Blog Archives
Manny Machado’s Impact on the Orioles
Saturday August 18th, 2012
Sam Evans: When the Orioles called up Manny Machado roughly ten days ago, reactions varied from overjoyed to disappointed. However, one thing was true of pretty much everyone’s reaction. We were all shocked. Machado, who had barely played one hundred games in Double-A, was now going to have to be relied on for the Orioles playoff push. So far, the Machado experiment couldn’t have gone any better for Baltimore.
At Double-A, Machado was having a tremendous season, despite what some of his numbers suggest. At the age of just twenty, Machado posted a 122 wRC+. While the question of whether or not he could remain at shortstop loomed, Machado received stellar reports of his range at the shortstop position. Read the rest of this entry
2012 Braves Pitching Staff: What’s Going on in Atlanta?
Friday August 17th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: As of today, the Atlanta Braves sit four games out of first place in the NL East. This division was supposed to be the strongest in baseball. The Nationals made moves in the offseason to acquire Gio Gonzalez, the Marlins signed three big name free agents to go along with the core of Hanley Ramirez and Giancarlo Stanton, and the Phillies kept their strong pitching staff intact. The Braves didn’t make any huge moves and stuck with what they had—a strong hitting lineup to back up a good pitching rotation. The Braves started the season with Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Brandon Beachy, and Mike Minor as their five-man rotation. Jurrjens was coming off a strong 2011 campaign in which he posted a 2.96 ERA through 152 innings. The Braves were hoping Jurrjens could replicate last season’s performance in order to give the team a better outcome and hopefully make the playoffs.
Unfortunately this was not the case for Jurrjens. He has been awful this year, going 3-4 with a 6.89 ERA. This isn’t the performance the Braves were hoping for, but somehow they are able to manage. Tim Hudson, the oldest on the staff at 36, has a 3.59 ERA to go with a 12-4 record. Tommy Hanson hasn’t been his best this year with a 4.29 ERA in 22 starts (his record is a bit deceiving at 12-5). He has also spent some time on the DL. The real story this year is Ben Sheets. After missing some of the 2010 season and not playing all of last year, Sheets joined the Braves midseason and has been fantastic. In his six starts this year, Sheets has gone 4-2 with a 2.13 ERA. In his 10-year career, Sheets’ best was 2004, when he posted a 2.70 ERA while going 12-14 with the Brewers. If he can keep his performance up, Sheets will have the best year of his career at age 34 (half a season, but still).
ATR: Ask the Reports Answers Your Baseball Questions: Lowe to the Yankees, Mauer Before Head and Shoulders, Extend Wright, Jose Canseco is Bankrupt (again) and Creative MLB Realignment
Sunday August 12th, 2012
Speaking of the Yankees, I have something important on my mind. Derek Lowe. I will never stop thinking him as a member of the Red Sox, so today’s news took me somewhat by surprise. Lowe is now a member of the Yankees. So this is not your dad’s version of Derek Lowe. No, the 39-year old Lowe is nearly done. Unless he discovers the fountain of youth…or learns to throw a knuckleball. Lowe started off hot in Cleveland, but fizzled out quickly. Going to New York, his record on the year sits at 8-10 with a dismal 5.52 ERA. He has an unsightly 1.689 WHIP. He has walked more batters than he has struck out. But yet I hold out faith. Lowe was still very good as of 2010, but the wheels came off last year and never returned.
Apparently Lowe has accepted an assignment to the pen. Heck, for the league minimum- the Yankees have nothing to lose. Pettitte may not return and now Sabathia is having elbow issues. As the Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Rangers and many other teams have proven this year- you can never have too much pitching. Pitchers get injured. Pitchers become ineffective. Remember how many Yankees fans were booing Bartolo Colon last year? Bet those same fans would love to have him back this year. Look at Ben Sheets on Atlanta. What’s old is new again. As long as Lowe’s arm is still intact, I say throw him in there. If he can get hot for even 2 weeks- that’s all what it might take in this game. Great signing by Brian Cashman. Derek Lowe could end up being a winning lottery ticket- or simply a lost dollar. Low risk, high reward is the name of the game folks.
For our Batting Stance Guy featured video of the week, we bring you Gar’s All-Star compilation titled: “Best Batting Stances By Position”
For bonus points this week: Tell us which former MLB player Gar is hanging with…and which stance he is imitating? First correct answer gets a secret prize: e-mail your answer to mlbreports@gmail.com
Now let’s get to your top questions of the week: Read the rest of this entry
Stephen Strasburg Update: The Nationals Decision to Shut Stras For the Season is Looming
Thursday August 9th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky:The rest of the Nationals’ season rides on the talented right arm of Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals have a very strong staff with Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Edwin Jackson as the core. One could make a case for Zimmermann, Gonzalez, or Strasburg as the ace, as each of them carries a sub-3.40 ERA. Zimmermann has a 2.45, Strasburg has a 2.97, and Gonzalez has a 3.32 ERA. Pitching is undoubtedly the Nationals’ strongpoint. But, if Washington was to abide by the innings limit they set for Strasburg, their playoff hopes could be in jeopardy.
At the beginning of the season, the Nationals came out and said that Strasburg would only throw 160 innings before being shut down due to his having Tommy John surgery last year. As of Wednesday, he has thrown 127.1. In his 22 starts this year, he averages about 5 2/3 innings a start. With the 32 2/3 innings that he has left, he would only be able to make five to six more starts. The Nationals have played 110 games thus far, so that leaves them with 52 to go. He is set to pitch Friday, so if he were to go every fifth day and pitch his average of 5 2/3 innings each time, his limit would be reached by the beginning of September. The good news is if the Nationals decide to abide by this limit, they have a few options available to them.
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks Win the NL West?
Monday August 6th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: Diamondbacks fans spoke out about our last piece on the Dodgers and Giants, so here’s one devoted just to the Dbacks. After last year’s run when they dethroned the world champion Giants, Arizona was poised for something similar this season. In the offseason, they acquired Trevor Cahill from the A’s. He provided some extra depth in the already-strong pitching staff that included Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, and Joe Saunders. With Cahill, Justin Upton, Chris Young, Aaron Hill, and offseason signing Jason Kubel, the Diamondbacks were ready to defend their NL West title.
Arizona however, started off a bit slow. Daniel Hudson needed Tommy John Surgery and Stephen Drew wasn’t quite ready to come off the DL. Catcher Miguel Montero went into a slump and Chris Young—after a hot start—was headed to the DL. While all of this was happening, the Dodgers were absolutely on fire. Matt Kemp was already on the fast track to winning MVP, and the team was in first place by a nice margin. The Giants were doing well too. With no competition from the Padres, the D-Backs were in third place. As the season went along, Matt Kemp was sidelined by a hamstring injury and the Dodgers faltered. The Giants kept pace and ended up passing the Dodgers to take first place. Meanwhile, the D-Backs rebounded and stayed in contention. At the All Star Break, the Dodgers led the West by half a game over the Giants and by four games over Arizona. The standings haven’t changed drastically over time, as now the Giants lead by half a game over the Dodgers and by three over the Diamondbacks.
ATR: Ask the Reports Answers Your Baseball Questions: Dempster Leaving Texas, MLB Attendance is Misleading, Trout vs. Harper, James McDonald Health, and Braves Won’t Go Away
Sunday August 5th, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: I seemingly talk about the Oakland A’s every day…and for good reason. This is a team on fire! Back in early July I prepared a feature titled: The Future of the Oakland A’s: The Mustache Gang Meets The Bash Brothers – Revealing Billy Beane’s Master Plan. Since that article ran, the A’s have been unstoppable. How good have the A’s been in the 2nd half? Since the start of the year, most experts (myself included) left the team for dead. The squad was seen to be in another rebuilding year and with no chance whatsoever against the powerful Rangers and Angels. But despite the doom and gloom in Oakland, I ran the feature in July to show that there was hope. There was a future. Little did I know, that 2-3 years from now would arrive today.
Take a look at the current standing. Oakland sits in 2nd place in the A.L. West, 5.5 games out of first. Nobody saw that coming. It’s August for darn sake! The A’s have a 58-49 record and if the playoffs started today, they would hold a Wild Card spot. 32-24 at home, while only 26-25 on the road. Clearly the A’s like playing at home. Yet they are near the bottom in MLB home attendance. Despite the unbelievable baseball they are playing, A’s fans are refusing to fill their stadium. It’s a darn shame, because if winning baseball won’t draw fans…nothing will. Yes, the team needs a new stadium. But without hometown support, that stadium will come in San Jose or another location. It will be interesting to see come September and October as to whether the A’s can boost attendance. I sure hope so.
How are the A’s winning you ask? Nearly everyone will say pitching. Yes, the A’s have quite the staff. The A’s have received strong pitching from the likes of Bartolo Colon, Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker, Brandon McCarthy (when healthy) and company. In the 9th inning, Ryan Cook has been lights-out. Proving once again that an unknown entity can be turned into a closer, Billy Beane has found another gem. Cook has 11 saves, 2.49 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The A’s pitching has been solid, no doubt. Yes, the staff takes advantage of its pitching friendly home park. But regardless of location, the team is winning games. In large numbers and late in ballgames. That is the sign of a championship caliber squad.
But as much as the pitching gets the credit, I look to the hitting for the true reason for the team’s success. My article on the future of the A’s, pointed to the fact that Billy Beane is building the team around young and talented hitters. Those are hitters just happened to have come through early. Yoenis Cespedes is the glue that holds the squad together. The A’s record with him in the lineup is incredible. Josh Reddick. Johnny Gomes. Chris Carter. Brandon Inge. Don’t think that the A’s are going to go out and just win 1-0 games every time. This team has the hitting to back up its staff. Overall: The A’s do not look like they are going away any time soon. As long as they stay moderately healthy, this team remains a real threat to the make the playoffs in 2012.
For our Batting Stance Guy featured video of the week, we continue the A’s theme with Gar’s tribute to the Oakland A’s greatest batting stances. Canseco, McGwire, Rickey, Hendu…they are all here. Are you a fan of the A’s? Or just love to see great imitations of classic stances? This video is for you:
Now let’s get to your top questions of the week: Read the rest of this entry
2012 Trade Deadline Update #4 7/27: Zack Greinke to the Angels – The A.L. West Just Got Wilder
Saturday July 28th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: Zack Greinke has just been traded to the Angels. It looks as if the A.L. West is turning into the A.L. East with the Rangers being the Yankees and the Angels becoming the Red Sox. Coming off two straight losses in the World Series, the Rangers signed regarded Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish in the offseason, who has worked out very well for them this year. The Angels got off to a rough start after signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, but turned their season around with the call-up of Mike Trout. With Colby Lewis needing Tommy John surgery, the Rangers are in need of another arm. Unfortunately for Rangers, the Angels just traded for one of the few quality pitchers left on the market. Zack Greinke is an ace and could turn out to be the difference maker in the A.L. West. Read the rest of this entry
MLB Parity Is At An All-Time High
Wednesday July.18/2012
The Pirates started today one game behind the Reds and are the leader of the 1st Wild Card Spot in the NL. Officially, they are 3 games up on the Dodgers for the playoff bar. With the 2nd Wild Card Team added to each League, this gives Pittburgh their best chance to make the postseason in 20 years.
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024 on twitter)- With 2 weeks before the non-waiver trade deadline, there are 21 teams within 6 games or less for the ten playoff positions. Parity has officially hit the MLB like we have never seen before. The Yankees are leading the AL East Division by 9.5 games, so the other 4 teams in the AL East enter action knowing they still have a chance. Mr Selig’s idea for the 2nd wild card has definitely kept playoff dreams alive for teams that would have been otherwise doused in the races. Baseball purists seem to hate the notion that more playoff teams breaks the tradition of yesteryear. I think that ten teams of 30 is still a great ratio (33.33%) compared to the three other Major Sports for percentage of teams making the playoffs. The NFL has 12 teams out of 32 make the playoffs (37.5%) and are the highest revenue generated sport. Both of the NBA and NHL have 16 out of 30 teams make the playoffs-which is 53.33%.
What I also like is that the new format penalizes the Wild Card teams and puts more of an emphasis on winning the divisions. Gone will be the days (like last year) where the Yankees mailed it in being happy to just lock down a playoff position and rest their veterans instead of going for the pennant. The one game playoff for those two Wild Card teams will have the teams playing for the division till the end. Having said this, I just reminded myself of that big lead for the Yankees, so they will probably have a chance to rest their guys this year anyways. The Rangers and Angels are a better example. I believe that Los Angeles will make a charge at the Texas club. None of these two teams wants to see their lives come down to a one game playoff, so if they remain close, this could be a great divisional race. Read the rest of this entry
Top Ten Stat of The Week: Odds To Win The AL/NL/WS
Monday July.9, 2012
The Yankees pay at the rate of +190 to win the American League and +375 to win the World Series. They are actually the 2nd favorite in the MLB for both to Texas. These odds are not flattering to throw any money down on either team.
Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer and @chuckbooth3024)- I thought we would try a different top ten today with the ALL-Star Break here today. This morning I did some research on the odds of what http://www.bet365.com thinks will happen for the rest of the MLB Year based on their gambling futures. Gambling is an increasing industry like no other entity in the world. The NFL is better suited for ‘punters’ to throw down some bucks at Vegas. They have only one game a week and the gambling experts think that baseball is easier for the bad teams to beat the good teams. I will tell you as one of these ‘so called experts’, they are completely right. The worst teams in baseball usually can still beat the best teams 1 out of 3 games in a series. This makes normal gambling for a regular season game really hard to make any money, or minimize losses. I do think that betting who makes the playoffs and who wins it all has some good value picks.
Y0u have to search for the value in anything. I never like to play the #1 favorites of each league because they simply don’t pay enough of an odd. Right now, Bet365.com has the Texas Rangers at +175 to win the AL, or The Yankees at +190. I love these two teams to probably represent the AL in the World Series, however these odds are not good at all. As I list all of the odds for each league first, then the World Series, I will make some notes up. I have two teams in the NL that I have already wagered with and I am coming up roses on them so far. It is time for Gambling 101. Read the rest of this entry
Ask the Reports: Your Baseball Questions Answered – Sunday January 29th, 2012
Sunday January 29th, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: Hey guys; How close do y’all think Mr. Selig is to getting his 2nd Wild Card team hooked up to the ’12 season? Old Man Mack
MLB reports: Back again on Ask the Reports. Congrats OMM! Great question as always. This one is one of my favorite topics: the MLB playoffs. Bud Selig wants to a second Wild Card team to each league, starting this season. What Bud wants, Bud usually gets. Given that Selig just signed a contract extension, he is definitely not going anywhere for a long time. With the owners and union recently agreeing to their new agreement, baseball is truly functioning in one of its golden ages. Despite economy issues in the US, baseball popularity has never been higher. To capitalize on that fandom and increase the stakes, Selig should be able to put through the added Wild Cards (I give it a 92% chance of happening). The way it will work is simple. Each league will have two Wild Card teams. To start the playoffs, the Wild Card teams will face-off in a one-game, sudden death elimination game. Winner moves on to the playoffs (same format otherwise), with the loser going home. The Wild Card playoffs will be two of the most exciting games of the year. Yes, it should happen, it will likely happen and I fully expect it to happen. At the very least, it will give two more teams a chance to win the World Series and make August/September that much more interesting for more cities and fans.
Q: Will Tyler Pastornicky‘s solid contact skills and plate discipline shape up enough to secure a lead-off slot? Justin
MLB reports: That is what the Braves are claiming. Their website shows Pastornicky pencilled in as the starting shortstop. Will he? Should he? That is debatable. The 22-year old Pastornicky was acquired by the Braves from the Jays in the 2010 Yunel Escobar swap. A 5th round pick in 2008, Pastornicky was considered a fringe prospect at the time of the trade. A .250-.260 hitter with .330 OBP capabilities was his story. The number that jumps out is the stolen bases. 57 steals in 2009 (in 75 attempts) and 35 steals in 2010 (in 44 attempts). He could steal some bags, but was definitely not a refined baserunner. Somewhat raw, good tools and upside is how he was seen going into 2011. Last year, his first full one in the Braves organization- Tyler broke out. While the steals still needed work (27 in 38 attempts), the rest of his game started to jump. .314 AVG, ..359 OBP and .414 SLG. 32 walks/45 strikeouts in 117 games. While he still was not walking enough, he was clearly starting to hit while keeping the k’s down. With the glove, the number that jumps out is 26 errors last year. I am very nervous about Pastornicky as a starting shortstop in the majors. Spring training will determine if he graduates to the opening day lineup, but my gut is that the Braves will bring in a veteran between now and April to play shortstop. If he regresses back to his .250 AVG ways, with little power, inconsistent base stealing and errors in the field, this could be a recipe for disaster. I think Pastornicky needs time to develop, to play under a veteran that can mentor him and bring up his game. He is still young and clearly has the tools and potential. But if you throw him to the wolves too early, you can shatter his confidence. He may get there, but I don’t think he is ready yet. Especially on a playoff contender like the Braves, that relies on pitching and defense, this is one gamble that they are not likely to make. Great question- thank you for sharing!
Q: How do I get players to sign cards through the mail? Joe
MLB reports: Thanks for the question Joe. Fans love autographs, it is a big part of the game. If you are looking to meet your favorite player, there is a variety of way to get signed items. If you can make it down to spring training, that is an autograph hound’s paradise. Players are very accessible and accommodating in the spring. During the year, hanging out early in batting practice in the outfield, by the lines or near the dugouts are usually great spots. Teams often host autograph events and promotions before and after games, plus around local cities. Be sure to check the website of your favorite team to see their promotion schedule. If mail is your preferred route: here is what you do. Pull off the address for the team stadium that your chosen player plays at. Send that person a letter enclosing the item that you would like signed with a nice personalized letter. Be sure to include a self-addressed, stamped envelope inside for the return of your signed item. They may be well paid, but don’t expect the players/teams to pay for your postage- they get too many requests! Some tips: be polite, send a nice letter, be reasonable in your request (what you would like signed and send only 1-2 items) and be patient. Players get hundreds of requests per week and returning mail back to you can take time. Some are more likely to send back than others. My expectation: if you send out 20 requests, you may get 3-4 back. Reading the internet and watching games, you should get an idea on which are the “nice” players and likely to respond back. Good luck and let us know how your autograph hunts go! If any readers have other autograph tips for Joe, please feel free to include them in the comments section below, with your stories.
Q: Wouldn’t landing Oswalt make the Cards rotation even better than the famed Phillie crew? N.P.
MLB reports: When I first read that question, I almost choked on my breakfast. But then the more I thought about it, you are actually not that far off. The “famed” Phillie Fab-Four were Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt. Assuming Oswalt lands in St. Louis (which is likely to happen at this point, great fit based on NL Central), Oswalt/Oswalt balance out. That means we are left with the Phillie Three Aces against Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. It’s not far off as it may appear, but it involves many “ifs”. Will Carpenter stay healthy? Can Wainwright come back from surgery and a year missed time and re-establish himself as an ace? Will Jamie Garcia continue to evolve into a top starting pitcher and returning to his 2010 form…or his is 2011 regression a sign of things to come? Too many ifs for my liking. At their best, the Cardinals rotation could come close to the Phillies rotation, if all the pitchers pitch to their peak potential and 1-2 of the Phillies pitchers have off-years. Otherwise, the answer is no. Taking them one by one: I take Halladay over Carpenter. I know Carpenter won the famed 1-0 game in the NLDS, but that is one game. Overall, Doc is healthier, more consistent and one of the best of all-time. Cliff Lee is Cliff Lee. He is as solid as them come. Wainwright if he comes back might be close to Lee, but still won’t be Lee in my opinion. Lee is just on another planet and Wainwright just needs to prove health, let alone be an ace. Hamels is due to be a free agent at season’s end. He may end up signing an extension (likely), but regardless of his contract situation- he is far superior to Garcia. The Cards should have a great rotation overall. But the Phillies staff…they still ain’t. But consider Dave Duncan is on a leave of absence and may not be back this season and I give the Phillies advantage in the rotation.
Q: Where do you see Edwin Jackson landing? Sox Wamp
MLB reports: This one is easy. If it boils down to money and years, he will land in Baltimore or a city like Seattle. If he wants to contend, Jackson may have to take a 1-year deal from the Red Sox. I am not an Edwin Jackson guy. Never have been. Never will be. Well…never say never never (hey Justin Bieber). At 28-years of age, Jackson may figure it out. It feels like he has been around forever, considering he has played 9 major league seasons. That shows you how young he was when he came to the bigs. If he was allowed to refine himself in the minors and learn control and the true art of pitching, Jackson could be one of the best on the planet. His stuff is that good. But with a 1.476 lifetime WHIP (1.437 in 2011), he is far from a control ace pitcher. The funny thing is that he doesn’t even strike out enough people. A pitcher who doesn’t strike out many, gives up too many hits and walks????!!!! No thank you. Someone will pay and give him a 3-year, $30 million contract. Or he may go to Boston and try to build up value. Jackson though would be smart to take the guaranteed money. He is a ticking time bomb that could go off at any time. Good luck to the team that signs him, I hope they have a strong pitching coach and lots of video to coach this quasi-project still.
Last Question (this is a biggie): No lefty has hit more than 14 HR at Comerica in one season. If that is the Avg do you see him (Prince Fielder) hitting 24 on the road? Steve Karsay
MLB reports: Yes folks, this is THE Steve Karsay appearing on Ask the Reports. A good friend of ours, we appreciate Steve taking the time to write in with his inquiry. Firstly, thank you Steve for the question. A great one…one that many fans have been asking since the big signing. As you and I have talked before on Prince, you know that I am a believer of the big man. I like the move for the Tigers on many levels (check out my top 10 reasons why the Prince signing will work, my recent feature on the Reports. There are some factors to consider. Carlos Pena back in the day had those 14 bombs. Other than Pena and maybe Granderson, have the Tigers ever had a left-handed power-hitting machine like Prince? I would say no. Maggs? Righty. Juan Gonzalez? Righty. Miggy? Righty. So in fairness to Prince, we don’t have a scale of players to compare him against. Also in 2003, the park dimensions changed and it became easier to hit balls out of Comerica. I have attended many many many games in Comerica in my day. I have seen approximately 2 home runs per game on the average. Now that may not be the biggest sample size (50-75 games), but large enough that I would say that park is far from a pitcher’s haven. I can see Prince hitting 24 home runs on the road, yes. But I see him hitting at least 20 home runs per year at home. Maybe not every year, but it will happen. The great thing about records, is that they are meant to be broken. That is part of Prince’s object to coming to Detroit. To establish new records and become “the man” in Motown. Fans are excited to see what a Prince/Miggy combination can do in Detroit. For your Indians Steve, it means the road to the playoffs just got that much tougher. Thank you for the question and you are welcome anytime back on the Reports!
ARCHIVE: Click here for Past Issues of Ask the Reports
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen) Follow @mlbreports
Ask the Reports: Sunday December 25th
Sunday December 25, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: As things stand right now, who wins the divisions and Wild Cards from AL/NL in 2012? Steve
MLB reports: It’s not even 2012 and you want me to give you a sneak on predictions? Sure. I’m game! Which MLB teams will make the playoffs in 2012. I am looking at the crystal ball. We are going to assume there is still only one Wild Card team per league. I am finding it a little hazy at this point, but here is what I am seeing:
American League:
East: Tampa Bay Rays: Still the cream of the east. Nobody is touching that pitching staff, led by David Price, James Shields and company. The Rays could still add a bat or two before the season starts. If pitching is king, the Rays are royalty.
Central: Detroit Tigers. The class of the division and this one isn’t even close. Justin Verlander. Miguel Cabrera. Victor Martinez. Alex Avila. Full seasons of Doug Fister and Delmon Young. MLB should just hand them the division title right now and save everyone else the trouble. It is a great time to be a Tigers fan.
West: Houston Astros (just kidding…they don’t get their chance until 2013). Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Surprised? Me too. Most would expect me to say the Rangers. But with the Angels pitching and offense bulked up by Albert Pujols, the Angels get my vote. Jeff Weaver. C.J. Wilson. Dan Haren. Peter Bourjos. I see where the Angels are headed and they have the horses now to take the West. Their pitching is still stellar and with all that offense that is coming….a miracle will happen in Anaheim in 2012.
Wild Card: Texas Rangers. The AL West will go down to the last day of the season likely. With that offense led by Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Mike Napoli…Texas will be tough to beat. The difference will be pitching. Sure they have Yu Darvish. But I don’t think he will be enough to get the AL West title. But it will still get Texas into the playoffs again.
National League:
East: Philadelphia Phillies. Yes Ryan Howard is out for some time. Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins are getting older. But Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels equates to an automatic division title. Book it.
Central: Cincinnati Reds: My pick for the second straight year. With the Brewers and Cardinals both losing key parts, it is time for the Reds to shine. A pitching staff led by Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto. The dangerous offensive weapons of Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. Devin Mesoraco becoming the full-time catcher. 2012 will be a bright year for the Reds.
West: Arizona Diamondbacks. No longer a surprise, the Dbacks are loaded to make another strong run in 2012. On top of the returning team, Trevor Cahill will be a strong addition. Kirk Gibson has a nice mix of offense, defense, starting pitchers and a deep pen. The Dbacks are the team to beat in 2012.
Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals. The 2011 World Series champions are back for more. While the loss of Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa will be devastating, Dave Duncan returns as the pitching coach. Carlos Beltran should pick some of the offensive slack, plus Adam Wainwright will be back from injury. With Wainwright, Carpenter and Garcia leading the rotation, the Cards should make the postseason.
Q: (a) Exactly how does the “bidding”, say for Yu Darvish work? Where’s that $54 million go towards?
(b) How will Fielder (likely) and Pujols leaving the NL Central affect the division? Lee
MLB reports: A two-part question for you today Lee, nicely done! (a) The Darvish posting fee ($51.7 million) goes to his former Japanese team, the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters as a transfer fee. All MLB teams had a window in which to submit a bid for the rights to negotiate with Darvish. In that time, the Rangers submitted the highest bid. The Ham Fighters did not know the team, only the winning bid. Now the Rangers have 30 days to sign Darvish to a contract. If Darvish signs, the Ham Fighters keep the $51.7 million. If no contract, Darvish goes back to Japan for next year and can be re-posted in 2013. Expect Darvish though to sign with Texas and the Ham Fighters to keep the posting fee.
Now on to part 2 of your question. You are correct in your estimation, as Prince Fielder is likely to join Albert Pujols and leave the NL Central. The departures of the two stars means that the NL Central crown is up for grabs. As per my earlier answer, the Reds are now the heavy favorites to win the Central. The Cards will still be in it, as the return of Wainwright will drastically help the team. But nobody can know how the team will play without Pujols and its former manager, Tony La Russa. The Brewers could be in big trouble, especially if Ryan Braun is lost for any lengthy period of time. Prince Fielder did not get enough credit for the success of the Milwaukee Brewers. Now the team will have a reality check when he is gone in 2012.
Q: As of today, what are the top-5 rotations in MLB? Fredy
MLB reports: A great…great…great question. What a fantastic discussion point and source of debate. With all the cries about the lack of pitching in baseball, there are some fantastic rotations out there. Now, with trades and free agent signings, this list could change. But as of today, here are my top rotations in baseball (in order):
1) Tampa Bay Rays: Some teams may have a better 1-2-3 punch. But for overall depth and quality, the Rays are the class of baseball. David Price, James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson can run with the best of them. Then add Matt Moore, Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann into the equation and you have baseball’s best rotation. With even more good young pitchers coming through the minors, the Rays have an embarrassment of riches. A trade could still come through the pipe, but even still, the Rays are my selection.
2) Philadelphia Phillies: Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee are the most devastating top-2 starters I have ever watched in my life. They have the chance of being one of the best duos of all time, and that is saying a lot. Cole Hamels could be an ace for many other teams and is playing for his next big pay-day. Vance Worley had a solid 2011 campaign and should do much of the same this year for the Phillies. The 5th job will likely be between Kyle Kendrick and Joe Blanton, unless another move is made. The Phillies may not be the most complete team in baseball, but they certainly have one of the top rotations in the game.
3) San Francisco Giants: This team does not require much explanation. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner. Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito to round out the squad. You would have a very difficult time finding a better top-3 when they are on. Cain is one of my personal favorites and one of the most underrated players in the game in my estimation.
4) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: My pick to win the AL West and a big reason is this staff. Jeff Weaver and Dan Haren are the foundation of the team. C.J. Wilson should be a great #3 on a team where he will not be expected to be the ace. Between Ervin Santana, Jerome Williams and Garrett Richards, Mike Scoscia should be able to fill in the rest of his rotation.
5) Atlanta Braves: I struggled with this one. I was thinking Cards, Reds and even the Nationals. While each of those teams had some top guns, it was their lack of depth that made them fall of the list. The Braves are my pick for having strong pitchers, but just the best depth in the rotations that were left. Tim Hudson. Jair Jurrjens (if not traded). Tommy Hanson (if healthy). Brandon Beachy. Mike Minor. Randall Delgaldo. Julio Teheran. Just having Teheran alone shoots this rotation up the list. They may not be the flashiest, but the Braves have a choice of starting pitchers that other teams just drool over.
Q: Will Ubaldo Jimenez regain his 2010 first half form? David
MLB reports: Is there a bigger source of frustration in baseball? The Ubaldo from 2011 looked nothing like the recent Ubaldo we have come to know. He will be turning 28 in January (in Dominican years) and should just be entering the prime of his career. I will tell you my gut feeling…and Cleveland fans, you will not like it. I have seen this pattern too many times over the years. Occasionally a pitcher goes through a dead-arm period, where their numbers and performance all of a sudden drops drastically. Through rest and a change in mechanics, the form can return. But that is the exception to the rule. Usually when a decline like Ubaldo’s appears, it means that there is an injury in hiding. I will be very surprised if Ubaldo regains his form overnight. I am looking at a crystal ball and my sense is a visit to Dr. Andrews in his future. This is a gut feeling, but a very strong one. It could be heartburn, but I doubt it.
Q: Tim Wheeler and Seth Smith for Prado or Jurrjens? Joe
MLB reports: Its a possibility, but I don’t see it happening. Wheeler is the real deal and I can’t see the Rockies moving him at this point. Smith is a useful role player and could blossom into a steady every day player, but I have my doubts. Between Jurrjens and Prado, I take Jurrjens if I’m the Rockies. A great pitcher, but has issues staying healthy. The key component in this trade is Wheeler. The former 1st round pick is highly rated and was terrific last season with 33 home runs in AA. Rockies say no, Braves say yes. But if it happens, it would be for Jurrjens also. Martin Prado is another useful player, but not a star and worth the cost of a top prospect.
Q: Which team makes the biggest jump in the ‘Power Rankings’ if they sign Fielder? Bleacher GM
MLB reports: Another great question! Prince Fielder will instantly help any team that signs him. But who will make the biggest jump…now that is a different story. I could see the Jays being stronger playoff contenders with him. The Rangers would be even that much more dangerous. But the biggest jumps would be based on a team with potential that needs to go the next level. My picks in order would be the Nationals, Mariners and Orioles. With Prince on board, I could see the Nats finally climbing from potential to contenders. The Mariners and Orioles would go from the basement to respectability overnight. Yes, Prince has that kind of power and abilities to make everyone else around him better. But the Nationals get my vote, given their emerging pitching staff and great young hitters. If the Nats sign Prince, we could be looking at the Nats in the playoffs by 2013. The Mariners are still far too behind on offense to become contenders and the Orioles are still emerging and integrating as a young team. The Mariners get the edge based on their pitching staff. But imagine Prince hitting between Harper and Zimmerman. Just the thought gets me very excited!
Final Question of the day: Here’s a good question, what was the one moment that made you realize baseball was your niche? Eric
MLB reports: I needed a week to ponder this one Eric. One of the most insightful and deep questions ever presented to me. I always knew that I had a deep love for baseball. I have read about the game and its players and studied the sport for most of life. I have always enjoyed writing about baseball, but never knew where it would be headed. In conducting interviews, I felt a good connection to the game and the people associated with it. But the true point when I knew it was my calling- now that is a different story. I would have to say when a leading baseball writer for a well-known baseball publication told me that he reads the site regularly and enjoys my work, that was the instance I felt that I had something special. When a writer of his caliber and experience was quoting my work and praising it, I literally had goosebumps. That was the defining moment in my career. From there, when I get emails and messages from baseball fans all over the world- it makes all the hard work very gratifying. I enjoy touching people’s lives and being able to deliver to them positive information and analysis on the game of baseball. Finding the right writers who had the same principles, work ethic and ideas was the key to the growth of the site. I definitely love what I do. I believe that people lead busy lives and time is precious. By people taking the time out of their lives to read my work, I have an obligation to provide them with the best baseball writing that I can deliver. It is an honor that I get to interact with as many baseball fans that I do as part of my role as a Baseball Writer. It is the greatest game on the planet and I am proud to be able to make contributions to baseball through my writing. Thank you for the question!
ARCHIVE: Click here for Past Issues of Ask the Reports
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Understanding the New MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement
Friday November 25, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement signed between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association, comes an opportunity to see where baseball has failed and succeeded. While many have said that the agreement hurts small market teams or is unfair to teams with bigger scouting departments, I believe it affects all teams in a grand way. By now, most of you have heard the details of the agreement, so I will only touch upon a few of the main points.
Houston Astros will move to the AL West in 2013. There will be 15 teams per league and interleague games played all year round.
Interleague all year round can be a tricky subject. Especially if an AL team is playing interleague games in the last week of a playoff race, and their pitcher has to hit. This may cause a major headache, where teams will want the designated hitter in both leagues.
A second wild card team will be added no later than 2013.
The two wild card teams of each league will play in a one game winner take all sudden death playoff. This can give a distinct disadvantage to the winning wild card team, as they will only be able to use their ace once in the LDS.
The Elias system of ranking free agents as Type A, Type B or Type C (unranked) will no longer be used to gauge compensation for the teams losing free agents.
The only way a team will receive compensation for losing a free agent is if they make a guaranteed qualifying one year contract equal to the average salary of the top 125 highest paid players. This is approximately $12.4M for this year.
The minimum salary will rise from $414,000 in 2011 to $480,000 in 2012. It will also rise to $490,000 in 2013 and $500,000 in 2014.
Major League Baseball Amateur Draft Signing Deadline will not be between July 12 and July 18, depending on when the All-Star Game is played.
This pushes the deadline for drafted players to sign up a month. Seeing as most players wouldn’t sign until the last minutes of the deadline in the past, this will make a huge difference. Signed players can be assigned to teams and get their professional careers started. Teams will be able to develop them for longer and put their stamp on them sooner.
Each team will be assigned an aggregate signing bonus pool for their first 10 rounds of the draft.
The number of money available to be spent is dependent upon a team’s standing in the draft and how many picks they possess. Therefore, if a team picks 1st overall and has 14 picks in the first 10 rounds, they will have more available money to spend than a team that drafts 30th and has only 10 picks. After the first 10 rounds, teams may only sign players for no more than $100,000. If a player signs for more than that amount, the excess gets counted against the pool of money for the first 10 rounds. What this means is that if a player is drafted in the 18th round and signs for $125,000, the extra $25,000 goes against their spending pool.
It is possible to go over this threshold; however MLB has placed very large penalties for doing so. If a team goes over their allotted pool by 0-5%, a 75% tax is implemented.
- 5-10% over equals a 75% tax + loss of 1st round draft pick in the following draft
- 10-15% over equals 100% tax + loss of 1st and 2nd round draft pick in the following draft
- 15%+ equals 100% tax + loss of 1st round draft pick in the next two drafts
While this seems like it could be a recipe for disaster, the MLB recommended slots will be higher and more realistic than in the past. The top 10 picks in the draft will have slots of the following:
1 – $7.2M
2 – $6.2M
3 – $5.2M
4 – $4.2M
5 – $3.5M
6 – $3.25M
7 – $3M
8 – $2.9M
9 – $2.8M
10 – $2.7M
This represents approximately 1.5 times the slot from previous years, so the cap will not be as drastic as most would assume.
There will be a new Competitive Balance Lottery to award draft picks to small market and low revenue teams.
The 10 teams in the smallest markets with the lowest revenue will be entered into a lottery for 6 draft picks after the first round, with the teams with the lowest winning percentage the previous year having a higher chance of picking first.
Each club will be given a pool of money to spend on International free agents.
For 2012 and 2013 international free agent signing period, the soft cap will be $2.9M. After that, teams will be given more or less money dependent on record in the previous year. There will also be penalties for going over this limit, which are as follows:
- 0-5% – 75% tax
- 5-10% – 75% tax and will not be able to spend more than $500,000 on one player
- 10-15% – 100% tax and will not be able to spend more than $500,000 on one player
- 15%+ – 100% tax and will not be able to spend more than $250,000 on one player
Players, managers and coaches are prohibited from using smokeless tobacco anytime that fans are permitted into the ballpark. They also must not be visible in interviews or club interviews. They may not carry the product on them or in their uniforms.
Most see this as a deterrent for the players from using the products and giving less exposure to impressionable youth. While this may be true, players will still continue to use smokeless tobacco, they will just keep their wads out of sight. No more seeing guys like Nick Swisher with his lip stuck out halfway to the pitcher, that’s for sure.
HGH Blood testing will be implemented starting in Spring Training 2012.
There are many arguments for and against this, and I agree with both. It eases the minds of millions of people that the “Steroid Era” is behind us, yet if testing is done during Spring Training, it gives ample time for someone to get off HGH and resume normal workouts before tested. Tests will also be administered with reasonable cause throughout the season, and random, unannounced testing could be done as early as next off-season.
New helmets designed by Rawlings will be used by 2013.
These helmets will protect up to speeds of 100mph, as opposed to the helmets used now, which protect a batter up to speeds of 90mph. Previous versions have been worn by players coming back from concussions such as David Wright, but players disapproved because they were too bulky and uncomfortable. This version will apparently be much sleeker and more comfortable.
If a player is selected to play in the All-Star Game, he must attend, unless excused by the Office of the Commissioner.
There will be a Social Media Policy in place for all players, coaches and executives.
The policy is being drawn up, and there is a chance that you could see fan favorites on Twitter such as Logan Morrison of the Miami Marlins slightly more censored. His new manager, Ozzie Guillen, could also see censorship or face penalties. I think that part of the allure of the game is that players speak their minds. From Dirk Hayhurst opening up about life in the minor leagues, to Logan Morrison saying what he feels on Twitter, it is something that can bring more youth to the games. Censoring these players may not be in the best interest of the game, but I will reserve judgment until I find out the exact parameters of the policy.
Instant replay will be expanded.
Replay will be used on plays involving “trapped” catches, as well as fair or foul ball calls. While everyone loves the human element of the game, and most argue that more instant replay will slow the game down, I am of the ilk that it will speed the game up. Rather than a manager visiting the umpire to argue a call, yell for five minutes, kick dirt on him and get ejected, the umpire crew can simply go straight to replay, and the play is withheld or upturned in a matter of a minute.
This is basically a very condensed version of the whole CBA, but radical changes are certainly abound in the MLB. While some are seen as good changes, and some are seen as bad, I am fairly neutral on the matter. Whereas the MLB achieved close to its goal of having a hard slotting system, the MLBPA also received higher minimum salaries and less restrictions on free agents. It is a give and take system, and it will take a few years to really see how it affects teams. Expect teams and agents to find loopholes in the agreement and exploit them to their greatest benefit.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Expanding the MLB Postseason: More Wild Card Teams Coming
Follow @mlbreports
Friday October 21, 2011
MLB reports – Rob Bland: Expanding the playoffs has been a hot topic for many years now. While the move will not be as drastic as when the MLB added the first wild card team in each league, it has drawn the ire from a lot of critics. In 1994, MLB was to use the postseason system currently in place; however the season was cut short due to a player strike. It was then that the MLB went to three divisions in each league (East, Central, and West) as well as a wild card team (the best non-divisional winner record in the league). The American league Divisional winners would have been the New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox in the Central and Texas Rangers in the West (with a record of 52-61). Conversely, the Cleveland Indians would have been the wild card winners at 66-47. In the National League, the East would have been won by the Montreal Expos, who had the MLB’s best record of 74-40. The Central and West would have been won by the Cincinnati Reds and LA Dodgers, respectively, while the wild card winner would have been the Atlanta Braves.
However, due to the strike, which also shortened the following season, 1995 was the first year this system actually came into play. This season saw a shortened 144 game schedule. The NL East winners, Atlanta Braves had to go through the slugging Colorado Rockies; the first NL wild card team. They then faced the Reds, and the eventual World Series Champions Cleveland Indians. The Indians took a very peculiar path to the World Series. After leading the MLB with a 100-44 record, the Indians faced the Boston Red Sox, winners of the AL East, who had the 2nd best record in the American League. The Yankees were the wild card winners, who were defeated by the Seattle Mariners in the AL Division Series.
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement between the commissioner, Bud Selig, with the MLB and its players’ union expires in December of this year, and an extension of five years is expected to be reached any day. One of the main hold-ups to a deal is the addition of another wild card team. The 2nd best non-divisonal winner would get into the playoffs. This may not seem like much, where every other major sports league in North America has at least 3 “wild card” teams, but in baseball, tradition is always at the top of people’s minds. Adding a team to each league’s postseason picture could lengthen the MLB season, which is something that is a major concern to most people involved in the process.
One option that was bandied around was to have the two wild card teams face off in a best 2 out of 3 series. The advantage of this short series is that both teams that didn’t win their division would have to play extra games while the winners get a short break to recuperate their injured players. Also, the extra games give opportunities to more teams to earn extra postseason revenue, which benefits the league. However, the extra 2-4 days off that the other teams would have to endure could also cause a team to lose its momentum gained at the end of the season.
However, it is believed that the MLB will go to a one game sudden death playoff between the two wild card teams. In my opinion, the biggest advantage to this is that it gives the winner of the game a monumental disadvantage going into the second round. The wild card teams would be forced to pitch their ace in the playoff, and therefore would not be able to pitch until at least game 3 of the next round. This means the team’s best starter would only get one start in a best of 5 series. Not only would the team with the best record in the league have home-field advantage, but they would see their opponent’s best pitcher in only one game.
In the current state of the MLB postseason, ten wild card teams have made it to the World Series, out of a possible 34 teams going back to 1995, including 2011. Roughly 29% of wild card teams make it into the World Series. If you figure that 1 out of 4 teams in each league make it to the World Series, or 25%, then you have a better chance of making it as a wild card than as a divisional winner. Four World Series have been won by wild card teams. 25% of World Series have been won by a team that should have a distinct disadvantage, but obviously do not. It is due to this that MLB must make it a bigger hindrance for not winning your division. Playing an extra game, extra travel and burning your ace are ways to weaken a wild card team’s chance of making it to the World Series.
With the union and MLB reps meeting every day trying to hammer out the extension for the CBA, you should see the added teams in the playoffs in 2012 or 2013. It is widely expected that the deal will be reached in the middle of the World Series to take advantage or the added publicity it would gain. I am fairly certain that the new playoff format will come into effect for the 2012 season, and there will be a lot of teams looking to push the envelope and make an appearance.
World Series: Game 2 Recap
Game 2 was a bit of a surprise, as Jaime Garcia, whom many picked to implode in this guy, had a great start. Through 7 solid innings, he gave up only 3 hits and 1 walk to 7 strike outs. Colby Lewis was equally as impressive until the 7th inning, where he was able to strike Matt Holliday out to lead off the inning. David Freese then singled and Yadier Molina flew out. Nick Punto then hit a ground ball towards first base that went off of Michael Young’s glove and into right field, moving Freese to third. With runners on the corners and one out in the 7th, Alexi Ogando came in to face the hitter in the pitcher’s spot. That hitter: Allen Craig. The same hero of game 1 that hit a single to right field that scored the go ahead and eventual winning run. Craig promptly lined a ball to right field to score David Freese, breaking the dead lock.
What would a playoff game be without drama? Jason Motte came in the 9th to close out the 1-0 game. So far in the postseason, he had given up 1
hit in 29 plate appearances. Ian Kinsler led off the inning with a bloop single off the end of the bat. Elvis Andrus came up to the plate and looked to get a sac bunt on the ground, but Kinsler decided to take matters in his own hands, and stole second base by the smallest of margins. Andrus then lifted a 2-2 pitch to center field for a single. While Kinsler was held at 3rd, Cardinals CF Jon Jay threw the ball wide of the cutoff man, which allowed Andrus to slide safely into 2nd base.
Manager Tony La Russa then yanked Motte for lefty Arthur Rhodes to face Josh Hamilton. On the first pitch, he hit a fly ball to right that scored Kinsler and advanced Andrus to third. Even more like La Russa, he brought in Lance Lynn to face Michael Young, who hit a 3-2 curveball deep enough to center to scored Andrus, and the Rangers lead the game 2-1.
Rangers closer Neftali Feliz took the mound in the bottom of the 9th and walked Yadier Molina on 5 pitches 97 mph or faster, hitting 100 on the radar gun with the first pitch. Nick Punto came to the plate, bunted two balls foul up around his eyes, then swung feebly to strike out. Feliz then struck out Skip Schumaker and induced a fly ball off the bat of Rafael Furcal to seal the victory.
With the series tied at one game apiece, an off day tomorrow and game 3 slated for Saturday night in Texas, this series is only going to get better. Keep checking MLB reports for your daily fix of updates on the World Series.
Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
The Curious Case of Carl Crawford
Thursday September 23, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): When the 2010 season concluded, many people looked at the trio of Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth as easily the most sought after players. Lee has not disappointed in Philadelphia, where he will garner serious attention for the NL Cy Young Award. Werth and Crawford, however, have been pretty big disappointments after signing extremely lucrative contracts over 7 years. Werth received $126M, while Crawford made the biggest splash, inking a deal worth $142M. While Werth has been lucky to play in front of smaller crowds playing in Washington DC, Crawford has had to endure the masses of critics in Boston. This is on top of playing in the AL East, battling for the division title, while the team is in a free-fall where the Tampa Bay Rays are gaining ground in the AL Wild Card race.
Crawford came to the Red Sox with HUGE expectations. Fans of the Red Sox expected him to not only repeat his career season from 2010, but exceed his statistics. In 2010 with the Rays, Crawford surpassed most of his best seasons in almost every statistical category. He hit .307 with 19 home runs and 90 RBI, while scoring 110 runs and stealing 47 bases. His on-base percentage was .356 and he slugged at a .495 clip, giving him an OPS of .851. In 2011, surrounded by all-star and MVP caliber players, he has struggled to gain any kind of consistency. He has limped into the end of September with a .255/.292/.401 slash line.
Crawford has only been able to steal 18 bases, which is by far his worst full season total in the MLB. On June 17th, Crawford sustained a grade 1 strain of his hamstring, and did not return to the lineup until July 18th. At the time, Crawford’s OBP of .275 and slugging percentage of .384 were near the bottom of the league. If Crawford had been hot until the injury, and simply fizzled out after he came back, we would have a simple answer.
Crawford has actually fared better since the injury, but I believe he has lost a step. Crawford relies on speed, and hamstrings often take a very long time to heal. His game is based on slapping balls through the infield and driving balls to the gaps, turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Many people thought that the Green Monster would be peppered with line drives off Crawford’s bat, as well as triples going into the deep right-center field gap. With Crawford’s hamstring issues, he doesn’t seem to be able to drive the ball as well as in recent years.
Another issue with Crawford seems to be that he has been slightly unlucky compared to other years. His BABIP over the course of his
career is .329, while 2009 and 2010 it had been .342. This year, the stat sits at .300. Often, when seeing a dip in BABIP, you can look at a player’s line drive rate and see that the player is not hitting as many line drives. Crawford’s line drive rate is 17.8%, which is actually up from last year’s 16.5%. His fly ball and ground ball rates have also mostly gone unchanged. One thing I did notice was that his percentage of bunts for base hits is 0. Early in his career, Crawford would attempt to bunt upwards of 15 to 18 times per season. This year, Crawford has only attempted three bunts. This could be due to his hamstring not being 100% also.
Crawford’s dWAR, (or defensive Wins Above Replacement), which is a defensive stat that shows how a player is able to field balls inside and outside the zone of his position, has always been one of his strong points. For outfielders, he has been near the top of the league regularly over the last five years. This season, however, his dWAR is at -0.5, which negates entirely his limited offensive production.
With such close similarities in his batted ball rates, one would expect a slight drop in production due to his lower BABIP. However, with such a large gap in last year’s production to this year’s, despite a better overall line-up batting around him, one has to really think about what has happened to Crawford.
Crawford may be a multi, multi-millionaire that most of us would give up anything to be, but what most of us forget is that these MLB superstars are human. Hitting in front of 40,000 screaming, raving Red Sox lunatic fans surely cannot be an easy task. When playing in Tampa for the first 6 years of his career, he rarely faced hostility or scrutiny at home. The media has scrutinized every little move he has made this season, because he is under a microscope now. All this pressure and expectations after signing such a huge contract can take a toll on a player both psychologically and physically.
Here is a radical thought: Fenway’s odd dimensions have actually hurt Crawford offensively. Left fielders play shallower in Boston than in any other park, due to the Green Monster. This means that shallow flares, bloop pop ups and even live drive singles are taken out of the equation. While you can argue that this would then alter every other hitter’s stats, I think that the style of offense that Crawford plays, combined with bad luck, and a slight drop off in actual performance have been the main contributors to his poor statistics.
Look for Crawford to settle into the Boston atmosphere and return to his career averages in statistics in 2012. If he doesn’t, there will be many Sox fans clamouring to get rid of him at any cost.
***Today’s feature was prepared by Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
The Hunt for Red Sox October
September 14, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): Red Sox Nation is panicking. On September 1, the Boston Red Sox held a 9 game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays. Today, on September 13, they sit only 3 games ahead. Since then, the Red Sox have gone 2-9, while Tampa has gone 8-3. Many people believe that Tampa Bay has the pitching to get the job done. Led by “Big Game” James Shields and David Price, they have a rotation that has been one of the top in the league all season. As a team, they have given up the least amount of hits by 80 in the American League. Their team ERA is also tops in the American League at 3.56.
Boston is limping into the end of the season, with 3 of their 5 opening week starters injured in some fashion in the last month. Jon Lester has been every bit of the ace the Red Sox need him to be, with a 15-7 record and 3.07 ERA. However, when the Sox leaned on him on September 11 against Tampa, he lasted only 4 innings, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks. John Lackey has been awful this year. I cringe when I look at his stats. 6.30 ERA, 180 hits in 144 innings, and 18 hit batsmen to lead the league. How has he won 12 games? Buchholz was solid before going on the disable list, giving up only 76 hits in 82 2/3 innings, but hasn’t pitched since June 16. It is believed he could be back as soon as next week, but in a limited bullpen role at best, so his impact won’t be felt much. Josh Beckett has been great this year as well, but rolled his ankle in the 4th inning of his last start. At one point, after throwing a complete game, 1 hit shutout on June 15, his ERA sat at 1.86. He is currently 12-5 with a 2.49 ERA, and a WHIP of 0.985. Daisuke Matsuzaka was a bust this year and required Tommy John Surgery in June. In his place is knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who currently sits at 200 wins on his career. Wakefield hasn’t made it look pretty this year, but has put in 139 2/3 valuable innings to date.
Tampa Bay boasts one of the top rotations in baseball, with Opening Day starter David Price pitching very solid, without much run support. He has a 12-12 record but his ERA is 3.40 and has reached the 200 strikeout plateau for the first time in his young career. Big Game James doesn’t need much of an introduction, as his 11 complete games and 4 shutouts lead the MLB. He has already thrown 226 innings, a career high, with 210 strikeouts, also a career high. Wade Davis has thrown 165 soli
d innings as a follow-up to being 4th in Rookie of the Year balloting last season. Jeff Niemann is really blossoming into a dependable middle of the rotation pitcher, going 10-7 with a 3.97 ERA in 129 innings. He doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters, but doesn’t walk many either, shown by his 3 K/BB ratio. One of the frontrunners for AL Rookie of the Year is Jeremy Hellickson, who has been pretty much lights out all year. With a 2.96 ERA and only giving up 135 hits in 170 innings, he will surely garner some votes. The one wild card that the Rays hold, however, is Matt Moore. Moore was just called up to fill a role similar to David Price in 2008. He will be electric out of the bullpen after a minor league season that will rank him in the top 5 of all prospects going into next season.
Boston’s offense is abound with potential MVP’s and great hitters. 1 through 9, the Red Sox boast one of the best lineups I can remember. Jacoby Ellsbury may win the MVP, but he will have to go through Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez first. Also, David Ortiz is again proving the naysayers wrong, as he is hitting .313 with 29 home runs and 92 RBI. When a player of JD Drew’s caliber can go on the disabled list and be replaced with Josh Reddick, who is hitting .298 and slugging .491 in 250 plate appearances, it gives a lot of confidence to a pitching staff. Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia finally seems like the player who the Atlanta Braves envisioned when they drafted him in the 1st round in 2003. Jason Varitek is also enjoying a fine season as a backup to Saltalamacchia, hitting 11 home runs in only 234 plate appearances. This offense is one that no team will want to face in the final weeks of the season or the playoffs if they reach that far.
Tampa Bay may not have the “sexy” offensive players that the Red Sox do, but they have some players having mighty fine seasons. Ben Zobrist has overlooked his mediocre 2010 season, and has put up numbers closer to his breakout 2009. Although he probably won’t ever match that season, his 45 doubles lead the American League, and has a very good OPS of .820. Casey Kotchman is still an on-base machine with little pop from first base. He has hit at a .313 clip with a .382 on-base percentage, setting the table for the big run producers. Evan Longoria may be having a down year by his standards, but most teams would be happy with a third baseman hitting 25 home runs and slugging .818. Through May, Matt Joyce was an early favorite for AL MVP, but really tapered off in June and July, before turning it back up in the last month. His .843 OPS leads the team, and he also has 12 stolen bases. BJ Upton continues to be a low average, high power type of hitter, with 20 home runs and 27 stolen bases while hitting just .234. The worst position in terms of offensive production has been shortstop, where Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez have handled most of the duties. The Rays’ high-tempo style of offense has wreaked havoc on opposing batteries, as they have stolen 130 bases, good for third in the American League.
Both teams have completely different styles and techniques, but are successful in their own ways. With the Rays aggressive style, and the Red Sox more reliant on taking pitches and making pitchers work, getting deep into bullpens early, this could be a battle to the bitter end. The schedules they play the rest of the way will also dictate who is more likely to win the race for the Wild Card.
Boston:
1 vs Toronto
4 vs Tampa Bay
7 vs Baltimore
3 vs New York
Tampa Bay:
1 vs Baltimore
4 vs Boston
7 vs New York
3 vs Toronto
It is quite evident that Boston has a much easier schedule, and should win a fair number of them. The Red Sox have gone 11-4 against the Yankees this year also. Tampa has gone 5-6 against the Yankees, whom they see 7 more times. Boston gets Baltimore 7 more times, and have beaten them 8 out of 11 games so far. The pivotal series of all will be this weekend when the two teams square off against one another. The game of the weekend may be on Friday September 16, where James Shields faces off against Josh Beckett.
I believe that Tampa Bay will come within a game or two, but the schedule differences give Boston a HUGE advantage. The Red Sox 18-6 drubbing of the Blue Jays on Tuesday will be a catalyst for the team over the next two weeks, where they will produce runs and pitch just well enough to get into the postseason.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Jobless in 2012 – MLB Managers on the Hot Seat from 2011
Saturday September 10, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): When a team has a disappointing season, the most likely candidate to lose his job is the manager. So far in the 2011 season, there has already been three managers who have either resigned or been fired. The Oakland Athletics fired Bob Geren on June 9th and replaced him with Bob Melvin. A week and a half later, Edwin Rodriguez resigned from his post as manager of the Florida Marlins. Jack McKeon became the oldest manager since Connie Mack at 80 years old. Yet another week later on June 26th, Jim Riggleman of the Washington Nationals resigned and was replaced by Davey Johnson two days later. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, who are the frontrunners to be replaced after the World Series?
With eight managers being new to their respective teams to start the 2011 season, one would think there can’t be too many jobs to lose. The first criteria I look at in order to predict who will not be returning his club is if the team was expected to contend for the playoffs, and fell short. Another thing I look at is the perception of the clubhouse, ie. if players get along, or if the manager is able to manage egos. Of course, the manager’s ability to create a lineup and manage a bullpen is taken into consideration. Other factors such as injuries and expectations of players are measured as well. The list that follows are my top 3 managers who could be canned after this season.
Mike Quade, Chicago Cubs
It is not oft
en that I would think a first year manager would be fired like this, but there are so many circumstances that make me believe he will be gone. First, there has been grumbling since day one in Chicago that Quade was hired over franchise icon Ryne Sandberg. The Cubs have been packed with talented players such as Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Marmol. Add in Matt Garza and Starlin Castro, and you would think they could at least come close in the terrible NL Central. They are 22 games behind the streaking Milwaukee Brewers, and 21.5 behind Atlanta for the Wild Card. Their record is 62-81 with a 35-40 record at Wrigley Field.
Bud Black, San Diego Padres
With 2011 being Black’s 5th season with the Padres, a 62-82 record and already 21 games behind Arizona for the NL West title, he could be on the way out. The Padres have yet to reach the postseason under Black, however they were involved in a 1-game playoff with Colorado for the Wild Card title in 2007 that many of us will never forget as one of the most exciting games we have ever witnessed. In 2010, the Padres held a 6.5 game lead over eventual World Series Champs San Francisco Giants on August 25th. After a 10 game losing streak, the Padres were still in contention, and were not officially eliminated from the playoffs until the final day of the regular season with a 90-72 record. Those were the only winnings seasons in Black’s tenure and his time in San Diego may be up.
Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota Twins
Is it really fair to say Gardenhire’s job is in jeopardy? Probably not, but it definitely is possible. Over his 10 year career with the Twins, he has amassed an 861-740 record and they have been in the playoffs 6 times. However, they have only won 6 games, 4 of which were in one series, in Gardenhire’s first season; 2002. The Twins have not won a playoff game since 2004, being swept in 2006, 2009 and 2010 in the American League Division Series. This year, Gardenhire has had to deal with crippling injuries of former AL MVP’s Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. Statistically, the best hitter has been Michael Cuddyer, hitting .282 with 18 home runs and 64 RBI. The best pitcher has been Scott Baker who is 8-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 131 2/3 innings. Francisco Liriano has not been the same as he was before undergoing Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season, and aside from his no-hitter against the White Sox on May 3, he has been downright awful and is now on the 15-day disabled list. When the best players don’t perform, or are hurt, the manager is forced to do the best he can with what he is given. However a 59-84 record may just be the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back for Gardenhire.
This year, with 3 mid-season changes already, and eight new managers at the beginning of the season, shouldn’t see too much activity. I do believe that with the Cubs’ search for a new general manager under way, Quade’s days are numbered in Chicago. I also believe that Black’s inability to get the always promising Padres to the next level will leave him without a job by November. Gardenhire has not proven to me that he can bring the Twins to the World Series, and that is what the job description entails. Has it ever happened where both Managers of the Year from their respective leagues gets fired the following year? It could happen if Black and Gardenhire are let go.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
MLB Reports 
You must be logged in to post a comment.