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Top Home Run Hitters: MLB 2011
MLB reports: For pure fun today, I wanted to scan the major league baseball leaderboard and evaluate the top home run hitters of 2011. While this list can change at a moment’s notice, looking at the board with over three weeks into the season is always fun. At least my idea of fun. I originally planned to make a top ten list, but that was going to prove to be futile. Six hitters sit at the top of the list with seven home runs a piece and eight hitters tied for second with six home runs each. Let’s take a close look at the top fourteen then and see which hitters are likely to remain on the list and which have caught lightning in a bottle for a few games.
First Place – Seven Home Runs
Jose Bautista: Toronto Blue Jays
After 54 home runs last year, is anyone still waiting for a slowdown? With 19 walks already, .359 AVG and 1.256 OPS, Bautista continues to build on the momentum of last year. Living up to his large contract extension signed in the off-season, it appears that the new Jose Bautista is here to stay. At 30 years of age, Bautista is showing that he has enough juice in his bat to approach another 50 home runs this year.
Adrian Beltre: Texas Rangers
Another big contract signing entering 2011, Beltre has made good on the promise of his bat hitting in Arlington. Inconsistent throughout his career, analysts have often said that if healthy and playing in a hitters park, the sky is the limit. Beltre hit 48 home runs back in 2004 playing for the Dodgers and have never approached those numbers since. At 32 and playing in one of the best hitters park in a stacked lineup, big numbers could come his way. I see somewhat of a regression, but 30-35 home runs is a safe bet at this point.
Ryan Braun: Milwaukee Brewers
The Hebrew Hammer has 128 career home runs in four seasons going into 2011. He has Prince Fielder in the lineup with him. At 27, Braun is this generation’s Ralph Kiner and Hank Greenberg. No slowdowns ahead for this Brewer as he shoots for his first 40+ home run season. The 2007 NL Rookie of the Year is a future MVP and his time could come this year.
Curtis Granderson: New York Yankees
The only surprise in the top home run hitters category, Granderson has always shown glimpses of brilliance but injuries and slumps have slowed his path. The 20/20/20/20 season in 2007 was impressive, as was the career high 30 home runs that Granderson hit in 2009 for the Tigers. Even though he missed 26 games last year to injury, he still was able to amass 24 home runs. Now healthy and with the short porch in Yankee stadium, Granderson has a good chance at equaling and besting his career best power numbers. Given the Yankees lineup as well, I would not count him out. Granderson is unlikely to remain among the league leaders in bombs, but a solid 30+ home run season is definitely in order.
Albert Pujols: St. Louis Cardinals
Coming into this season, the Great Pujols hit a Ruthian 408 home runs in 10 seasons. Truly our generation’s Babe Ruth, Pujols has to be considered one of the best home run hitters of all time. With an .806 OPS, Pujols hasn’t even begun to heat up. Pujols has Holliday and a resurging Lance Berkman for protection and going into his first free agency year, expect legendary numbers by seasons end. This is Albert Pujols we are talking about…I do not have to say anything else.
Troy Tulowitzki: Colorado Rockies
Still only 26 years old, Tulowitzki is working towards becoming the best player in baseball. Missing significant time in 2008 and 2010, Tulo still has 99 career home runs going into today. Playing in the home run haven called Colorado, all Tulo has to do is to stay healthy to succeed. As this is an odd year, history is shown that he will likely play close to a full season. His career high of 32 home runs is well within reach and I can see a 40+ home run season this year. The talent and circumstances are all there…all he needs is health.
Second Place: Six Home Runs
Lance Berkman: St. Louis Cardinals
Going into the second tier of top home run hitters, we find some resurgent players, surprises and expected studs. Berkman was an uncertainty coming into season. The 35-year-old Big Puma has seen 40+ home run seasons in his career. 2010 was an injury shortened season and after getting traded to the Yankees and faltering in New York, critics began to write him off. I was a big fan of his move to St. Louis, back to the NL Central and the opportunity to play with Pujols and Holliday. Defense aside, Berkman’s 9 walks and league leading .725 SLG show that the Puma is back. With the occasional days off and prime spot in the lineup, 35 home runs is my predicted total for this superstar.
Jonny Gomes: Cincinnati Reds
The man has seem to been around forever but is actually only 30 years old. Gomes has seen several 20+ home run seasons in his career, including 18 in 2010 playing in a career high 148 games. With 18 walks, Gomes has disguised his poor .212 avg this season with a .386 OBP and .530 SLG. The owner of a lifetime .332 OBP and .463 SLG, Gomes will get a fair amount of playing time this year. While he is not the second coming of Adam Dunn, Gomes has clearly found a home in Cincinnati. His lower average and 19 strikeouts concern me at this point as he will need to become a steadier hitter to continue to receive steady playing time. Part of the surprises of this list, expect a return to form in order for Gomes. Despite lofty totals, I cannot foresee a 30 home run season coming, even though he plays in that ballpark. He is too streaky and Dusty Baker is not patient enough to stick with him.
Howie Kendrick: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Not one of my favorite players to cover, I have always soured on Kendrick for his inability to take walks. With a career high of 10 home runs (twice), low stolen bases totals and inability to consistently get on base, I have rarely seen the upside of Kendrick at the plate. This season, apparently as light switch has gone off inside his head or bat, as Kendrick is well on his way to shattering his previous power numbers and already has 10 walks on the season (last year he set a career high of 28). Does a leopard change its spots…or does a Kendrick learn patience? I will believe it when I see it. I have watched Kendrick for too long to be sold on what I have seen thus far. if he is still able to keep up this approach going into July, maybe I will cut him some slack. Until then, I expect to see Kendrick off this list by mid-June at the latest. A nice run, but a run is all this is at the end of the day in my opinion.
Russell Martin: New York Yankees
The second Yankee on our list has found a new home and new lease on life in the Bronx. Martin had a career high 19 home runs in 2007 playing for the Dodgers, earning a Silver Slugger award that year. With an OPS of 1.099, Martin is the early favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. Playing nearly every game this season and enjoying a healthy hip, Martin apparently has renewed drive and focus that was previously lacking in Los Angeles. At 28 years old and continuing our trend of young superstars on the list, all Martin really has to do is stay healthy this year. In the loaded Yankees lineup and with the short porch, Martin has a chance at 25 home runs this year.
Jorge Posada: New York Yankees
Yankee #3 is on the downside of his career, or so we are led to believe. The 39-year-old Posada is a full-time DH for the full-time in his career. While his .153 AVG and .711 OPS, his 6 home runs (of his 9 total hits) is outstanding. Too many factors are against Posada staying on the leaderboard. Health is always a concern and despite no longer playing the field, any tweaks at this point could send the elderly Posada to the DL. Further, his numbers are showing that when he is not hitting home runs, he is simply not hitting or getting on base. As Posada continues his best Rob Deer impersonation, I don’t foresee great things ahead for the future hall of famer, nearing the end of an outstanding career.
Carlos Quentin: Chicago White Sox
Both Chicago teams are represented, with the powerful Quentin starting off for the White Sox. The likely pick for MVP had he stayed healthy in 2008, Quentin has a laundry list of injuries and ailments his entire career. But when healthy, Quentin is always a home run threat. With a 1.023 OPS and having Rios, Dunn, Konerko, Ramirez and Beckham in the lineup for protection, Quentin looks to best his career high of 36 home runs in 2008. I am sitting on the fence on this one. The potential is there, but so are the injuries. Expect at least a couple of trips to the disabled list but assuming reasonable health, I will take 30+ home runs for Carlos. The Adam Dunn factor cannot be discounted, as he will prove to be great protection for Quentin all season long.
Alfonso Soriano: Chicago Cubs
A 20+ home run hitter for nine straight seasons, Soriano was written off for dead by many experts, yours truly included. 2009 was a dismal season for Soriano and although he had a steady return last year, at the age of 35 and with knee issues, little was expected from the talented Dominican. Despite his .513 SLG this season, there are several reasons to expect a continuing decline for Soriano. His BB/K rate this year is an abysmal 3/21, as his .244 AVG and .272 OBP. If you ask me, I see Soriano slowly decaying into the next Yuniesky Betancourt. Soriano is still a lock for another 20+ home run year but with the rest of his game on such a rapid decline, don’t expect much else. If the Cubs have any other options, I expect Soriano to see more time on the bench or even a trade in order. But at his salary, I cannot foresee any team taking a chance.
Mark Teixeira: New York Yankees
The last player on our list and Yankee #4, Teixeira clearly did not get the memo that we are in April and not August. A notorious slow starter, Teixeira is already up to twelve walks, .402 OBP and .621 SLG. For the 31-year-old Teixeira who has 281 career home runs, his career high of 43 home runs in 2005 could be broken. Considering that Teixeira has the ability to hit 10-12 home runs per month in the summer, I see a clear breakout year for this superstar first baseman. The Yankees went out and got him for a reason. In addition to his gold glove defense, I am smelling a possible silver slugger and MVP award in 2011.
What is the future of this list? Hard to tell without a crystal ball, as so many factors can arise. Injuries, playing time, lineup position…things can change. But a trend is clear from the early season home run leaders. Most are in the 27-30 year-old age bracket and are proven home run hitters in their careers. I expect most of the above hitters to remain on the list, with some surprises to fade away and new players to emerge. Other superstars, like Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez will join this list very soon. But even in the short span of three weeks into the season, it is clear that even with only a few games played, the home run hitting cream is already rising to the top.
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MLB Closers Report 2011: Who is in, Who is out
MLB reports: I get several messages a day on the state of the closers in major league baseball. Questions asking me which players have a closing job, which are about to lose their job and which players are most likely to get save opportunities. In my fantasy baseball days, I used to call it fishing for closers on the waiver wire: waiting for a closer to underperform and/or get injured and lose their job and immediately pick up the heir-apparent to the throne. How are the thirty major league teams doing in the closer department? Let’s take a closer look at each team and find out:
1) New York Yankees: Mariano Rivera
With seven saves in eight opportunities and a 1.93 ERA, Mo is as automatic as they come. Even at his advanced age, Mariano is a #1 fantasy closer, if not the top closer. Rafael Soriano is the next in-line, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
2) Colorado Rockies: Houston Street
Although health is often a concern with Street, seven saves in seven opportunities with a 2.03 ERA is not. Street has really come into his own in Colorado and as long as he can stay healthy, he is becoming nearly automatic out on the mound. Add in fourteen strikeouts and Street is as dangerous as they come. Lidstrom has been spectacular as well to start the year, but with health and performance issues surrounding him in the past, Lidstrom at best is a filler in case of an injury to Street. A solid #2, Lidstrom will form a solid 1-2 punch with Street all season long (on the field and likely on the DL at some point).
3) Atlanta Braves: Craig Kimbrel
The youngsters debate should be over. Six saves in seven opportunities and a 0.96 ERA. 2/14 BB/K ratio. Kimbrel is clearly the man in Atlanta. While
Venters is very talented and the next in line should Kimbrel falter, the rope for Kimbrel grows by the day. Atlanta appears to have found its closer for the next decade.
4) Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez
With the hot start of the Indians, Perez has been enjoying the ride. Six saves in seven opportunities and a 2.25 ERA. One area for concern: four strikeouts in eight innings pitched. Although Perez is becoming craftier on the mound, low strikeouts for a closer generally leads to disaster. The Indians have some decent arms in the pen, including Rafael Perez. But the Perez of choice is Chris.
5) San Diego Padres: Heath Bell
The second coming of Trevor Hoffman, Bell is a perfect five for five in save opportunities with a 1.00 ERA. Having Bell on the Padres is like driving a brand new Mercedes while living in a bachelor apartment on the wrong side of the town. An unnecessary luxury in many observers’ estimation. Beware that a hot Bell will have trade rumors surround him all summer long. The Padres have literally 4-5 closing options in the pen, so this situation is far from settled if Bell is dealt. I could see Neshek, Qualls, Gregerson and Adams all getting their shot. For now Bell is a top five closer unless he leaves San Diego. If I had to watch one reliever it would be Neshek, who has come back from injury and could claim the job in the event he is called upon.
6) Los Angeles Dodgers: Jonathan Broxton
Broxton somehow is a perfect five for five in saves but with a 5.19 ERA, the end is likely coming near. The hope for many baseball analysts, including my own, is that Broxton can turn it around and reclaim his form. Kuo, once healthy, is the likely pick to take over the role. My dark horse pick is Mike MacDougal, the veteran who has extensive closing experience. A 1.13 ERA for MacDougal is outstanding, but his 5/6 BB/K ratio is nothing to write home about. Guerrier may also get a look, but Kuo is the consensus pick to take over at some point. I would like to sit here and guarantee that Broxton will recover and return to form, but I can’t promise that. It could happen, but with each passing rocky outing, even I am starting to have my doubts. My plan would be to remove Broxton from the role and let him work out in his kinks. In the interim I would insert MacDougal to steady the ship and then re-insert Broxton in July. That would be my plan, but not necessarily the same script for the Dodgers. Keep a look out as this mess is far from settled.
7) Philadelphia Phillies: Jose Contreras (Breaking News: Now Ryan Madson)
Running an eight inning scoreless run, a perfect five for five in saves opportunities with nine strikeouts, Contreras has become the man in Philadelphia. But running a close second is Ryan Madson, a 1.00 ERA and 2/10 BB/K ratio. The long-term solution is Madson and any hint of a Contreras downturn will insert Madson in the role. I expect this to happen any week now and once Madson becomes the closer, he should keep it until Papelbon joins the team next year (yes, it will happen). Please do not say Brad Lidge though, that story has been written and re-written too many times. Injuries and production problems is the story of Lidge. Hopefully the Phillies are smart and do not go down that road again. The moral of the story: Contreras today, Madson soon and Papelbon next year.
(P.S. As I am writing this, Contreras has been sent to Philadelphia for an exam and is on the DL. Ryan Madson is the closer, funny how quickly things can turn)
8) Kyle Farnsworth: Tampa Bay Rays
Another closer with a perfect five for five saves record, Farnsworth owns a 1.23 ERA and zero walks allowed on the season. I am not sure who this person on the mound is and what he has done with the real Kyle Farnsworth, but whoever this imposter is on the mound I would keep him. All kidding aside, I am a Farnsworth fan and have wished him well for years. But after watching him implode in nearly every stop on his major league tour, I remain somewhat skeptical. Jake McGee, my closer pick has started off slow but with improved numbers down the road could grab the job. Same with Peralta, although walks tends to hurt his value. The Rays will be riding Farnsworth like a rented mule until he cannot close anymore.
9) Neftali Feliz: Texas Rangers
Another five for five in saves opportunities, Feliz with a 1.08 ERA has a stranglehold on the job. Recently placed on the DL with a sore shoulder, the Rangers will turn to some combination of Darren Oliver and Darren O’Day , perhaps even Rhodes, until Feliz returns. Don’t sweat this one, Feliz will be back soon and continuing his climb to the top of the ranks of MLB closers in 2011. Of concern is Feliz’s 5/6 BB/K ratio, which will have to change for Feliz to be ultimately effective as the closer. Walks tend to do very bad things to closers in the 9th but based on the the talent in his arm, Feliz will be the go-to-guy this year again.
10) Brian Fuentes: Oakland Athletics
Fuentes was signed to be a solid lefty in the pen and fill-in closer for the A’s. Five for six opportunities, Fuentes has been steady for Oakland but sports a brutal 4.66 ERA. Just like Jonathan Broxton in LA, Fuentes is likely on borrowed time unless he becomes more automatic on the mound. Add a 5/7 BB/K ratio and the Andrew Bailey watch will continue in Oakland. While I see Bailey getting the job in the short-run, Fuentes will find a way to reclaim the job by the summer and possibly to the end of the year. Don’t look now though but Ziegler has not been scored upon this year and could put up a fight as well. Keep an eye on this situation as it unfolds.
11) Joel Hanrahan: Pittsburgh Pirates
Five for five in saves, 2/8 BB/K ratio and a 2.70 ERA translates to increased job security for Hanrahan. Much like Heath Bell, as Hanrahan performs well he becomes a luxury on a rebuilding Pirates team in need of prospects. Essentially keeping the seat warm for 2010 all-star Evan Meek, look for Hanrahan to be dealt sometime in the summer and for Meek to take over the closer’s role in 2011 and for the foreseeable future.
12) Brandon League: Seattle Mariners
Yet another closer that is five for five in saves, League is holding down the fort until the return of Dave Aardsma. The 3.68 ERA is ok, but three strikeouts in 7 1/3 innings is not. League has shown good control with only one walk, but changes are still likely coming in Seattle. Expect the Mariners to deal Aardsma and/or League during the summer if Aardsma can return and show health. Given that Aardsma is no guarantee, there is a good chance that League can keep the role for the majority of the year. But I would not bet on it given his shaky track record… I actually expect a dark horse to emerge at some point in this race.
13) Carlos Marmol: Chicago Cubs
Five for seven in saves, Marmol has the security of a long-term deal and is clearly the closer in Chicago. His 2.53 ERA is interesting, but more telling is his 7/15 BB/K ratio. Few closers can touch Marmol’s heat and if he could just lower his walks totals, he would become a top-five closer in baseball. But the walks will unlikely go away this year and expect some interesting moments with Marmol as he works towards 30+ saves in 2011. Kerry Wood is the next-in-line in case, think of him as Marmol insurance. Marshall has been steady as well and the one surprise is Samardzija with a 3.65 ERA, but his 14/14 BB/K ratio shows the heat is there but the control is not. But the Cubs are Marmol’s team.
14) Leo Nunez: Florida Marlins
Totals? Five for five in saves, which appears to be a standard at this point in the season. Nunez has a 2.00 ERA and is off to a hot start in Florida. As the summer months approach, I cannot see Nunez sustaining these numbers and a few bad outings could cost him his job very quickly. For a strong run, I appear the Marlins making a trade or picking a new horse for the job. Webb, Dunn and Hensley may all get looks this year, but are unlikely long-term solutions. Until then, the job is Nunez’s to lose.
15) Jonathan Papelbon: Boston Red Sox
For a guy on the heat seat, all Papelbon has done is go five for five in saves, with a 2.16 ERA and a 2/11 BB/K ratio. Papelbon is as automatic as they come
and with his first run into free agency on the horizon, do not expect Papelbon’s role to change in 2011. Papelbon has an incentive to be a fantasy closing superstar and the Red Sox will happily ride him to first round picks as compensation in the off-season. While Bard is the heir-apparent with Bobby Jenks always lurking, do not expect this move to happen until 2012, unless injury strikes. Papelbon will look really good in Philadelphia next year. Remember you heard it here first.
16) J.J. Putz: Arizona Diamondbacks
Putz has been everything that Kirk Gibson could have imagined in Arizona and more. Five for five in saves (yes, another one), 1.13 ERA and 0/10 BB/K ratio. Expect Putz to be an all-star this year as he leads a young Diamondbacks team back to respectability. With no plan b’s on the horizon, Arizona will live by the Putz and die by the Putz.
17) Joakim Soria: Kansas City Royals
Ok…ok…ok…. let’s not get too excited people. Soria’s five saves in six opportunities comes along with a 5.59 ERA and a 5/5 BB/K ratio. Add ten hits allowed in 10 2/3 innings and you have some pretty ugly numbers for a top-three closer. With the three-headed monster of Collins, Crow and Jeffress looming, I can foresee some fans starting to call for the head of Soria as the Royals continue to excel. Don’t see it happening. I cannot see the Royals continuing their hot start and I cannot foresee anyone unseating the great Soria. The young Royals pitching squad needs Soria and unless he literally implodes, which I don’t see happening, Soria will be the closer for the next few years. As the Royals build to be contenders in the next 2-3 years, they will rely on a healthy and productive Soria to carry their bullpen. Soria is the Royals closer and do not get any other ideas on the subject.
18) Brian Wilson: San Francisco Giants
The Giants were the feel good story of 2011 and while the “fear the beard” motto was cute in its time, I think this story is done. Wilson has to get away from the beard and concentrate on what he does best: close ball games. Although five for six in saves this year, Wilson sports a brutal 7.94 ERA a pedestrian 4/6 BB/K ratio. The World Series champion Giants will give Wilson a lot of rope and I cannot foresee him losing his job. But with the World Series letdown could come a return to earth for several players, including Wilson. While he will still get 30+ saves, his numbers are showing that a market correct is in order. Wilson needs to get re-focused…he is the only game in town as the closer for the Giants.
19) Brandon Lyon: Houston Astros
The poster boy for mediocre closers, Lyon remains a frustration year-in and year-out. Four for six in saves opportunities, with a 4.32 ERA, 13 hits allowed in 8 1/3 inning and a dismal 2/3 BB/K ratio, Lyon is better suited to middle relief than closing. Lyon is a veteran on a young Astros team and while experience is supposed to help the young pitchers, his stats are hurting the team. With Melancon and Fulchino pitching so well, a changing of the guard is coming in Houston. Right now my money is on Melancon becoming the closer by May.
20) Francisco Rodriguez: New York Mets
Together with Papelbon, K-Rod had many doubters going into the year. Legal troubles and a declining team and numbers looked to spell the end for Rodriguez. His four saves in five opportunities has been great, together with his 2.35 ERA. His 6/13 BB/K ratio is showing that the arm and heat are back, but so is his wildness. K-Rod will get 30+ saves in my estimation, but may not so pretty getting there. Frankie is getting paid the big bucks and will have the job for 2011.
21) Jose Valverde: Detroit Tigers
The king of hot starts, Valverde has been four for four in saves on a very inconsistent Detroit Tigers team in 2011. His 1.04 ERA and 2/9 BB/K ratio have been spectacular. Valverde will have the job this year as he works towards another free agency run at seasons-end. Benoit is the closer in waiting and while he will have the job in 2012, will be the filler when called upon. The Tigers will stick with Valverde, period.
22) John Axford: Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching for a contending Brewers team, Axford’s numbers have not cut it this year. Three for five in saves, 7.36 ERA and a 6/8 BB/K ratio means that Axford is closing on borrowed time. I still expect Axford to get a little more rope to straighten himself out, but not for much longer. While Saito was my pick to take over the role at the start of the season, and poor health and inconsistency have plagued him. Same with LaTroy Hawkins, another failed closer in the Brewers’ pen. The dark horse for the role is Kameron Loe, the former Rangers starter and Japanese baseball survivor. Look for Loe, who has been the Brewers best reliever season to get the role any day now and to run with it into the forseeable future.
23) Drew Storen/ (Sean Burnett): Washington Nationals
I know your first reaction: is Sean Burnett not the closer? A 3.24 ERA, three for four in saves and 0/6 BB/K ratio- is that not closing numbers? Perhaps, but Burnett is like a mirage in the desert. You think you are seeing water, but its all an illusion. Storen with a 0.77 ERA, two for two in saves, six hits allowed in 11 2/3 innings and 4/8 BB/K ratio is the man. Storen has been groomed for the position is whole life and was drafted as a closer to become the Nationals ninth inning stopper. Burnett may still get the occasional opportunity but his saves opportunities are coming to an end. As Storen becomes nearly automatic, the job will be his for the next decade in Washington.
24) Matt Capps: Minnesota Twins
The Twins originally said they would bring Joe Nathan along slowly after missing a year due to surgery. What did they end up doing? Throwing him straight into the fire and destroying his pitching confidence and stats line. With a 9.82 ERA and 6/5 BB/K ratio, do not expect Nathan back in the role for a LONG time. Capps, acquired from Washington for catching prospect Ramos has now taken over the closing duties. Three for four in save opportunities, 4.09 ERA and a 0/5 BB/K ratio shows that Capps is ready to run with the job. Minnesota is well-known for steady starting pitching and I look for Capps to finish with a steady amount of saves. He may not blow hitters away anymore, but with continued control look for Capps to keep the job for most of 2011.
25) Francisco Cordero: Cincinnati Reds
For all the doom and gloom coming out of Cinci for Cordero, he has continued to put up great numbers. Three for three in saves, 2.00 ERA, a stingy five hits in nine innings pitched and 4/7 BB/K ratio. The changing of the guard is coming though for the Reds as you look at Chapman’s numbers. Throws 100+ MPH heat, nine scoreless innings, two hits in nine innings with a 7/9 BB/K ratio. This is another case that unless the incumbent implodes or gets injured, he will retain his role. The Reds rely on the Veteran Cordero and Dusty Baker is very loyal to his foot soldiers. Chapman is still showing wildness and the best course is to let him continue to develop as Cordero keeps saving games. A change is coming in 2012 but until then, Cordero is the Reds closer. If you like to gamble though, Chapman has a decent shot at the job… he is the heir apparent and the first reliever in line if needed.
26) Jon Rauch: Toronto Blue Jays
One of several new additions to the Jays pen, Rauch originally was supposed to keep the role warm for Frank Francisco until he returned from injury. Rauch on the season has a 2.08 ERA and is three for three in saves opportunities. While his 4/6 BB/K ratio is pedestrian, Rauch will have the job for the majority of the year in my opinion. While Francisco has the heat and the strikeout numbers, he has shown to be very inconsistent and erratic in the closers role from his time in Texas. Francisco will possibly get a shot at the role at some point early on this season, my money is still on Rauch. With so many closing options in Toronto including Dotel and Frasor, this situation is very difficult to handicap. At the end of the day, you either believe in Francisco or Rauch as the closer. My gut is saying Rauch.
27) Jordan Walden: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The next, great Angels closer, Walden has taken to the role and run with it. Ten scoreless innings, three for three in saves, three hits allowed in 9 1/3 innings and a 5/10 BB/K ratio are all impressive. Fernando Rodney, the veteran closer will be breathing down his neck the whole season. If not for his 8/7 BB/K ratio, Rodney has a 2.08 ERA of his own and only blown save on the season. As with all young pitchers, Walden will run into some trouble along the way. The question will be how he handles adversity. This is one team that I have faced several arguments on this season. I see Rodney taking back his job while Walden continues to be groomed into the next big thing. For me, experience and knowledge tends to usually win out and Rodney has an advantage in both departments over Walden. The job is Walden’s today and for quite some time, but 2-3 blown saves in a week can change things in a hurry. Another situation to keep an eye on.
28) Mitchell Boggs: St. Louis Cardinals
Where is Ryan Franklin? One for five in save opportunities and with a 7.88 ERA. Complaining about the fans of St. Louis won’t appease Cardinals 
management either. The 27-year-old Boggs is the newest closer on the carousel, with two saves in two opportunities, 1.59 ERA and outstanding 3/13 BB/K ratio. There are many people jumping on the Boggs bandwagon and for good reason. The kid is apparently coming into his own and has taken the job by the reigns. As is the case with Walden, we do not have enough of a track record to know the long-term potential of the kid. Again, 2-3 blown saves in a week can change the situation in a hurry. I still expect Franklin to straighten himself out and perhaps reclaim the job later in the year. But based on his solid work to-date, the closer in St. Louis is Boggs and the job is literally his to lose. Keep one eye open, just in case.
29) Kevin Gregg: Baltimore Orioles
Pitching in the Brandon Lyon sea of mediocrity, Gregg has been up-and-down this year for the upstart Orioles. Two saves in three opportunities, 4.50 ERA, and 4/6 BB/K ratio are nothing to write home about. Mike Gonzalez with a 10.80 ERA does not appear to be healthy and recovered to be able to compete for the role. Jeremy Accardo has a 2.08 ERA but an alarming 6/4 BB/K ratio. Koji Uehara, with a 1.35 ERA and 3/7 BB/K ratio is my pick for the Orioles closing job when Gregg inevitably begins to break down. The Orioles are lucky to have several options, with Simon originally being my original dark horse until legal troubles slowed down his season. But based on track history, I really like Uehara’s chances to claim the job by June, if not sooner.
30) (Jesse Crain): Chicago White Sox
I certainly saved the worst for last and the White Sox have had their share of bullpen woes in 2011. With one team on the season, Sale and Thornton have not been the saviors that Sox fans were expecting this year. With ERAs north of 6.00, neither one is likely to take the role anytime soon. Ohman and Pena have been fairly weak as well and the last two realistic survivors are Santos and Crain. Much press has been written on Santos, the converted pitcher who has pitched 9 2/3 scoreless innings with five hits allowed a 5/13 BB/K ratio. While many experts are already picking Santos, I am looking at the dark horse, Jesse Crain to take the role. The former Twin had a steady 2010 year and has started this year with a 1.74 ERA and spectacular 2/11 BB/K ratio. Santos is the darling of Chicago with his flame throwing ways, but the more experienced Crain appears to be just what the doctor ordered in Chicago. A situation that is far from unsettled, Thornton or Sale could grab a hold of the job at any time with some steady consecutive outings. But based on current numbers and future outlook, if you want my pick- it will be Crain. With such a strong offense and steady starting pitching, the Sox cannot afford to lose too many games in the 9th if they hope to take the AL Central. That is where a veteran as the anchor will prove to be best solution in the bullpen.
The state of closers is always a heated discussion in baseball circles every year. Probably the most volatile position in baseball, approximately 30% of opening day closers will still have their jobs by years-end. With injuries and failures, closers can come and go on a weekly basis. Today’s failed starters can be tomorrow’s superstar closers. Next week’s stoppers can also be minor league filler by August. All baseball fans, whether fans of teams or fantasy players, all get driven to the point of insanity because of closers. For every Mariano Rivera, there will be three Jordan Waldens, five Jonathan Broxtons and seven Brandon Lyons. I hope that you enjoyed reading the state of the union on MLB closers today. Although situations may have changed while I wrote this article (see Contreras) and even tomorrow, remember to keep an open mind and focus on where the next closers will be. The most effective relievers in the bullpen will usually get the first crack- it is the ones that can succeed under pressure that will keep their jobs.
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INJURY UPDATES: WEBB, SHEETS, FRANCISCO AND MORROW
MLB reports: Many Readers have been e-mailing me to find out the status of their favorite players currently on the MLB disabled list. One area of concern in baseball that I have addressed on many occasions is the injuries to pitchers in particular. While batters have their share of ailments, it seems that pitchers are most susceptible to the injury bug. If the names Dr. James Andrews and Dr. Lewis Yocum ring a bell, then you will understand what I mean.
The following players have received much requests from our readers. From our reports, here is the updates on each player:
Brandon Webb, Rangers: 15 day DL, Shoulder Surgery
As Webb’s surgery was performed by the Rangers team doctor Dr. Keith Meister, baseball experts felt that Texas had the best read on the health of the right-handed starter. Many experts were skeptical as to whether Webb would be able to return healthy and effective in 2011. At this point, the future of Webb remains cloudy. He threw a 70 pitch bullpen session with the ball club yesterday. Webb appears to be 4-6 weeks away from returning to the Rangers, which would equate to an end of the May, beginning of June scenario. I would be surprised at this point if Webb returns at all before the All-Star break. Webb has further indicated that he is willing to pitch out of the bullpen depending on the team’s needs. Conclusion: Texas is not counting on Webb this year and any returns from the former star pitcher will be a bonus. After such a lengthy absence from game action, it is possible that Webb’s return, if it comes to fruition, could be a short one.
Ben Sheets: Free Agent
After undergoing arm surgery and missing the 2009 season, Ben Sheets pitched for the Oakland Athletics in 2010. After an inconsistent start to the season, Sheet’s season ended in July when he required flexor tendon surgery. After this additional surgery and another missed year, I would be surprised if Sheets is able to return in 2012. At 33 years old and a history of arm issues, we have probably seen the last of Ben Sheets. Pitchers can only endure so many arm issues in their career and Sheets has appeared to have reached his limit. Conclusion: Retirement is on the doorstep.
Brandon Morrow, Blue Jays: 15 day DL, Inflammation Elbow
In the continuing line of baseball pitchers with various injuries and ailments, Brandon Morrow started off the year on the disabled list with inflammation of the elbow. The good news is that Morrow completed his final rehab stint for Class A Dunedin and is set to rejoin the Blue Jays this week. John Farrell, manager of the Blue Jays, confirmed this morning on the Fan 590 Sportsnet radio station that Morrow is expected to start either Friday or Saturday against the Rays and re-claim a spot in the Jays rotation. The 26-year-old Morrow has been both a starter and reliever in his career, settling in as a full-time starter in 2010. Making 26 starts, Morrow struck out a whopping 178 batters in 146 1/3 innings that year. The ceiling is very high on the youngster and as long as he is healthy, Morrow will continue to develop into a #2 starter for the up-and-coming Jays. Conclusion: Expect more visits to the disabled list in 2011 and into the future, but anything close to reasonable health will lead to improved statistics for the hard-throwing righthander.
Frank Francisco, Blue Jays: 15 day DL, Biceps
In the continuing search in baseball for closers, many baseball fans are curious as to the status of Frank Francisco of the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays have many bullpen options, including Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor and Jon Rauch. But with the trade of Mike Napoli to Texas, many people in baseball feel that Francisco is the heir apparent closer in Toronto. A much harder thrower than incumbent closer Jon Rauch, health and inconsistency have plagued the 31-year-old Francisco throughout his major league career. Reports indicate that Francisco threw a scoreless inning in his final rehab assignment for the class A club and will rejoin the Jays on Tuesday. As Rauch is 3 for 3 in save opportunities, John Farrell is unlikely to throw Francisco immediately into the closer role. But as spring training reports indicated that Francisco would be appointed the closer, the clock is likely ticking on Rauch’s 9th inning appearances for now. Conclusion: Once he returns and shows health, Francisco will likely start closing for the Jays within the next 2 weeks. Health aside, effectiveness will determine whether he keeps the role. Over the long-term, I see Rauch being the closer in 2011 for the majority of the year with Francisco returning to the set-up role he had maintained in Texas last year.
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2011 MLB CLOSERS- AN INSIDE LOOK
MLB reports: As readers know from my previous articles, the closer position in my opinion is the most volatile one in all of baseball. While I love the idea of a 9th inning hard thrower coming in to blow away the other team to get the save, the identity of the closer on each team can change day-to-day and week-to-week. Some teams came into the season with a set closer in place, while other teams are still working by committee. After completing opening weekend, let’s take a look around baseball to see how some closers have fared thus far.
1) Pittsburgh Pirates- Joel Hanrahan: After some talk of Hanrahan and Evan Meek sharing the closing duties for the Pirates, Hanrahan has taken the role and run with it. In three games, Hanrahan already has three saves and is yet to give up an earned run. His 5/1 K/BB ratio is great. With Meek getting blown early and often (21.60 ERA), it looks like the Pirates have their closer for the foreseeable future.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers- Jonathan Broxton: With three saves of his own, Broxton looks strong to start the season. Until you notice that he also given up two homeruns and has a 1/0 K/BB ratio. This means that Broxton is giving up runs and not striking guys out despite being handed early season leads. A recipe for disaster, Broxton will need to shape up in a hurry or risk losing his job in the next week or two. Monitor this situation closely.
3) New York Yankees- Mariano Rivera: The only other closer with three saves on the season, Mo is just being Mo. He is as automatic as closers come and requires no further explanation.
4) Atlanta Braves- Craig Kimbrel: Another possible closer-by-committee situation has turned into Kimbrel having the job exclusively to start the year. With two saves, five k’s in two innings thus far, Kimbrel has been lights-out. As long as he stays consistent, the job is his for now and possibly the next few years.
5) Chicago Cubs- Carlos Marmol: After signing a big contract, much was expected from Marmol. The other closer besides Kimbrel to have two saves, Marmol has been hit and miss to start the year. With few options on the horizon, expect Marmol to be good and finish with 20-30 saves for a middle-of-the-pack Cubs team.
6) Anaheim Angels- Fernando Rodney: With a 13.50 ERA and 4/2 BB/K ratio, Rodney is on a very short leash at this point. With one or two more rocky outings, expect Scoscia to turn to other options until Rodney straightens himself out. I see Rodney being the closer for the majority of the year, but April has not been kind to him thus far.
7) Minnesota Twins- Joe Nathan: I was at the Jays/Twins game on Sunday and got to watch both Nathan and Capps pitch. I cannot say at this point which pitcher has the advantage, although Nathan looked very rusty after a year off. If Nathan does not come together, I can definitely see Capps taking the job for the foreseeable future. Coming back from injuries is tricky and I would not be relying on Nathan at this point yet.
8) Arizona Diamondbacks- J.J. Putz: So far, so good in Arizona. With one save under his belt, Putz had 2 k’s in his first opportunity. After a horror of a bullpen last year, Kirk Gibson will enjoy a year of Putz as his closer in Arizona.
Remember, it is still early and much can change over the course of this month. Closers are often one home run or blister away from losing their positions. They are a nightmare for fantasy players and even bigger stress sources for baseball fans. Keep your expectations in check and remember to judge the players on the totality of their work: one bad inning will rarely make or break a person’s career.
Around the Majors: Players of Note from Monday April 4th
1) Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis led the surging Orioles to another victory. Roberts had a three-run home run for the O’s and Markakis chipped in with three hits of his own.
2) Jake Arrieta got the win for the Orioles over the Tigers, pitching six innings and only one earned run. On the flipside, Porcello gave up five runs in five innings, with 9 hits allowed. The Tigers pitching has been weak out of the gate.
3) Martin Prado and Dan Uggla both homered for the Braves in a win over the Brewers. Nice to see Uggla getting on track.
4) Ricky Weekes continued his torrid start to the season with his third home run. Highly touted for years, if he stays healthy, 2011 could be his year.
5) Beachy was outstanding in his first start of the year. Only one earned run over six innings, he had a 1/7 BB/K ratio. Kimbrel dominated for his second save by striking out the side in the ninth.
6) Saito was bombed in the 8th for the Brewers, giving up two earned runs and three hits in the 8th. With Axford’s struggles to boot, the closing situation in Milwaukee remains murky.
7) Alfonso Soriano had two hits and home run for the Cubs in their win over the Diamondbacks. Soto also chipped in with two hits as well.
8) A-Rod and Posada both went deep for the Yankees as they beat the twins. The Yankees bats have been on fire.
9) Ivan Nova had a quality start for the Yankees, with three earned runs in his six innings pitched. He finished with a 1/3 BB/K ratio.
10) Texas remained undefeated as Nelson Cruz hit his fourth home run in four games. Always a power threat, Cruz can break forty bombs if healthy.
11) Elvis Andrus also went deep for Texas and is hitting .385 on the season.
12) Derek Holland continued to show the Mike Maddux magic by having a quality start, seven innings, three earned runs and a 1/5 BB/K ratio. Maddux is the new Dave Duncan.
13) Milton Bradley hit third for the Mainers and finished with three hits. With a .353 average, Milton is surprising a lot of people. Let’s see if he can keep it up.
14) Erik Bedard in his first start of the season after a long layover from injuries returned and pitched ok. Three earned in five innings, Bedard gave up two home runs in the loss.
15) McCutchen and Walker continued to lead the Pirates as they upped their record to 3-1 by defeating the Cardinals. McCutchen hit his second home run of the year and Walker finished with three hits.
16) Charlie Morton was the next Pirates pitcher to star. One earned over six innings, though of concern was his 5/2 BB/K ratio. Morton better watch those walks if he hopes to be successful this year. A decent fifth starter, I wouldn’t expect much from him yet on a young Pirates team.
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MLB Opening Day Preview: Schedule and Pitching Previews
MLB reports: With the 2011 MLB season about to commence, literally hours away at this moment- my thoughts continue to centre on the Holy Grail: Opening Day. This year, there are 12 teams playing on Thursday March 31st with the remaining teams playing the next day. For each MLB fan rooting for their respective team, there are 15 different opening day games that will be the focal point for them. Regardless of the city you live in or the team you root for, the first game of the year is the most exciting. It is time to shake the snow off your boots, grab your jersey and tickets and get ready for the start of baseball. For you, the diehards, I present the matchups and probable pitchers for each game.
In my brief analysis of each game, I have taken a slight twist in my analysis. I have decided not to crunch the numbers and take the stats route. To predict the outcomes of games, most stat-heads tend to look at historical opening day numbers for each team, head-to-head records, home/away records, day/night games, etc. This article contains none of the above. I am simply looking at the teams, taking a feel for each lineup and starting pitcher for each team, in performing my discussion. I was planning to post this article in a couple of days but with the enthusiasm of opening day on the horizon, I simply could not wait. Thus MLB fans, I present to you: The breakdown of the MLB Opening Day lineup. (Note: all game times are EST. Starting pitchers are subject to change, especially for injuries. Games may be delayed due to weather conditions)
Thursday March 31, 2011
1) Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals:
1:05pm: Derek Lowe vs. Livian Hernandez
There will be 2 games to start the year on Thursday at 1:05pm and this will be the first game previewed. America’s team, the Braves vs. the Nationals in the Nation’s capital. The Nationals are a nice, young exciting team with a great deal of buzz surrounding the team. Unfortunately, neither of its 2 brightest stars-to-be, Strasburg and Harper will not be a part of the opening day lineup. The Braves have a strong, young team led by Heyward and Freeman. Derek Lowe is an experienced veteran who gets the opening day nod out of respect. Livian Hernandez, on the other hand, is the opening day starter by default. The Nationals fans will be likely going home disappointed on this day, as the Braves will be the victors in a high scoring opener.
2) Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
1:05pm: Justin Verlander vs. C.C. Sabathia
The next opening game of the year to start the year comes from new Yankee Stadium, as 2 historical teams matchup in what should be an excellent pitching matchup. Verlander and Sabathia are 2 of the strongest pitchers in the majors and should go toe-to-toe in this game. While I see the hitters having the advantage in this game while the pitchers break into the season in a strong hitting park, smart money is the Yankees taking the win in their home park.
3) Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds
2:10pm: Yovanni Gallardo vs. Edinson Volquez
This game is the one that will catch my attention the most on Thursday. Two of the most exciting offensive teams in the majors, each led by their young strikeout artists. Gallardo and Volquez are cut from the same mold: when on, both are untouchable. When both are having difficulties, they can be time bombs. In the Cincinnati bandbox, I am predicting a high scoring game and a Reds victory. I am a big Gallardo supporter, but I can’t see opening in Cincinnati working well for him.
4) L.A. Angels at Kansas City Royals
4:10pm: Jered Weaver vs. Luke Hochevar
On paper this matchup looks very easy to analyze and in reality, it is. Weaver is a stud hurler for the Angels, a team with strong defense and fairly balanced offense. The Royals have Cabrera and Francouer in the outfield and Hochevar as their “ace”. The Royals fans are fortunate to be opening the season at home. This will be the last of their fortunes on this day as Weaver and the Angels should easily have their way with a Royals team in their final year of rebuilding as respectability begins for them in 2012.
5) San Diego Padres at St. Louis Cardinals
4:15pm: Tim Stauffer vs. Chris Carpenter
The young and surprising Padres bring their smoke and mirror show to St. Louis to face the Cards and Chris Carpenter. With one of my hyped young hurlers Matt Latos on the shelf, Tim Stauffer gets the nod for the opener for the Padres. With Adrian Gonzalez in Boston, the Padres will find a difficult time to score runs this year. Stauffer, stellar in the bullpen and spot starts for the Padres in 2010, is now moved into the rotation full time this year. Carpenter, one of the best pitchers in the game, will prove to be stingy at home. Regardless of how many runs the Cardinals score on this day, 2 runs will be enough for the Cardinals to start their year with a win.
6) San Francisco Giants vs. L.A. Dodgers
8:00pm: Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw
This will be a premier matchup, as the World Series champions Giants face their arch-rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Lincecum vs. Kershaw will be a pitching matchup for the ages. I see these pitchers battling all night, with the Dodgers emerging victorious. Opening night will be exciting for the Giants, but the hangover effect on the road leans to an advantage to L.A. on this night.
Friday April 1, 2011
7) Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies
1:05pm: Brett Myers vs. Roy Halladay
Day 2 of Opening Day finds Brett Myers coming back to his old stomping grounds to face Halladay and the Phillies. I don’t want to formally go on record and say that Halladay will throw a no-no in the opener…so….let’s just say, I have already said enough. The Phillies fans will be smelling blood and it should not take long for Myers to be shaken as the Phillies hitters have their way with him. Houston goes down quietly and quickly in this one.
8) Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs
2:20pm: Kevin Correia vs. Ryan Dempster
Unless you are a Pirates or Cubs fans…I imagine that only the diehards will be watching this one. Kevin Correia in my estimation was a solid pickup for the Pirates and with decent run support will win at least 12 games in Pittsburgh. Dempster, as a steady pitcher for the Cubs will prove to be a worthy adversary. This game will boil down to which team gets the better pitching and my crystal balls sees a Pirates victory in this one.
9) Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
3:05pm: Mark Buehrle vs. Fausto Carmona
In the seemingly never-ending Opening Day matchup between the Chisox and Indians, Buehrle and Carmona face off in Cleveland. As most White Sox fans will attest, Buehrle can be steady at the best of times and extremely frustrating in others. The Opening Day nod was given to Buehrle by Ozzie out of respect and years of service, which is well deserved and applauded. But with the hot hand of Fausto going into the opener, the Indians will squeak out a victory in the opener in one of the few bright moments that will likely shine in Cleveland’s otherwise rebuilding 2011 season.
10) Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
4:05pm: Jon Lester vs. C.J. Wilson
I would have loved to be at this game, as this game features the matchup of two of the best MLB offenses and dynamic left-handed pitchers. This game is being in played Texas, which tends to favor the hitters in the summer…but alas, this game is being played in April. The Red Sox will be buzzing with excitement with the additions of Gonzalez and Crawford, with the home return of Salty. After falling short in the World Series, I foresee the Rangers coming to the game focused and determined. Wilson will be on his game as the Rangers start 2011 with a hard fought victory over the Red Sox in a low scoring game.
11) Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
4:10pm: Ian Kennedy v. Ubaldo Jimenez
One word: Ubaldo. The man with what, a 0.70 ERA in the first half of last year? Ubaldo translates from Spanish to English to mean unhittable. The Rockies take this game in 2 hours or less.
12) Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
7:07pm: Carl Pavano vs. Ricky Romero
My live Opening Day game is in Toronto, Canada as Pavano and the Twins take on Romero and the Jays. Both pitchers come into this game after difficult final outings in their last respective spring training games. I was impressed with the Pavano re-signing with the Twins, as there is an excellent fit for him with this team. Romero, while a young exciting pitcher, is still growing into his role as ace on an up-and-coming Toronto team. While game 2 of this series features the true exciting pitching matchup of Liriano and Drabek, the fans attending opening day will have to settle to watch a decent game which will feature a victorious Twins team.
13) Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
7:10pm: Mark Guthrie vs. David Price
David Price, who will prove to be a serious Cy-Young candidate this year, faces the Orioles at home. My preseason favorites to win the AL East, this game should be a cake walk for the Rays and Price. While the Orioles will have a .500 team this year, Opening Night will not be their night.
14) New York Mets at Florida Marlins
7:10pm: Mike Pelfrey vs. Josh Johnson
Josh Johnson, when healthy, is one of the top pitchers in baseball. Mike Pelfrey, pitching for the bottom-feeder Mets, is like a lamb being led to the slaughter. Playing their final opener in their current home park, the soon-to-be Miami Marlins will give the Mets the first of their likely 90+ losses of the year. Not even close.
15) Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
10:05pm: Felix Hernandez at Trevor Cahill
The final game of the year features the “Moneyball” Oakland A’s hosting King Felix and the Mariners. The A’s will have an exciting young team that has some of the strongest pitching in the AL with an improved offense that should finish 2nd in the AL West, with the chance of a division win. The Mariners, a young team in rebuild mode, have the reigning AL Cy Young winner on the hill. Despite many bumps ahead in their season, I would never bet against King Felix. Opening Day ends with a Mariners victory and the season being completely underway.
As you, I cannot wait for the season to start. Spring training has been exciting and now it is time for the game and stats to count. While March has been about the hitters and pitchers to get their innings and at-bats in, Opening Day means that the games will be played the way they are meant to. It’s a long MLB season, with 162 games ahead for each of our teams. But with all the teams starting with a 0-0 record, everyone has an equal chance of success. With that in mind and knowing the matchups, let’s get ready for 3 more nights of sleep and then it will be time to play ball. Have a great season everyone; I have a feeling 2011 will be one of the best MLB seasons of all time.
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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: National League
MLB reports: In part 2 of my series on sleeper targets, I move to the National League. On each team, I pinpoint the player that will likely drop in your draft or sit on the waiver wire come opening day. These are the value players that will in my estimation make or break your fantasy year. Let’s get to it:
Cubs – Carlos Pena: Yes. A $10 million player can be undervalued. Especially one that hit below .200 in 2010. At 100 walks and 30+ home runs, Pena would definitely have a place on my fantasy team. Check his 2009 season. .227 average and a .356 OBP. 87 walks and 39 home runs that year. Pena can likely be had around the 7th round and as late as the 12th round depending on your league. You will never get better production at such a reduced rate. Buy low on Pena.
Nationals – Drew Storen: As I write this article, I see a tweet that Storen/Burnett will share closer duties to start the year. Closers by committee tend to scare off many fantasy teams but it shouldn’t scare you. When you know your guy will have the job for most of the year and nail it down, especially in a keeper league, nab him. Storen was highly touted in college, groomed as a closer and will be the Nationals closer for the next 10 years. If you draft right, he can do the same for you. Storen’s spring woes mean value to you. Don’t think fringe closer, bet on your #1 stopper on a young team on the rise.
Brewers – Takashi Saito: I am a big John Axford fan, but the closer position is volatile to say the least. Injuries and performance creates huge fluctuations. Statistics show that at least 40% of the closers to start the year won’t have their jobs in September. Saito has the experience and track record and will get the ball first when called upon. Saito may be closer insurance on your bench to start the year, but for a guy likely to go undrafted in most leagues, certainly worth the gamble.
Marlins – Logan Morrison: See Storen. LoMo was very highly touted to start the spring but a poor March has likely put a damper on many teams’ expectations. It shouldn’t change your projections. Spring numbers don’t mean much on a grand scale and young players with big expectations often try too hard and hinder themselves early on. Once the season starts, the good ones know how to refocus and get back to the basics. Morrison is the next Will Clark/ Mark Grace. Sweet swing and patience personified. Rank him high and draft low. If he falls to the 8th round or after, nab him and enjoy him for the next 12 years.
Diamondbacks – Miguel Montero: Another highly touted prospect seemingly forever that has been sidelined year after year by injuries. I see Montero ready to take the next step. A catcher with good power doesn’t grow on trees. Keep an eye on Montero and if your other catcher targets are gone by the 10th-12th rounds, consider him. The potential is still there and he can still be affordable.
Rockies – Chris Iannetta: I see Chris as similar to Montero but with more potential and a lower price tag. Despite repeated chances, Iannetta has yet to break through to the next level. With a good eye at the plate, pop and the think air of Denver, I see 25+ home runs and 75 walks in his future. He is worth the small gamble as his ceiling remains high at 28. Colorado is giving him another chance, so should you.
Mets – Francisco Rodriguez: Between the Mets issues, lack of talent and K-Rod’s own legal troubles, few teams will likely be targeting him on draft day. Rodriguez went from closer keeper to outcast seemingly overnight. 25 saves and a 2.20 ERA in 2010 sound positive to me. Remember, bad teams often play in closer games. K-Rod could get you easily 30 saves at his lowest cost ever. Think about it.
Phillies – Raul Ibanez: I rarely recommend targeting 39 outfielders. My general rule is to stay away from the 35+ crowd, injuries and performance issues tend to occur quicker with the older player generation. But Ibanez had 34 home runs in 2009 with 93 runs and rbis that year. His batting average and obp were relatively consistent to his historical norms, only the power seemed to be going down. Ibanez got going later in the season and hopefully an offseason in his revitalization chamber helped (no joke, he does own one). In that ballpark and with the loss of Utley and Werth, Ibanez could see time in the 3rd and 5th slots. At the very least he will be a decent 5th outfielder and perform as a 3rd on many nights.
Pirates – Ryan Doumit: For a team with as little talent as the Pirates right now, Doumit continues to stand out for me. I featured him in a profile piece this week, check out the archives to read my full evaluation of Ryan. Bottom line is that he is a switch hitting catcher that can help you in almost every category. With outfield and first base eligibility as well, Doumit will offer versatility to your fantasy team in the case of injuries. The most likely scenario is that he will be traded to a contender between opening day and the all-star game. I still smell a breakout year and with much to prove, Doumit could see 2011 as his year.
Cardinals – Colby Rasmus: A highly touted prospect, difference of opinions between La Russa and Rasmus has burnt out some of Colby’s bright light. But with Pujols looming in the line-up, I believe this kid is only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential. Seemingly around forever, Rasmus is only 24 years old. 30+ home runs with 100+ rbis are on the way…buy early to avoid the 1st round price tag in a year or two. 5th-7th round bargain in my book.
Braves – Mike Minor: After breezing through the minors last year, the 23 year old made it to the Braves in his 2nd professional season. Having lost his 5th starter job in spring training, Minor might be off to the bullpen or minors to start the year. I see Tommy Hanson potential in this kid and so do the braves. Minor could go anywhere from the 15th round to undrafted in many leagues. With good starting pitching at such a high premium these days in baseball, there should be room on your bench reserved for Minor.
Reds – Yonder Alonso: Alonso and Logan Morrison almost go hand-in-hand for me. One of the Reds top prospects and A-Rod friends/protégés, Alonso is a man with a stellar bat and no position to play. Blocked at 1B by Votto, the Reds have not expressed the confidence to-date to name Alonso as a future outfielder. Seemingly a change of scenery is in order, but this kid has endless potential in his future. Buy low and thank me later as you watch walk after walk and the doubles/home runs fly off his bat. I see Alonso as one of the special, rare superstars to-be in baseball. Watch him play, I think you will agree.
Astros – Brett Wallace: Another highly touted prospect for what seems forever, Wallace is now on his 4th organization in his short professional career. Traded for the likes of Matt Holliday, Michael Taylor and Anthony Gose, several organizations have shown a lot of faith in the capabilities of this third baseman turned first baseman. The bat is real, as Wallace was considered to have the strongest bat in his draft year class. With the downturn of the Astros, many people seem to forget the potency of their park. Wallace is the next face of the Astros and hopefully your fantasy team.
Dodgers – Andre Ethier: I debated long and hard between Ethier and Broxton in this spot. I definitely see Broxton rebounding this year to reclaim his spot as a top-5 baseball closer. He is that good and an off-season of rest and exercise should do the trick. With Ethier, despite having 1st round potential, I tend to see him very undervalued in fantasy drafts as a whole. The former Athletic displays the power and patience that I most value in a hitter. A possible future MVP candidate one day, the likely 5th round pick is almost certain to give you a minimum level of production, with a higher ceiling to come. Jump in early, I value Ethier much higher than Kemp if that gives you a better idea on his ranking to me.
Padres – Matt Latos: This one you for sure did not see coming. With Latos mania running wild, you must think that I am exaggerating. I am not. As a whole I am not crazy about the Padres as a team, similarly to the Mets. But Latos is a special pitcher, one of the only ones I would consider drafting in the 3rd round. His low ERA and WHIP combined with wins potential sold me. Don’t reach at any cost, but even drafting early will give you the numbers that your pitching staff requires in fairly consistent fashion.
Giants – Buster Posey: As World Series champs in 2010, players on the Giants will likely come with a higher price tag this year based on the team’s miracle run. Don’t overpay…unless you are buying this generation’s Johnny Bench. Posey can do it all at the plate and still has room to grow. A top 5 rounds pick? Definitely. Be prepared to go as high as the 2nd or 3rd round but believe me, you could do worse than getting the strongest player at the weakest position to fill in baseball.
I hope you have enjoyed my look into fantasy baseball sleepers. Good luck managing your fantasy team and hopefully I have been able to make some of your roster decisions much clearer.
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: American League
MLB reports: Based on the popularity of my article this week on my 10 fantasy baseball tips, I keep the fantasy talk alive today. For those fantasy teams in need to fill key positions, sleepers are always sought after. Before, during and after drafts, fantasy players are always looking for value finds. Let’s cut to the chase. I present my sleeper pick for each MLB team. My criteria was based on production and availability. I looked for good value that would come at a low cost. Here goes starting with my A.L. Sleeper picks.
Orioles- Matt Wieters: A highly touted backstop, Wieters has started slow in his MLB career. Catchers take time to develop. Grab him from the 5th round and on.
Red Sox- Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Keeping the catcher-theme going, it was not long ago that Salty was blocked by McCann and the centerpiece of the Teixeira deal. Boston has faith in him as their #1, you should as well, as your #2.
Indians- LaPorta: I was high on Matt as soon as he was drafted by the Brewers. The kid can just plain hit. Pressure from the C.C. deal dying down. 2011, he will break out.
Tigers- Porcello: Rick’s stuff is just nasty. Will be a bona fide #1 one day. Worth the risk.
Yankees- Granderson: Lost year in 2011 and strained oblique to start the year. Best time to buy in on Curtis, 20/20/20/20 potential still there.
Jays- Rauch: While most leagues jump on Francisco, I would take Rauch. Proven and likely to grab job early on.
Angels- Rodney: People may feel nervous with Fernando but the saves will be there. Be realistic and if falls late, grab him.
Rays- McGee: Closer-by-committee are 3 of the most dreaded words in the fantasy baseball dictionary. A smart shopper knows how to spot the victor as committees rarely last. My money is on McGee, not Peralta. McGee has the stuff and drive to take the job.
White Sox- Flowers: A.J. may be back but its to babysit and bring along Flowers. Kenny was so high on this kid that he traded Vasquez for him. Great discipline and power at the plate, he will be up this year and take form.
Royals- Gordon: Former Baseball America #1 prospect, Alex has become mud in a short time. He can become a success overnight. Don’t miss the boat.
Twins- Blackburn: I simply love this kid. He doesn’t walk anyone and is simply great when he’s on. 15 wins could be in the cards.
A’s- Carter: Chris Carter (not the ex-met, red sox player is a beast. He tore up AA pitching in 2008. He was traded in packages for Haren and Quentin. Grab him late.
Mariners- Pineda: the #2 to Felix as #1, Michael Pineda is the real deal. Great stuff and character rated high likly to be up in June. Lock him up.
Rangers- Napoli: Do you like 30+ home runs from your catchers? Ignore Torrealba. Remember what I tell you.
Thank you for the read and follow of our site. Please forward any fantasy questions to mlbreports@gmail.com. Tomorrow night, I will post my NL sleepers. Enjoy!
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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