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Thursday July 19th, 2012

Bryan Sheehan (MLB Writer): The Diamondbacks could be in a worse situation. Just four games under .500 and sitting third within the NL West, they’re in the middle of the road statistically for both hitting and pitching despite injuries on both sides of the ball. Both Justin Upton and Miguel Montero have gone through slumps but are still batting around .270 with potential to contribute offensively, and second baseman Aaron Hill is having a great season so far, hitting .301 with the projection of 73 RBIs if he continues on this pace. Outfielder Jason Kubel is having a great year at the plate and defensively, as he leads the MLB in outfield assists. Rookie pitcher Wade Miley has been a wonderful surprise this year, leading all rookie starters with a 3.13 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10 wins. Keep in mind this is the team that won the NL West last year and didn’t radically change over the offseason.

That being said, they’re far from in the driver’s seat. 7 games out of the wild card, as well as 7 games from the NL West lead, they have some issues to attend to. While top prospect and 2011 draft pick Trevor Bauer has the potential to be an MLB starter, at 21 he’s a bit underdeveloped. In four starts, Bauer had a 6.06 ERA with a 1-2 record, rough enough to buy him a bus ticket back to Triple-A Reno. With ace Daniel Hudson out for the season because of Tommy John surgery, the D-Backs currently only have four starting pitchers. With the deadline fast approaching, Arizona has a tough choice: trade away prospects and make a run for the playoffs, or sell off their big names in return for a chance in 2013 (and beyond).

I think the D-Backs will be sellers, but not in the traditional sense. The team lacks an everyday third baseman and starting pitching, but plugging in a few upgrades would make a huge difference. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, both Justin Upton and Stephen Drew will be traded within the next month. While these players are both solid, young assets, swapping them would not mean Arizona is giving up on 2012. They would act like sellers, with the mentality of a buyer.

Upton, 24, is one of the biggest names of this year’s Trade Deadline, and has drawn interest from many teams. He is hitting .274 with 38 RBIs in 2012, but a July slump (.255 in 13 games) has hurt his overall season totals. Even with his contract that runs through 2015, the consensus in Arizona is that Upton’s trade is more “when” than “if”. His backup, Gerardo Parra, would not be a huge drop in quality, especially considering his .292 average and Gold Glove win in 2011. The 25-year-old has appeared in 77 games so far in 2012, and his line is not too far from Upton’s. As shown in the table below, their batting average is separated by just four points, and Parra has almost as many extra base hits (he has one less double and one less home run) as Upton in about seventy less at bats. His eleven stolen bases mirror Justin’s, and he has been caught four less times. 

Upton could draw, possibly, a big name like Zack Greinke or San Diego’s Chase Headley. Both are on the block for their respective teams, and both the Padres and Brewers could use an outfield upgrade. The Padres have already shown interest in Upton to take Will Veanable’s spot, and Milwaukee’s Nyjer Morgan is struggling with just a .228 average. If a Greinke-Upton deal could be reached, it would be an incredible blockbuster. 

As for Stephen Drew, his value is more prospect-based than anything. If the DBacks have to give up a prospect or two to push through the Greinke deal, they can get something back by trading their shortstop. Just as well, Drew has been struggling mightily this year, and his .213 average is the lowest of his career. Behind him on the bench is Willie Bloomquist, who would be an improvement offensively (but really, anything would be an upgrade at this point). 

The Diamondbacks are in an interesting position. They aren’t completely out of the race for the NL West, and they have the pieces to make a deep run if they can upgrade in pitching or at third base. At the same time, they have stars that they can move for either prospects, their farm system is ninth best according to John Sickels, or other stars. Like a wolf in sheep’s clothing, they are a buyer in seller’s clothing: they may look down, but the right move will propel them towards October.

Today’s feature was prepared by  Baseball Writer, Bryan Sheehan. You can follow Bryan on Twitter (@BaseballHipster), read his interviews with Phillies’ minor league prospects at PhightingOn.com and PhuturePhillies.com, and catch him writing the occasional article for ThroughTheFenceBaseball.com. Tweet him about this article and give him a follow and he will follow you back!

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