Blog Archives
ATR: Ask the Reports Answers Your Baseball Questions: MLB Non-Waiver Trade Deadline, Tommy Toledo, Ichiro to Yanks, Greinke, Billy Hamilton, Jeff Niemann, Pavano and Colby Lewis
Sunday July 29th, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Two days folks. That’s all the time that is left in the MLB Non-Waiver Trade Deadline. All baseball eyes will be on news wire as we expect many more trades to go down by the deadline. I have set the over/under of the number of moves to happen since the Giants got Marco Scutaro at 20. What is your pick?
Many of the big names that were rumored to move have been dealt with. Zack Greinke is an Angel. Scutaro a Giant. Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante are Tigers. Brett Myers and Francisco Liriano are members of the Whit Sox. Hanley Ramirez joined the Dodgers. But Cole Hamels stayed in Philadelphia, while Huston Street and Carlos Quentin remain in San Diego. Who are the next big names to move? Will Ryan Dempster finally go to L.A. or Atlanta? Will Matt Garza move despite not being healthy? Josh Beckett? Aramis Ramirez? Shane Victorino? Does Houston even have anyone left to trade now that even Chris Johnson has been traded? We will get the answers to all these questions over the next 2 days.
From our prospects file, a name to keep an eye on is Tommy Toledo. No- he is not a rock star or adult movie actor. Tommy is a pitcher in the Milwaukee Brewers system. He gets my vote for the best baseball name. Think about- what a name for a closer. Now pitching for the Brewers, #13…..Toooommmyy…..Tolleeeeedoooooo….. Yes, just a great ball name and yes, he can pitch too. Tommy tore up A-ball this year, pitching for Wisconsin of the Midwest League. 7-1 in 21 games, 1.95 ERA, 6 saves, 0.838 WHIP and 31/11 SO/BB. Standing 6’3″ and weighing close to 200 lbs, the 23-year old Tommy Toledo is a baseball prospect to follow. His Twitter handle is @TommyToledo13. Follow him, say hello…and make sure you say that the Reports sent ya!
For our Batting Stance Guy featured video of the week, we present Gar’s look at the New 2012 MLB Batting Stances. BSG at the start of the season took at look at some new stances that will have you laughing all the way to the batting cage:
Now let’s get to your top questions of the week: Read the rest of this entry
2012 Trade Deadline Update #6 7/29: Lirano to the White Sox, Johnson to D-Backs, and More
Sunday July 29th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: Here are some of the latest key baseball trades that have taken place over the last 24 hours:
Francisco Liriano to the White Sox
After losing out on Greinke, the White Sox needed to make a move. Their pitching needed an extra boost. Chris Sale hasn’t been himself his last two starts, giving up five earned runs in each, and Jake Peavy has been on and off lately, going 1-2 in his past three starts. Although Liriano has for the most part had a terrible year, holding a 3-10 record with an atrocious 5.31 ERA, he hasn’t been all that bad in his last few starts (excluding his last start against Chicago—2.2 innings, seven earned runs),striking out 10 and 15 in the two starts before facing Chicago. The White Sox are hoping that Liriano will continue his turnaround and help them reach the playoffs. This could be tough for the White Sox though; the Tigers seem to have the makings of a playoff team to not make the playoffs, and the AL West looks like it could produce three playoff teams as of now. But, with all this, Chicago does look promising after the acquisition of Kevin Youkilis earlier in the year. Adam Dunn has returned to form, hitting more home runs and striking out just as much. It looks like the White Sox will have a good shot to play in October. Read the rest of this entry
2012 Trade Deadline Update #4 7/27: Zack Greinke to the Angels – The A.L. West Just Got Wilder
Saturday July 28th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: Zack Greinke has just been traded to the Angels. It looks as if the A.L. West is turning into the A.L. East with the Rangers being the Yankees and the Angels becoming the Red Sox. Coming off two straight losses in the World Series, the Rangers signed regarded Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish in the offseason, who has worked out very well for them this year. The Angels got off to a rough start after signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, but turned their season around with the call-up of Mike Trout. With Colby Lewis needing Tommy John surgery, the Rangers are in need of another arm. Unfortunately for Rangers, the Angels just traded for one of the few quality pitchers left on the market. Zack Greinke is an ace and could turn out to be the difference maker in the A.L. West. Read the rest of this entry
2012 Trade Deadline Update #4 7/27: The Dodgers Need More Pitching- Evaluating the Options
Friday July 27th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: After acquiring shortstop/third baseman Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins, the Dodgers got exponentially better. With Hanley, the Dodgers gained an offensive force on the left side of the infield. With two solid pitchers, the Dodgers are good team, but a third would take them to the next level. There are several options out there:
Cliff Lee, Phillies
Signed through 2015, Lee will be a long-term option that could cost a premium. Fortunately for the Dodgers, money isn’t too much of a factor now with the new ownership. The left-handed Lee would fit well possibly as the number-three starter after Chad Billingsley to rotate left/right/left with Clayton Kershaw at the top of the rotation. The Phillies might trade Lee this year due to his out-of-character 1-6 record with a 3.95 ERA. Signing Cliff Lee could potentially put at risk the ability to re-sign Clayton Kershaw, since Kershaw’s two-year $19 million contract expires after next year. The Dodgers would be busy paying Lee the last three and a half years of his five-year $120 million contract, so Kershaw might have to settle for a little bit less (even with the new ownership) or sign with another team—the last thing the Dodgers would want. Acquiring Cliff Lee will be highly unlikely for this reason, plus the fact that the Phillies might want to hold onto their 2nd/3rd ace. Read the rest of this entry
The Interesting Case of Francisco Liriano: Twins Look to Move a Starter by the Trade Deadline
Bryan Sheehan (MLB Writer): There is no doubt that the Minnesota Twins are going to be sellers this year at the trade deadline. At 18 games under .500, they have the worst record in the American League, and with a team ERA of an even 5.00, they find themselves only ahead of the Colorado Rockies at the bottom in terms of pitching. According to Jayson Stark , the Twins are willing to move “just about anybody” on their roster, and all signs point to starter Francisco Liriano’s departure. The troubled starter ranks 93 out of 101 qualified pitchers in ERA (5.31) and is just one loss off a league worst 11. Liriano’s $5.5 million salary is fifth highest among Twins players, and it goes without saying that his performances are well below what he’s being paid. But does that mean he has no trade value? Read the rest of this entry
The Rangers Should Sacrifice Some of Their Prospects to Win This Year
Wednesday July 25th, 2012
Sam Evans: The Texas Rangers are currently 57-39, which gives them the second-best record in baseball behind only the New York Yankees. Texas isn’t just playing for this year, they also have enough prospects to acquire anyone they want at the trade deadline. Instead of waiting for young players to develop, the Rangers should recognize their chance to win it all this year, and trade away a couple of those players. If Texas could acquire a top of the rotation starter or a superstar outfielder, they should seriously consider trading some of their finest young prospects.
It will take a lot for the Texas Rangers to miss the playoffs this year. Despite playing in a division featuring an interesting Angels team, and a surging Oakland ballclub, Texas still has the highest playoff odds (99.8% chance) according to Baseball Prospectus. The Rangers could probably start Matt Kata instead of Adrian Beltre at third base for the rest of the season, and still make the playoffs. However, at some point, reaching the playoffs just isn’t enough. The Texas franchise wants to win the World Series this year, and in order to do that, they probably need to make a move at the deadline. Read the rest of this entry
2012 Trade Deadline Update #3 07/25: HanleyWood: Hanley to the Dodgers, Wandy, and More
Wednesday July 25th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: Some more trades came down, including one exciting blockbuster to report. One of the biggest names though that was supposed to be traded will now be staying put. Cole Hamels, the Phillies great young left-handed starter is expected to re-sign for 6-years and $144 million. But even with Hamels off the market, the trade winds are in full swing. Hold on to your hats…this is HUGE:
Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers
Another blockbuster deal. Announced late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, Hanley Ramirez is headed to the Dodgers with reliever Randy Choate for pitchers Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough. There were rumblings about a possible trade of Hanley, and it ended up happening. Hanley will start fresh on the west coast as the Dodgers are battling with the Giants for the NL West crown. The Dodgers started off hot with Matt Kemp leading the charge. Kemp went down with a hamstring injury and was re-injured in his first game back. After another DL stint, Kemp came back right after the All Star Break. Andre Either also had some time on the DL with an oblique injury, but he has since come back. Now, both are healthy and poised to help the Dodgers on a run down the stretch. With Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley heading the pitching staff, one of the Dodgers’ weakest positions was third base. Juan Uribe, the main third baseman for the Dodgers this year, is hitting a weak .190 with just two homers and 17 RBI. Dee Gordon, the primary shortstop and currently on the DL, is hitting .229. Needless to say, the Dodgers needed some help on the left side of the infield. Read the rest of this entry
Mike Olt is One of the Best Hitting Prospects in the Minors
Sunday July 22nd, 2012
Sam Evans: Rangers’ prospect Mike Olt is seemingly blocked in Texas. However, with his MLB-ready power bat, he’ll force Texas to either start him or trade him in the next year. Olt has tremendous raw power and a sweet swing that help make him one of the most advanced hitters in the minor leagues. It won’t be long before Mike Olt has established himself as a premier power hitter in the majors.
Mike Olt was born in New Haven, Connecticut, which isn’t exactly a baseball hotspot. At Branford High School, Olt hit .475 his senior year, and set a school record for single-season hits. Coming out of high school, Olt was undrafted so he took a scholarship to the University of Connecticut. In his first season with the Huskies, Olt struggled at third base, but was a monster at the plate. In fifty-four games, Olt hit .318 with a .577 slugging percentage. As a sophomore, Olt started to battle some injuries, and as a result, he came back to down to earth a little. He continued to struggle with his defense at third base. In his junior season at UCONN, Olt hit .318 with a .659 slugging percentage, and became the UConn career home run leader. Olt was drafted by the Rangers with the 49th overall pick in the 2010 MLB Amateur draft. Read the rest of this entry
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 2012 World Series contenders?
Thursday July 19th, 2012
John Burns: The 2012 season for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim looks like it might be getting saved by a 20 year-old named Mike Trout. The L.A. Angels had a record of 6-14 before they called Trout up from Triple-A, and has a 44-27 record since the call up of Trout. Mike Trout leads the A.L. and is 3rd in baseball with a .353 batting average and is tied with Dee Gordon for the MLB lead in stolen bases with 30. Trout is almost a lock for the A.L. Rookie of the Year. But if he keeps this up and leads L.A. to the playoffs, he could be the A.L. MVP. Read the rest of this entry
The Return of Carl Crawford: What to Expect From This Battered Superstar?
Thursday July 19th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: Carl Crawford undoubtedly has the potential to bring some extra oomph to the already powerful Red Sox lineup with his long-awaited return from the disabled list. Hopefully this Carl Crawford will be the guy the Red Sox hoped he would be when he signed with them. In his last year with Tampa Bay, he hit .307 with 19 homers and 90 RBIs, along with 47 stolen bases. Crawford is a .293 hitter over his career that started in 2002. This is what the Red Sox were hoping to get when they signed him in December of 2010 for a 7-year $142 million contract. So far, this contract has been a disaster. Last year, in his first year of the contract, Crawford hit a paltry .255—38 points less than his career average. Also, Crawford only played 130 games—which was rare for him, as he’s only played less than 140 games one other time (not including his rookie season).
So, what would happen if Crawford was back to his old self? With the return of Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox could easily shoot up to become one of the best offenses in the league. Pedroia is slated to return today, so a lineup including Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, and David Ortiz is most likely going to happen once Ortiz returns from the DL. Ortiz was placed on the DL with an Achilles injury after scoring on a home run. Once Ortiz is healthy, the Red Sox should be all set up for a big comeback down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry
Should the Diamondbacks be Buyers or Sellers at the MLB Trade Deadline?
Thursday July 19th, 2012
Bryan Sheehan (MLB Writer): The Diamondbacks could be in a worse situation. Just four games under .500 and sitting third within the NL West, they’re in the middle of the road statistically for both hitting and pitching despite injuries on both sides of the ball. Both Justin Upton and Miguel Montero have gone through slumps but are still batting around .270 with potential to contribute offensively, and second baseman Aaron Hill is having a great season so far, hitting .301 with the projection of 73 RBIs if he continues on this pace. Outfielder Jason Kubel is having a great year at the plate and defensively, as he leads the MLB in outfield assists. Rookie pitcher Wade Miley has been a wonderful surprise this year, leading all rookie starters with a 3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10 wins. Keep in mind this is the team that won the NL West last year and didn’t radically change over the offseason.
That being said, they’re far from in the driver’s seat. 7 games out of the wild card, as well as 7 games from the NL West lead, they have some issues to attend to. While top prospect and 2011 draft pick Trevor Bauer has the potential to be an MLB starter, at 21 he’s a bit underdeveloped. In four starts, Bauer had a 6.06 ERA with a 1-2 record, rough enough to buy him a bus ticket back to Triple-A Reno. With ace Daniel Hudson out for the season because of Tommy John surgery, the D-Backs currently only have four starting pitchers. With the deadline fast approaching, Arizona has a tough choice: trade away prospects and make a run for the playoffs, or sell off their big names in return for a chance in 2013 (and beyond). Read the rest of this entry
The Pirates Trading For Shane Victorino Makes Sense
Thursday July 19th, 2012
Sam Evans: Over the last five years, Shane Victorino has been a consistent force in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup. Now, playing in his contract year on a Phillies squad out of contention, he has to start to wonder what the future looks like for him. Numerous teams have been seen scouting Victorino, but nobody needs Victorino as bad the Pirates do. Do the Pirates have what it takes to acquire Victorino? Keep reading to see what I think… Read the rest of this entry
MLB Trade Deadline: Fantasy Baseball Targets
Wednesday July 18th, 2012
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports):
The upcoming trade deadline has the potential to sway the course of a fantasy season, especially in AL and NL only leagues. While the big trades are just over a week away from formulating, now is the time to make decisions instead of trying to react after the deadline. As many sub-.500 teams will be looking to deal their end of the game bullpen options to contenders, these are the players to stash away immediately:
Greg Holland, since returning form an injury in early May, has a 1.75 ERA and 36 K’s in 25.2 innings. Remember, coming into the season, he was by and large considered the favorite end of the game option before struggling and dealing with injury. Now, the reality is that Broxton will likely be traded at the deadline. He is at peak value, with a 2.14 ER and 22 saves in 26 opportunities. However, with a 23/14 K:B ratio in 33.2 innings, he is clearly not as dominate as the 2009 version of Broxton and is due for some regression. The Royals will almost certainly deal Broxton to a contender, and as a result might have to assume setup duty behind another closer. Meanwhile, Holland is more than ready to take over the save opportunities for the final two months of the season. Read the rest of this entry
Bryan LaHair: The Future of the Cubs or Simply Another Trade Deadline Candidate?
Tuesday July 17th, 2012
John Burns: The 2012 season has been one to forget for the Chicago Cubs, as they currently stand in fifth place in the NL Central with a 36-52 record. Chicago has had some pleasant surprises this season so far even though the record doesn’t show it. The All-Star emergence of Bryan LaHair brought Cubs fans something to talk about in the first half. LaHair was never even in anyone’s Top 100 prospect list ever in his career. The 29-year-old was drafted in the 39th round of the 2002 Draft by the Seattle Mariners and has spent a majority of his baseball career in the minors. LaHair is having a solid 2012 campaign and earned himself a trip to Kansas City for the All-Star game. Even though LaHair has slowed down, I expect his name to be swirled around at the trade deadline. Numerous teams could be in on LaHair who is hitting .282, with 14 homers and 31 RBIs. Read the rest of this entry
Justin Morneau: Twins Trade Bait or Damaged Goods?
Thursday July 12th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: Over the past few years, Twins fans have been disappointed with Justin Morneau’s performance. He’s been plagued by a concussion he sustained in Toronto two years ago after sliding into the leg of Aaron Hill. Before the injury, Morneau was hitting .345 through 81 games, hit .274 in the year before that (2009), finished second in MVP voting in 2008 after hitting .300 with 23 home runs and 129 RBIs, and won the AL MVP award in 2006 after hitting .321 with 34 homers and 130 RBIs. The big question is: Can he return to his original form? Read the rest of this entry
Boston Red Sox: Who is on Their Radar? Jimenez to Indians and Trade Deadline Summary
Saturday July 30, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): With the deadline only a day away, I expect a flurry of moves in the next 24 hours, and the Boston Red Sox are sure to get involved. With injuries to Clay Buchholz and Daisuke Matsuzaka, combined with the inability of John Lackey to get outs, the BoSox have been in on every rumored starting pitcher being moved. Here’s a look at Boston’s targets, and who they would have to give up in order to consummate a deal.
The Japanese import could bring a good haul for the LA Dodgers, and it is believed that they are looking for a young catcher or a starting pitcher in return. I don`t believe the Red Sox would give up Anthony Ranaudo for him, but it is the Red Sox, and their system is fairly stacked. Kuroda isn`t a top line starter, but could fit in nicely behind Josh Beckett and Jon Lester right now. In his last 10 starts, Kuroda is 1-8 with a 2.66 ERA, giving up more than three runs in a start only once. He is on pace to break the 200 inning mark for the first time in his MLB career.
Prospects
I could see the Dodgers wanted a package that could involve Kyle Weiland, who has been at AAA, including a couple of underwhelming starts for the Red Sox. He has been dominant in AAA, and while his ceiling might not be very high, Weiland could be a piece used to obtain Kuroda.
Former top pick Andrew Miller could be involved as well, as he has shown flashes of the potential that the Tigers saw to draft him 6th overall in the 2006 draft.
Jason Vargas (SEA), Aaron Harang (SDP), Jeremy Guthrie (BAL), Erik Bedard (SEA)
Vargas is another pitcher who hasn’t had much luck this year, going 6-9 with a 4.09 ERA. He too is on pace to break the 200 inning plateau for the first time in his career. He gives up a lot of fly balls and home runs, so he might not be the best fit for Fenway Park.
Harang has made the most of his move to spacious Petco Park. In the pitcher’s haven, his ERA is 2.92, as opposed to 4.31 on road games. Harang in Boston might not be a good fit due to his propensity to give up the long ball, but, whether it is due to the park or not, he has only given up 9 homeruns so far this year.
Playing the last five years in Baltimore will never help your win-loss record, but Guthrie has been a reliable arm for the Orioles over that time. His career ERA of 4.16 while mostly pitching in the AL East proves that he could be a capable pitcher for the Red Sox. Although he is 5-14, he has pitched fairly well this year, and could be great addition to the back-end of the Red Sox rotation.
Bedard’s once promising career has been derailed by injury after injury. He has always possessed tremendous stuff, but hasn’t been able to stay healthy. In his last ten starts, he has thrown 58 2/3 innings, striking out 64. Bedard has never amassed 200 innings, and his career high is 196, in 2006.
All of these pitchers are available and the Red Sox are in talks with each of the respective teams. Many of the prospects mentioned in this article will be in play, as well as Bryce Brentz, a powerful outfielder in high-A. He needs to cut down on strikeouts but he is a solid right fielder for the future.
The Cubs` outfielder could bring a spark of energy to the club. J.D. Drew is on the DL, again, so they do need an outfielder if they want to upgrade over Josh Reddick or Darnell McDonald. Johnson plays great defense and is hitting the ball pretty well this year, so he could slot into right field well at Fenway.
23-year-old catcher Ryan Lavarnway could be involved in a deal. He is a young catcher that isn`t too far away from the big leagues. Lavarnway has a lot of power as shown by his 27 home runs already this year. He is known as a good game caller and a smart catcher.
Ubaldo Jimenez has tremendous upside and is signed to a team-friendly contract through 2014. The Colorado Rockies are asking for a prospect haul that most teams can’t even match. At this point, only the Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays, together with the Red Sox are involved in talks with the Rockies. Although just 6-9 this year with a 4.20 ERA, he has made some great strides in the last couple of months. In his last 10 starts, he is 5-4 with 3.47 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 62 1/3 innings. Jimenez has lowered his ERA almost a full run during that time. Although some teams worry about his delivery, the big righty has been durable, throwing at least 198 innings in the last three years, and is on pace to break that mark again this year.
Prospects
Anthony Ranaudo, a supplemental 1st round pick in 2010 started this season in A-ball, but could quickly shoot up the system in Colorado if moved. He possesses three above average pitcher and has front of the rotation stuff. He has good control and has great makeup and poise.
Will Middlebrooks is a prototypical third basemen with a good glove. He hits for average, and for power, evidenced by his 17 home runs so far this season. He also has 7 stolen bases. He possesses a good baseball IQ and he should have a long career in the big leagues.
Lars Anderson was once considered the top bat in the Red Sox system, and with Adrian Gonzalez in the mix, there doesn`t seem to be a spot for Anderson. He has good vision at the plate, sees a lot of pitches, and has gap power. As he continues to fill out, he will get stronger. I expect 20 home runs and 30 doubles a year out of Anderson when he finally does make it to the Show.
I think that the Red Sox win the Ubaldo Jimenez sweepstakes, sending uber-prospects Ranaudo, Middlebrooks, Anderson and maybe one or two players to be named later. This gives the Red Sox a fearsome top three starters in Beckett, Lester and Jimenez. If Buchholz comes back healthy, they have an incredible rotation for years to come. Reed Johnson is also a great fit for the team, and I see them making a move for him.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. Please feel free to leave comments and to welcome Rob aboard. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Editor’s Notes and Trade Deadline Summary:
A great article by our intern Rob Bland. As the trade deadline has shown already, as much as we think we can predict what will happen- surprises will always occur. Today was the last day before the non-waiver trade deadline, Sunday July 31st. Here is a rundown of all the trades that took place today in Major League Baseball:
Rich Harden (A’s) for Lars Anderson and Player to be Named Later (Red Sox): Yet to be announced. This deal has not yet been finalized and may fall through. Likely Billy Beane is pushing strong for this one. Boston gets Harden, a talented but very injury prone pitcher that cannot be counted on. Oakland would get a top young hitting prospect in Anderson and a PTBNL. Oakland wins if this one does happen, stay tuned.
Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride (Indians): What a difference a year makes. The Indians are going for it and have beefed up their rotation with the addition of Jimenez. When on his game, Ubaldo is one of the best in baseball. Further, Ubaldo continues to be under team control, so the Indians don’t simply acquire a summer rental here. The keys to this deal for the Rockies are Pomeranz and White. Considered to be the Indians two best pitching prospects, the Rockies add to their farm while losing their ace. While Pomeranz is considered highly in baseball circles, I would have expected to see the Rockies get more major league ready talent. Considering that they were supposed to get Jesus Montero and Ivan Nova from the Yankees or Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and/or Homer Bailey from the Reds, I give the Indians the edge on this deal. Ace pitchers do not grow on trees and the Indians got one without giving up any of their major league talent or some of their other finer prospects, including Nick Weglarz. Competing with the big boys, the Indians get the prize of the trade deadline and likely a division title as well.
Derek Lee (Orioles) for Aaron Baker (Pirates): The Pirates are going for it and while Lee is an aging first baseman, he is an upgrade offensively over incumbent Lyle Overbay. Baker is a Class A first baseman that is not considered a top prospect. This trade is a draw, as the Pirates beef up for their playoff run and the Orioles auction off an impending free agent to stock their system.
Orlando Cabrera (Indians) for Thomas Neal (Giants): This deal came out of left field, as the Indians are still contending and were expected to hold onto Cabrera. With many young infielders on their roster, the Indians were prepared to sacrifice their utility man for one of the Giants higher rated prospect bats. Speaking to Neal on several occasions, he is one of the nicer young men you will ever want to meet in the game. Considered a great tools player, both offensively and defensively, the Indians have added another piece to their offensive puzzle while sacrificing a veteran that was expandable. The Giants, with injury and offensive woes, took a chance on Cabrera, a good luck charm for each of his respective teams in the postseason. While Neal was a big price to pay, the Giants are in win-now mode. A draw, as both teams will away happy from this exchange.
Koji Uehara (Orioles) for Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis (Rangers): This is a good old-fashioned baseball trade. The Rangers pick up a veteran reliever, who is enjoying his finest campaign in the big leagues and could be a setup man or closer. The Orioles continue to stockpile prospects and add a starter and first baseman to their mix. Davis has one of the most explosive bats in the game when he gets hot and the Orioles could have their cleanup hitter for the next 5-7 years. Hunter should be a good #3 or #4 starter for the team. A draw as both teams achieve their respective goals in this deal.
Jason Marquis (Nationals) for Zach Walters (Diamondbacks): I am a fan of what the Diamondbacks are doing in Arizona, but this trade doesn’t work for me. Marquis will pitch in Arizona, but I don’t see him being the effective starter the team needs to fight the Giants for a playoff berth. Walters is a prospect shortstop who could have been Stephen Drew‘s replacement one day when he left the team. Walters has a good offensive bat and was not worth the price of Marquis. Advantage Washington for adding another prospect to its growing farm while dumping a veteran pitcher that had no place on their roster.
Mike Aviles (Royals) for Yamaico Navarro and Kendal Volz (Red Sox): The Red Sox get some sort of infield insurance, which was unnecessary in my estimation with both Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie on the roster. If Lowrie is out beyond early August as projected, then this deal makes sense. Otherwise, to give up two decent prospects for a player who has struggled this season and is unlikely to hit much in Boston does not equate for me. Advantage Royals for dumping a player who did not fit on the team and continuing to stock their system.
Jerry Hairston Jr. (Nationals) for Erik Komatsu (Brewers): The Brewers get depth for their playoff run and the Nationals get a marginal prospect back. A draw.
Doug Fister and David Pauley (Mariners) for Francisco Martinez, Casper Wells, Charlie Furbush and a PTBNL (Tigers): For a Tigers team that was considered early in the day to be in the hunt for Ubaldo Jimenez, this one is a bit of a let down. Fister will be a #4 or #5 starter for the Tigers, good but not great. Pauley was having an incredible season for the Mariners in their pen and should do well in Comerica. Wells will likely slot immediately into the Mariners outfield and the rest of the players are prospects to their stock their farm. While I’m not excited about what Detroit received, I am equally not impressed by what they gave up. Call this one a draw. Middle of the road players for players at this point.
Denard Span (Twins) for Drew Storen and ? (Nationals): Yet to be announced. This one is a real head scratcher for me. I consider Span a good, but not great outfielder. This trade is not completed although many outlets are reporting that this deal will get done. The Nationals would give up their young closer if this deal happens and considerably weaken their bullpen. Span, while playing a strong centerfield is not the offensive bat the Nationals are looking for. After taking the Twins to the cleaners a year ago in trading Matt Capps for Wilson Ramos, this trade would be payback for the Twins. If Storen is part of this deal, advantage Twins. If the Nationals hang on to their closer, consider it a draw.
Rafael Furcal and cash (Dodgers) for an unknown player (Cardinals): Yet to be announced. With Dee Gordon in the minors and money woes being an issue, this trade for the Dodgers is about getting younger and saving money in the process. The Cardinals are pushing for a playoff spot and if healthy, Furcal should give the team a spark offensively. Personally, I would not trust Furcal based on his injury history. It also remains to be seen which player the Cardinals get back. But overall, without all the specifics, if the Dodgers can unload Furcal and have the Cardinals pick up most of his contract, I will label this trade a Dodgers win.
Ryan Ludwick (Padres) for an unknown player (Indians): Yet to be announced. The Indians are looking to make a strong playoff run and former Indian Luckwick would fit well in their offense this year. It remains to be seen what the Indians have to give up, but for a player in as strong demand as Ludwick, as long as it is not too much, give the edge to the Indians.
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Jair Jurrjens: Braves Ace of the Future or Trade Candidate?
Wednesday July 20, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): Now that the trade deadline is fast approaching, teams in contention are scrambling to find the pieces they desperately need to reach the playoffs. Teams that are out of contention are scouring other teams’ minor league affiliates in search of suitable trade partners. One man who is terribly busy fielding on calls on one of his biggest talents is the GM of the Atlanta Braves, Frank Wren. Opposing GMs have coveted his ace pitcher, Jair Jurrjens over the past few years. But now that Jurrjens has developed into a solid dependable pitcher who has exceeded his potential, Wren’s phone will be ringing right up until the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline.
Why Atlanta should hold on to their ace
Jair Jurrjens is young and controllable with an inexpensive contract. He is an inning eater, and a dependable arm that will give 6+ innings per game. Jurrjens is in his fourth full season, with the key variable that many people forget is that he is only 25 years old. At the halfway mark of this season, Jurrjens has a 12-3 record with a sparkling 2.26 ERA. Jair also induces a ton of ground balls, with a GB% of 48.2. When a guy can throw strikes consistently, it makes it much easier to be successful. Three walks per nine innings is a pretty good career mark, and he has seemingly improved almost every year, as Jurrjens currently sits at a 2.10 BB/9 for 2011. A young, controllable ace that is continually improving might be something that the Braves want to hold onto. Further, the Braves should even consider giving a long-term extension to Jurrjens given what he means to the ballclub.
Why Atlanta should trade Jurrjens
Why would a contending team trade their ace, you might ask? Well, a guy like Jurrjens might be overachieving for a few reasons. First of all, the velocity on his fastball has dipped every season since his rookie campaign. His average fastball was once 93 mph, whereas it sits at 89 now. Now this could mean a couple of things, such as he has learned how to pitch and doesn’t need the velocity. However, his extra reliance on his change-up and slider; each of them up in usage about 3% over previous years, tells me that he knows his fastball isn’t quite as effective. Jurrjens doesn’t strike many guys out, and there is almost no way that he can maintain a 4.1% homerun per fly ball rate. His xFIP is exactly a run and a half higher than his ERA at 3.76, so a measure of his performance has been attributed to luck. Numbers can be sometimes be deceiving and in Jurrjens case, he might not be as good as his statistics appear to show. Sometimes its good to maximize a return when the market is at its peak and Jurjjens may very well be sitting at the top of his ceiling of potential. Otherwise, if Jurrjens does regress, he value will never be higher than it is at the moment.
Which teams could trade for Jurrjens
If the Detroit Tigers are willing to give up a ton of prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez, I believe they would do the same for Jurrjens. Same goes with the Red Sox and Yankees. Detroit has at least kicked the tires on many starting pitchers, including Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, and Jeremy Guthrie. I see Jurrjens as an upgrade over those pitchers, so it would take a decent package to steal him away. The Rockies covet four top prospects for Jimenez, so I don’t see why the Braves wouldn’t try to get at least three top prospects for Jurrjens. He may not have the electric stuff that Ubaldo has, but he certainly has a track record of success.
Another fit to trade for Jurrjens that may fly under the radar could be the Indians. Mitch Talbot and Fausto Carmona have
underperformed, and they desperately need an upgrade if they are to contend. This could cause a bidding war for Jurrjens. I can see righty Alex White, lefty Drew Pomeranz and outfielder Nick Weglarz being involved in such a deal. Prospects Jacob Turner (RHP), Andy Oliver (LHP) and Nick Castellanos (3B) may be included in a potential deal with Detroit.
In the NL, if the St. Louis Cardinals decide to make a push in the wide open Central Division, they may be looking at starting pitching help. Kyle McLellan and Jake Westbrook have both struggled, so it could be a possibility they get in the mix. Third baseman Zack Cox and starting pitcher Shelby Miller are possible candidates to be moved in such a scenario.
Verdict
Atlanta doesn’t appear to be actively shopping Jurrjens, but it would be in their best interest to at least gauge the interest of other teams. The Braves could get a return for Jurrjens that would be impossible to refuse. With some of the prospects named, the Braves could still contend, and restock their system for years to come. Until then, we expect Jurrjens to remain a Brave unless Frank Wren gets blown away a trade proposal. With the active trade winds blowing this year and numerous contending teams desperate for starting pitching help, anything is possible.
Editor’s Note: Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. Rob was selected from the many candidates who applied to write for MLB reports. Please feel free to leave comments and to welcome Rob aboard. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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