Monday, September.10/2012

Note from Chuck Booth:  I am attempting to bring the history for each of the 30 MLB Franchises into a 5 part series that will focus on 1. The teams history.  2. The hitters 3. The pitchers. 4. The Teams Payroll going into 2013 and 5.The Ball Park that they play in. (The stadium articles will all be done next summer when I go to all of the parks in under a month again.)  Be sure to check my author page with a list of all of  my archived articles section here.

The Blue Jays have not qualified for the Playoffs since they won Back to Back World Series in 1992 and 1993. At that time, they were around the top of the MLB Payroll for all teams. How much will they spend in 2013?

Chuck Booth (Lead Baseball Writer): Follow @chuckbooth3024

It has been a disastrous season for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2012.  Only the Boston Red Sox can usurp them in the AL East for being more disappointing.  It is not entirely anyone’s fault, injuries to many key pitchers-plus the loss of Jose Bautista just after the All-Break, crippled the team’s ability to compete.  Just chalk up the season to unlucky.  Fortunately for the Blue Jays, Alex Anthopoulos has kept the team flexible with the payroll going forward.  I still think that getting out of the Vernon Wells and Alex Rios contracts was the biggest ‘Houdini Act’ of the New Millennium.  Since he got out from under those contracts, only Joey Bats makes more than 10 Million Dollars now on the club.  To contend in the AL East, the Jays will need to spend at least 100-110 Million Dollars.  The core of the team is intact for a couple of more years.  From 2013-2016 is the clubs best window to make a charge at the playoffs and have some success.

Perhaps the best move that the Blue Jays GM did this year was to lock up Edwin Encarnacion to a 3 YR/27 Million Dollar contract before he hit the Free Agency Market.  In a downtrodden year, EE could have requested an arm and leg for his services and been obliged.  He left between 8-10 Million Dollars on the Table in my opinion.  The keys will be to lock up a couple of their young player to long-term contracts.  The catching looks solid (Arencibia and Mathis) for years to come with some more prospects filtering through the Minor Leagues (Travis D’arnaurd.)  Trading away Eric Thames and Travis Snider paved the way for the club to lock-up Colby Rasmus long-term-and maybe take a run at a power hitting Outfielder.  The team’s starting pitching must heal up from multiple Tommy John Surgeries and come back to be relevant.  The team should definitely be players for free agent pitchers.  

For Part 1 of a 7 Part Article Series:  The Toronto Blue Jays Franchise 1977-1993, click here

For Part 7 of the 7 Part Series:  Blue Jays 2013 Team Payroll:  A Readers Thoughts, Click Here:

Josh Johnson brings a career record of 56-37 (.602) to the Blue Jays lineup in 2013. With one year and 13.75 Million Dollars left on this current deal. will Toronto try and extend him or wait to see if he can stay healthy all year.

Edwin Encarnacion signed a 3 YR extension through 2015 worth at least 29 Million Dollars. Just how much would have he received if he went to Free Agency? He has hit .281 with 38 HRs and 98 RBI so far this season in 135 Games.

With Baltimore and Tampa Bay pushing New York this year, plus Boston clearing their payroll infrastructure to take a run at some free agents, it is paramount the Toronto Franchise joins the party.  It has been a good exercise in fiscal restraint to put themselves in this great position, however the time to spend a lot of money is now.  You have great value deals on Bautista, EE and Brett Lawrie has several year left on his entry-level contract.  With the 2nd Wild Card position available now, how many fans would attend the SkyDome with a playoff contending team?  As an observer, I feel they could draw and average of 30,000 fans per game if they stayed in the hunt for a playoff spot all season long.  The team’s health will dictate a lot in 2013, so the payroll value will be a vital part of that.

This trade with the Marlins is the perfect time to go for it.  Additions to the Payroll via the trade are highlighted and in BOLD Maroon Colors.  I will be writing a big piece on this trade on Wed Nov.14.  Please check out the article.

Top Toronto Blue Jays Payroll 2013 in Millions Signed Players:

1.  Jose Bautista  RF/3B (14.0)  Signed until 2015, Free Agent 2017.

2.  Josh Johnson SP:  (13.8)  Signed until 2013, Free Agent in 2014.

3.  Mark Buehrle SP:  (11.0)  Signed until 2015, Free Agent in 2016.

4.  Jose Reyes SS:  (10.0)  Signed until 2017, Team Option in 2018 for 22 Million or a $4M Buyout.

5.  Edwin Encarnacion 1B/DH: (9.0)  Signed until 2015.

6.  Brandon Morrow SP: (8.0)  Signed until 2015.

7.  Ricky Romero  SP: (7.8) Signed until 2015.

8.  John Buck C:   (6.0)  Signed through 2013, Free Agent in 2014.

9.  Adam Lind 1B/DH/OF (5.2) Signed until 2013.

10.  Casey Janssen  RP  (3.9)  Signed through 2014.

11.  Maicer Izturis  INF:  (3.0)  Signed through 2015, Free Agent in 2016.

12.  Sergio Santos RP  (2.8)  Signed through 2014 with 3 club option from 2015-2017.  750K buyout in any year.

Not a Player but (5.0)  Million as Compensation for the Vernon Wells contract to LAA and is the last year they have to pay it.

These 12 players equal 99.5 Million which is significantly up from the 9 Players and 62.7 Million Dollars for this category before  the Marlins Trade of player salary and the Izturis signing last week.. This is 36.8 Million in additional contracts You have to hope that Adam Lind can regain form to his 30 HR/100 RBI ways out of the DH slot.  Without this kind of production, the Jays can say good-bye to the playoffs.   Romero needs to forget about 2012 altogether and come in fresh for 2013.  At least with your top 2 guys, (barring FA signings) they are actually great valued salaries for their production.  You can bank on about 70-80 HRs, 190-200 RBI and a high walk rate with Encarnacion and Bautista combined.

Club Options for 2013:

13. Darren Oliver  RP  (3.0)

14. Rajai Davis  OF  (3.0)

I think you sign Davis as your 4th outfielder who plays a great speed role.  He is injury insurance for your top 3 OF.  I would pass on Oliver and find a lefty in your system to take over.  Specialists are nice to have, but to pay for them throughout the whole year is not necessary.  You can always trade for one next year.  Save the Salary Dollars.

Arbitration Eligible and what they earned in Millions for 2012:

15.  Colby Rasmus  CF  (2.7)

16.  J.A. Happ  SP  (2.4)

17.  Emilio Bonifacio 2B/3B/SS/OF (2.3)

19.  Aaron Laffey (800 K)

20.  Brett Cecil  (443 K)

21.. Scott Richmond  SP (409 K)***

Now is the perfect time to sign Colby Rasmus to a 4-5 year deal around the 5-6 Million Dollar Range per year, if he can improve each year, you are talking about a CF with 30 HR capability.  He needs to be more patient at the plate, in order to draw more walks.  J.A Happ you could also get for a decent price now.  I would walk away from 2 of the remaining pitchers and probably Scott Richmond and Jesse Litsch.  Laffey and Cecil are good depth pitchers when the others return.  For 5 players in this category, you can project to pay around 15 Million Dollars now next year with Bonifacio added to bring the Payroll up to 114.5 Million after this category.

 Unrestricted Free Agents After 2012 and Their 2012 salary in Millions:

22.  Kelly Johnson  2B  (6.4)

23.  Brandon Lyon  RP  (5.5)

18.  Jesse Litsch  (1.0)   Litsch refused an assignment to the Triple A affiliate in Buffalo (Oct) and is now a Free Agent.

24.  Jason Frasor  RP  (3.8)

25.  Carlos Villanueva  SP  (2.3)

26.  Dustin McGowan  SP (600 K)

With the big trade with the Marlins, the Blue Jays have added so much starting pitching depth, they will not need any SP in the Market.  They should not re-sign any of these players.  If they need a relief pitcher during next year, they can always trade for one near the Trade Deadline

Pre-Arbitration Eligible Players/Entry Level Contracts-League :

27.  J.P. Arencibia  C  (490 K)

28.  Kyle Drabek  SP (486 K)

29.  Brett Lawrie  3B (483 K)

30.  Steve Delabar  RP (481 K)

31.  Aaron Loup  RP

32.  Luiz Perez  SP/RP

33.  Brad Lincoln  SP/RP

34.  Robert Coello  RP  

These 10 players will make Approximately 5 Million Dollars next year. So you are at 119.5 Million now.

Free Agency: 

Willie Bloomquist  would be a nice fit with this club considering his versatility of playing the infield or the outfield.  Since the Jays have already added so much with the 6 players added versus the 4 outgoing entry level contracts and the Yunel Escobar contract, they do not need much.   On the lower end, how about Rick Ankiel as a 5th Outfielder, PH for National League Games?  This would cost you next to nothing and he can play the 5th OF role and you let Davis steal 50-60 bases from the staring lineup.   Bottom line is they should spend about 17-18 Million on a INF, SP and OF, however they get to this number will be random.  You can sign 2-3 decent septh guys or wait to trade for a player in the season and have his contract only pro-rated for the rest of the year.

Bottom line Payroll Forecast for 2013: 125-130 Million Dollars. This is up from the original post projection of 100-105 Million Dollars.

Payroll 2012:  75 Million

For Part 1 of a 7 Part Article Series:  The Toronto Blue Jays Franchise 1977-1993, click here

For Part 7 of the 7 Part Series:  Blue Jays 2013 Team Payroll:  A Readers Thoughts, Click Here:

Despite missing over 45 games already, Jose Bautista still leads the MLB in HRs since the beginning of play in 2010. Prior to 2011, he signed a 5 YR/65 Million Dollar Contract with the Club.

 *** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com ***

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