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Thursday June.13/2013

The Dodgers don’t lead the Majors in many categories this year (except for Bench clearing brawls). The 1st incident with the Padres cost them Greinke with a broken clavicle. He will likely be suspended for more games. Who else will be suspended?? We should find out from baseball today. Meanwhile the team is 28 – 37 – and 11 Games behind Arizona.

It is time to call it like it is – and back it up with some cold hard facts.  As a former professional oddsmaker, I understand why the ESPN page lists the Blue Jays at a 2.8% chance to make the playoffs – and the Dodgers just slightly better at 2.9%. 

The math involved is not even as complicated as Sabermetrics.  I will show you how they have derived this notion.  The fanbases will always tell you that they are one big winning streak away from jumping back into the mix. 

They would be right some of the time (Note the 2007 and 2009 Rockies, the 2012 Athletics, the 2011 Cardinals and Rays also made up around 10 Games deficits for playoff spots even in September).

I can also think of the 2005 Astros flying off the wall in the second half to earn a playoff spot.

Here is why these two teams are deep trouble.

The Jays haven’t had much go right for them this season. They might have seasons of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautitsta that see them both bash out 40 HRs each. The Starting Pitching has been atrocious – and they will need to address this situation again in the offseason. The management should not be fooled to think this season will turn around – even if they can climb back to near.500 by the ALL – Star Break. There are 4 better teams than them in the AL East.

The Jays:

They are currently chasing 4 teams in the AL East.  They are 11.5 Games Behind the Boston Red Sox and 8.5 Games the 2nd place Wild Card (The Yankees).  Furthermore, they are 9.5 Games behind the Rangers, and 10.5 Games behind Oakland Athletics.

With the Oakland Athletics and Texas Rangers both being able to have a heavy dosage of the Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros (and even the hapless Angels so far), they both have a cupcake schedule.  I can honestly see these teams winning 95 games each – which is what they are on pace for.

I don’t see any of the AL Central teams challenging for the Wild Card.  The teams in that Division will hope that the Detroit Tigers Bullpen problems escalate to keep them within distance to challenge them.  Other than Detroit, I don’t see any clubs winning more than 85 games.

Back to the Toronto situation.  So they must leapfrog two teams in their own Division out of (NYY, BAL, TB, BOS).  The problem is that even if Toronto plays well, chances are that they will only be able to pass 2 clubs, and they would need to pass two in order to qualify.

Each time these other 4 teams play within the division, a win will occur.  Meaning the Jays could win a game, however 2 of these clubs would also win in a night if the Yankees played the Red Sox and the Orioles played the Rays.

Games Left in the Division for each club.

BOS – 49

NYY – 49

TB – 42

BAL – 48

TOR – 44

If you take the Jays 44 games out of the fold, there are 154 Games left (or 77 Games in head to head playing) .  That is 77 guaranteed wins handed out no matter what.  There is a great chance that the two top winning clubs will likely win 20 games each of these said matches or more. 

Point Blank:  That 11.5 Games Behind the Division Leader – might as well be 20 Games, and the Wild Card spot might as well be  16 – 17. The Toronto team would need to win 30 games at least – out of their 44 remaining Inter-Divisional games.

The 2nd Wild Card Spot will most likely win 90 – 93 games. (Yankees are on pace to win 92, Baltimore 91 and Tampa Bay 87.)  This would mean that the Jays would have to win 62 – 65 games out of their last 98 contests to have a shot.  This would be a .632 – .663 Win Percentage. from a club that is playing at a .438 clip right now. 

The only chance they have is if the Rangers and Athletics just crash and burn when playing outside their own division.  This is the same reason why the Angels will have a near impossible task as well.

The Angels do have a small chance,  however  I could see them going on a Athletics like run of 2012.  Los Angeles are going to need the same kind of Win Percentage as aforementioned before with the Jays.

To go on a huge winning streak like this, you need several on fire players – and a great string of Game Starts by the starters in your rotation.  I just don’t see this from R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow and a cast of others.  Injuries have also plagued the staff and some of their guys are still on the sick bay.

The Dodgers to have a nice trio of starters in Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Zack Greinke, plus if they could ever have a few of their ALL – Stars bash the ball around for a long stretch, they could make it close.  Again, this is a numbers game.

With 3 teams in the NL Central on pace to win 95 Games, and play the lesser teams of the Brewers and Cubs within their Division, I could see 3 teams possibly coming out of the Central.

Washington and Philadelphia have struggled in the NL East, and will be lucky to just challenge the Braves for the Division Pennant. 

The Dodgers have 46 games left versus the NL West and have sported a 9 – 21 mark through play yesterday.  Arizona – 42, SF – 45, COL – 40 and SD – 45.  Again, apply the formula after the games the Dodgers play, and it is 126 games played head to head combat.  That is 63 wins handed out among the 4 other teams with the Dodgers not having a say.

The good news is that the Dodgers could ramp up their play within the Division.  These clubs are not as good as the AL East teams,  The Dodgers could very well play at a .600 clip within the NL West. 

The National League West Division champs may win at or neat 90 Games.  More bad news is that Dodger Blue has played 39 Home Games already – compared to only 26 Road Games.  The team is 19 – 20 at Dodger Stadium – and 9 – 17 away. 

In my own opinion the Dodgers should have double the chances as the Jays do, but again are not likely to makeup this deficit.  I guess the oddsmakers felt that the NL West Division would be the Dodgers only way to the Fall Classic.

This goes to show you that you can’t win a Division in April, May and June, however you can lose one. 

These two teams could always prove me wrong, but I am not holding my breath and will stick with the house odds. 

With Trout, Trumbo and Pujols in the lineup for the next decade, plus Hamilton for the next 5 years,one would have thought the team would contend for a World Series in the near future. It probably won’t happen in 2013. They should thank their lucky stars that they play in the AL West. However they have struggled versus the Houston Astros this campaign. They do have enough ALL – Star talent to streak though. ESPN has them listed as a 5% chance to make the playoffs as of today.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com or their partners.***

Chuck Booth – Lead Baseball Analyst/Website Owner and author of the Fastest 30 Ballgames:   To learn more about my  “The Fastest 30 Ballgames Book” and how to purchase it, click here .

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