Friday March 9th, 2012

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): While the Angels and Rangers should battle for first place and eclipse 90 wins each, the Mariners and Athletics will most likely lose ninety games apiece. Despite this dichotomy, from a fantasy perspective, the American League West might the most intriguing division in MLB. The Angels and Rangers are loaded with fantasy studs, although many come at a risk, while there a number of undervalued and up and coming players on M’s and A’s roster that need to be targeted in fantasy leagues in 2012.

VALUE PICKS:

Colby Lewis is easily one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. Most people are quick to credit his 2010 return to the major leagues as a fluke. Although a slight drop in velocity last year, his 2011 numbers were very similar to 2010. He is a safe bet for a dozen wins an ERA around 4 and strikeout rate around 8K/9. He is not going to blow hitters away, but he is an attractive start against division foes Oakland and Seattle and should be available for a relatively cheap price.

Mike Adams will surely be closing by the end of the 2012 season. I have zero faith in Joe Nathan. The good news is, Adams will be available for a very cheap price, and has proven to be one of the game’s top five setup men over the last three years. The exciting thing is that he doesn’t even need to close to provide value to your team, considering his career 9.25 K/P rate and his ridiculously low ERA and WHIP rates. Target Adams as an elite 8th inning guy who could easily assume the closing role for one of the league’s best teams.

Over the last two seasons, only five shortstops have swiped more bags than Cliff Pennington (43). Furthermore, his impressive 22 percent line drive rate provides optimism for improvement in his batting average from 2010 (.250) and 2011 (.264). Playing in Oakland he is relatively unknown, and although he doesn’t really excel in any category, he certainly does enough in each. To give you an idea of how undervalued he is, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, and Ian Desmond are the only other shortstops to score 120 runs, drive in 100 runs, and wipe 40 bases over the last two seasons. He has no competition in Oakland and should continue to improve.

Monitor Kendrys Morales over spring training and determine whether it appears he will be ready to contribute in 2012. With his injury history, he will clearly not demand top dollars, but it is not unfathomable for him to bounce back with a .280/20/80 type of season for the Angels. He is still only 28-years old and can benefit from the Angels depth and DH rotation. I would certainly take a flier on Morales if the price was right, especially as there will be a lot less pressure for him to produce with Pujols in the lineup.

Grant Balfour has excelled in a setup role the last two seasons and could get a chance to close this year. He will certainly find himself in the mix for saves and offers good ERA/WHIP/K numbers and is a relative unknown with just 10 career saves.

If Brandon McCarthy can stay healthy, he can put up some pretty impressive ERA and WHIP totals in Oakland. He should be relatively inexpensive on draft day, and a guy who can be used based on opponents and home/away matchups.

Bartolo Colon proved that he still has a little something left in the tank in 2012. I expect a good stretch out of Colon before an injury and love the fact that he is pitching in Oakland. He will be available for little cost and I recommend squeezing the last of the juice out of him.

BUYER BEWARE

Mike Napoli is most certainly due for a regression in 2012. The .344 BAPIP (.303 career) in 2011 explains the .320 batting average. A career .264 hitter, Napoli has certainly made many adjustments at the plate, particularly cutting down on his strikeout percentage. However, he will have difficulty maintaining a .312 ISO (.249 career) and should come back down to earth in the tune of .270/30/80.

I am afraid that the innings and workload is starting to take its toll on Felix Hernandez. He is certainly still elite, but has trouble winning games and is likely to see an ERA north of 3.00 with his increasing fly ball rate.

Simply put, Chris Iannetta is a miserable hitter away from Coors Field. Now, he will no longer have the luxury of playing in Colorado for even half of his games.  The career home/away splits tell it all:

713 Home at-bats: .262/37/150

716 Road at-bats: .208/26/79

Don’t expect much from Iannetta in his new surroundings.

It will be extremely difficult for Jered Weaver to duplicate his 2011 season. His 18 wins and 2.41 ERA in 2011 were the best of his career. However, his 3.80 XFIP and .250 BABIP (career .276) indicate Weaver’s good fortune in 2011. He actually, in some regards, regressed from his 2010 season in which he had a strikeout rate 9.35 k/9. The drop in his strikeout rate to 7.56 k/9 in 2012 is significant. Furthermore, his 2.41 ERA can also be credited to his absurd 82.6 LOB percentage. Weaver is undoubtedly due for major regression in 2012, but is still certainly a number two-fantasy pitcher.

Much of Ichiro Suzuki’s disappointing 2011 season (.272 batting average) can be credited to his .295 BABIP (.351 career). Although he can probably expect to bounce his average closer to .300, his advanced age and declining speed will make it difficult to have a significant bounce back year.

Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton can simply hit. Both are studs…when healthy. Health is the only concern with these two. I generally try to stay away from these type of high risk players, but at the same time its possible that their injury history has decreased their value in some leagues. Keep an eye on their value, and if you do land Cruz or Hamilton, trade them while they are hot and at peak value for a safer option.

UP-AND-COMING

Although Jesus Montero’s value takes a hit moving from New York to Seattle, the thing that is now guaranteed is at bats. There is no question about his ability to hit, just catch. Look for Montero to be a top-10 catcher in 2012.

Brad Peacock, acquired by the Athletics in the Gio Gonzalez trade, dominated between AA and AAA last season with 177 strikeouts in 146 innings. Definitely needs to improve his control, but love the fact that he will pitch in Oakland. It might take him some time to get a crack in the rotation, but 2012 could be the start of a nice career from this right-hander.Teammate Tom Milone, also acquired in the Gonzalez deal, has good long-term value. Has continued to improve his strikeout rate throughout the minors, but doesn’t project to be a big strikeout guy in the majors. It will be interesting to see how the Athletics develop Peacock and Milone, but keep your on both of them throughout the year.

Mike Carp proved to be a worthy bat in his 79-game audition with the Mariners in 2012. If given a full season of at-bats, which still remains to be seen, he can put up a .270/20/70 type of stat line. Keep an eye on him because he has potential for decent value in 2012 and perhaps even more long-term.

Danny Hultzen could find himself part of the Mariners rotation in 2012 by season’s end. Great long-term value, although his 2012 value is limited.

Craig Gentry is a name to keep an eye on as the season progresses, especially if Nelson Cruz or Josh Hamilton go down with injury. He offers a lot of speed and is good against right handing pitching.

Dustin Ackley is the second baseman of the future for the Mariners and could quietly emerge as a top-10 option in fantasy leagues this year. He does a little bit of everything, and I expect a stat line in the range of .270/10/60 and double-digit stolen bases. He shouldn’t cost you much, and his minor league K and BB ratios indicate that he can succeed at the major league level, which he proved in 90 games last year.