Odds To Win The 2017 MLB Home Run Crown

Manny Machado joins his teammates back in the lineup at home on Friday, where they mash everyone at Camden Yards, and in particular have great power numbers against LHP Matt Moore of the Tampa Bay Rays.. A great stacking option, and the O's are part of 4 So for four years in a row a Baltimore Orioles players has led the overall MLB in Homers. This year could be the 5th straight year if Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo or Manny Machado lead the league in homers. These 3 O's player cracked a combined 122 big flies in 2016. Trumbo clubbed 47 to lead all of the Majors. I had boldly said last year that Baltimore may challenge the ALL - time HR Record of 264 in a season held by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. The same could be said this year.

 So for four years in a row a Baltimore Orioles players has led the overall MLB in Homers. This year could be the 5th straight year if Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo or Manny Machado lead the league in homers. These 3 O’s player cracked a combined 122 big flies in 2016. Trumbo clubbed 47 to lead all of the Majors. I had boldly said last year that Baltimore may challenge the ALL – time HR Record of 264 in a season held by the 1997 Seattle Mariners. The same could be said this year.

On the top of the odds board is Giancarlo Stanton yet again.  The 2016 MLB ALL Star Game HR Derby Champ, amassed 27 HRs in 413 AB during 2016, but that was way down from 27 HRs in 279 AB during 2015.

The problem with Stanton is he always suffers and injury during a season.  He did lead the NL in 2014 with 37 HRs in his only full year in the last 5 seasons.  I may have eve picked him if he was not the favorite.  I will take a pass on him this year.

The 1st good odd that stands out to me is Nolan Arenado at +1500.  The Rockies premiere player has led the NL in HRs for the last 2 campaigns, smacking 42 HRs and 41 HRs respectively. 

It is not foreign to think he could approach 50 with this his Age 26 year forthcoming.

Despite hitting just 29 HRs and playing for a team under .500, Mike Trout took home his 2nd MVP Award. Hitting 41 HRs in 2015 is more of the path I am thinking about, and I think he will find a new level of power in the coming season.

Despite hitting just 29 HRs and playing for a team under .500, Mike Trout took home his 2nd MVP Award. Hitting 41 HRs in 2015 is more of the path I am thinking about, and I think he will find a new level of power in the coming season. At +2000, he is our 2nd favorite odd on the board for this category.

I also like Mike Trout at +2000.  We at the MLB Reports, predicted he will lead the American League for HRs this year already.  He will challenge 50 once in his career as well.

At +2000, we also see Miguel Sano and Kyle Schwarber way too early.  While both have great power, Schwarber spent the whole 2016 season injured – and Sano struggled to start the season before a late season surge.

I agree both have intense strength to challenge for a HR crown one day, the odds are just not there to be ranked this highly yet.

To put this in perspective, Kris Bryant is listed at the same odd after crushing 39 bombs last year.  Bryant was the NL MVP, and he should be routinely in the 40 – 50 HR plateau for the next 7 or 8 years.

Trevor Story at +4000 is a great value pick as well.  In his rookie campaign, the Rox SS bashed 27 HRs in 97 GP, which would put him in the 45 HR range for a full season.  Picking a Colorado player is a nice safe play always.

Carlos Gonzalez is at +6000, is in a contract year.  2 years ago the man lit up the baseball 40 times over the fence.  He is capable of doing it again.  Maybe it will be enough to challenge for the HR crown

Justin Upton is a brutal odd at +6000.  He has never hit more than 31 Homers in a year, and he has several periods of slumping every year.

In contrast, his teammate J.D. Martinez hit 38 HRs in 2015, and duplicated the same Slugging Pctg last year, even though he missed 42 Games during the season.

Khris Davis has been on fire since the All – Star Break in 2015 (63 HRs in 788 AB, for a HR every 12.5 AB.  So if he can grab 600 AB in 2017, he may crack around 44 – 48 HRs.)  He is one of our best bet on the board at +8000.

Joining Davis at +8000 is Carlos Correa.  At just 22 right now, this Astros Shortstop has everyone comparing him to a young Alex Rodriguez.  A few 40 HR years are coming for him.

Also at +8000 are our worst 2 picks on the list.  Joey Gallo (he may not receive enough playing time. and simply has struck out too much so far, and Aaron Judge (our worst pick on the board for sure).

Judge strikeout rate was exactly 50% in his play last season – punching out on 42 occasions in 84 AB.  While homering in his 1st AB ever, Judge hit just 3 bombs after that.

Adrian Beltre has had a fine career, that included him belting 48 HRs in 2004 to lead he NL, but he is 38 years old, and hasn’t topped 40 HRs since that given year.

Next is the story of the ridiculous.  The oddsmakers giving Eric Thames a 100/1 odd chance to win the HR title.  The guy has only hit a HR every 34 AB in his career for the MLB.  This is not the KBO.

While it may be a far stretch for a Catcher to lead the Majors in HRs (Johnny Bench was the last to do it in 1970 and 1972 with Cincinnati, Gary Sanchez did blast 20 HRs in just 53 Games last year), love the odd here.

I think that Sanchez definitely has a shot to break the HR single season record for a backstopper of 42 by Javier Lopez in 2003 (Bench did play some OF, 3B and 1B in his career), maybe even as soon as this season.

At the same odd is Sanchez’s new Yankee teammate Matt Holliday.  This a poor wager for any takers.  Holliday has only ever eclipsed 30+ HR 2 times and those were both in Colorado nearly a decade ago.

Adrian Gonzalez and Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers, also have no business at 100/1.  Gonzalez hasn’t hit 30 Hrs since his Padres days, and Puig is so inconsistent, he was sent to the Minors in 2016.

David Dahl is at +10000 and is just too young to justify this add, as is Nomar Mazara of the Rangers.

Among the worst odds is our 2nd worst value pick, and that is Buster Posey.  With a career high of just 24 HRs and playing the majority of his games at Catcher still, there is no way I would bet money on him to win a HR total.

On the other side of the coin is Evan Gattis, who with Brian McCann coming into be the main backstopper for the Astros, should not see too many games behind the plate this year.

Gattis went on a tear to complete 2016, knocking 15 HRs out in his last 181 AB of the year.  For the campaign his 31 HRs in 447 AB was outstanding. At 200/1, and in a hitter friendly park like Houston, Gattis is a nice wager option.

Last 5 Years In The MLB Overall HR Title

2012: Miguel Cabrera< DET – 44

2013:  Chris Davis, BAL – 53

2014: Nelson Cruz, BAL – 40

2015: Chris Davis BAL – 47

2016:  Mark Trumbo, BAL – 47

Blue Bold Means Good Vale with #value confidence in parenthesis

Maroon Bold Means Bad Vale with # value confidence in parenthesis

Odds To Win The Overall MLB Home Run Title

(Courtesy Of Westgate Casino in Las Vegas. NV

Giancarlo Stanton, MIA +800

Chris Davis, BAL +1500

Manny Machado, BAL +1500

Nolan Arenado, COL +1500 (6)

Mike Trout, LAA +2000 (2)

Bryce Harper, WSH +2000

Kris Bryant, CHC +2000 (5)

Kyle Schwarber, CHC +2000 (T-10)

Miguel Sano, MIN +2000 (T – 10)

Josh Donaldson, TOR +2000

(Rest of the field, players not named here.  Note:  These Guys left off Jake Lamb from this list as well.(4th))

Mark Trumbo, BAL +3000

Nelson Cruz, SEA +3000

Miguel Cabrera, DET +4000

Todd Frazier, CWS +4000

Edwin Encarnacion, CLE +4000

George Springer, HOU +4000

Trevor Story, COL +4000 (4)

Paul Goldschmidt, ARI +4000

Rougned Odor, TEX +5000

Carlos Gonzalez, COL +6000 (8)

Jose Bautista, TOR +6000

Jose Abreu, CWS +6000

J.D. Martinez, DET +6000 (9)

Justin Upton, DET +6000 (9)

Yoenis Cespedes, NYM +6000

Mookie Betts, BOS +6000

Adam Duvall, Cin +6000

Khris Davis, OAK +8000 (1)

Chris Carter, TBD, +8000

Joey Gallo, TEX +8000 (3)

Aaron Judge, NYY +8000 (1)

Freddie Freeman, ATL +8000

Brian Dozier. MIN +8000

Adrian Beltre, TEX +8000 (11)

Evan Longoria, TB +8000

Corey Seager, LAD +8000

Ian Desmond, COL +8000

Carlos Correa, HOU +8000 (10)

Eric Thames, MIL +10000 (2)

Albert Pujols, LAA +10000

Tommy Joseph, PHI +10000

Adam Jones, BAL +10000

Carlos Santana, +10000

Maikel Franco, PHI +10000

Hanley Ramirez, BOS +10000

Ryan Braun, MIL +10000

Lucas Duda, NYM +10000

Gary Sanchez, NYY +10000 (7)

Matt Kemp, ATL +10000

Joc Pederson, LAD +10000

Robinson Cano, SEA +10000

Kyle Seager, SEA +10000

Jay Bruce, NYM +10000

Matt Holliday +10000 (5)

Joey Votto, CIN +10000

Andrew McCutchen, PIT +10000

Wil Myers, SD +10000

Mike Napoli, TBD +10000

Eric Hosmer, KC< +10000

Yasiel Puig, LAD +10000 (3)

Charlie Blackmon, COL +10000

Eugenio Suarez, CIN +10000

Nomar Mazara, TEX +10000 (7)

Xander Bogaerts, BOS +10000

Buster Posey, SF +10000 (2)

Corey Dickerson. TB +10000

Kendrys Morales, TOR +10000

Adrian Gonzalez, LAD +10000 (4)

Justin Turner, LAD +10000

Stephen Piscotty, STL +10000

Marcell Ozuna. MIA +10000

Justin Bour, MIA +10000

Mitch Moreland, BOS +10000

Brad Miller, TB +10000

David Dahl, COL +10000 (8)

Jorge Soler, KC +10000

Evan Gattis,HOU+20000 (3)

Ian Kinsler, DET +20000

Nick Castellanos, DET +20000

Khris Davis has belted 63 HRs in his last 788 AB since the 2015 All Star Game.  At a jack fo every 12.5 AB since then, he is our favorite value pick on this oddsboard..

Khris Davis has belted 63 HRs in his last 788 AB since the 2015 All Star Game. At a jack for every 12.5 AB since then, he is our favorite value pick on this oddsboard. If he is able to bash keep up the same pace in 2017, he could near 50 HRs for the year.  An A’s player has not led the Majors in Homers since Mark McGwire did so in the mid 90’s.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***

A big thanks goes out to our ‘Chief Writer/Part Owner’ Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured post.

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Posted on February 5, 2017, in gambling 101, HRs, Players: Fantasy Baseball Articles and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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