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MLB Reports Bettting Results For The 2016 Year: We Made A Profit For The Third Straight Campaign!

I take my betting style from a philosophy used from a few decades of research. This book was one of the templates followed for success

I take my betting style from a philosophy used from a few decades of research. This book was one of the templates followed for success.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) 

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Disclaimer:  All bets were made in the State Of Nevada, or via Canada (by Chuck Booth) where bets are legal online. 

So it was an interesting wager year.  I nailed the World Series winner, but never did place on money on them in any futures.  I was able to hedge bet because I had the Dodgers at a 15/1 Odds from the previous winter.

I absolutely killed it on Player Prop Betting – running the whole table.  I was on fire in the playoffs.  My best regular season wager for wins ( TB Rays under) was nice, but I took a beating on the rest of the over/under on victories across the board.

My pick of the Baltimore Orioles at 28/1 – to win the American League Pennant – set me up to hedge bet enough of the Junior Circuit playoffs, that I could help rescue my wagering season.

Chuck Booth and I combined for all of these picks, and we use the same gambling template for how we put down cabbage.

The real difference of profit came down to our perfect prognostication of Giancarlo Stanton winning the Derby helped us in breaking even and winning some cash at the end of the campaign.

Based on conversations with Chuck Booth (who watched the Orioles play 40 times in 2015 live, we loved that the O's were the 13th favorite club out of the AL, with starting odds of +2800 to win the American League. It was that $50 bet that opened the door for some hedge betting that salvaged our season.

Based on conversations with Chuck Booth (who watched the Orioles play 40 times in 2015 live), we loved that the O’s were the 13th favorite club out of the AL, with starting odds of +2800 to win the American League. It was that $50 bet that opened the door for some hedge betting that salvaged our season.

(Black Parenthesis are new notes from Nov of 2016 throughout the post)

(2015 Winter Wagering Notes)

As soon as Zack Greinke signed with the Diamondbacks in winter of 2015, I had my buddy Chuck (MLB Reports Owner here) wager $100 on a 40/1 odd for Arizona to win the 2016 World Series before the line moved.  The next week it jumped all the way to +1500.

(This turned out feeble yes).

I have since bet $50 on the Dodgers at their prior value of +1500 – while now already jumping to +1000.  I also have thrown down $60 on both the Nats and Mets at +1100. I am all about the National League winning the Fall Classic this year.

I am picking the Cubs to win the Fall Classic in tomorrow’s Predictions, but the +450 = +600 odds they have all offseason doesn’t send my skirt up in the air.  No value there.

The only cash I have thrown down on the American League is for the Mariners to win the AL at +1300, and also the Orioles to win the American League at +2800 respectively.  I took neither to win the Fall Classic. 

I will be selecting the Jays to meet the Cubs in the World Series, but again I can’t warrant betting +1000 on the Canadian franchise, as I would take the Mets, Nats, Giants or Cubs in a best of 7 against them.  The AL total for the Jays at +500 is not worth any cabbage.

(Last winters over/under totals had me rushing to bet with Atlantis Casino in Reno, NV.  i would later find out that they were more on the mark for these totals, but then again I said all along the favorite overall to win the World Series would do one of these years)

ALL $60 Wagers:

Mets to win the World Series at 11/1 – Pays $660 –

Nats to win the World Series at 11/1 – Pays $660

Total Bets:  $120 (Total Losses -120)

(Analysis in November 2016)

I did not have a great year for all bets encompassing on yearly win totals.  It was my worst record of all bets for the year.  Luckily I was strong in all other categories.

ALL $50 Wagers:

SF Giants: Over 90 wins (-115)

(best record at the ALL – Star Break – but had an abysmal second half – resulting in 87 wins only – Loss.

Total Losses – $170)

LA Dodgers: Over 87 wins (-110)

(won this going away with 91 victories – $45.45 profit, total losses now at 124.55)

St. Louis Cardinals: Over 87.5 wins (-110)

(The Red Birds fought injury all year and fell under with just 86 wins total losses now at $174.55)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Over 87 wins (-105)

(This was a horrible year for the Bucs with only 78 wins, total losses now at $224.55)

Washington Nationals: Over 87 wins (-115)

(Trea Turner helped ignite the second half – and the team to 95 wins.  Won $43.31, total losses now $181.24)

NY Mets:  Over 88 wins (-110)

(Missed out on this result by one win at 87, total losses now $231.24)

Chicago Cubs: Over 89 Wins (-120)

If this wasn’t the easiest win ever for a wager based on the 103 win season, $41.67 profit, total losses now at $190.57.)

All Wagers – $50

Houston Astros: Over 85.5 wins (-110)

A seesaw saw this look unattainable, then winnable – before a bad September stretch, loss at 84 wins, total losses now $240.57)

SD Padres:  Under 74 wins (+100)

(won this wager against the Pod Squad with them registering just 68 wins – profit of $50.00, total losses back down to $190.57)

Cincinnati Reds:  Under 71 wins (-120)

(Despite a late rally,  I still collected a win on this wager since they won just 68,, profit $41.67, total losses now at $148.90)

Milwaukee Brewers: Under 71.5 wins (-110)

(The Brew Crew stunned me by how decent they were, picking up 73 victories even after trading Jonathan Lucroy.  Total losses at $198.90)

Colorado Rockies:  Under 68.5 wins (+100)

(Pitching was a lot better than I gave them credit for, nailing down 75 wins, total losses at $248.90).

Philadelphia Phillies:  Under 66.5 wins (+100)

(The Phightins played better than thought to0, with 71 wins.. Total losses at $298.9)

Atlanta Braves:  Under 65 wins (+100)

(Atlanta was much better in the second half of the year, and giving Freddie Freeman protection with a surprising pick up of Matt Kemp.  They tallied 68 wins, and pushed my total losses to $348.9)

To win the Overall MLB Regular Season HR crown in 2016

(End Analysis in November of 2016:  I lost all the bets in this bracket. I did have Arenado sniffing the lead all year, and also had the nice value odd of Chris Carter at 300/1, and he represented well with 34 Jacks.  Schwarber of course got hurt real early in the year.  Machado and Cespedes also crack 30+ HRs each.  Stanton had too many injuries to compete.  He still won us the HR Derby later on in the season.)

Giancarlo Stanton $100 on 7/1 odd pays $700 profit

Nolan Arenado $35 on 22/1 odd pays $770 profit

Yoenis Cespedes $10 on 100/1 odd pays $1000 profit.

Manny Machado $10 on 100/1 odd pays $1000 profit.

Kyle Schwarber $7 on 100/1 odd pays $700 profit.

Chris Carter, $4 on 300/1 odd pays $1200 profit.

Total Bets:  $166 – Total Losses now $504.9

Added to the list in March – ALL bet365.com,

Baltimore Orioles $50 Bet to win the American League at 28/1 – Pays$5 $1550 on bet365.com

Baltimore Orioles $39 Bet to win the AL East at +13/1 odd – $546

KC Royals – $115 Bet on them to go over 84.5 wins on bet365.com – Pays $215.00

(KC really killed me in bets.  I gave up some of the money I had won previously in 2014 and 2015 on them.)


2016 MLB REGULAR SEASON INDIVIDUAL PROPS

Miguel Cabrera to win the AL MVP $60 at 7/1 odds – Pays $490

More than 4.5 no hitters for the year – $50 at +115?  Yes for a $50 Wager- Pays $107.5

(Lost these 1st five selections for the year, however was able to use the Orioles bet to hedge at least.

Total losses now at $758.9)

Will any pitcher strikeout 16 batters for the year at -140?  Yes  for a $100 Wager – Pays 171.42

(This was a great wager and Max Scherzer delivered me a 20 K effort.  I would have also won with a Danny Duffy 16 punchout contest later in the year. )

Total Losses now at $687.58

ALL Bets – $30

MOST HR’s By: Any Player
Over 44½ (-110)
Under 44½ (-110)
Take the Over on this for sure.  Chris Davis had 47 HRs last year, and should have a crack to break the 45+ HR barrier again. 

If he doesn’t do it, than I would peg Giancarlo Stanton for this mark (if healthy).  Of course Bryce Harper and Mike Trout could pass this total if all things fall right as well.

(Mark Trumbo nailed 47 bolts, and helped me in the win column here for $27.26 profit.)

Total losses now at $660.52

MOST RUNS By: Any Player
Over 121½ (-110)
Under 121½ (-110)

Josh Donaldson barely eclipsed this last year in his MVP season – and could eclipse this with a full year of Troy Tulowitzki backing up Jose Bautista and Edwin EncarnacionBryce Harper scored 118 runs last year – and his supporting cast left a lot of chances to reel him in even more. 

Harper reached base 300 times in 2015.  While I think his BA might go down this season,  I think his Intentional Walks soar through the roof.

I have to think one of the 2 gentlemen go over this mark.

(Mike Trout reached home 123 times, with both Mookie Betts and Josh Donaldson scoring 122 runs each as well. Profit of $27.26, Total losses now of $633.25)

MOST STOLEN BASES By: Any Player
Over 63½ (-110)

Again pick the over.  Billy Hamilton should steal well over 70 Bags with Cincinnati giving him a chance to bat all year with no worry about the Reds losing at all.  Dee Gordon thieved 58 bags last year – and is capable of going over 63 himself.

(If Billy Hamilton (58 SB in 411 AB) hadn’t have been hurt, he would have easily gone over. Jonathan Villar barely missed out with 62 Swipes.

Total losses now at $663.25)

MOST TRIPLES By : Any Player
Over 12½ (-120)
Under 12½ (+100)

Very surprised on how low this is.  15 Triples is completely achievable for a lot of guys.   I mean Evan Gattis had 11 3 baggers last campaign.

(3 guys with 11 3 – Baggers in Brandon Crawford, Cesar Hernandez and Chris Owings, – but none hit the 13 I needed, total losses now at $693.25)

MOST LOSSES By: Any Pitcher
Over 17 (-120)
Under 17 (+100)

With 6 clubs in the National League approaching the 100 loss barrier, I fully expect someone to be headed to the Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman 2003 status.

(Thanks to a brutal year for each James Shields and Chris Archer both being on the wrong end of 19 games, I cashed this one. total losses at $668.25)

MOST STRIKEOUTS By: Any Pitcher
Over 276½ (-110)
Under 276½ (-110)

The theme is over all the way.  Clayton Kershaw fanned 301 guys – and Chris Sale sent 274 batters back to ride pine even though he missed out on 3 Game Starts.

(Max Scherzer to the rescue again with his 284 whiffs. Profit of $27.25, total losses at $639)

MOST RBI’s By: Any Player
Over 127½ (-110)
Under 127½ (-110)

Over.  Over.  Over.  Harper, Stanton, Donaldson, Bryant all may top 120 RBI.  Plenty of guys in contract years like Yoenis Cespedes, Bautista and Encarnacion could take a run.

(Nolan Arenado saved my bacon with 133 knocked in, and made up for Encarnacion and David Ortiz just falling 1 RBI short. Profit of $27.25, total losses at 611.75)

MOST HITS By: Any Player
Over 208½ (-110)
Under 208½ (-110)

Okay,  We have found our 1st under.  200 hits is hard in today’s world.  Gordon and Altuve both accomplished the feat last year, but were uder the 208.5 clip.

I see a slight regression for Gordon here, and Altuve should be right around the 200 base knocks area. The best of the Average hitters like Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Cabrera and Trout all walk so much that this may be too hard to accomplish.

My pick for a guy to do it would be Xander Bogaerts, who belted 197 hits in 654 PA’s as a 22-year-old last year.

Jose Altuve at 216 Base Knocks, and Mookie Betts at 214 both eclipsed the mark, Total losses of $641.75)

MOST DOUBLES By: Any Player
Over 51½ (-110)
Under 51½ (-110)

he 2nd under has spoken.  45 was the benchmark by Michael Brantley for the MLB last season.  If I had to guess a guy to smack 50+ doubles in 2016 – it would be Matt Carpenter (who led the NL with 44 — 2B, but hit a surprising 28 HRs). 

Another doubles machine I like would be Miguel Cabrera in the American League.  Still picking under.  52 is a lot of 2 baggers.

(David Ortiz of all people led the league in two base hits with 48.  I needed, and received a severe slow down from him in the second half of the year to stay under for a $27.25 profit, total losses of $614.50)

MOST COMPLETE GAMES By: Any Pitcher
Over 5 (-110)
Under 5 (-110)

No clubs like extending their Starters this late.  Who honestly even has a green light to go 9 without regard to pitch count?  Bumgarner, Kershaw, Sale and David Price  I am betting under.

(Chris Sale ruined my party with 6 Complete Games, running my losses to $644.50)

(We still finished 8 – 7 in Generic Prop Bets for the Year)

Individual Player Props

$40 Wagers

Jose Altuve (Houston: 2015 – 200 Hits)
Over 187½ (-110)
Under 187½ (-110)

Won this bet last year, and will pick it off again. Altuve has back to back 200 hit campaigns – with also notching 225 base knocks in 2015.

(Altuve, who was robbed of the AL MVP in my view, brought forth 216 hits, and won me $36.34,total losses at $608.16)

Robinson Cano (Seattle: 2015 – 179 Hits)
Over 175½ (-110)
Under 175½ (-110)

This is my best bet on the board.  Cano struggled in the 1st half of 2015 – but reeled in 92 hits over his last 70 Games.  This man has no less than 179 hits every year since 2008.  Bet this one.  Cano at worst will repeat his 2015 year, and he is at least always healthy.

(Cano piled up 195 hits and again made me a winner of $36.34, total losses of 571.82.)

Manny Machado* (Baltimore: 2015 – 181 Hits)
Over 167½ (-110)
Under 167½ (-110)

Bet the over.  How do they figure Machado is going to tail off 15 hits?  I think he will improve his totals.

(The Baltimore SS/3B improved yet again with 188 hits, and would have had more if not for a 3 game suspension for clocking Royals SP Yordano Ventura, profit of $36.34, total losses of $535.48)

Adam Jones* (Baltimore: 2015 – 147 Hits)
Over 169½ (-110)
Under 169½ (-110)

Bet the under.  Jones is on the wrong side of 30, and will likely see his Batting Average come down on a yearly basis going forward.

(Sweated this one a little, but had 6 hits to spare on the O’s CF, profit of $36.34, total losses of $499.14.)

Paul Goldschmidt* (Arizona: 2015 – 182 Hits)
Over 169½ (-110)
Under 169½ (-110)

Love the over on this.  May be my 2nd favorite wager on the board behind Cano.  ‘Goldy has hit for 182 base knocks in 2 of the last 3 years, and would have surely gone over in 2014 had his injury not sidelined him for the last 2 months.

(Goldschmidt helped me run the table on wins for these individual prop bets by mustering 172 hits.  This wins me another $36.34 to bring down losses to $462.80)

( A nice 5 – 0 record in individual player prop bets)


(Note from 2015 March)

To show everyone I put my money where my mouth is:  I have been saying all winter long that I believe the Rays are not as strong as most experts believe.  I have put down a Hondo on them to go under 82.5 wins at +100.  It pays back $200.

(My best bets on the board this year were the Rays and Reds, and I won these again.  I had stated n many articles before the year began that Tampa’s pitching was HR prone, and they had several bench player hit a high HR per AB.  This was one of the most gratifying wins on the board as several people contested my pick of the Rays being overrated.  Profit of $100, total losses down to $362.80)

1st 2 bets on the Board in Late 2015:

Arizona D’Backs to win the World Series 40/1 – $50 Wager – Pays $2050.

LA Dodgers to win the World Series 15/1 – $50 Wager – Pays $800.

(This was another hit to the pocketbook, although I was able to also hedge the Dodgers in the NLCS.  They had a 2 – 1 lead in games vs Chicago (Total Losses to 462.80)

This was already $2100 on the board for wagers before even the ALL – Star Break..  This dough represents all of the profit Chuck and I have raked in since the beginning of 2013.  I will be placing some more dough throughout the year. But that is it for now.

(Post June Bets)

(I won a cool and quick $206.25 on wagering on Giancarlo Stanton to win the 2016 HR derby at the ALL – Star Game, Total Losses to $256.55)

Before the series started, and with a potential $750 payday for the Dodgers. I bet the Cubs to win the series for $300 at -300 for a $100 profit, total losses $156.55)

In August of 2016, I was able to bet the Red Sox to win the Division for a $34 profit.  This worked as a hedge bet against the Orioles.  Baltimore still held a lead, and Boston and Toronto were +240 and +300 respectively to win the Division. total losses of $122.55)

In the AL Wildcard Game I threw down $100 on the Jays to win $70, as I stood to make a lot of money if the Orioles could have come out of the American League. My plan was to hedge them in each series, Total losses down to $52.25)

With the Giants up 5 – 2 on the Cubs in Game #4 of the NLDS round, and heading into the 8th inning, I wagered $15 at +600 for a comeback with Chicago.  I was trying to protect my Nats and Dodgers picks from having to play the eventual champs.  Giants Bullpen explode, lost the contest 6 – 5 yet still made a tidy $90, Total profit is now up to $37.75).

(In Game #5 of the World Series, and with Jon Lester losing 1 – 0, and the Cubs coming up in the Bottom of the 3rd for a second time versus Josh Tomlin, i risked $10 at a +100 odd, because coming up were Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist.  Bryant homered, the Cubs then scored a couple more runs and took the game outright.  $10 Profit, total revenue up to $47.75)

(When Rajai Davis hit the game tying HR in Game #7 of the World Series, and made it 6 – 6. I was astounded to see the in bet play action had the Cubs at +118 at this point.  Cleveland had already used Andrew Miller and Cody Allen, and were just holding on to Bryan Shaw.

The meat of the lineup had already been passed through the bottom of the eighth.  Chicago was set to have Bryant, Rizzo and Zobrist due up again.  I jumped at this chance to wager $50.  The Cubs still had Aroldis Chapman throwing too.  The rain delay ensued, and the Cubs then tallied 2 runs in the 11th to take an 8 – 6 lead.

I wanted to cover my ass in case of a Indians comeback – but the gambling site would not allow for a money line wager, and instead gave me a +200 odd if the Indians would score a run in the Bottom of the 11th .  I wagered $25 to ensure if they came back and won – I would at leat break even on the bets I made that night

I won both wagers as the Indians did plate a run to make 8 – 7, before still surrendering the win.  I touched a nice little profit of $118 for the bets. Total earnings up to $165.75)

(Before the AL Playoffs started, I also plunked down an additional $100 on each of the Jays (wildcard game only), Red Sox, Rangers and the Indians to win the American League Pennant as a hedge for the Orioles.

I stood to make around $1400 on Baltimore if they could have represented the Junior Circuit in the Fall Classic.  As it stood, I collected $100 profit on the Tribe being the eventual winner as they were a +500 AL favorite, which ranked them the 3rd lowest on the pole heading into the playoffs behind the Sox and the Rangers, raising the total profit.

Had the Red Sox or Rangers won, I would have broke even as I placed $150 bets at them at +160 as co-favorites.  I was lucky Cleveland won – and it raised my season total profit to $265.75)

I did lose $75 in other wagering in the playoffs, and also another $50 wager on the Diamondbacks in Nov of 2015 – but I still made a nice $140.75 profit for the 2016 year, running the three year profit mark to nearly $2250.

Having nothing to do with the ALL - Star Game, and a ton to prove after inviting himselfto the HR derby in San Diego, we placed a $125 bet on Stanton to win the event at +325 odds. He destroyed the field, This was the difference in us turning a small little profit for the year. ).

Having nothing to do with the ALL – Star Game, and a ton to prove after inviting himselfto the HR derby in San Diego, we placed a $125 bet on Stanton to win the event at +325 odds. He destroyed the field, This was the difference in us turning a small little profit for the year. ).

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their other partners.***

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A big thanks goes out to our ‘Chief Writer/Part Owner’ Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s featured post.

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