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The Royals continue to shock the world with newfound power and late inning heroics, Based their 5th straight playoff win, they took a 1 – 0 ALCS advantage on the Baltimore Orioles in last nights contest for the ALCS.

I woke up this morning to see they are the new favorite to win the World Series at +210.  The Cards are 2nd at +250, Giants are 3rd at +280, and bringing up the rears are the O’s at +333.

Furthermore to our point of drastic odds change with one game, the Royals are now -170 favorites to the win the American League Championship Series, compared to the Orioles +150 odd.

If you wanted to bet Baltimore, the time for value is right now.  Kansas City will lose a game eventually, and the time to pounce is probably today.  Of course I have been saying that about the Royals all postseason, but the odd is inviting for Baltimore.

His curve and changeup both are well above big league average pitches and could help lift Ventura to ace level status int he near future. The rookie pitcher rebounded a lot better in the role of Starter in the ALDS round versus the Angels, as oppose to coming out of the Bullpen, serving up a tater trot to Brandon Moss in the AL wildcard game.  I like his hit and miss stuff, and he has the ability to avoid the long ball.

The Game today in the ALCS, the starters are Yordano Ventura +112 @ Bud Norris -122.  So here is an idea for you to consider.  Place $40 on the Orioles to win the ALCS, for a profit of $60.

To counteract a catastrophic loss in tonight game, place a $36 bet on KC tonight, to win $76.32

If Ventura wins the game, you win $0.32 cents, and still have a chance for Baltimore to win 4 of the next 5 games.  However if the O’s win the match, you have $76 for total stake, but can win the $100 wager for the ALCS series ($24.00 profit).

Seriously, this game should be favored in KC’s favor, as Ventura is a flamethrower who can definitely shutdown the Orioles offense.  I just am not buying stock in the Bud Norris train.

If Baltimore goes down 0 – 2 tonight, they still have a shot to win the ALCS, because I think once the Royals taste a defeat once, it could spawn a few more losses.

The website made a mistake on this line.  Norris splits in 2014 suggests he has a tougher time with LHB, with a 3 slash line allowed of .255/.331/.424 this year, compared to a .659 OPS against RHB, and KC will be sending up hot hitting Lefty hitters: Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.

Norris is 0 – 1, with a 1.23 ERA against KC this year, however he only fanned 1 batter for the contest in 7.1 IP worth of work.  Yes the former Astros hurler, has fared well on home turf, yielding a 2.44 ERA in 13 Game Starts, and also has fashioned a 2.08 in Sept/Oct.  I think he is due for a loss.

Yordano Ventura started 2 games against the O’s this year. going  1 – 1 , with a 1.26 ERA – and fanned 17 hitters in 14.2 Frames of work. In those innings, the 23 Year Old only surrendered 1 HR, which is something the Baltimore squad needs to win this evening.

In a game that is relatively close with the starters, I like the underdog value here.

Has a better ERA on the road (2.22) than home (4.03) in 2014, plus has a career 2.96 ERA, even with the Cardinals blowing him up in the 2012 NLCS, with 8 ER in his start there.  But he is older and wiser than he was two years ago.  He authored a 3.00 ERA versus the Cards in 2 game starts, with only allowing 3 hits and zero runs in his start at Busch Stadium.

I am not wagering the St. Louis and San Francisco game tonight, however if you are interested the odds/pitching matchup are as follows:  Madison Bumgarner +111 @ Adam Wainwright -121.

Again, if I were to put cabbage down on a club, I might choose Bumgarner and the Giants because I am not convinced Waino is 100%.

Whoever loses this game, I will be placing a wager on the other team to win the NLCS tomorrow when the odds are spiked in the favor of the team possessing the 1 – 0 lead.

The odds for the NLCS series are:  STL – 130, SF +110 

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***

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A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.

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