MLB reports:  In part 2 of my series on sleeper targets, I move to the National League.  On each team, I pinpoint the player that will likely drop in your draft or sit on the waiver wire come opening day.  These are the value players that will in my estimation make or break your fantasy year.  Let’s get to it:

Cubs – Carlos Pena:  Yes.  A $10 million player can be undervalued.  Especially one that hit below .200 in 2010.  At 100 walks and 30+ home runs, Pena would definitely have a place on my fantasy team.  Check his 2009 season.  .227 average and a .356 OBP.  87 walks and 39 home runs that year.  Pena can likely be had around the 7^th round and as late as the 12^th round depending on your league.  You will never get better production at such a reduced rate.  Buy low on Pena.

Nationals – Drew Storen:  As I write this article, I see a tweet that Storen/Burnett will share closer duties to start the year.  Closers by committee tend to scare off many fantasy teams but it shouldn’t scare you.   When you know your guy will have the job for most of the year and nail it down, especially in a keeper league, nab him.  Storen was highly touted in college, groomed as a closer and will be the Nationals closer for the next 10 years.  If you draft right, he can do the same for you.  Storen’s spring woes mean value to you.  Don’t think fringe closer, bet on your #1 stopper on a young team on the rise.

Brewers – Takashi Saito:  I am a big John Axford fan, but the closer position is volatile to say the least.  Injuries and performance creates huge fluctuations.  Statistics show that at least 40% of the closers to start the year won’t have their jobs in September.  Saito has the experience and track record and will get the ball first when called upon.  Saito may be closer insurance on your bench to start the year, but for a guy likely to go undrafted in most leagues, certainly worth the gamble.

Marlins – Logan Morrison:  See Storen.  LoMo was very highly touted to start the spring but a poor March has likely put a damper on many teams’ expectations.  It shouldn’t change your projections.  Spring numbers don’t mean much on a grand scale and young players with big expectations often try too hard and hinder themselves early on.  Once the season starts, the good ones know how to refocus and get back to the basics.  Morrison is the next Will Clark/ Mark Grace.  Sweet swing and patience personified.  Rank him high and draft low.  If he falls to the 8^th round or after, nab him and enjoy him for the next 12 years.

Diamondbacks – Miguel Montero:  Another highly touted prospect seemingly forever that has been sidelined year after year by injuries.  I see Montero ready to take the next step.  A catcher with good power doesn’t grow on trees.  Keep an eye on Montero and if your other catcher targets are gone by the 10^th-12^th rounds, consider him.  The potential is still there and he can still be affordable.

Rockies – Chris Iannetta: I see Chris as similar to Montero but with more potential and a lower price tag.  Despite repeated chances, Iannetta has yet to break through to the next level.  With a good eye at the plate, pop and the think air of Denver, I see 25+ home runs and 75 walks in his future.  He is worth the small gamble as his ceiling remains high at 28.  Colorado is giving him another chance, so should you.

Mets – Francisco Rodriguez:  Between the Mets issues, lack of talent and K-Rod’s own legal troubles, few teams will likely be targeting him on draft day.  Rodriguez went from closer keeper to outcast seemingly overnight.  25 saves and a 2.20 ERA in 2010 sound positive to me.  Remember, bad teams often play in closer games.  K-Rod could get you easily 30 saves at his lowest cost ever.  Think about it.

Phillies – Raul Ibanez:  I rarely recommend targeting 39 outfielders.  My general rule is to stay away from the 35+ crowd, injuries and performance issues tend to occur quicker with the older player generation.  But Ibanez had 34 home runs in 2009 with 93 runs and rbis that year.  His batting average and obp were relatively consistent to his historical norms, only the power seemed to be going down.  Ibanez got going later in the season and hopefully an offseason in his revitalization chamber helped (no joke, he does own one).  In that ballpark and with the loss of Utley and Werth, Ibanez could see time in the 3^rd and 5^th slots.  At the very least he will be a decent 5^th outfielder and perform as a 3^rd on many nights.

Pirates – Ryan Doumit:  For a team with as little talent as the Pirates right now, Doumit continues to stand out for me.  I featured him in a profile piece this week, check out the archives to read my full evaluation of Ryan.  Bottom line is that he is a switch hitting catcher that can help you in almost every category.  With outfield and first base eligibility as well, Doumit will offer versatility to your fantasy team in the case of injuries.  The most likely scenario is that he will be traded to a contender between opening day and the all-star game.  I still smell a breakout year and with much to prove, Doumit could see 2011 as his year.

Cardinals – Colby Rasmus:  A highly touted prospect, difference of opinions between La Russa and Rasmus has burnt out some of Colby’s bright light.  But with Pujols looming in the line-up, I believe this kid is only beginning to scratch the surface of his potential.  Seemingly around forever, Rasmus is only 24 years old.  30+ home runs with 100+ rbis are on the way…buy early to avoid the 1^st round price tag in a year or two.  5^th-7^th round bargain in my book.

Braves – Mike Minor:  After breezing through the minors last year, the 23 year old made it to the Braves in his 2^nd professional season.  Having lost his 5^th starter job in spring training, Minor might be off to the bullpen or minors to start the year.  I see Tommy Hanson potential in this kid and so do the braves.  Minor could go anywhere from the 15^th round to undrafted in many leagues.  With good starting pitching at such a high premium these days in baseball, there should be room on your bench reserved for Minor. 

Reds – Yonder Alonso:  Alonso and Logan Morrison almost go hand-in-hand for me.  One of the Reds top prospects and A-Rod friends/protégés, Alonso is a man with a stellar bat and no position to play.  Blocked at 1B by Votto, the Reds have not expressed the confidence to-date to name Alonso as a future outfielder.  Seemingly a change of scenery is in order, but this kid has endless potential in his future.  Buy low and thank me later as you watch walk after walk and the doubles/home runs fly off his bat.  I see Alonso as one of the special, rare superstars to-be in baseball.  Watch him play, I think you will agree.

Astros – Brett Wallace:  Another highly touted prospect for what seems forever, Wallace is now on his 4^th organization in his short professional career.  Traded for the likes of Matt Holliday, Michael Taylor and Anthony Gose, several organizations have shown a lot of faith in the capabilities of this third baseman turned first baseman.  The bat is real, as Wallace was considered to have the strongest bat in his draft year class.  With the downturn of the Astros, many people seem to forget the potency of their park.  Wallace is the next face of the Astros and hopefully your fantasy team.

Dodgers – Andre Ethier:  I debated long and hard between Ethier and Broxton in this spot.  I definitely see Broxton rebounding this year to reclaim his spot as a top-5 baseball closer. He is that good and an off-season of rest and exercise should do the trick.  With Ethier, despite having 1^st round potential, I tend to see him very undervalued in fantasy drafts as a whole.  The former Athletic displays the power and patience that I most value in a hitter.  A possible future MVP candidate one day, the likely 5^th round pick is almost certain to give you a minimum level of production, with a higher ceiling to come.  Jump in early, I value Ethier much higher than Kemp if that gives you a better idea on his ranking to me.

Padres – Matt Latos:  This one you for sure did not see coming.  With Latos mania running wild, you must think that I am exaggerating.  I am not.  As a whole I am not crazy about the Padres as a team, similarly to the Mets.  But Latos is a special pitcher, one of the only ones I would consider drafting in the 3^rd round.  His low ERA and WHIP combined with wins potential sold me.  Don’t reach at any cost, but even drafting early will give you the numbers that your pitching staff requires in fairly consistent fashion.

Giants – Buster Posey:  As World Series champs in 2010, players on the Giants will likely come with a higher price tag this year based on the team’s miracle run.  Don’t overpay…unless you are buying this generation’s Johnny Bench.  Posey can do it all at the plate and still has room to grow. A top 5 rounds pick?  Definitely.  Be prepared to go as high as the 2^nd or 3^rd round but believe me, you could do worse than getting the strongest player at the weakest position to fill in baseball.

I hope you have enjoyed my look into fantasy baseball sleepers.  Good luck managing your fantasy team and hopefully I have been able to make some of your roster decisions much clearer.

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