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MLB Draft Signing Deadline: Who Will Sign By August 15th
Friday August 12, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): With the August 15 deadline for all 2011 MLB draftees to sign, players and teams are getting down to the wire with negotiations. Only two of the top ten picks have been signed, right-handed pitcher Trevor Bauer, and second baseman Cory Spangenberg by the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, respectively. Of the 33 first round picks, 9 have signed, as well as 14 of the 27 picks in the supplemental first round. It is expected that most of the picks from the first round will go down to the last hour, if not minute. However, there is a lot of speculation about who will not sign, and the fans of each team are hoping and praying their team will get their guy. Some players come into the draft with lofty expectations and high estimates of signing bonus money. As a result, many of the lower budget franchises stay away from these players, and draft “safe” players, who will sign for a more reasonable price.
The Oakland Athletics’ GM Billy Beane was made famous through the book “Moneyball”, which portrayed the club as a bottom feeder organization financially. They had to pick lesser talents in order to sign all their draft picks. They shied away from the big “sexy” names on draft boards and targeted players with specific skill sets. Other teams who have done this in the past to varying degrees of success are the Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals. In the last couple of years, these organizations have turned their philosophies around, drafting tough to sign players with higher ceilings, and ending up signing most of them. Today will highlight a few of the players drafted who will be tougher than others to sign.
From this year’s draft, one of the players who was known to be extremely
difficult to sign was Josh Bell. On talent alone, he was rated as an early first round pick, yet dropped to the second round to the Pittsburgh Pirates. He had sent a letter to Major League Baseball advising teams not to draft him on account that he wanted to attend the University of Texas. Some have said this was just a bargaining tool to simply add more leverage to his situation, while others think he will not sign under any circumstances. It has been predicted that it will take a minimum of $10M and a Major League contract in order to sign him. I feel that the Pirates are an extreme long shot to sign Bell, and he will attend U of T and be a Longhorn for the next three years.
High school right-handed pitcher Tyler Beede could have been a top 10 pick, with his 95 mph fastball and devastating change-up. Beede was widely known to be seeking a bonus upwards of $3-4M. The Toronto Blue Jays and their new management have made it a point to take the best player available when they it is their turn to select a player in the draft. So, when it came to their turn as the 21st selection, the Jays did not hesitate to choose Beede, who has said it will come down to money in the long run. I believe the Jays will sign him in the final minutes for close to $3M.
With the 5th overall pick, the Kansas City Royals had a tough decision to make. Outfielder Bubba Starling, a hometown kid from Kansas, was widely considered the top prep offensive talent in the draft was still on the board. Starling has a scholarship to the University of Nebraska to play both football and baseball. It is very likely that a bonus upwards of $8M will be what it takes for Starling to sign with KC on August 15. Expect this deal to get done.
Gerrit Cole, the flame throwing right-handed pitcher from UCLA was taken by the Pirates first overall in the draft. Cole has reached 102 mph on radar guns and routinely hits triple digits. Cole has yet to sign, but is widely expected to join the Pirates. A Major League deal for 4 years and $8M or so is likely.
Rice University has been known to producing top talent, as witnessed by having eight first round picks in the last 11 years, most notably when Phil Humber and Jeff Niemann went 3rd and 4th overall in the 2004 draft. Another first rounder from Rice was Lance Berkman in 1997. So when one of the top three candidates for the first overall pick came down to an infielder from Rice, who just happened to win the Dick Howser Trophy, (essentially the Heisman Award for college baseball players), nobody was surprised. Anthony Rendon may not have above average speed or the best glove, but he has an above average arm and was considered by most to be the best hitter in the country. Rendon dropped to #6 to the Washington Nationals due to signability concerns but should sign for $4M plus.
Shortstops with ultra talent often get huge signing bonuses and Cleveland Indians’ first pick (8th overall), Francisco Lindor will be no exception. Lindor has the talent to warrant a $3M bonus, but should hold out for more. The Indians tend to shy away from this kind of pick, but the talent speaks for itself and I believe the Indians will go as high as $3.5M to sign the talented shortstop.
There has arguably not been a better high school pitcher in the last decade than
flame throwing Dylan Bundy. The right-hander has reached 100 mph and has 2 plus secondary pitches. His high school pitching numbers are straight out of a video game. 71 innings, 2 earned runs. TWO! He also had 158 strikeouts to 5 walks. FIVE WALKS! Good for a 31.6:1 K:BB ratio. Oh, and the fact that he can also hit, as evidenced by his 11 home runs and 54 RBI in only 105 at-bats doesn’t hurt. The University of Texas commit could command a Major League contract and $6-8M. He should sign; my guess is $6.5M.
Here is the breakdown of the entire 2011 first round of picks, with players in bold having already signed:
1 Gerrit Cole RHP Pittsburgh Pirates
2 Danny Hultzen LHP Seattle Mariners
3 Trevor Bauer RHP Arizona Diamondbacks – ML deal 4/$7M
4 Dylan Bundy RHP Baltimore Orioles
5 Bubba Starling OF Kansas City Royals
6 Anthony Rendon 3B Washington Nationals
7 Archie Bradley RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
8 Francisco Lindor SS Cleveland Indians
9 Javier Baez SS Chicago Cubs
10 Cory Spangenberg 2B San Diego Padres – $1.86M
11 George Springer OF Houston Astros
12 Taylor Jungmann RHP Milwaukee Brewers
13 Brandon Nimmo OF New York Mets
14 Jose Fernandez RHP Florida Marlins
15 Jed Bradley LHP Milwaukee Brewers
16 Chris Reed LHP LA Dodgers
17 C.J. Cron Jr. 1B LA Angels – $1.467M
18 Sonny Gray RHP Oakland Athletics – $1.54M
19 Matt Barnes RHP Boston Red Sox
20 Tyler Anderson LHP Colorado Rockies
21 Tyler Beede RHP Toronto Blue Jays
22 Kolten Wong 2B St. Louis Cardinals – $1.3M
23 Alex Meyer RHP Washington Nationals
24 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays
25 Joe Ross RHP San Diego Padres
26 Blake Swihart C Boston Red Sox
27 Robert Stephenson RHP Cincinnati Reds
28 Sean Gilmartin LHP Atlanta Braves – $1.13M
29 Joe Panik SS San Francisco Giants – $1.116M
30 Levi Michael SS Minnesota Twins
31 Mikie Mahtook OF Tampa Bay Rays
32 Jake Hager SS Tampa Bay Rays – $963K
33 Kevin Matthews LHP Texas Rangers – $936K
I think that although you can’t be sure about these kinds of things, my gut feeling is that every first rounder this year will actually sign by August 15th. I also predict that at least one signing will come minutes after the deadline, probably a Scott Boras client, and the league will allow the deal to pass.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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August 15th Deadline to Sign MLB Draft Picks: 1 Week Away
Monday August 8, 2011
MLB reports: A popular topic on the Reports is the annual MLB Draft. Readers love to learn about baseball prospects and future stars. On June 6th, we summarized the first-round MLB selections and analyzed each player as selected by their respective club. With the excitement of the draft still in the air, the August 15th deadline to sign each drafted player is only 1 week away.
A quick recap of the draft rules for everyone. Players that were drafted by MLB teams this year must sign with their respective club by August 15th. If unsigned, the player will enter next year’s draft if eligible. In order to re-select the same player in a subsequent year, the team would need the permission of the previously drafted player.
Another twist to the draft is that if a team is not successful in signing a pick by August 15th, the team would receive a compensation pick in the following year’s draft. For a player drafted in the first or second round that goes unsigned, the team would receive the same slot pick the following year as compensation plus one. For a player not signed in the third round, a compensation pick would be given in a supplemental round between the third and fourth rounds. So for example, the National drafted Aaron Crow with the 9th overall pick, 1st round of the 2008 MLB draft. When Crow did not sign, the National received as compensation the 10th overall pick in the 2009 draft, used to draft current closer Drew Storen, in addition to their existing 1st round pick (1st overall, which was used to take phenom Stephen Strasburg). However, if a team is unable to sign the player taken with a compensatory pick, the team would not receive another compensation pick in following years. Thus a team gets one chance to make-up a pick, so they better be sure they draft a signable player.
The story of signing MLB draft picks does not usually boil down to who signed, but rather who did not sign. Draftees usually wait to the final hour to sign their contracts, minutes to the midnight deadline. Sizeable contracts are handed out at the deadline, as players and agents attempt to one-up one another. With the current MLB collective bargaining agreement set to expire on December 11, 2011, players and agents realize that future rookie contracts may be limited in a hard-cap, set-salary structure arrangement. Thus many players would be well advised to sign their first professional contracts this year, rather than face the risk of the unknown future salary structure of rookies.
The biggest contract given to a 1st round pick this year so far has been Trevor Bauer, who signed a 4-year, $7 million contract with the Diamondbacks. Other 2011 1st round picks to sign contracts already include Cory Spangenberg with the Padres, C.J. Cron with the Angels, Sonny Gray with the Athletics, Kolten Wong with the Cardinals, Sean Gilmarten with the Braves, Joe Panik with the Giants, Jake Hager with the Rays and Kevin Matthews with the Rangers. To keep up-to-date on the 2011 1st round and supplemental MLB Draft picks signings, please click onto MLB Trade Rumors, a great baseball site that is maintaining a draft pick signing page.
As August 15th continues to approach, fans will continue to ask if and when the Pirates will sign Gerrit Cole, the 1st overall selection in this year’s draft. Dylan Bundy of the Orioles, Bubba Starling of the Royals, Anthony Rendon of the Nationals and so forth also remain out there. For all the anxious people worrying as to which players will sign, let us help alleviate your concerns. The majority of the top picks will sign with their squads before the deadline and will get good contracts. We will continue to cover the signing deadline and file a report when the final numbers are in. The signing period is like a game of musical chairs with a great deal of money being thrown around with pre-arranged partners. It will be interesting to see which draft picks are left standing without a contract in hand when the bell strikes midnight next week.
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The 2011 MLB Draft: The Report and Inside Scoops
Saturday May 28, 2011
MLB reports: For all the baseball fans, observers and analysts, one of the happiest events in the year is almost upon us. The 2011 Major League Baseball Draft. All the standout players that we have all been tracking on-line and reading about in publications like Baseball America are about to be drafted by major league teams and hopefully signing their first professional contracts in hopes of one day making the big leagues. The draft is scheduled to run between June 6th – June 8th and will be broadcast live on mlb.com.
The talk around baseball is that changes could be in store for the MLB draft, as early as the 2012 draft year. With the expected potential of increased restrictions on entry player salaries, the word is that players will be more likely to sign this year under the current system. It will be interesting to see what percentage of drafted players sign with their teams and how many decide to re-enter the draft. With the MLB draft system in transition, the 2011 draft should turn out to be one of the most interesting baseball events in some time.
Once upon a time the MLB draft was conducted secretly over the telephone with little to no media coverage. But in our golden age of internet and instant media, the draft has become a featured event. After the Nationals recently drafted Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper in consecutive years, the topic of the top picks in the MLB draft has become a heated debated among baseball observers. With the high talent level this year, the discussions are raging louder than ever.
Considered to be a very deep draft pool, the 2011 class is heavy with pitching prospects. Names like Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy and Trevor Bauer are on the lips of all baseball analysts. Although not as strong in the hitting department, the media has worked overtime in profiling the likes of Anthony Rendon and Bubba Starling, among others. Looking at the early predictions of the “experts”, it appears that the expected draft results are literally all over the map. With the draft a little over a week away, the anxiety over the results of the draft continues to increase.
With so much talent in the 2011 draft, there appears to be a range of debate as to which team each players will be drafted by and in what draft position. Thanks to our inside scouts, MLB reports will shed some light for you today as to some of the expected results. We have compiled our list of rising and falling prospects and which teams have been linked to certain players. Are you ready for the inside scoops on the 2011 MLB draft? Let’s jump right into it and see what our scouts had to say about many of the players in the 2011 draft class (noted draft ranking by MLB.com beside each player and position):
RISING PROSPECTS
Dylan Bundy RHP (4) – Owassa HS (Okla.), Senior
“It’s not much of a rise when you are a top 5 pick, but with his strong on-field demeanor and stuff being among the best in the draft, he may end up with the best career of any 2011 draft member.”
Taylor Jungmann RHP (7) – Texas, Junior
“Looking like a great fit for #8 Indians. Cleveland has shown they have the bats in the system to compete and have stock piled arms lately. If they think they could compete in the next 3-4 years, then a college arm who could move quickly up their system is exactly what they will be looking for.”
Brandon Nimmo OF (30) – Cheyenne East HS (Wyo.), Sr.
“Big time bat that projects to move quick in nearly any system and the draft. This kid is loved by the New York Yankees but shouldn’t get past the Toronto Blue Jays or Milwaukee Brewers.”
Joshua Bell OF (23) – Jesuit College Prep (Texas), Senior
“One of the best true bats available. The Angels have outfielders spread throughout the organization, but the Angels must see a Trout/Bell outfield if he is available at #17.”
FALLING STARS
Taylor Guerrieri RHP (13) – Spring Valley HS (S.C.), Senior
“Multiple legal issues (had to switch high schools) and off-field issues could have Guerrieri slip. He is one of the top prep arms in the draft so someone will take a flyer high. If he gets by the #7 pick (Arizona), he could get into the teens.”
Kolten Wong 2B (25) – Hawaii, Junior
“Once a projected top 15 pick, many believe Wong may not go into the 1st round. The falling is for no-fault of his own. Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals and Tampa Bay Rays amongst most interested.”
Anthony Meo RHP (26) – Coastal Carolina, Junior
“Threw a no-hitter in Big South opener. Big time success at college level and should have a nice pro career (think Blake Cooper with more upside) but there are some concerns with his delivery. Some teams see Meo as a future reliever which could see him slip. Meo was drafted previously in the 43rd round in 2008 out of High School by the Nationals.”
Jake Eliopoulos LHP (N/A)
“Once taken in the 2nd round by the Blue Jays in 2009 (higher than Jake Marisnick), he decided to turn down the Jays offer of $525,000+ to go to school. Eliopoulos then attended two schools and was drafted again, this time by the Dodgers. With an ERA above 10.00 at junior college, he is currently pitching for the Jet Box Baseball Club and went 2 IP with 10 BB and was hitting 85-86 mph as per Bob Elliot (Twitter). I would expect the Jays or even Seattle to draft him in the late 40’s with little to no signing bonus just because of his past.”
What we are hearing: Players that Teams are Considering
Oakland Athletics: Daniel Norris, Alex Meyer, George Springer
New York Mets: Brandon Nimmo, Matt Barnes, Cory Spangenberg, Jed Bradley
Toronto Blue Jays: Sean Gilmartin, Josh Bell, Daniel Norris
Kansas City Royals: Dylan Bundy, Gerrit Cole, Bubba Starling
Where the Players are Likely to Land
Nick Ahmed – SS – University of Connecticut – Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals
Peter O’Brien (40) – C – Bethune-Cookman – Florida Marlins, New York Mets
Aaron Brown – OF – Chatsworth HS – Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres
Michael Reed – OF – Leander HS – Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros
Matthew Purke (27) – TCU – Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers
Andrew Chafin (39) – Kent State – Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves
Tyler Beede (50) – Lawrence Academy HS – Boston Red Sox, Cincinnati Reds
Tom Robson – Lander, BC – Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets
Kevin Matthews – Richmond Hill HS – Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers
Carter Capps – Mount Olive – Milwaukee Brewers
Mike Wright – East Carolina – Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins
Steven Proscia – University of Virginia – Kansas City Royals, Philadelphia Phillies
Andrew Faulkner – South Aiken HS – Atlanta Braves, New York Mets
Carlos Rodon – Holly Springs HS – Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals
Chuck Ghysels – University of Maryland – Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves
Justin Atkinson – North Surrey, BC – Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros
Trevor Gretzky (son of Wayne Gretzky) – Oaks Christen HS – Los Angeles Angels
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