You all know what happened this past Sunday. One of my– and the game’s– favorite players died. Selfishly, I was upset. I never knew the guy, and my team, the Atlanta Braves, had recently thrown at his head. But now he’s gone. He leaves behind a legacy that won’t soon be forgotten– Dave Cameron can’t wait to tell his children about Jose Fernandez, and the Marlins are going to retire his number so that little kids who attend games will forever ask their parents about Number 16– but I think Max summed it up perfectly on Sunday: this sucks.

A few days have passed and baseball had its Jose Fernandez wake on Monday, and Dee Gordon hit the most important and magical homerun of his life. But I still feel like Jose Fernandez is around. I am not going to try to do any sort of tribute article; I simply would not do a good job if I tried. Someone a year younger than me dying leaves me a bit scatterbrained.

Instead, I’ll try and write a baseball article, which I think will be difficult and awkward, but necessary. The realization crept into my head today that Jose Fernandez is going to appear on Cy Young ballots. The voters list their top 3 pitchers and Fernandez leads the Majors in fWAR, is second in strikeouts, and while he sits 8th in ERA, he actually leads the league in the two primary ERA predictors, FIP and xFIP. He was among the top handful of starting pitchers in the game in his first real season back from Tommy John.

To continue reading about Jose Fernandez Cy Young voting, please visit my full website at Off The Bench.

Ivan Nova’s trade to the Pittsburgh Pirates at this year’s deadline failed to attract many headlines among the deluge of significant deals completed on the 1^st of August. Yet Nova’s performances since arriving in Pittsburgh have brought an under the radar trade firmly into the spotlight. Whilst the Pirates’ playoffs hopes look to have been muted, sitting 6 games back of the 2^nd NL wildcard spot, Nova’s performances lend hope to a possible revival of fortunes in 2017. In 7 starts in a Pirates uniform Nova has posted an impressive 5-0 record with a 3.00 ERA, 3.02 FIP and average gamescore (v2) of 62.

Compare that to Nova’s first half of the season in New York as a starter (Nova made 6 relief appearances between April 6^th and May 1st) and the apparent improvement since the trade is drastic:

During the second half of the season Nova ranks 14^th in the Majors in ERA, 42^nd in FIP and 40^th in WAR, trailing only Jameson Taillon for the Pirates in the last two categories.

Please click on over to Off The Bench to continue reading about How the Pirates Made Ivan Nova Better. 

As sad as it is to consider, this is it. The final month of Regular Season Baseball. For most teams, the final month of baseball, period. (Until next spring of course, and yes, I’m already excited for that.)

But! Before we get ahead of ourselves and get all worked up about seeing Gary Sanchez cranking balls into the Tampa sunset, let’s take a look at where we stand now. Which teams are pretty well Locked in for the postseason? Which are right on the cusp of an unexpected run? Which need to get their act together? And which are praying for the merciful arrival of October 2nd?

Let’s take a look:

Group 1: The Top Tier

1.Chicago Cubs

2.Texas Rangers

3.Washington Nationals

There is a big drop off between the Cubs and everyone else, with Chicago cruising toward a divisional crown, having somehow lived up to the crazy hype from last February. At this point, they are basically running out the clock until games that count.

Texas and Washington are pretty secure division leaders themselves. DC isn’t playing the greatest baseball headed into the stretch run, but both are definitely better than any other team in their divisions, and should rightly be turning attention to the postseason soon. (For Nationals fans, the process of steeling for the inevitable first round exit is already underway.)

To continue reading, please check out Off The Bench’s Power Rankings.

When the Arizona Diamondbacks signed Yasmany Tomas to a $60 Million dollar deal, many thought the Cuban “third-baseman” would be an instant star. Little is known about Cuban players when they come over; their skills are often exaggerated and their numbers on the Cuban National Series inflated. While some players, such as Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Abreu, do come over and become instant stars, others, such as Hector Olivera, simply don’t have what it takes to make it in the majors. For the better part of last year, Tomas seemed a lot closer to the bust category than major league stardom. That assessment seems destined to change soon.

Too quick and binary is our collective assessment of players. They’re either good or bad and we know within the first weeks of April. We care little about their story, or struggles to adapt. It’s the Twitter era; context and nuance is dead.

That is the story of Yasmany Tomas. The Diamondbacks miscast Tomas as a third baseman and the metrics hated him there. They probably knew he was not a third baseman, but there he was. Unable to help the team defensively, and struggling a bit in his first offensive season at the Major League level, Tomas got a label. He was a bust, just another of the missteps in a reign of terror  for a Diamondbacks front office that doesn’t even know the rules.

But that label loses all context.

To continue reading about the context that shows Yasmany Tomas may be on his way to stardom, please check out the full article at Off The Bench.

When Matt Moore first broke into the majors in 2011, I thought he was the left handed Stephen Strasburg. I couldn’t understand why he wasn’t getting the same hype.

Turns out, Moore wasn’t as heralded as Strasburg because he isn’t as good but that’s not a knock on the Giants’ new lefty as much as a tip of the cap to Stras’ unbelievable stuff.

Moore has battled injuries for most of his short career but for the most part, when he’s been healthy, he’s been good. Matt posted a 3.81 ERA in his first full season and a 3.29 over 150 innings in his second, good enough for an All Star selection and some Cy Young votes. After a promising start to 2014, he had Tommy John surgery and 2015 was bit rocky, Moore posted 5.43 ERA in just 12 starts and this season hasn’t been a ton better. So far, Moore has a 4.08 ERA in 130 innings, good for a rather pedestrian 1.4 WAR.

There’s more to the story though. It usually takes a year and half or so for pitchers to really recover from Tommy John. They come back after a year but they typically aren’t truly effective for another 6 months or so. Want evidence? Look at Adam Wainwright. Moore is just about to enter that period.

Please visit Off The Bench to continue reading about why Matt Moore will do well on the Giants, including Max’s theory that a veteran staff could help mentor young Matt.

Over the course of the past year or so, numerous teams have initiated a rebuilding process. (Interestingly, most if not all of them reside in the National League.) Each rebuild is different; each team has a unique philosophy on how a roster should be managed, through both the good times and bad.

Some teams, typically those in larger markets that can afford larger pay rolls, seem to feel that they can remain contenders and avoid a true rebuild. Others, usually the middling and smaller market teams, may choose to do a complete teardown, following the Cubs’ strategy of getting worse before getting better.

There is no book on how to rebuild a bad team into a perennial contender, but generally, the first step is to move veterans in exchange for players or prospects under team control and at a much cheaper cost. Roster flexibility and less long-term financial strain is paramount.

Let’s take two case studies sampling teams with contrasting rebuilding strategies: The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves went with the cut bait and tear it down approach, while the Phillies attempted to squeeze every bit of success possible out of an aging roster before waiving the white flag. After the analysis, I’ll grade them—and you should too by posting in the comments.

First, the Braves. (You will notice that players such as Shelby Miller and Hector Olivera are not included, as they were both traded for and traded away during the rebuild.)

Atlanta Braves

Start of Rebuild – 2014/2015 Offseason

Payroll Range:

• 2016 Opening Day Payroll – $86 million
• Highest Opening Day Payroll – $112 Million (2014)

Notable Players Traded Away…

You’re going to have to click over to Off The Bench to continue reading about the Braves and Phillies rebuilding efforts from Alex Vacca. Please enjoy.

The Tampa Bay Rays have reportedly been shopping their starting pitching, a move that I called for back in May. The Rays have more than enough pitching, but lack the position players to compete in the very difficult AL East. Their team just doesn’t quite all fit together.  I guess that’s what happens when you’re poor and are constantly collecting items that other people have seemingly failed to value properly.

Think about it: does a homeless man ever seem to have a full wardrobe or ensemble? No, his shiny new shoes might look fly, but they’ll be paired with socks that have seen better days. The Rays have always had Evan Longoria as their shiny new shoes, and they seem to constantly pair that with a supa-fly button-down shirt of a rotation, but lack the run-scoring pant’s, socks, and underwear necessary to support it. That the approach has led to a last place standing here in 2016.

With news that they’re shopping Archer, it would appear that their thinking evolving: they’re trying to swap that swanky button-down for a nice T-shirt, and set themselves up with a decent pair of pants that will score some runs. It makes sense to me (and I hope you followed that analogy).

Analogies aside, the bigger issue Chris Archer, his 2016 season, and what he might command on the market.

Archer currently sports a 4.42 ERA and leads the league in losses. That’s the type of guy who wouldn’t fetch much in return. But those two basic stats fail to highlight Archer’s overall package. The guy currently leads the league in strikeouts, with 155 in 130 innings. He’s 27 now, and coming off of a 5th place Cy Young performance last year. He’s signed through 2021 on a very reasonable contract, and is still chucking his fastball in there at an average of 94.1 mph.

When the rumors cropped up that Archer was being shopped, plenty of teams started doing their homework. They were, and likely still are, trying to determine if he’s the pitcher that had the baseball world abuzz last year, or if he’s like a really nice and likable AJ Burnett. Let’s do our homework along with those other teams.

The first thing to understand about Archer is that he’s simply been wildly inconsistent. Below are his single game ERA’s for the season (thanks Fangraphs!). You’ll notice that good performances are followed by bad ones, or vice versa. He’s been all over the place. That’s way more frustrating for fans, Archer, and evaluators than if he were simply good/bad.

OK, we’ve established that he’s been inconsistent, but I really wanted to find out why. I went to Statcast and started playing around, looking for anything that could help explain these fluctuations. I looked at all kinds of stuff: Velocity differences, straight velocity, perceived velocity, spin rate, spin rate differences across pitches, pitch selection. None of them correlated very well with Archer’s Game Scores. I used game scores, because that combines his ERA with other predictors of success, like walks, strikeouts, and hits allowed into a single metric.

The one thing that I found that appears to predict success? Well, you’re going to have to click over to find out more about Chris Archer’s fastball profile. I promise it’s worth it. There’s a fancy graph and everything.

Aroldis Chapman is now a member of the Chicago Cubs. It had long been speculated that Chapman would be on the move at some point, as the Yankees currently sit 7.5 games back in the AL East, as well as 4.5 games out from the second wild card spot with a record of 50-48 and while this deficit may not seem too large, the Yankees have question marks all over their lineup and rotation. 39-year-old Carlos Beltran, who like Chapman is in a contract year, has been the team’s best hitter.  The rotation has failed to find consistency beyond Masahiro Tanaka. It all adds up to the Yankees -25 run differential on the season; the other three teams ahead of them in the AL East all have a run differential of +40 or better. The Chicago Cubs, on the other hand, lead the entire league in both record, 59-38, as well as run differential, at +150.

The deal that has been agreed to is as follows:

New York Yankees Receive:

1. SS Gleyber Torres
2. RHP Adam Warren
3. OF Billy Mckinney
4. OF Rashad Crawford

Chicago Cubs Receive:

1. LHP Aroldis Chapman

New York’s Side of the Deal:

For the first time since I can remember, the Bronx Bombers have decided to sell pieces from their major league roster at the trade deadline rather than make a run at a championship. GM Brian Cashman picked a great time to do so. Just about every contender in the league is in the market for relief help, and Aroldis Chapman, a rental player who will become a free agent at season’s end, just so happened to be the best one available. As a result, the Yankees were able to demand a return package that was far and away greater than the one they had to give up for Chapman in March.

To continue reading about why the Cubs and Yankees needed to make the Aroldis Chapman trade, please visit Off The Bench.

For most teams in the Yankees’ situation, becoming a deadline seller would be a no-brainer. But New York has long suffered from ‘Yankee Pride,’ a mental block that prevented the front office to from making the right decisions for the franchise going forward. Trading Aroldis Chapman is the first true signal that they might have gotten past it.

Seemingly since the close of the World Series in 2009, the team’s last championship, the New York Yankees have been running out lineups of increasingly aging, immobile, progressively unwatchable former superstars, capable of winning 85 games– no more, no less.

Of course, that’s perception more than reality– the Yankees finished in second in 2010 and won the AL East in 2011 and 2012, making it to the ALCS in 2012– but for Yankee fans accustomed to winning, or at the very least, exciting baseball, a la the Core Four Era, it’s been a bit of a drag.

Since 2013, for instance, the Yankees have finished no closer than 6 games out in the division, making the playoffs for one measly day, while the Red Sox hoisted their third championship banner of the 2000’s. It’s been a pretty dramatic fall from grace.

But things seem to have come to a head this season. The team is in 4th place in the division….

To Continue reading about what Yankee fan Max Frankel (@OTBB_Max) thinks about What the Aroldis Chapman trade means for the Yankees Future, please check out Off The Bench.

The Seattle Mariners are just about in the race for a playoff berth. An improbable 6-5 win over the White Sox in 11 innings last night, after having been down 5-2 in the 7^th, leaves the team 6.5 games behind the slumping Rangers in the AL West and 5.5 behind the final Wild Card spot.

For most clubs at this time of the year this would dictate aggressively approaching the trade market in an attempt to force their way into the postseason. Yet with yesterday’s trade between the Mariners and Cubs, with Mike Montgomery heading to Chicago in return for Triple-A slugger Dan Vogelbach, have the Mariners just revealed their hand?

The instant reaction to the trade has been one of quiet satisfaction on both sides, the Cubs got their high-leverage lefty out of the pen without having to pay an astronomical price for Andrew Miller or Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees. Vogelbach also represents good value for the Mariners, offering insurance for a declining Adam Lind and plenty of upside on top of that. Furthermore, Vogelbach’s route to the Majors with the Cubs was blocked by Anthony Rizzo who isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.

Yet still – has a seemingly even and mutually beneficial swap signaled the Mariners’ intentions that 2016 is not to be their year, thereby positioning themselves as sellers come the deadline on July 31^st? To answer this question, 3 factors need to be considered:

1. Just how good is Mike Montgomery?
2. Can Dan Vogelbach improve the Mariners this year?
3. Finally, does the Mariners current record of 48-47 reflect their potential?

To continue reading about how yesterday’s trade impacts the rest of the Mariner’s season, please visit Off The Bench. (Click that last link)

The Home Run Derby is made for the fans, specifically it’s ideal for kids. As we become a jaded society drowning in overexposure to soundbites and headlines, the home run derby still provides a respite to dream on what is possible. We get to watch a collection of the best home run hitters in the world strut their stuff, flex their muscles, and display the skill of their perfectly honed swings. This year, Giancarlo Stanton reminded us all that he’s the modern home run king. He’s not the first home run king; though and Off the Bench just ran a great infographic recapping some of the awesome performances of the past.

Over the course of the past two weeks, the Boston Red Sox have been very active in the trade market, first by acquiring Aaron Hill from the Milwaukee Brewers, then by adding Brad Ziegler in a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Most recently, Dave Dombrowksi made a bold move to acquire lefty Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres in exchange for highly-regarded pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza. With these additions, the Red Sox have improved all three major areas of need: bench depth, the bullpen, and the rotation. Dombrowski may or may not be done dealing, but regardless of what he does moving forward, the pressure has been put on the remaining teams in the AL East to make moves to improve their own rosters. The Orioles may have been leading the division entering play Sunday, but they have needs of their own, and both the Red Sox and Blue Jays are hot on their trail. The Yankees and Rays, on the other hand, may be falling out of the race, but still have reason to be active as the trade deadline nears.

Given the increase in trade market activity in recent weeks, I would like to look at which moves each remaining team in the AL East should make before the trade deadline, whether that means to improve their playoff chances, or to plan for 2017 and beyond. Below, you will find three tables showing both hitting and pitching statistics for each AL East team (numbers courtesy of FanGraphs). Notice which team ranks first in each table. Hint: the leaders for OPS, starting pitcher ERA, and bullpen ERA are each a different playoff contender.

*All records and stats as of the start of play on Sunday, July 17^th.

Baltimore Orioles, 53-36, .596, 43 RDif, 1^st in AL East

Trade for Oakland LHP Rich Hill

Don’t look too much into the fact that the Orioles are currently in first place in the standings. While Baltimore’s offense is legit, owning the highest isolated slugging number in the East with a .194 mark, they have some serious concerns in their starting rotation. Despite a very good first half from staff Ace Chris Tillman (13-2, 3.29 ERA) the O’s still rank last in the division with a 5.10 staff ERA. Behind Tillman, the rotation has not been so pretty for the Orioles, and even Tillman himself may be pitching above his capabilities, as he sports a 4.23 FIP.

The Athletics reportedly asked the Red Sox for Anderson Espinoza in exchange for Rich Hill, but Boston instead sent Espinoza to San Diego for Drew Pomeranz. Oakland’s asking price is certainly a steep one, but it makes sense that they would want so much for a starter who has accumulated a 2.25 ERA and 10.7 K/9 rate through 76 innings in 2016. Hill would be a welcome addition to the Baltimore rotation, but only if they can avoid parting with top prospect Hunter Harvey. A couple of next level prospects, however, may be enough to get a deal done, as Oakland knows that it needs to cash in on Hill before he becomes a free agent at season’s end. Max even covered a possible A’s-O’s trade match back in May.

Please visit Off The Bench to continue reading Alex Vacca’s post about what the Rays, Blue Jays and Yankees Should Do Next.

Today is the worst day of the year. A day we all fear in the weeks that precede it, and shudder to recall in the weeks that follow. Today, the day after the All-Star game, is the Day Without Baseball.

I know,  there are other days without baseball– every day from November through late February, for instance– but today is worse: it’s a Day Without Sports. There is no baseball, no football, no basketball, no big time college sports, and not even any hockey. There is nothing; only darkness.

Don’t turn on SportsCenter. There is nothing. (Unless you care to watch Marcellus Wiley opine on the state of the Buffalo Bills’ interior defensive line and how they might fare if it snows during their Week 4 matchup or some such nonsense.) SportsCenter is dead. Without sport, can there be a SportCenter?

For years I’ve dreaded this day, but over time I’ve developed some sure fire strategies for weathering the storm and making it until Friday when baseball’s second half finally begins. Today, I will let you in on 8 of my secrets, and with a little luck, we’ll get through this long night together.

1. Read a baseball blog: Look at this! You’ve already done this one! Great start. Reading baseball blogs is a great way to avoid the misery of not watching actual baseball. Blogs, like Off the Bench, provide thought-provoking analysis that will keep you occupied until first pitch tomorrow. Sometimes they even offer clever survival guides like this one. Go ahead and bookmark our site to be sure to enjoy our insight even on Days with Baseball.
2. Play OOTP: OOTP Baseball is hands down the best baseball simulator available. Every year, the guys over at OOTP send us a new copy to review and every year it blows us away. Want to test a theory that no team should ever sign a player to a contract longer than 3 season? Go for it. Want to fix a crappy real life team? Have at it. Want to pretend it’s 1871 and see what an inaugural baseball draft is like? Here you go. OOTP is a great way to get your baseball fix.
3. Make a baseball out of….

Please visit the (mostly) baseball blog to find out other important strategies for surviving baseball’s darkest day.

Straight off the heels of their scandal of signing international amateur prospects against Major League Baseball rules, the Commissioner’s Office has set yet another ban to the Boston Red Sox disallowing the team from signing fat, crappy players for a full calendar year.

The Red Sox nearly violated the widely known rules against a team signing too many fat, crappy players when they signed third baseman Pablo Sandoval. “We realize what signing too many fat, crappy players can do to the competitive balance of the league,” said Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred. “If an organization has free rein to sign as many tubby lards as they want, then it gives all the other teams an unfair advantage to outrun, out endure, and just stay hydrated enough to finish a baseball game.”

Manfred added, “Luckily, Sandoval injured his shoulder so the other teams wouldn’t get too much of an edge.” Commissioner Manfred then impressively scarfed down an entire bowl of chili.

The penalty came as a surprise to the Red Sox organization. Some players praised the move, like current third baseman Travis Shaw.

“I’m just glad we have room on the bus to sit in our own seats because when some of our old fat, crappy players were on the team bus, there were only 25 seats on the bus, filling our 25-man-roster, and since our fattest, crappiest player took up two seats I had to stand,” Shaw said.

To continue reading about this very real baseball story that’s not at all satire, please visit our mostly baseball blog.

The 2016 baseball season is well underway and we’re seeing an even more drastic version of the trends that we saw last year: There are more strikeouts, more homeruns, and more challenges. And, notably, there has also been a steady increase in velocity across the league, assisted by the guys I’ll be highlighting here.

A “steady increase in velocity” might not be reason to stop the presses, but just soak in this Tweet real quick:

We’re basically seeing twice as many pitches thrown 95+ as we were in 2008. ¡2008!

Even left handers, typically a step behind (always a bit of a quirky species, lefties), are chucking it. Across the league, lefties are throwing the ball 95+ mph just around 7.5% of the time. That’s way more often the stereotype of the Tom Glavine-type, soft-tossing, corner-nibbler would have you believe, but it’s 2016 and elite velocity isn’t just left to the elite pitchers anymore (Chris Sale is joined in that 95+ lefty fastball club by some guy named Buddy Boshers out of the bullpen for the Twins).

So… I’m not just interested in guys that throw hard; I want guys who throw hard and make the ball move, and I want them to be left handed. (Truth: that lefty requirement is mostly an excuse so I can hopefully talk about Danny Duffy more, James Paxton for the first time, and because I already covered the right handed side of things with my Charlie Morton post from the start of the season (The Unbelievable Emergence of Charlie Morton), and basically because lefty’s are more fun.)

A common refrain among pitching coaches is that movement is just as important as velocity. Velocity can get you to the majors, but big league hitters will turn around 95+ fast if it’s straight. But when combined with some movement (and even better, control/command) 95+ is a high value commodity.

I’m after what I want to dub the best lefty fastball. Let’s start with the simple stuff: Who out there is throwing it 95+ most frequently? Note that the percentages here are for all pitches thrown, including the off-speed stuff.

To Continue Reading About the golden age of the lefty fastball, visit Off The Bench.