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On The Trading Block In The NL East

The Phillies have not had a winning season since 2011 after putting forth a decade straight of them. A promising second half to the season - couple with full seasons by Aaron Nola and Maikel Franco could have them inch closer back to achieving that mark in the next few years.

The Phillies have not had a winning season since 2011 after putting forth a decade straight of them. A promising second half to the season – couple with full seasons by Aaron Nola and Maikel Franco could have them inch closer back to achieving that mark in the next few years.

Jordan Gluck (Part Owner/Featured Writer): 

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On the Trading Block NL East

Atlanta Braves: The Braves have quite a few players that they can trade and under John Hart you don’t know what direction they will go in this offseason.

Can they be in a position to compete moving into the new Sun Trust Stadium next year or is it a longer term rebuild

I think this team really isn’t 2 bad and could compete for a wild card this season with the addition of a 3B (Rio Ruiz?) and consistent starting pitching.

However it is clear their sights are not set on this season but on the future as indicated by their trade of Andrelton Simmons.

The Mets made it to the World Series in 2015 after a subpar start heading into the Trade Deadline. With a ton of pitching and some decent positional players still on the roster, they could set themselves up for a lengthy run in the NL East. Especially if they can coordinate a couple of trades (Pitching for hitters).

The Mets made it to the World Series in 2015 after a subpar start heading into the Trade Deadline. With a ton of pitching and some decent positional players still on the roster, they could set themselves up for a lengthy run in the NL East. Especially if they can coordinate a couple of trades (Pitching for hitters).

Probability they’re traded indicated in percentage

Bats:

Nick Markakis: 10%. He is due about 11M a season from here on out for the next 3 years and has consistently proven to be an above average RF.

A solid bat with diminishing pop leads to worrisome evaluation as speed could continue to diminish with age. I see a midseason trade more likely if at all.

Erick Aybar: 35%. They acquired Aybar in the Simmons trade and he should serve as a nice stopgap until Albies gets to the show.

Aybar could get moved later in the offseason if a contender badly needs a SS but could also get traded midseason.

I have some doubts that he will get a QO next offseason unless he has a real breakout campaign. Possible suitors could be the Minnesota Twins, Chicago White Sox or the New York Mets.

Freddie Freeman 5%. There have been very recent swirling rumors about Freddie but I can tell you barring a moon offer he will be staying.

If there is a team that could get him it could be the Astros or the Yankees as they have the need and the ammo to pull off a trade. It would take a top 20 prospect a top 75 prospect a top 125 prospect and more. Not Happening!

Arms:

Jason Grilli 45%. He is coming off a ruptured achilies but was having a nice season before that. With so many teams in need of back end bullpen help Grilli could be seen as an attractive piece who shouldn’t cost an arm and a leg to acquire.

If he is not traded this offseason then midseason is very likely. The return would likely be a fringe top 250 prospect.

Mike Minor 15%. After a recent setback in his quest to return from Labrum Surgery the Braves are considering non tendering him. I haven’t seen the medicals so I don’t know how bad the recovery is going but he has had some successful seasons and will garner interest.

A team in transition such as the Phillies would be wise to take a shot on an arm that could payoff big time.

Top Prospects:

Mallex Smith 20%. The Braves will have Mallex about ready at some point this season but center field is filled by Cameron Maybin creating a logjam. Prospect for Prospect trades are relatively uncommon but this could be a scenario where it could work for a team seeking center field depth in its organization.


Miami Marlins: The Fish had a disastrous season tinkering with last place for most of it. Much of last years problems were due to injuries to key players such as Giancarlo Stanton, Henderson Alvarez, Jose Fernandez and Jarred Cosart.

They also had DL stints for Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Martin Prado with Marcel Ozuna in the minors for a while.

As for on field performance Steve Cishek blew a multitude of games early while Dee Gordon really broke out. I believe its more likely they add to the core of this team than subtract and that will be done to the starting pitching getting 2 starters.

Bats:

Martin Prado 40%. Prado is a free agent after this season and I have doubts he will be brought back. The Fish might see it wise to spend money in other areas and have Derek Dietrich come play 3B.

Prado would be attractive for other teams as he can play a multitude of positions 2B, 3B and if needed SS while maintaining an above average bat.

Prado could be a fit for the Yankees, Padres and White Sox among others. He could be used in part of a package for a SP (Andrew Cashner?)

Marcell Ozuna 30%. Ozuna and his agent Scott Boras were extremely upset when he was sent down despite going on a 1-36 stretch. I find it unlikely that the Fish move Ozuna since they would need to replace him with another outfielder.

Ozuna is better than he played last season – and I would be quite surprised to see the Marlins sell low. There have been talks linking Ozuna to the Cleveland Indians for a pitcher such as Trevor Bauer or Danny Salazar.

Justin Bour 10%. The Fish would only trade Bour if they signed another 1B to replace him. Bour had an incredible power surge late in the season to finish with 23 HRs despite being about 200 at bats short of what normally constitutes a full regular season.

He was a rookie last season and was never a top prospect so he’s a bit of a gamble but he is cheap.

Derek Dietrich 30%. I think if Prado stays then Dietrich could go as some clubs see him as an everyday player. I think his bat certainly merits attention and the power he can generate but his defense needs work all around at 2B, 3B and the OF.

I think he would fit great in the American League where he can be moved around and play DH. If traded a starting pitcher with control would be the goal.

Arms:

Jose Fernandez 5%. Agent Scott Boras and Marlins President David Samson recently had a back and fourth exchange which got big time press.

I very much doubt the Fish move Fernandez as they see him as an integral part of the Marlins future and have tried to lock him up multiple times.

A return for Fernandez would have to be HUGE and most likely include big names as the public backlash would be severe on the organization.

A trade example: (Rockies get Jose Fernandez Fish get Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan McMahon, Raimel Tapia and Eddie Butler),

Prospects: Could all be used in attempt to get SP
Avery Romero 10%
Justin Nicolino 15%
Tyler Kolek 5%


New York Mets: After making the World Series this past year it is difficult to imagine hat they would undergo massive changes especially since they can replace Cespedes with Michael Conforto and Bartolo Colon with the SP depth they have including Zack Wheeler coming back.

Their middle infield is clearly their biggest area of need and they could try to dangle some prospects to make a move.

They also could try to rebuild their minor league pitching prospect depth which has been ravaged due to recent graduations.

Bats:

Dilson Herrera 15%. Originally acquired from the Pirates in the Marlon Byrd trade a couple years ago he is a 21 year old competing for the starting 2B job.

While he does have talent and potential the Mets could use a more reliable presence as they try to win the division again. Neil Walker comes to mind as a 2B who might be available. Wilson could be part of the package.

Arms:

Matt Harvey 20%. After a fight with agent Scott Boras Harvey could be on the block but the return would have to be gargantuan and most likely include another front of the line pitcher. The Dodgers who could include prospect Julio Urias could be a potential fit.

Zack Wheeler 10%, He was nearly flipped at the deadline to Cincinnati but is less likely to be traded now. I only see him being moved for a big piece most likely a middle infield bat.

Top Prospects:

Amed Rosario 15% A young but highly raved about SS prospect who could be packaged in a trade for a SS who could help the 2016 team.

Brandon Nimmo 20% He could be used as a chip and is more valuable to some teams since he is close to major league ready.


Philadelphia Phillies: Perhaps the most difficult job in all of baseball belongs to Matt Klentack right now but on the bright side there is no pressure to win this season.

The situation is intriguing with the Phillies in that they could and have been a luxury tax team but they have a currently projected 85M payroll down from 150M last season.

They could obviously afford more but it doesn’t make much sense right now unless it helps them in the future which could make them a salary dump destination as long as they get prospects/upside in return.

Example Phillies take on bad short term money and a prospect (Orioles get nothing “salary relief” while Phillies get Ubaldo Jimenez and Hunter Harvey) this helps the Orioles free up their budget and try to fix their many holes while the Phillies get a potential trade chip down the line and a quality pitching prospect.

Save Aaron Nola Maikel Franco and J.P. Crawford.  Anyone on this team can be had.

Bats:

Ryan Howard 55%. The Phillies would have to eat pretty much the whole contract but Howard has some value in that power from the left side. Assuming a team like the Yankees pay nothing Howard can really enjoy that short right field porch.

Odubel Herrera 10% He is still young but was a rule 5 pick under the previous regime. He had a very underrated 2015 and could potentially be sold high.

Carlos Ruiz 10% I see him more as a midseason trade chip for a team desperately needing help behind the plate.

Arms:

Ken Giles 75%. A closer with an electric fastball under team control until 2021. The Phillies have said that it would take 2 top prospects to pry him from the Phillies which would be slightly over value.

In my view his value is at an all time high and I would 100% trade him this offseason especially with the need around the league for back end bullpen help.

Matt Harrison 3%. Likely midseason trade chip

Jeremy Hellickson 3%. Likely midseason trade chip
Top Prospects:

Andrew Knapp 5%. With the addition of Jorge “The Legend” Alfaro at the deadline they could try to use him in a prospect for prospect trade.


Washington Nationals: After a disappointing 2015 season the pressure will be immense on GM Mike Rizzo as a failed playoff appearance will most likely cost him his job.  It is the last year for the team with Stephen Strasburg under team control as well.

Bats:

Michael Taylor 10%. There are a few Center Field options out there and it could be wise to sign one of those guys and use Taylor as a trade chip to teams that want a more cost conscious option.

Arms:

Stephen Strasburg 25%. Strasburg is a free agent after this season and will be a lofty raise in arbitration. With Boras as his agent i would categorize Strasburg as very doubtful to resign which could make him a trade chip.

The Nationals are probably doubtful to trade him but they could restock their farm system and spend their cash on one of the many higher end pitchers on the market such as Johnny Cueto or Zack Greinke.

Jonathan Papelbon 30% Papelbon had a highly publicized blowout with Bryce Harper and could be moved but his price tag may diminish the return even on a one year deal. He has also had clubhouse problems which could cross some teams off the list.

Top Prospects:

A.J. Cole 10% If they refuse to trade Lucas Giolito Cole could be a name in a trade package to upgrade the major league roster.

The Expos/Nats franchise has never been to the World Series, and the only other team to hold that distinction are The city of Washington has seen a World Series before, but not since 1933, when the Joe Cronin led Senators lost to the New York Giants in 5 games.

The Expos/Nats franchise has never been to the World Series, and the only other team to hold that distinction are the Seattle Mariners.  The city of Washington has seen a World Series before, but not since 1933, when the Joe Cronin led Senators lost to the New York Giants in 5 games.  The last time they won the World Series was the 1925 Walter Johnson squad.  Maybe 2015 could be the year?

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***

A Big thanks goes out to our ‘Part-Owner/featured writer’ Jordan Gluck for preparing today’s feature post. 

Jordan Gluck (Right)

Jordan Gluck (Right)

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About jgluck777

Aspiring President of Baseball Operations for a MLB Franchise/ Venture Capitalist

Posted on November 20, 2015, in Free Agency, MLB Teams: Articles and Analysis, MLB Trades and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

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