Blog Archives
Roy Oswalt Working Back to True Form
Wednesday June 27, 2012
Bryan Sheehan (MLB Writer): Fourteen months ago, Roy Oswalt took a leave from the Philadelphia Phillies to be with his family after a series of tornadoes ripped through Mississippi. He left the team, where he was one of the showcased “Four Aces,” with a 3-1 record and a 3.33 ERA and returned with a sore back. He spent a short time on the disabled list, but returned to start in eight more games before once again landing on the DL with “lower back inflammation.” It is unclear whether his back troubles arose during his leave of absence, but Oswalt continued to pitch because he didn’t “want to be labeled a quitter.” Ultimately, his injury became too much, and during his latter stint on the DL there was doubt that he’d ever pitch again. He did return, though, and finished the year with a 9-10 record and 3.69 ERA. After his team faltered (or imploded, depending on how you look at it) in the playoffs, Oswalt declared free agency; his career was not over after all.
At age 34, Oswalt has appeared in eight playoff series, one World Series and three NLCS. When he hit the market last offseason, Oswalt made it clear that he wanted to play for a winner. More specifically, he wanted to play for a team that would have a great chance of winning it all. Like Roger Clemens in 2006 and 2007, Oswalt told teams that he would continue to stay in shape but wait until midseason to sign with the team that he thought would do the best in the postseason. On May 29th, Oswalt picked the 31-19 Texas Rangers and began his road back to the MLB.
Kansas City Royals: Do They Have Enough Pitching to Become Contenders?
Thursday May 24th, 2012
Bernie Olshansky: This season was all set up to finally be the year that the Royals would have a good chance to contend. The division became less competitive than normal with the White Sox losing Mark Buehrle and manager Ozzie Guillen, the Twins not making any big moves in the offseason besides signing Josh Willingham, and a second wild card being added to increase the possibility of making the playoffs. Royals’ fans have long waited for the team to make the playoffs as they have only had a winning record once since 1993. This year, the Royals have no shortage of hitting with young stars Eric Hosmer (first base)—who is struggling as of late but is showing signs of coming around, and third baseman, Mike Moustakas who is hitting .285. The Royals also have a strong outfield with Alex Gordon and veteran Jeff Francouer. Prospect Wil Myers, who was just promoted to Triple A, may offer more strength in the future, and Billy Butler, hitting .301 is the designated hitter. With a strong bullpen and hitting lineup beside the slumping Hosmer, right now the only weakness for the Royals is their starting pitching. Presently, Felipe Paulino is an exception with a 1.93 ERA, but it is doubtful that he will keep up his performance. Read the rest of this entry
Overlooked Veteran Pitchers That Could Pitch in 2012
Sunday April 29th, 2012
Sam Evans: In a recent interview with The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, former MLB legend Pedro Martinez said that he could be ready to pitch in only twenty days. Even though Pedro was probably joking, pretty much every team in baseball could use a quality back-end starter. So in honor of Pedro’s comments, let’s look at some free agents and veteran pitchers in Triple-A that could help MLB teams this year.
John Lannan, LHP, Syracuse Chiefs (WSH AAA): Perhaps the biggest surprise with the Nationals Opening Day roster had nothing to do with a certain Bryce Harper. National’s manager Davey Johnson decided to use Ross Detwiler instead of the veteran lefty John Lannan as the Nats’ fifth starter. Lannan who had a 3.70 ERA and 4.24 xFIP in thirty-three starts last year, was demoted to Triple-A. The Nationals could definitely trade Lannan, now that Detwiler has become a quality starter in the majors. A team like the Red Sox could acquire Lannan and he could provide some value to a Boston team lacking starting pitching.
Kyle Davies, RHP, Free Agent: Kyle Davies used to be the top pitching prospect in baseball. While he does deserve credit for surviving as a major league starter for a few years, Davies never reached his potential as top of the rotation starter. Last year with the Kansas City Royals, Davies only lasted thirteen starts. Even though his ERA was 6.75, his FIP was only 4.39. If Davies pitched like that for the rest of the season, he would have been worth around 2.3 WAR. That’s better than both Colby Lewis and Chad Billingsley’s 2011 WAR totals. I’m not saying Davies can become that kind of starter, but if someone gives him a fresh start he could hang on in a MLB rotation. He’s still only twenty-nine and a team could sign him to a minor league contract and see if he’s got anything left in the tank. Read the rest of this entry
No Need to Panic: The Phillies Do Not Need Offensive Help!
Sunday April 15, 2012
Bryan Sheehan: It may only be the middle of April, but already there are masses of Phillies fans ready to jump off a bridge because of the team’s 4-5 record. This is also spurred by the fact that the team has not hit at all on a regular basis, and the lineup seems devoid of any power. The club only has 16 extra base hits, with three of their 11 doubles coming today against the Mets, and a .345 slugging percentage pushes them towards the basement of the MLB. So, with a lineup that features the lanky Hunter Pence as a cleanup hitter and a catcher hitting sixth, is it time to worry about the Phillies 2012 season? Read the rest of this entry
Ask the Reports: ATR Answers Your Baseball Questions – February 25th, 2012
Saturday February 25th, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week: Read the rest of this entry
Ask the Reports: Your Baseball Questions Answered – Sunday February 5th, 2012
Sunday February 5th, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: I know you are a Jays fan. What’s your opinion on Joey Bats? How can he go from 15 HRs to leading the league 2 years in a row? Joe
JH: I am??!! I have been accused of many things, but a Jays supporter is not one of them. Being based in Toronto, many people naturally assume that I am a Jays fan. Plus we have many Jays readers and followers, so their team often comes up in conversation. Here is the scoop on many Jays fandom. If you have to categorize me a particular “team fan”, then the Tigers will be that pick. Only since AA has taken over the team have I been excited about the Jays prospects. JP did a masterful job of destroying the Jays farm system and creating a mediocre Jays squad for years. AA has swooped in and created a team that looks like they are on the verge of contention for years to come. I am a fan of the game overall (obviously). I like what the Jays are doing and see a bright future ahead…and that’s all I have to say about that.
As far as your Jose Bautista question, I see where you are going with it. Here are my thoughts. Back in August 2008, I was horrified when the Jays traded Robinson Diaz for Bautista. A young catcher with upside for a limited utility player? No thanks I said. From there, I was mortified when Bautista proceeded to become the home run king. I have heard the whispers of steroids/HGH/PEDs and how Bautista became a star overnight. I also heard the talk that Cito Gaston fixed his swing and got him to become more aggressive instead of swinging late. I think the latter, rather than the former are true. With drug testing in full swing, I would like to think that Bautista would have been caught had he been “juicing”. Can I guarantee? Absolute not, considering the Braun scandal. Some players do figure it out late in life and Jose Bautista appears to be one of the lucky few. Unfortunately, our cynical society does not allow us to be 100% confident in many of our modern athletes, with the amount of PEDs that have apparently flowed in the game. I would like to believe in Bautista. I really do. Let’s stick with the ‘innocent until proven guilty’ mentality and give him his due. Unless proven otherwise, Jose Bautista figured it out and turned into one of the best all-around players in the game. I am prepared to give credit where credit is due.
Q: Arbitration hearings have started. Is there a count of how many have been heard, how many left to hear and winners/losers? Old Man Mack
JH: A shout-out to the final people over at MLB Trade Rumors, as Tim, Ben and the gang do some fine work in providing the latest transactions in the world of baseball. If you haven’t visited it already, they have a dedicated page called Arbitration Tracker which will answer all your arbitration questions. You will be able to see all the figures submitted by both players and teams, the mid-point and the award amounts. By my count there are still 19 players left with scheduled arbitration cases (who could still settle beforehand). I have seen 2 cases heard and the players are 0-2 (Lannan and Niemann both lost their cases). A fascinating process, in my opinion most of these cases should be settled before arbitration. Likely a lot of hard feelings can be achieved but little else from going through arbitration. But budgets are budgets and money is money. Welcome the business side of baseball.
Q: Is Brett Lawrie in the top 100 (fantasy players)? Forrest
JH: Now that is interesting. Hmmmm….is Brett Lawrie a top-100 fantasy baseball right now? My answer off the cuff is…no. Maybe one day. But not today. Reason? There are thirty MLB teams. I can think of the top of my head at least 3-4 players per team that are better than Lawrie in fantasy terms right now. Don’t get me wrong, Lawrie is a stud. He is good and will get better. But we only have a very small sample size for him thus far in the big leagues. With his blazing start in 2011, you have to expect a bit of regression this year. It’s called the “sophomore jinx”. Will Lawrie fall victim? Maybe. Possibly. It also depends on your league. Lawrie to me is a strong player to have in a keeper league, while being less valuable in a non-keeper league. Right this minute, I would rather have players like Youkilis, Verlander, Fielder, Halladay, Rivera, Strasburg, Cabrera, Avila, Choo, Gallardo, Weaver, Haren, Mauer, Hernandez…and the list goes on. Lawrie is not far off and would make my top 120 or 130. Give him another year and you could be seeing a top 50 player…or higher!
Q: Do you think the Miami Marlins will Contend in the NL East this upcoming Season? Marty
JH: Contend- yes. Win- no. The Marlins are definitely improved, no doubt. But they have not done enough in my mind to take them over the top. The Phillies are still the team to beat, with the Braves being close behind. The Nationals? With their improved rotation, I would be very nervous about them. Reyes will bring excitement and Buehrle/Zambrano will help stabilize the rotation and Bell solid as the closer. But I just see some of the other teams being too strong. At best, I see the Marlins in 2nd place. But at worst? A 4th place finish. They are still missing a big bat and need all their key players to stay healthy. Too many if’s for my liking.
ATR: Who will enjoy being stretched out in 2012: Feliz, Sale, or Chapman? Justin
JH: Looking at the crystal ball, I am seeing clear visions. Neftali Feliz and Chris Sale are both headed back to the bullpens by June at the latest. Both have enjoyed success in the bullpen and I can see each being ok but not great starters. They could develop over time, with the White Sox having more patience than the Rangers. But in a sport with a “win now” mentality, both will be relievers if they cannot succeed early on. Chapman on the other hand, I am seeing a different vision. With Ryan Madson entrenched as the closer, I can see Chapman being needed more in the rotation. With his stuff, he would be a very dangerous starter if he could learn some control. That could come sooner rather than later, as early as 2012. At the very least, Chapman could be a fine 4th or 5th starter. He will go 5-6 innings per start and rack up a ton of K’s. So yes to Chapman, no to Feliz and Sale right now. Especially Feliz- as he will turn one day (if he hasn’t already) into a Papelbon lock-down closer. But if the Rangers aren’t careful, they could be hurting his long-term growth if they continue this see-saw back and forth like the Mariners did with Brandon Morrow some years ago.
Q: Who do you think will be in the World Series? Ethan
JH: I was discussing this with a reader the other day. He predicted the Dbacks and Tigers. I have to like those picks. If I had to look at the top-4 teams, I am seeing the Tigers/Angels in the AL and Reds/Dbacks in the NL. The Yankees, Rays and Rangers will still be strong, as will the Red Sox. The Phillies, Cards, Brewers and Giants will provide a challenge in the NL. But I can’t get over the look to the Angels and I am sensing good things coming out of Anaheim this year. The Dbacks look very powerful and have built a team that will contend for the next several years. But the Reds are a strong force and manager Dusty Baker should be able to get the most out of that squad this year. I would like to say Tigers and Dbacks as well- that would be my heart pick. But looking at the crystal ball, I am seeing Angels and Reds right now. I can’t say why. The crystal ball says what it says. If it changes in picture, I will let you know.
Q: What do the Nats gain from banning Phillies fans??? Tammy
JH: If this is not THE dumbest thing I have ever heard, it definitely comes close. For those that are not familiar, the Nationals are trying to block Philadelphia fans from buying tickets to Phillies/Nats games by curbing where you reside when buying single game seats. Silly. Silly. Silly. Firstly, the Nats have enough of an attendance problem as it is, so they certainly should not be limiting ticket sales. Secondly, by discouraging Phillies fans at the stadium, it will create a hatred type mentality for those fans that do make the games. Baseball is about the love of the game. Rather than discouraging certain fans, the Nats should encourage all fans to buy tickets to their park. This new idea will have the effect of creating a bitter rivalry between the two teams every time they play in Washington, which might actually be a good thing. But the issues and conflict that it could create in the stands between opposing fans is a negative one. Let’s not forget what recently happened between Dodgers and Giants fans when hatred becomes spread. People can become injured or even yet, have a risk of life. Let’s spread baseball love- not hatred people.
Q: Are the Tigers done? And not will they do this or not, but your thoughts on Jeff Francis for Detroit’s lefty problem? J Raddy
JH: They are not done. The Tigers are never done. With the addition of Prince Fielder, the Tigers are even more serious World Series contenders in 2012, despite the loss of V-Mart. When you have Verlander and Fister in the rotation, Avila behind the plate and Cabrera/Prince in the heart of the lineup- you are going to be winning a ton of baseball games. Jeff Francis, or a Francis type pitcher is not the answer. Firstly, he was already signed by the Reds. But secondly, too many question marks surround him. If the Tigers can score a true #3, like Roy Owalt- they will be unstoppable (if they aren’t already). The more likely scenario is the team going with what they have, with a tweak or two. Turner could be the #5 if he has a strong spring, with the club picking up a Fister type pitcher at the deadline. If no Oswalt, the Tigers could sign 1-2 veteran pitchers to minor league contracts and invite them to spring training. Near the end of spring, come cut time, they could then pick someone up to start the year. Dombrowski is a smart guy and knows what he doing. By the time October rolls around, don’t expect the exact same Tigers roster that you see today.
Q: Realignment 2013 Proposal: Dennis
al east nyy, bost , tap b, Miami. and balt
al central detr . min, chic w, torn, and clevel
al west tex, oak, sea, laa, and houst
nl east phil, atl, nym, wash, and pitts
nl central milw, stl, cin, chic c, and kann
nl west arz, sd, sf, col, and lad
play 4 divisional teams 18 games each and other 10 league teams 7 games each and one divisional of the league 4 games each. would only need to play 2, 2 games series in interleague play against the same team home and away all other series would be 3 or 4 games series. Only houst , kann, and miami would change leagues, and only Pittsburgh and Toronto would change divisions.
JH: Very ambitious my friend. Very ambitious indeed. I prepared an article on MLB realignment back in May 2011 that you should check out. I caught a ton of flack for it, but many people have a tough time with change. It is interesting the route that you have gone. Currently, only the Astros are moving (to the AL West), with the rest of the teams staying put. I agree that the current divisional alignments don’t work and need a shakeup. Ultimately, I would like to have 2 more expansions, bringing the total amount of teams to 32. I think only upon expansion will you see a true realignment in baseball. It’s not that I don’t like your plan- it has merits. But I am not sure geographically and with team rivalries why some of the changes would be implemented. KC and St. Louis in the same division is a no-brainer, as is Miami and Tampa Bay. We can definitely agree that more realignment is needed, but perhaps a shift in the number of divisions or the format on playoff seeding needs to shift as well. For now, we will have to live with Houston in the AL West in 2013 with 2 more likely added Wild Card teams for now.
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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen) Follow @mlbreports
Ask the Reports: Your Baseball Questions Answered – Sunday January 29th, 2012
Sunday January 29th, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: Hey guys; How close do y’all think Mr. Selig is to getting his 2nd Wild Card team hooked up to the ’12 season? Old Man Mack
MLB reports: Back again on Ask the Reports. Congrats OMM! Great question as always. This one is one of my favorite topics: the MLB playoffs. Bud Selig wants to a second Wild Card team to each league, starting this season. What Bud wants, Bud usually gets. Given that Selig just signed a contract extension, he is definitely not going anywhere for a long time. With the owners and union recently agreeing to their new agreement, baseball is truly functioning in one of its golden ages. Despite economy issues in the US, baseball popularity has never been higher. To capitalize on that fandom and increase the stakes, Selig should be able to put through the added Wild Cards (I give it a 92% chance of happening). The way it will work is simple. Each league will have two Wild Card teams. To start the playoffs, the Wild Card teams will face-off in a one-game, sudden death elimination game. Winner moves on to the playoffs (same format otherwise), with the loser going home. The Wild Card playoffs will be two of the most exciting games of the year. Yes, it should happen, it will likely happen and I fully expect it to happen. At the very least, it will give two more teams a chance to win the World Series and make August/September that much more interesting for more cities and fans.
Q: Will Tyler Pastornicky‘s solid contact skills and plate discipline shape up enough to secure a lead-off slot? Justin
MLB reports: That is what the Braves are claiming. Their website shows Pastornicky pencilled in as the starting shortstop. Will he? Should he? That is debatable. The 22-year old Pastornicky was acquired by the Braves from the Jays in the 2010 Yunel Escobar swap. A 5th round pick in 2008, Pastornicky was considered a fringe prospect at the time of the trade. A .250-.260 hitter with .330 OBP capabilities was his story. The number that jumps out is the stolen bases. 57 steals in 2009 (in 75 attempts) and 35 steals in 2010 (in 44 attempts). He could steal some bags, but was definitely not a refined baserunner. Somewhat raw, good tools and upside is how he was seen going into 2011. Last year, his first full one in the Braves organization- Tyler broke out. While the steals still needed work (27 in 38 attempts), the rest of his game started to jump. .314 AVG, ..359 OBP and .414 SLG. 32 walks/45 strikeouts in 117 games. While he still was not walking enough, he was clearly starting to hit while keeping the k’s down. With the glove, the number that jumps out is 26 errors last year. I am very nervous about Pastornicky as a starting shortstop in the majors. Spring training will determine if he graduates to the opening day lineup, but my gut is that the Braves will bring in a veteran between now and April to play shortstop. If he regresses back to his .250 AVG ways, with little power, inconsistent base stealing and errors in the field, this could be a recipe for disaster. I think Pastornicky needs time to develop, to play under a veteran that can mentor him and bring up his game. He is still young and clearly has the tools and potential. But if you throw him to the wolves too early, you can shatter his confidence. He may get there, but I don’t think he is ready yet. Especially on a playoff contender like the Braves, that relies on pitching and defense, this is one gamble that they are not likely to make. Great question- thank you for sharing!
Q: How do I get players to sign cards through the mail? Joe
MLB reports: Thanks for the question Joe. Fans love autographs, it is a big part of the game. If you are looking to meet your favorite player, there is a variety of way to get signed items. If you can make it down to spring training, that is an autograph hound’s paradise. Players are very accessible and accommodating in the spring. During the year, hanging out early in batting practice in the outfield, by the lines or near the dugouts are usually great spots. Teams often host autograph events and promotions before and after games, plus around local cities. Be sure to check the website of your favorite team to see their promotion schedule. If mail is your preferred route: here is what you do. Pull off the address for the team stadium that your chosen player plays at. Send that person a letter enclosing the item that you would like signed with a nice personalized letter. Be sure to include a self-addressed, stamped envelope inside for the return of your signed item. They may be well paid, but don’t expect the players/teams to pay for your postage- they get too many requests! Some tips: be polite, send a nice letter, be reasonable in your request (what you would like signed and send only 1-2 items) and be patient. Players get hundreds of requests per week and returning mail back to you can take time. Some are more likely to send back than others. My expectation: if you send out 20 requests, you may get 3-4 back. Reading the internet and watching games, you should get an idea on which are the “nice” players and likely to respond back. Good luck and let us know how your autograph hunts go! If any readers have other autograph tips for Joe, please feel free to include them in the comments section below, with your stories.
Q: Wouldn’t landing Oswalt make the Cards rotation even better than the famed Phillie crew? N.P.
MLB reports: When I first read that question, I almost choked on my breakfast. But then the more I thought about it, you are actually not that far off. The “famed” Phillie Fab-Four were Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt. Assuming Oswalt lands in St. Louis (which is likely to happen at this point, great fit based on NL Central), Oswalt/Oswalt balance out. That means we are left with the Phillie Three Aces against Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. It’s not far off as it may appear, but it involves many “ifs”. Will Carpenter stay healthy? Can Wainwright come back from surgery and a year missed time and re-establish himself as an ace? Will Jamie Garcia continue to evolve into a top starting pitcher and returning to his 2010 form…or his is 2011 regression a sign of things to come? Too many ifs for my liking. At their best, the Cardinals rotation could come close to the Phillies rotation, if all the pitchers pitch to their peak potential and 1-2 of the Phillies pitchers have off-years. Otherwise, the answer is no. Taking them one by one: I take Halladay over Carpenter. I know Carpenter won the famed 1-0 game in the NLDS, but that is one game. Overall, Doc is healthier, more consistent and one of the best of all-time. Cliff Lee is Cliff Lee. He is as solid as them come. Wainwright if he comes back might be close to Lee, but still won’t be Lee in my opinion. Lee is just on another planet and Wainwright just needs to prove health, let alone be an ace. Hamels is due to be a free agent at season’s end. He may end up signing an extension (likely), but regardless of his contract situation- he is far superior to Garcia. The Cards should have a great rotation overall. But the Phillies staff…they still ain’t. But consider Dave Duncan is on a leave of absence and may not be back this season and I give the Phillies advantage in the rotation.
Q: Where do you see Edwin Jackson landing? Sox Wamp
MLB reports: This one is easy. If it boils down to money and years, he will land in Baltimore or a city like Seattle. If he wants to contend, Jackson may have to take a 1-year deal from the Red Sox. I am not an Edwin Jackson guy. Never have been. Never will be. Well…never say never never (hey Justin Bieber). At 28-years of age, Jackson may figure it out. It feels like he has been around forever, considering he has played 9 major league seasons. That shows you how young he was when he came to the bigs. If he was allowed to refine himself in the minors and learn control and the true art of pitching, Jackson could be one of the best on the planet. His stuff is that good. But with a 1.476 lifetime WHIP (1.437 in 2011), he is far from a control ace pitcher. The funny thing is that he doesn’t even strike out enough people. A pitcher who doesn’t strike out many, gives up too many hits and walks????!!!! No thank you. Someone will pay and give him a 3-year, $30 million contract. Or he may go to Boston and try to build up value. Jackson though would be smart to take the guaranteed money. He is a ticking time bomb that could go off at any time. Good luck to the team that signs him, I hope they have a strong pitching coach and lots of video to coach this quasi-project still.
Last Question (this is a biggie): No lefty has hit more than 14 HR at Comerica in one season. If that is the Avg do you see him (Prince Fielder) hitting 24 on the road? Steve Karsay
MLB reports: Yes folks, this is THE Steve Karsay appearing on Ask the Reports. A good friend of ours, we appreciate Steve taking the time to write in with his inquiry. Firstly, thank you Steve for the question. A great one…one that many fans have been asking since the big signing. As you and I have talked before on Prince, you know that I am a believer of the big man. I like the move for the Tigers on many levels (check out my top 10 reasons why the Prince signing will work, my recent feature on the Reports. There are some factors to consider. Carlos Pena back in the day had those 14 bombs. Other than Pena and maybe Granderson, have the Tigers ever had a left-handed power-hitting machine like Prince? I would say no. Maggs? Righty. Juan Gonzalez? Righty. Miggy? Righty. So in fairness to Prince, we don’t have a scale of players to compare him against. Also in 2003, the park dimensions changed and it became easier to hit balls out of Comerica. I have attended many many many games in Comerica in my day. I have seen approximately 2 home runs per game on the average. Now that may not be the biggest sample size (50-75 games), but large enough that I would say that park is far from a pitcher’s haven. I can see Prince hitting 24 home runs on the road, yes. But I see him hitting at least 20 home runs per year at home. Maybe not every year, but it will happen. The great thing about records, is that they are meant to be broken. That is part of Prince’s object to coming to Detroit. To establish new records and become “the man” in Motown. Fans are excited to see what a Prince/Miggy combination can do in Detroit. For your Indians Steve, it means the road to the playoffs just got that much tougher. Thank you for the question and you are welcome anytime back on the Reports!
ARCHIVE: Click here for Past Issues of Ask the Reports
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen) Follow @mlbreports
Ask the Reports: Your Baseball Questions Answered – Sunday January 15th, 2012
Sunday January 15th, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: Any news on moves for Derrek Lee & Casey Kotchman? With Yanks recent pitching acquisitions, does Boston pursue Roy Oswalt more aggressively? Rick
MLB reports: Great questions Rick. No and no are the answers. Sorry! To answer your first question: Lee and Kotchman are plans “c” and “d”, if that, for contending teams. Teams on the rise would prefer to use younger players at first base. So the market for both is limited at best. Both Lee and Kotchman will need to fight to get full-time jobs. Kotchman will find something based on his solid 2011 campaign. Perhaps a return to the Rays is in order. Lee on the other hand, is getting on in years. I could see him retiring at this point, or in a year from now. It just depends on how desperate some teams are to get a veteran presence on their team and if trust is there for either player. With regards to Oswalt, I see him signing very soon. Boston could use him, yes, but I am not sensing a fit. The top teams for his services appear to be the Rangers and Jays. At 1-year and $8 million, he will likely have 20+ teams pursuing him. Boston does need Roy Oswalt in the worst way at this point. He would help stabilize a rotation that needs his presence. But this decision will come down to geography and fit for the player.
Q: Is Jesus Montero– Victor Martinez good? How far is J.P. Arencibia or Travis d’Arnaud from Montero? Derek
MLB reports: The Montero questions begin! I made the comparison on the trade of the trade that Montero was comparable to V-Mart and I stand behind that one. Carlos Santana is another good comparison. Extremely strong bat, will hit for high average with good pop. Glove is questionable. Montero will be good, I am just on the fence on whether it will happen in Seattle. The hope is that with a young team, he will blossom into a superstar. It will depend on whether he feels any pressure to live up to replacing Michael Pineda and ends up putting too much pressure on himself. He seems like a confident young man, so he should do well. The V-Mart threshold is a high one to reach. But we are definitely talking in the same category. Now d’Arnaud and Arencibia are a different story. Being based in Toronto, I get asked on these guys often. Here is my take put simply. Arencibia is a good guy, with good power in his bat. He is popular in the clubhouse and seen as a developing defensive catcher. His liabilities are his low average, high strikeouts and inability to take a walk. A .219 AVG and .282 OBP don’t cut it in my book. If JP doesn’t develop, he will become the Rob Deer of catchers. Travis d’Arnaud, on the other hand, may not have JP’s power (debatable), but he will definitely hit for a much higher average. He also will need to learn to take walks and cut down on strikeouts, but he should be more consistent offensively than Arencibia. Defensively, I have heard mixed things- but both will stick at catcher. So defensively, both Arencibia and d’Arnaud are above Montero. But Montero’s bat is far superior to either of the other guys. He is major league ready now to hit, while JP and Travis are still learning to hit consistently. If I had to rate each, I would give Montero an 8/10, d’Arnaud a 6/10 and Arencibia a 5/10. Montero is far ahead, with only d’Arnaud having the best chance to close the gap.
Q: Do the Phillies really expect Ryan Howard to be fully “baseball ready” before June 1st? Old Man Mack
MLB reports: LOL. That is the hope sir. If I had to be a fly on the wall, I bet the Phillies are hoping that he will be ready before that. But if the Kendrys Morales injury has taught us anything, is that you never know how some of these freak accidents will heal. My crystal ball sees Howard back after the All-Star break. Unless he is 110% healed, why risk it? His long-term health and productivity are at risk. I would not be shocked if Howard took longer to heal and had to miss all of 2012. But chances are that he will be back, just not till sometime in July or August of 2012. If he is back sooner, he better be ready…or a setback could be around the corner. I would say the bigger question is how long he stays in the lineup, rather than when he is back.
Q: What are the Tigers chances on Yoenis Cespedes? Michael
MLB reports: The Cespedes rumors are flying fast and furious. The teams that have been most linked to him are the Marlins and the Tigers. There have been stories of 5 teams, 10, 20…all sorts of numbers thrown around about this guy. Now, people are questioning why he is playing winter ball and in fact hurting his stock. My gut feel is that there isn’t as high of a demand for him as people suspect and that teams are cautious at throwing big money at an unknown quantity. But even if he doesn’t put up the best numbers this offseason, it has to be considered that he is rusty and been away from the game for some time. People should not expect Babe Ruth immediately, just to view his tools and to see if the mechanics are there. I like the Marlins chances best at signing Cespedes. Team Latino gets a 50% chance of landing Cespedes, with the Tigers at roughly 20%.
Q: Does Vance Worley come back to earth in his sophomore season? Justin
MLB reports: Nah man, Vance never left! Just kidding, but I know what you mean. Vance Worley was unbelievable in 2011, with an 11-3 record, 3.01 ERA and 1.230 WHIP. His won/loss record will depend largely on his offensive support and bullpen, so that we will leave to fate somewhat. I see Vance throwing quality strikes and keeping his walks low. He will not be an ace, but he will be very steady. He has the minor league track record and has already proven himself at the highest stage (in one of the most pressure filled environments, Philadelphia). Expect some regression, but not too much. Vance Worley is the real deal. A sophomore jinx should be avoided, but he will still take time to develop. Remember he is only 24-years of age. By year 3 or 4, expect a stud 20 game winner to emerge.
Q: With the new players eligible for the 2013 Hall of Fame class (Bonds, Clemens, Sosa etc.): will any be inducted? Ken
MLB reports: Ken. Ken. Ken. Mr. I say that Tim Raines MUST be inducted. 🙂 He is back for more… Just playing with you Ken, you know we love ya. 48.7% of the vote Ken, I guess the voters aren’t all sold…yet. Here is my knock on Raines- get ready. Played 23 seasons. Not a bad thing in its own right. But definitely inflated some of his numbers. 980 RBIs. So he averaged less than 50 a year. 1571 runs scored. For 23 years played, not fantastic. A hall of fame leadoff man should easily be scoring 100+ per year, even on poor teams. Raines only did it 6 times. .294 AVG and .385 OBP. Very good. Like those numbers. The man did not hit many doubles or triples. He was basically a singles and stolen base machine. Now go check out our man Vince Coleman. Both in their primes, they were one of the top stolen base threats. Raines got more hits and got caught less stealing. But then Coleman appears to have attempted more stolen bases. Raines played longer and ultimately had the stronger career. But in the prime years, I can’t say that Raines was that much more spectacular than Coleman. Raines is very good and will get into the hall of fame the Jim Rice route. But it is not the Hall of Very Good. It is the Hall of Fame.
Now with your true question: Will any of the new eligible players be inducted into Cooperstown in 2013? The candidates are Bonds, Clemens, Piazza, Sosa, Schilling, Biggio and Lofton. I can tell you right now, based on Palmeiro and McGwire’s poor standings, that there is no chance in heck that Bonds, Clemens or Sosa are getting in. No way. No how. The ones I see getting in are Biggio and Piazza. Secretly, I have fantasized at night about Biggio and Bagwell getting in together. It was just meant to be. If Bagwell does not get in next year, then he will have to wait for some time. I feel next year will be his year. Piazza has to get in as a 1st ballot hall of famer. The numbers he put up as a catcher demand it. Next year is the year that hall of fame voters get their true test. If Piazza is out, then the hall of fame will really have to sit down and work out a better set of criteria for voting. The writers are going to feel like they are on a raft without paddles…it is time to fix the voting mess once and for all. Are these guys hall of famers or not? Let’s lay down the law and be done with it. No more fence-sitting. 2013 will be a big year for sure.
Q: Over/under 13.5 psychotic episodes in Miami? Sam
MLB reports: Under. Way under! I think you will see maybe 5-6 big blow ups. Carlos Zambrano will get into 1-2 confrontations. Hanley will explode about the position change once. LoMo will have one twitter incident. Ozzie will have a couple of issues likely develop. Apparently the Miami Marlins are being considered for the baseball reality show this year. If that happens, watch out. That will be Grade A television!!!
Final Q: Will the Brewers be able to win the central despite losing Prince and no Braun for first 50 games? Eric
MLB reports: My brain says no and my heart says maybe. The reality is that the Brewers are in tough. Very tough. The loss of Prince will be huge (when it happens) and same with Braun if the suspension is upheld. But even with those guys, the Brewers would still be in tough. The Cardinals, even with the loss of the Pujols and La Russa and absence of Duncan would still be a strong team. The Reds though are the team to beat, as they are frontrunners to take the NL Central this year. The Brewers still have Greinke and Gallardo, so they have a chance. But I just see the Reds as the class of the division this year. The Cardinals are going to regress and will have a tough time defending their title. But without their main offensive stars, the Brewers go from stars to ordinary. The window appears to be closing on the Brewers… and opening for the Reds in 2012.
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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen) Follow @mlbreports
Ask the Reports: Sunday January 1st, 2012
Sunday January 1, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: With just 7 weeks until spring training, which teams are looking really good for the 2012 season? Heather
MLB reports: Great question Heather. I presume you mean which teams are playoff contenders for 2012. At this point, I really like the Rays, Tigers, Angels and Rangers in the AL. These teams have the best balanced rosters that are built to make it to the playoffs. In the NL, it’s the Phillies, Reds, Dbacks and Braves (maybe Cards). Those are the strongest 8 teams that I am projecting for playoff positions at this point. There will be many improved teams to keep an eye on. The Jays continue to be on the rise in Toronto. The Royals are slowly preparing to make their move. I like what the Nationals are building in Washington. The Pirates are slowly putting together a nice stable of young prospects. The Padres are going to be a serious force very soon, perhaps as soon as this year. The common theme is good pitching and depth within the lineup. The above teams are the ones that are getting it right in my book.
Q: Will the Baseball Writers snub Tim Raines once again? David
MLB reports: Raines since 2008 has his percentage of votes rise from 24% to 37.5%. This is a tough one for the voters. I have studied the numbers and I don’t give Raines a vote. He was very good…but not Hall of Fame good in my book. Ultimately Raines will get in, as he is more deserving that say Jim Rice in my opinion. But he is one of those slow candidates that will climb every year and get to 75% in the last couple of years of eligibility. Raines is a fringe hall of fame candidate and it shows in his vote totals. Keep in mind it is the hall of fame, not the hall of very good. If we are going to put only the best of the best in the hall, Raines should not be in. But considering the track records of some recent inductees, then yes, Raines should be in. But don’t expect it anytime soon and definitely not in 2012. Raines will have to play the waiting game like many other fringe candidates.
Q: Any chance the Mets sign Prince Fielder? I know- I doubt the money is there, but still… I’d also like to think they can win the WS… Jon
MLB reports: All I have to say is…huh? You must really love your Mets, but you need to get a reality check on their chances. To answer your questions: firstly, no chance the Mets get Prince Fielder. For so many reasons. They cannot afford him. Given the Wilpon financial issues and the fact that the team is looking for a minority owner for a bailout, the team cannot take on Fielder’s salary. All the money in the budget has already been spent, so the team will go with Ike Davis again at first base. Davis has been a pleasant surprise and should continue to develop. Secondly, no way that Prince will want to go to the Mets. The team is not a contender and has too many black eyes from an image perspective. Prince would not want to get caught in the Mets mess right now. Plus, even with the outfield dimensions changing, I doubt Prince will want to play in that ballpark. As far as winning the World Series, pop in a DVD and watch the glory year of 1986. It should give you some comfort until the team returns back to glory, sometime in the next 5-10 years. I don’t mean to be hard on you Jon, but sometimes in baseball the fans need some tough love. I am being honest because I care. Don’t stop supporting your Mets: just be realistic so that you are not in for a letdown. Expect nothing and you will have your expectations exceeded!!!
Q: What’s your opinion on how my Kansas City Royals will fair this season? Michael
MLB reports: Better than many people think Michael. The Royals will not make the playoffs, but they will be a .500 squad. The hitting is really coming together and could get the boost of Wil Myers in mid-2012 if he gets the call. Things are on the rise in Kansas City. The Royals will be finishing in 3rd place, behind the Tigers and Indians. I could even see a 2nd place finish if everything falls into place. The team just has so much talent at every position, with the rotation being the only question mark for me. Perez, Butler, Hosmer, Giavotella, Escobar, Moustakas, Gordon, Cain and Francoeur. A bullpen stacked by Soria, Broxton, Crow, Collins, Mijares, Wood and Holland. On the field and in the pen, the Royals have the power to succeed. The rotation is a little more of a patchwork job. The team needs Danny Duffy to put it together and top pitching prospect John Lamb to return to form after a lost year to injury. I see 2013-2015 being the Royals time to shine. But with the team set to host the All-Star game this coming year, they should have an exciting product on the field. This will not be their year, but the first real step towards respectability. Enjoy this young team, if nothing else they will be fun to watch.
Final Question: What are the chances of any of these guys coming to Boston: Oswalt(P) Garza(P) Saunders(P) Spilborghs(RF) Quentin(RF)? Rick
MLB reports: Great question Rick. Fans are wondering what the Red Sox have up their sleeve. Unfortunately, I don’t think you will like the response on this one. Matt Garza comes at a big price of prospects that the Red Sox will not likely pay. Plus considering how long it took for Theo to make the jump to the Cubs and the negotiation of compensation and movement of front office staff, I don’t see the teams matching up well for a trade. Roy Oswalt will have many options considering that he will only get a 1-2 year deal. I don’t think he will be that excited to play in Boston. I see him more likely ending up back in the NL, or going to Texas or the Jays. Carlos Quentin is already in San Diego and will be the team’s new cleanup man. A native son, Quentin could stay long-term in San Diego. Whether the BoSox get Ryan Spilborghs or not is irrelevant for me. He just doesn’t excite me as a player with much potential. I could see Joe Saunders heading to Boston as a middle of the rotation starter. He would be an innings eater more than anything, not a real impact guy. It looks to me like the BoSox are going with what they have for the most part, with only minor tweaks coming. The team has the talent, so the bigger question is how the players respond to new manager Bobby Valentine. How Bobby V gets his players prepared and focused will decide if the BoSox can return to their glory days.
ARCHIVE: Click here for Past Issues of Ask the Reports
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
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