The National League is a very top heavy league with the Nats, Dodgers, Cardinals and Pirates having the best odds to qualify for the postseason in 2015. With parity at an all time high in the Senior Circuit, we may see a squad break the worst record ever to qualify for the playoffs as a Wild Card seed this campaign.  The AL is not as big with the dominant clubs, and as such will have many teams hover around 90 wins that make the postseason.  With the AL winning the Interleague matchup for 10 years consecutive, you also have to factor in a few more W’s per team.

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With all due respect to the rest of the Senior Circuit clubs, the Nationals and Dodgers are heads above the rest of the league.  I am also throwing in stalwart franchise St. Louis and Pittsburgh (94 wins and 88 wins in the last 2 years) as other teams that should lock down the NL Central and the other 1 to win the 1st Wild Card – to round out the top 4 seeds in the NL.

Then there are the rest of the clubs.

From the surface odds wise, the gambling pundits are saying the Padres and Giants would be next on the list for wins, followed by the Mets, Cubs and Marlins.

Just below those last 5 teams, you have the fight for competing coming from Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and finally the teams most thought to struggle this campaign are the Rockies, D’Backs and the Phillies.

I believe Washington is going to run away from the rest of the league – and near 100 victories. The Dodgers while not as talented as they have been the last few seasons, should not have a problem topping 90 wins again with their Starting Rotation being so strong.

The Pirates did lose Russell Martin and Edinson Volquez, but you have to think bringing A.J. Burnett back replaces Volquez, and the internal improvements from Gregory Polanco, and a return to power from Pedro Alvarez should be enough to compensate for that.

When it comes down to my final prognostication for the Division, I may just jot the Bucs down to win the Division.  Josh Harrison and Neil Walker at 3B and 2B, and if they receive anything from their Starting Catcher and Shortstop then look the hell out.

Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte also help Polanco round out the Outfield, and I think by the end of the year, they will be pronounced the best trio of players beyond the Infield, rather than the Marlins or Padres.

With the competition level at an all time high in the Junior Circuit as well, they might not break the 88 wins barrier either for 1 (of not 2) clubs that will gain entrance into the playoffs at season’s end. I expect the 2 squads out of the AL to not match the lowest total of the NL though.

The ‘Zombie Cardinals’ always find a way to compete – as their 4 straight NLCS Appearances show, so it would be foolhardy to say they wont grace us with their presence in the playoffs for one more year in 2015.

Then it comes to Interleague. where the American League beats up the National League, robbing them of 30 victories from their play.  I fully expect the ‘Junior Circuit’ to win the yearly rivalry for an 11th straight season.

With the injury to Hunter Pence, and the usual malaise the San Francisco club usually has following their previous championship years, they will be hard pressed to round up a playoff spot this season, although they should find a way to stick in the race.

Miami would have a better chance with a full season from  Jose Fernandez, but once their ace is back into the fold near the ALL – Star Break, they may have one of best squads in the 2nd half of the MLB Calendar.  Still think they will hover around .500 clip.

The Cubs should be right around the .500 mark by the time the year is complete.  It would be a mistake if they held Kris Bryant down in my view, and with the parity of the league this year, they should just keep him with the big club.  He can potentially make the difference.

Cincinnati and Milwaukee have decent offenses, depth on their pitching staffs, and should be near mediocrity all season long.  If Jay Bruce and Joey Votto have bounce back efforts, it could mean the Reds reign in the 2nd Wild Card.

Ryan Braun is the key to the Brew Crew, however the club lost Yovani Gallardo and Marco Estrada (maybe not such a big loss), while only really adding Adam Lind.  Milwaukee also has to contend the early part of the season with Jonathan Lucroy nursing an injury.

I delved heavily into my feelings about San Diego last week, but also have to say they could play a factor in the postseason push if their talent comes to fruition.  Having Andrew Cashner yanked out of a contest already doesn’t bode well.

In the mock wins I have prepared in my National League Preview, I am giving the nod to the New York Mets for the 2nd Wild Card (with 82 wins).  Yep you read that last part right.

I may change these totals before the 1st pitch on Apr.5, 2015, yet if everyone stays with the same roster

Matt Harvey back in to the mix, along with the strong Starting Pitching should boost New York over ,500 for the 1st time in the Citi Field era.  Michael Cuddyer adds enough thump, and will David Wright is probably not an offensive superstar anymore, I fully think he will be a solid veteran presence, with a nice Batting Average, OBP, and run producer.

Curtis Granderson should be better the 2nd time through the NL, and I like him coming off a full healthy season.  Not sure Lucas Duda will repeat his power output, however the team’s pitching will be good from top to bottom.

I like the Mets to also pummel the Phillies a lot this year to fatten up their record, and I would take their rotation hands down over the Marlins (without Fernandez to start until mid-year) and the Braves will still have a tough time manufacturing runs.

For those reasons, I have Washington with 100 wins, and the Mets to improve 3 victories from 2014.  If they can find a Shortstop midway through the year via trade, their win total could increase.

For the record, 82 Wins would equal the lowest total every to qualify for the postseason with both the Padres featuring an 82 – 80 record to win the NL West in 2005 – and the New York Mets with a 82 – 79 mark in 1974, (aside from Strike or Lockout Shortened seasons), which is one less than the 2006 World Series Champion Cards, who reeled in the NL Central Division title 1st with a 83 – 78 mark, (only the Astros (84 – 78 in 1997), Cubs (85 – 77 in 2008) and Twins (85 – 77 in 1987) have won Divisions with 85 wins or fewer other than  the Red – Birds and Padres.

Of course, should the 1994 Strike not occurred at all, the AL West winners would have probably had the 1st and perhaps only losing record ever for a playoff team.  At the time of the season end the Rangers were ahead of the Division at 52 – 62. Oakland was in 2nd at 51 – 63, Seattle was 3rd at 49 – 63, with the then California Angels trailing the field at 47 – 68.  Texas would have had to go 30 – 20 in their last 50 contests to ensure a winning season.

The Wild Card mark of less wins than everyone goes to several teams pulling into the postseason with 88 victories, including the 2015 Fall Classic Champs (SF)  and their Bay Area AL brethren A’s had 88 wins last season as well, as did the Pirates on the NL side. The 2006 Dodgers, and the Baltimore Orioles in 1996 are other squads to only collect 88 victories and make the playoffs.

The last team to mention is the 2012 Cardinals reeled in that same number of victories as the 2nd Wild Card club though in the inaugural year of the 2nd team qualifying for the postseason, and knocked out an 94 win Braves club in the 1st ever Wild Card one game play down in the Senior Circuit.

It is safe to say that the futility record will definitely be passed in the coming seasons with the advent of the 2nd team making it in for both leagues, and the growing amount of parity.  I would be shocked if the NL doesn’t surpass it this year.

My projected 2015 wins in the NL (as of now)

I may change these totals before the 1st pitch on Apr.5, 2015, yet if everyone stays with the same rosters.

1.  Nationals – 100 (NL East Winner)

2.  Pirates – 90 (NL Central Winner)

3.  Dodgers – 89 (NL West Winner)

4.  Cardinals – 88 (1st Wild Card)

5.  Mets – 82 (2nd Wild Card)

T6. Cubs – 80

T6. Giants – 80

T6,  Marlins – 80

9.  Brewers – 79

10  Reds – 78

11.  Braves – 77

12. Padres – 75 (yes I know, bold right.)

13.  Rockies – 71

14.  D’Backs – 70

15.  Phillies 62

Since the inception of the Wild Card Berths in 1995, no team has ever won fewer than 88 games. That mark should fall very soon.

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A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.

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