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Friday, June.28th/2013

James Shields has turned in a workman like effort for the Royals – only to have received little run support to help him with his Won – Loss Record. With the Trade having going down seemingly to correct each other main ailments with the Rays needing offense and the Royals needing defense, it has worked for both teams yet exposed a weakness that used to be a strength in the process. The Rays have done it for the majority without Myers – where as Shields is on pace for another 200+ IP. Now the Royals can’t hit and the Rays pitching has gone south. One is left to wonder – what if the trade never took place?

By Michael McGraw ( Royals Correspondent) Follow @quickdraw29

It just will not go away.  The risky trade orchestrated by General Manager Dayton Moore this past offseason between the Royals and Rays deserves revisiting with Tampa Bay’s recent call-up of Wil Myers, the fourth-overall prospect according to MLB.com. 

Admittedly, the ultimate victor of the trade will not be decided for years, as it most likely hinges upon Myers’ development and ascension as a player. 

However, with virtually half of the 2013 season completed and looking at the now instead of the future, and this deal was undoubtedly for the now from the Royals perspective, the early returns are slanted in favor of the Royals. 

Wil Myers 1st HR (Grand Slam Versus the New York Yankees)

Through June 27, the Royals record stood at 36-40, placing them in 3rd place in the A.L. Central Division, 5.5 games behind the division-leading Tigers. After a dismal May, the Royals have rebounded in June with a 14-10 record through the first four weeks of the month. Comparatively, the Rays sat at 41 -38 placing them in 4th place in the competitive A.L. East.

To recap the trade from last December, the Royals sent prospects Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery, and Patrick Leonard to the Rays in exchange for Shields, Wade Davis, and Elliot Johnson.    

Although Davis and Odorizzi were important components of the deal, the material consideration was Shields–for-Myers. 

Shields, 31, has pitched at least 200 innings for the past 6 seasons, one of only 5 players to do so (along with Mark Buehrle, Matt Cain, CC Sabathia, and Justin Verlander). 

Myers, 22, had a fantastic 2012 minor league season across the Royals’ AA and AAA affiliates, posting a .314 average, 37 homers, and 109 RBI. 

Looking at the trade’s 2013 return for the Royals, all of which has come at the major league level, Shields has performed exactly as expected. 

Despite a 2-6 record through June 27th that is reflective of the Royals’ offensive struggles (Shields’ run support of 3.3 runs/game is sixth-fewest in the league), Shields has compiled a 2.92 ERA, 1.162 WHIP, and 2 complete games in his 16 starts. 

His 111 innings are 3rd in the league (only 5.2 behind league leader Felix Hernandez), he has pitched at least 6 innings in all of his starts except for his last outing (which was still 5 IP), and is winless in June despite only giving up 10 total earned runs in 5 Game Starts.

Davis has been inconsistent but has shown glimpses of being a reliable starter.  Although the owner of a 4-5 record, 4.94 ERA, and a chunky 1.714 WHIP in 15 games started, Davis’ season has contained solid stretches. 

Davis began the year by giving up four earned runs in his first started, but he promptly followed that performance with two scoreless starts. 

Davis then experienced a rough streak by giving up eight earned runs to the Indians, seven to the Yankees, and six to the Rangers over his next run of games through the end of May, before settling down in June and giving up only four combined earned runs over his last three starts.

Johnson’s production has been about what the Royals expected.  Being a versatile player, Johnson has played at second, third, short, and designated hitter, compiling a .226 average with 2 homeruns and 9 RBI in 131 at-bats. 

From the Rays’ perspective, Wil Myers was promoted to the majors on June 17, which should put him past the Super-Two arbitration deadline.  Myers began with a relatively slow start at AAA Durham before finishing with a .286 average, 14 homers, and an .876 OPS in 252 at-bats.

Myers’ June performance preceding his call-up included a .377 average, 5 homers, 14 RBI, and 1.073 OPS in 56 at-bats.  In limited action so far this year at the major league level, Myers has accumulated his first couple of big-league homers.

Much like Myers, Odorizzi has spent most of the year at AAA, where he was 5-1 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and impressive 9.8 K/9 innings.  In three starts with the struggling and injured Rays’ rotation, Odorizzi has no decisions with a 6.00 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

The once-heralded prospect Montgomery is 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA at Durham, and Leonard is hitting .208 with 3 homers and a .580 OPS through 221 at-bats for low-A Bowling Green.   

The addition of Shields to the Royals has been a key factor in the club being 2nd in the league in staff ERA at 3.75 behind the Detroit Tigers vaunted Starting Aces (3.68).  The Shields-Myers trade, along with the acquisition of Ervin Santana and re-signing of Jeremy Guthrie, were all aimed at improving the pitching so that the team could win now.

Those moves have improved the rotation and constructed a reliable group; however, the offense has been a massive disappointment, being the third-lowest scoring team in the league and producing only 38 homeruns, by far the lowest in the American League. 

It is hard to imagine that Myers would have significantly affected the offense up to this point, as it is rare in baseball’s current economic structure for top prospects to start the year on the big-league club due to the possibility of commencing the arbitration timeline, although the Royals no doubt would have faced considerable scrutiny to have Myers on their team with their offensive struggles.

While the trade has helped solidify the Royals rotation, the Rays are the inverse of the Royals: they are the fifth-highest scoring team in the American League but are thirteenth in the league in staff ERA (4.20). 

Last year in the second half of the year – the Rays sported a 2.60 Team ERA and their Starters carried an overall ERA of 3.34 for the entire season.

The Rays starters have thrown no complete games, have a 4.38 ERA through June 27 – and have been infected with injuries, all while obtaining significant run support. 

Jeremy Hellickson is 6 -3 with a 5.11 ERA while receiving the 4th most runs per game (6.0/game) in the league, and Matt Moore is 10 -3 but has a 3.95ERA, receiving the 10th most runs per game (5.5 runs/game).

The Rays best starter this season, Alex Cobb, is currently on the disabled list after taking a ball off his head, and reigning A.L. Cy Young winner David Price has been disabled since mid-May, up to which point he was 1-4 with a 5.24 ERA.

Despite this underwhelming staff, the Rays sat at two games over .500 after the first three weeks of June.  What could they use to cure this inconsistent, underperforming, and injured staff? 

That’s right, James Shields!

Sure, Myers might turn out to be an incredible offensive force for the Rays.  He has done nothing in his minor league days to indicate otherwise; but in terms of right now and winning this season, the Rays needed Shields. 

Shields provides exactly what the Rays are lacking with their current staff: consistently, durability, and production.   He has already thrown two complete games himself in 2013 to zero by the entire Rays’ staff. 

He has not missed a start in 2013 and has made exactly 33 starts every single year for the past five years.  If he continues his current pace and makes his perennial 33 starts, Shields will throw 233.2 innings in 2013.

The Rays decided that their young starters were ready to take that next step and carry the team, along with Price’s professional presence.  However, Hellickson has regressed, Price has been injured, and the Rays need more April and May-Moore and less of the June-Moore. 

Not only could the Rays desperately use Shields, but it might be easy to forget the impact Davis had on their bullpen in 2012.  Davis proved to be a steady force in relief, compiling a 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 11.1 K/9 innings.

Although it is hard to fault the Rays strategy, considering all signs pointed to the team having a solid pitching staff even without Shields, it is inarguable that the exact cure to their problems would be to have James Shields atop their rotation.   

There is no question that the full impact of the trade cannot be evaluated for years.  However, in the interim, if the Royals offense improves, Davis continues his recent run of good starts, and Shields continues to be Shield-like, the early returns on the Shields-Myers trade look to favor the Royals in this 2013 season. 

This result could also have changed if the Rays would have had Wil Myers on the big club for the whole year – and he helped the team like he has done the last 10 games. 

Sure the team was Shutout by R.A. Dickey on Wednesday, however they stopped Toronto’s 11 Game Winning Streak by taking 2 out of 3 – after they took the last game of the series versus the Yankees.

Myers is 7 – 20 (.350 BA) in his last 5 Games – with 2 HRs and 6 RBI.  He almost single-handedly won the game for the Rays last Saturday versus the Yankees, with his 1st Career HR in the late innings – but the Bullpen coughed up the lead. 

The Rays could have reaped the benefits of his services earlier in the year – when they were trotting out light hitting Sam Fuld ( .179 BA – with 2 HRs and 8 RBI in 95 AB)and Sean Rodriguez (.235 BA – with 2 HRs and 11 RBI in 85 AB). 

The Rays lose this Trade so far because of the decision to leave Myers in the Minors alone.  Now all will also be forgotten in Tampa Bay if they come back to win the AL East Division – and especially if KC doesn’t make the playoffs either with or without that because they have Myers under team control until 2019 – and Shields is a Free Agent after 2014. 

If you would like to hear further information about Myers, listen to a Podcast Segment that MLB Reports Owner Chuck Booth did recently on the 2 And A Hook Podcast Here 2ANDAHOOK #9  (20 Minute Mark or so).

He firmly believes that the Tampa Bay Rays made a colossal error in not having Wil Myers up earlier in the Major Leagues – and it could cost the team a playoff spot in the process.

While there are other players involved in this trade as well, it will always be judged based on Myers (TB Career) – versus Shields (2013 and 2014 seasons for KC). So far Myers has a 3 Slash Line of .268/.268/.725 with 2 HRs (including a GS for his 1st roundtripper) and 8 RBI. Would the Royals have brought him up to start the 2013 campaign – instead of the Rays waiting for him to full under the “Super 2” for service time? Did the Rays make the wrong decision in keeping Myers down in Durham until Mid- June. All of these questions may take some time.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com or their partners.***

A big thank-you goes out to our ”Royals Correspondent’ Michael McGraw. Michael was born and resides in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and graduated from Duquesne University with a Bachelor of Arts in English, Media Communication, and Sociology.  After working in management for a communications company, he is now attending the Duquesne University School of Law. 

A dedicated Pirates fan, Michael also became a Royals fan due to his family ties in the Kansas City area and frequent trips to the City of Fountains.  Although Fred McGriff is his favorite player, Michael grew up following George Brett and Bo Jackson and maintains hopes for his dream World Series matchup of the Pirates – Royals. Follow @quickdraw29

Please e-mail me  at: mlbreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback.   To subscribe to our website and have the Daily Reports sent directly to your inbox, click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.

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