Wednesday July 18th, 2012

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports):  

The upcoming trade deadline has the potential to sway the course of a fantasy season, especially in AL and NL only leagues. While the big trades are just over a week away from formulating, now is the time to make decisions instead of trying to react after the deadline. As many sub-.500 teams will be looking to deal their end of the game bullpen options to contenders, these are the players to stash away immediately:

Greg Holland, since returning form an injury in early May, has a 1.75 ERA and 36 K’s in 25.2 innings. Remember, coming into the season, he was by and large considered the favorite end of the game option before struggling and dealing with injury. Now, the reality is that Broxton will likely be traded at the deadline. He is at peak value, with a 2.14 ER and 22 saves in 26 opportunities. However, with a 23/14 K:B ratio in 33.2 innings, he is clearly not as dominate as the 2009 version of Broxton and is due for some regression. The Royals will almost certainly deal Broxton to a contender, and as a result might have to assume setup duty behind another closer. Meanwhile, Holland is more than ready to take over the save opportunities for the final two months of the season.

Luke Gregerson has emerged as the top setup men behind Huston Street after Dale Thayer was given the bulk of save opportunities when Street hit the DL earlier this year. Prior to the start of the season, I wrote that Street would be trade bait at the deadline and it appears he will be on the move with many teams struggling at the end of the game. His pitched tremendously but his value his the potential to plummet (as a setup man) or increase if he lands with a team like the Mets and closes. After a dominate June and July (19 IP, 4 ER, 25 K) Gregerson is the next best option and my pick to assume the closing duties if Street departs. However, do not count out Dale Thayer, who has 5 saves on the season despite a 4.34 ERA.

Chase Headley is rumored to be on the move with Padres top prospect Jedd Gyorko major league ready. This is really intriguing, because outside of Petco Park, Headley is actually a top option at third base. The splits tell the story.

Away (165 at bats) .280/8/26 and .875 OPS

Home (170 at bats) .253/2/20 and .705 OPS.

Headley also runs, with a total of ten stolen bases on the year. A move out of San Diego would do wonders for Headley, and he could be a legit five-category lite producer. This is a good guy to take a flier on, perhaps waivers or trade, just to see if he lands in a more favorable ballpark after the deadline.

Shane Victorino is one of the bigger bats rumored to be traded this deadline. As a result, there is a list of almost ten teams who are interested in the speedy slugger.  Although his value isn’t likely to fluctuate too much, a move to New York or Texas would give a bigger boost in his value than to Pittsburgh. Victorino is the type of player that flourishes in the spotlight and will probably be rejuvenated if traded to a contender, perhaps in the same way as Kevin Youkilis.

A move out of Houston would increase the value of Wandy Rodriguez, particularly in regards to potential wins. The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays have been in touch with Houston’s management, but a move to the AL East would not help Wandy’s ERA and WHIP. However, his contract might make it difficult for him to be moved.  

Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza are both rumored to be on the move. Dempster has now thrown 33 consecutive innings to lower his ERA to a major league best 1.86. He is certainly due for some regression regardless of where he pitches (3.71 XFIP), but should hopefully benefit from a better offense with a contender. However, for both of these guys, I think their value takes a pretty major hit if they are traded to the American League.

Brandon Lyon is a good name to grab from the waivers as Brett Myers could be on the move by the end of the month. He is owed a lot of money, but has performed admirably as the Astros closer and could help many teams. Lyon has pitched much better this season after faltering as the closer in 2011. With 35 K’s and a 3.15 ERA in 34 innings, he could grab a handful of saves over the final two months of the season.

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein)***

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