Clayton Kershaw gets the nod in Sydney, Australia for the MLB opener. He may also pitch the MLB North American Opener next Sunday in San Diego, before potentially throwing 5 days later for the Dodgers Season Opener. This could mean he Starts 3 of the clubs 6 games. If Greinke follows him in SD, that could mean 5 Starts for these guys in the teams first 8 games, with potentially Ryu also throwing 2 starts in.  For those people who don’t think this season starter in Australia could benefit the Dodgers, think again.  They could lead the NL West for every day of the 2014 season, and could net 3 wins before anyone in the NL West or MLB in total has their 1st victory.

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Chuck Booth gave me this mission to kick of the year writing this article.  We both come from a long history of predicting outcomes of games.

Some years we have done well, and some years have not been okay.

It has been researched and studied that Doubleheaders have a high probability of seeing a split for the 2 games.

You throw in the neutral site factor of this series, and all home field advantage is thrown out the window.

Chuck nailed the prediction of what they would put the game odds for the 2 games – based on the Starting Pitchers.

Wade Miley was named as the Opening Day Starter when it was learned that Patrick Corbin would be out for the year with Tommy John Surgery. Miley faced Kershaw 2 times last year, beating him in the 1st game, and the team won the 2nd games as well, with both Starters receiving no-decisions.

Game #1:  4 AM EST Saturday at Sydney Cricket Ground

Starters

Clayton Kershaw -165 (Dodgers) vs Wade Miley (D’Backs) +150.

Game #2:  10 PM EST Saturday at Sydney Cricket Ground

Starters

Hyun-jin Ryu -115 (Dodgers) vs Trevor Cahill (D’Backs) +105.

You may think this is crazy – but bet Arizona in game #1 with that odd.

Lets go over some quick reasons why.

Guaranteed Kershaw doesn’t go as long as he normally would.

With 30 odd players for both teams, many substitutions will be used.

The value of -165 is not great.

Whomever wins Game #1, will likely not win Game #2. 

So if you win Kershaw in Game #1 and lose Game #2, you will lose money if you lose Game #2 on the Dodgers and Ryu. (provided you bet the same amount for both games.)

The play here is to bet Miley and the D’Backs to win game #1.  Say $20 bet (pays $50, of which $30 is profit).

If you win the 1st game, quit.  That is a profit.

If you lose the 1st wager, which is likely still considering the Pitcher you are facing, bet Cahill in Game #2.  Up the stake to $30.

This bet pays $61.50 in return, which would net you a $31.5 profit for the game, and an overall weekend profit of $11.5 still – after $20 for Game #1 was already lost.

If you lose two games in a row to the Dodgers, you are out $50.  But that is why we call it gambling.  Take the split.

Of course, should you just bet $20 on Kershaw to win Game #1, you win $32.12 ($12.12 profit.) If you choose this option, again don’t wager on Game #2, it is too risky on a 2 game series.

Matt Kemp and Carl Crawford are not with the LA team.  Yasiel Puig has had a brutal Spring Straining and is overweight. (.122/.136/.195

Adrian Gonzalez is not listed to play either with a sore back.  Maybe it was the 18 hour flight.

Kershaw is 0  – 3, with a 9.20 ERA in 4 Game Starts so far this Spring.  While I don’t take much stock in that stat, he may be working things out.

If you look at the new $215 MIL man numbers, April are among his worst totals (even though they are still good at 8 – 8, with a 3.14 ERA. – averaging just over 6 IP.

If this series were played in LA or Arizona, I would never condone betting against this reigning NL Cy Young.  I just like the value for the D’Backs.

Cahill versus Ryu in Game #2 is a very close matchup.  With 18 hours between games in a foreign country, I am leaning on the D’Backs youth to reel in the 2nd game more if they lose the 1st contest.

Arizona also knows if they are swept in the 2 game set, LA may take a commanding lead on the Division opening up next week in North America versus the Padres next.

It is more paramount for Arizona to at least gain a split, rather than the Dodgers.

Don’t get us wrong either.  Myself, Chuck Booth and 2 and A Hook Podcast Host James Acevedo have all taken the Dodgers to win the World Series this year.  We like LA’s chances on the whole campaign.

In the end, this is just an idea cooked up by our Owner at MLB reports.

Pass it on and share it if you like it.  I know he put some cabbage on the 1st game already.

The Dodgers open up the year against the DBacks in the MLB Opening Series. For those hardcore home fans, the games start at 1 AM PST and 7 PM PST on Saturday.This series does scream a split between the feel of a Doubleheader, and the weirdness of the neutral site and country.  As such, shouldn’t be wagered on like a typical series would.  There is no home park advantage – and the field of competitiveness has been leveled some, even though the Dodgers are favored to win the 2014 World Series

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com ***

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If you want to listen to the 2014 MLB Preview Show for all predictions, we have it below.

Here is the 2 And A Hook Audio Podcast Presentation Play Button Below (Running time about 2 hours, Chuck Booth enters 15 Minutes in, ARI/LAD opening series 15 minute mark.  Predictions 16 minute – 112 minute mark.)

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