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ATR: Ask the Reports Answers Your Baseball Questions: July 1st, 2012
Sunday July 1st, 2012
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
JH: Happy Canada Day…eh! I am proud to call Canada my home. So for my fellow Canadians, I wish you a great day today. For our American friends that celebrate the 4th of July, your day is coming up this week. So enjoy it, drink responsibly and make sure you have a designated driver. We want each of you alive through many World Series to come!
A couple of thoughts before we start this weekend’s edition of ATR:
Firstly, a big baseball trade went down yesterday. The Orioles acquired Jim Thome from the Phillies for minor leaguers Gabriel Lino and Kyle Simon. I like this move from both ends quite frankly (catch my full review on Rate that Trade coming up). Thome is a serious veteran presence in the O’s clubhouse and still swings a sweet hall of fame bat. He hits bombs and takes walks. The O’s trade two very young players who may or may not develop. The Phillies did not need Thome as a pinch-hitter and gave him a chance to play, while working towards replenishing their farm. One of those rare win-win scenarios.
Speaking the Orioles, did you catch my recent twitter conversation with Baseball Reporter Jen Royle? Well…the Baltimore Sun did and they ran an interesting article. You know what they say, any publicity is good publicity! Here is a bit of what they caught:
MLB reports asked Royle: “What is it the fans love most? Your charm?”
“They loved my honestly,” she replied, “and they absolutely love that I refued to root for the home team like Homer Simpson.”
MLB reports agreed with her distaste for “Homer” rooting.
“There are many homers that won’t listen to logic,” MLB said. “They think with baseball hearts. Not brains always. They can be fun too.”
And here’s Royle’s first dig: “Sounds like half the Orioles media… It was embarrassing.”
Remember Kevin Youkilis? Now a member of the Chicago White Sox. I talked to one of the top baseball reporters in the game recently on the subject. My colleague let me know that the Red Sox did as well as they could, literally no other team was offering a prospect for Youk. That still boggles my mind, but I guess Boston really put themselves in a no-win position. They traded Youk at his lowest point and had no leverage whatsoever. Still, paying most of his salary and not getting top players back…to me, the White Sox came out like bandits in this one. Wishing Youk all the best on his future, in Chicago this year and beyond.
Last but not least, the All-Star game is coming up from Kansas City in 9 short days. The Prospect Game is being played on Sunday July 8th, Home Run Derby comes your way on Monday July 9th and the big game itself, on Tuesday July 10th. We will have you covered, with previews and recaps of all the big All-Star game festivities and highlights.
Now that we have that behind us, on to your questions! Read the rest of this entry
Stat of the Week: Will Extra Base Hits Help Punch Tickets to BBHOF?
Monday June.18/2012
Alex Rodriguez leads the list of active players and is already 10th All-time for XBH. If Rodriguez can hit 308 XBH before he retires, he will pass Hank Aaron for 1st overall. –Photo courtesy of nytimes.com
Chuck Booth (Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)- Extra base hits kind of go hand in hand with slugging percentage to an extent. I have often used this category every season as a gauge on how good a player does. Sometimes there are extenuating circumstances why a player hits more doubles and triples rather than home runs but they are all considered extra base hits. Adrian Beltre is a perfect example of this. During his Seattle Mariner days, he would blast about 15-20 baseballs off the fences at Safeco Field every year (for a double or triple) that would have been an HR if he did not play in such a pitcher friendly park. This list represents great careers. If a player can reach the magic 1000 extra base hits, they will be hard to ignore for consideration towards Cooperstown. I have omitted Manny Ramirez from an active player. It is my firm belief that the man served a 50 game suspension for a team like Oakland, only to quit on them and maybe land on another club. If he is able to catch on with another job with a club, I will gladly put his name back as #2 player on this active list.
TOP 10 as of June.17/2012
Player Extra Base Hits Leaders Active (Rank All-Time)
1. Alex Rodriguez NYY 1169 (10)
2. Jim Thome PHI 1079 (20)
3. Chipper Jones ATL 1026 (26)
4. Vladimir Guerrero (FA) 972 (39)
5. Todd Helton COL 956 (45)
6. Albert Pujols LAA 941 (50)
7. Bobby Abreu LAD 908 (60)
8. David Ortiz BOS 886 (64)
9. Johnny Damon CLE 859 (73)
10. Scott Rolen CIN 857 (75)
I fully think that Vladimir Guerrero will sign with someone soon. At 972 extra base hits, he is 28 extra base hits away from that 1000 marker. If a team signs him in the next few weeks, he may have a chance to get there before the end of the season. Below is a 5 minute highlight package of his career thus far. There is not many Expos highlights, you can always search Youtube for more.
Top Ten Stat of the Week: HRs per AB Career (Active)
Monday June.11, 2012
Russell Branyan has raw power and was never given a chance to play full time despite ranking 6th amongst active players in HRs per AB. Photo courtesy of seattlesportscentral.com
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)- Chicks dig the long ball right? Well so do dudes. There is a certain folklore of a player that can absolutely cream a baseball regardless of their batting average or ability to make contact all of the time. One of my favorite players to watch swing a bat is Russell Branyan. I follow the Seattle Mariners since they are my closest team for geography. I was able to see what Russell “The Muscle” was able to do once he was given a chance to play every day for the Mariners. He rewarded the club by pasting 31 HRs and knocking in 76 RBI in just 116 games during the 2009 year. The next season, he started with the Cleveland Indians before rejoining the Mariners again at the end of June. Branyan would electrify the crowds at Safeco by hitting another 15 HRs in just 205 AB. Branyan hits as many HRs per AB for a rate in his career as Mickey Mantle did. Branyan draws comparisons to another one of my favorite players in Jack Cust with his nickname ‘3TO’, which is short for 3 True Outs. This is a strikeout, walk or HR. Cust never made this upcoming list but he did hit 63 HRs in his first 1000 AB while striking out 430 times! Branyan’s average 162 game season average (with full at bats) would have included striking out 171 times. In this video you can see his power, (also click the link provided from at the top of the page on this link to see another shot of this mammoth blast that Branyan had at Yankee Stadium. You can do this by copying the blue version of the link and pasting it into your browser.)
You Shake, Rattle and Roll On A World Record Chase
Tuesday, April.11/2012
Chuck at Dodger Stadium
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and- @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)- My step-mom is a retired executive from Air Canada. Back when I was a teenager, Nancy taught me how to travel properly, by how to pack, schedule and always be able to adapt when things go awry. I am pleased to say that she had an incredible influence on me becoming a travel expert now. Her slogan was always; “You gotta learn how to shake, rattle and roll when traveling.” My dad (Tom Booth), helped teach a proper demeanor for my 3 brothers and me while on vacation that I also implement. He said to us “You guys are going to encounter several things when traveling. “If you break, lose or-your items are lost for you, just replace them immediately and don’t let it consume you. After all, why should you be miserable on vacation?” These are motto’s I live by while traveling. I perpetually move forward and don’t look back. While I am glad this trip has generated a lot interest, really the passion here is baseball and traveling. If by some chance I don’t best my own record, I will have fun watching a baseball game in every city again. “You have nothing to prove in this world other to anybody but yourself!”
I have encountered numerous ways of being delayed in chasing baseball parks. Last night was no different. I sat in the San Diego Airport ready to embark on my flight to Cleveland that was supposed to be part of a Progressive Field/Oriole Park at Camden Yards day-night doubleheader. Out of all the 10 doubleheaders that I placed to attempt during this World Record chase, this particular one I would rank the second toughest. The only doubleheader I thought was tougher was the Angel Stadium/Petco Park double header. Ironically enough, I converted that doubleheader. So when the flight was cancelled last night-(due to mechanical failure) I knew I had to think fast on my feet. The Airline was offering up help to fly on other flight, or destinations within reason. Much to my dismay, the airline was not even able to fly me into the second half of the double header n Baltimore, thus creating a plane flight domino. Adding to the severity of the pressure, was I had to think of something fast because the airline needed to help me book a morning flight out of San Diego.
Whenever I plan one of these trips, I have a depth chart for each team. I am lucky that after a few hours of placing this schedule together, I also come up with many different alternatives. Missing the game in Texas the other night for a small delay was nerve-wracking, but maybe it was all meant to be. When I expressed to the airline that I wanted to fly to Dallas, they quickly were on board with that option. The other dominoes came to me quickly. I moved Cleveland to the 25th as part of PNC Park and Progressive Field Ground Transportation doubleheader. As part of my original streak attempt when I first dreamt up another run at this, the schedule had this exact doubleheader. Cleveland was the last team in the Majors to post their start times. When the Indians scheduled a matinee for the 11th of April, it opened up another doubleheader attempt for me by placing the Orioles with Cleveland. All I had to do was bring Detroit into the doubleheader chance with Pittsburgh instead. Now that I am not going to Progressive Field today, I am able to re-schedule the easier to attain doubleheader. Baltimore was switched to the date left vacated by Texas on the 27th of April. This left Detroit. I knew the team played on the 22nd of April.
One of the reasons I went to Chase Field last Friday, was to protect myself against something like last night. That Chase Field game is now the 1st game of the streak. I moved Detroit into their slot on the 22nd. All the teams have a home in the streak again. What is more incredible about this: is that by shifting these cities around and shuffling transportation costs this little maneuver is going to save me $300. I was dreading having to schedule the Texas game after the streak ended, whether it was driving 17 hours or flying, it was going to be costly and time-consuming, I managed to switch out all my flights and actually have a surcharge in my favor. Since I am flying to Denver from Dallas tomorrow, it was a cheaper flight from almost anywhere when you near a travel day fare. Now I am flying to Dallas for a plane fare I spent $160 to originally go to Cleveland for. This day of plane for to Dallas would probably be in the $500-$600 area.
By re-scheduling the trip this way, it also frees up more availability should I have to make up another game or two. That Detroit game doubleheader was risky. If I was running the streak near perfect, I could have risked it and then shuffled the Tigers to the very next day and forego the Cincinnati/Chicago White Sox doubleheader on the 25th. This was not the case and I need that 26th doubleheader. If I kept that doubleheader and missed the Tigers, the next date they were home was April.30th (or the 24th day of the streak.)
Moving Detroit to Sunday the 22nd is pretty decent too, I have a doubleheader for Chicago and Milwaukee on the day before. This is about a 7 hour drive to Michigan. Ken Lee will now attend at least 8 of my games with me for this streak. The Pittsburgh/Cleveland double dip is very doable. The Pirates game should end around 3:30. It is only a couple of hours drive to Progressive Field from there. I would give us a 80-85% chance to hit this game. If for some reason we don’t, the Indians play on the 27th- through the 29th. Other doubleheaders remaining are the TOR-NYY (Yankees play on the 27th-29 in case of miss) ATL-STL (Cardinals play on the 27th-29 in case of miss) CIN/CWS (The White Sox play a series on the 27th-29th). CHI/MIL (The Brewers do not play so I will need the DH). I also give us a 80-85% of making this. Finally I have the Boston/Washington DH (If I miss WSH-I can move them into the Marlins slot of the 17th and then re-do the Marlins from the (27-29 series).
So far I have had 2 missed doubleheaders in this trip that were entirely out of my control. Now a 30-22 schedule hangs in the balance. Whatever happens throughout the rest of the trip is up in the air. The 2009 streak of 30-24 seems even more impressive now than before. In a night where I have already logged 17,000 Air Miles for this trip and running on all fumes, I was able to come up with the best viable solution I could. So whenever I have a chance, I will sleep comfortably about my performance on this trip thus far. I go into tonight’s game looking for my 8th Ball Park in 6 days. Its been a tough 20 hrs-fighting airlines-car rentals not having cars and several doubters and haters-i made it 2 the ballpark-suitcase/briefcase and all-scoreboard says 8 gms 6 days parks 30/22 days
NEW SCHEDULE UPDATED APR 11
With a flight cancellation last night, it has caused me to reschedule several games for the streak. The Arizona D’Backs game now becomes the official game #1. If the game was changed from the original, it will be highlighted in red. I also changed the PIT/DET doubleheader to now be a PIT/CLE Doubleheader on the 25th ave. I lost one of my doubleheader attempts today, but at least I am not taking an a zero.
Game#1 Day #1 Friday April.06 Chase Field in Arizona 4:10 PM (Completed: Arizona wins 5-4)
Game # 2 Day # 2 Saturday April.07 Angels Stadium in Anaheim 1:05 PM (Completed LAA loses 6-3 to KC)
Game # 3 Day # 2 Saturday April.07 Petco Park in San Diego 5:35 PM (I Have 2 doubleheader attempts with SD as Game 2 of the day)( Completed: San Diego loses 6-5 to the LAD in 11 innings)
Game # 4 Day # 3 Sunday April.08 Minute Maid Park in Houston 1:05 PM (Completed: Houston wins 3-2)
Game # 5 Day # 4 Monday April.09 Citizens Bank Ball Park in Philadelphia 1:05 PM (Citizens Bank Ball Park Season Opener) (Completed: Philly loses 6-2 to the Miami Marlins)
Game # 6 Day # 4 Monday April.09 Citi Field in New York (NYM win 3-2 over WSH)
Game # 7 Day # 5 Tuesday April.10 Dodgers Stadium in Los Angeles 1:05 PM (Dodger Stadium Season Opener) Completed: LAD wins 2-1 over Pit)
Game # 8 Day # 6 Wednesday April.11 The Ballpark in Arlington 7:05 PM
Game # 9 Day #7 Thursday April.12 Coors Field 1:05 PM
Game #10 Day # 8 Friday April.13 AT&T Park in San Francisco 1:35 PM (AT & T Park Season Opener)
Game # 11 Day # 9 Saturday April.14 Target Field in Minnesota 12:10 PM
Game # 12 Day # 10 Sunday April.15 Rogers Center in Toronto 1:07 PM
Game # 13 Day # 10 Sunday April.15 Yankees Stadium in the Bronx 8:05 PM
Game # 14 Day #11 Monday April.16 Fenway Park in Boston 11:05 AM
Game # 15 Day #11 Monday April.16 Nationals Park in Washington 7:05 PM
Game # 16 Day #12 Tuesday April.17 New Marlins Ballpark 7:05 PM
Game # 17 Day #13 WED April.18 Turner Field in Atlanta 12:10 PM
Game # 18 Day #13 WED April.18 Busch Stadium in St. Louis 7:15 PM
Game # 19 Day #14 THUR April.19 Safeco Field in Seattle 7:10 PM
Game # 20 Day # 15 Friday April.20 Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City 7:10 PM
Game # 21 Day # 16 SAT. April.21 Wrigley Field in Chicago 12:00 PM
Game # 22 Day # 16 SAT. April.21 Miller Park in Milwaukee 6:05 PM
Game # 23 Day # 17 SUN. April.22 Comerica Park in Detroit 1:05 PM
Game # 24 Day # 18 MON. April.23 O.co Coliseum in Oakland 7:05 PM
Game # 25 Day # 19 TUES April.24 Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay 7:05 PM
Game # 26 Day # 20 WED. April.25 PNC Park in Pittsburgh 12:35 PM
Game # 27 Day # 20 WED. April.25 Progressive Field in Cleveland 7:05 PM
Game # 28 Day # 21 THU. April.26 Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati 12:35 PM
Game # 29 Day # 21 THU. April.26 US Cellular Field in Chicago 7:11 PM
Game# 30 Day # 22 FRI April.27 Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 7:05 PM
***Thank you to our Lead Baseball Writer- Chuck Booth for preparing today’s feature on MLB reports. To learn more about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames” and Chuck Booth, you can follow Chuck on Twitter (@ChuckBooth3024) and you can also follow Chuck’s website for his Guinness Book of World Record Bid to see all 30 MLB Park in 23 days click here or on the 30 MLB Parks in 23 days GWR tracker at the Reports click here. To Purchase or read about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames Book, ” please click here ***
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The Future of Gio Gonzalez and Mark Buehrle in the NL
Wednesday January 4th, 2012
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Aside from their pitching style and repertoire, Mark Buehrle and Gio Gonzalez have a lot in common. They are both left-handed and have also made the shift to the National League during this 2011 offseason. However, their connection dates back even further.
The Chicago White Sox selected Gonzalez in the first round of the 2004 draft. The following season, the White Sox earned a World Championship, thanks in large part to Mark Buehrle’s regular and postseason contributions. Buehrle, a 36th round pick of the White Sox in 1999, continued to be a model of consistency and success, winning at least 10 games and throwing at least 200 innings for 11 consecutive seasons for the White Sox. Forever a legend in the White Sox community, Buehrle joined his second major league franchise this offseason with the Miami Marlins. The move is one I saw coming when Ozzie Guillen became the manager of the Marlins. Clearly the left-hander is comfortable with Guillen, and the National League is truly where Buehrle belongs at this point of his career. He has amassed a 24-6 win loss record with a 3.32 ERA in 39 Interleague starts. However, before we look at his 2012 value, I must continue with the Buehrle-Gonzalez narrative.
Ironically for the White Sox, it was a 36th round pick and not the first round pick that became the face of the franchise. Such is baseball and is an example of what makes the game so interesting. In fact, Gonzalez has never even pitched an inning for the White Sox. He was traded in 2005 along with Aaron Rowand to the Phillies for Jim Thome. Remarkably, The White Sox reacquired him along with Gavin Floyd for Freddy Garcia in December 2006 and still never got him into a major league game while a part of their organization.
It should be noted that 2008 marked a breakout year for White Sox left-hander John Danks (12-9 win loss record). Gavin Floyd also
flourished that year, winning 17 games. Going into that season, there did not appear to be room for Gonzalez in the White Sox rotation. Particularly with Buehrle in place and Floyd/Danks set to emerge (as they did), the White Sox felt that it did not make sense to try to add a third left-hander to the starting staff. Obviously high on the team’s radar, the White Sox had to make a tough decision and trade Gonzalez…again. In a regrettable move, Kenny Williams sent Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, and Fautino De Los Santos to the Oakland Athletics for one miserable season of Nick Swisher. As a member of the A’s, Gonzalez came into his own, finishing 2011 with a 16-12 record and a 3.12 ERA with 197 K’s in 202 innings.
Now- going into 2012, both Gonzalez and Buehrle land in the National League for the next stage of their respective careers.
Looking at Gonzalez, his value remains high in 2012. Although he leaves the friendly pitching confines of Oakland, he is going to another pitching friendly park in Washington. His 2011 XFIP indicates that his ERA should have been closer to 4, rather than an even 3.00. Therefore, I expect Gonzalez’s ERA to hover right in the middle of those two numbers. He has an incredible ability to miss bats, but the walk rate, which he has yet to show any improvement at any level, prevents him from being a fantasy ace. With 4 walks per 9 innings, he is prone to give up high run totals and also have trouble pitching deep into games. He does do a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. But the only way for Gonzalez to really improve upon his 2011 campaign is if he can cut down on the free passes. His control is simply not that good, but he is also a player that can be categorized as effectively wild. I simply do not see any signs of Gonzalez improving his walk rate, especially as he his mainly a fastball/curveball pitcher.
In a sharp contrast, Mark Buehrle relies on command and mastery of the strike zone to retire batters. He has really shown no signs of true decline and he will still only be 33 years of age in 2012. He is not much different that the pitcher he was in 2004. He strikes out enough batters to be effective and has a stellar career 2.05 BB rate. He strikes out about half as many batters as Gonzalez, but also walks half as many. The two pitchers do have similar groundball rates. However, the change of scenery may have a much bigger impact on Buehrle than it does for Gonzalez. As I have mentioned, the Interleague numbers speak for themselves and Buehrle is finally leaving the hitter friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Park. He will surely benefit from facing the National League lineups most nights and is in a better position to succeed in Miami in 2012.
Overall, Mark Buehrle is the guy to keep an eye on during draft day in 2012. Most people view him as an aging soft throwing left-hander with a falling stock. However, he has potential to put up above average numbers for perhaps a below average price. Now while I say to keep an eye on Buehrle, it is not to say he will outperform Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez is clearly the better fantasy option, but he will likely come at a higher cost. This is a 26-year-old pitcher who has posted 3.23 and 3.12 ERA in his last two seasons, respectively. However, do not expect him to necessarily improve upon these numbers due to some of the luck he experienced in 2011 and his inability to improve his walk rate. He will most likely be valued as an ace in many fantasy circles, when he is truly more of a number three-type starter. Buehrle, who will be off many people’s radars, could produce as a cheap yet quality four/five type of pitcher.
2012 Predictions:
Mark Buehrle: 206 IP, 14-9 W/L, 3.69 ERA, 120 Ks
Gio Gonzalez: 208 IP, 14-12 W/L, 3.43 ERA, 206 K
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
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