I have no problem with the Jays being the favorite out of the remaining clubs left in the postseason – however they should not be favored over every other teams by twice the odds.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21

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The Toronto Blue Jays came back from 0 – 2 in the ALDS to beat Texas in the best of 5 series. Kansas City won their winner take all game with the Astros – so now we get to revisit my blog from last week coming to fruition.

I am talking about some precarious moves after the Canadian franchise clinched – costing them a chance for home field advantage.  This may be the difference in this forthcoming American League Championship Series.

The Royals have four games at home to the Jays three in this series and a much better Bullpen. Even with the offense not in the same league as Toronto, they should only be slight underdogs.

Odds to win the ALCS:

Toronto -155  Kansas City +135.

Are these teams really that far apart, and add in the extra home game for the Royals – and this series should be closer to a pick’em that having the Jays as a solid favorite.

No question the Jays have an awesome offense, however the KC squad doesn’t throw out a LHP as a starter in this upcoming series.  A serious turning point in the Toronto and Texas series was them throwing Derek Holland and Martin Perez in back to back games.

If I were making the odd for this best of 7 I would have listed it Tor -115, KC -105.  Bet Kansas City.

Odds to win Game #5 Mets (+130)  @ Dodgers (-150)

Forget about home field in this game.  Look at the line.. With Zack Greinke hurling the ball in this contest, he is probably going to give up less than 3 runs – and chuck 6 or 7 innings.   But lets not overlook Jacob DeGrom in this matchup either.  He was dominant in Game 1 of the series, fanning 13 guys and allowing 5 Hits and 1 Walk.

This game will probably come down to the Bullpens.  If I were Terry Collins, I may even bring out Noah Syndergaard to flame-throw in a Relief role during this game.  Greinke must hold down the fort until the 8th inning or so because other than Kenley Jansen, the rest of the setup and middlemen are suspect.

My dollars will go down on the Mets.  I will put $50 on both a Mets win in Game 5, and KC to win the ALCS.  If I win either of these bets, a nice $15 profit will be returned to me.

This brings me to the next point of wagering on the World Series.  As a counter measure to the bet I make on the NLCS – will include a $15 bounty on the Dodgers at +560 today.   That bet would net a $99 payday.  So even if I guy 0/2 in the first two selections, I would only lose a solitary dollar if the Dodgers go on to win the NLCS and then the World Series.

There is no doubt the Los Angeles club should still be favored in the NLCS against the Cubs with that pitching.  At -150 today, if you prorate that to suggest what the odd would be as a member of baseball’s final four this year, then you are looking at about a +336 to win it all.  This would put them as slight underdogs to the Cubs and Royals.

World Series Odds

Toronto +190 (Yikes, way too much), Chicago Cubs +320, KC Royals +330, Dodgers +560, Mets +600.

The best maneuver here is that Dodgers bet.  Again I believe the Jays should be slight favorites against the field, just not almost double against any of the remaining squads.

NLCS

Cubs -105, Dodgers +240, Mets +280.

The bet here is to throw down $50 on both the Mets and the Dodgers.  They look to both be underdogs against the Cubs – and I am not buying that with the Los Angeles pitching.  New York should be underdog to the Cubs, however it should only be a Chicago -120 to the Mets +100 kind of deal.

-Odds are courtesy of bet365.com

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***

A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.

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