MLB reports:  Walks can make you and walks can break you.  That is our motto here at MLB reports.  If there is one stat that I use more than others to measure a player’s performance, its BB…base on balls…walks.  Recently, I featured an article on patient hitters and looked at the hitters that were the MLB leaders in walks.    As part of this post, I reviewed how walks could potentially improve every facet of a hitter’s game and why a good batting eye is a high indicator of future success.  Based on the response to that article, today we will look at the flip side, the MLB pitchers leader board in walks allowed.

In my opinion, there is not many things that are more frustrating about pitchers than those who give up a lot of walks.  Pitchers that walk hitters tend to get themselves in all sorts of trouble and create pressure on themselves as well as their team.  Defenses become on guard to avoid runners advancing and scoring, especially the catcher.  A stolen base, sacrifice and passed ball is all take to turn a walk into a run.  Pitchers that give up walks are often young hard-throwers who have not yet learned to command the ball.  They are throwers who need to develop into pitchers.  A veteran pitchers who throws soft and has no command will rarely survive in baseball (unless he has a lethal knuckleball, ala Tim Wakefield).  Regardless of strike outs, walks in baseball often lead to pitchers beating themselves.  I often tell young hurlers to trust in their stuff and led the hitters beat them.  By walking hitters, a pitcher will simply beat himself in the long run.  Looking at the MLB top 5 list of walks allowed, it is a who’s who list of potential, some success and plenty of frustration.

1)  Edinson Volquez, Reds:  28

The man traded for Josh Hamilton has one of the best power arms in baseball.  After undergoing Tommy John surgery (apparently a must-have these days to become a top pitcher for some reason), Volquez came back strong last year to reclaim his spot on the Reds pitching staff.  With a 28/38 BB/K ratio this year 38 1/3 IP, Volquez despite his 3-1 record is showing why he has unsightly 5.63 ERA.  With almost a hit allowed per inning, Volquez is playing with fire every game and needs to curb the walks to ultimately find long-term success.  Check out Volquez’s breakout year in 2008.  17-6 record with a 3.21 ERA.  Sparkling numbers on the surface.  His 93/206 BB/K ratio that year shows that when Volquez wasn’t striking guys out, he was loading them up on base.  In a hitter’s park like Cincinnati, numbers like that simply will not do.  Volquez has a lifetime 4.47 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.  At 27 years of age, he should be entering his prime year.  But Volquez is sitting on top of our leader board for a reason:  he walks the most hitters compared to any other pitcher in baseball.  That is a high feat and one that he should not be proud of.  A top pitcher can walk maybe 50 hitters a year at most to stay successful.  By walking 93 in 2008, Volquez showed that even in a breakout year he never completely figured it out.  Luck can only be on a person’s side so long and if Volquez does not transition better to being a pitcher, the sub-4.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP will result unfulfilled potential and mediocrity.  The best pitchers in my opinion have figured out that sacrificing strikeouts for ground ball outs can be just as effective and less taxing on their arms and walk rates.  This realization has not occurred yet to Volquez, but that will end up being the difference from becoming the next Pedro Martinez or Ramon Martinez, to a certain degree.

2)  Jonathan Sanchez, Giants:  26

The poster child for walks, Jonathan Sanchez is victim #2 on our list to high walk totals.  After becoming a full-time starter in 2008, Sanchez had his breakout year last year with the Giants.  13-9 record with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP are solid numbers.  His 96/205 BB/K ratio though left a lot to be desired.  Almost a mirror image of Volquez from 2008 if you compare the numbers.  This year, Sanchez sits at 2-2 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 26/47 BB/K ratio in 38 IP.  The best starting pitchers keep their WHIPs down below 1.20 and at most sit at 1.25.  Anything from 1.30 and above is considered a high WHIP, with 1.50 being unacceptable.  Despite his success in 2010, Sanchez still has a 1.38 career WHIP.  When people ask me why trade rumors consistently persist around Sanchez despite being 28 and in his prime, I simply point to the walk rate.  Granted he has unbelievable stuff and is literally untouchable when he is on (as all of the pitchers on this list are).  But one good outing for every three bad outings don’t cut it.  Sanchez throws hard and can successfully strikeout over 200 batters per season if he chooses to.  But with his high walk rate, he will likely suffer the same fate as Volquez.  Men on base can translate into runs allowed, which is unhealthy for a team’s won-loss record and a pitcher’s ERA.  Until Sanchez can cut down on those walks, I will continue to simply see him as a middle-of-the-road pitcher with unfulfilled potential.  If he can cut his walk rate in half, I could see 20 wins in his future.

3)  Kyle Drabek, Jays:  25

Another Tommy John surgery survivor, Drabek is the 2nd of 3 pitchers on this list that lead baseball in walks allowed and had the procedure in their careers.  Is there a correlation?  We will need to find out one day in another post perhaps.  I could see there being a link between the motion that pitchers use to high walk rates and leading to Tommy John surgery.  An interesting little sidenote.  But I digress.  Drabek is the only rookie on this list, as all the other pitchers have experience in the majors.  None of the players on the list are vets yet, although Liriano and Volquez are starting to get there.  In his first full major league campaign, Drabek has a 2-2 record in 2011 with a 4.50 ERA, unsightly 1.63 WHIP and 25/28 BB/K ratio.  With almost a hit allowed per inning as well, Drabek is loading up the bases far too often in getting burnt.  In my estimation, I see Drabek differing from the first two players as follows.  Volquez is wild and needs to learn control.  Sanchez is occasionally wild but often tries to be too perfect in making his pitches and misses his spots.  Drabek quite often is trying be perfect and misses his spots, but otherwise has good control.  Drabek, like Sanchez, simply need to trust their stuff and just go after the hitters.  With nearly un-hittable stuff, Drabek and Sanchez would find they will beat hitters more often than not.  But a walk every inning a half will not cut it in the majors.  Not if Drabek is to fulfill his potential and become the Jays ace one day.  The comparisons between father and son will always continue for Drabek until he makes his own way in the world and I will take a brief look at Doug’s numbers.  The elder Drabek never walked more than 69 hitters in a season and finished with a career WHIP of 1.243, with 155 wins and 3.73 ERA.  He also finished with 1594 career strikeouts, with a season high 177 in his final season in Pittsburgh in 1992.  Kyle has the potential to succeed his dad, as son as better stuff than his dad and the potential for far more punch outs than his dad ever did.  If Drabek Jr. will figure that out one day, the Jays will have their ace for the next decade guaranteed.

T4)  Francisco Liriano, Twins:  24

The fourth member of our list of frustration, Liriano proved this week how utterly frustrating he can be.  Consider this:  Liriano this week threw a no-hitter against the White Sox.  Perhaps a no-hitter by the records, but the rest of his numbers were by no means special.  Liriano threw almost as many balls as strikes, finishing with 6 walks and only 2 strike outs.  These numbers translate to little or no control, but somehow not giving up a hit in otherwise poor pitching performance.  The no-hitter actually is in line with Liriano’s start to the season.  2-4 record, 6.61 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 24/20 BB/K ratio in 2011.  Not only is Liriano now not striking guys out, but he is walking hitters at an astronomical rate.  Liriano had one incredible partial season: In 2006 he had a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 32/144 BB/SO ratio in 121 IP.  Superstar numbers and an ace in the making.  Since then, health issues and poor performance have plagued the hurler for the most part.  The 3rd Tommy John survivor on our list, Liriano appears to have the same Volquez type control issues.  Last season I thought that we had seen a rebound from Liriano.  14-10 record, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 58/201 BB/SO ratio.  Maybe not ace numbers, but very solid pitching numbers.  Believe it or not, Liriano is on pace for approximately 150 walks this season.  Just when he looked like he might be coming around, Liriano regresses.  Then he goes out and throws a no-hitter and nobody knows what to think.  But I will tell you this much, walking hitters is a disaster…while walks and few strike outs means a complete implosion.  I suspect that there may be more to this story than meets the eye, as Liriano may be having health issues that is leading to his poor numbers.  Otherwise, at 27 years of age, Liriano may be continuing his hurler mode rather than becoming a fine-tuned pitcher as is preached by the Twins organization.  The potential is there, but until we know his health situation is better, all bets are off.

T4)  Charlie Morton, Pirates:  24

The last member of our group may not be a Tommy John survivor, but he is a 27 something year old pitcher (only Drabek is the youngster at 23).  Morton is also not on his original team, as he has been traded together with all the members of our list except Sanchez.  It is not a coincidence in my estimation that young hurlers with control issues would be moved by a major league team.  Liriano, Volquez and Morton were all seen as expandable by their respective teams in order to obtain needed talent.  Sanchez has been mentioned in trade whispers for years now and Drabek was moved, but only because the Jays demanded him in the Halladay swap.  Morton was moved in the McLouth deal, with the Braves moving an extra arm and the Pirates stocking up on much-needed pitching talent.  After previous frustrating campaigns, Morton appears to finally be coming around this year.  His 2011 record sits at 4-1 with a sparkling 3.13 ERA.  He is allowed less than a hit per inning, which is promising.  His 24/24 BB/K ratio means that Morton is striking out as many batters as he is walking.  The 1.41 WHIP is the issue with Morton, as it is with all the hurlers on this list.  Morton has a career 1.57 WHIP, so he is improving in the category.  Once he is able to put it together, Morton is able to get major league hitters out.  He may not have the stuff of the other members of this list, but he apparently knows how to get major league hitters out.  While not an ace, developing into a solid #2 or #3 starter could be in his future.  If Morton could limit his walks to approximately 50 in a season, I would love to see what he could do over the course of that year.  I see potential and improvements to warrant hope.  For a pitcher that used to give up over a hit per inning, those numbers are vastly improved.  Time will tell if the rest of his numbers will fall in line.

With young hurlers that have little control, teams do not often know what they are ultimately going to have.  In the time that it takes for a pitcher to learn control, the issue becomes whether a pitcher will be able to get major league hitters out by going for ground ball outs and fly outs while reducing walk totals.  Roy Halladay is the poster child for high strike outs and low walks.  With ERAs in the low 2.00s, WHIPs in the low 1.00s, 20 wins consistently, Halladay is everything that a pitcher strives to be.  But then take a pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine.  One of my faves on the Rays, Sonnanstine rarely walks hitters.  But without striking out many hitters either, Sonnanstine unfortunately does not have the stuff to get major league hitters out on a consistent basis and gets hit hard often.  As a result, Sonnanstine is constantly shuttling between the rotation, bullpen and minors.  If you take Sonnanstine’s control and the stuff of any of the pitchers on this list, you would have Roy Halladay.  Perhaps a touch oversimplified, but you get my message.  For pitchers like Jonathan Sanchez and Kyle Drabek, my advice is just go after and trust your stuff, good things will happen.  For Edinson Volquez and Francisco Liriano, I think a change in mechanics and approach is in order.  I see too much wildness with little change in the future.  If these pitchers do not change their walking ways, the potential that each has will never be fulfilled and talent will end up being wasted.  With the emphasis in baseball on strike outs, pitchers like Volquez and Liriano fall into the trap in concentrating on punch outs and disregarding the finer points of the game.  The emphasis is on pitching, not throwing: I hope these guys understand that one day.  Unfulfilled potential at the end of the day is just failure in my book.  Remember that the next time when you watch these hurlers flirting with trouble in their next starts.

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