Wednesday July 11th, 2012

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports):  

As we sit at the All-Star break, the first half of the season brought with it many fantasy busts and surprises. This is a great opportunity to buy low on many players, as well as sell high on the players that cannot sustain their strong first half of the 2012 season.

SECOND HALF TARGETS:

Edwin Encarnacion’s power surge appears to be legit, very similar to the manner of his teammate Jose Bautista. Combine the second half of 2011 with the first half of 2012, and you are looking at 34 home runs 94 RBIs, and 19 stolen bases. Try and pry Edwin if an owner is looking to sell and acquire a more household name. Edwin continues to improve his approach the plate and is not overly benefiting from inflated BABIP or ISO numbers.

Carlos Santana had a miserable first half and with a high stock coming into 2012, many fantasy owners have been left devastated. The truth is that he ahs been consistently banged up with injuries, including a concussion, and really hasn’t been able to establish any rhythm. His stock is at an all-time low and he has the ability to produce like a top-3 catcher in the second half.

Jason Kipnis quietly produces as at top fantasy second baseman, and is even rated higher than Robinson Cano in my ESPN 5X5 league. The truth is he is a much better fantasy than real life player. His first half of .277/11/53/20 came with a BAPIP and ISO below his career average. While I expect a little more power in the second half, it will be hard to expect another 20 steals. Since he so quietly produces and is only getting better at the plate, Kipnis is a name I would target for the second half at a thin second base position.

Carlos Gonzalez is known for widely known as a second half hitter. However, he had an absurd first half (.330/17/61/11) and won’t necessarily be available at a cheap cost. These numbers, however, are not unsustainable and he will continue to feast on pitching in Coors Field. When it’s all said and done, CarGo will likely produce top-five fantasy numbers.

Prince Fielder may have assuaged the fears of Detroit Fans who are considered with his home run total – just 15 through 68 games. However, Prince continues to improve his strikeout rate (12.1%), although he is sacrificing walks, but his ISO of .206 (career .253) indicates there is more power to come in the second half. I think we will also see a lot more of the Tigers in the second half, a lot of which IS contingent on Fielder’s performance.

SECOND HALF FLOPS (TRADE AT PEAK VALUE):

Melky Cabrera’s first half, including his all-star game performance, has made him one the biggest surprises of the year (.353/8/44/10). However, the .388 BAPIP (career .308) will be tough to sustain and his average will likely fall back to earth. Not to see he isn’t a serviceable fantasy outfielder but I would look to shop him if I owned him with his stock at an all-time high.

Alex Rios is one of the hottest and coldest hitters the game has ever seen. In the first half of 2012 (.318/12/50/13) he is essentially already out produced his 2011 output (.227/13/44/11).  He is not this good, and he is not as bad as 2011. Aided by BAPIP and ISO’s well over his career marks thus far, expect some regression from Rios. He is still a five-category contributor, but now might be a good time to sell as the numbers are eye-popping.

Nothing in Ian Desmond’s approach or batted ball statistics indicates that he can sustain this power surge. (.285/17/46/11). His ISO of .230 is well above career average of .149 and he is hitting flyballs at the same rate. Expect single digit home runs and a pedestrian batting average.

James McDonald is also due for some serious progression in the second half of the season. His new slider has made him much more effective, but he cannot sustain a sub-3 ERA. His XFIP likens his ERA to be closer to the mid-3’s, especially as the BAPIP and HR/FB ratio regress back to the career norms. His ability to miss bats has certainly fueled his hot start, but it’s not k/9 of 8.18 is barely above his career average of 7.81. Trade him at peak value!

With his injury history, I would look to trade Jake Peavy while he still hones a sub-3.00 ERA. The truth is that he is the same pitcher he was in his 19 starts as last year. He was very unlucky in 2011 and posted a 4.92 ERA with a 3.52 XFIP. In 2012, the breaks are going Peavy’s was as his ERA of 2.85 is a full run under his XFIP of 3.92. He is due for some regression, as his LOB% and BABIP indicate, and with his injury history, it might be a good idea to find a safer option down the stretch.

C.J. Wilson posted a 2.43 ERA in the first half, but his XFIP of 4.13 indicates he is due for some regression, especially as his k/9 rate continues to drop to a pedestrian 7.11.

Aaron Hill is another player who is due for some regression; albeit minor, and is still a strong start at second base.

Photo Courtesy of bleacherreport.com

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein)***

Please e-mail us at: mlbreports@me.com with any questions and feedback.  You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.  To subscribe to our website and have the Daily Reports sent directly to your inbox, click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.