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Thursday July 19th, 2012

Bernie Olshansky: Carl Crawford undoubtedly has the potential to bring some extra oomph to the already powerful Red Sox lineup with his long-awaited return from the disabled list. Hopefully this Carl Crawford will be the guy the Red Sox hoped he would be when he signed with them. In his last year with Tampa Bay, he hit .307 with 19 homers and 90 RBIs, along with 47 stolen bases. Crawford is a .293 hitter over his career that started in 2002. This is what the Red Sox were hoping to get when they signed him in December of 2010 for a 7-year $142 million contract. So far, this contract has been a disaster. Last year, in his first year of the contract, Crawford hit a paltry .255—38 points less than his career average. Also, Crawford only played 130 games—which was rare for him, as he’s only played less than 140 games one other time (not including his rookie season).

So, what would happen if Crawford was back to his old self? With the return of Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox could easily shoot up to become one of the best offenses in the league. Pedroia is slated to return today, so a lineup including Ellsbury, Crawford, Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, and David Ortiz is most likely going to happen once Ortiz returns from the DL. Ortiz was placed on the DL with an Achilles injury after scoring on a home run. Once Ortiz is healthy, the Red Sox should be all set up for a big comeback down the stretch.

To make the Red Sox a better team, all Carl Crawford needs to do to start is hit better than .265 (the average of Daniel Nava—his replacement). Yes, a lot of other factors come into play, like power numbers and defense, but I don’t think it would be too difficult for a guy like Crawford to accomplish. I really don’t think he all of a sudden lost it last year. I think he just had an off-year and was feeling a lot of pressure from his contract—similar to what happened to Barry Zito after signing a monster contract with the Giants or even Tim Lincecum this year after signing his two-year deal. Now, Red Sox fans will be happy with anything better than his numbers last year.

At some point though, Crawford will need to get his ailments dealt with. He will likely need Tommy John surgery after having elbow ailments following wrist surgery. The wrist surgery came after an injury in January of this year (which put him on the DL). Another of Crawford’s pesky ailments is his hamstring. Last year in July, Crawford was placed on the DL for just the second time in his career with a hamstring injury. This injury could just be chalked up to being unlucky. Up until this recent injury streak, Crawford has been pretty hardy throughout his long career.

But, with the type of player that Crawford is, how worried should Red Sox fans be about his hamstring? In my opinion, very. Crawford is already 30 years old, and is signed for six more years, including this one. With age, Crawford’s hamstring will no doubt flare up more and more. This will arguably take away the most important part of his game. With 110 triples, Crawford leads all active major leaguers. With a bum hamstring, Crawford will slow down and stop legging out the triples, stop stealing as many bases, and hit for a lower average due to not beating out those close infield singles. His value will go down exponentially, and the Red Sox will look even worse for signing him to such a large contract.

The Red Sox made an even bigger mistake by signing Crawford than the Angels did with signing Albert Pujols. At least when Pujols is upwards of 37 (with a few years still left on his contract), he will still have some power and will be able to drive in runs. When Pujols signed his mega-contract this winter, no consideration was taken as to his running ability. If Ichiro were to be up for free agency, it would be a different story. Ichiro has lost a little bit of speed and hasn’t been able to leg out his classic infield hits as much as he did in the past. The Red Sox gave Crawford a contract that a team would give a power hitter. The Red Sox basically paid for Crawford’s speed, so what happens when it isn’t there anymore?

Luckily, the Red Sox have the money to eat part of a contract like this (if it comes to that). The Red Sox won’t be forced to play Crawford if he’s struggling due to the pressure of his contract, and they would be able to do something about it. In the past few days, there have been talks of Crawford and a prospect going to the Marlins for Heath Bell and Hanley Ramirez. While this would be a blockbuster, I don’t see it making much sense for the Red Sox. They just traded away Kevin Youkilis to make room for rookie third baseman Will Middlebrooks, and Hanley just switched to third. So, the Red Sox would most likely need to re-convert him to a shortstop, displacing Mike Aviles. Sure, Hanley could DH occasionally, but that wouldn’t be a permanent spot for him with David Ortiz filling that role. Although Crawford’s career with the Red Sox got off to a rocky start, fans can hope that his streak of bad luck is over and that he’ll be the player that he’s been throughout his career.

***Today’s feature was prepared by Bernie Olshansky, MLB reports Intern & Facebook Administrator.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Bernie on Twitter (@BernieOlshansky)***

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