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Tuesday April 2, 2013

Chase Headley actually fared well at Petco Park in 2012 – with a 3 Slash Line of – .272/.357/.812. He added 13 HRs and 51 RBI. He could potentially hit a few more out with the fences drawn in.

Bernie Olshansky (Baseball Writer): Follow @BernieOlshansky

2013 was going to be a rough year for the San Diego Padres even before they got the news that their highest powered offensive weapon would miss a significant amount of time. Chase Headley was the only spark in the weak Padres lineup in 2012, hitting 31 HR and driving in 115 runs. A performance like this could not get the Padres out of second-to-last place in the NL West, so I am afraid to see how the Padres will fare after they start 2013 without their third baseman.

This year, the West is stronger as Zack Greinke has been added to the Dodgers most notably, the Diamondbacks have improved their team, and the Giants are the defending World Champions, having extended the reigning NL MVP. The Rockies also have power-hitting shortstop Troy Tulowitzki back in the lineup after missing most of last season due to injury.

If the Padres were going to contend this season, they would need to get off to a hot enough start to keep up with the rest of the teams. Without Chase Headley, I do not see how that is possible. Even with Headley it would be a very tough task. The Padres have not made any notable additions, so it looks like it will be more of the same in San Diego.

Headley Highlights _ Mature Lyrics so Parental Guidance is Advised

Chase Headley led the NL in RBI last season with 115. Headley does this again look for the Padres to compete for a playoff spot this season.

Without Headley, the Padres will need to find offensive power in other parts of their lineup. Guys like Yonder Alonso and Carlos Quentin will need to step up. Both have showed power in the past, so it would not be surprising if one or both of these hitters helped the offensive cause. Quentin has 20-30 HR potential, even in Petco Park.

Quentin hit 36 HR and drove in 100 in his best season in 2008. Realistically, I could see him hitting anywhere from 20-24 HR and driving in somewhere around 80 runs.

The RBI will be tough to get for Quentin, as the one and two hitters, Everth Cabrera and Jedd Gyorko, are a bit unproven. Cabrera is a known base-stealer, so if he can get on base and get in scoring position enough, achieving more than 80 RBI is possible for Quentin.

When Headley comes back, Quentin will see a lot more RBI chances. Overall though, it will be tough to single-handedly carry a team offensively for the month that Chase Headley is out.

This is where Yonder Alonso comes into play. Without Headley in the lineup, Alonso is projected as the three-hitter. Alonso has yet to have his breakout season, only hitting nine HR last year—his most out of any season.

This season will be only his second full season, so we should see better offensive production out of him. Hitting in the three-hole should set him up for a good year, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a spike in his power numbers. What I would not expect, though, is Alonso to carry the team in a way that Carlos Quentin or Chase Headley could.

Alonso is 25 and still developing, so it is very likely that we see him pop in and out of slumps throughout the year. I think 20 HR is a realistic estimate for Alonso, but if he hit anything less than that, it would not be a shock.

As far as pitching, the Padres are weak. Edinson Volquez looks to be the Opening Day starter, with Clayton Richard and Eric Stults following behind. Tyson Ross was acquired from the Oakland A’s this offseason, so he provides some depth in the rotation. I’ll say the Padres have the fourth-best rotation in the NL West, only in front of the Rockies.

Last year, the Rockies rotation was atrocious—starters were only allotted a certain amount of pitches before they were pulled—similar to what we are seeing in spring training with pitchers being taken out of the game after throwing 50, 60, 70 pitches.

For the Padres, Chase Headley cannot return soon enough. They simply cannot afford to fall behind the rest of the teams in the NL West. Even with Headley, though, it could still be a long year for the San Diego Padres.

Headley captured a Gold Glove Award and Silver Slugger in 2012. He ended up finishing 5th in NL MVP voting. He hit 23 HRs and 73 RBI in just 75 Games after the 2012 ALL-Star Game.

***The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com or their partners***

Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer Bernie Olshansky. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Bernie on Twitter. Follow @BernieOlshansky

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