Blog Archives
Projecting MLB Sluggers: The Top 5 in 2012
Tuesday November 22, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Accompanied with my projections and analysis, I profile the top-five fantasy baseball sluggers to target for 2012. I encourage your thoughts and feedback!
1. Ryan Braun
2012 Projections: .321 38 HR 119 RBI 108 R 32 SB
Given that he is at the prime of his career having just turned 28 on November 17, Ryan Braun ranks at the top of the list. He is the complete package and enjoyed a 2011 season that had fantasy owners drooling and was named the 2011 NL MVP today! He was a machine in all five of the standard fantasy categories with a .332 average, 33 home runs, 111 RBI’s, 109 runs and 33 SB’s. The exciting thing is that the will only continue to get better. The home run total has the potential to reach 40 and I don’t see reason why Braun won’t steal 30 bases again. Braun is by no means one of the speediest players baseball, but he is truly one of the smartest base runners. He steals at a career success rate of 80% and was only caught 6 times in 2011. Some people wonder about the effect that Prince Fielder’s potential departure will have on Braun, but I am not overly concerned. Braun is truly a special and hall of fame caliber player because he not only possesses all of the physical tools, but also is one of the game’s smartest players. He continually makes adjustments and just has such an impressive knowledge of the game that allows him to better utilize his talents than others.
2012 Projections: .312 39 HR 120 RBI 117 R 12 SB
Albert Pujols has been the best fantasy player in baseball since he emerged onto scene in 2001. Ten Ruth-like seasons later, the slugger might find himself in a new uniform. Furthermore, his somewhat “down” season in 2011 has caused concern for many fantasy owners. But before we expect an A-rod-like decline, lets take a closer look at the numbers. Through the Cardinal’s first 54 games, Pujols batted .257 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI. That means in the team final 108 games, which included the time missed with the wrist injury, he batted .322 with 29 home runs and 71 RBI’s. That is the Pujols that we have all been accustomed to over the last decade. I will not go into detail explaining just how good Pujols has been throughout his career because you should already know by now. Last year was the first season he did not put up .300 30 HR and 100 RBI. He missed this feat by one RBI and one point of average, in a season that included an uncharacteristic 50 game stretch (contract issues?). I expect Pujols to be back in St. Louis next season, and all though he well on the back nine of his career, he is still too good and has a lot left in the tank. Expect the usual numbers, the type that he continued to put up despite his slow start to the season in 2011.
2012 Projections: .336 34 HR 122 RBI 109 R 2 SB
Did you know that Miguel Cabrera is only 28 years old? I sure didn’t. He has been an offensive force for almost a decade. In my mind, he is the game’s best pure hitter and will only continue to get better. He managed to have another elite season in 2011, despite all the controversy and off the field issues he had to deal with. He continues to improve at the plate and BB right is on the incline while his K rate declines. For these reasons, and his career .317 average, there is no reason to not expect his average to hover around .330. He is an average anchor for your lineup that will also exceed 30 HR and 100 RBI’s and runs. The only thing he does not do is steal bases. However, refer to my article last week, Cabrera is the type of average and power anchor that can allow your team roster a space for the one-trick ponies, i.e. Michael Bourn. Overall, just expect more of the same from Cabrera: which means elite production in four of the five standard fantasy categories, average, runs, home runs, and runs batted in.
4. Matt Kemp
2012 Projections: .296 33 HR 108 RBI 103 R 34 SB
At 27 years of age, Matt Kemp is also just entering his prime. He missed a 40/40 season by just one home run and batted .326 and drove in 126 runs, which led to being the runner-up for the 2011 NL MVP award. However, he is easily the most difficult to predict on the list. If I expected him to improve upon or even just repeat his 2011 season, he would be at the top of the list. We simply cannot expect Kemp to be this fantasy-tastic again in 2012. Matt Kemp’s .380 BABIP lead all of major league baseball, however he does hold a career .352 clip, which is tops in baseball. Therefore, expect regression in his batting average in the .290-.300 range. Kemp also strikes out a lot, not like in 2010, but he still struck out in 23 percent of his at bats in 2011. When you are not putting the ball in play at a high rate, there is potential for a lot of volatility. Given his skill set, 2011 was essentially a best-case scenario for Kemp. The other four guys on the list make contact much more consistently and therefore have been more consistent throughout the career and are easier to project forward. Furthermore, I am not encouraged by the line up around built around Kemp. He is still elite, but it is unwise to expect him to repeat 2011. He will come down to earth but still provide across the board value for your team.
5. Joey Votto
2012 Projections: .316 32 HR 112 RBI 115 R 11SB
At 28 years of age, Joey Votto is also in the prime of his career. His 2011 season, with heavy expectations after an MVP season, was a down season for Votto. A down season in which he batted .309 29 HR 103 RBI 8 SB. And if this type of season is Votto’s worst-case scenario, you can live with it! However, given his age and peripheral stats, all signs point to an improved season for Votto in 2012. Votto is a pure hitter who continues to gain better command over strike zone, as his walk rate his increased steadily in each of the four last seasons. The average will always be there for Votto, just a notch below Cabrera. The biggest concern for fantasy owners was the drop in power, form 37 to 29 home runs. However, Votto hit the ball in the air more often in the second half of the season and hit 16 post all-star HR’s in 260 at-bats, compared to just 13 in his 339 at-bats before the break. Furthermore, his .222 ISO was well below his 2010 season (.276) and career average of .237. Therefore, expect him to bounce back to the 35 HR territory with elite average. The true wildcard for Votto is what he does on the basepaths. He stole just 8 bases in 2011, but if he puts a greater emphasis on running like he did in 2010, with 16 stolen bases, then he has the potential to provide extreme five-category value to your roster.
Honorable Mention:
Jacoby Ellsbury: His .230 ISO in 2011 (career .152) explains his surprise 30-home run season. Ellsbury’s peripheral indicate he will be more of a .300 20 HR 80 RBI 40 SB type players, making him a notch below Braun and Kemp.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Stolen Bases: Fantasy Baseball Strategies to Increasing Steals
Thursday November 17, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Of the five categories in standard 5X5 roto leagues, it is SB’s that fantasy owners most commonly have the incorrect approach. In this article I will highlight players to target and avoid in the stolen base department, as well as discuss basic fantasy strategy.
There are certainly several one trick ponies, such as Brett Gardner, Michael Bourn, and Coco Crisp, who provide elite production in this department. However, there are a couple of things you must consider. These types of players, who will hopefully hit for average and contribute to runs, will hurt your team’s HR and RBI performance. Therefore, be sure that you have excess value dispersed throughout the rest of your lineup to compensate. Secondly, you are heavily relying one on player for your production in this category, and as a result an injury can leave your team devastated. Thus, it is essential, particularly in the early rounds, that you find players who do everything, including steal bases. Even 5-10 steals that a player contributes above the position average will give you a significant edge.
A player to target next year, Eric Hosmer, quietly stole 11 bases in 2011. The young left-hander batted .313 with 11 HR and 44 RBI’s in the second half last season. While his still progressing power production puts him the second tier of first baseman, his double-digit stolen base potential makes him intriguing and perhaps underrated. Still, this guy finished the season with 19 home runs and 78 RBI’s in 128 games played. Since there are a slew of first baseman that finished with 30 home runs and 100 RBI, they will likely be targeted before Homer. Therefore, I like Hosmer as a guy who might just as well approach these power numbers but also steal 15 bases. For this same reason, I like Joey Votto over any other first baseman not named Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. While, Adrian and Gonzalez and Prince Fielder might put up higher power numbers and similar batting averages, Joey Votto’s 10 stolen bases will make him significantly more valuable. Albert Pujols is also good for ten stolen bases as well. Only Miguel Cabrera out produces Votto enough in the other four categories to excuse his lack of stolen bases.
Now extend this approach to each position. Dustin Pedroia and his 25-30 stolen bases is more valuable than Robinson Cano and his 5-10 stolen bases, despite the fact Cano finished with 7 more home runs and 25 RBI’s. A player I like at this position if you can afford to take the hit in HR’s and RBI’s is Jemile Weeks, who finished with 22 stolen bases in just 97 games. He will get to play full-time in Oakland, and as long as he is hitting above .290, can be valuable to your roster as a good source of steals. On the decline is Brandon Phillips who has dropped from 25 to 16 to 14 stolen bases the last three seasons. This makes him no longer elite, especially when Ian Kinsler is doing 30/30. An interesting group of players, Kelly Johnson, Danny Espinosa, and Ben Zobrist each his 20 home runs and stole over 15 bases. However, they each struggled with average. Again, take not of your team’s strengths. If you own Votto and a couple of other average anchors, these types of players can be good sources of power and stolen bases at the second base position.
Instead of continuing on and telling you the elite base stealers position by position (you can easily look this up), I will give you my 2012 sleepers and busts.
Stolen Base Sleepers:
Don’t forget that Brett Lawrie’s one-quarter of a season not only put him on pace to hit 36 home runs and 100 RBI’s, but also projected him to finish with 28 stolen bases.
Peter Bourjos made noise at the end of the season and once stole 50 bases in the minor leagues. For the speedy outfielder, it was al
l about getting on base after a 2010 debut in which he batted .204 in 51 games. However, he greatly improved his contact ability, although still needs to improve walk rate, and batted .271 and stole 21 bases for the Angels. He also hit 12 home runs, and has the potential for a productive .280 15 HR 30 SB stat line in 2012.
After stealing 19 bases in 2011, I expect Shane Victorino to reach the 30 mark once again in 2012. It’s not that he didn’t run when he was on base, but his lower than usual BABIP and high than usual ISO (measures true power) simply meant he was not on first base as often as he normally is. With Rollins likely out of Philadelphia, I expect Victorino to ne at the top of the lineup and as aggressive as ever on the base paths.
Keep you eye Cameron Maybin, who stole 40 bases in 137 games for the Padres. As long as he has the chance to play semi-regularly, he is elite in the stolen base category. Furthermore, he appears to be approaching double-digit home run output as well, although he is only a career .255 hitter.
Monitor where Coco Crisp ends up in 2012. I loved him at Oakland in 2011 because he was one of the better hitters on the team (sadly) and at times batted third, but also batted lead off and in the second spot. In addition to leading the American League in steals, he had decent contributions in other categories (8 HR and 54 RBI) compared to some of the other stolen base leaders.
Dexter Fowler is a name to remember because he is simply one of the fastest players in baseball. However, he only stole 12 and 13 bases during the last two years, respectively. He was also caught an alarming 25 times. If he can learn to run on the base paths, he can be elite in this category. It is possible for major leaguers to learn the art of stealing bases. Look at Adam Jones, who was 12/16 on the base paths in 2011 after a 7/14 2010. I expect Jones, who is approaching a contract season, to come closer to 20 steals in 2012.
Speedsters to avoid? Juan Pierre. He really contributes in no other categories and is getting slower, getting caught 17 times in 44 chances in 2011. Furthermore, I do not expect any team to give him the 639 at bats that the White Sox foolishly provided him. Sadly, Ichiro Suzuki is clearly on the decline and appears to be a shell of his former elite self. The same is true with Bobby Abreu.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
2012 MLB Hitting Prospects to Target in Fantasy Baseball
Monday November 7, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Looking ahead to 2012, there are several potential rookies and young players that have the ability to provide value in your fantasy league, particularly as keepers.
A name to keep on your radar is Michael Taylor, an outfielder in the Oakland Athletics system. Not only do I like Taylor’s potential 5-category skill set, but with Coco Crisp, Hideki Matsui, Josh Willingham, and David DeJesus all entering free agency, he will likely be given the opportunity to play in 2012. Listed at 6’5” and 255 pounds, Taylor has displayed good, but not great, power in the minor leagues. However, he jumped from 6 home runs in 464 at bat during his 2010 AAA season to 16 home runs in 349 at bats in 2011. The 2011 season was cut short due to injury, but Taylor displayed the run producing ability he will need to be successful in the major leagues. Furthermore, he is a good base runner and has the potential to be a 20/20 player. With that said, the .816 OPS he posted in last year in AAA is a little worrisome, as he will face much more challenging pitching in the major leagues. All in all, he is an intriguing prospect due to the fact that he should have the opportunity to play in Oakland and has potential to perform in all five fantasy categories.
Taylor’s AAA teammate, Chris Carter, is another name to keep your eye on. Carter has potential to be an elite home run hitter. He has hit a total of 170 home runs in 754 minor league games. However, he will need to improve shorten his strike zone and make more contact to succeed in the major leagues. Despite mashing the home runs, he has not shown much progress in improving his plate discipline during his long minor league career. But in 2012, Carter will most likely be given a shot and could therefore be a cheap source of power in fantasy leagues. However, Carter’s high strike out totals and minor league track record likens him to the “Quadruple-A” type of players, a la Kila Ka’aihue.
A young player that excites me for 2012 is Dayan Viciedo, who garnered a little buzz after being called up in 2011. Although only 22 years old and still very raw, Viciedo has hit over 20 home runs in each of has past two years at AAA. He is also improved his plate discipline and is likely to be given the opportunity to play in 2012 with Juan Pierre unlikely to return.
Across town in Chicago, Brett Jackson is an intriguing player for the Chicago Cubs organization. Splitting time between AA and AA, he hit 20 home runs and stole 21 bases in 2012. Furthermore, he improved after his call up to AAA, where he his .297 in 67 games. He also showed improved plate discipline at the higher level with a 15.2% walk percentage, although he will need to cut down on his strikeout rate. He is still young and still has power to develop, but he is already skilled enough to join a weak Cubs outfield rotation.
The last name that I will discuss is one that you should already be familiar with, Mike Trout. There has been a lot of hype around Trout, who hit 11 home runs and stole bases in just 91 games for the Angels AA team in 2011. Trout was named the Minor League Players of the Year and even had success in limited time with the Angles in 2011. Although the Angels outfield is crowded, he is guaranteed to find his way into the rotation and should eventually play everyday. He has the potential to be elite in all five categories, starting in 2012. He is surely to be drafted in your league, and with all of the existing hype, he could perhaps be overvalued. Just remember that the hype is warranted and he is a future fantasy monster, although it remains to be seen how much of his potential he taps into in 2012.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Evaluating Strikeout Pitchers For Your 2012 Fantasy Baseball Team
Tuesday October 18, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Depending on the type of fantasy league, high strikeout pitchers hold varying degrees of value. In 5 X 5 Roto League’s, strikeouts are crucial as they represent one of the five pitching categories. Furthermore, strikeout ratios are indicative of a pitcher’s future success. Needless to say, the more a pitcher misses the bat of a hitter, the more primed he is to retire batters. As I touched upon this subject a few weeks ago in my piece about the value of setup men, today, I shift the focus to starting pitchers who look to finish atop the strikeout rankings in 2012.
In 2011, the 25-year-old right-hander busted onto the scene with a 7-3 record, 3.68 ERA, and 1.21 WHIP in 141.2 innings. However, the real value he provided was the 169 strikeouts, a 10.74 K/9 ratio that ranked him first among starting pitchers. Undoubtedly, Beachy will be a highly valued player entering the 2012 season, yet I still think many owners still undervalue him. Many owners will be impressed, but not wowed by his ERA and WHIP numbers, which are right on par with Jamie Garcia’s 3.56 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. However, Garcia struck out just 156 batters in 194 innings. If pitchers are not contributing to the strikeout category, he needs to be VERY good in the others, and it will be difficult for a player to do so with out the ability to miss bats. This helps explains Garcia jump in ERA from 2.70 in 2010 to 3.56 in 2011.
Beachy’s strikeout ratio indicates that his rookie season was no fluke. He has the ability to miss bats and therefore should not see a regression in his numbers. He was consistent throughout the year and actually struck out more batters as the season progressed. Furthermore, his .300 BAPIP indicates that he was not a product of good fortune. He is the real deal and has potential to provide terrific value in all give pitching categories and looks to be among the elite in strikeouts. Beachy’s more well-known teammate, Tommy Hanson, it also a pitcher who is among the games best strikeout pitchers – improving his rate in each of his three seasons in the major leagues.
Here are some lesser-known players that had a strikeout ratio higher than that of C.C. Sabathia, Felix Hernandez and David Price:
Brandon Morrow (10.19 K/9)
Cory Luebke (9.92 K/9)
Anibal Sanchez 9.26 K/9)
Jonathan Sanchez (9.06 K/9)
Matt Garza (8.95 K/9)
Gio Gonzalez (8.78 K/9)
Although these pitchers are by no means fantasy aces, their fantasy value is often hidden and undiscovered by owners. They are often lumped into the same category as players with similar ERA and WHIP numbers (e.g. Mark Buehrle). However, their potential for strikeouts can give an owner valuable extra points. While no means must-start players, if you use the Garza, Gonzalez’s, Morrows, etc in favorable matchups, don’t be surprised to see them produce ‘five category’ Lincecum-like starts. Just don’t start them against the better half of the league’s top offensive teams. It is all about finding the edges, and strikeouts are a category that many owners are first to ignore. Therefore, I strongly suggest you fill your tougher innings with such players that can help you finish at the top of this category. If a player is putting up strong ERA and WHIP numbers without the strikes, it is more likely to be a fluke. Therefore, to be safe and to finish atop the K category, target the players who show the best ability to make major league hitters swing and miss.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
How to Value and Manage Catchers on Your MLB Fantasy Team
Monday October 3, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): The catching position is one that is often the most mismanaged by fantasy owners. A very thin position, it is difficult to find value from catchers in the deeper leagues. Furthermore, you take a big risk dedicating a high pick or significant auction money at a very injury prone position, as 2011 owners Joe Mauer and Buster Posey owners know all too well. Even a healthy catcher will sit for a significant amount of games each year due to the wear and tear of the position.
For these reasons, I generally advise to not overpay for a player at this position. But with that said, for the right price, the top batch of catchers can provide you significant value. However, too many times before we have seen significant year yo year decline from players at this position. You simply should not rely on production at this position. Spend your bucks elsewhere. Based on matchups and playing time, it is possible to scrap together value for next to nothing.
For example, Chris Iannetta and his .238 average, 51 runs, 14 HR, and 55 RBI, disappointed many fantasy owners in 2011. But a closer look at the numbers shows the true value he provides. We all know the effect that Coors Field has on hitters, but for Iannetta it is staggering. His 2011 home numbers look like this: .301 batting average, 10 HR, 39 RBI and 3 SB.
If you were to only start Iannetta at home in 2011, you would great numbers all across the board for half of the season. You are essentially getting 50% of Brian McCann for way less than 50% of the price. The discrepancy in his splits is dramatic that it makes him so easy to use as an owner. Only start him at home and never think about starting him on the road!
Now, for the days that Iannetta is on the road, there are plenty of options in the bottom half of the rankings that would be available on the waiver wire. Let’s pick someone like Miguel Olivo. His 19 HR and 62 RBI provide great production from the thin catching position, but his .224 average leaves a lot to be desired. However, an owner is much better equipped to muster this average if the number of at bats are cut in half. If you combine this morph of Olivo and Iannetta, you are looking at these types of numbers:
.260-.270, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 6 SB.
These numbers are essentially right on par with Brian McCann’s 2011 line (.270, 24HR, 71RBI, 3SB). McCann is a consensus top five
catcher, while Iannetta and Olivo are viewed outside of the top-15. You are essentially creating McCann for a lot cheaper and inherent risk that comes with investing money in the catching position. Furthermore, there are more options out there if you think Olivo’s average is too much of a killer. It all depends on your team’s needs and what categories you are chasing. If you are more concerned about average, guys like Nick Hundley and Jonathan Lucroy might be more attractive options. Looking for power and RBI production? Names such as J.P. Arencibia, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki (there are even more) are all useful under the right circumstances.
For example, look at Geovany Soto’s numbers against left-handed pitching in 2011: .296 average, 7 HR and 15 RBI in just 98 at-bats. This is in stark contrast to his .207 average and 10 home runs in 323 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
The point is that it’s easy to piece together production at this position. There are several players who contribute in the HR and RBI categories and you can get the most out of them by maximizing their strengths based on matchups and ballparks.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Javier Vazquez Behind the Numbers: The Fantasy Value of Pitchers
Monday September 26, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): After a historically bad start to the regular season, Javier Vazquez has finished the 2011 campaign on a hot streak to the delight of many fantasy owners who found the 35-year-old right-hander available on the waiver wire. He is ending his season and career with a bang, not allowing a run in his last 25 innings pitched and winning five consecutive starts. His 7 wins, 2.16 ERA, and 87 strikeouts in 87 innings make him one of the strongest starting pitching assets in all of baseball post all-star break.
Going into the season I actually grossly overpaid for Vazquez and ultimately traded him away. I continued to monitor the pitcher because I knew what he was capable of doing on the mound. However, sitting at 5-8 with a 5.23 ERA at the all-star break, Javy lived up to the criticisms that he has endured throughout his entire career. On paper, Vazquez appears to be one of the most consistent pitchers of the past decade, earning double-digit victories in each of the past twelve seasons. Returning to the NL East, many people, myself included, had high expectations for Vazquez in 2011. After all, he is just two years removed his finest season as a professional with 15 wins and 2.87 ERA for the Atlanta Braves. But the guy is far from consistent. Season to season, month to month, and from start to start you never knew which Javy Vazquez you were going to get – just ask one of his former managers, Ozzie Guillen. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3602173
New York Yankee fans are also all too familiar with Vazquez as well, as his stints in the Bronx in both 2004 and 2009 are reminiscent of A.J. Burnett’s 2011 campaign. There is no question that Vazquez is streaky and frustrating to own, for both real and fantasy managers.
However, Vazquez finished 2011, and he says his career, with one of the strongest stretches of his career – conveniently down the stretch for savvy fantasy owners.
So what took Vazquez so long to get his act together in 2011? The answer is actually very clear and it has everything to do with his velocity. To start the season, his average fastball velocity started around 86 miles per hour but steadily increased and finally reached the 92-93 miles per hour range for the second half of the season. http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=801&position=P&pitch=FA
As his fastball velocity increased, so did the frequency in which Vazquez used it. While it’s rare that a 35-year-old regains velocity, it is
evident that it was the key to his success. The gain in velocity, coupled with a low-pressure situation in Florida in the NL East, allowed Vazquez to morph back into the pitcher he was in 2009. Although some players rely on velocity more than others, it certainly is a major factor in a pitcher’s success. Just look at Ubaldo Jimenez. With an average fastball velocity of 96mph in 2010, he put together a 19-8 season with a 2.88 ERA. In 2011, his velocity dipped to 93.9 mph and Ublado had trouble getting hitters out, compiling a 10-12 record with an ugly 4.47 ERA. Unless Ubaldo can have a Javy-like resurgence in velocity, he will be forced to improve his secondary pitches and will probably never again be a Cy Young contender.
This gets me to the point of the article. Many fantasy owners tend to ride players who are on hot streaks. But how can you predict these hot streaks when luck plays such a big factor? There needs to be an identifier for success, because all too many times we see players burst onto the scene with a few good starts but soon fizzle away. Sample size is very important, and Vazquez has demonstrated that he is capable of success. It was the gain in velocity and Vazquez’s placement in the NL East that made him a second half commodity. Therefore, before you trust a guy who is “hot”, be sure you do your research and find out why. Otherwise, you are simply gambling. With starting pitchers look for the factors that might contribute to a pitcher’s success: velocity, pitch selection, league and division, and ballpark.
Next week I will take this even further and discuss FIP and XFIP. If you play fantasy baseball and don’t know about www.fangraphs.com, do yourself a favor and familiarize yourself with the site and sabermetrics. This will give you a more accurate depiction of how a pitcher is throwing the ball and better indicators for future success, thereby eliminating the guessing games and searching for “hot streaks.”
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
MLB 2011 DL: Injury Updates
MLB reports: To answer many of our readers inquiries, here is an update on some of the casualties and wounded in the world of baseball and when each player is expected to return from the disabled list:
Phil Hughes: Yankees
Hughes went on the 15 day disabled list in mid-April with a “dead arm” and has not returned since. On April 28th Hughes received a cortisone shot and reports have indicated that his shoulder has responded well. The timetable for Hughes to return to the mound is 6-8 weeks, which would put him sometime into July. Hughes has not started throwing yet but has visited specialists who have ruled out surgery at this point. With a dead arm type injury, it is not always easy to predict where the future lies. Justin Verlander went through such an episode in his career and has come back stronger than ever. The fear though is that the velocity will not return and surgery could be lurking in the background. Until Hughes begins throwing and regains his velocity, Yankees fans will continue to huddle in prayer and hope for Hughes to come back and reclaim his 2010 form this year.
Carlos Guillen: Tigers
Guillen has been bothered by a sore left knee and out of action since mid-March and going on the 15 day DL. Reports have indicated that Guillen is taking ground balls, but no other baseball activities at this point. The original prognosis of mid-May does not appear likely, with an end of the month or early June return a possibility. With his wonky surgically repaired knee, Guillen will likely be a DH at best if and when he returns to the Tigers lineup. There is a possibility of a relapse here, so the Tigers are progressing forward without Guillen and any contributions this year will be considered a bonus.
Joe Mauer: Twins
The $184 million dollar man is off to a dreadful start in 2011, the first season of his monster contract. After having surgery on his knee in the off-season, Mauer has been bothered by leg weakness all season. Mauer has started hitting and throwing, but his return is up in the air. Once considered to be the greatest catcher in baseball, talk has already started about a position change in his future. After moving prospect Wilson Ramos, the Twins cannot be happy about the state of Mauer’s health. Like the other members of this list thus far, Mauer’s return date is unknown at this point. With the Twins off to a terrible start this season, there is much pressure to get Mauer into the lineup to get the team going. But considering the investment in the catcher, the team will likely be cautious and continue to bring him along slowly in the fear that further damage could result in rushing him. Expect Mauer back sometime in June likely, but his catching days appear to coming to an end in the near future unfortunately.
Josh Hamilton: Rangers
After breaking a bone in his right arm from a home plate collision early in the season, Hamilton is nearing his return to the Rangers lineup. Hamilton is taking swings and should hopefully ready soon for a couple of minor league rehab appearances. I would expect Hamilton back in the Rangers lineup in the next two weeks if all goes well. The brittle Hamilton continues to endure bad luck in the health department, with the Rangers sorely needing a healthy Hamilton in order to contend in the AL West.
Chien-Ming Wang: Nationals
After 2 missed seasons, Wang continues to try to come back from a torn
shoulder capsule and pitch once again in the majors. After breaking his right foot in 2008, Wang ended up injuring his shoulder and has not returned to pitch in a professional game since. Still rehabbing in the Nationals system, it appears unlikely that we will see Wang pitch again. Fans still hope that the former back-to-back 19 game winner can find health and pitch again, but after a prolonged absence, the window of opportunity continues to close further every week/month that goes by.
Johan Santana: Mets
Another torn shoulder capsule survivor, Santana underwent his surgery last September. Reports have indicated a possible July return for Santana, which appear to be optimistic at best. With a similar injury to Wang, there is no guarantees of when Santana and what condition he will be in. Good news in that Santana is throwing off a mound and flat ground and reported no setbacks to date. But with these types of injuries, relapses are always a possibility. If the Mets flounder this year as expected, the smart advice is to rest Santana and bring him along slowly, with a 2012 return being the better bet. Only time will tell if Santana will return and reclaim his spot as one of the top starting pitchers in baseball. At this point, I would not be counting on it.
Chase Utley: Phillies
With injuries all around in baseball, few have been more anxious than the
disappearance of Chase Utley. With the Phillies offense built around Utley and Howard, a long-term absence by the second baseman was seen as damaging by the Phillies faithful. Talk at the start of the season was a possible September return by Utley, based on the knee injury. Philadelphia got a great shot in the arm when Utley’s rehab progressed so well to the point that he is already DHing this week in minor league rehab games, with a possible return by the end of the month. Far ahead of schedule, the hope is that Utley is fully recovered and will be strong for the remainder of the season. Utley’s story is one of the few bright spots in our long list of injuries in this report.
Scott Rolen: Reds
Placed on the DL at the end of April with a strained shoulder, Rolen is no stranger to baseball injuries. But being the professional he is, Rolen also works very hard and keeps himself in strong game shape to attempt to avoid long-term absences. Rolen has been taking batting practice this week and has also been running the bases and participating in fielding drills. No timetable on his return at this point, but based on his advanced baseball activity, I would expect a return by the end of this month.
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E-MAILBAG: Ask the Reports, Wednesday May 11th
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We will be compiling a list of your questions from our e-mailbag and posting the responses on Wednesdays.
Wednesday May 11, 2011
Q: Where do you see the Boston Red Sox finishing this season in the standings? From Jake, Boston
MLB reports: My crystal ball in March said that the Rays would win the AL East, with the Red Sox finishing second in the division and taking the AL Wild Card. I have no reason to deviate from my prediction thus far. Despite the strength of the Yankees, the Red Sox have so much talent that several hot streaks are in store. When playoff tickets go on sale, go ahead and order for the opening round at least.
Q: Fantasy question: Should I dump Jorge Posada for Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Wilson Ramos, Ryan Hanigan, or Hank Conger? I probably should have done something Monday, as Posada’s .151 AVG is killing my team. From Bonzi, Parts Unknown
MLB reports: I take it that your league counts average, based on your e-mail. Turning 40 this summer, Posada has definitely seen better days. He does have 6 home runs and 14 RBIs, but his numbers overall are fantasy suicide. I can’t believe Iannetta and Doumit are still available in your league. If so, grab them in that order. Iannetta is 28, plays in Colorado, has 5 home runs, 13 RBIs, .398 OBP, .494 SLG. His .250 AVG is nothing to write home about, but as the #1 catcher for the Rockies, Iannetta has the biggest upside. Doumit will be traded to a contender at some point likely but while he has shown a steady bat this season, he is always an injury risk. If Iannetta is not available though, I like Doumit over Posada. Ramos has been a nice player for the Nationals but is still young and likely won’t play at this level all season. I would trust Posada over him. Hanigan and Conger are nice replacement bats for injury but as part-time players offer little upside at this point. If either was starting, they would still rank below Posada this season for me.
Q:Why do teams not pitch Jose Bautista away, away, away ALL the time? Why even try to challenge him inside? From Garrett, Michigan
MLB reports: It is not that simple Garrett, as Bautista has become
such a dangerous hitter that there are not many pitches that he does not get to. Judging by his 100 walks last year, which will be higher this year, Bautista has a great eye at the plate. Based on the damage that he can do, I frankly don’t understand why teams just don’t walk him 4-5 times every game. Being the strongest offensive option currently in the Jays lineup by a country-mile, Bautista is a long-ball threat every at-bat and taking the bat out of his hands likely will be best at minimizing the damage. With not many healthy hitters in the Jays lineup that are threats to drive him in, I agree that opposing pitchers should not give Bautista much to hit…and in my opinion, not even give him the option at all.
Q: Fantasy Trade Evaluation: Aramis Ramirez & Alfonso Soriano for Jason Bay & Brandon McCarthy. Who’s winning? Who’s losing? I have Ryan Zimmerman on DL. I am giving up Bay and McCarthy. From Mike, Brooklyn
MLB reports: This one is a toughy. I wanted to say Bay and McCarthy to keep, but I can’t do it. My factors are as follows. McCarthy is 27 and has great upside. But he is injury prone and cannot be counted on to stay healthy. He can literally drop at a moment’s notice. Plus he is 1-3, despite a 3.26 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. With little wins potential and health concerns, this trade really boils down to Bay for Ramirez and Soriano for me.
Bay has been a disaster since coming to the Mets. Poor production and concussions issues have done him in. With 6 home runs last year and 1 home run this year with a .213 AVG, 7/19 BB/K ratio, Bay is regretting his decision to leave Boston for New York. Bay is already 32 and his window of opportunity is closing. Ramirez and Soriano are no spring chickens either. Ramirez though has a .286 AVG with 14 RBIs, despite only 1 home run and .718 OPS. Soriano has a league leading 11 home runs, 21 RBIs and 18 Runs, with a whopping .550 SLG despite an unsightly .242 AVG and .270 OBP. If you can stomach some of the warts shown by the 35-year-old Soriano and 32-year-old Ramirez, they will still provide much of the stats and comfort that Bay and McCarthy won’t. In some ways this is a headache for headache trade, but by making the deal, you are getting the likely higher returns. Go for it.
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MLB Pitchers and Walks: Flirting with Trouble
MLB reports: Walks can make you and walks can break you. That is our motto here at MLB reports. If there is one stat that I use more than others to measure a player’s performance, its BB…base on balls…walks. Recently, I featured an article on patient hitters and looked at the hitters that were the MLB leaders in walks. As part of this post, I reviewed how walks could potentially improve every facet of a hitter’s game and why a good batting eye is a high indicator of future success. Based on the response to that article, today we will look at the flip side, the MLB pitchers leader board in walks allowed.
In my opinion, there is not many things that are more frustrating about pitchers than those who give up a lot of walks. Pitchers that walk hitters tend to get themselves in all sorts of trouble and create pressure on themselves as well as their team. Defenses become on guard to avoid runners advancing and scoring, especially the catcher. A stolen base, sacrifice and passed ball is all take to turn a walk into a run. Pitchers that give up walks are often young hard-throwers who have not yet learned to command the ball. They are throwers who need to develop into pitchers. A veteran pitchers who throws soft and has no command will rarely survive in baseball (unless he has a lethal knuckleball, ala Tim Wakefield). Regardless of strike outs, walks in baseball often lead to pitchers beating themselves. I often tell young hurlers to trust in their stuff and led the hitters beat them. By walking hitters, a pitcher will simply beat himself in the long run. Looking at the MLB top 5 list of walks allowed, it is a who’s who list of potential, some success and plenty of frustration.
1) Edinson Volquez, Reds: 28
The man traded for Josh Hamilton has one of the best power arms in baseball. After undergoing Tommy John surgery (apparently a must-have these days to become a top pitcher for some reason), Volquez came back strong last year to reclaim his spot on the Reds pitching staff. With a 28/38 BB/K ratio this year 38 1/3 IP, Volquez despite his 3-1 record is showing why he has unsightly 5.63 ERA. With almost a hit allowed per inning, Volquez is playing with fire every game and needs to curb the walks to ultimately find long-term success. Check out Volquez’s breakout year in 2008. 17-6 record with a 3.21 ERA. Sparkling numbers on the surface. His 93/206 BB/K ratio that year shows that when Volquez wasn’t striking guys out, he was loading them up on base. In a hitter’s park like Cincinnati, numbers like that simply will not do. Volquez has a lifetime 4.47 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. At 27 years of age, he should be entering his prime year. But Volquez is sitting on top of our leader board for a reason: he walks the most hitters compared to any other pitcher in baseball. That is a high feat and one that he should not be proud of. A top pitcher can walk maybe 50 hitters a year at most to stay successful. By walking 93 in 2008, Volquez showed that even in a breakout year he never completely figured it out. Luck can only be on a person’s side so long and if Volquez does not transition better to being a pitcher, the sub-4.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP will result unfulfilled potential and mediocrity. The best pitchers in my opinion have figured out that sacrificing strikeouts for ground ball outs can be just as effective and less taxing on their arms and walk rates. This realization has not occurred yet to Volquez, but that will end up being the difference from becoming the next Pedro Martinez or Ramon Martinez, to a certain degree.
2) Jonathan Sanchez, Giants: 26
The poster child for walks, Jonathan Sanchez is victim #2 on our list to high walk totals. After becoming a full-time starter in 2008, Sanchez had his breakout year last year with the Giants. 13-9 record with a 3.07 ERA and 1.23 WHIP are solid numbers. His 96/205 BB/K ratio though left a lot to be desired. Almost a mirror image of Volquez from 2008 if you compare the numbers. This year, Sanchez sits at 2-2 with a 3.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 26/47 BB/K ratio in 38 IP. The best starting pitchers keep their WHIPs down below 1.20 and at most sit at 1.25. Anything from 1.30 and above is considered a high WHIP, with 1.50 being unacceptable. Despite his success in 2010, Sanchez still has a 1.38 career WHIP. When people ask me why trade rumors consistently persist around Sanchez despite being 28 and in his prime, I simply point to the walk rate. Granted he has unbelievable stuff and is literally untouchable when he is on (as all of the pitchers on this list are). But one good outing for every three bad outings don’t cut it. Sanchez throws hard and can successfully strikeout over 200 batters per season if he chooses to. But with his high walk rate, he will likely suffer the same fate as Volquez. Men on base can translate into runs allowed, which is unhealthy for a team’s won-loss record and a pitcher’s ERA. Until Sanchez can cut down on those walks, I will continue to simply see him as a middle-of-the-road pitcher with unfulfilled potential. If he can cut his walk rate in half, I could see 20 wins in his future.
3) Kyle Drabek, Jays: 25
Another Tommy John surgery survivor, Drabek is the 2nd of 3 pitchers on this list that lead baseball in walks allowed and had the procedure in their careers. Is there a correlation? We will need to find out one day in another post perhaps. I could see there being a link between the motion that pitchers use to high walk rates and leading to Tommy John surgery. An interesting little sidenote. But I digress. Drabek is the only rookie on this list, as all the other pitchers have experience in the majors. None of the players on the list are vets yet, although Liriano and Volquez are starting to get there. In his first full major league campaign, Drabek has a 2-2 record in 2011 with a 4.50 ERA, unsightly 1.63 WHIP and 25/28 BB/K ratio. With almost a hit allowed per inning as well, Drabek is loading up the bases far too often in getting burnt. In my estimation, I see Drabek differing from the first two players as follows. Volquez is wild and needs to learn control. Sanchez is occasionally wild but often tries to be too perfect in making his pitches and misses his spots. Drabek quite often is trying be perfect and misses his spots, but otherwise has good control. Drabek, like Sanchez, simply need to trust their stuff and just go after the hitters. With nearly un-hittable stuff, Drabek and Sanchez would find they will beat hitters more often than not. But a walk every inning a half will not cut it in the majors. Not if Drabek is to fulfill his potential and become the Jays ace one day. The comparisons between father and son will always continue for Drabek until he makes his own way in the world and I will take a brief look at Doug’s numbers. The elder Drabek never walked more than 69 hitters in a season and finished with a career WHIP of 1.243, with 155 wins and 3.73 ERA. He also finished with 1594 career strikeouts, with a season high 177 in his final season in Pittsburgh in 1992. Kyle has the potential to succeed his dad, as son as better stuff than his dad and the potential for far more punch outs than his dad ever did. If Drabek Jr. will figure that out one day, the Jays will have their ace for the next decade guaranteed.
T4) Francisco Liriano, Twins: 24
The fourth member of our list of frustration, Liriano proved this week how utterly frustrating he can be. Consider this: Liriano this week threw a no-hitter against the White Sox. Perhaps a no-hitter by the records, but the rest of his numbers were by no means special. Liriano threw almost as many balls as strikes, finishing with 6 walks and only 2 strike outs. These numbers translate to little or no control, but somehow not giving up a hit in otherwise poor pitching performance. The no-hitter actually is in line with Liriano’s start to the season. 2-4 record, 6.61 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 24/20 BB/K ratio in 2011. Not only is Liriano now not striking guys out, but he is walking hitters at an astronomical rate. Liriano had one incredible partial season: In 2006 he had a 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 32/144 BB/SO ratio in 121 IP. Superstar numbers and an ace in the making. Since then, health issues and poor performance have plagued the hurler for the most part. The 3rd Tommy John survivor on our list, Liriano appears to have the same Volquez type control issues. Last season I thought that we had seen a rebound from Liriano. 14-10 record, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 58/201 BB/SO ratio. Maybe not ace numbers, but very solid pitching numbers. Believe it or not, Liriano is on pace for approximately 150 walks this season. Just when he looked like he might be coming around, Liriano regresses. Then he goes out and throws a no-hitter and nobody knows what to think. But I will tell you this much, walking hitters is a disaster…while walks and few strike outs means a complete implosion. I suspect that there may be more to this story than meets the eye, as Liriano may be having health issues that is leading to his poor numbers. Otherwise, at 27 years of age, Liriano may be continuing his hurler mode rather than becoming a fine-tuned pitcher as is preached by the Twins organization. The potential is there, but until we know his health situation is better, all bets are off.
T4) Charlie Morton, Pirates: 24
The last member of our group may not be a Tommy John survivor, but he is a 27 something year old pitcher (only Drabek is the youngster at 23). Morton is also not on his original team, as he has been traded together with all the members of our list except Sanchez. It is not a coincidence in my estimation that young hurlers with control issues would be moved by a major league team. Liriano, Volquez and Morton were all seen as expandable by their respective teams in order to obtain needed talent. Sanchez has been mentioned in trade whispers for years now and Drabek was moved, but only because the Jays demanded him in the Halladay swap. Morton was moved in the McLouth deal, with the Braves moving an extra arm and the Pirates stocking up on much-needed pitching talent. After previous frustrating campaigns, Morton appears to finally be coming around this year. His 2011 record sits at 4-1 with a sparkling 3.13 ERA. He is allowed less than a hit per inning, which is promising. His 24/24 BB/K ratio means that Morton is striking out as many batters as he is walking. The 1.41 WHIP is the issue with Morton, as it is with all the hurlers on this list. Morton has a career 1.57 WHIP, so he is improving in the category. Once he is able to put it together, Morton is able to get major league hitters out. He may not have the stuff of the other members of this list, but he apparently knows how to get major league hitters out. While not an ace, developing into a solid #2 or #3 starter could be in his future. If Morton could limit his walks to approximately 50 in a season, I would love to see what he could do over the course of that year. I see potential and improvements to warrant hope. For a pitcher that used to give up over a hit per inning, those numbers are vastly improved. Time will tell if the rest of his numbers will fall in line.
With young hurlers that have little control, teams do not often know what they are ultimately going to have. In the time that it takes for a pitcher to learn control, the issue becomes whether a pitcher will be able to get major league hitters out by going for ground ball outs and fly outs while reducing walk totals. Roy Halladay is the poster child for high strike outs and low walks. With ERAs in the low 2.00s, WHIPs in the low 1.00s, 20 wins consistently, Halladay is everything that a pitcher strives to be. But then take a pitchers like Andy Sonnanstine. One of my faves on the Rays, Sonnanstine rarely walks hitters. But without striking out many hitters either, Sonnanstine unfortunately does not have the stuff to get major league hitters out on a consistent basis and gets hit hard often. As a result, Sonnanstine is constantly shuttling between the rotation, bullpen and minors. If you take Sonnanstine’s control and the stuff of any of the pitchers on this list, you would have Roy Halladay. Perhaps a touch oversimplified, but you get my message. For pitchers like Jonathan Sanchez and Kyle Drabek, my advice is just go after and trust your stuff, good things will happen. For Edinson Volquez and Francisco Liriano, I think a change in mechanics and approach is in order. I see too much wildness with little change in the future. If these pitchers do not change their walking ways, the potential that each has will never be fulfilled and talent will end up being wasted. With the emphasis in baseball on strike outs, pitchers like Volquez and Liriano fall into the trap in concentrating on punch outs and disregarding the finer points of the game. The emphasis is on pitching, not throwing: I hope these guys understand that one day. Unfulfilled potential at the end of the day is just failure in my book. Remember that the next time when you watch these hurlers flirting with trouble in their next starts.
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E-MAILBAG: Ask the Reports, Wednesday April 27th
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We will be compiling a list of your questions from our e-mailbag and posting the responses on Wednesdays.
Wednesday April 27, 2011
Q: Fantasy (and real) question: who’s the best bet this year: Jurrjens, Pineda, or Masterson? Thanks! From B.E.F., DC
MLB reports: Great question…especially mixing in the fantasy baseball and reality. While these two spheres are sometimes contradictory, when it comes to pitchers, they are often the same. A pitcher who does well for a fantasy team is likely the same pitcher you will want for your real-life team. Based on this year’s needs, my pick is Jurrjens. Simple matter is that he is still 25 but has been around for a while, so he has the experience. After an injury plagued 2010, he has come back strong this year (although delayed). Jurrjens has the strongest offense out of the bunch with the Braves (which has been inconsistent out of the gate but strongest bet). Also Jurrjens is based in the NL which is better for pitchers and has the strongest bullpen out of the three, so wins will be easier to come by.
Masterson, while a personal favorite of mine is the third pick. He is currently pitching over his head and will come back down to earth with the rest of the Indians squad. Masterson also usually walks too many guys (1.50 WHIP in 2010) and I do not trust him just yet. The smoke and mirror show will be over soon…believe it. Pineda is the darling of the bunch and while a future fantasy ace, is 22 in his first season. On a weak Mariners squad, run support and bullpen efficiency will be hard to come by. Pineda will also be on a strict pitch count and as he goes through the league a few more times, expect hitters to get a better handle on him. For the surest results, go with Jurrjens. He carries the most injury risk but the securest and most likely results this year.
Q: Fantasy question: Gio Gonzalez or Phil Humber as last SP in 10 team H2H? Gio has had last two bad nights against LAA and BOS. Humber=Almost No-Hit. From Richard, Roanoke
MLB reports: Richard…Richard…Richard. Philip Humber is 28, a Tommy John survivor and a prospect that has never panned out. He has had a nice little stretch for the ChiSox, but the sample size is too small. Gio at 25 is blossoming into a fantasy ace on a young Oakland pitching squad. Gonzalez has the track record of development and has already been solid with 2 wins and a 2.70 ERA. If the question is for a roster spot, you know my answer: Gonzalez, without thinking . If you own both and need to know who to play, then go with Gonzalez and make Humber pitch well for 3-5 more starts before inserting him. Always go with the proven guy over the shaky flavor of the month. Gonzalez by a landslide.
Q: Did you see Zack Britton dominate the Red Sox tonight? 1st O’s rookie to win 4 games in April. Simply Filthy. From Matt, Charm City
MLB reports: Not bad for a 3rd round pick in 2006. Britton has been brilliant to start the year, almost unhittable to go along with his 4 wins and 2.84 ERA. The whole complexion of the Orioles changed when Showalter took over and they are only going to go up. This is the only division in baseball where every team will finish with a record of .500 or better. The Orioles have some really talented young pitchers and none is brighter than Britton. Continue to dance up in Charm City, the sky is the limit for this talented hurler.
Q: How much do I hate baseball after benching Ian *(&(^*^ Kennedy against Cliff Lee and the Phillies today? From Tim, Huntsville
MLB reports: First of all, you cannot hate baseball. That is impossible. What you are saying, you are saying out of anger. I will take that into account and let you off the hook. This time. But seriously, there is no worse feeling in fantasy baseball than having a player put up a monster game while sitting on your bench and you do not get the stats. Or is there? How about when a player lays an egg and digs you into a hole? That is actually worse. You did the right thing Tim. If you had other options, you were smart by sitting Kennedy against Lee and the Phillies. Its called playing the percentages. Cliff Lee was more than likely going to get the win and with the Phillies strong offense, there was a high chance of Ian Kennedy getting smacked around. But that is not how it turned out at the end…but that is ok. Kennedy had a 3.80 ERA last year and still has a 4.02 ERA this year. He pitches to a low WHIP by giving up few hits but he walks many guys. On a Diamondbacks team that will struggle for runs and wins for their pitchers, Kennedy will be flip-flopping out of your lineup all year. Don’t sweat it…be happy he wasn’t in there destroying your pitching stats. It’s a long fantasy season. One strong pitching performance never made or broke a team. Keep playing the percentages, as everything will even out at the end.
Q: Hey how are things tonight for you? Fantasy question. Morrow or Scherzer for rest of season? From Shane, Tampa
MLB reports: Doing really well, thanks for asking Shane. You picked two of my favorite pitchers to compare, well done. Plus pitchers on two of my top picked teams, which is even better. Scherzer is 4-0 with a 3.19 ERA this year. He strikes out a lot of hitters but tend to have a WHIP on the higher side, in this case 1.484 in 2011. Morrow can be almost unhittable when he is on and had the 178 strikeouts last year. The answer is Scherzer and it is not even close. Scherzer pitches for a stronger contender in a pitcher’s park. Scherzer has stronger experience and health record. Morrow is a constant injury concern and is always a tweak away from the DL. While both pitchers can be dreadful when off, Morrow pitches in a home run hitters haven called the Rogers Centre. Both have great run support and good pens behind them. But Morrow has to pitch against the AL East all season and while the Royals and Indians have been hot, they will prove to be the inferior teams in the long run. Scherzer is a strong bet at 15-18 wins and continue his development in Detroit. Morrow is a great pitcher, but too much of a risk. Scherzer…done deal.
Q: Your thoughts on Peter Bourjos? Thinking of adding him as back-up for that broad Delmon Young and when/if Jerry Sands struggles too much. From Maury, Boston.
MLB reports: Sands will have his share of struggles, no question. He is young and playing in a pitcher’s park. That being said, Sands also has the most support with Ethier and Kemp hitting around him. Delmon Young is not a pick of mine and despite his strong numbers last year, I still see him as a player that will never develop into a superstar. Young has no patience at the plate and I believe his hack and slash ways will catch up with him. That being said, I am not too high on Bourjos either. His numbers last year were simply brutal and I simply do not see an upside. If you have room on your bench though, definitely grab Bourjos as his 4 triples and 2 home runs would look good in any fantasy lineup right now. Bourjos and Young packed together could prove to be really good trade bait for any fantasy novice in your league. Try to acquire Alex Gordon immediately if you can, the window on him is closing fast for the few fantasy owners out there that may try to sell “high” on him, not understanding that his run is for real. But if you can’t pull off that move, play out Bourjos and Sands and try to keep Young stapled to your bench unless he starts to get hot at the plate. Sands is the guy I would most trust out of the three and I would continue to search for steadier solutions for the rest of the season to avoid any more stress.
Q: There have been so many catchers that have retired and went on to become great managers. Out of the current catchers and ones who have retired the last few years, who do you think will become a manager one day and be great? From Larry (#1 Fan)
MLB reports: Great question from a great fan. You are right, catchers tend to make the best managers and coaches based on their experience and knowledge of the game. From Joe Girardi, Tony Pena, Larry Parrish, Mike Scoscia…the list goes on…and on. Dave Duncan is an interesting case as he is one of the few non-pitchers who is a pitching coaches, as a former catcher. It makes sense that a catcher that would know best to run a pitching squad, so its surprising more teams don’t go that way.
There are many great managers on the horizon. Some that come to my mind are Jason Varitek, Jason Kendall, John Buck, Gregg Zaun, Gary Carter, Mike Lieberthal, Mike LaValliere, Mike Matheny, Jason LaRue and Craig Biggio (started as a catcher). When I think of a good manager, I think of a player that had a good grasp of the game, played hard, knows the fundamentals and was a leader on and off the field. All of these catchers have strong abilities and are solid picks for me to return to the dugout one day as a manager. Varitek, Zaun and LaRue really stick out to me as guys that were leaders and gave everything they had on the field. While capable of taking on any roles in baseball (Zaun is currently a broadcaster for the Jays), I could see all three becoming managers in some form one day. With the amount of knowledge they have to give, I believe that future teams will greatly benefit from instruction and leadership from any of the aforementioned individuals. A great question Larry, thank you for sharing.
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Patient Hitters: The Leaders in Walks
MLB reports: As many of you know from my past articles and tweets, the one quality I look for the most in hitters is patience: the ability to take walks. The art of the base on balls was exemplified somewhat in the “moneyball” Oakland approach and has been adopted by the Red Sox team in particular, among others. People often ask me why I value hitters that take walks so highly. Very simply, walks in my mind lead often to the overall development of every facet of a hitters game. A hitter that has good judgement of the strike zone and take walks should get on base at a high rate. A hitter that takes many walks is more likely to judge better pitches to hit, which should increase their number of hits and home runs correspondingly. When I used to play fantasy baseball, I often looked for batters with high walk totals in filling out my rosters. These hitters would win championships for me, as they do often for baseball teams in real life.
Patient hitters have a high value in baseball, this has become a fact of life. Putting this theory to the test, let’s take a look at which batters sit among the leader board in walks as of today. It will be interesting to see which of these players are considered top players, historically and coming into their own as of today. Has the number of walks taken this year helped each player in other statistical categories? Are each of these players better hitters for having many walks? The results may surprise you.
1st: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (19)
Last year 100 walks went hand-in-hand with a league leading 54 home runs. This year, Bautista leads the league with 19 walks and 8 home runs. For a man who hit .260 last year, the high walk has remained while the average has jumped to a league leading .364. Interesting to note, none of Batista’s walks have been intentional. Bautista for me is the poster boy of how patience and power are inter-twined. You almost cannot have one without the other. For anyone that doubts the value of walks, go look up Bautista’s stats again…they will astound you.
T-2nd: Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (18)
Bobby Abreu, along with Youkilis, Adam Dunn and Swisher, is a resident in the patience club. With 1,360 career walks, Abreu always brings on-base capabilities for any team he plays for. Long seen as having declining power, Abreu still hit a decent 20 home runs last year. Combined with his 87 walks, Abreu managed a .352 OBP despite a .255 AVG. This year, with a puny one home run and .244 AVG, Abreu is sitting at an unacceptable .329 SLG. But with a .388 OBP, the 37-year-old Abreu still has some value. In his prime, Abreu showed that 100+ walks and a .300+ AVG could lead to 40+ home runs in a season. But Abreu, the elder of the list, only has walks to show for any value left in his tank and is likely dependant on those walks for still receiving any playing time at all. The end is near, but the walks continue.
T-2nd: Joey Votto, Cincinatti Reds (18)
As a rookie, I read that Dusty Baker told Joey Votto that he should becoming more free-swinging and less patient to develop as a hitter. Fortunately for Votto and all Reds fans, the Canadian ignored the advice and continued to grow as a hitter….his way. Last year Votto had 91 walks, which translated to 37 home runs and a league leading .400 OBP and .600 SLG. Hitting .324 along the way, Votto was intentionally walked eight times. Votto fits the bill perfectly- a hitter that picks his spots, waits for the right pitches to hit and avoids the bad ones to get on base. This year, votto has 18 walks to only 11 strike outs. The knock on some patient hitters is that they take too many called third strikes and often hit for low averages. As part of the core of this top list, Votto is able to not only hit many home runs but keep his average steady to high in the process. Many experts see Votto as having surpassed Albert Pujols as the king of the NL. Based on his numbers-to-date, I have a hard time arguing. Votto’s bread and butter has been his eye at the plate. The 2010 MVP and runner-up 2008 ROY can thank his walks for much of his success in baseball.
4th: Jonny Gomes, Cincinatti Reds (17)
The fourth member of our list is the only real head scratcher in the bunch. While all the other listed hitters are known “walkers”, Gomes has basically come out of nowhere to join the group this year. With a career high of 61 walks in 2006 being far and away his highest season total, few people envisioned Jonny Gomes learning true patience at the age of 30. Perhaps spending time with Votto has helped his transition. But then, his .211 AVG would seem to indicate that he might not be fully paying attention in emulating Votto. At a season total of six home runs, Gomes is on pace to set a career high of 35 home runs. But looking at the full numbers, Gomes is the outlier. Hitting in the standard Nick Swisher mold, Gomes has compensated base hits for walks. With his 18 walks has come 23 strikeouts…which shows that he is missing as many pitches as he is taking. It is not a bad thing that Gomes is taking many walks, but unfortunately he is swinging for the fences and striking out at a Rob Deer frequency with too few base hits. Gomes may continue the walks, but without a steadier number of base hits to match, he may not be as productive as one may think.
T-5th: Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics (16)
Seemingly playing forever, the 25-year-old is entering his 5th season in the bigs. With a .368 career OBP and 110 walks last year (leading the AL), Barton is patience personified. The only knock on Barton has been his low batting average and power. 2011 has done nothing to calm those fears, as Barton is hitting .205 with zero home runs. Along with Gomes, Barton is sacrificing base hits for walks, but not seeing the tangible results that should come along with them. Well…at least Gomes is hitting home runs, I really can’t see what value Barton has other than walks. With ten home runs, Barton is slowly becoming another Travis Buck. As Barton continues to keep first base warm for Chris Carter, I am sad to see that his patience at the plate never translated to greater things for him offensively. Judging on his 17/20 BB/K ratio, Barton clearly is either not patient enough or judging the right pitches to hit. Based on this slow start, it appears the one-time A’s prospect has graduated into a full-fledged suspect.
T-5th: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (16)
One of my favorite hitters in the game, I always wondered what levels he could reach if he could take more walks. Always known for a solid average and home run bat, the answer to my question started to be answered last year. Cabrera set a career high with 89 walks last year and had correspondingly a career high 38 home runs. This year, with a 17/12 BB/K ratio, Cabrera has already five home runs, to go with his .338 AVG, .458 OBP and .610 SLG. These are really…really…really good numbers. Finishing second last year in MVP, the re-born Cabrera has become everything I could have imagined as a hitter. Together with Bautista in the AL and Joey Votto in NL, we are looking at three of the most complete hitters in the game. Taking many walks, hitting many home runs, hitting for a high average and not striking out a ton. Patience at the plate, waiting for the right pitches to hit and taking advantage of those pitches. Hitting perfection.
T-5th: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox (16)
No conversation on walks is complete without including the Greek God of Walks himself, Kevin Youkilis. A .292 career hitter with a lifetime .394 OBP and .497 SLG, Youk fit the mold of the perfect hitter as I discussed above. But something has happened to Youk in 2011. Despite his high walks and decent number of home runs (4), his average sits at .222. Considering that Youk has hit .300+ the last three seasons, I do not expect a huge regression at the age of 32. As long as he stays healthy, Youk should be at .290, .390 and 25 home runs. That’s just how steady Youk is. But given his career low average this year, I actually suspect there may be an injury concern. I do not see Youk turning into Jonny Gomes overnight. Everything seems to even out in the long run and over the course of the season, the real Youk should emerge. Walks will always be there, but the rest of the game should follow as well. But even if he remains slumping, as Bobby Abreu and Daric Barton have shown, at least taking walks brings some contribution to the table. But unlike those two, at least Youk can still swing a power stick. Walks truly begin and end with Youk.
Thank you for reading today’s feature on walks and the hitters who take them. While we all have theories on the subject, think of all the best all around hitters of all time and take a look at their walk totals. While there may have been many home run kings with low averages or hit kings with poor power, take a look at the best all around hitters and see how many times they walked. Then tell me what you think about the value of the combination of power and patience and if you now subscribe to this theory. I certainly hope that you do.
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Top Home Run Hitters: MLB 2011
MLB reports: For pure fun today, I wanted to scan the major league baseball leaderboard and evaluate the top home run hitters of 2011. While this list can change at a moment’s notice, looking at the board with over three weeks into the season is always fun. At least my idea of fun. I originally planned to make a top ten list, but that was going to prove to be futile. Six hitters sit at the top of the list with seven home runs a piece and eight hitters tied for second with six home runs each. Let’s take a close look at the top fourteen then and see which hitters are likely to remain on the list and which have caught lightning in a bottle for a few games.
First Place – Seven Home Runs
Jose Bautista: Toronto Blue Jays
After 54 home runs last year, is anyone still waiting for a slowdown? With 19 walks already, .359 AVG and 1.256 OPS, Bautista continues to build on the momentum of last year. Living up to his large contract extension signed in the off-season, it appears that the new Jose Bautista is here to stay. At 30 years of age, Bautista is showing that he has enough juice in his bat to approach another 50 home runs this year.
Adrian Beltre: Texas Rangers
Another big contract signing entering 2011, Beltre has made good on the promise of his bat hitting in Arlington. Inconsistent throughout his career, analysts have often said that if healthy and playing in a hitters park, the sky is the limit. Beltre hit 48 home runs back in 2004 playing for the Dodgers and have never approached those numbers since. At 32 and playing in one of the best hitters park in a stacked lineup, big numbers could come his way. I see somewhat of a regression, but 30-35 home runs is a safe bet at this point.
Ryan Braun: Milwaukee Brewers
The Hebrew Hammer has 128 career home runs in four seasons going into 2011. He has Prince Fielder in the lineup with him. At 27, Braun is this generation’s Ralph Kiner and Hank Greenberg. No slowdowns ahead for this Brewer as he shoots for his first 40+ home run season. The 2007 NL Rookie of the Year is a future MVP and his time could come this year.
Curtis Granderson: New York Yankees
The only surprise in the top home run hitters category, Granderson has always shown glimpses of brilliance but injuries and slumps have slowed his path. The 20/20/20/20 season in 2007 was impressive, as was the career high 30 home runs that Granderson hit in 2009 for the Tigers. Even though he missed 26 games last year to injury, he still was able to amass 24 home runs. Now healthy and with the short porch in Yankee stadium, Granderson has a good chance at equaling and besting his career best power numbers. Given the Yankees lineup as well, I would not count him out. Granderson is unlikely to remain among the league leaders in bombs, but a solid 30+ home run season is definitely in order.
Albert Pujols: St. Louis Cardinals
Coming into this season, the Great Pujols hit a Ruthian 408 home runs in 10 seasons. Truly our generation’s Babe Ruth, Pujols has to be considered one of the best home run hitters of all time. With an .806 OPS, Pujols hasn’t even begun to heat up. Pujols has Holliday and a resurging Lance Berkman for protection and going into his first free agency year, expect legendary numbers by seasons end. This is Albert Pujols we are talking about…I do not have to say anything else.
Troy Tulowitzki: Colorado Rockies
Still only 26 years old, Tulowitzki is working towards becoming the best player in baseball. Missing significant time in 2008 and 2010, Tulo still has 99 career home runs going into today. Playing in the home run haven called Colorado, all Tulo has to do is to stay healthy to succeed. As this is an odd year, history is shown that he will likely play close to a full season. His career high of 32 home runs is well within reach and I can see a 40+ home run season this year. The talent and circumstances are all there…all he needs is health.
Second Place: Six Home Runs
Lance Berkman: St. Louis Cardinals
Going into the second tier of top home run hitters, we find some resurgent players, surprises and expected studs. Berkman was an uncertainty coming into season. The 35-year-old Big Puma has seen 40+ home run seasons in his career. 2010 was an injury shortened season and after getting traded to the Yankees and faltering in New York, critics began to write him off. I was a big fan of his move to St. Louis, back to the NL Central and the opportunity to play with Pujols and Holliday. Defense aside, Berkman’s 9 walks and league leading .725 SLG show that the Puma is back. With the occasional days off and prime spot in the lineup, 35 home runs is my predicted total for this superstar.
Jonny Gomes: Cincinnati Reds
The man has seem to been around forever but is actually only 30 years old. Gomes has seen several 20+ home run seasons in his career, including 18 in 2010 playing in a career high 148 games. With 18 walks, Gomes has disguised his poor .212 avg this season with a .386 OBP and .530 SLG. The owner of a lifetime .332 OBP and .463 SLG, Gomes will get a fair amount of playing time this year. While he is not the second coming of Adam Dunn, Gomes has clearly found a home in Cincinnati. His lower average and 19 strikeouts concern me at this point as he will need to become a steadier hitter to continue to receive steady playing time. Part of the surprises of this list, expect a return to form in order for Gomes. Despite lofty totals, I cannot foresee a 30 home run season coming, even though he plays in that ballpark. He is too streaky and Dusty Baker is not patient enough to stick with him.
Howie Kendrick: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Not one of my favorite players to cover, I have always soured on Kendrick for his inability to take walks. With a career high of 10 home runs (twice), low stolen bases totals and inability to consistently get on base, I have rarely seen the upside of Kendrick at the plate. This season, apparently as light switch has gone off inside his head or bat, as Kendrick is well on his way to shattering his previous power numbers and already has 10 walks on the season (last year he set a career high of 28). Does a leopard change its spots…or does a Kendrick learn patience? I will believe it when I see it. I have watched Kendrick for too long to be sold on what I have seen thus far. if he is still able to keep up this approach going into July, maybe I will cut him some slack. Until then, I expect to see Kendrick off this list by mid-June at the latest. A nice run, but a run is all this is at the end of the day in my opinion.
Russell Martin: New York Yankees
The second Yankee on our list has found a new home and new lease on life in the Bronx. Martin had a career high 19 home runs in 2007 playing for the Dodgers, earning a Silver Slugger award that year. With an OPS of 1.099, Martin is the early favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. Playing nearly every game this season and enjoying a healthy hip, Martin apparently has renewed drive and focus that was previously lacking in Los Angeles. At 28 years old and continuing our trend of young superstars on the list, all Martin really has to do is stay healthy this year. In the loaded Yankees lineup and with the short porch, Martin has a chance at 25 home runs this year.
Jorge Posada: New York Yankees
Yankee #3 is on the downside of his career, or so we are led to believe. The 39-year-old Posada is a full-time DH for the full-time in his career. While his .153 AVG and .711 OPS, his 6 home runs (of his 9 total hits) is outstanding. Too many factors are against Posada staying on the leaderboard. Health is always a concern and despite no longer playing the field, any tweaks at this point could send the elderly Posada to the DL. Further, his numbers are showing that when he is not hitting home runs, he is simply not hitting or getting on base. As Posada continues his best Rob Deer impersonation, I don’t foresee great things ahead for the future hall of famer, nearing the end of an outstanding career.
Carlos Quentin: Chicago White Sox
Both Chicago teams are represented, with the powerful Quentin starting off for the White Sox. The likely pick for MVP had he stayed healthy in 2008, Quentin has a laundry list of injuries and ailments his entire career. But when healthy, Quentin is always a home run threat. With a 1.023 OPS and having Rios, Dunn, Konerko, Ramirez and Beckham in the lineup for protection, Quentin looks to best his career high of 36 home runs in 2008. I am sitting on the fence on this one. The potential is there, but so are the injuries. Expect at least a couple of trips to the disabled list but assuming reasonable health, I will take 30+ home runs for Carlos. The Adam Dunn factor cannot be discounted, as he will prove to be great protection for Quentin all season long.
Alfonso Soriano: Chicago Cubs
A 20+ home run hitter for nine straight seasons, Soriano was written off for dead by many experts, yours truly included. 2009 was a dismal season for Soriano and although he had a steady return last year, at the age of 35 and with knee issues, little was expected from the talented Dominican. Despite his .513 SLG this season, there are several reasons to expect a continuing decline for Soriano. His BB/K rate this year is an abysmal 3/21, as his .244 AVG and .272 OBP. If you ask me, I see Soriano slowly decaying into the next Yuniesky Betancourt. Soriano is still a lock for another 20+ home run year but with the rest of his game on such a rapid decline, don’t expect much else. If the Cubs have any other options, I expect Soriano to see more time on the bench or even a trade in order. But at his salary, I cannot foresee any team taking a chance.
Mark Teixeira: New York Yankees
The last player on our list and Yankee #4, Teixeira clearly did not get the memo that we are in April and not August. A notorious slow starter, Teixeira is already up to twelve walks, .402 OBP and .621 SLG. For the 31-year-old Teixeira who has 281 career home runs, his career high of 43 home runs in 2005 could be broken. Considering that Teixeira has the ability to hit 10-12 home runs per month in the summer, I see a clear breakout year for this superstar first baseman. The Yankees went out and got him for a reason. In addition to his gold glove defense, I am smelling a possible silver slugger and MVP award in 2011.
What is the future of this list? Hard to tell without a crystal ball, as so many factors can arise. Injuries, playing time, lineup position…things can change. But a trend is clear from the early season home run leaders. Most are in the 27-30 year-old age bracket and are proven home run hitters in their careers. I expect most of the above hitters to remain on the list, with some surprises to fade away and new players to emerge. Other superstars, like Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez will join this list very soon. But even in the short span of three weeks into the season, it is clear that even with only a few games played, the home run hitting cream is already rising to the top.
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MLB Closers Report 2011: Who is in, Who is out
MLB reports: I get several messages a day on the state of the closers in major league baseball. Questions asking me which players have a closing job, which are about to lose their job and which players are most likely to get save opportunities. In my fantasy baseball days, I used to call it fishing for closers on the waiver wire: waiting for a closer to underperform and/or get injured and lose their job and immediately pick up the heir-apparent to the throne. How are the thirty major league teams doing in the closer department? Let’s take a closer look at each team and find out:
1) New York Yankees: Mariano Rivera
With seven saves in eight opportunities and a 1.93 ERA, Mo is as automatic as they come. Even at his advanced age, Mariano is a #1 fantasy closer, if not the top closer. Rafael Soriano is the next in-line, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
2) Colorado Rockies: Houston Street
Although health is often a concern with Street, seven saves in seven opportunities with a 2.03 ERA is not. Street has really come into his own in Colorado and as long as he can stay healthy, he is becoming nearly automatic out on the mound. Add in fourteen strikeouts and Street is as dangerous as they come. Lidstrom has been spectacular as well to start the year, but with health and performance issues surrounding him in the past, Lidstrom at best is a filler in case of an injury to Street. A solid #2, Lidstrom will form a solid 1-2 punch with Street all season long (on the field and likely on the DL at some point).
3) Atlanta Braves: Craig Kimbrel
The youngsters debate should be over. Six saves in seven opportunities and a 0.96 ERA. 2/14 BB/K ratio. Kimbrel is clearly the man in Atlanta. While
Venters is very talented and the next in line should Kimbrel falter, the rope for Kimbrel grows by the day. Atlanta appears to have found its closer for the next decade.
4) Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez
With the hot start of the Indians, Perez has been enjoying the ride. Six saves in seven opportunities and a 2.25 ERA. One area for concern: four strikeouts in eight innings pitched. Although Perez is becoming craftier on the mound, low strikeouts for a closer generally leads to disaster. The Indians have some decent arms in the pen, including Rafael Perez. But the Perez of choice is Chris.
5) San Diego Padres: Heath Bell
The second coming of Trevor Hoffman, Bell is a perfect five for five in save opportunities with a 1.00 ERA. Having Bell on the Padres is like driving a brand new Mercedes while living in a bachelor apartment on the wrong side of the town. An unnecessary luxury in many observers’ estimation. Beware that a hot Bell will have trade rumors surround him all summer long. The Padres have literally 4-5 closing options in the pen, so this situation is far from settled if Bell is dealt. I could see Neshek, Qualls, Gregerson and Adams all getting their shot. For now Bell is a top five closer unless he leaves San Diego. If I had to watch one reliever it would be Neshek, who has come back from injury and could claim the job in the event he is called upon.
6) Los Angeles Dodgers: Jonathan Broxton
Broxton somehow is a perfect five for five in saves but with a 5.19 ERA, the end is likely coming near. The hope for many baseball analysts, including my own, is that Broxton can turn it around and reclaim his form. Kuo, once healthy, is the likely pick to take over the role. My dark horse pick is Mike MacDougal, the veteran who has extensive closing experience. A 1.13 ERA for MacDougal is outstanding, but his 5/6 BB/K ratio is nothing to write home about. Guerrier may also get a look, but Kuo is the consensus pick to take over at some point. I would like to sit here and guarantee that Broxton will recover and return to form, but I can’t promise that. It could happen, but with each passing rocky outing, even I am starting to have my doubts. My plan would be to remove Broxton from the role and let him work out in his kinks. In the interim I would insert MacDougal to steady the ship and then re-insert Broxton in July. That would be my plan, but not necessarily the same script for the Dodgers. Keep a look out as this mess is far from settled.
7) Philadelphia Phillies: Jose Contreras (Breaking News: Now Ryan Madson)
Running an eight inning scoreless run, a perfect five for five in saves opportunities with nine strikeouts, Contreras has become the man in Philadelphia. But running a close second is Ryan Madson, a 1.00 ERA and 2/10 BB/K ratio. The long-term solution is Madson and any hint of a Contreras downturn will insert Madson in the role. I expect this to happen any week now and once Madson becomes the closer, he should keep it until Papelbon joins the team next year (yes, it will happen). Please do not say Brad Lidge though, that story has been written and re-written too many times. Injuries and production problems is the story of Lidge. Hopefully the Phillies are smart and do not go down that road again. The moral of the story: Contreras today, Madson soon and Papelbon next year.
(P.S. As I am writing this, Contreras has been sent to Philadelphia for an exam and is on the DL. Ryan Madson is the closer, funny how quickly things can turn)
8) Kyle Farnsworth: Tampa Bay Rays
Another closer with a perfect five for five saves record, Farnsworth owns a 1.23 ERA and zero walks allowed on the season. I am not sure who this person on the mound is and what he has done with the real Kyle Farnsworth, but whoever this imposter is on the mound I would keep him. All kidding aside, I am a Farnsworth fan and have wished him well for years. But after watching him implode in nearly every stop on his major league tour, I remain somewhat skeptical. Jake McGee, my closer pick has started off slow but with improved numbers down the road could grab the job. Same with Peralta, although walks tends to hurt his value. The Rays will be riding Farnsworth like a rented mule until he cannot close anymore.
9) Neftali Feliz: Texas Rangers
Another five for five in saves opportunities, Feliz with a 1.08 ERA has a stranglehold on the job. Recently placed on the DL with a sore shoulder, the Rangers will turn to some combination of Darren Oliver and Darren O’Day , perhaps even Rhodes, until Feliz returns. Don’t sweat this one, Feliz will be back soon and continuing his climb to the top of the ranks of MLB closers in 2011. Of concern is Feliz’s 5/6 BB/K ratio, which will have to change for Feliz to be ultimately effective as the closer. Walks tend to do very bad things to closers in the 9th but based on the the talent in his arm, Feliz will be the go-to-guy this year again.
10) Brian Fuentes: Oakland Athletics
Fuentes was signed to be a solid lefty in the pen and fill-in closer for the A’s. Five for six opportunities, Fuentes has been steady for Oakland but sports a brutal 4.66 ERA. Just like Jonathan Broxton in LA, Fuentes is likely on borrowed time unless he becomes more automatic on the mound. Add a 5/7 BB/K ratio and the Andrew Bailey watch will continue in Oakland. While I see Bailey getting the job in the short-run, Fuentes will find a way to reclaim the job by the summer and possibly to the end of the year. Don’t look now though but Ziegler has not been scored upon this year and could put up a fight as well. Keep an eye on this situation as it unfolds.
11) Joel Hanrahan: Pittsburgh Pirates
Five for five in saves, 2/8 BB/K ratio and a 2.70 ERA translates to increased job security for Hanrahan. Much like Heath Bell, as Hanrahan performs well he becomes a luxury on a rebuilding Pirates team in need of prospects. Essentially keeping the seat warm for 2010 all-star Evan Meek, look for Hanrahan to be dealt sometime in the summer and for Meek to take over the closer’s role in 2011 and for the foreseeable future.
12) Brandon League: Seattle Mariners
Yet another closer that is five for five in saves, League is holding down the fort until the return of Dave Aardsma. The 3.68 ERA is ok, but three strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings is not. League has shown good control with only one walk, but changes are still likely coming in Seattle. Expect the Mariners to deal Aardsma and/or League during the summer if Aardsma can return and show health. Given that Aardsma is no guarantee, there is a good chance that League can keep the role for the majority of the year. But I would not bet on it given his shaky track record… I actually expect a dark horse to emerge at some point in this race.
13) Carlos Marmol: Chicago Cubs
Five for seven in saves, Marmol has the security of a long-term deal and is clearly the closer in Chicago. His 2.53 ERA is interesting, but more telling is his 7/15 BB/K ratio. Few closers can touch Marmol’s heat and if he could just lower his walks totals, he would become a top-five closer in baseball. But the walks will unlikely go away this year and expect some interesting moments with Marmol as he works towards 30+ saves in 2011. Kerry Wood is the next-in-line in case, think of him as Marmol insurance. Marshall has been steady as well and the one surprise is Samardzija with a 3.65 ERA, but his 14/14 BB/K ratio shows the heat is there but the control is not. But the Cubs are Marmol’s team.
14) Leo Nunez: Florida Marlins
Totals? Five for five in saves, which appears to be a standard at this point in the season. Nunez has a 2.00 ERA and is off to a hot start in Florida. As the summer months approach, I cannot see Nunez sustaining these numbers and a few bad outings could cost him his job very quickly. For a strong run, I appear the Marlins making a trade or picking a new horse for the job. Webb, Dunn and Hensley may all get looks this year, but are unlikely long-term solutions. Until then, the job is Nunez’s to lose.
15) Jonathan Papelbon: Boston Red Sox
For a guy on the heat seat, all Papelbon has done is go five for five in saves, with a 2.16 ERA and a 2/11 BB/K ratio. Papelbon is as automatic as they come
and with his first run into free agency on the horizon, do not expect Papelbon’s role to change in 2011. Papelbon has an incentive to be a fantasy closing superstar and the Red Sox will happily ride him to first round picks as compensation in the off-season. While Bard is the heir-apparent with Bobby Jenks always lurking, do not expect this move to happen until 2012, unless injury strikes. Papelbon will look really good in Philadelphia next year. Remember you heard it here first.
16) J.J. Putz: Arizona Diamondbacks
Putz has been everything that Kirk Gibson could have imagined in Arizona and more. Five for five in saves (yes, another one), 1.13 ERA and 0/10 BB/K ratio. Expect Putz to be an all-star this year as he leads a young Diamondbacks team back to respectability. With no plan b’s on the horizon, Arizona will live by the Putz and die by the Putz.
17) Joakim Soria: Kansas City Royals
Ok…ok…ok…. let’s not get too excited people. Soria’s five saves in six opportunities comes along with a 5.59 ERA and a 5/5 BB/K ratio. Add ten hits allowed in 10 2/3 innings and you have some pretty ugly numbers for a top-three closer. With the three-headed monster of Collins, Crow and Jeffress looming, I can foresee some fans starting to call for the head of Soria as the Royals continue to excel. Don’t see it happening. I cannot see the Royals continuing their hot start and I cannot foresee anyone unseating the great Soria. The young Royals pitching squad needs Soria and unless he literally implodes, which I don’t see happening, Soria will be the closer for the next few years. As the Royals build to be contenders in the next 2-3 years, they will rely on a healthy and productive Soria to carry their bullpen. Soria is the Royals closer and do not get any other ideas on the subject.
18) Brian Wilson: San Francisco Giants
The Giants were the feel good story of 2011 and while the “fear the beard” motto was cute in its time, I think this story is done. Wilson has to get away from the beard and concentrate on what he does best: close ball games. Although five for six in saves this year, Wilson sports a brutal 7.94 ERA a pedestrian 4/6 BB/K ratio. The World Series champion Giants will give Wilson a lot of rope and I cannot foresee him losing his job. But with the World Series letdown could come a return to earth for several players, including Wilson. While he will still get 30+ saves, his numbers are showing that a market correct is in order. Wilson needs to get re-focused…he is the only game in town as the closer for the Giants.
19) Brandon Lyon: Houston Astros
The poster boy for mediocre closers, Lyon remains a frustration year-in and year-out. Four for six in saves opportunities, with a 4.32 ERA, 13 hits allowed in 8 1/3 inning and a dismal 2/3 BB/K ratio, Lyon is better suited to middle relief than closing. Lyon is a veteran on a young Astros team and while experience is supposed to help the young pitchers, his stats are hurting the team. With Melancon and Fulchino pitching so well, a changing of the guard is coming in Houston. Right now my money is on Melancon becoming the closer by May.
20) Francisco Rodriguez: New York Mets
Together with Papelbon, K-Rod had many doubters going into the year. Legal troubles and a declining team and numbers looked to spell the end for Rodriguez. His four saves in five opportunities has been great, together with his 2.35 ERA. His 6/13 BB/K ratio is showing that the arm and heat are back, but so is his wildness. K-Rod will get 30+ saves in my estimation, but may not so pretty getting there. Frankie is getting paid the big bucks and will have the job for 2011.
21) Jose Valverde: Detroit Tigers
The king of hot starts, Valverde has been four for four in saves on a very inconsistent Detroit Tigers team in 2011. His 1.04 ERA and 2/9 BB/K ratio have been spectacular. Valverde will have the job this year as he works towards another free agency run at seasons-end. Benoit is the closer in waiting and while he will have the job in 2012, will be the filler when called upon. The Tigers will stick with Valverde, period.
22) John Axford: Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching for a contending Brewers team, Axford’s numbers have not cut it this year. Three for five in saves, 7.36 ERA and a 6/8 BB/K ratio means that Axford is closing on borrowed time. I still expect Axford to get a little more rope to straighten himself out, but not for much longer. While Saito was my pick to take over the role at the start of the season, and poor health and inconsistency have plagued him. Same with LaTroy Hawkins, another failed closer in the Brewers’ pen. The dark horse for the role is Kameron Loe, the former Rangers starter and Japanese baseball survivor. Look for Loe, who has been the Brewers best reliever season to get the role any day now and to run with it into the forseeable future.
23) Drew Storen/ (Sean Burnett): Washington Nationals
I know your first reaction: is Sean Burnett not the closer? A 3.24 ERA, three for four in saves and 0/6 BB/K ratio- is that not closing numbers? Perhaps, but Burnett is like a mirage in the desert. You think you are seeing water, but its all an illusion. Storen with a 0.77 ERA, two for two in saves, six hits allowed in 11 2/3 innings and 4/8 BB/K ratio is the man. Storen has been groomed for the position is whole life and was drafted as a closer to become the Nationals ninth inning stopper. Burnett may still get the occasional opportunity but his saves opportunities are coming to an end. As Storen becomes nearly automatic, the job will be his for the next decade in Washington.
24) Matt Capps: Minnesota Twins
The Twins originally said they would bring Joe Nathan along slowly after missing a year due to surgery. What did they end up doing? Throwing him straight into the fire and destroying his pitching confidence and stats line. With a 9.82 ERA and 6/5 BB/K ratio, do not expect Nathan back in the role for a LONG time. Capps, acquired from Washington for catching prospect Ramos has now taken over the closing duties. Three for four in save opportunities, 4.09 ERA and a 0/5 BB/K ratio shows that Capps is ready to run with the job. Minnesota is well-known for steady starting pitching and I look for Capps to finish with a steady amount of saves. He may not blow hitters away anymore, but with continued control look for Capps to keep the job for most of 2011.
25) Francisco Cordero: Cincinnati Reds
For all the doom and gloom coming out of Cinci for Cordero, he has continued to put up great numbers. Three for three in saves, 2.00 ERA, a stingy five hits in nine innings pitched and 4/7 BB/K ratio. The changing of the guard is coming though for the Reds as you look at Chapman’s numbers. Throws 100+ MPH heat, nine scoreless innings, two hits in nine innings with a 7/9 BB/K ratio. This is another case that unless the incumbent implodes or gets injured, he will retain his role. The Reds rely on the Veteran Cordero and Dusty Baker is very loyal to his foot soldiers. Chapman is still showing wildness and the best course is to let him continue to develop as Cordero keeps saving games. A change is coming in 2012 but until then, Cordero is the Reds closer. If you like to gamble though, Chapman has a decent shot at the job… he is the heir apparent and the first reliever in line if needed.
26) Jon Rauch: Toronto Blue Jays
One of several new additions to the Jays pen, Rauch originally was supposed to keep the role warm for Frank Francisco until he returned from injury. Rauch on the season has a 2.08 ERA and is three for three in saves opportunities. While his 4/6 BB/K ratio is pedestrian, Rauch will have the job for the majority of the year in my opinion. While Francisco has the heat and the strikeout numbers, he has shown to be very inconsistent and erratic in the closers role from his time in Texas. Francisco will possibly get a shot at the role at some point early on this season, my money is still on Rauch. With so many closing options in Toronto including Dotel and Frasor, this situation is very difficult to handicap. At the end of the day, you either believe in Francisco or Rauch as the closer. My gut is saying Rauch.
27) Jordan Walden: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The next, great Angels closer, Walden has taken to the role and run with it. Ten scoreless innings, three for three in saves, three hits allowed in 9 1/3 innings and a 5/10 BB/K ratio are all impressive. Fernando Rodney, the veteran closer will be breathing down his neck the whole season. If not for his 8/7 BB/K ratio, Rodney has a 2.08 ERA of his own and only blown save on the season. As with all young pitchers, Walden will run into some trouble along the way. The question will be how he handles adversity. This is one team that I have faced several arguments on this season. I see Rodney taking back his job while Walden continues to be groomed into the next big thing. For me, experience and knowledge tends to usually win out and Rodney has an advantage in both departments over Walden. The job is Walden’s today and for quite some time, but 2-3 blown saves in a week can change things in a hurry. Another situation to keep an eye on.
28) Mitchell Boggs: St. Louis Cardinals
Where is Ryan Franklin? One for five in save opportunities and with a 7.88 ERA. Complaining about the fans of St. Louis won’t appease Cardinals 
management either. The 27-year-old Boggs is the newest closer on the carousel, with two saves in two opportunities, 1.59 ERA and outstanding 3/13 BB/K ratio. There are many people jumping on the Boggs bandwagon and for good reason. The kid is apparently coming into his own and has taken the job by the reigns. As is the case with Walden, we do not have enough of a track record to know the long-term potential of the kid. Again, 2-3 blown saves in a week can change the situation in a hurry. I still expect Franklin to straighten himself out and perhaps reclaim the job later in the year. But based on his solid work to-date, the closer in St. Louis is Boggs and the job is literally his to lose. Keep one eye open, just in case.
29) Kevin Gregg: Baltimore Orioles
Pitching in the Brandon Lyon sea of mediocrity, Gregg has been up-and-down this year for the upstart Orioles. Two saves in three opportunities, 4.50 ERA, and 4/6 BB/K ratio are nothing to write home about. Mike Gonzalez with a 10.80 ERA does not appear to be healthy and recovered to be able to compete for the role. Jeremy Accardo has a 2.08 ERA but an alarming 6/4 BB/K ratio. Koji Uehara, with a 1.35 ERA and 3/7 BB/K ratio is my pick for the Orioles closing job when Gregg inevitably begins to break down. The Orioles are lucky to have several options, with Simon originally being my original dark horse until legal troubles slowed down his season. But based on track history, I really like Uehara’s chances to claim the job by June, if not sooner.
30) (Jesse Crain): Chicago White Sox
I certainly saved the worst for last and the White Sox have had their share of bullpen woes in 2011. With one team on the season, Sale and Thornton have not been the saviors that Sox fans were expecting this year. With ERAs north of 6.00, neither one is likely to take the role anytime soon. Ohman and Pena have been fairly weak as well and the last two realistic survivors are Santos and Crain. Much press has been written on Santos, the converted pitcher who has pitched 9 2/3 scoreless innings with five hits allowed a 5/13 BB/K ratio. While many experts are already picking Santos, I am looking at the dark horse, Jesse Crain to take the role. The former Twin had a steady 2010 year and has started this year with a 1.74 ERA and spectacular 2/11 BB/K ratio. Santos is the darling of Chicago with his flame throwing ways, but the more experienced Crain appears to be just what the doctor ordered in Chicago. A situation that is far from unsettled, Thornton or Sale could grab a hold of the job at any time with some steady consecutive outings. But based on current numbers and future outlook, if you want my pick- it will be Crain. With such a strong offense and steady starting pitching, the Sox cannot afford to lose too many games in the 9th if they hope to take the AL Central. That is where a veteran as the anchor will prove to be best solution in the bullpen.
The state of closers is always a heated discussion in baseball circles every year. Probably the most volatile position in baseball, approximately 30% of opening day closers will still have their jobs by years-end. With injuries and failures, closers can come and go on a weekly basis. Today’s failed starters can be tomorrow’s superstar closers. Next week’s stoppers can also be minor league filler by August. All baseball fans, whether fans of teams or fantasy players, all get driven to the point of insanity because of closers. For every Mariano Rivera, there will be three Jordan Waldens, five Jonathan Broxtons and seven Brandon Lyons. I hope that you enjoyed reading the state of the union on MLB closers today. Although situations may have changed while I wrote this article (see Contreras) and even tomorrow, remember to keep an open mind and focus on where the next closers will be. The most effective relievers in the bullpen will usually get the first crack- it is the ones that can succeed under pressure that will keep their jobs.
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Friday Face-off: Haren vs. Weaver, Battle of the Angels
MLBreports: The Angels are off to a fairly hot start in 2011, with a current record through Friday of 12-7. A big reason for the Angels winning record has been the play of its pitchers. Particularly, Danny Haren and Jered Weaver have been off-the-charts this season as they have steamrolled hitters out of the gate. I have received many e-mails asking which pitcher has been the best in baseball this season. That pitcher resides in Anaheim and the million dollar question is: Haren or Weaver?
Wins: Weaver is 5-0 in 5 starts, with Haren 4-0 in the same number of games. Wins is an arbitrary number, but both Haren and Weaver have won all of their starts. For whatever its worth, Weaver has the extra win. With both pitchers being perfect, advantage: tie.
ERA: Haren has a 1.16 ERA on the season, while Weaver sits at 1.23. Too close to differentiate. Advantage: tie.
Innings: Weaver has pitched 36 2/3 innings in 2011 while Haren has tossed 31 innings. Over the course of a season, this would translate into approximately 35 more innings pitched by Weaver. Points for durability. Advantage: Weaver.
Strikeouts: We all know that baseball fans love their flamethrowers and the Angels have some strong ones in this pair. Weaver currently leads the AL with 39 strikeouts while Haren has 27. Balls put into play create more opportunities for miscues while strikeouts are seen as the most solid outs. Advantage: Weaver.
Walks: One of my most watched pitching categories, I look for pitchers that limit their walk counts. Walks to me represents a pitcher
beating themselves, rather than the batter having to get a base hit. A pitcher who throws fewer walks creates a strong opportunity for success in my opinion. Danny Haren has walked 2 batters all season while Weaver has walked 9. Both pitchers are impressive in this category, but Haren has been just that much more dominant. Advantage: Haren.
Conclusion: The Angels hurlers are matched up fairly closely. Weaver is 28 while Haren is 30. Haren is 6’5″ and Weaver is 6’7″. They have very similar career ERAs and WHIPs. Any major league team would love to have either pitcher on their roster. But the younger and taller Weaver, with added innings and strikeouts in 2011 wins out over the master of control Haren. In his last 2 seasons, Haren walked under 30 batters per season. Weaver though led the AL in strikeouts in 2010 with 233. With 3 All-Star game appearances under his belt, Haren beats out Weaver’s sole appearance last year. Looking at career numbers, my pick would be to select Haren over Weaver. I prefer control pitchers and Haren still displays the strikeouts and innings pitched to be a solid ace. While Haren may in fact beat out Weaver by season’s end, at this point in the season Weaver is the best pitcher….by a hair. With one solid or blowout start over the next few weeks, the tides can easily change on this one. Enjoy your dual-aces Angels fans, they will be a pleasure to watch all season long.
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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: National League
MLB reports: In part 2 of my series on sleeper targets, I move to the National League. On each team, I pinpoint the player that will likely drop in your draft or sit on the waiver wire come opening day. These are the value players that will in my estimation make or break your fantasy year. Let’s get to it:
Cubs – Carlos Pena: Yes. A $10 million player can be undervalued. Especially one that hit below .200 in 2010. At 100 walks and 30+ home runs, Pena would definitely have a place on my fantasy team. Check his 2009 season. .227 average and a .356 OBP. 87 walks and 39 home runs that year. Pena can likely be had around the 7th round and as late as the 12th round depending on your league. You will never get better production at such a reduced rate. Buy low on Pena.
Nationals – Drew Storen: As I write this article, I see a tweet that Storen/Burnett will share closer duties to start the year. Closers by committee tend to scare off many fantasy teams but it shouldn’t scare you. When you know your guy will have the job for most of the year and nail it down, especially in a keeper league, nab him. Storen was highly touted in college, groomed as a closer and will be the Nationals closer for the next 10 years. If you draft right, he can do the same for you. Storen’s spring woes mean value to you. Don’t think fringe closer, bet on your #1 stopper on a young team on the rise.
Brewers – Takashi Saito: I am a big John Axford fan, but the closer position is volatile to say the least. Injuries and performance creates huge fluctuations. Statistics show that at least 40% of the closers to start the year won’t have their jobs in September. Saito has the experience and track record and will get the ball first when called upon. Saito may be closer insurance on your bench to start the year, but for a guy likely to go undrafted in most leagues, certainly worth the gamble.
Marlins – Logan Morrison: See Storen. LoMo was very highly touted to start the spring but a poor March has likely put a damper on many teams’ expectations. It shouldn’t change your projections. Spring numbers don’t mean much on a grand scale and young players with big expectations often try too hard and hinder themselves early on. Once the season starts, the good ones know how to refocus and get back to the basics. Morrison is the next Will Clark/ Mark Grace. Sweet swing and patience personified. Rank him high and draft low. If he falls to the 8th round or after, nab him and enjoy him for the next 12 years.
Diamondbacks – Miguel Montero: Another highly touted prospect seemingly forever that has been sidelined year after year by injuries. I see Montero ready to take the next step. A catcher with good power doesn’t grow on trees. Keep an eye on Montero and if your other catcher targets are gone by the 10th-12th rounds, consider him. The potential is still there and he can still be affordable.
Rockies – Chris Iannetta: I see Chris as similar to Montero but with more potential and a lower price tag. Despite repeated chances, Iannetta has yet to break through to the next level. With a good eye at the plate, pop and the think air of Denver, I see 25+ home runs and 75 walks in his future. He is worth the small gamble as his ceiling remains high at 28. Colorado is giving him another chance, so should you.
Mets – Francisco Rodriguez: Between the Mets issues, lack of talent and K-Rod’s own legal troubles, few teams will likely be targeting him on draft day. Rodriguez went from closer keeper to outcast seemingly overnight. 25 saves and a 2.20 ERA in 2010 sound positive to me. Remember, bad teams often play in closer games. K-Rod could get you easily 30 saves at his lowest cost ever. Think about it.
Phillies – Raul Ibanez: I rarely recommend targeting 39 outfielders. My general rule is to stay away from the 35+ crowd, injuries and performance issues tend to occur quicker with the older player generation. But Ibanez had 34 home runs in 2009 with 93 runs and rbis that year. His batting average and obp were relatively consistent to his historical norms, only the power seemed to be going down. Ibanez got going later in the season and hopefully an offseason in his revitalization chamber helped (no joke, he does own one). In that ballpark and with the loss of Utley and Werth, Ibanez could see time in the 3rd and 5th slots. At the very least he will be a decent 5th outfielder and perform as a 3rd on many nights.
Pirates – Ryan Doumit: For a team with as little talent as the Pirates right now, Doumit continues to stand out for me. I featured him in a profile piece this week, check out the archives to read my full evaluation of Ryan. Bottom line is that he is a switch hitting catcher that can help you in almost every category. With outfield and first base eligibility as well, Doumit will offer versatility to your fantasy team in the case of injuries. The most likely scenario is that he will be traded to a contender between opening day and the all-star game. I still smell a breakout year and with much to prove, Doumit could see 2011 as his year.
Cardinals – Colby Rasmus: A highly touted prospect, difference of opinions between La Russa and Rasmus has burnt out some of Colby’s bright light. But with Pujols looming in the line-up, I believe this kid is only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential. Seemingly around forever, Rasmus is only 24 years old. 30+ home runs with 100+ rbis are on the way…buy early to avoid the 1st round price tag in a year or two. 5th-7th round bargain in my book.
Braves – Mike Minor: After breezing through the minors last year, the 23 year old made it to the Braves in his 2nd professional season. Having lost his 5th starter job in spring training, Minor might be off to the bullpen or minors to start the year. I see Tommy Hanson potential in this kid and so do the braves. Minor could go anywhere from the 15th round to undrafted in many leagues. With good starting pitching at such a high premium these days in baseball, there should be room on your bench reserved for Minor.
Reds – Yonder Alonso: Alonso and Logan Morrison almost go hand-in-hand for me. One of the Reds top prospects and A-Rod friends/protégés, Alonso is a man with a stellar bat and no position to play. Blocked at 1B by Votto, the Reds have not expressed the confidence to-date to name Alonso as a future outfielder. Seemingly a change of scenery is in order, but this kid has endless potential in his future. Buy low and thank me later as you watch walk after walk and the doubles/home runs fly off his bat. I see Alonso as one of the special, rare superstars to-be in baseball. Watch him play, I think you will agree.
Astros – Brett Wallace: Another highly touted prospect for what seems forever, Wallace is now on his 4th organization in his short professional career. Traded for the likes of Matt Holliday, Michael Taylor and Anthony Gose, several organizations have shown a lot of faith in the capabilities of this third baseman turned first baseman. The bat is real, as Wallace was considered to have the strongest bat in his draft year class. With the downturn of the Astros, many people seem to forget the potency of their park. Wallace is the next face of the Astros and hopefully your fantasy team.
Dodgers – Andre Ethier: I debated long and hard between Ethier and Broxton in this spot. I definitely see Broxton rebounding this year to reclaim his spot as a top-5 baseball closer. He is that good and an off-season of rest and exercise should do the trick. With Ethier, despite having 1st round potential, I tend to see him very undervalued in fantasy drafts as a whole. The former Athletic displays the power and patience that I most value in a hitter. A possible future MVP candidate one day, the likely 5th round pick is almost certain to give you a minimum level of production, with a higher ceiling to come. Jump in early, I value Ethier much higher than Kemp if that gives you a better idea on his ranking to me.
Padres – Matt Latos: This one you for sure did not see coming. With Latos mania running wild, you must think that I am exaggerating. I am not. As a whole I am not crazy about the Padres as a team, similarly to the Mets. But Latos is a special pitcher, one of the only ones I would consider drafting in the 3rd round. His low ERA and WHIP combined with wins potential sold me. Don’t reach at any cost, but even drafting early will give you the numbers that your pitching staff requires in fairly consistent fashion.
Giants – Buster Posey: As World Series champs in 2010, players on the Giants will likely come with a higher price tag this year based on the team’s miracle run. Don’t overpay…unless you are buying this generation’s Johnny Bench. Posey can do it all at the plate and still has room to grow. A top 5 rounds pick? Definitely. Be prepared to go as high as the 2nd or 3rd round but believe me, you could do worse than getting the strongest player at the weakest position to fill in baseball.
I hope you have enjoyed my look into fantasy baseball sleepers. Good luck managing your fantasy team and hopefully I have been able to make some of your roster decisions much clearer.
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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: American League
MLB reports: Based on the popularity of my article this week on my 10 fantasy baseball tips, I keep the fantasy talk alive today. For those fantasy teams in need to fill key positions, sleepers are always sought after. Before, during and after drafts, fantasy players are always looking for value finds. Let’s cut to the chase. I present my sleeper pick for each MLB team. My criteria was based on production and availability. I looked for good value that would come at a low cost. Here goes starting with my A.L. Sleeper picks.
Orioles- Matt Wieters: A highly touted backstop, Wieters has started slow in his MLB career. Catchers take time to develop. Grab him from the 5th round and on.
Red Sox- Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Keeping the catcher-theme going, it was not long ago that Salty was blocked by McCann and the centerpiece of the Teixeira deal. Boston has faith in him as their #1, you should as well, as your #2.
Indians- LaPorta: I was high on Matt as soon as he was drafted by the Brewers. The kid can just plain hit. Pressure from the C.C. deal dying down. 2011, he will break out.
Tigers- Porcello: Rick’s stuff is just nasty. Will be a bona fide #1 one day. Worth the risk.
Yankees- Granderson: Lost year in 2011 and strained oblique to start the year. Best time to buy in on Curtis, 20/20/20/20 potential still there.
Jays- Rauch: While most leagues jump on Francisco, I would take Rauch. Proven and likely to grab job early on.
Angels- Rodney: People may feel nervous with Fernando but the saves will be there. Be realistic and if falls late, grab him.
Rays- McGee: Closer-by-committee are 3 of the most dreaded words in the fantasy baseball dictionary. A smart shopper knows how to spot the victor as committees rarely last. My money is on McGee, not Peralta. McGee has the stuff and drive to take the job.
White Sox- Flowers: A.J. may be back but its to babysit and bring along Flowers. Kenny was so high on this kid that he traded Vasquez for him. Great discipline and power at the plate, he will be up this year and take form.
Royals- Gordon: Former Baseball America #1 prospect, Alex has become mud in a short time. He can become a success overnight. Don’t miss the boat.
Twins- Blackburn: I simply love this kid. He doesn’t walk anyone and is simply great when he’s on. 15 wins could be in the cards.
A’s- Carter: Chris Carter (not the ex-met, red sox player is a beast. He tore up AA pitching in 2008. He was traded in packages for Haren and Quentin. Grab him late.
Mariners- Pineda: the #2 to Felix as #1, Michael Pineda is the real deal. Great stuff and character rated high likly to be up in June. Lock him up.
Rangers- Napoli: Do you like 30+ home runs from your catchers? Ignore Torrealba. Remember what I tell you.
Thank you for the read and follow of our site. Please forward any fantasy questions to mlbreports@gmail.com. Tomorrow night, I will post my NL sleepers. Enjoy!
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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