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Tuesday July 26, 2011

MLB reports:  The trades are trickling in very slowly thus far as the MLB trade deadline approaches.  First Wilson Betemit was traded last week to the Tigers by the Royals.  Now, Jonny Gomes is off to Washington with cash in exchange for two minor leaguers.  Of most significance is the Gomes move allowing the Reds to call up super prospect Yonder Alonso.  The question is whether the Reds are showcasing their rookie outfielder in a potential blockbuster trade or have called him for good to man left field for the next decade in Cincinnati.

Gomes was the darling of the Reds faithful the past two seasons.  He slugged 20 home runs in 2009, playing in only 98 games.  He followed up with an equally strong campaign last year, blasting 18 home runs with 86 RBIs and 77 runs scored.  The Red had signed Gomes after the 2009 season to a 2-year, $2.55 million contract which looked like a bargain going into it this season.  The 2011 season however, has not been kind to Gomes.  Entering play today, Gomes was batting a paltry .211, with a .336 OBP and .399 SLG.  After receiving every day playing time to start the year, Gomes was relegated to part-time duty as the season progressed.  A change in scenery was in order and with prospect outfielder Yonder Alonso on the horizon, roster space needed to be opened up.

Gomes is now off to Washington to play out the string.  The Nationals, in dire need of an offensive boost, took a chance on the 30-year old Gomes in the hope that he will be able to reclaim some of his past magic with Washington.  The Nationals did not hurt themselves, as Gomes comes at a very reasonable salary which will be subsidized by the Reds and cost the team only two fringe prospects.  Plus as a potential type “B” free agent at the end of the year, the Nationals would receive a compensation draft pick for Gomes if he is offered arbitration by the team and does not accept.  Given Gomes’ offensive potential, it was a low-risk and high-reward move for a team that needed to send a message to its fans that it was serious about contending.  Even though the team is out of the penant race this season, the Nationals needed to remain competitive through September to send the right message to its fanbase.  Jonny Gomes is a step in the right direction in that respect.

The prospects headed to the Reds are pitcher Christopher Manno and outfielder Bill Rhinehart.  Manno, a 38th round pick of the Nationals back in 2009 and then again in the 26th round in 2010 has shined since joining the organization.  The 22-year old Manno, a 6’3″ left-handed pitcher, has a 1.47 ERA over 2 seasons in the lower minors, with 13 saves, only 32 hits given up in 61.1 IP and 25/98 BB/K.  Rhinehart, 26-years of age, was drafted in the 11th round in 2007.  Having made it all the way to AAA in 2010, Rhinehart was playing this season in AA.  Up to the time of this trade yesterday, Rhinehart was enjoying his finest professional season to-date.   Hitting .283 with 21 home runs, 59 RBIs and .963 OPS, Rhinehart was exhibiting great pop in his bat.  But given that neither Manno nor Rhinehart are established major league players and are fringe prospects at best at this point in their careers, the Nationals have to be considered the winner of this trade.  They acquired an established major leaguer without giving up any of their top prospects.

From the Reds’ perspective, the bigger corresponding move is the recall of Yonder Alonso.  With his .296 AVG in AAA with 12 homer runs and .860 OPS, Alonso had little left to prove in the minors.  Scouts have never questioned his bat, as he has displayed the rare combination of power and patience from a very young age, far advanced for his years.  The only knock is his defense, as Alonso is a converted outfielder after having been blocked at first base by perennial MVP candidate Joey Votto.  But all the reports that we have seen is that Alonso has progressed well in learning the outfield to the point that he is considered adequate.  Although he is no danger of ever winning a gold glove, Alonso’s bat more than compensates for any defensive shortcomings.  The debate for the next five days will be whether Alonso is remaining with the Reds or being shipped in a blockbuster.  My gut is that he is staying put.

The two biggest names being linked to the Reds in trade talks is Ubaldo Jimenez of the Rockies and James Shields of the Rays.  Either player would cost a substantial package in return, including possibly Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco, Yasmani Grandal and Yonder Alonso.  The package that I have read for both players would be centered around Alonso and 1-2 more top prospects in the Reds’ organization.  From all indications, the Reds are in on the two superstar hurlers but are attempting to hold onto their top prospects if possible.  In a perfect world for the Reds, they would be able to land Jimenez while only giving up Bailey and Grandal.  But the Rockies, like the Rays, will demand a package that includes Alonso and/or Mesoraco.  A deep price to pay talent but reasonable, considering the upside and the high level of talent that would be coming back to the Reds.

At the end of the day, I believe that the Reds will regret it if they move Alonso.  He is rare hitter that will be an All-Star for many years to come.  While top flight pitching is hard to find and develop, it usually comes at a high price and risk.  Pitchers, given the strain and wear and tear they put on their arms, are the most likely position to be injured and thus come with the highest risks and question marks.  The hope is that the Reds appreciate the talent that they have in Yonder Alonso and continue to cultivate and develop him.  With such a deep pool of talent, they should still be able to make the headliner trade they are shooting for without giving up their top rated young hitter.  They were able to move Gomes to Washington to make room for Alonso, now hopefully we can sit back and watch Alonso combine with Mesoraco, Votto, Phillips and Stubbs to form the newest version of the Big Red Machine.  The Reds are on the verge of putting together something very special.  Hopefully they stick to the plan.

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