: 2-5 (M Joyce 1-1, A Beltre 1-1, H Kendrick 0-1, M Cuddyer 0-1, P Konerko 0-1)
Team LOB: 6
DP: 1 (A Avila-R Cano).
PB: M Wieters.
Outfield Assist: J Bautista (A Ethier at 2nd base).
First-pitch strikes/Batters faced: J Weaver 4/4; D Robertson 1/3; M Pineda 3/3; C Wilson 3/6; J Walden 2/4; C Perez 2/4; B League 3/5; A Ogando 2/2; G Gonzalez 1/1
Called strikes-Swinging strikes-Foul balls-In Play strikes: J Weaver 3-3-0-2; D Robertson 2-1-3-1; M Pineda 3-3-1-1; C Wilson 4-2-4-4; J Walden 2-3-5-3; C Perez 2-2-2-3; B League 1-4-4-4; A Ogando 2-0-1-2; G Gonzalez 2-1-0-0
Ground Balls-Fly Balls: J Weaver 1-1; D Robertson 0-1; M Pineda 0-1; C Wilson 0-2; J Walden 1-0; C Perez 0-2; B League 0-2; A Ogando 2-0; G Gonzalez 0-0
Game Scores: J Weaver 53
***Thank you to Rob Bland for preparing today’s article on the All-Star Game. You can follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox, click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
MLB reports: I get several messages a day on the state of the closers in major league baseball. Questions asking me which players have a closing job, which are about to lose their job and which players are most likely to get save opportunities. In my fantasy baseball days, I used to call it fishing for closers on the waiver wire: waiting for a closer to underperform and/or get injured and lose their job and immediately pick up the heir-apparent to the throne. How are the thirty major league teams doing in the closer department? Let’s take a closer look at each team and find out:
With seven saves in eight opportunities and a 1.93 ERA, Mo is as automatic as they come. Even at his advanced age, Mariano is a #1 fantasy closer, if not the top closer. Rafael Soriano is the next in-line, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
2) Colorado Rockies: Houston Street
Although health is often a concern with Street, seven saves in seven opportunities with a 2.03 ERA is not. Street has really come into his own in Colorado and as long as he can stay healthy, he is becoming nearly automatic out on the mound. Add in fourteen strikeouts and Street is as dangerous as they come. Lidstrom has been spectacular as well to start the year, but with health and performance issues surrounding him in the past, Lidstrom at best is a filler in case of an injury to Street. A solid #2, Lidstrom will form a solid 1-2 punch with Street all season long (on the field and likely on the DL at some point).
3) Atlanta Braves: Craig Kimbrel
The youngsters debate should be over. Six saves in seven opportunities and a 0.96 ERA. 2/14 BB/K ratio. Kimbrel is clearly the man in Atlanta. While Venters is very talented and the next in line should Kimbrel falter, the rope for Kimbrel grows by the day. Atlanta appears to have found its closer for the next decade.
4) Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez
With the hot start of the Indians, Perez has been enjoying the ride. Six saves in seven opportunities and a 2.25 ERA. One area for concern: four strikeouts in eight innings pitched. Although Perez is becoming craftier on the mound, low strikeouts for a closer generally leads to disaster. The Indians have some decent arms in the pen, including Rafael Perez. But the Perez of choice is Chris.
5) San Diego Padres: Heath Bell
The second coming of Trevor Hoffman, Bell is a perfect five for five in save opportunities with a 1.00 ERA. Having Bell on the Padres is like driving a brand new Mercedes while living in a bachelor apartment on the wrong side of the town. An unnecessary luxury in many observers’ estimation. Beware that a hot Bell will have trade rumors surround him all summer long. The Padres have literally 4-5 closing options in the pen, so this situation is far from settled if Bell is dealt. I could see Neshek, Qualls, Gregerson and Adams all getting their shot. For now Bell is a top five closer unless he leaves San Diego. If I had to watch one reliever it would be Neshek, who has come back from injury and could claim the job in the event he is called upon.
6) Los Angeles Dodgers: Jonathan Broxton
Broxton somehow is a perfect five for five in saves but with a 5.19 ERA, the end is likely coming near. The hope for many baseball analysts, including my own, is that Broxton can turn it around and reclaim his form. Kuo, once healthy, is the likely pick to take over the role. My dark horse pick is Mike MacDougal, the veteran who has extensive closing experience. A 1.13 ERA for MacDougal is outstanding, but his 5/6 BB/K ratio is nothing to write home about. Guerrier may also get a look, but Kuo is the consensus pick to take over at some point. I would like to sit here and guarantee that Broxton will recover and return to form, but I can’t promise that. It could happen, but with each passing rocky outing, even I am starting to have my doubts. My plan would be to remove Broxton from the role and let him work out in his kinks. In the interim I would insert MacDougal to steady the ship and then re-insert Broxton in July. That would be my plan, but not necessarily the same script for the Dodgers. Keep a look out as this mess is far from settled.
7) Philadelphia Phillies: Jose Contreras (Breaking News: Now Ryan Madson)
Running an eight inning scoreless run, a perfect five for five in saves opportunities with nine strikeouts, Contreras has become the man in Philadelphia. But running a close second is Ryan Madson, a 1.00 ERA and 2/10 BB/K ratio. The long-term solution is Madson and any hint of a Contreras downturn will insert Madson in the role. I expect this to happen any week now and once Madson becomes the closer, he should keep it until Papelbon joins the team next year (yes, it will happen). Please do not say Brad Lidge though, that story has been written and re-written too many times. Injuries and production problems is the story of Lidge. Hopefully the Phillies are smart and do not go down that road again. The moral of the story: Contreras today, Madson soon and Papelbon next year.
(P.S. As I am writing this, Contreras has been sent to Philadelphia for an exam and is on the DL. Ryan Madson is the closer, funny how quickly things can turn)
8) Kyle Farnsworth: Tampa Bay Rays
Another closer with a perfect five for five saves record, Farnsworth owns a 1.23 ERA and zero walks allowed on the season. I am not sure who this person on the mound is and what he has done with the real Kyle Farnsworth, but whoever this imposter is on the mound I would keep him. All kidding aside, I am a Farnsworth fan and have wished him well for years. But after watching him implode in nearly every stop on his major league tour, I remain somewhat skeptical. Jake McGee, my closer pick has started off slow but with improved numbers down the road could grab the job. Same with Peralta, although walks tends to hurt his value. The Rays will be riding Farnsworth like a rented mule until he cannot close anymore.
9) Neftali Feliz: Texas Rangers
Another five for five in saves opportunities, Feliz with a 1.08 ERA has a stranglehold on the job. Recently placed on the DL with a sore shoulder, the Rangers will turn to some combination of Darren Oliver and Darren O’Day , perhaps even Rhodes, until Feliz returns. Don’t sweat this one, Feliz will be back soon and continuing his climb to the top of the ranks of MLB closers in 2011. Of concern is Feliz’s 5/6 BB/K ratio, which will have to change for Feliz to be ultimately effective as the closer. Walks tend to do very bad things to closers in the 9th but based on the the talent in his arm, Feliz will be the go-to-guy this year again.
10) Brian Fuentes: Oakland Athletics
Fuentes was signed to be a solid lefty in the pen and fill-in closer for the A’s. Five for six opportunities, Fuentes has been steady for Oakland but sports a brutal 4.66 ERA. Just like Jonathan Broxton in LA, Fuentes is likely on borrowed time unless he becomes more automatic on the mound. Add a 5/7 BB/K ratio and the Andrew Bailey watch will continue in Oakland. While I see Bailey getting the job in the short-run, Fuentes will find a way to reclaim the job by the summer and possibly to the end of the year. Don’t look now though but Ziegler has not been scored upon this year and could put up a fight as well. Keep an eye on this situation as it unfolds.
11) Joel Hanrahan: Pittsburgh Pirates
Five for five in saves, 2/8 BB/K ratio and a 2.70 ERA translates to increased job security for Hanrahan. Much like Heath Bell, as Hanrahan performs well he becomes a luxury on a rebuilding Pirates team in need of prospects. Essentially keeping the seat warm for 2010 all-star Evan Meek, look for Hanrahan to be dealt sometime in the summer and for Meek to take over the closer’s role in 2011 and for the foreseeable future.
12) Brandon League: Seattle Mariners
Yet another closer that is five for five in saves, League is holding down the fort until the return of Dave Aardsma. The 3.68 ERA is ok, but three strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings is not. League has shown good control with only one walk, but changes are still likely coming in Seattle. Expect the Mariners to deal Aardsma and/or League during the summer if Aardsma can return and show health. Given that Aardsma is no guarantee, there is a good chance that League can keep the role for the majority of the year. But I would not bet on it given his shaky track record… I actually expect a dark horse to emerge at some point in this race.
13) Carlos Marmol: Chicago Cubs
Five for seven in saves, Marmol has the security of a long-term deal and is clearly the closer in Chicago. His 2.53 ERA is interesting, but more telling is his 7/15 BB/K ratio. Few closers can touch Marmol’s heat and if he could just lower his walks totals, he would become a top-five closer in baseball. But the walks will unlikely go away this year and expect some interesting moments with Marmol as he works towards 30+ saves in 2011. Kerry Wood is the next-in-line in case, think of him as Marmol insurance. Marshall has been steady as well and the one surprise is Samardzija with a 3.65 ERA, but his 14/14 BB/K ratio shows the heat is there but the control is not. But the Cubs are Marmol’s team.
14) Leo Nunez: Florida Marlins
Totals? Five for five in saves, which appears to be a standard at this point in the season. Nunez has a 2.00 ERA and is off to a hot start in Florida. As the summer months approach, I cannot see Nunez sustaining these numbers and a few bad outings could cost him his job very quickly. For a strong run, I appear the Marlins making a trade or picking a new horse for the job. Webb, Dunn and Hensley may all get looks this year, but are unlikely long-term solutions. Until then, the job is Nunez’s to lose.
15) Jonathan Papelbon: Boston Red Sox
For a guy on the heat seat, all Papelbon has done is go five for five in saves, with a 2.16 ERA and a 2/11 BB/K ratio. Papelbon is as automatic as they come and with his first run into free agency on the horizon, do not expect Papelbon’s role to change in 2011. Papelbon has an incentive to be a fantasy closing superstar and the Red Sox will happily ride him to first round picks as compensation in the off-season. While Bard is the heir-apparent with Bobby Jenks always lurking, do not expect this move to happen until 2012, unless injury strikes. Papelbon will look really good in Philadelphia next year. Remember you heard it here first.
16) J.J. Putz: Arizona Diamondbacks
Putz has been everything that Kirk Gibson could have imagined in Arizona and more. Five for five in saves (yes, another one), 1.13 ERA and 0/10 BB/K ratio. Expect Putz to be an all-star this year as he leads a young Diamondbacks team back to respectability. With no plan b’s on the horizon, Arizona will live by the Putz and die by the Putz.
17) Joakim Soria: Kansas City Royals
Ok…ok…ok…. let’s not get too excited people. Soria’s five saves in six opportunities comes along with a 5.59 ERA and a 5/5 BB/K ratio. Add ten hits allowed in 10 2/3 innings and you have some pretty ugly numbers for a top-three closer. With the three-headed monster of Collins, Crow and Jeffress looming, I can foresee some fans starting to call for the head of Soria as the Royals continue to excel. Don’t see it happening. I cannot see the Royals continuing their hot start and I cannot foresee anyone unseating the great Soria. The young Royals pitching squad needs Soria and unless he literally implodes, which I don’t see happening, Soria will be the closer for the next few years. As the Royals build to be contenders in the next 2-3 years, they will rely on a healthy and productive Soria to carry their bullpen. Soria is the Royals closer and do not get any other ideas on the subject.
18) Brian Wilson: San Francisco Giants
The Giants were the feel good story of 2011 and while the “fear the beard” motto was cute in its time, I think this story is done. Wilson has to get away from the beard and concentrate on what he does best: close ball games. Although five for six in saves this year, Wilson sports a brutal 7.94 ERA a pedestrian 4/6 BB/K ratio. The World Series champion Giants will give Wilson a lot of rope and I cannot foresee him losing his job. But with the World Series letdown could come a return to earth for several players, including Wilson. While he will still get 30+ saves, his numbers are showing that a market correct is in order. Wilson needs to get re-focused…he is the only game in town as the closer for the Giants.
19) Brandon Lyon: Houston Astros
The poster boy for mediocre closers, Lyon remains a frustration year-in and year-out. Four for six in saves opportunities, with a 4.32 ERA, 13 hits allowed in 8 1/3 inning and a dismal 2/3 BB/K ratio, Lyon is better suited to middle relief than closing. Lyon is a veteran on a young Astros team and while experience is supposed to help the young pitchers, his stats are hurting the team. With Melancon and Fulchino pitching so well, a changing of the guard is coming in Houston. Right now my money is on Melancon becoming the closer by May.
20) Francisco Rodriguez: New York Mets
Together with Papelbon, K-Rod had many doubters going into the year. Legal troubles and a declining team and numbers looked to spell the end for Rodriguez. His four saves in five opportunities has been great, together with his 2.35 ERA. His 6/13 BB/K ratio is showing that the arm and heat are back, but so is his wildness. K-Rod will get 30+ saves in my estimation, but may not so pretty getting there. Frankie is getting paid the big bucks and will have the job for 2011.
21) Jose Valverde: Detroit Tigers
The king of hot starts, Valverde has been four for four in saves on a very inconsistent Detroit Tigers team in 2011. His 1.04 ERA and 2/9 BB/K ratio have been spectacular. Valverde will have the job this year as he works towards another free agency run at seasons-end. Benoit is the closer in waiting and while he will have the job in 2012, will be the filler when called upon. The Tigers will stick with Valverde, period.
22) John Axford: Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching for a contending Brewers team, Axford’s numbers have not cut it this year. Three for five in saves, 7.36 ERA and a 6/8 BB/K ratio means that Axford is closing on borrowed time. I still expect Axford to get a little more rope to straighten himself out, but not for much longer. While Saito was my pick to take over the role at the start of the season, and poor health and inconsistency have plagued him. Same with LaTroy Hawkins, another failed closer in the Brewers’ pen. The dark horse for the role is Kameron Loe, the former Rangers starter and Japanese baseball survivor. Look for Loe, who has been the Brewers best reliever season to get the role any day now and to run with it into the forseeable future.
23) Drew Storen/ (Sean Burnett): Washington Nationals
I know your first reaction: is Sean Burnett not the closer? A 3.24 ERA, three for four in saves and 0/6 BB/K ratio- is that not closing numbers? Perhaps, but Burnett is like a mirage in the desert. You think you are seeing water, but its all an illusion. Storen with a 0.77 ERA, two for two in saves, six hits allowed in 11 2/3 innings and 4/8 BB/K ratio is the man. Storen has been groomed for the position is whole life and was drafted as a closer to become the Nationals ninth inning stopper. Burnett may still get the occasional opportunity but his saves opportunities are coming to an end. As Storen becomes nearly automatic, the job will be his for the next decade in Washington.
24) Matt Capps: Minnesota Twins
The Twins originally said they would bring Joe Nathan along slowly after missing a year due to surgery. What did they end up doing? Throwing him straight into the fire and destroying his pitching confidence and stats line. With a 9.82 ERA and 6/5 BB/K ratio, do not expect Nathan back in the role for a LONG time. Capps, acquired from Washington for catching prospect Ramos has now taken over the closing duties. Three for four in save opportunities, 4.09 ERA and a 0/5 BB/K ratio shows that Capps is ready to run with the job. Minnesota is well-known for steady starting pitching and I look for Capps to finish with a steady amount of saves. He may not blow hitters away anymore, but with continued control look for Capps to keep the job for most of 2011.
25) Francisco Cordero: Cincinnati Reds
For all the doom and gloom coming out of Cinci for Cordero, he has continued to put up great numbers. Three for three in saves, 2.00 ERA, a stingy five hits in nine innings pitched and 4/7 BB/K ratio. The changing of the guard is coming though for the Reds as you look at Chapman’s numbers. Throws 100+ MPH heat, nine scoreless innings, two hits in nine innings with a 7/9 BB/K ratio. This is another case that unless the incumbent implodes or gets injured, he will retain his role. The Reds rely on the Veteran Cordero and Dusty Baker is very loyal to his foot soldiers. Chapman is still showing wildness and the best course is to let him continue to develop as Cordero keeps saving games. A change is coming in 2012 but until then, Cordero is the Reds closer. If you like to gamble though, Chapman has a decent shot at the job… he is the heir apparent and the first reliever in line if needed.
26) Jon Rauch: Toronto Blue Jays
One of several new additions to the Jays pen, Rauch originally was supposed to keep the role warm for Frank Francisco until he returned from injury. Rauch on the season has a 2.08 ERA and is three for three in saves opportunities. While his 4/6 BB/K ratio is pedestrian, Rauch will have the job for the majority of the year in my opinion. While Francisco has the heat and the strikeout numbers, he has shown to be very inconsistent and erratic in the closers role from his time in Texas. Francisco will possibly get a shot at the role at some point early on this season, my money is still on Rauch. With so many closing options in Toronto including Dotel and Frasor, this situation is very difficult to handicap. At the end of the day, you either believe in Francisco or Rauch as the closer. My gut is saying Rauch.
27) Jordan Walden: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The next, great Angels closer, Walden has taken to the role and run with it. Ten scoreless innings, three for three in saves, three hits allowed in 9 1/3 innings and a 5/10 BB/K ratio are all impressive. Fernando Rodney, the veteran closer will be breathing down his neck the whole season. If not for his 8/7 BB/K ratio, Rodney has a 2.08 ERA of his own and only blown save on the season. As with all young pitchers, Walden will run into some trouble along the way. The question will be how he handles adversity. This is one team that I have faced several arguments on this season. I see Rodney taking back his job while Walden continues to be groomed into the next big thing. For me, experience and knowledge tends to usually win out and Rodney has an advantage in both departments over Walden. The job is Walden’s today and for quite some time, but 2-3 blown saves in a week can change things in a hurry. Another situation to keep an eye on.
28) Mitchell Boggs: St. Louis Cardinals
Where is Ryan Franklin? One for five in save opportunities and with a 7.88 ERA. Complaining about the fans of St. Louis won’t appease Cardinals management either. The 27-year-old Boggs is the newest closer on the carousel, with two saves in two opportunities, 1.59 ERA and outstanding 3/13 BB/K ratio. There are many people jumping on the Boggs bandwagon and for good reason. The kid is apparently coming into his own and has taken the job by the reigns. As is the case with Walden, we do not have enough of a track record to know the long-term potential of the kid. Again, 2-3 blown saves in a week can change the situation in a hurry. I still expect Franklin to straighten himself out and perhaps reclaim the job later in the year. But based on his solid work to-date, the closer in St. Louis is Boggs and the job is literally his to lose. Keep one eye open, just in case.
29) Kevin Gregg: Baltimore Orioles
Pitching in the Brandon Lyon sea of mediocrity, Gregg has been up-and-down this year for the upstart Orioles. Two saves in three opportunities, 4.50 ERA, and 4/6 BB/K ratio are nothing to write home about. Mike Gonzalez with a 10.80 ERA does not appear to be healthy and recovered to be able to compete for the role. Jeremy Accardo has a 2.08 ERA but an alarming 6/4 BB/K ratio. Koji Uehara, with a 1.35 ERA and 3/7 BB/K ratio is my pick for the Orioles closing job when Gregg inevitably begins to break down. The Orioles are lucky to have several options, with Simon originally being my original dark horse until legal troubles slowed down his season. But based on track history, I really like Uehara’s chances to claim the job by June, if not sooner.
30) (Jesse Crain): Chicago White Sox
I certainly saved the worst for last and the White Sox have had their share of bullpen woes in 2011. With one team on the season, Sale and Thornton have not been the saviors that Sox fans were expecting this year. With ERAs north of 6.00, neither one is likely to take the role anytime soon. Ohman and Pena have been fairly weak as well and the last two realistic survivors are Santos and Crain. Much press has been written on Santos, the converted pitcher who has pitched 9 2/3 scoreless innings with five hits allowed a 5/13 BB/K ratio. While many experts are already picking Santos, I am looking at the dark horse, Jesse Crain to take the role. The former Twin had a steady 2010 year and has started this year with a 1.74 ERA and spectacular 2/11 BB/K ratio. Santos is the darling of Chicago with his flame throwing ways, but the more experienced Crain appears to be just what the doctor ordered in Chicago. A situation that is far from unsettled, Thornton or Sale could grab a hold of the job at any time with some steady consecutive outings. But based on current numbers and future outlook, if you want my pick- it will be Crain. With such a strong offense and steady starting pitching, the Sox cannot afford to lose too many games in the 9th if they hope to take the AL Central. That is where a veteran as the anchor will prove to be best solution in the bullpen.
The state of closers is always a heated discussion in baseball circles every year. Probably the most volatile position in baseball, approximately 30% of opening day closers will still have their jobs by years-end. With injuries and failures, closers can come and go on a weekly basis. Today’s failed starters can be tomorrow’s superstar closers. Next week’s stoppers can also be minor league filler by August. All baseball fans, whether fans of teams or fantasy players, all get driven to the point of insanity because of closers. For every Mariano Rivera, there will be three Jordan Waldens, five Jonathan Broxtons and seven Brandon Lyons. I hope that you enjoyed reading the state of the union on MLB closers today. Although situations may have changed while I wrote this article (see Contreras) and even tomorrow, remember to keep an open mind and focus on where the next closers will be. The most effective relievers in the bullpen will usually get the first crack- it is the ones that can succeed under pressure that will keep their jobs.
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