Blog Archives
Ichiro Suzuki: What Happened in 2011 to the Mariners Superstar and Looking to 2013
Friday September 16, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern – MLB reports): When Ichiro Suzuki came into the league in 2001, people did not know what to expect from him. He exceeded any and all expectations, becoming the second MLB player all-time to win rookie of the year and MVP in the same season. The next eight years seemed easy for Ichiro; the highlight moment coming when he set the all-time hits record in a single season record in 2004 with 262. Not to mention, he became the first player in MLB history to have 200 hits in ten straight years.
Going into 2011, few analysts considered Ichiro’s production tailing off drastically. Sure, he was 37 years old, but he might be in better shape than any other player in the majors. In April of this year, Ichiro batted .328 and stole ten bases. However, in May and June he batted .210 and .282 respectively. This season has turned out to be Ichiro’s worst year in the majors by a large margin. From 2001 to 2010, he never hit below .303. In 2011, he’s hitting .272 with 5 HR and 72 RBI.
Ichiro’s production relies on his ability to get on base and create havoc on the base paths. Last year Ichiro had 53 infield hits, while this year he only has 32. Even though Ichiro’s 32 infield hits currently leads the majors, it is still the lowest total Ichiro has ever had in his career. It is not like these are cheap hits either, as former Detroit Third Basemen Brandon Inge commented to the New York Times on August 22,2009, “I wish you could put a camera at third base to see how he hits the ball and see the way it deceives you. You can call some guys’ infield hits cheap, but not his. He has an amazing technique.”
One of the arguments that has been set out in attempting to explain Ichiro’s decline this year has been that he is getting slower and slower. I disagree with this statement. He is on pace to steal 43 bases, which is right around his career average. In the field, Ichiro may have gotten a tad slower, but I think that is due to his taking bad angles to the ball, rather than a decline in his abilities. However, while not attempting to insult Ichiro as a player, it is apparent though that his intensity is a definitely a lot lower this year. This leads to the following conclusion in my opinion; Ichiro Suzuki is a human being. He is playing for a Mariners team that has not reached the playoffs since 2001. He has consistently been playing about 150 games a year, not including spring training. It seems like no matter how good of a season Ichiro has, the players and team around him are disappointing. After all, we are talking about the Mariners. A player can only take so much losing at a certain point, even the great Ichiro.
One factor explaining Ichiro’s off-year is bad luck. This is his first year with a BABIP under .300 (Ichiro’s career average is .352), and according
to Baseball Info Solutions, he has lost more hits than any other big leaguer on “good fielding plays.” No matter how you read the stats, the bottom line is that Ichiro has had a pretty bad year by his standards. He has played below-average defense, and at times looked lazy in the field. His On-Base-Percentage is at a career low .312, and he would need an incredible 30 hits in his last 13 games to reach 200 again. To make everything worse, Ichiro turns 38 in October.
Next year, will be interesting one for Ichiro Suzuki. It is his contract year and the Mariners are starting to acquire some legitimate pieces around him. A playoff year is probably out of the question, but a .500 year is very possible. Personally, I think he will bounce back and hit over .300 with another 200 hit season. With a better surrounding cast, I see glimpses of the old Ichiro returning. I don’t think he’ll ever return to the level he was on in 2004, but as long as he stays interested in the game, I think he will be an above-average right fielder for the next five years.
Without a doubt, Ichiro is a first ballot Hall-of-famer. He is the only player to have ten straight seasons of 200 or more hits. He also holds the all time record for hits in a single season with 262. Ichiro’s contract runs out at the end of 2012. The main question I believe is whether he will want to keep playing in North America. His friends and family are back in Japan, where he is a fashion icon. If Ichiro does continue to play baseball, I would be shocked if it were for a team outside of Seattle. When his career is finally over, most people will remember Ichiro for helping break the barrier between professional baseball in Japan and MLB. Overall, I expect most will remember Ichiro as being the greatest Japanese baseball player of all time.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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Top 10 Closers: MLB Saves Leaders
Thursday August 25, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB reports): Closers are a topic a lot of people ask about, but I never really got around to writing about. Mainly because, in my opinion, it is a position that is completely overrated. While it certainly helps to have a guy that can go in and slam the door and collect saves for over a decade a la Mariano Rivera, it isn’t necessary to have a “closer” to be a contending team. One need only to look at the top 20 leaders in saves in baseball to notice that the Texas Rangers’ closer Neftali Feliz sits 19th with 25 saves, and Philadelphia Phillies’ Ryan Madson is 20th with 23 saves. It also doesn’t guarantee success, as Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Leo Nunez, Joel Hanrahan are all in the top 10 in saves, while their teams are not in playoff contention.
Top 10 Saves Leaders in MLB as of today:
| Pitcher | Team | Saves | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| Craig Kimbrel | Atlanta Braves | 40 | 14.56 | 3.53 | 1.70 | 1.20 | 3.1 |
| John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers | 37 | 10.86 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.36 | 1.7 |
| Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers | 37 | 8.31 | 4.79 | 2.72 | 4.08 | 0.2 |
| Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants | 35 | 8.72 | 5.20 | 3.19 | 3.40 | 0.7 |
| Heath Bell | San Diego Padres | 35 | 6.79 | 3.23 | 2.55 | 3.07 | 0.7 |
| Drew Storen | Washington Nationals | 34 | 8.03 | 2.19 | 2.77 | 3.48 | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees | 33 | 8.45 | 0.92 | 2.20 | 2.23 | 1.8 |
| Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins | 33 | 8.31 | 2.88 | 4.63 | 4.02 | 0.1 |
| Joel Hanrahan | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 7.85 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 2.17 | 1.8 |
| JJ Putz | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 8.28 | 2.17 | 2.76 | 3.10 | 1.0 |
I look at this list and a few things come to mind:
1) Craig Kimbrel is absolutely filthy.
2) Mariano Rivera is still one of the very best.
3) Closers are more overrated than I originally expected.
4) A lot of saves does not equal success.
5) Craig Kimbrel. Wow.
Craig Kimbrel is having the best year ever for a rookie closer. It isn’t even September and he has 40 saves. Not only that, but he is striking out more than 14 batters per 9 innings. His FIP is a ridiculous 1.20, and his WAR is at 3.1, which is 1.3 higher than any other closer in the Major Leagues. His ground ball rate is 43.7% and has only given up 1 home run in 63 2/3 innings. If the Braves end up winning the Wild Card and have a lead late in games, the shutdown duo of Johnny Venters and Kimbrel should be able to save the game for the Braves in most instances.
John Axford has had a strange way to becoming one of the premier closers in all of baseball. It took him many years to get there, but under the tutelage of Trevor Hoffman, the career saves leader, whom Axford took his job from, he has flourished. In 2010, Axford had 24 saves after taking over for Hoffman mid-season, and this year’s 37 so far are tied for 2nd in the big leagues. Axford gets over 50% ground balls, and keeps the ball in the yard, two main factors for his success.
Jose Valverde is one of the closers whom I find to be overrated. Part of his success can be attributed to a lucky .250 BABIP. He also
walks close to 5 batters per 9 innings, which is extremely high, especially when he does not strike out a very high number of batters. Valverde may appear to be very good with 37 saves, but his 0.2 WAR suggests that he is basically a replacement level pitcher. Surely he is not worth the $7M he is being paid.
Brian Wilson is loved by many in the game. He is funny, has a strange personality, (which seems to be perfectly suited for the bullpen) and he has an outrageous beard. Since 2008, he has accumulated 162 saves, so he is very valuable at the back-end of the Giants’ bullpen. He keeps the ball on the ground, with a career 50% ground ball rate, but he walks a ton of batters (5.20/9IP). He gets a lot of save opportunities because the starting rotation is very good, and his team doesn’t score many runs, so there are a lot of close games.
Heath Bell has put up some ridiculous numbers over the last few years, but these numbers come with half of his games played in the cavernous PETCO Park. While his last two seasons had his K rate over 10, he sits at 6.79 for this season. His ground ball rate is also down 5% to 43. Although his ERA is a good 2.55, his xFIP is 3.89, and like Wilson, gets saves because of an anaemic offense that results in his team often being in close games.
Drew Storen is another of the Washington Nationals’ young phenoms. He moved up the ranks, throwing only 53 2/3 innings in the minor leagues before making his debut in 2010. He has been a tad lucky as his BABIP is .241, but he gets a lot of ground balls, so the hits will even out. He also gives up a higher than average home run per fly ball rate at 11.1%. Storen doesn’t walk many, and as he matures, should probably strike out a higher number. When Washington starts winning more games, he will have even more opportunities for saves.
Mariano Rivera is up to his usual tricks. Even at 41 years old, he is carving up hitters with his signature cut fastball. Rivera has a ridiculous 9:1 K:BB ratio, as well as getting ground balls 47% of the time. His WAR sits at 1.8, tied for second best for closers. The only question is when will this guy ever slow down?
Leo Nunez of the Florida Marlins may be the most overrated closer in baseball. Nunez doesn’t get a lot of ground balls, nor does he strike out a ton, as he gives up a ton of fly balls (49%) and home runs (8 in 56 IP). Nunez’s ERA of 4.63 actually looks worse than his 4.02 FIP, so he has been a little unlucky, but still not very good.
Joel Hanrahan has found a home at the back-end up the Pirates’ bullpen, and is thriving there. While his K rate has dropped to 7.85/9 IP from almost 13 last year, he has walked less batters. Hanrahan has been able to induce ground balls on over half of his plate appearances, and only given up 1 home run in 57 1/3 innings. His stellar numbers have allowed him to tie Rivera for 2nd in closer’s WAR this year.
JJ Putz’s resurgence as a closer this year comes as no surprise to many. Last year as a setup man for Bobby Jenks with the Chicago White Sox, Putz’s K rate was just below 11/9IP, while he walked only 2.5 per 9 innings. He hasn’t put up the same strikeout numbers this year, but he is walking less batters. Putz’s WAR of 1.0 puts him towards the top of the list of closers.
Out of the top 30 relievers in WAR, only 9 are full-time closers. Francisco Rodriguez is among those pitchers, but since he does not close games since traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, he was not counted. Although this doesn’t mean that just ANYONE can close games and earn saves, it does show that many pitchers who have not been given the opportunity probably could get the job done.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Jonny Gomes Traded to the Nationals and Yonder Alonso Called Up by Reds
Tuesday July 26, 2011
MLB reports: The trades are trickling in very slowly thus far as the MLB trade deadline approaches. First Wilson Betemit was traded last week to the Tigers by the Royals. Now, Jonny Gomes is off to Washington with cash in exchange for two minor leaguers. Of most significance is the Gomes move allowing the Reds to call up super prospect Yonder Alonso. The question is whether the Reds are showcasing their rookie outfielder in a potential blockbuster trade or have called him for good to man left field for the next decade in Cincinnati.
Gomes was the darling of the Reds faithful the past two seasons. He slugged 20 home runs in 2009, playing in only 98 games. He followed up with an equally strong campaign last year, blasting 18 home runs with 86 RBIs and 77 runs scored. The Red had signed Gomes after the 2009 season to a 2-year, $2.55 million contract which looked like a bargain going into it this season. The 2011 season however, has not been kind to Gomes. Entering play today, Gomes was batting a paltry .211, with a .336 OBP and .399 SLG. After receiving every day playing time to start the year, Gomes was relegated to part-time duty as the season progressed. A change in scenery was in order and with prospect outfielder Yonder Alonso on the horizon, roster space needed to be opened up.
Gomes is now off to Washington to play out the string. The Nationals, in dire need of an offensive boost, took a chance on the 30-year old Gomes in the hope that he will be able to reclaim some of his past magic with Washington. The Nationals did not hurt themselves, as Gomes comes at a very reasonable salary which will be subsidized by the Reds and cost the team only two fringe prospects. Plus as a potential type “B” free agent at the end of the year, the Nationals would receive a compensation draft pick for Gomes if he is offered arbitration by the team and does not accept. Given Gomes’ offensive potential, it was a low-risk and high-reward move for a team that needed to send a message to its fans that it was serious about contending. Even though the team is out of the penant race this season, the Nationals needed to remain competitive through September to send the right message to its fanbase. Jonny Gomes is a step in the right direction in that respect.
The prospects headed to the Reds are pitcher Christopher Manno and outfielder Bill Rhinehart. Manno, a 38th round pick of the Nationals back in 2009 and then again in the 26th round in 2010 has shined since joining the organization. The 22-year old Manno, a 6’3″ left-handed pitcher, has a 1.47 ERA over 2 seasons in the lower minors, with 13 saves, only 32 hits given up in 61.1 IP and 25/98 BB/K. Rhinehart, 26-years of age, was drafted in the 11th round in 2007. Having made it all the way to AAA in 2010, Rhinehart was playing this season in AA. Up to the time of this trade yesterday, Rhinehart was enjoying his finest professional season to-date. Hitting .283 with 21 home runs, 59 RBIs and .963 OPS, Rhinehart was exhibiting great pop in his bat. But given that neither Manno nor Rhinehart are established major league players and are fringe prospects at best at this point in their careers, the Nationals have to be considered the winner of this trade. They acquired an established major leaguer without giving up any of their top prospects.
From the Reds’ perspective, the bigger corresponding move is the recall of Yonder Alonso. With his .296 AVG in AAA with 12 homer runs and .860 OPS,
Alonso had little left to prove in the minors. Scouts have never questioned his bat, as he has displayed the rare combination of power and patience from a very young age, far advanced for his years. The only knock is his defense, as Alonso is a converted outfielder after having been blocked at first base by perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto. But all the reports that we have seen is that Alonso has progressed well in learning the outfield to the point that he is considered adequate. Although he is no danger of ever winning a gold glove, Alonso’s bat more than compensates for any defensive shortcomings. The debate for the next five days will be whether Alonso is remaining with the Reds or being shipped in a blockbuster. My gut is that he is staying put.
The two biggest names being linked to the Reds in trade talks is Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies and James Shields of the Rays. Either player would cost a substantial package in return, including possibly Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco, Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso. The package that I have read for both players would be centered around Alonso and 1-2 more top prospects in the Reds’ organization. From all indications, the Reds are in on the two superstar hurlers but are attempting to hold onto their top prospects if possible. In a perfect world for the Reds, they would be able to land Jimenez while only giving up Bailey and Grandal. But the Rockies, like the Rays, will demand a package that includes Alonso and/or Mesoraco. A deep price to pay talent but reasonable, considering the upside and the high level of talent that would be coming back to the Reds.
At the end of the day, I believe that the Reds will regret it if they move Alonso. He is rare hitter that will be an All-Star for many years to come. While top flight pitching is hard to find and develop, it usually comes at a high price and risk. Pitchers, given the strain and wear and tear they put on their arms, are the most likely position to be injured and thus come with the highest risks and question marks. The hope is that the Reds appreciate the talent that they have in Yonder Alonso and continue to cultivate and develop him. With such a deep pool of talent, they should still be able to make the headliner trade they are shooting for without giving up their top rated young hitter. They were able to move Gomes to Washington to make room for Alonso, now hopefully we can sit back and watch Alonso combine with Mesoraco, Votto, Phillips and Stubbs to form the newest version of the Big Red Machine. The Reds are on the verge of putting together something very special. Hopefully they stick to the plan.
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Hiroki Kuroda: Pitcher Looks to be Possibly Traded From the Dodgers to Rangers
Monday July 25, 2011
MLB reports: One of the most underrated pitchers in the game is currently on the auction block. Los Angeles Dodgers hurler, Hiroki Kuroda, is currently being shopped to major league teams as the July 31st trade deadline is nearly upon us. The 36-year old Kuroda has been very consistent since joining the Dodgers, enjoying solid numbers despite a constant lack of run support. With a no-trade clause, Kuroda has the ability to refuse a trade in remain in the Los Angeles for the rest of the season. But with demand high for the hurler and teams likely to offer incentives (in the $1-$2 million range), it appears that Kuroda will be changing addresses in the next six days.
A veteran of the Nippon Professional Baseball League, Kuroda played from 1997-2007 with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp in Japan before coming over to North America. As a free agent outside of the posting system, Kuroda was free to sign with any major league team. In 2007, Kuroda signed a 3-year, $35.3 million contract with the Dodgers and last offseason re-signed for 1-year, $12 million. A look at his major league numbers show that Kuroda has been a solid and dependable veteran:
| Year | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 9 | 10 | 3.73 | 183.1 | 181 | 42 | 116 | 1.216 |
| 2009 | 8 | 7 | 3.76 | 117.1 | 110 | 24 | 87 | 1.142 |
| 2010 | 11 | 13 | 3.39 | 196.1 | 180 | 48 | 159 | 1.161 |
| 2011 | 6 | 12 | 3.19 | 127.0 | 122 | 33 | 97 | 1.220 |
| 4 Seasons | 34 | 42 | 3.52 | 624.0 | 593 | 147 | 459 | 1.186 |
| 162 Game Avg. | 11 | 14 | 3.52 | 207 | 197 | 49 | 152 | 1.186 |
The teams that have pursued Kuroda are the Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds. Looking at the numbers, I don’t blame them. In some ways the second coming of Hideo Nomo, Kuroda may not be as flashy but he has been dependable. Except for 2009 when he suffered through injuries, Kuroda has pitched close to 200 innings every season since joining the Dodgers. This year has been one of Kuroda’s finest, with a 3.19 ERA and 1.220 WHIP, which have only led him to a 6-12 record on a meek Dodgers squad. With better run support, his record could easily be 12-6. Now with July 31st rapidly approaching, people are wondering whether a) Kuroda will waive his no-trade clause; and b) which team will acquire him.
I am surprised that more teams are not pursuing the hurler. With so few quality starters available at exorbitant prices, including Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies and James Shields of the Rays, Kuroda may be the best and most affordable quality starter available to a team that needs a starting pitcher for its stretch run. While Jimenez and Shields will take approximately 3 top prospects, Kuroda may only take 1 or 2 decent prospects. Not a high price to pay considering what a team will get back in return.
From the names thrown around, I would see the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers having the best chance to land Hiroki Kuroda, with the Rangers being the most likely to win the Kuroda derby. The Rangers have a great farm system and many solid prospects for the Dodgers to choose from. As well, the Rangers give Kuroda the best chance of winning a championship, having made it last year to the World Series. Other teams will surely take a run at the hurler, especially the Yankees and Red Sox. But when push comes to shove, expect Kuroda to grab his cowboy hat and boots and head to the lone star state. We don’t profess to have a crystal ball and anything can happen this week. The Los Angeles Dodgers will base their final decision on receiving full salary relief and the best prospects in return for their star pitcher. It is always fun to speculate at the trade deadline time. Let’s see which team ultimately offers the best package to acquire one of baseball’s best Japanese imports: Hiroki Kuroda.
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Jair Jurrjens: Braves Ace of the Future or Trade Candidate?
Wednesday July 20, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): Now that the trade deadline is fast approaching, teams in contention are scrambling to find the pieces they desperately need to reach the playoffs. Teams that are out of contention are scouring other teams’ minor league affiliates in search of suitable trade partners. One man who is terribly busy fielding on calls on one of his biggest talents is the GM of the Atlanta Braves, Frank Wren. Opposing GMs have coveted his ace pitcher, Jair Jurrjens over the past few years. But now that Jurrjens has developed into a solid dependable pitcher who has exceeded his potential, Wren’s phone will be ringing right up until the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline.
Why Atlanta should hold on to their ace
Jair Jurrjens is young and controllable with an inexpensive contract. He is an inning eater, and a dependable arm that will give 6+ innings per game. Jurrjens is in his fourth full season, with the key variable that many people forget is that he is only 25 years old. At the halfway mark of this season, Jurrjens has a 12-3 record with a sparkling 2.26 ERA. Jair also induces a ton of ground balls, with a GB% of 48.2. When a guy can throw strikes consistently, it makes it much easier to be successful. Three walks per nine innings is a pretty good career mark, and he has seemingly improved almost every year, as Jurrjens currently sits at a 2.10 BB/9 for 2011. A young, controllable ace that is continually improving might be something that the Braves want to hold onto. Further, the Braves should even consider giving a long-term extension to Jurrjens given what he means to the ballclub.
Why Atlanta should trade Jurrjens
Why would a contending team trade their ace, you might ask? Well, a guy like Jurrjens might be overachieving for a few reasons. First of all, the velocity on his fastball has dipped every season since his rookie campaign. His average fastball was once 93 mph, whereas it sits at 89 now. Now this could mean a couple of things, such as he has learned how to pitch and doesn’t need the velocity. However, his extra reliance on his change-up and slider; each of them up in usage about 3% over previous years, tells me that he knows his fastball isn’t quite as effective. Jurrjens doesn’t strike many guys out, and there is almost no way that he can maintain a 4.1% homerun per fly ball rate. His xFIP is exactly a run and a half higher than his ERA at 3.76, so a measure of his performance has been attributed to luck. Numbers can be sometimes be deceiving and in Jurrjens case, he might not be as good as his statistics appear to show. Sometimes its good to maximize a return when the market is at its peak and Jurjjens may very well be sitting at the top of his ceiling of potential. Otherwise, if Jurrjens does regress, he value will never be higher than it is at the moment.
Which teams could trade for Jurrjens
If the Detroit Tigers are willing to give up a ton of prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez, I believe they would do the same for Jurrjens. Same goes with the Red Sox and Yankees. Detroit has at least kicked the tires on many starting pitchers, including Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, and Jeremy Guthrie. I see Jurrjens as an upgrade over those pitchers, so it would take a decent package to steal him away. The Rockies covet four top prospects for Jimenez, so I don’t see why the Braves wouldn’t try to get at least three top prospects for Jurrjens. He may not have the electric stuff that Ubaldo has, but he certainly has a track record of success.
Another fit to trade for Jurrjens that may fly under the radar could be the Indians. Mitch Talbot and Fausto Carmona have
underperformed, and they desperately need an upgrade if they are to contend. This could cause a bidding war for Jurrjens. I can see righty Alex White, lefty Drew Pomeranz and outfielder Nick Weglarz being involved in such a deal. Prospects Jacob Turner (RHP), Andy Oliver (LHP) and Nick Castellanos (3B) may be included in a potential deal with Detroit.
In the NL, if the St. Louis Cardinals decide to make a push in the wide open Central Division, they may be looking at starting pitching help. Kyle McLellan and Jake Westbrook have both struggled, so it could be a possibility they get in the mix. Third baseman Zack Cox and starting pitcher Shelby Miller are possible candidates to be moved in such a scenario.
Verdict
Atlanta doesn’t appear to be actively shopping Jurrjens, but it would be in their best interest to at least gauge the interest of other teams. The Braves could get a return for Jurrjens that would be impossible to refuse. With some of the prospects named, the Braves could still contend, and restock their system for years to come. Until then, we expect Jurrjens to remain a Brave unless Frank Wren gets blown away a trade proposal. With the active trade winds blowing this year and numerous contending teams desperate for starting pitching help, anything is possible.
Editor’s Note: Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. Rob was selected from the many candidates who applied to write for MLB reports. Please feel free to leave comments and to welcome Rob aboard. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Welcome Back Dontrelle Willis: D-Train Comeback with the Reds
Friday July 15, 2011
MLB reports: The D-Train is back baby. Kind of. It’s too early to tell. Dontrelle Willis burst onto the scene and looked to be a star in the making once upon a time. After four solid campaigns in Florida, 2007 was seen as an off-year for the ace of the Marlins. Drafted originally by the Cubs in the 8th round in the 2000 draft, Willis was shifted in a package of players including Julian Tavarez for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. Willis became an instant star in Florida and throughout the MLB community. He had his own television commercials promoting the sport and was considered one of baseball’s greatest ambassadors. In his 2003 NL ROY campaign, Willis made the All-Star team and won a World Series. Not a bad way to start a career. From there, Willis made his second and last appearance at an All-Star game in 2005 and finished second in the NL CY Young voting for top pitcher. With such a solid start to his career, few observers blinked when Willis was relatively ineffective in 2007. However, the misery was the sign of things to come. The road became bumpy and full of twists and turns that few expected. From the majors to the minors, back and forth, until few expected to see him back. Until this past Sunday, July 10th, when Dontrelle Willis returned to the major leagues, this time in a Reds uniform.
Although the blip in 2007 may not have scared off most observers, it was enough to put the Marlins in a tailspin. On December 5, 2007, the Marlins shipped off their franchise hitter and pitcher in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers, in exchange for prospects Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and four others. As legend has it, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski approached the Marlins and gave a list of available prospects. The Marlins made their selections and the trade took no time to put together. Shortly after, Willis signed a 3-year, $29 million contract and Cabrera signed his monster contract to make him one of the top paid players in the game. The move of Cabrera was seen at the time as partially motivated by the clearing of Willis’ salary off the Marlins’ books. Despite off-field incidents involving alcohol related arrests and domestic abuse, Cabrera has been a perennial MVP candidate since joining the Tigers. Miller and Maybin, the centerpieces of the deal for the Marlins, have not played to expectations and have since moved on to the Red Sox and Padres respectively. Then there was Willis. While viewed at the time as giving the Tigers a top-of-the-rotation starter, Willis proved to be anything but. As the story goes, when Willis came to Detroit, he did not bring his fastball or his control and was run out-of-town in 2010 as a result.
Willis suffered for two and a bit seasons in Detroit, receiving his walking papers officially on May 30, 2010. During his stay in Detroit, Willis played for three different minor league teams in two years, making it all the way down to A-ball at different points. While a demotion to A-ball may have benefitted Roy Halladay in his younger years, the same could not be said for Willis. The jumping started, from the Diamondbacks to the minor league levels pitching for the San Francisco Giants organization. Then Willis signed with the Reds this past off-season a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Despite playing well in spring training, Willis was still sent to pitch in AAA for Louisville to start the 2011 season.
Here are the career numbers of Dontrelle Willis as they stand today:
| Year | Tm | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | FLA | 14 | 6 | 3.30 | 27 | 27 | 160.2 | 148 | 58 | 142 |
| 2004 | FLA | 10 | 11 | 4.02 | 32 | 32 | 197.0 | 210 | 61 | 139 |
| 2005 | FLA | 22 | 10 | 2.63 | 34 | 34 | 236.1 | 213 | 55 | 170 |
| 2006 | FLA | 12 | 12 | 3.87 | 34 | 34 | 223.1 | 234 | 83 | 160 |
| 2007 | FLA | 10 | 15 | 5.17 | 35 | 35 | 205.1 | 241 | 87 | 146 |
| 2008 | DET | 0 | 2 | 9.38 | 8 | 7 | 24.0 | 18 | 35 | 18 |
| 2009 | DET | 1 | 4 | 7.49 | 7 | 7 | 33.2 | 37 | 28 | 17 |
| 2010 | TOT | 2 | 3 | 5.62 | 15 | 13 | 65.2 | 72 | 56 | 47 |
| 2010 | DET | 1 | 2 | 4.98 | 9 | 8 | 43.1 | 48 | 29 | 33 |
| 2010 | ARI | 1 | 1 | 6.85 | 6 | 5 | 22.1 | 24 | 27 | 14 |
| 2011 | CIN | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 Seasons | 71 | 63 | 4.11 | 193 | 190 | 1152.0 | 1177 | 467 | 843 | |
| 162 Game Avg. | 13 | 11 | 4.11 | 34 | 34 | 205 | 209 | 83 | 150 | |
| FLA (5 yrs) | 68 | 54 | 3.78 | 162 | 162 | 1022.2 | 1046 | 344 | 757 | |
| DET (3 yrs) | 2 | 8 | 6.86 | 24 | 22 | 101.0 | 103 | 92 | 68 | |
| ARI (1 yr) | 1 | 1 | 6.85 | 6 | 5 | 22.1 | 24 | 27 | 14 | |
| CIN (1 yr) | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | |
| NL (7 yrs) | 69 | 55 | 3.84 | 169 | 168 | 1051.0 | 1074 | 375 | 775 | |
| AL (3 yrs) | 2 | 8 | 6.86 | 24 | 22 | 101.0 | 103 | 92 | 68 | |
Since leaving Florida, Willis at best has been inconsistent to unusable. A starting pitchers that cannot consistently throw strikes and get hitters out will not last in the majors. Dontrelle Willis proved this in 2007, when his shrinking talent led him to a ticket out of Florida as he continued to bounce around, until last week when Willis pitched for the Reds. Quite a performance for a pitcher not expected to ever pitch again in the minors. Willis proved last Sunday he was back, if only for one shining moment.
On July 10, 2011, Dontrelle Willis made his first MLB start in over a year against the Milwaukee Brewers. Willis pitched 6 innings, giving up 2 hits, 4 earned runs and a 4/4 BB/K. Willis gets his next kick at the can this coming Monday, July 18th vs. the Pirates and James McDonald. Should be a powerhouse game, keep an eye on it if you can. This is no surprise, given how well Willis pitched for the Bats this year. In 13 starts, Willis had a 5-2 record, 2.63 ERA, 67 SO in 75.1 IP and only 20 walks, good for a 1.2o8 WHIP. Considering that Willis struggled at both the major league and minor league levels from 2008-2010, his strong start in AAA was seen as a possible sign of a comeback. Now after having his first MLB start under the belt, Willis can go out and simply pitch his game.
Willis was seen as battling an anxiety disorder during his time in Detroit and many experts were ready to write him off. Believe it or not, Dontrelle Willis still isn’t even 30 years-old yet, with his birthday coming up on January 12 2012. He is still young and has the potential inside of him. Without any major physical injuries or setbacks, Willis still has a good arm and has many innings in him to pitch. This year, watching Willis in spring training, he looked to have his head back on straight. He was playing the game the right way. Strong pitching and timely hitting to boot. But despite his spring success, Reds management decided to send Willis to AAA until his recall last week. It looks like Willis has undergone a transformation as far as simplifying his delivery and avoiding his non-traditional leg kick. From the Reds point of view, they may have landed the steal of the year with Willis in their rotation.
This story till boil down to the confidence and mental health of Dontrelle Willis. As long as the man can think positive thoughts and do his thing on the mound, good things will happen. As long as Willis stays healthy, he will succeed provided he keeps his head on straight. With more and more MLB players admitting to depression and anxiety disorders, it is clear that today’s game is as much mental as it is physical. One great thing about sports, especially baseball, is that fans love an underdog that makes a comeback. For a guy with a ROY, World Series ring and two All-Star appearances, you don’t see many comebacks bigger than that of Dontrelle Willis. With one start under his belt and another one coming back next Monday, Willis is making baby steps. Given his age and track record, the potential is there. Here is hoping that Willis can fulfill it.
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Top Home Run Hitters: The MLB Leaderboard
Sunday June 12, 2011
MLB reports: Another week goes by and we find that there are more changes on the MLB Home Run Leaderboard. Jose Bautista finally has some competition and the proven long ball hitters of seasons past have finally made the list. Let’s take a look at the home run leaders in Major League Baseball as of today:
Tie 1st: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays: 20
Jose Bautista hit #20 on May 28th. Since then, he has remained stuck on 20 while the rest of baseball starts to catch up. For a man in a home run draught, he still has 58/35 BB/K on the season, with a .338 AVG, .490 OBP and .692 SLG. As Bautista works to recapture his early season form, Adam Lind has come back to the Jays as a man on a mission. Lind is hitting .327 on the season with 11 home runs of his own, a beneficiary of the protection that Bautista can afford him in the lineup. Realistically speaking, Bautista was never going to hit 80 home runs this season. But he remains on pace for 50+ and Bautista may still match or exceed his 54 long balls from last year.
Tie 1st: Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees: 20
There is a 2nd sherif in town and his name is Curtis Granderson. One of three Yankees on our list, Granderson has enjoyed a rejuvenation at age 30. Granderson is close to matching his 24 home runs from last year and well on his way to exceeding his career high of 30 home runs from 2009. Granderson’s 27/65 BB/K ratio tell me that he has not necessarily changed his free swinging ways at the plate and a “market correction” may be in order here. But despite his .267 AVG, Granderson has not shown any slow downs in the power department. 2011 has been Curtis Granderson’s coming out party and if Bautista isn’t careful, we may have another home run king on the season very soon.
Tie 3rd: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: 19
Matt Kemp (“The Bison”) at the age of 26, has finally started to cement his place in the book of baseball superstardom. With 19 home runs on the year, to go along with his incredible .331 AVG, .408 OBP and .632 SLG, Kemp has gone from prospect to star seemingly overnight. After hitting 26 and 28 home runs over the last two seasons respectively, Kemp is on pace to hit 40-50 home runs this year. Hitting in the heart of the Dodgers lineup with Andre Ethier, Kemp has been the heart and soul of the team this year. As he matures as a person and leader, so has his game developed on the field. The sky is the limit for this young superstar, who has future MVP written all over him.
Tie 3rd: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: 19
The last two spots on our top-five list should come as no surprise, starting with Yankee slugger Mark Teixeira. With 39 home runs in 2009 and 43 in 2005, Teixeira has showcased his home run strengths in previous years. A consistent 30+ home run threat, Teixeira is on his way to setting a career high in the category, showing his enjoyment playing in Yankee Stadium with its short porch. Teixeira, with his smooth swing, home run park and protection in the lineup, has all the factors in his favor. By season’s end, I expect him to remain near the top of this list and could very well finish at the #1 position.
5th: Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers: 18
The final spot goes to Prince Fielder, the impending free agent slugging first baseman for the Milwaukee Brewers. Prince has literally done it all this season. He has shown a great eye, with 36/31 BB/K in 2011, to go along with his .300 AVG, .410 OBP and .614 SLG. The man hit 50 home runs in 2007 and 46 in 2009. With a BIG payday ahead (rumored to be in the $200 million range), Fielder is showcasing his skills this year. At 27-years of age, Prince will be able to write his own ticket when picking his next home. He has certainly ensured to give himself the best chance to make the big bucks in the future by his strong play in the present. Fielder’s agent? None other than Scott Boras. Expect Fielder to continue to explode on the field all season with teammate Ryan Braun as the Brewers make one more giant push with its hulking first baseman steering the ship.
After looking at such an impressive top-five list, the rest of the sluggers represent the who’s-who of baseball. Bruce, Braun, Quentin, Pujols, Cabrera, A-Rod…yes, they are all here. Mike Stanton with 16 home runs has come together quickly in his 2nd season to become one of the top home run hitters in the game. As we discussed several times to start the season, the cream always rises to the top as the months go by. As we sit at almost the halfway mark of the season, the proven home run sluggers have proven just that.
The Best of the Rest:
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds: 17
Carlos Quentin, Chicago White Sox: 17
Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals: 16
Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox: 16
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox: 16
Mike Stanton, Florida Marlins: 16
Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers: 15
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: 14
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers: 13
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: 13
Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: 13
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E-MAILBAG: Ask the Reports, Wednesday May 25th
Thank you for reading the E-mailbag. Please send all your questions to mlbreports@gmail.com and please include your first name and City/Country.
We will be compiling a list of your questions from our e-mailbag and posting the responses on Wednesdays.
Wednesday May 25, 2011
Q: Is Jose Bautista’s start for real? Do you think he can keep it up? From Brian,Toronto
MLB reports: Hello Brian. Great choice of topics as Bautista has been the talk of baseball in 2011. Considering his body of work, every day that goes by you have to believe that the Jays slugger is for real. After a great September in 2009, Bautista hit 54 long balls in 2010 and is already up to 19 in 2011. It is mind boggling considering that Bautista has missed several games this season already for personal reasons and neck issues. We prepared a profile on Jose Bautista at the Reports, which you can view here. Jose Bautista appears to be a late bloomer that has discovered his stroke and is here to stay. He is now the face of the Toronto Blue Jays and a home run force for several seasons to come.
Q: What is your favorite major league ball park and why? FromAngela,Vermont
MLB reports: Although I have not been to every MLB stadium, I have definitely seen my fair share. J If I had to select a favorite, it would likely be PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The view of the water, the layout of the stadium and the overall baseball feel is one that is without comparison. I have enjoyed every seat that I have seen in Pittsburgh and would highly recommend seeing the park if you can. A close second is Comerica Park in Detroit. Comerica is a combination of my love of the Tigers team with a beautiful stadium and rich history. That stadium really has it all. But for overall look and feel, PNC wins out.
Q: If you could watch baseball in any country, which would you pick and why? I am thinking Japan? From Larry, San Francisco
MLB reports: You are correct Larry, Japan goes to the top of the list. Clearly you have been paying attention to my tweets! The enthusiasm and energy from a Japan baseball game, as I have seen on television, literally has no comparison in any other country. I cannot wait until the day when I am in Japan and watch a game live at a local stadium. From the food, cheering fans, uniforms, style of play…Japan has it all. I also have Cuba very high on my list. From what I watched in the World Baseball Classic, Cubans take their baseball very seriously and my gut feel is that diehard fans would love watching live baseball in Cuba. Hopefully it works out for me one day, we shall see!
Q: I have been a Cubs fan for 30 years. I think that I’m done suffering and looking to change teams. Are my cubbies ever going to win? From Bruce, Windy City
MLB reports: Bruce…Bruce…Bruce. Stand by your team! I cannot blame you for being discouraged. But if the Red Sox and White Sox can win the World Series, so can the Cubs. If your team goes all the way and you are off the bandwagon, I think you will feel very sorry. Part of a sports fan, especially baseball, is that you will have to suffer for many years sometimes. In your case as a Cubs fan, for a lifetime potentially. But team loyalty is key and stick with your Cubs. They are on the right track in slowly rebuilding the farm system and should be a contender hopefully in the near future.
Q: Will Mariano Rivera ever stop being good? I wish he had signed with the Red Sox when FA. He throws one pitch and is over 40, what’s up with that? From Gene,Boston
MLB reports: The mystery of Rivera and the famous cutter will live in baseball legendary for years to come. How he does it few of us know, but somehow he was able to master one amazing pitch and has used it to build a hall of fame career. You can dream, but Rivera was never going to leave the Yankees. He came up a Yankee and will retire as a Yankee. The Red Sox did make a play for him in his last free agency year, but he indicated all along that he was staying in New York. But despite his magical career numbers which grow with his strong 2011 season, the time is drawing near for the Sandman. I can see Rivera having 1-2 years at most left in the tank. But once age and injuries finally catch up, we will know when he is done. Mariano Rivera is probably the greatest reliever of our generation, if not of all time. It has been a pleasure to watch him and we wish him the best as he writes the final chapters of his storybook career.
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MLB 2011 DL: Injury Updates
MLB reports: To answer many of our readers inquiries, here is an update on some of the casualties and wounded in the world of baseball and when each player is expected to return from the disabled list:
Phil Hughes: Yankees
Hughes went on the 15 day disabled list in mid-April with a “dead arm” and has not returned since. On April 28th Hughes received a cortisone shot and reports have indicated that his shoulder has responded well. The timetable for Hughes to return to the mound is 6-8 weeks, which would put him sometime into July. Hughes has not started throwing yet but has visited specialists who have ruled out surgery at this point. With a dead arm type injury, it is not always easy to predict where the future lies. Justin Verlander went through such an episode in his career and has come back stronger than ever. The fear though is that the velocity will not return and surgery could be lurking in the background. Until Hughes begins throwing and regains his velocity, Yankees fans will continue to huddle in prayer and hope for Hughes to come back and reclaim his 2010 form this year.
Carlos Guillen: Tigers
Guillen has been bothered by a sore left knee and out of action since mid-March and going on the 15 day DL. Reports have indicated that Guillen is taking ground balls, but no other baseball activities at this point. The original prognosis of mid-May does not appear likely, with an end of the month or early June return a possibility. With his wonky surgically repaired knee, Guillen will likely be a DH at best if and when he returns to the Tigers lineup. There is a possibility of a relapse here, so the Tigers are progressing forward without Guillen and any contributions this year will be considered a bonus.
Joe Mauer: Twins
The $184 million dollar man is off to a dreadful start in 2011, the first season
of his monster contract. After having surgery on his knee in the off-season, Mauer has been bothered by leg weakness all season. Mauer has started hitting and throwing, but his return is up in the air. Once considered to be the greatest catcher in baseball, talk has already started about a position change in his future. After moving prospect Wilson Ramos, the Twins cannot be happy about the state of Mauer’s health. Like the other members of this list thus far, Mauer’s return date is unknown at this point. With the Twins off to a terrible start this season, there is much pressure to get Mauer into the lineup to get the team going. But considering the investment in the catcher, the team will likely be cautious and continue to bring him along slowly in the fear that further damage could result in rushing him. Expect Mauer back sometime in June likely, but his catching days appear to coming to an end in the near future unfortunately.
Josh Hamilton: Rangers
After breaking a bone in his right arm from a home plate collision early in the season, Hamilton is nearing his return to the Rangers lineup. Hamilton is taking swings and should hopefully ready soon for a couple of minor league rehab appearances. I would expect Hamilton back in the Rangers lineup in the next two weeks if all goes well. The brittle Hamilton continues to endure bad luck in the health department, with the Rangers sorely needing a healthy Hamilton in order to contend in the AL West.
Chien-Ming Wang: Nationals
After 2 missed seasons, Wang continues to try to come back from a torn
shoulder capsule and pitch once again in the majors. After breaking his right foot in 2008, Wang ended up injuring his shoulder and has not returned to pitch in a professional game since. Still rehabbing in the Nationals system, it appears unlikely that we will see Wang pitch again. Fans still hope that the former back-to-back 19 game winner can find health and pitch again, but after a prolonged absence, the window of opportunity continues to close further every week/month that goes by.
Johan Santana: Mets
Another torn shoulder capsule survivor, Santana underwent his surgery last September. Reports have indicated a possible July return for Santana, which appear to be optimistic at best. With a similar injury to Wang, there is no guarantees of when Santana and what condition he will be in. Good news in that Santana is throwing off a mound and flat ground and reported no setbacks to date. But with these types of injuries, relapses are always a possibility. If the Mets flounder this year as expected, the smart advice is to rest Santana and bring him along slowly, with a 2012 return being the better bet. Only time will tell if Santana will return and reclaim his spot as one of the top starting pitchers in baseball. At this point, I would not be counting on it.
Chase Utley: Phillies
With injuries all around in baseball, few have been more anxious than the
disappearance of Chase Utley. With the Phillies offense built around Utley and Howard, a long-term absence by the second baseman was seen as damaging by the Phillies faithful. Talk at the start of the season was a possible September return by Utley, based on the knee injury. Philadelphia got a great shot in the arm when Utley’s rehab progressed so well to the point that he is already DHing this week in minor league rehab games, with a possible return by the end of the month. Far ahead of schedule, the hope is that Utley is fully recovered and will be strong for the remainder of the season. Utley’s story is one of the few bright spots in our long list of injuries in this report.
Scott Rolen: Reds
Placed on the DL at the end of April with a strained shoulder, Rolen is no stranger to baseball injuries. But being the professional he is, Rolen also works very hard and keeps himself in strong game shape to attempt to avoid long-term absences. Rolen has been taking batting practice this week and has also been running the bases and participating in fielding drills. No timetable on his return at this point, but based on his advanced baseball activity, I would expect a return by the end of this month.
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
E-MAILBAG: Ask the Reports, Wednesday May 4th
Thank you for reading the E-mailbag. Please send all your questions to mlbreports@gmail.com and please include your first name and City/Country.
We will be compiling a list of your questions from our e-mailbag and posting the responses on Wednesdays.
Wednesday May 4, 2011
Q: Magglio Ordonez said today he is hitting with one leg. The Tigers should put him on the DL. He looks horrible this year. From Garrett, Michigan
MLB reports: No dispute from my end. In 77 at bats this year, Ordonez is hitting .169 with a brutal .411 OPS. No home runs and two RBIs. Whatever the Tigers need to do to get him off the field, I say go for it. Ordonez was coming off a decent 2010 campaign, where he hit .303, twelve home runs in 84 games with a .852 OPS. But at 37 years old, there are few excuses for the once big time slugger who is starting to show his age and wear and tear. Ordonez was lucky to get a contract with the Tigers for this year, who were planning to let him go after last season. But his steady numbers warranted one more go around for them. In my estimation, father time is calling and has Magglio’s number. With a hurt ankle and pride still on the line, I would like to see Ordonez finish his career on a high note rather than hanging on for too long. The DL is coming soon and retirement should not be far away from there.
Q: Most underrated player in the AL? In your opinion? Mine’s Maicer Izturis. From Taryn, New Jersey
MLB reports: Izturis is a nice pick, with a .340 average, .897 OPS, 9 runs and 10 RBIs going into today’s action. My pick is one of my favorite whipping boys, Jeff Francoeur of the Royals. I am extremely hard on Jeff for his poor eye at the plate. While he will never be Jose Bautista at the plate, Francouer is experiencing a career renaissance this year. .315 average, .956 OPS, seven home runs, 23 RBIs and 19 Runs. Francouer has seven walks to date which is on pace for a career high for him, but his twenty strikeouts are a little alarming. Overall, Francouer has benefitted from playing with Gordon and Butler and has provided the steady veteran leadership that the team needed. While I do not expect him to continue this pace, he is by far the most underrated player in the AL in 2011, rising from the scrap heap to glory overnight.
Q: hows Danny Duffy been doing? What’s his chances of being brought up this year? From Jory, Parts Unknown
MLB reports: What a roller coaster this kid has been to-date. From future game all-star appearance, to leaving camp to considering retirement last year to just coming off Pitcher of the Week honors in AAA. The 3rd round pick from 2007 has been lights out this year. In five AAA starts, Duffy is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 6/33 BB/K ratio. Imagine, 33 strikeouts in 26 innings pitched. Outstanding. Duffy played in four levels last year and has risen quickly through the Royals system. At 22 years of age, he has a career 2.51 ERA and 1.093 WHIP. How he ever feel to the 3rd round is beyond me. After top prospect Grant Desme left the A’s last year to enter the priesthood and the psychological issues faced by ex-Royal Zack Greinke early in his career, the Royals have to be pleased that Duffy has been so consistently solid to-date.
Two areas of concern though exist. Firstly, the Royals will be careful not to bring Duffy up to quickly and burn him out. They will want to see him excel over a long period in AAA before making the call. Secondly, he has only pitched 26 innings in five starts and will need to build up his arm strength and endurance to be ready for the majors. At the pace that Duffy is going and the Royals sitting above .500, the Royals cannot keep Duffy down for much longer. With Eric Hosmer tearing up AAA as well (see yesterday’s feature), I can see the two top prospects coming to Kansas City at the same time, earliest by the end of this month and latest July. Duffy is likely to have little prove at AAA this year and is earning his shot. Expect him to get it soon.
Q: With Jesus Montero’s D such an issue, why not let the kid move to DH or 1B and just let him focus on hitting? From Rick, New York
MLB reports: A good question that many baseball analysts have asked: What to do with Jesus Montero? If it were up to me, I would leave at catcher for as long as possible. Here are factors to consider. The Yankees have one of the best all around first basemen in the game right now, Mark Teixeira who is signed to a long-term deal. Russell Martin is the current Yankees catcher, who is still young and has turned around his career. Martin is under team control until 2012 and based on his current play, will possibly be signed to another contract by the Yankees in the future. The Yankees have additional catching prospects in the wings, Francisco Cervelli, Gary Sanchez and Austine Romine. With no opening at first base and a logjam at catcher, the only opening appears to be DH. Here are my thoughts: Installing Montero as a full-time DH is the worst case scenario. If the Yankees keep him and do not feel that he is their best option at catcher, DH is already an option. But to groom him at this point to be a future first baseman or DH doesn’t make sense. Montero at 21 would have his development stunted by moving from catcher to a non-essential position. Plus his trade value would plummet.
The Yankees need a top starting pitcher in the worst way and Jesus Montero is their best shot at one. Montero’s highest trade value will be at catcher and that is where the Yankees will keep him. If the defensive position does not work out, Montero could easily transition to first or DH, as these are not difficult areas to adapt to. But if Montero is to bring strong trade value back for the Yankees or even have a shot as their future catcher, New York must leave him as a catcher in the minors. After 21 home runs last year in AAA, Montero is currently hitting .373 in his second go-around in AAA. The 2/16 BB/K ratio is a concern, as his only one home run on the season. But recall, Montero started off slowly last year and finished the year strong. The bat was never of concern for Montero and he will continue to hit no matter where he plays defensively. The key is to maximum his value at this moment.
Q: Looking at Dodgers minor league players. What do you think of Rubby De La Rosa? From Larry, Laughlin
MLB reports: We end this week’s e-mailbag with #1 fan Larry, a big Dodgers fan and his finding of Rubby De La Rosa. The 22-year-old Dominican pitcher is the 90th ranked prospect in baseball according to Baseball America. After a solid 2010 playing in 2 levels, De La Rosa is back for his first full year in AA. The numbers are there: 2-1 record in 4 starts, 3.38 ERA and 8/29 BB/K ratio. The 29 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings is phenomenal, although his 1.359 WHIP is a little high. In his 5th minor league season, De La Rosa will be brought along slowly and will play most of the year at AA. I could see him brought to AAA near the end of the year, with a chance to make the Dodgers in 2012. The kid has a bright future, no doubt. Baseball America ranks him high on the top prospect list for a reason. At 6’1″ and 185 pounds, he could stand to fill out a little bit and gain better control. The sky is the limit, as we could be seeing the next Pedro/Ramon Martinez. The Dodgers have always been great at finding and developing Dominican pitchers. De La Rosa should be next in line and provided he stays healthy, should see time in the majors by next year. Great find Larry, this kid is a keeper.
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Patient Hitters: The Leaders in Walks
MLB reports: As many of you know from my past articles and tweets, the one quality I look for the most in hitters is patience: the ability to take walks. The art of the base on balls was exemplified somewhat in the “moneyball” Oakland approach and has been adopted by the Red Sox team in particular, among others. People often ask me why I value hitters that take walks so highly. Very simply, walks in my mind lead often to the overall development of every facet of a hitters game. A hitter that has good judgement of the strike zone and take walks should get on base at a high rate. A hitter that takes many walks is more likely to judge better pitches to hit, which should increase their number of hits and home runs correspondingly. When I used to play fantasy baseball, I often looked for batters with high walk totals in filling out my rosters. These hitters would win championships for me, as they do often for baseball teams in real life.
Patient hitters have a high value in baseball, this has become a fact of life. Putting this theory to the test, let’s take a look at which batters sit among the leader board in walks as of today. It will be interesting to see which of these players are considered top players, historically and coming into their own as of today. Has the number of walks taken this year helped each player in other statistical categories? Are each of these players better hitters for having many walks? The results may surprise you.
1st: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (19)
Last year 100 walks went hand-in-hand with a league leading 54 home runs. This year, Bautista leads the league with 19 walks and 8 home runs. For a man who hit .260 last year, the high walk has remained while the average has jumped to a league leading .364. Interesting to note, none of Batista’s walks have been intentional. Bautista for me is the poster boy of how patience and power are inter-twined. You almost cannot have one without the other. For anyone that doubts the value of walks, go look up Bautista’s stats again…they will astound you.
T-2nd: Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (18)
Bobby Abreu, along with Youkilis, Adam Dunn and Swisher, is a resident in the patience club. With 1,360 career walks, Abreu always brings on-base capabilities for any team he plays for. Long seen as having declining power, Abreu still hit a decent 20 home runs last year. Combined with his 87 walks, Abreu managed a .352 OBP despite a .255 AVG. This year, with a puny one home run and .244 AVG, Abreu is sitting at an unacceptable .329 SLG. But with a .388 OBP, the 37-year-old Abreu still has some value. In his prime, Abreu showed that 100+ walks and a .300+ AVG could lead to 40+ home runs in a season. But Abreu, the elder of the list, only has walks to show for any value left in his tank and is likely dependant on those walks for still receiving any playing time at all. The end is near, but the walks continue.
T-2nd: Joey Votto, Cincinatti Reds (18)
As a rookie, I read that Dusty Baker told Joey Votto that he should becoming more free-swinging and less patient to develop as a hitter. Fortunately for Votto and all Reds fans, the Canadian ignored the advice and continued to grow as a hitter….his way. Last year Votto had 91 walks, which translated to 37 home runs and a league leading .400 OBP and .600 SLG. Hitting .324 along the way, Votto was intentionally walked eight times. Votto fits the bill perfectly- a hitter that picks his spots, waits for the right pitches to hit and avoids the bad ones to get on base. This year, votto has 18 walks to only 11 strike outs. The knock on some patient hitters is that they take too many called third strikes and often hit for low averages. As part of the core of this top list, Votto is able to not only hit many home runs but keep his average steady to high in the process. Many experts see Votto as having surpassed Albert Pujols as the king of the NL. Based on his numbers-to-date, I have a hard time arguing. Votto’s bread and butter has been his eye at the plate. The 2010 MVP and runner-up 2008 ROY can thank his walks for much of his success in baseball.
4th: Jonny Gomes, Cincinatti Reds (17)
The fourth member of our list is the only real head scratcher in the bunch. While all the other listed hitters are known “walkers”, Gomes has basically come out of nowhere to join the group this year. With a career high of 61 walks in 2006 being far and away his highest season total, few people envisioned Jonny Gomes learning true patience at the age of 30. Perhaps spending time with Votto has helped his transition. But then, his .211 AVG would seem to indicate that he might not be fully paying attention in emulating Votto. At a season total of six home runs, Gomes is on pace to set a career high of 35 home runs. But looking at the full numbers, Gomes is the outlier. Hitting in the standard Nick Swisher mold, Gomes has compensated base hits for walks. With his 18 walks has come 23 strikeouts…which shows that he is missing as many pitches as he is taking. It is not a bad thing that Gomes is taking many walks, but unfortunately he is swinging for the fences and striking out at a Rob Deer frequency with too few base hits. Gomes may continue the walks, but without a steadier number of base hits to match, he may not be as productive as one may think.
T-5th: Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics (16)
Seemingly playing forever, the 25-year-old is entering his 5th season in the bigs. With a .368 career OBP and 110 walks last year (leading the AL), Barton is patience personified. The only knock on Barton has been his low batting average and power. 2011 has done nothing to calm those fears, as Barton is hitting .205 with zero home runs. Along with Gomes, Barton is sacrificing base hits for walks, but not seeing the tangible results that should come along with them. Well…at least Gomes is hitting home runs, I really can’t see what value Barton has other than walks. With ten home runs, Barton is slowly becoming another Travis Buck. As Barton continues to keep first base warm for Chris Carter, I am sad to see that his patience at the plate never translated to greater things for him offensively. Judging on his 17/20 BB/K ratio, Barton clearly is either not patient enough or judging the right pitches to hit. Based on this slow start, it appears the one-time A’s prospect has graduated into a full-fledged suspect.
T-5th: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (16)
One of my favorite hitters in the game, I always wondered what levels he could reach if he could take more walks. Always known for a solid average and home run bat, the answer to my question started to be answered last year. Cabrera set a career high with 89 walks last year and had correspondingly a career high 38 home runs. This year, with a 17/12 BB/K ratio, Cabrera has already five home runs, to go with his .338 AVG, .458 OBP and .610 SLG. These are really…really…really good numbers. Finishing second last year in MVP, the re-born Cabrera has become everything I could have imagined as a hitter. Together with Bautista in the AL and Joey Votto in NL, we are looking at three of the most complete hitters in the game. Taking many walks, hitting many home runs, hitting for a high average and not striking out a ton. Patience at the plate, waiting for the right pitches to hit and taking advantage of those pitches. Hitting perfection.
T-5th: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox (16)
No conversation on walks is complete without including the Greek God of Walks himself, Kevin Youkilis. A .292 career hitter with a lifetime .394 OBP and .497 SLG, Youk fit the mold of the perfect hitter as I discussed above. But something has happened to Youk in 2011. Despite his high walks and decent number of home runs (4), his average sits at .222. Considering that Youk has hit .300+ the last three seasons, I do not expect a huge regression at the age of 32. As long as he stays healthy, Youk should be at .290, .390 and 25 home runs. That’s just how steady Youk is. But given his career low average this year, I actually suspect there may be an injury concern. I do not see Youk turning into Jonny Gomes overnight. Everything seems to even out in the long run and over the course of the season, the real Youk should emerge. Walks will always be there, but the rest of the game should follow as well. But even if he remains slumping, as Bobby Abreu and Daric Barton have shown, at least taking walks brings some contribution to the table. But unlike those two, at least Youk can still swing a power stick. Walks truly begin and end with Youk.
Thank you for reading today’s feature on walks and the hitters who take them. While we all have theories on the subject, think of all the best all around hitters of all time and take a look at their walk totals. While there may have been many home run kings with low averages or hit kings with poor power, take a look at the best all around hitters and see how many times they walked. Then tell me what you think about the value of the combination of power and patience and if you now subscribe to this theory. I certainly hope that you do.
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MLB Opening Day Preview: Schedule and Pitching Previews
MLB reports: With the 2011 MLB season about to commence, literally hours away at this moment- my thoughts continue to centre on the Holy Grail: Opening Day. This year, there are 12 teams playing on Thursday March 31st with the remaining teams playing the next day. For each MLB fan rooting for their respective team, there are 15 different opening day games that will be the focal point for them. Regardless of the city you live in or the team you root for, the first game of the year is the most exciting. It is time to shake the snow off your boots, grab your jersey and tickets and get ready for the start of baseball. For you, the diehards, I present the matchups and probable pitchers for each game.
In my brief analysis of each game, I have taken a slight twist in my analysis. I have decided not to crunch the numbers and take the stats route. To predict the outcomes of games, most stat-heads tend to look at historical opening day numbers for each team, head-to-head records, home/away records, day/night games, etc. This article contains none of the above. I am simply looking at the teams, taking a feel for each lineup and starting pitcher for each team, in performing my discussion. I was planning to post this article in a couple of days but with the enthusiasm of opening day on the horizon, I simply could not wait. Thus MLB fans, I present to you: The breakdown of the MLB Opening Day lineup. (Note: all game times are EST. Starting pitchers are subject to change, especially for injuries. Games may be delayed due to weather conditions)
Thursday March 31, 2011
1) Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals:
1:05pm: Derek Lowe vs. Livian Hernandez
There will be 2 games to start the year on Thursday at 1:05pm and this will be the first game previewed. America’s team, the Braves vs. the Nationals in the Nation’s capital. The Nationals are a nice, young exciting team with a great deal of buzz surrounding the team. Unfortunately, neither of its 2 brightest stars-to-be, Strasburg and Harper will not be a part of the opening day lineup. The Braves have a strong, young team led by Heyward and Freeman. Derek Lowe is an experienced veteran who gets the opening day nod out of respect. Livian Hernandez, on the other hand, is the opening day starter by default. The Nationals fans will be likely going home disappointed on this day, as the Braves will be the victors in a high scoring opener.
2) Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
1:05pm: Justin Verlander vs. C.C. Sabathia
The next opening game of the year to start the year comes from new Yankee Stadium, as 2 historical teams matchup in what should be an excellent pitching matchup. Verlander and Sabathia are 2 of the strongest pitchers in the majors and should go toe-to-toe in this game. While I see the hitters having the advantage in this game while the pitchers break into the season in a strong hitting park, smart money is the Yankees taking the win in their home park.
3) Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
2:10pm: Yovanni Gallardo vs. Edinson Volquez
This game is the one that will catch my attention the most on Thursday. Two of the most exciting offensive teams in the majors, each led by their young strikeout artists. Gallardo and Volquez are cut from the same mold: when on, both are untouchable. When both are having difficulties, they can be time bombs. In the Cincinnati bandbox, I am predicting a high scoring game and a Reds victory. I am a big Gallardo supporter, but I can’t see opening in Cincinnati working well for him.
4) L.A. Angels at Kansas City Royals
4:10pm: Jered Weaver vs. Luke Hochevar
On paper this matchup looks very easy to analyze and in reality, it is. Weaver is a stud hurler for the Angels, a team with strong defense and fairly balanced offense. The Royals have Cabrera and Francouer in the outfield and Hochevar as their “ace”. The Royals fans are fortunate to be opening the season at home. This will be the last of their fortunes on this day as Weaver and the Angels should easily have their way with a Royals team in their final year of rebuilding as respectability begins for them in 2012.
5) San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
4:15pm: Tim Stauffer vs. Chris Carpenter
The young and surprising Padres bring their smoke and mirror show to St. Louis to face the Cards and Chris Carpenter. With one of my hyped young hurlers Matt Latos on the shelf, Tim Stauffer gets the nod for the opener for the Padres. With Adrian Gonzalez in Boston, the Padres will find a difficult time to score runs this year. Stauffer, stellar in the bullpen and spot starts for the Padres in 2010, is now moved into the rotation full time this year. Carpenter, one of the best pitchers in the game, will prove to be stingy at home. Regardless of how many runs the Cardinals score on this day, 2 runs will be enough for the Cardinals to start their year with a win.
6) San Francisco Giants vs. L.A. Dodgers
8:00pm: Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw
This will be a premier matchup, as the World Series champions Giants face their arch-rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Lincecum vs. Kershaw will be a pitching matchup for the ages. I see these pitchers battling all night, with the Dodgers emerging victorious. Opening night will be exciting for the Giants, but the hangover effect on the road leans to an advantage to L.A. on this night.
Friday April 1, 2011
7) Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
1:05pm: Brett Myers vs. Roy Halladay
Day 2 of Opening Day finds Brett Myers coming back to his old stomping grounds to face Halladay and the Phillies. I don’t want to formally go on record and say that Halladay will throw a no-no in the opener…so….let’s just say, I have already said enough. The Phillies fans will be smelling blood and it should not take long for Myers to be shaken as the Phillies hitters have their way with him. Houston goes down quietly and quickly in this one.
8) Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
2:20pm: Kevin Correia vs. Ryan Dempster
Unless you are a Pirates or Cubs fans…I imagine that only the diehards will be watching this one. Kevin Correia in my estimation was a solid pickup for the Pirates and with decent run support will win at least 12 games in Pittsburgh. Dempster, as a steady pitcher for the Cubs will prove to be a worthy adversary. This game will boil down to which team gets the better pitching and my crystal balls sees a Pirates victory in this one.
9) Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
3:05pm: Mark Buehrle vs. Fausto Carmona
In the seemingly never-ending Opening Day matchup between the Chisox and Indians, Buehrle and Carmona face off in Cleveland. As most White Sox fans will attest, Buehrle can be steady at the best of times and extremely frustrating in others. The Opening Day nod was given to Buehrle by Ozzie out of respect and years of service, which is well deserved and applauded. But with the hot hand of Fausto going into the opener, the Indians will squeak out a victory in the opener in one of the few bright moments that will likely shine in Cleveland’s otherwise rebuilding 2011 season.
10) Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
4:05pm: Jon Lester vs. C.J. Wilson
I would have loved to be at this game, as this game features the matchup of two of the best MLB offenses and dynamic left-handed pitchers. This game is being in played Texas, which tends to favor the hitters in the summer…but alas, this game is being played in April. The Red Sox will be buzzing with excitement with the additions of Gonzalez and Crawford, with the home return of Salty. After falling short in the World Series, I foresee the Rangers coming to the game focused and determined. Wilson will be on his game as the Rangers start 2011 with a hard fought victory over the Red Sox in a low scoring game.
11) Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
4:10pm: Ian Kennedy v. Ubaldo Jimenez
One word: Ubaldo. The man with what, a 0.70 ERA in the first half of last year? Ubaldo translates from Spanish to English to mean unhittable. The Rockies take this game in 2 hours or less.
12) Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
7:07pm: Carl Pavano vs. Ricky Romero
My live Opening Day game is in Toronto, Canada as Pavano and the Twins take on Romero and the Jays. Both pitchers come into this game after difficult final outings in their last respective spring training games. I was impressed with the Pavano re-signing with the Twins, as there is an excellent fit for him with this team. Romero, while a young exciting pitcher, is still growing into his role as ace on an up-and-coming Toronto team. While game 2 of this series features the true exciting pitching matchup of Liriano and Drabek, the fans attending opening day will have to settle to watch a decent game which will feature a victorious Twins team.
13) Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
7:10pm: Mark Guthrie vs. David Price
David Price, who will prove to be a serious Cy-Young candidate this year, faces the Orioles at home. My preseason favorites to win the AL East, this game should be a cake walk for the Rays and Price. While the Orioles will have a .500 team this year, Opening Night will not be their night.
14) New York Mets at Florida Marlins
7:10pm: Mike Pelfrey vs. Josh Johnson
Josh Johnson, when healthy, is one of the top pitchers in baseball. Mike Pelfrey, pitching for the bottom-feeder Mets, is like a lamb being led to the slaughter. Playing their final opener in their current home park, the soon-to-be Miami Marlins will give the Mets the first of their likely 90+ losses of the year. Not even close.
15) Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
10:05pm: Felix Hernandez at Trevor Cahill
The final game of the year features the “Moneyball” Oakland A’s hosting King Felix and the Mariners. The A’s will have an exciting young team that has some of the strongest pitching in the AL with an improved offense that should finish 2nd in the AL West, with the chance of a division win. The Mariners, a young team in rebuild mode, have the reigning AL Cy Young winner on the hill. Despite many bumps ahead in their season, I would never bet against King Felix. Opening Day ends with a Mariners victory and the season being completely underway.
As you, I cannot wait for the season to start. Spring training has been exciting and now it is time for the game and stats to count. While March has been about the hitters and pitchers to get their innings and at-bats in, Opening Day means that the games will be played the way they are meant to. It’s a long MLB season, with 162 games ahead for each of our teams. But with all the teams starting with a 0-0 record, everyone has an equal chance of success. With that in mind and knowing the matchups, let’s get ready for 3 more nights of sleep and then it will be time to play ball. Have a great season everyone; I have a feeling 2011 will be one of the best MLB seasons of all time.
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CONQUERING MOTOWN: BRAD PENNY, DETROIT TIGERS
MLB reports: On January 11, 2011, after weeks of speculation in the media the news became official: Brad Penny was officially a Detroit Tiger. The deal was announced as a 1 year, $3 million dollar base salary with an additional $3 million in incentives. The overall reaction was positive- a low risk and high reward situation for both the team and player. With Penny in Motown and spring training a mere days away, let’s review the factors behind this signing and how Brad Penny in 2011 will become the “King of Comerica”.
After the 2010 season came to an end, one of my first projections on the free agent market was that Brad Penny and the Detroit Tigers would be a perfect match. I had the pleasure of corresponding with Brad Penny in early December and asked him directly whether he was considering Detroit for his new home. Brad’s response was, “wearing the blue and orange would be sweet.” Taking a look at the team that he is joining, it is easy to see why Penny could not contain his excitement.
The Tigers enjoyed a relatively strong 2010 campaign and as their roster became molded during the offseason, the future of the Tigers appears to be very bright. The team has a potent offense led by Cabrera, Ordonez, Jackson and newly acquired V-Mart, combined with a rotation led by Verlander, Scherzer and Porcello and a deep bullpen including Valverde, Benoit, Zumaya and Perry. Dombrowski in constructing the team covered off the key components and contention in the AL Central appears to be a lock. Penny as a veteran starter however brings many intangibles to the Tigers that could be the difference maker in a playoff spot.
With young starters Scherzer, Porcello and Coke, Penny serves as a mentor and role model for the young hurlers in learning the finer points of the game. The experiences and successes that Penny has enjoyed in his 11 seasons in the bigs will rub off on the rest of the Tigers’ pitching staff and hopefully take each of them to the next level. As well, Verlander and Penny as potentially #1 and #2 potentially on the staff will bring up the game of the other in competing every 5th day to be the best possible starters that they can be. Lets not kid ourselves, bragging rights in the clubhouse counts and Penny is one of the most focused and intense warriors that you will find in baseball. Comerica, known as a pitching friendly venue, will also prove to benefit Penny as his home field. Brad Penny will bring out the best in his Tigers’ mates and having a solid core of talent on the team will take his own game to the highest levels.
Standing 6’4” and weighing a solid 230 lbs, the 32 year old Oklahoma born Penny has an outstanding baseball resume. 16 win campaigns and All-Star game appearances in 2006 and 2007, a 3rd place Cy Young finish in the NL in 2007 and near perfection in the 2003 World Series title run with the Marlins, with 2 wins in 2 starts with a 2.19 ERA. Penny has played for a total of 5 teams in his career. Penny started off very strong in 2010 for the Cardinals, with a 3-1 record in April and 1.56 ERA. A strained lat muscle ended Penny’s season on May 21st with the pitcher not returning for the rest of the year despite intense rehab and attempts to return. Now healthy and raring to go, the Tigers represent a fresh start and promise for the right-handed pitcher.
Offseason reports have been positive on Brad Penny. He recently got engaged to Karina Smirnoff of “Dancing with the Stars” fame. As well, Brad mentioned to me on several occasions that he was working out hard at the gym and the impression that I got was that Penny is in the best shape of his life coming into the season. Secure in his personal life with the hunger to win, Penny is focused on doing all the right things to make himself successful. His commitment to training and evolution as a pitcher means that at the still young age of 32, Penny has many quality years ahead of him. Observers need to remember that coming off a strain is much different than arm troubles and/or surgery. The bonus from last year’s experience is that Penny will come into camp with a fresh arm and more motivation than ever to reclaim his position as one of the top pitchers in baseball.
The Tigers in signing Brad Penny could very well have secured themselves the #2 pitcher in their rotation as part of the drive to return to the playoffs. Penny’s goal in coming to Detroit is to win and to surely get another World Series title under his belt. At this stage of his career, Brad Penny does not focus on the past and any impressions that people have of him. As my projected 2011 American League comeback player of the year, Brad Penny will simply let his pitching do the talking and the ranking of the Tigers as a team being his only statistical goal.
Good luck on the season Brad Penny and welcome to Motown. Tiger Nation awaits your arrival.
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